Cash For Life #1167's Reign Continues

It has been over two weeks since my last post and during that time Cash For Life #1167 has done nothing but improve its place on top of the current list of games.

Over the 18 days, an estimated 1.2 million tickets were sold without revealing the last remaining Grand Prize. Could it be in your Christmas stocking? Let the sugar plums dance. The rating for the game is heavily influenced by that last prize so if you're buying tickets for this game, ask the retailer for the most updated list of outstanding Grand Prizes as once that prize is gone - so is the game. There are presently 140 prizes left for the game valued at $100 or more. Those 140 prizes total $730,120. The one remaining Grand Prize is valued at $675,000 or over 90% of the remaining top prize cash.

Of the games that took a hit over the same 18 days, Wild Card lost all 3 of its remaining Grand Prizes and Polar Bear lost both of its Grand Prizes. Both of these games are to henceforth be avoided.

Top Rated Games

1. $4 Cash For Life #1167 - One big juicy prize left and 970,000 tickets to sell. 
2. $3 Crossword #3210 - High on all 3 scales but tickets are in short supply
3. $3 Keno #1416 - Still 18% of float left but has been identified for retirement. 
4. $3 Crossword #3212 - Its happy days when both versions of a game are recommended!
5. $10 Diamond #1781 - Best of the pricey games. 

Games to Avoid

1. $2 Polar Bear #1862 - Hope Santa doesn't leave you any of these suckers. 
2. $30 250 M Golden #1782 - tough game to evaluate given its cost and price values. 
3. $5 Wild Card #1854 - Wiped out over the course of the last two weeks. 
4. $3 More Lucky Lines #1829 - The Ghost of Christmas Past. 
5. $2 Golden 7's #1824 - A long run ahead and nowhere to go but up.

Games with Plentiful and Small Grand Prizes

1. $5 500 Frenzy
2. $1 Red Hot 50's

Games To Play If All You Want Is The Grand Prize

1. Cash For Life #1167
2. Diamond
3. Spectacular
4. Extreme
5. $250 M Golden

Games Devoid of Grand Prizes

• Polar Bear
• Wild Card
• More Lucky Lines

Comings and Goings

Super Bingo #3018 and Fast 200's were both retired over the past two weeks. Super Bingo had rated well and left with one Grand Prize of $50,000 outstanding and just under 1 million tickets. Fast 200's was the top rated game of its ilk and left with 823 of its $200 Grand Prizes outstanding.

New to the collection is Scrabble #1861. This is a 3 million ticket game with odds of 2,300:1 to win a prize of $100 or more. It enters play rated 13th of the 29 games currently for sale.

There are presently 112 million tickets for sale which is a bit high. I expect that we will see that number dip substantively in the week after Christmas. The game with the highest remaining float is Cash For Life 1171 with almost 15 million tickets available for sale. And we mustn't forget those million $2 off coupons floating around thanks to the Gift Pack.

Personal Play

Eleven Cash For Life tickets contained one winner of $4. Bah humbug!

Post Script

Sad to report that OLG workers at the Rideau Carlton Racetrack in Ottawa have been locked out by their employer http://www.ottawacommunitynews.com/news-story/6200590-rideau-carleton-raceway-slots-workers-locked-out-amid-labour-dispute/ . The issues seem to be financial and include pensions as the OLG prepares to shed these employees as part of their "modernization". I'm hopeful that the matter can be resolved soon given that we have seen similar OLG situations resolved elsewhere.

Here's an article from a statistics professor in BC who wants us to know that buying Scratch and Win tickets for Christmas is a mugs game:  http://globalnews.ca/news/2405668/statistics-professor-wants-consumers-to-scratch-lotteries-off-your-christmas-shopping-list/ . I have news for the professor - we already know and we play regardless, because its fun!

