Money Multiplier Takes Over Top Spot

Prestige, continuing to be hampered by low sales, has surrendered the top spot to Money Multiplier which sold 3% of its float this past week with out surrendering a top prize. The game presently returns $.103 of every dollar to the remaining grand prize winners (3rd best) and has the best remaining top prizes, as compared to when the game started, of any game. The only problem is that only 25% of the games float remains to be sold. I'm having trouble finding tickets.

Best Rated Games

1. Money Multiplier (25%)
2. Prestige (64%)
3. Frogger (15%)
4. Classic White (9%)
5. $200 Million (56%)

Note: I am advising against Frogger and Classic White as many of each games best secondary prizes have all been claimed.

Games to Avoid

1. Cash Blast (23%)
2. Cashingo (11%)
3. Crossword 3203 (7%)
4. Monopoly (80%)
5. Peppermint (82%)

Note: Cash Blast should have been retired according to the OLG's own policy. Lets see how long it takes for them to do so.

$1 - $2 Game Update

As from Fast 200's, Cross Xpress, Cherry Jubilee, and Stock Stuff are all reasonable choices.

$3 Game Update

Holly Jolly is the best rated game in this area, once Frogger is discounted.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Money Multiplier rates too highly for me to recommend any other games.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Avoid Cash Blast and Instant Gift Pack. The remaining three games are all good.

Comings and Goings

$5 Cash In was introduced this past week. It's a good game. 8.2% of the total revenue goes to winners of $100 or more. The 7 Grand Prizes of $100,000 appeals to me. Your chances to win one are 354,000:1 at present.

Personal Play

I bought two $200 Million tickets this past week and both were winners: total winnings = $60. My Year to date figures barely budged.

An interesting comment from Trinitron on last weeks blog informed us that Lotto Max was an interesting investment with the 50 supplementary $1 million prizes. Your odds to win one were only 500,000:1. Pretty good. I note that after looking at the results that fully 30 of those 50 prizes were not won. It's a tough game.

My last entry for the year 2013 will come as close to the end of the year as possible. It will benchmark me for the beginning of 2014. Merry Christmas!

Doug

It's Still Prestige - Unfortunately

Prestige continued with its slow sales but did not reveal a Grand Prize. As a result, it  has edged further up the rating system. Money Multiplier has continued to close and is now very close to Prestige in the ratings. Prestige currently offers one chance in 940,000 to win $1 Million for your $10 investment. By comparison, Money Multiplier offers one chance in 216,000 to win $100,000 for your $5 investment. It's a tough call.

Top Rated Games

1. Prestige (64%)
2. Money Multiplier (28%)
3. Frogger (15%)
4. Classic White (9%)
5. $200 Million (56%)

Even though Frogger and Classic White are on this list, I would recommend avoiding these games as the secondary prizes are hollowed out. Frogger has none of its $10,000 second prizes available. You can either get the one $75,000 or the $500 third prize. Classic White has none of the $100,000, $50,000, nor $10,000 prizes left. You can either win the one $500,000 outstanding grand prize or the next best prize of $1000. Not a good proposition for your $10.

Games to Avoid

1. Cash Blast (23%)
2. Cashingo (13%)
3. Crossword 3203 (7%)
4. Crossword 3202 (16%)
5. Peppermint (88%)

Comings and Goings

Praise the heavens - Keno 1410 is no more! After an entire year of being on the market, during most of which it was a game to avoid, the OLG has finally decided to retire the 17% of the float that remained. Thank goodness I don't have to rail about the game anymore. Cross Tripler 1743 also met its end over the course of the past week. It had one Grand Prize left at the time of its demise but I had it rated as only a middling game.

No new games were introduced.

Personal Play

I got sick of beating my head exclusively against the Prestige wall. I bought one Prestige ticket and 4 Money Multipliers. The result was one $5 win for Money Multiplier. Annoying. I am now very close to my expected financial result and slightly ahead in the cash rate.

Readers have been messaging me that they have been having success with $200 Million. It is a well rated game and its cash rate is excellent but, as reader Jay points out, it is much harder to buy a single $20 - $200 Million ticket than it is to buy 2 - $10 Prestige tickets. It's true! Some psychology major should study why that is. It defies logic but there is no denying that it is the case. Next week I'm switching to $200 Million to see if I can switch things up.

Ryan has messaged me about a seller near him that was well stocked in Crossword 3203, Horseshoes, Cash Blast, Cash For Life 1662 and a few Prestige tickets. My goodness! With the exception of Prestige, those are all terrible choices. It almost makes me think that the great OLG brain in the sky has been asking sellers to actively flog those losers. I hate thinking that way.

Given that it is the Christmas Season, is it incumbent upon well informed players to advise the unsuspecting  buyer as to avoid the bad games? Maybe, but I can tell you that I have done that twice and each time the benefactor of my advice looked at me like I had horns growing out of my head.

Here's hoping that the Holiday Season brings you good luck.


Doug

Prestige Still #1 - But Not By Much

Welcome to the 100th edition of this blog. I hope that you enjoy reading it as much as I enjoy writing it. If you have any suggestions for how it could be improved, please don't hesitate to drop me a line.

Prestige remains a highly rated game but Money Multiplier is quickly closing the gap. It would not take much for the two games to reverse positions. Prestige currently is returning $.10 of every dollar spent on the game to the ten Grand Prizes left to be claimed. Your chances to snag one is just under 1 million:1. This is second only to Fast 200s that returns $.12 to its 951 unclaimed Grand Prizes of $200 each. Money Multiplier returns $.085 of every dollar to the Grand Prize winners.

Top Rated Games

1. Prestige (66%)
2. Money Multiplier (30%)
3. Frogger (15%)
4. Classic White (9%)
5. $200 Million (56%)

Games to Avoid

1. Cash Blast (24%)
2. Keno 1410 (17%)
3. Cashingo (14%)
4. Crossword 3203 (8%)
5. Monopoly (94%)

$1 - $2 Game Update

Fast 200s is a strong choice but I can understand folks who are turned off by the $200 Grand Prize. The next best game in this group is Stock Stuff.

$3 Game Update

Cashingo has become a public menace. Its a dog for which all 3 of the $25,000 second prizes have also been claimed. At present, the most you can win is $508, and there are only 18 of them. Fast 200s looks awfully good by comparison. The best game here is Frogger but be careful as only one Grand Prize remains in this game. Check with your retailer before you buy.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Money Multiplier is the best game by a significant margin, in this area. If you dislike the game for some reason, then choose freely among the other games - they are all about the same.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Cash Blast joined the "dog" list this week when its last grand Prize was claimed. Instant Gift Pack is also rated as being a poor choice given the small Grand Prize for the game ($50,000) and the small number of Grand Prizes (6). For $10, I would expect more.

Comings and Goings

Cash For Life 1162 and Bingo 3008 were retired this past week. Cash For Life was a dog of a game and Bingo 3008 had been milked to its maximum by the OLG. May they both rest in peace.

A new version of Monopoly was launched this week and immediately went to the bottom of the list due to one of it's three $75,000 prizes being claimed right away. The game will be popular but resist the temptation faithful readers - there are better choices out there.

I mentioned last week that the $10 Instant Gift Pack was launched. Players get a pouch of tickets and a voucher to get a free ticket in the 20 million ticket jumbo Crossword game. The game provides you with good odds to win a Grand Prize of 260,000:1 but you really have to pay a lot for that privilege. The game is good insofar as your likelihood to win a prize and any prize greater than the cost of the ticket, but I cannot recommend the game. If your goal is to open the packet and put a ticket in the Christmas stockings of your family members, then go ahead - you get lots of tickets for the money.

Personal Play

Four Prestige tickets contained two winners worth $30. Barely a blip to my bottom line for the year. This week I'm going to search for some Money Multiplier tickets and maybe get one Prestige ticket. I'm not winning at the game and I need a change.

Congratulations to Vic who picked up an orphan $200 Million ticket that was worth $75 this week. I'd take it. I have been watching the OLG ads for this game closely this past week. Boy do they go out of their way to avoid telling you that the ticket costs $20.

I received an interesting comment from Jay in Scarborough this week. He is vexed about the splash that the OLG made this week when it found the rightful owner of a $50 Million Lotto Max ticket that had been unclaimed for a year. He maintains that the rules require the winner to produce the ticket and that had the money not been claimed then it would have been added to future draws therefore representing more opportunity for him to win. 

The OLG Brochure on claiming large prizes can be found here http://www.olg.ca/assets/documents/responsible_gaming/howto_check_claim_prizes.pdf .

He may have a point but we need to remember the history of the OLG insofar as rightful winners is concerned. A new era began for them post Ombudsman's Report http://www.ombudsman.on.ca/Resources/Reports/A-Game-of-Trust.aspx . They have come a long way since this report was issued and I applaud them for completing what amounted to a culture change in their organization. That takes leadership. Regrettably for them, it does not stop me from criticizing them when I think it appropriate. As for Jay - I think that he needs a little more seasonal spirit.

Good luck to all.

Doug

Prestige Weakens But Remains the Choice

A lucky player in Welland won one of Prestige's Grand Prizes last week. Another one was claimed since the last time I updated my data for this posting. The cumulative effect of the two wins will be to bring Prestige down to the territory of the other top games currently for sale. Players can now feel that any of the top five games are good choices. As of November 27th, the game with the largest imbalance of Grand Prizes to tickets sold is Frogger. But be careful - it only has one Grand Prize left to claim.

Top Rated Games

1. Prestige (66%)
2. Money Multiplier (33%)
3. $200 Million (33%)
4. Classic White (10%)
5. Fast 200s (26%)

Note: Have you seen the ads on TV for $200 Million? Lots of information on what you can win but nary a mention of the $20 cost of the ticket. This game is being sold nationally and sales are lagging (see below). Further, the game has been in the marketplace since early April. It's curious that the OLG would decide to push an old game for which the public has demonstrated resistance.

Games to Avoid

1. Cash For Life 1162 (30%)
2. Crossword 3203 (10%)
3. Cashingo (16%)
4. Keno 1410 (17%)
5. Bingo 3008 (14%)

Note: Percentage numbers represent the estimated amount of the ticket float left to be sold. Once the number is less than 20%, tickets become more difficult to find.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Fast 200s remains a strong choice in this area. Note that the Grand Prize for this game is only $200 but there are over 1000 of them left to be claimed.

$3 Game Update

Frogger is the best choice. This is a tricky area as most players prefer $3 games yet 4 of the 5 games to avoid are also $3 games. Be careful if you're purchasing $3 games.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Money Multiplier is becoming a better and better choice every week. Four - $100,000 prizes remain to be claimed.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Three of the top five rated games come from this area and the lowest rated game, Cash Blast, is not a bad choice either. If you're willing to pay $10 for a ticket, play whatever game tickles your fancy.

Comings and Goings

The OLG did us a favour by deleting Horseshoes this past week. It was a lame duck. Wild 8s was also retired with one of its Grand Prizes left to claim. It was the second rated $1 - $2 game at the time of its demise. That's annoying.

The OLG introduced its annual "Gift Pack" game this past week. It is a $10 play with several smaller games included. I haven't rated the game yet as those clever marketers at OLG have structured the game such that if any ticket in the envelope wins a small prize, there will be other winners included. The minimum total win is the $10 cost of the pack. I like that. There is also a free ticket for another game included. I don't like that as it stretches my limited mathematical evaluation model.

Personal Play

Six Prestige tickets contained one winner of $20. Not good. There are only four weeks of play left for this year. I am presently right about where I should be, in terms of results, and that is not good. I need some luck.

Thanks again to the folks that post comments on the blog. There is an excellent post by Trinitron on last week's update that describes what our actual chances of winning are in terms that humans can understand. Reading it helped me to not feel bad about my inability to hit a decent score. Go give it a read.

Game Sales

The following is a listing of all games for sale, as of November 27th, and the estimated number of ticket sales for that game over the course of the past month. The percentage is the percentage of the original float that was sold over the period measured.

Game	Tickets (000's)	% of Float
SuperBingo	2115	20
Cross Tripler 1755	1269	15
Cashingo	711	27
Prestige	643	4
Cash For Life 1162	513	5
$200 Million	480	3
Black Pearls	470	18
Money Multiplier	463	15
Keno 1412	460	9
Classic White	449	6
Crossword 3203	366	10
Cross Express	356	11
Fast 200s	329	10
Cherry Tripler	317	10
Bingo 3008	272	3
Frogger	267	11
Cash Blast	226	16
Cross Tripler 1743	196	2
Black Jack Tripler	187	7
Cherry Jubilee	185	6
Keno 1410	165	3

Comments: Keep in mind that Classic White, Prestige, and $200 Million are all being sold Interprovincially. In terms of percentage of their float, the sales for all of those games are low. I am also at a loss to explain why Keno 1410 continues to be sold. The OLG has a blind spot when it comes to this game when you consider that it has been for sale for all of 2013, all the Grand Prizes have been claimed, and it is the worst seller of all games. Pull the plug on this dog, I say.

Doug

Prestige Maintains Its Secrets

Prestige is in a holding pattern as its sales are languishing. The result is that it remains the top pick. A meager 3% of its float has been sold since late October. As you would expect, low sales equals few Grand Prizes being revealed. Eleven of the twelve Grand Prizes remain to be claimed and a little more than two thirds of the tickets remain to be sold. This is an Inter-provincial Lottery Corporation game which means that I'm not sure how long they will continue to pursue an unpopular game. Prestige is not alone as $200 Million and Classic White are also slow sellers. Maybe the buying public has a significant resistance to spending $10 on a scratch and win ticket. Next week I'll prepare a chart for the active games indicating how many tickets each game has sold over the past month. But for now, Prestige remains the top pick.

Top Rated Games

1. Prestige (67%)
2. Money Multiplier (36%)
3. Fast 200s (27%)
4. $200 Million (59%)
5. Classic White (11%)

Games to Avoid

1. Cash for Life 1162 (30%)
2. Cashingo (18%)
3. Keno 1410 (18%)
4. Horse Shoes (12%)
5. Crossword 3203 (11%)

If you're buying $3 games, take care! All of the above games are devoid of Grand Prizes and four of them are $3 games.

I'm sad to see Cashingo fall "below the line". It was a popular game and rated highly but its last Grand Prize was revealed this week making it the newest of the lame duck games.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Apart from Fast 200's, which is a game with many small Grand Prizes, Wild 8's is the best choice.

$3 Games

Frogger is the top choice here but be careful - there is only one Grand Prize left to be claimed.

$4 - $5 Games

Money Multiplier is a very good choice and it is flying under the radar. If you don't want to shell out $10 or $20 for a ticket, this is the choice.

$10 - $20 Games

Prestige is rated to be so much better than the other three games that I can't justify steering you elsewhere.

Comings and Goings

I was surprised to see a new game this week after the roll-out of the Christmas games. Fat Cat is a $2 game that has potential. Almost 5% of the revenue is returned to players who win $100 or more. That is second only to Fast 200s in the $1-$2 game category.

Personal Play

Four Prestige tickets began with a bang as the first one was worth $50! The remaining three were all losers. My year to date return on investment is now 74% and I have cashed on 38% of tickets this year.

Thanks to readers who posted messages this past week. I always enjoy hearing what you have to say and I'm sure that is also true for other readers.

Lotto Max

Here is my little essay on Lotto Max. Instant Game players are on one end of the spectrum - Lotto Max players are on the other end.

My office has the habit of creating a lottery pool every time the Lotto Max reaches $50 million. Everyone contributes $5 to the cause. I suspect that the main reason most people play is the fear that the others will win. The organizer does a great job of collecting the money, having people sign the group sheet, and providing everyone with the numbers in advance of the draw.

For the last big draw, there were 36 participants. With three lines per play, we had 168 lines in play. The results --- four free tickets! Based on the published odds, we should have reasonably expected to have won $20 once and picked up 7 free tickets. We had one chance in 80 to get five numbers right. Had we been so lucky we would have won $130 for our $180 investment. One of our free tickets won another free ticket to Friday’s draw so it required one additional week to wipe us out.

The bottom line is that games like Lotto Max are essentially winner take all propositions. The Interprovincial Lottery Corporation takes $.52 out of every $1.00 spent for its share of the pie. Once the free plays and $20 prizes are deducted from the $.48 that the lottery chaps put into play, 87% goes to the jackpot winner. In other words, the winner of Lotto Max wins over 40% of all the money spent on tickets. Compare that to Instant Games where the lottery gods take about one third of the money and the Grand Prize winners generally split, depending upon the number of grand prize winners, less than 10% of the revenue generated by the game.

One other minor complaint that I have about Lotto Max is that when the pot exceeds $50 million, the lottery corporation offers a series of single line winning numbers, each one worth $1 million. It is extremely difficult to verify 168 lines of seven numbers against a series of 20 - $1 million lines of numbers. The result is that people are left checking their tickets at machines to see if they won. I don’t like that – I want to know that my ticket is a winner (or a loser) before I check it.