I bought my daughter (fully functioning young adult) two Cash For Life tickets as a pre-Christmas gift. She does not gamble in any way but she was excited to get them. She messaged me the next day to announce that one of the tickets was worth $6!. I realized that, to me, the tickets represented a cost of $8. To her, it was $6 of free money and she had fun winning it. There is a contrast buried somewhere inside there that cannot be captured by the good professor's regression formulae.

Here is a juicy tidbit for all the posters who are believers in conspiracy theories: https://news.worldcasinodirectory.com/add-kansas-to-4-other-states-where-lottery-prizes-may-have-been-fixed-19603 .  It couldn't possibly happen in Canada, could it?

My next post will be the first post of 2016 and will be published on New Year's Day. I wish all visitors to this blog a very Merry Christmas and to all the people who work at the OLG so that we can have fun responsibly playing these "sucker" games, thanks for all that you do.


Doug

Cash For Life #1167 Sits Firmly on Top

The $2 off tickets are being cashed en mass as the game of choice sold almost 400,000 tickets last week but the sole remaining Grand Prize is still outstanding. Oddly, your chances to win the Grand Prize are almost identical to the new version of the game issued this week at 1.5 million to one. Why then am I recommending the earlier version? Well, the older version has a small prize ( < $100) return rate of 57.1% whereas the new game's comparable rate is 53.3%. Further, the odds against winning a top prize of any description are 1 in 6,933 for the old game versus 1 in 46,310 for the new game. Yes, those 10 Grand Prizes look juicy but don't be deceived. The old game still has 19% of its float left (+/- 1%) and thus should be readily available.

 

Top Rated Games

1. $4 Cash For Life #1171 - Cash in those $2 off coupons.
2. $3 Cashingo #1847 - positive top prize ratio of 1.29
3. $3 Crossword #3210 - nice to see a staple game rated highly
4. $5 Wild Card #1854 - lost a Grand Prize last week but still hangs around
5. $10 Diamond #1781 - after a long drought, a $10 game returns. No thanks to New Liskeard!

Games to Avoid

1. $3 More Lucky Lines #1829 - fie on this game
2. $2 Golden Seven's #1824 - poor on all measures
3. $3 Bingo #3016 - terrible top prize money ratio
4. $1 Lucky Lines #1826 - poor sister to the worst game
5. $5 Cross Tripler #1830 - be careful of this popular $5 game

Games to Play If You Only Want A Grand Prize

1. Cash For Life #1167
2. Cash For Life #1171
3. Spectacular #1865
4. Diamond #1781
5. Extreme #1780

Games Devoid Of Grand Prizes

• $3 More Lucky Lines

Best Games With Lots of Small Grand Prizes

1. 500 Frenzy
2. Fast 200's
3. Red Hot 50's

Comings and Goings

Lots of activity this week with two games deleted and three new ones added.

The terrible 10X The Money was mercifully deleted along with Aces and 8's which was popular in some corners but I never cottoned to it.

New on the scene is a new Crossword game which should be avoided as long as its concurrent sister version is still on sale. A new Cash For Life with 10 Grand Prizes is on the scene but, again, I prefer the older version. An odd aspect of the game is that the game sheet claims that 67.76% of the revenue is returned to players but when one adds up all the prizes on the game sheet it comes out to 64.9%. Is that $2 off coupon sticking its nose in this game too?

Lastly, the much anticipated $30 - $250 Golden Treasures came on line. I have never seen a game quite like it. Only 28.9% of the revenue is returned to winners of less than $100. Of course, a $100 win is the same as a $10 win for a $3 game. There's lots of money to be won but the comments from posters indicate that this community is not going to be a big consumer of the game unless spouses are picking them up for Christmas presents. I'll be tracking sales closely on the game. $30 is a lot for a scratch ticket.

Personal Play

Nothing to report.

Post Script

Thanks to Randy who's research skills determined that one of the frequent Pro-Line winners was also previously convicted of possession of $150,000 of marijuana. I'm guessing that represents more than personal use.

From the file of "Anything that can happen, will happen" we have this story from California:
http://or-politics.com/u-s-world/lucky-guy-man-wins-the-lottery-twice-in-one-hour/204285/ .

And here is a mess of a story: http://www.guelphmercury.com/sports-story/6156476-province-trots-out-online-horse-themed-gambling-product/ . Now, understand that the OLG had the welfare of the horse racing industry rammed down its gullet but this is very lame. They hired a new vice-president, Cal Bricker, who was recruited from a waste management company. He's in charge of the horse racing file? And their first volley is a slot machine for which "It is unknown whether the horse-racing industry will get a cut of the gaming revenue from Fire Horse or will only stand to gain from additional exposure and the link to bet on the races." 

Good lord! I have some news for Mr. Bricker - horse racing has been going on in Ontario since before confederation. Ontarians do not need a web page on the insidious www.playolg.ca site to "introduce" them to horse racing. How insulting.

I have an idea for Cal. Google the "Irish Sweepstakes" if you want an idea as to how lottery gaming and horse racing can be linked. Everything old is new again.

I will be here and there for the next couple of weeks and may miss an update. If that happens, I'll still be reading your posts so keep them coming.


Doug

Cash For Life #1167 Comes From Nowhere To Top The List

The OLG cleared house this week and after all the dust settled, Cash For Life is left occupying the top perch. I have never seen a game move up as significantly over the course of one week. A little over 200,000 tickets were sold last week without revealing the last Grand Prize. Your chances to win that prize are one in 1.9 million which is not very encouraging but the game offers a Top Prize ratio of 1.35 which is the best of any game currently for sale. The game has a Small Prize Payback figure of 57.1% which is .7% below the average of all games.

For those of you who are sitting on the $2 off on a CFL game included in the Gift Pack, you can get good value by using the ticket now rather than waiting for the new version of the game. If you do, check the Outstanding Prize list because if that ticket is redeemed, the game will take a serious hit.

Unfortunately, I can't include a good copy of the ticket as the new CFL game has been listed without the game actually being introduced for sale. It's not your eyes that are giving you problems, it's the file.

Top Rated Games

1. $4 Cash For Life #1167 - Came out of nowhere to take top spot.
2. $5 Wild Card #1854 - Lost a Grand Prize but still hanging in there.
3. $10 Diamond #1781 - Steadily improving its position.
4. $3 Cashingo #1847 - Last remnant of the good $3 games.
5. $5 Tripling 7's #1858 - Solid choice. 

Games to Avoid

1. $2 10X The Money #1839 - Last member of the family left alive. Kill it!
2. $3 More Lucky Lines #1829 - Love to hate this game.
3. $2 Polar Bear #1862 - Lost a GP early on. 
4. $1 Lucky Lines #1826 - No confusion - they both stink
5. $3 Bingo #3016 - 1 of 10 GP left and 24% of the float. 

Games With Lots Of Small Grand Prizes

1. 500 Frenzy
2. Fast 200's
3. Red Hot 50's

Games To Play If All You Want Is A Grand Prize

1. Wild Card
2. Cash For Life
3. Diamond
4. Spectacular
5. Extreme

Games Devoid of Grand Prizes

• 10X The Money
• More Lucky Lines

Comings and Goings

It was house cleaning week at the OLG. Three $1 games were all retired in addition to Sweet Cash. Of all those games, Bingo Express was the only one that I'm sorry to see go.

No new games were introduced. The total ticket float sits at 90 million which is normal. I expect that our friends will let that drop a bit before the new jumbo CFL game comes on line.

Personal Play

Nothing to report

Post Script

Excellent comments this week by an assortment of commentators. They are informative, helpful, and respectful. I thank all contributors for their effort and wisdom. Special note to Randy for his analysis.

The retirement of Bingo Express is welcome as it allows us to change the channel a bit. I have enjoyed the Spectacular versus Gift Pack debate. For me, neither game is of particular interest at this time but those gift packs do give you lots of tickets to scratch plus $2 off on what is now the top rated game. Still, the Grand Prize situation is of concern....