Lotto Max has a large audience of people taking their fling at a monstrous prize. As for me, I prefer scratching my tickets and getting maximum action for my dollar. I'm prepared to pay the cost of not being able to win a monster prize. It’s a matter of preference. 

Hats off to the Saskatchewan Rough Riders. They were deserving winners.

Doug

Prestige Stands Firm

During a short week Prestige surrendered none of its top prizes. It remains the recommended play. For those looking for a cheaper alternative, the third rated game, Money Multiplier, is a good choice. Its odds of 310,000:1 to win the Grand Prize are the best of any game. Another feature I like about this game is that only 9.6% of projected revenue is returned to players who win the cost of the ticket. That is the second best such number currently available.

I was encouraged by the new Cash For Life 1161 but no sooner had I posted my last blog than a reader posted a comment that one of the Grand Prizes had already been claimed. That event has negatively impacted the game based on the fact that your odds of winning one of the two remaining Grand Prizes are now 4 million to 1.

I have a bone to pick with the OLG on these Cash For Life games. Their policy is to retire games with no grand prizes left to claim if the Grand Prize for the game is $100,000 or higher. The Present Value of $1000/wk for life is $750,000. Double that for the Double Cash for Life. By that measure, Cash for Life 1162 should be retired. Let's see if they do so promptly or not. The temptation to let the game remain in play is large considering that 30% of the ticket float remains to be sold (3 million tickets).

Top Rated Games

1. Prestige (68%)
2. Fast 200s (30%)
3. Money Multiplier (40%)
4. $200 Million (60%)
5. Classic White (11%)

Games to Avoid

1. Cash For Life 1162 (30%)
2. Keno 1410 (18%)
3. Crossword 3203 (14%)
4. Horse Shoes (13%)
5. Bingo (15%)

Note - Percentages are estimated remaining percentage of tickets left to be sold.

$1 - $2 Game Update

After Fast 200s and its small but plentiful Grand Prizes, Wild 8s is the best choice.

$3 Game Update

This is a battleground. These are the highest volume games yet four of them are presently devoid of Grand Prizes. Be careful. Cashingo and Frogger are the best two choices.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Money Multiplier is the best choice, followed by Jack Frost.

$10 - $20 Game Update

If you afford this level of play, stick to Prestige.

Comings and Goings

After all the activity of last week, there is not much to report this week. The OLG mercifully retired 20X Lucky. The game had surrendered all of its Grand Prizes and had an estimated 15% of its float left to sell.

Personal Play

Three Prestige tickets included 2 winners totaling $40. Jay in Scarborough blew his weekly budget on one Prestige ticket and managed to double his money.

There are some interesting comments from readers to last week's entry. One poster is not a fan of Prestige - too many little wins. Fair comment. These things are always a question of preference. Another poster mentioned a hospital lottery. I have never purchased a $100 lottery ticket before but I know lots of people who have won non cash prizes and swear by this type of play. Any feedback from readers on that question would be appreciated.

The Argos face the TiCats in the Eastern Final for the first time since 1986 on Sunday! That's pretty shocking when you realize that there are only four teams in the conference. Of course the Roughriders/Renegades were also competing for periods of time over the course of those 27 years.

Doug

Prestige Continues to Dominate

Prestige's rating increased this past week as 3% of its float was sold and nary a Grand Prize was revealed. To date, only 1 of the 12 Grand Prizes has been revealed and 32% of the tickets have been sold. We should have expected to have seen 4 of the prizes claimed by now which puts us three to the good. This is a significant imbalance that makes the game a top pick. The game also offers a very high 50.0 % of its projected revenue returned to players winning more than the $10 cost of the ticket and less than $100. This is a strong number that yields one winner of more than the cost of the ticket from every 4.80 tickets sold. If you can scrounge up the $10, this is the game to play.

Top Rated Games

1. Prestige (68%)
2. Fast 200s (32%)
3. $200 Million (60%)
4. Money Multiplier (43%)
5. Cash For Life 1161 (100%)

Games to Avoid

1. Cash for Life 1162 (31%)
2. Keno 1410 (19%)
3. 20x Lucky (15%)
4. Horse Shoes (13%)
5. Crossword 3203 (19%)

Note: It is treacherous at present as three of the worst five games have co-existing sister versions for sale at the same time. Be careful not to play the poor version.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Fast 200s is a top choice. Of the rest, Wild 8s is playable.

$3 Game Update

This has been a wasteland for games of late. Things are beginning to turn over as of late. Frogger 1757 is the best choice of the $3 games, followed by Cashingo.

$4 - $5 Games

Money Multiplier is the best choice but a new Cash For Life has been initiated at it already ranks as the second best game in this group. If you play it, be careful to play game 1161 and not 1162. There are no Grand Prizes left for 1162.

$10 - $20 Games

Prestige is the clear choice in this area.

Comings and Goings

The holidays are upon us. Four new games were launched last week in recognition of Christmas stockings everywhere: $1 Peppermint, $2 Stock Stuff, $3 Holly Jolly, and $5 Jack Frost. The OLG also introduced a new Cash For Life and Crossword 3202. That's a lot of new action. Of all the new games, Cash For Life begins with the best rating, followed by Jack Frost.

Crossword 3200 was retired from play with 1 Grand Prize and only 4% of its tickets left to be sold. That is the lowest such figure I have seen so I can't fault the OLG for retiring the game with the single Grand Prize left outstanding. Who knows, maybe it has been purchased and is just waiting to be scratched.

Personal Play

Three Prestige tickets contained two winners totaling $40. Not enough to bump any of my numbers up significantly. I continue to cash at a higher than expected rate but I can't seem to snag anything other than little prizes. My return on investment to date this year is 72%.

I was in Tim Horton's on the weekend. Beside me was an elderly lady who was carefully scratching her Horse Shoes ticket. After she was finished she passed it to her daughter who double checked to be sure that it was a loser. They even read to rules on the reverse side of the ticket. Hats off to the pair of them. As players, we must be in control of how we are playing. To ignore those considerations is the first step in allowing for potential chicanery by others. I didn't have the heart to tell the two ladies that Horse Shoes is a terrible choice. None of its Grand Prizes were left to be won. I think that they would have been too upset by that little nugget.

In my next blog posting I'm going to dig into Lotto Max but before I do that I'd like to provide readers with a mini analysis, written by Peter Gross, as part of his bi-monthly editor's column in "Down The Stretch" newspaper that covers activity on the horse racing circuit (www.downthestretchnewspaper.com):

"Have you tried the 'new' Lotto 649, which promises 'more ways to win'? One of the new ways to win is to have 2 out of 6 numbers plus the bonus. The odds are 1 in 81.2 of doing that. The OLG pays you $5 on a $3 ticket. At the track we call that 3 to 5...and don't get me going on about 3 of 6. Used to be you paid $1 for a 649 ticket and if you got 3 of 6 you were paid $10. Now if you get 3 of 6 on a $3 ticket you get... $10."

Good points by Peter. These games are essentially "Winner Takes All" propositions. We Instant Games players are much more democratic than that. Sure, the prospect of the big win is enticing but we need to have fun while we're playing as well as have the chance to win a Grand Prize, albeit a smaller one.

I hope all readers had the opportunity to reflect upon the lives cut short and the families left in mourning on this important day. The British Expeditionary Force lost 64,000 men on the first day of the Battle of the Somme on July 1st 1916. Reflect on that for a minute.

This will be a short week as you can look for the next update before the coming weekend.

Doug

Prestige Dominates

During my absence,Prestige continued to assert its authority over the rest of the field. The game is a dominant choice with 11 of its 12 Grand Prizes remaining to be claimed and 30% of the ticket float sold. The game provides 10.6 cents out of every dollar to the Grand Prize winners which is the best for existing games and 50% of total game revenue is returned to prizes of less than $100. This is the second best game from that perspective. I'm going to have to come up with lots of titles for future blog posts as this game is going to remain on top for some time to come. My only complaint about this game is that the tickets are too long! They're hard to fit into any sort of pocket. Pretty lame complaint, no?

Best Rated Games

1. Prestige 71%
2. Fast 200's 36%
3. Cash Blast 43%
4. Cash For Life 35%
5. $200 Million 61%

Games to Avoid

1. Keno 1410 21%
2. 20X Lucky 15%
3. Horseshoes 14%
4. Crossword 3203 28%
5. Cross Express 33%

$1 - $2 Game Update

Fast 200's continues to be highly rated. It is the clear choice in this area and a good choice overall.

$3 Game Update

There has been nothing worth playing in this area for some time but Cashingo is beginning to look good and one of our readers did have a $500 cash already on this game.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Cash For Life is a good choice and Money Multiplier can also be played.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Prestige is dominant. Reader Trinitron also likes $200 Million due to it's high rate of winners at 1 for every 3 tickets. No argument there.

Comings and Goings

While I was away the OLG was busy getting rid of five games. Two of them were games with no grand Prizes left to claim and two others were games that were rated as being poor choices so I have nothing to gripe about. Scrabble 1754 was one of the games and I have been whining about that one for some time. Interestingly, Bingo 3009 was retired while Bingo 3008 was not. The former game was only introduced in early July and had two thirds of its float left. Bingo 3008 has been on sale since late January and has 17% of its float left. How does one explain that decision? A call to the OLG call center provided the answer: A number of the tickets had been voided and were being used for demonstration purposes by the OLG. Those voided tickets somehow were sent out to retailers. Once the OLG learned about the problem, the game was cancelled. Anyone with a winning Bingo 3009 ticket is able to cash it.

Super Bingo 3013 was introduced recently. It is a jumbo game with over 10 million tickets available. I'm not crazy about the game as only 3.3% of total revenue is returned to winners of $100 or more. That is very poor. There are lots of prizes of less than $100 but I would like to see more going into the grand prizes of which there are 10, each worth $50,000. That's 10 out of 10 million tickets.

Personal Play

Four Prestige tickets contained one $10 winner. Sucks. My overall results are now down to where one would expect after starting the year well. I feel that I'm due for some better luck.

I'll write about the US games next time. I lost on all tickets with the exception of a free ticket on a $1 game. My foray into Powerball also yielded nothing but it is hard to turn your back on a $216 Million jackpot. That's crazy stuff!

Good to be back.

Doug

Prestige Looks Best

I'm heading off to the USA tomorrow and will miss my next scheduled blog update. I will not be doing a complete update for another two weeks.

A quick glance at the OLG site tells me that Prestige is certain to continue its reign as the recommended game.

I offer thanks to the posters who leave messages on the site. I encourage visitors to read them as they are just as useful as anything I might have to say. Ryan reports that he is having trouble finding Keno 1412 at his local seller. However, there are lots of Keno 1410 tickets for sale. That is the difference between night and day. I fail to understand why the OLG thinks that people who buy $3 tickets don't care about their investment. Its insulting and players like Ryan highlight that point. He was the lucky winner of $500 in Cashingo last week. There are only 184 of those prizes offered in the game so hats off to him.

Lloyd reports zero luck with either Prestige or Cash Blast. He is going back to $3 games where he had more luck. I know how he feels. In my personal play this week I went 0 for 5 Prestige tickets. That stings.

Patrick had better luck than either of us but still nothing to brag about. I think it goes without saying, but I will, that the absolute best strategy is to keep your money in your pocket. Any game where the house collects 30% - 40% is going to run you into the poor house if you get too serious. The idea is to play a bit, play smart, and hope to get lucky. Oh, and to avoid buying games that we should all be avoiding.

For this weeks entry I am providing a chart of all the games that are currently for sale and have been for sale for at least one month. They are ranked by the estimated average ticket sales over the past month. Many factors affect this number such as the size of the float, percentage of tickets left to sell, the quantity supplied by the OLG to sellers, cost of ticket, and the attractiveness of the game.

Game                            Quantity (000)
Crossword 3203              216
Prestige                            66
Cash For Life                    50
Crossword  Tripler            40
Frogger                            36
Bingo 3008                       33
Bingo 3009                       30
Classic White                    26
$200 Million                      25
Money Multiplier               25
Crossword 3200                21
Horseshoes                       21
Wild 8s                            20
Cross Express                   18
Cherry Triple                    17
Fast 200s                          17
Bonus Keno                      15
Cash Blast                         15
Cherry Jubilee                   11
Keno 1410                        11
Black Jack Tripler              11
20x Lucky                        10
Poker Multiplier                  4
Scrabble                            4
More Lucky Lines              3

Horseshoes, Keno 1410, More Lucky Lines, Scrabble, and 20x Lucky are the games for which all the grand prizes have been claimed. This flies in the face of the OLG's claim that games that sell less are retired. If this is so, then why are they continuing to flog these tickets. Why was Instant Millions canceled with higher daily sales? I have absolute faith in the integrity of the OLG, post Ombudsman's report, but I think that they can tend towards not putting the interest of the player first. It's the natural tendency of any bureaucracy.

I'll be picking up Instant Games from as many states as I can as I refuel while heading down the I75 to Florida. I'll report back on what I find in the next update. If they're anything like I found in New York, we're lucky to be playing in Canada.

Best.


Doug

Prestige is Poised to Rule a Long Time

I thank reader Trinitron for pointing out that I had erred in my calculations. Prestige was the top rated game, as indicated, but it was not as dominant as I had suggested. The game continues its progression this week as it failed to surrender any of its Grand Prizes once again. Eleven of the twelve original Grand Prizes remain and almost 1/4 of the ticket float has been sold. The game is rated to be substantially ahead of the second rated game (Cash Blast) and with 11 Grand Prizes left, it will continue on top even if two or three of the Grand Prizes are revealed. You have 1 chance in a million to win a Grand Prize of $1 million for your ten dollar investment. In Cash Blast you have one chance in 272,000 to win a Grand Prize of $250,000 for the same $10. If its simply the best chance to snag a Grand Prize, then Cash Blast is your game. I'm sticking with Prestige.

Top Rated Games

1. Prestige 76%
2. Cash Blast 57%
3. Fast 200s 46%
4. $200 Million 63%
5. Wild 8s 15%

Games to Avoid

1. Keno 1410 25%
2. Horse Shoes 20%
3. More Lucky Lines 17%
4. 20x Lucky 17%
5. Scrabble 5%

Note - percentage numbers are the estimated % of the game's float that remains to be sold. Once a game falls below 20%, tickets will begin to become harder to find.

The OLG has fallen into its old ways once again. Each of the five games on the "Games to Avoid" list has exhausted its respective Grand Prizes. Scrabble is particularly abhorrent given the length of time that its tickets have been sold while being in this state. Thank goodness that it is unlikely that your local seller will even have any tickets for sale with a scant 5% of its float left to sell. Now that Keno 1412 has been launched we should see the end of Keno 1410. If you're buying the new game, be careful not to buy the old one.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Wild8s and Fast 200s remain well rated. I would recommend buying some of each as it is not common that these games reach the top five.

$3 Game Update

Two new games were introduced this week. There is hope that one or both may develop into a good choice in time.

$4 - $5 Game Update

The best two games are Cash for Life and Money Multiplier.

$10 - $20 Games

No change this week - anything other than Classic White will do just fine.

Comings and Goings 

Two new games were introduced this week: Cashingo and Keno 1412. Cashingo has already coughed up a Grand Prize making Keno 1412 the better of the two. I like the structure of each game. The prize structure for each is a pyramid with fewer prizes in every value as the prize size increases. Players instinctively think that this must be true but it is not. Cashingo returns 5.7% of its revenue to winners of $100 or more versus 4.5% in Keno. Keno also has a category high 14.3% of its revenue returned to players who win their $3 back. Your chances to win a Grand Prize are presently 1.1 million:1 in Cashingo and 833,000:1 in Keno 1412. The difference is attributable to the fact that Cashingo has surrendered one its 3- $75,000 Grand Prizes. All six $50,000 Grand Prizes remain in Keno 1412.

Personal Play

Four Prestige tickets included three winners totaling $55. I'll take it! I now sit at a cash rate of 38% and a return on investment of 74%.

I received some junk mail this past week (who knows how these things happen) encouraging me to play scratch and win tickets on-line at an off-shore location. Who would do such a crazy thing? As much as I have problems with the OLG and their "Modernization Plan", at least I know that the Government of Ontario stands behind them and they are transparent about their Instant Games. The dreaded slot machines are an altogether different story but I won't go there...

Bonne action de grâce à tous et toutes.
(Happy Thanksgiving to one and all)
Doug

Prestige Presses Its Advantage

Prestige sold an estimated whopping 2 million tickets last week without losing a single Grand Prize! Eleven of the twelve Grand Prizes remain to be claimed after selling one third of the ticket float. Your chances of winning one now stand at 830,000:1 versus the 1.2 million:1 that existed at the outset of the game.

I know that this game is expensive at $10/ticket but it is by far and away the best game to play at this time. Almost 12 cents of every dollar spent on the game is returned to the Grand Prize winners and this number is the best that is currently available. At the same time, the game has a high percentage of winners and a high percentage of winners that pay more that the cost of the ticket. The game is strong in every respect.