An interesting article that speaks to the elasticity of funds being expended on all kinds of gaming: http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/daily-fantasy-sports-spend-impacting-lottery-casino-play-538475311.html . I'm not sure if fantasy sports games takes away from lottery play or not. Lets remember that the OLG undertook its entire Modernization plan with the projection that, once completed, it would increase its contribution to the Provincial Treasury by over $1 billion per year. I've always wondered what they will say when it doesn't happen. Maybe excuses like the one above will make it into their speaking points.

News also from the OLG that progress is being made on the Northern and South Western bundles.

http://www.saultstar.com/2015/11/24/final-step-before-service-provider-chosen-to-run-certain-day-to-day-gaming-operations-for-regional-gaming-bundles

The Northern Bundle returned total revenue of $30 million in the first quarter of 15/16. Roughly the equivalent of the slots at Ajax Downs. With three existing points and the potential to build two new facilities in North Bay and Kenora, I am curious to learn how much a private contractor will pay for the right to invest and share profits. I cannot see how the OLG will ever see an increase in returns from this area. The South Western bundle returned $56 million or roughly the equivalent of the slots at Georgian Downs. In total the nine locations and potentially two new ones represented 17% of the total OLG returns.

And lastly, Tommy Middle Finger has indicated that his time spent entertaining us with his insights and analysis (all done with panache) will be reduced in the future due to competing priorities. See his post at the end of last weeks comments. Tommy has made this board much better than it would otherwise have been. I thank him for sharing his wisdom and sense of humour with us.



Doug

Bingo Express #1823 - Good Luck Finding Any

With it being so long after de-activation date, it is unlikely that any given retailer will have any of the top rated game left to sell. Unopened packages have been returned and stragglers are likely to be already sold. This is reflected in the sales of the game that have ground to a halt. So, it looks like those two outstanding Grand Prizes of $10,000 each will be credited to the OLG. Time to move on.

If you can find any - they're worth the buck.

Top Rated Games

1. $1 Bingo Express #1823 - Dead man walking
2. $5 Wild Card #1854 - Heir apparent. 4 of 7 Grand Prizes remain.
3. $5 Tripling 7's #1858 - Very good low prize availability and a positive ratio
4. $3 Super Bingo #3018 - Best small prize availability of any game
5. $3 Keno #1416 - another game with very good small prize availability

Games to Avoid

1. $1 5X The Money #1838 - The counter weight to Bingo Express
2. $3 Sweet Cash #1852 - Largest prize left is $1000
3. $3 More Lucky Lines #1829 - Top Prize ratio is .49.
4. $2 Polar Bear #1862 - Who said that they didn't have the heart to scratch them. Too late!
5. $2 10X The Money #1839 - Nothing to recommend

Rating of Games with 1000's of Grand Prizes

1. Fast 200's
2. 500 Frenzy
3. Red Hot 50's

Best Games If All You Want Is A Grand Prize

1. $10 Spectacular
2. $5 Wild Card
3. $10 Diamond
4. $20 Extreme
5. $4 Cash For Life

Games Devoid Of Grand Prizes

• More Lucky Lines
• Sweet Cash
• 5X The Money

Comings and Goings

$10 Cash Blast and $3 Crossword #3209 dropped off of the radar this week. The latter was one of the top rated games but at 6% of the float left and a new game already selling, it was time.

No new games were added although I was expecting the new Cash For Life to be there. I guess the OLG wants everyone to use their $2 off coupon from the Gift Pack on the old version.

Total tickets available now total 95 million - just a bit above normal.

Personal Play

Nothing to Report

Post Script

CL66 posted a comment this week concerning my evaluation method. For those who are interested, my formula takes into account the percentage of the revenue for a game that is dedicated to prizes of less than $100. The second factor is the ratio of Top Prizes left to be claimed and the Money associated with those prizes. I adjust those numbers based upon the current O/S prize list in an attempt to equalize the factors.

I am generally happy with the formula although it sometimes produces results that makes me raise my eyebrow.

CL66 uses a more linear method whereby he creates a dozen measurement points and rates every game from best to last based upon the particular point. He then sums up the ratings to achieve his overall rating.

Both systems have their flaws and each is available for your use as a visitor to the blog. The best approach may be to ignore both of the methods and go with your gut.

There were some comments last week about Pro-Line. I'd love to read comments from any visitor(s) who play it. In my opinion, the posted odds are terrible. Playing a $1 Scratch Ticket is a 20% better choice. Still, I have been known to dabble on some NFL games but for anyone who wants to risk more than a couple of bucks, there are legal off shore sites that provide single game wagering and better odds. An example is www.betfair.com . This is a publicly traded legal company in England. It's not legal for Canadians to use the site but there is only one reason for that - the OLG wishes to enforce its monopoly on the environment and you are their imprisoned customer. Hooey to that.

Finally, thanks to Sharron who posted an actual $100,000 winning scratch ticket this past week. https://www.dropbox.com/s/xpbf8ov2wfc14ue/2015-11-18%2012.02.58.png?dl=0 . I've seen the Mona Lisa and she's got nothing on that baby!

Doug

Bingo Express #1823 Remains the Top Choice

Ten days since the last update and both of the Bingo Express Grand Prizes remain outstanding. Your chances to win one are now less than 1 in 200,000 which is the best of any game currently for sale (excepting the games with plentiful Grand Prizes). The game also returns 58.7% of its revenue to winners of $100 or less. Of course, in this game, that is ALL of the prizes with the exception of those two Grand Prizes. With 13% of the float left to claim and the game having been deactivated, your chances of finding tickets will be a challenge. Time to suss out those out-of-the-way retailers.

Top Rated Games

1. $1 Bingo Express #1823 - Worth your $1 investment.
2. $3 Crossword #3209 - Tickets are scarce but great small prize return.
3. $3 Crossword #3210 - Lots of these so if you can't find the sister game, not a bad choice.
4. $5 Wild Card #1854 - 4 of 7 Grand Prizes left and 27% of the float. Strong pick.
5. $3 Super Bingo #3018 - Fantastic small prize ratio.

Games to Avoid

1. $1 5X The Money #1838 - Horrible game.
2. $3 More Lucky Lines #1829 - feast or famine. It's a famine for this version. 
3. $2 10X The Money #1839 - keep flogging the two black sheep of this family.
4. $10 Instant Game Pack #1922 - Noooo. I wanted to buy some. 
5. $2 Golden 7's #1824 - Terrible small prize return. 

Best Plentiful Small Grand Prize Games

1. Fast 200's
2. 500 Frenzy
3. Red Hot 50's

Games to Play If All You Want Is A Grand Prize

1. Cash Blast #1819
2. Wild Card #1854
3. Diamond #1781

Games Devoid Of Grand Prizes

• 5X The Money
• More Lucky Lines
• Sweet Cash

Comings and Goings

Crystal 7's was retired this week. A welcome choice as  it was devoid of Grand Prizes and was a $5 game which made it especially distasteful.

New on the scene were Merry Money and The $10 Holiday Gift Pack. Good reviews on both are contained in the comments to last week's post. I rank Merry Money 24th as two of its Grand Prizes have already been claimed after an estimated 14% of the float having been sold.

I desperately wanted to play the Gift Pack but it returns only 53.7% of its revenue to winners of less than $100. Its Grand Prize is only $50,000 and although there are 6 of them, that's still only 1.7% of total revenue which is easily the worst of all $10 - $20 games. The game only offers a total return of 65% instead of the usual 70% for $10 games. There is the $2 off of a $4 Cash For Life ticket and that has to be worth the missing 5% as was pointed out. What the heck, I'll buy some anyways.