Top Rated Games

1. Prestige 63%
2. Cash Blast 63%
3. Fast 200's 50%
4. $200 Million 63%
5. Cherry Jubilee 40%

Games to Avoid

1. Horse Shoes 52%
2. More Lucky 19%
3. Scrabble #1754 5%
4. Blackjack Tripler 17%
5. Bingo #3008 30%

Note: Percentage figures indicate the estimated percentage of the float left to be sold.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Cherry Jubilee and Fast 200's are both good choices to play. It's unusual for an inexpensive game to rate highly given the higher take out in these games.

$3 Game Update

It's tough to recommend any game in this area. Crossword #3200 is better than Crossword #3203 and Bingo #3009 is better than Bingo #3008. Don't be fooled.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Black Pearls, Money Multiplier, and Cash for Life are all reasonable choices in this area.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Just avoid Classic White. Each of the other three is a good choice.

Comings and Goings

Crossword Tripler #1755 was added this week. The game is very similar to the other Crossword Triple #1743 game that is also for sale. I'm not crazy about the game as the 3.6 cents per dollar of revenue dedicated to Grand Prizes is low for $5 games and the 13.6% of revenue returned to players who "win" back the cost of the ticket is high. The float for the game is over 8 million tickets so it will be around for a while. The earlier version of the game was launched back in April and there is still 1.5 million tickets left to sell in that game. If you must play this game, play the new version.

Personal Play

Three Prestige Tickets contained one winner of $20. That is about par for the course. Norm in Mississauga purchased one Prestige ticket for his "friend". It was a $50 winner. He cashed the ticket and bought one more - it was worth $20. I know it's not a huge win but nicely done nonetheless.

I received an interesting message this past week from a visitor to the blog. She had taken the time to write the OLG complaining about the manner is which it retires games. The letter she got in response was interesting in that I'd be curious to know if the author actually believes what she is saying. I respect the OLG for the fact that they take the time to respond but their explanations for their decisions do not hold water. It is my view that the criteria for canceling games should be entirely objective. The letter they sent states clearly that there can be judgement in their decisions. Whenever the OLG applies discretion, their priority should be the interest of the players. Sadly, it often is the interest of the OLG. How else does one explain why games with Grand Prizes unclaimed are routinely canceled while games with not only no Grand Prizes but also no Second Prizes and in one case no Third Prizes continue to be offered for sale. It's a case of player beware but it can't hurt to write to them as this individual has done.


Doug

Prestige Returns to the Top

Cash Blast’s reign on top was short lived after it coughed up two of its five Grand Prizes this past week. The incurred damage reduced the game to the #4 spot, leaving Prestige standing head and shoulders above all other games currently for sale. Prestige is an Interprovincial Game and has only surrendered 1 of its $1,000,000 Grand Prizes after selling an estimated 20% of its float. The game has a balanced prize distribution with 8.2% of revenue going to Grand Prize winners, 2.2% going to winners of $100 or more but less than the Grand Prize, 50% going to winners of less than $100 and more than the cost of the ticket, 9.6% going to people who got their money back, and 30% going to the OLG and, according to them, your local hospital. Your chance to win any prize more than the cost of the ticket is one in every 4.80 tickets – that’s very good. Lastly, and I know that this is ridiculous, I like the scratchability of the ticket – nice and smooth.

Top Rated Games

1. 1.       Prestige (79%)
2. 2.       Fast 200’s (54%)
3. 3.       $200 Million (64%)
4. 4.       Cash Blast (71%)
5. 5.       Cherry Jubilee (42%)

Games to Avoid

1. 1.       More Lucky Lines (19%)
2. 2.       Scrabble #1754 (6%)
3. 3.       Black Jack Tripler (46%)
4. 4.       Bingo #3008 (35%)
5. 5.       Frogger (59%)

$1 - $2 Game Update

These are good days for players who like inexpensive games. Fast 200’s is a top game and all the other games are reasonable choices. That is not always the case for these games.

$3 Games

It’s treacherous in this area. Four of the five lowest rated games are $3 Games. The best choice in this group is Horse Shoes.

$4 - $5 Games

Black Pearls is a new game and is the top rated game in this group. Avoid Black Jack Tripler and Poker Multiplier.

$10 - $20 Games

Avoid Classic White. Although Wild 10’s has been retired, if you can find any loose tickets, they are a good choice. Otherwise, Prestige is the stand out choice.

Comings and Goings

Wild 10’s and Super Bingo were retired this week. Wild 10’s was a playable game over a period of several weeks. I purchased 34 of them, cashing on 10 for a total return of $180. A disappointing result, to be sure. I did not have occasion to play Super Bingo. Wild 10’s had 20 of its 150 - $10,000 Grand Prizes and 15% of its float left to sell. Super Bingo had 1 of its 10 - $50,000 Grand Prizes left and 6% of its float.

Black Pearls is a $5 game that was introduced this past week. The game rates well right off the bat within its group of games. It is light on its intermediate prizes with only .6% of its total revenue going to those winners. In fact, there are only 9 prizes greater than $105 and that is not good for a $5 game. It also returns 10.7% of its revenue to people who win their money back. That is also high. Still, the 7 $100,000 Grand Prizes is good. The odds against winning one are presently 360,000:1 and that is excellent.

Personal Play

I have a system that has some flexibility and some boundaries. I know from experience that if I venture outside of my established boundaries bad things happen. I played 2-Cash Blast and 2-20X Lucky tickets last week. I cashed on one of each for a measly total of $25. Early this week I was at the Grocery Store when I saw that they had two orphan Wild 10 tickets left. My system does not permit me to buy tickets mid week. Too much could have happened since I last updated the blog. Nevertheless, I bought the tickets and paid the expected price by getting skunked. Just another lesson in a lifetime of them.

Best of Luck to all readers.

Doug

Cash Blast #1752 Blasts Into Top Spot

Cash Blast has wrestled the top spot away from Prestige although both games are eminently playable. Prestige has yet to surrender a Grand Prize of $1,000,000 and it was the top pick last week which makes it tough to understand how it could have slipped in the ratings. The answer is that Cash Blast has also not surrendered a Grand Prize and it is selling its float at a quicker rate than Prestige. Cash Blast was only released 10 days or so ago and has already sold 20% of its float. Prestige has sold 17% of its float but has been selling since early August.

Cash Blast returns $.11 of each ticket to its Grand Prize winners. This is a very high number. Your current chance to win a Grand Prize is 224,000:1, down from the 285,600:1 when the game began.

Top Rated Games

1. Cash Blast
2. Prestige
3. Fast 200's
4. 20X Lucky
5. $200 Million

Games to Avoid

1. Scrabble #1754
2. More Lucky Lines
3. Blackjack Tripler
4. Bingo #3008
5. Frogger

I will save my breath on Scrabble. This game should have been put to bed long ago. By every measure the OLG should have retired it, but instead they continue to push the tickets. Be aware!

$1 - $2 Game Update

Fast 200's is a top pick and Cherry Jubilee is also not a bad choice.

$3 Game Update

If you must, Super Bingo #3012 is the best choice.

$4 - $5 Game Update

20X Lucky is the only good choice in this category.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Avoid Classic White. Otherwise, the other games are all good choices.

Comings and Goings

No changes to report this week. Lets hope that Scrabble and More Lucky Lines are both torpedoed over the course of the coming seven days.

Personal Play

Two Cash Blast and two 20X Lucky returned 2 winners and $35. That is my first profitable week in some time. My cash rate is 37% and my return on investment is 74%.


Doug

Prestige #1741 Takes Over Top Spot

I apologize for the delay in posting this update. I was in New York City last week attending, among other things, the US Open. It is a spectacular event.

During my absence, the OLG got to doing quite a bit of housekeeping. Five games were retired and three new games introduced. It must be a new school year. Sadly, two of the preferred games were retired (Texas Hold'Em and Cleopatra). The good news is that one of the new games (Cash Blast) enters the market as the second rated game.

The new game of choice is Prestige. This is an Inter-Provincial game with a ticket float in excess of 14 million tickets. A poster had previously asked the open-ended question of when the first of the 12 available $1,000,000 was going to be won and where. Well, for those who thought later rather than sooner, you were right. All 12 prizes remain outstanding after an estimated 10% of the float having been sold. The prize distribution for the game is average for $10-$20 games insofar as grand prizes is concerned. The prizes less than the grand prize and at least $100 are low. This is compensated by the number of winners of less than $100 and more than the price of the ticket. The chances to win any prize more than the cost of the ticket are third best of all games currently offered for sale. Despite this, Shelley has reported that she bought 18 Prestige tickets only winning back half of her investment. Be careful out there!