If you want to be entertained read the string of messages between Lloyd and Tommy last week. It's good. If this blog serves no other purpose than to have rescued some of Lloyd's profits from the trash bin , then it has been a success.

Personal Play

Nothing to report

Post Script

Lots of discussion on checking tickets before discarding them. I could not agree more. I had a $30 winning Cross Tripler ticket that , even after being pleasantly surprised at the ticket checker, I could not see how I had won. I took the redeemed ticket home and it had to take me 15 minutes for me to see the mistake I had made.

I wonder what the estimated slippage is at the OLG? They know exactly what tickets were redeemed and the accounting for all redeemed prizes. What percentage of winning tickets are sold but never cashed? Racetracks enjoy the same sort of bonus. I would estimate it at about 5%. Any other opinions?

Interesting comments on the upcoming Cash For Life game by CL66. The game was not listed on the O/S Prize Listing today so it has not made it into the ratings. Its inclusion will bring the number of tickets for sale to about 115,000,000, well above the normal supply of about 90,000,000. There's no shortage of choice these days.

An amusing story about a chap who is suing Lotto Quebec because quick pick numbers are removed from the RNG for a period of a few weeks thereby creating the possibility that those very excluded sets of numbers may be the winning numbers.

http://on.thestar.com/1HjiKhq

I was shaking my head until I reached the part of the story where we learn that this is the same guy whose winning Lotto Max ticket was processed 9 seconds after the deadline. He lost that suit too. I pity the chap but this is no way to deal with his angst.

By the way, has anyone claimed that $64 Million Lotto Max prize in Mississauga yet? I'll bet that the DART team is on the job.


Doug

Scrabble Retired - Bingo Express #1823 Takes Over Top Spot

"For the loser now, Will be the later to win, For the times they are a changin." - Bob Dylan

In the three years that I have been writing this blog, never has a $1 game reached the #1 spot. These games operate under a house advantage of 40% which makes it nigh impossible to compete against games that can have an advantage of up to 10%. But there is a first time for everything.

Bingo Express has 2 of its 4 Grand Prizes of $10,000 left to claim and an estimated 13% (+/- 3%) of its tickets to sell. Your estimated chance to win one is one in 200,000 for your $1 investment. In total, 30% of all the money associated with the top prizes is available to be won with the 129 top tickets left to be claimed. If you can find any of these babies around, invest a few dollars.

Top Rated Games

1. $1 Bingo Express #1823 - Take a shot at $10k
2. $3 Crossword #3209 - A solid game but tickets are rare.
3. $3 Cashingo #1847 - All 4 GPs remain and only half of the ticket float.
4. $5 Wild Card #1854 - 1/3 of float left and over 1/2 of Top Prize money.
5. $3 Crossword #3210 - worthy choice if you can't find #3209. 

Games to Avoid

1. $1 5X The Money #1838 - Keep flogging OLG: No one's buying them. 
2. $3 More Lucky Lines #1829 - Twice all the Grand Prizes went early. Hmmmm.
3. $5 Crystal 7's #1848 - Keeping the GP< $100K allows OLG to keep the game alive. 
4. $2 10X The Money #1839 - Curious how the two good versions of family are retired. 
5. $3 Sweet Cash #1852 - No GPs left. Withering on the vine. 

Game Ratings For Low Grand Prize Options

1. Fast 200's
2. 500 Frenzy
3. Red Hot 50's

Best Games If All You Want Is The Grand Prize

1. $10 Cash Blast
2. $5 Wild Card
3. $20 Spectacular

Games Devoid Of Grand Prizes

• Crystal 7s
• Sweet Cash
• More Lucky Lines
• 5X The Money

Comings and Goings

The OLG certainly wants us to be filling our stockings this year. A number of new games have come on line bringing the total number of games for sale to 35. Three of them are contained within the "Family Pack" so you could argue that the total is 33. Still a lot, and those games represent 108 million tickets. That is about 15% above the normal inventory. We should look forward to seeing either the retirement of some games or a passive period of time upcoming.