Top Rated Games

1. $100 Million Prestige (90%)
2. Cash Blast (90%)
3. 20X Lucky (29%)
4. Wild 10s (16%)
5. Fast 200's (63%)

% figures represent the estimated precentage of the original float left to be sold

Games to Avoid

1. More Lucky Lines (21%)
2. Scrabble #1754 (8%)
3. Bingo #3008 (37%)
4. Keno #1410 (32%)
5. Bonus Keno #1413 (22%)

Players need to be very careful with the $3 games. They are the games in highest demand yet all five of the games to avoid are $3 games. Keep your wits about you if you're buying those tickets. Trinitron00 has posted his concerns about Scrabble #1754. I agree with him.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Fast 200's is the best game in this area and one of the top overall rated games. Good value for $2.

$3 Games

It's a minefield! There is nothing really to recommend but if you are determined, Super Bingo #3012 is the best choice.

$4 - $5 Games

20X Lucky stands out in this area.

$10 - $20 Games

Stay away from Classic White. Otherwise, all the other games are acceptable choices.

Comings and Goings

Jacks are Wild, Cleopatra, Texas Hold'Em, Silver Gold, and Pick 3 were all retired. Each game had less than 20% of its float left to sell and readers were having trouble finding some of the tickets. This is common when the available tickets get down to that area. My question is that there are four other games with less than 20% of their tickets left that continue to be sold. Scrabble #1754 is the most glaring example of a game that should be buried. Why is the OLG so inconsistent about this?

Cherry Tripler ($1), Frogger ($3), and Cash Blast ($10) have all come online for sale. Cherry Tripler does offer some prizes for less than the grand prize and at least $100, which is good. On the down side, there is a high proportion of tickets worth the $1 you paid for them. Cashing for $1 seems like a waste of time. Triniton00 reports that he does not like Frogger due to the 35% takeout. That number is about standard for $3 games. The game does suffer from a high level of $3 winning tickets. Your chance to win more than $3 in this game is the second worst of any game currently for sale. Cash Blast is an interesting game and has already sold 140,000 tickets without revealing a Grand Prize winner. Another week like the last one could move this game up to top spot.

Personal Play

Three 20X Lucky tickets returned one winner of $20 and 4 Texas Hold'Em tickets returned nothing. I am now sitting at a 37% cash rate and a 73% return on investment.

Hats off to Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic!

Doug

Texas Hold'Em is Top Rated - But You Can Fold Your Hand

Texas Hold'Em remains the top rated game but I have some serious concerns about it. The game is coming out on top as 1 of its 3 Grand Prizes of $75,000 remains to be claimed from an estimated 14% of its original float. That means that there are 360,000 tickets left to sell. The problem is that the secondary top prizes for the game have been hollowed out. All 5 trips to the World Poker Tournament (I would have taken the cash equivalent) have been claimed; only 2 of 18 $1000 Prizes are left to be claimed, and only 5 of 37 $515 prizes are left to be claimed. I also agree with the reader who expressed his dislike for the game based on getting his four of a kind hand(s) being beaten by the dealer's straight flushes.

And we have the ongoing problem with supply as the tickets are becoming hard to find. I find the reports from posters interesting as Wild 10s, Silver Gold, Cleopatra, and some other games are in some sort of limbo as they continue to appear on the OLG site yet retailers are being asked to return unsold tickets. Is this some process whereby the OLG tries to scoop back any unsold Grand Prizes before they retire the game? Why not let retailers sell whatever quantity they have on hand? What they appear to be doing is a good business decision for the OLG but not a good one for players.

Top Rated Games

1. Texas Hold'Em (14%)
2. Prestige (93%)
3. Cleopatra (17%)
4. Wild 10s (17%)
5. Fast 200s (70%)

Games to Avoid

1. Scrabble #1754 (12%)
2. More Lucky Lines (24%)
3. Bingo #3008 (38%)
4. Bonus Keno (25%)
5. Keno (33%)

I have included the estimated size of the ticket float remaining to be sold for each game. I came across a young woman sitting on a bench this week who had bought two tickets - a Horse Shoes ticket and a Scrabble ticket. I asked her how she made out. "Two Losers" was the reply. I wonder if she would have bought that Scrabble ticket if she knew that there were no Grand Prizes left to be claimed, no $25,000 second prizes left to be claimed, no $15,000 third prizes left to be claimed, no $10,000 fourth prizes left to be claimed, and one out of seven $5,000 fifth prizes left. And yet the OLG continues to sell this game whereas Instant Millions was retired with......, oh well, you know my rant so I won't bore you again.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Fast 200s and Pick 3 remain the best choices here.

$3 Game Update

Lots of games to avoid in this area. Apart from Texas Hold'Em, Super Bingo and Bingo #3009 are OK.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Cleopatra is good but scarce. 20X Lucky is a good choice.

$10 - $20 Game Update

All the games in this area are playable.

Comings and Goings

The Interprovincial Lottery Corporation retired Extravaganza this past week. Two of the initial 14 - $1 million prizes were left to be claimed from the almost 3 million tickets left to be sold. This game had begun to be sold in 2012 and was long in the tooth. I think that the OLG has trouble selling $10 and $20 tickets when there are too many of those games for sale at the same time. Extravaganza was not the worst game to play, but it was not among the best. This decision should help the sale of Prestige and Classic White tickets. I only hope that Wild 10's has not been retired as it is currently the best game in this group.

Money Multiplier #1748 was introduced this week. This game has more prizes of $100 or more but less than the $100,000 Grand Prize than any other $5 Game. Those prizes come at the expense of the prizes of less than $100 but more than $5. Overall, your chances to win any prize and to win any prize more than the cost of the ticket are third out the eight $5 games currently for sale. It will be an interesting game to watch.

Personal Play

A smorgasbord of tickets including Texas Hold'Em, Scrabble, and Wild 10's produced a small loss for the week. I now stand at a 38% cash rate and a 73% return on investment. As usual, I need a $100 win to give my results a boost. Is that too much to ask?

I normally restrict all comments on this blog to the subject of Scratch and Win tickets. I have, however, undertaken to a friend to inform you of his NFL Survivor Pool that will get underway next week. It costs $10 to enter and he normally has about 1000 entries. A portion of the entry fees are directed to Variety Village which is the only reason why I am doing this. If you want more information, you can email him at poolmaster55@rogers.com. I can offer you the absolute assurance that he is trustworthy. There, my promise is fulfilled.

May Lady Luck be with you this week.

Doug

Texas Hold'Em Barely Holds on to Top Spot

It gives me great pleasure to announce that one of the readers of this blog was the lucky winner of $75,000 in the current Scrabble game! Lloyd purchased his ticket near Coxwell and Queen in the east end of Toronto. Lloyd has answered one of the questions I have in that the OLG recorded his win as being in East York (a former borough of Toronto before amalgamation). That's where Lloyd and his wife live. I always wondered if the winners list indicates where the ticket was bought or where the winner resides. Now I know. This is Lloyd's second win of $1000 or more. That means two visits to OLG headquarters. Not too shabby!

Lloyd reports that he will be spending $5000 on some new furniture with the rest going into savings. I think that $75,000 is the perfect amount to win. It's enough to pay bills, take a trip, buy some new things, make an RRSP and a TFSA contribution and have lots left over! But it's not enough to change your life or adversely affect your relationships with family and friends. So Hats Off to Lloyd! We should all be inspired by the knowledge that winning is indeed possible. Lloyd's Scrabble game still has a Grand Prize left to claim and only an estimated 15% of its tickets left to sell. Your chances to win it are a measly 500,000:1 so lets go find it!

Texas Hold'Em barely holds on to the top spot this week. One Grand Prize remains outstanding with approximately 380,000 tickets left to sell. Your problem will be to find any tickets. My local seller tells me that Texas Hold'Em and a couple of the other games on the "Best Of" list have "expired" and he has returned tickets to OLG headquarters. I think that he's wrong about the "expired" bit but I suspect that OLG has asked retailers to return unsold tickets in advance of canceling the game. It's my old bugaboo and I intend to bleat on about the subject in future entries. But not this week given Lloyd's big win.

Top Rated Games

1. Texas Hold'Em
2. Silver Gold
3. Prestige
4. Scrabble
5. Wild 10's*

* Wild 10's has had a run of winners over the past few weeks lowering its playability rating. Twenty-five $10,000 prizes remain to be claimed from 240,000 tickets.

Games to Avoid

1. Bingo #3008
2. Bonus Keno 
3. Keno
4. Horse Shoes
5. Poker Multiplier

$1 - $2 Game Update

Silver Gold is a good game but tickets will be hard to find. Fast 200s is a good second choice.

$3 Game Update

The four lowest rated games, at the moment, are all $3 games. Be careful as these games are among the most popular.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Cleopatra is the top rated game in this area. A reader has indicated that he dislikes the game due to his 0 for 8 ticket run when the game was first launched. I've yet to win with the game too so I'll be treading lightly, if at all.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Prestige and Wild10s are both playable.

Comings and Goings

No action to report although if my sellers are any indication, the retirement of at least two of the top 5 rated games is imminent. Grrrrr.

Personal Play

Eight Silver Gold tickets included 3 winners totaling $14. Two Cleopatra tickets returned bupkis! My overall numbers are stuck at 38% cash rate and 72% return on investment. I need just a touch of Lloyd's luck.

Enjoy your week.


Doug

Texas Hold'Em Reaches the Top Spot

I have tweaked my evaluation method to include a factor for the imbalance between the chances of winning a Grand Prize at the outset of the game and the current chances. The goal is to identify games where the odds are tilting towards today's player. The rating system is now the product of the current Grand Prize imbalance and the old game evaluation method. I'll write more about this another time.

Based on the new method, Texas Hold'Em is the new top rated game. This game currently has 1 Grand Prize left and 15% of its float left to sell. The game started with 3 Grand Prizes of $75,000. As of today, $.063 of remaining revenue will go to the lucky purchaser of the outstanding Grand Prize. This is fifth best of the current games. The current imbalance for the remaining Grand Prize is second only to Silver Gold.

Wild 10s continues to be well rated. This game, along with Fast 200s, is based upon a greater number of Grand Prizes of lesser value relative to the cost of the ticket. For this reason it is much more unlikely that an imbalance of outstanding Grand Prizes will be created as sales for the game continues.

Top Rated Games

1. Texas Hold'Em
2. Silver Gold
3. Wild 10s
4. Prestige
5. Cleopatra

Worst Games

1. Bingo #3008
2. Bonus Keno #1413
3. Keno #1410
4. Poker Multiplier
5. Cross Express

Note - There are currently no games for sale for which all of the Grand Prizes have been claimed. If you like Bingo, be careful to buy game #3009 and not #3008.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Silver Gold is a good play with 2 of its 4 initial Grand Prizes currently outstanding and only 20% of its tickets left to sell. Fast 200s provides $.125 of total remaining revenue to the Grand Prize winners. That is the best number of any game currently offered for sale.

$3 Game Update

Texas Hold'Em is the top rated game. Scrabble #1754 is also a good choice.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Cleopatra has 2 outstanding Grand Prizes of $100,000 from the 7 original prizes included in the game. An estimated 18% of its float remains to be sold.

$10 - $20 Games

Wild 10s and Prestige are both playable games. One has 29 - $10,000 Grand Prizes left while the other has 12 - $1,000,000 outstanding. Seems a clear choice for the latter game (Prestige), no? Well, there are an estimated 260,000 Wild 10 tickets left to be sold whereas there are over 14 million Prestige tickets left to be sold. It comes down to personal preference.

Comings and Goings

A new Crossword game was introduced this week (#3203). There are now two Crossword games on the market. I recommend the earlier game (#3200). It has 5 of its 16 Grand Prizes left to be claimed after selling 80% of its tickets. The two games are otherwise very similar in terms of prize distribution.

Personal Play

I offer my thanks to readers who have posted comments to the blog of their experiences. Their opinions of the games vary wildly and all are valid. Trinitron had good success with Wild 10s while Bo Booboo calls the game "useless". I tip my hat to players who are checking the OLG website and making conscious decisions as to what games they are playing. That is what this blog is about.

I played 4 Prestige tickets last week. Two were winners returning $30. As a result, my year-to-date stats barely budged.

I included a tease in last week's blog concerning very good news for a reader. Well, given that this entry simply catches me up to date and is already filled with information, I'm going to ask you to wait until next week where I can give the news the headline treatment it merits.


Doug

Wild 10s Getting Long in the Tooth But Remains the Choice

After more than two weeks since the last update, Wild 10s has retained its top spot. With 34 Grand Prizes left to claim, your chances to win one are one in 8,200 while your chances to win $100 or more are one in 330. Both of these numbers are currently the best available. The downside of the game is that an estimated 20% of the float remains to be sold and readers of this blog have been reporting that the tickets are scarce in their respective part of the province. That is certainly the case in Ottawa.

Prestige is a new game that looks like it may become the heir apparent to Wild 10s. More about the game follows below. This game has $12 million available to Grand Prize winners from 15 million tickets. By comparison, Wild 10s presently has $340,000 left in Grand Prizes from 280,000 tickets.

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Wild 10s
2. Prestige
3. $200 Million
4. Fast 200s
5. Extravaganza

Games to Avoid

• None.

*Kudos to the OLG for finally getting rid of QFG Crossword. They milked that game for all it was worth well after the Grand Prizes had all been claimed.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Fast 200's is a good game in this area. The maximum prize is only $200 but there are over 3,000 of them to be won.

$3 Game Update

Scrabble #1754 is the best choice in this group. Texas Hold'Em is a good second choice.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Cleopatra remains the best choice although every game in this group is OK with the sole exception of Poker Multiplier.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Classic White is the poorest game in this area and for some reason my local retailer is always suggesting that I buy those tickets. Did you get a memo from OLG Headquarters?

Comings and Goings

QFC Crossword and Cash Cow were both retired over the past two weeks. QFG Crossword had been devoid of Grand Prizes since mid-June and 95% of the float was ultimately sold. Contrast that to Instant Millions that was retired some time ago and you can see that the OLG is inconsistent in its decision making about how long games remain on the market. Cash Cow had 2 of its 5 Grand Prizes left to be sold and 22% of its float left to be sold. It was pushed aside for Cross Express but what about those two unclaimed prizes?

Two new games were introduced recently. Horseshoes is a $3 game with the usual prize distribution for $3 games. The 3- $75,000 Grand Prizes represent 2.9% of the revenue. The available prizes for less than $75,000 and at least $100 are lower than average with a higher level of $3 winners in exchange. Overall, it does not compare favourably with other $3 games, at least not at this point in time.

The $10 Prestige game is another Interprovincial Game. Its prize distribution is good. The 12 - $1 million prizes represent 8.2% of the revenue and your chances to win any prize are 1 in 3.28 tickets which is second only to $200 million in the high end group. The number of tickets worth the $10 cost of the ticket is relatively low  at 9.6% of total revenue. Wild 10s, by comparison, returns 12% of its revenue to $10 winners. A reader who jumped on Prestige early bought 11 tickets winning only $20. Not a good initial endorsement.

Personal Play

Thanks to the scarcity of Wild 10s, I purchased 3 - $200 Million tickets. They contained 1 - $20 winner. While stopping for gas I extended my budget when the seller had 2- Wild 10s left to sell. They were both winners returning $45.

I'm now sitting at 72% Return on Investment and a 39% cash rate.

There was lots to talk about this week after my absence but I have some very exciting news to share with you in the next update. It is the kind of news that provides players everywhere with first hand hope. Stay tuned for the Friday update.

Doug

Wild 10's Remains the King

The recommended game revealed 9 of its Grand Prize winners last week while selling 47,000 of its tickets. The law of numbers has been in effect with this game since its debut. With 150 Grand Prizes available at the outset, they tend to be revealed at the same rate as the tickets are sold. When there is only 3 or 4 Grand Prizes, they can either be revealed early or late. When it's late, that's when prudent players should arrive at the party. At present, 44 Grand Prizes are left in Wild 10's and 378,000 tickets are left to be sold. Your chances to win one are now 1:8,600.

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Wild 10's
2. $200 Million
3. Fast 200's
4. Extravaganza
5. Pick 3

Games to Avoid

• Quest For Gold Crossword

Note: I have no idea why this game has not been canceled. Less than 5% of its float remains to be sold and, predictably, sales are virtually nil. I'll bet that you could not find one of these tickets even if you wanted to buy one.

$1 - $2 Game Update

The games with a large number of lower grand prizes score well on my rating system. Pick 3 and Fast 200's are both good games to play. With a $1 and $2 price tag, why not?

$3 Game Update

Texas Hold'em surrendered one of its two remaining grand prizes last week. As a result, there is not much left in this category to play. If you must, Scrabble #1754 and Texas Hold'em are the best choices but I would look elsewhere for value.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Cleopatra, Cross Tripler, and Cash For Life are the best games in this category. None is a particularly good play at the moment.

$10 - $20 Game Update

With the exception of Classic White, each of the other three games is playable. I know, the cost is a problem. It is for me too.

Comings and Goings

Our friends at the OLG did us the immense pleasure of retiring Cash for Life #1159 and Tetris last week. Tetris is a particularly good example of OLG decision making that is not in the interest of players. All of the Grand Prizes had been claimed by 30 April in this game. They sold almost 800,000 of those tickets since that date! I guess if people want to play a game with no Grand Prize then that is their choice. Crazy!

The retirement of Cash for Life #1159 deserves a feather for the OLG cap. All of its grand prizes had been claimed by June 19th and 70% of its tickets were left to be sold. Further, it had to compete against Double Cash for Life which has to be an uphill battle. Double Cash for Life sold more tickets last week than the retired game did since becoming bereft of Grand Prizes.

A new game was also introduced this week: Black Jack Tripler. This game has 7 Grand Prizes of $100,000 representing 5.5% of the revenue base for the game. That is a good number. The game has a bit more winners for the price of the ticket than I like to see. The chances to win any prize are 1 in 4.18 (below average) and the chances to win a prize greater than the $5 ticket cost are 1 in 7.19 (below average).

Personal Play

My seller seems to be running out of Wild 10's. He only had 1 last week. I purchased it along with my first $200 Million.

The Wild 10's was a $15 winner, breaking off my losing streak. The $200 Million was a dud. My overall cash rate is now 37% and my total Return on Investment is 71%. I have been trending down for the past two months. I am now at a result that would be expected. So much for 2013 being my lucky year. Still, there is always next week.

There will not be a blog entry next week as I am headed off to Saratoga Springs, New York  for the best thoroughbred horse racing in North America. If you're a horse player and have never been there, I cannot recommend it any more highly. It is a little paradise on earth. I'm hoping to see at least one of the Triple Crown race winners in the Whitney Stakes prepping for the Travers Stakes in late August.

Keep on Truckin.


Doug

Wild 10's Rules the Roost

After a revamp of the current evaluation system, Wild 10's maintains its top billing. Your chances of winning a $10,000 Grand Prize are currently 8000:1. Last week saw 6 of the Grand Prizes claimed from the 50,000 tickets that were sold. This game has currently sold almost 70% of its ticket float which means that tickets should remain readily available over the next few weeks. If you are put off by the relatively low Grand Prize when compared to the price of the ticket, try $200 Million. Feedback has been positive from readers of this blog who have dabbled in that game.

Thanks go out to the two readers who posted messages to the blog concerning the claiming of Grand Prizes in the Double Cash for Life Game #1162. I update my information on Thursdays and the next day another prize had been claimed. A further Grand Prize was claimed during this past week leaving only 1 of the Grand Prizes in that game with fully 85% of the tickets left to be sold. Both the Cash For Life games are now poor propositions yet they are very popular games with players. It is always good practice to check at the store or at  the mobile site http://www.scratchodds.com/ or at the OLG site http://www.olg.ca/lotteries/games/viewInstantTicketInfo.do to ensure that nothing has changed with the game you intend to play. Take nothing for granted.

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Wild 10's
2. $200 Million
3. Texas Hold'em
4. Fast 200's
5. Extravaganza

Games to Avoid

• Quest For Gold Crossword
• Tetris
• Cash for Life #1159

$1 - $2 Game Update

Twelve cents out of every dollar spent on Fast 200's is returned to the Grand Prize winners. This is good. The downside is that only one ticket in every 7.94 is worth more than the $2 you paid for it. It is the top rated game in this group.

$3 Games

Texas Hold'em continues to be a good game in this group. It is recommended for those who balk at paying $10 for a ticket.

$4 - $5 Games

Cleopatra is another game that flies under the radar. You have one chance in 200,000 to win $100,000 for a $5 ticket. Not bad.

$10 - $20 Games

It's interesting how slowly the $200 Million tickets are selling. The game was introduced in early April. About 25% of the tickets have been sold to date. By comparison, Super Bingo and Tetris were introduced at the same time. Over 80% of the $3 tickets for both of these games have been sold to date. I'm not the only one who can suffer from price resistance.

Comings and Goings

It's the dog days of summer. No new games and no retirements this week. We'll let the OLG staff have some vacation.

Personal Play

I erred last week when I stated that there was a 3% chance of having 8 losing Wild 10's tickets in a row. The actual chance of that happening was 6%. Well, I had another wipe out last week. I am now 0 for my last 12 tickets. There is a 1.6% chance of that happening. The strange thing is that my seller had to open another package of tickets for me last week. I got the last four tickets in the trip again. It defies all logic to think that there is something to that but we human beings innately look for patterns. That won't be happening to me again.

Wild 10's is now the worst game that I have played this year. I have cashed on 7 out of 27 tickets for a measly $120. My overall cash rate is down to 35% and my total return on investment is 72%. This is becoming intolerable!


Doug

Wild 10s Stays on Top - For Now

Wild 10s retained its position over the past week. Fifteen of the $10,000 Grand Prizes were claimed last week from the 60,000 tickets sold. Your odds to win one of the remaining 59 Grand Prizes are 8,000:1.

I have been looking at my evaluation method and I have concluded that it needs to be tweaked. Any game that devotes more of its total revenue to the Grand Prize does very well based upon the existing rating method. That fact is important but I think that I am providing too much weight for it. This is not to say that the games that I have been recommending have been poor, it just means that I need a little more balance in the formula. I will change it this week and report on the details of that change in next week's blog.

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Wild 10's
2. Double Cash For Life (Game 1162)
3. $200 Million
4. Fast 200's
5. Texas Hold'Em

Fast 200's is a prime example of my need to re-calibrate the formula. It is a new game with a heavy weighting towards the Grand Prize(s). This makes the game one to watch but, in my opinion, it should not be the 4th rated game before selling any tickets.

Games to Avoid

• Quest For Gold Crossword (5%)
• Tetris (13%)
• Cash for Life (71%) (Game 1159)

I have included the estimated percentage of the ticket float remaining for each of these games. I always find what the OLG does in this area to be disconcerting. Most games are retired when the float drops down below 20%. Quest For Gold Crossword and Tetris are both well below this number but the OLG continues to flog these tickets. Cash for Life has the misfortune to have revealed all three of its Grand Prizes early in its life cycle. Lets see how long this game remains in play. The OLG policy is to retire games where the Grand Prize is $100,000 or more once all the Grand Prizes have been claimed. That should be the case here as the Net Present Value of the Grand Prize for this game is greater than $100,000.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Two new games were introduced this week. Fast 200's looks good. It is one of the games like Pick 3 and Wild 10's where there are lots of Grand Prizes but the Grand Prizes are small. In this case, it is only $200 but there are 3909 to be won.

$3 Game Update

Texas Hold'Em is the best game in this group by a significant margin.

$4 - $5 Games

The Cash For Life Games are always popular. We currently have a very good one and a very bad one. Be careful - play Double Cash For Life.

$10 - $20 Games

Although Wild 10's is our top rated game, none is poor in this category.

Comings and Goings

Cross Express is a new $1 game. Note that apart from the 4 - $10,000 Grand Prizes, there are no prizes available of $100 or more. The ratio of tickets that return your $1 is low, which is a positive. Your chances to win any prize is second best for the $1 - $2 Games.

Fast 200's is a good game with lots of $200 Prizes. If it's action you want rather than a big prize, play away.

A new Bingo (Game 3009) has surprisingly been introduced. I say surprising as the existing game (Game 3008) is in mid-life. The two games are very similar in structure but if you wish to play this game, play the new one.

Personal Play

I'm streaking downwards fast! Last week was my first shut out of the year. I followed that up with another shut out this week. My cash rate is now down to 37% and my Return on Investment to 75%. This is getting serious.

There is only a 3% chance of having eight consecutive losers in Wild 10's. I often wonder why my bad luck is routinely more dramatic than my good luck. A reader once asked me if there is any advantage to where the tickets are in a strip. I did not quite understand the question but now I do. The seller last week opened a new package of tickets and peeled my four off the back of the strip. The same thing happened today although I have yet to scratch my tickets for this week. The answer to the readers questions must be "NO", but who knows really? These tickets are produced by computer programs with random number generators. Who's to say that there have never been quirks in the "fail proof" system. It's not like it has never happened before! http://www.wired.com/magazine/2011/01/ff_lottery/

Play safe.

Doug