A poster mentioned recently that a new version of Ontario Millions appeared on the Outstanding Prize list then just as quickly disappeared. It was an earlier version of this game that first "pulled my chain" and led to the creation of this blog. That version was withdrawn with 2 of its 3 million dollar Grand Prizes outstanding after having sold 80% of its float. The OLG told me at that time that Ontario Millions would never return as it had proven not to be popular with Ontarians. I guess 3 years is considered to be for ever in the modern world :-) I'll be watching this development closely.

Personal Play

No activity to report.

Post Script

One of our early posters, Shelley, has mentioned that she received spam that she feels is associated with this blog. It is not unusual for me to get spam as I suspect that clever people can find out the e-mail address associated with the site. When I flip to the blog to delete the post it turns out that the message was not posted to the comments. Now we can see that some even smarter people are able to harvest the email addresses to posters. I'm sorry about that but I'm not sure what can be done. Suggestions are welcome

There have been many comments posted to the blog since the last update. They represent lots of interesting commentary and I enjoy reading them all. I salute all posters for always ensuring that their posts are respectful and positive. That is not always the case on the internet. It speaks to class of Scratch Ticket players, IMO :-)

I should comment that I was glad to see the labour conflict settled between the OLG and its soon to be "modernized" staff. We can all play knowing that those employees have agreed to the terms of their employment. The conflict had the effect of presenting the OLG's Media Relations Manager to the public, Toni Bitonti. Here he is! A fine looking and amiable chap.




I close with a link to an OLG job posting whose credentials, I believe, are met by many of the posters to this blog. http://bit.ly/1l6BE6C  I have never fancied the prospect of living in Sault Sainte Marie but that salary looks awfully attractive....


Remembrance Day is a week from today.


Doug

Scrabble #1835 Strengthens Its Grip

The game of choice has reached the point of no man's land where the number of tickets left is diminishing slowly but they are hard to find. With 470,000 tickets left to be sold and 10,000 retailers, that only leaves, on average, 47 tickets per retailer - and we know that all such things are not equal. With low sales the OLG will be de-activating the game and that last remaining Grand Prize is destined to find it's way back to the OLG bottom line. Still, it remains in top spot and I'll be keeping my eyes open for them.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Scrabble #1835 - like finding hen's teeth.
2. $1 Bingo Express #1823 - Rare to find a $1 game on the list.
3. $3 Crossword #3209 - Tough to Find with version 3210 also for sale.
4. $3 Keno #1416 - Likely the best game with plentiful ticket availability
5. $3 Cashingo #1847 - Nice to see it make the list. Previous version sank quickly.

Games to Avoid

1. $1 5X The Money #1838 - Horrible squared.
2. $5 Crystal 7's # 1848 - $77,777 versus $100,000 GP allows OLG to keep flogging them.
3. $2 10X The Money - Why did the two good versions of these games get de-activated?
4. $3 Sweet Cash #1852 - Stinker
5. $4 Cash For Life #1167 - Give us a new version of this ever popular game.

Vox Populi***

1. Fast 200's
2. 500 Frenzy
3. Red Hot 50's

***Note - Instead of rating these games with large numbers of small grand prizes in comparison to regular games, I have created a sub-category just for these sorts of games.

Games to Play If All You Want Is The Grand Prize

1. $10 Cash Blast
2. $10 Spectacular
3. $20 Extreme
4. $10 Diamond
5. $5   Wild Card

Games Devoid Of Grand Prizes

• Sweet Cash
• Crystal 7's
• 5X The Money

Comings and Goings

No games were retired over the past 10 days but three new ones were added bringing the total of games for sale to a very high thirty-two. There are presently 110 million tickets for sale across the province which is also very high. Looks like some staff at OLG have been burning the candle at both ends.

Coming on line were new versions of Bingo and Cross Tripler plus the old faithful Holiday Spectacular. The latter is a $10 game with a very small float of 1.3 million tickets. We're still a long way out from Christmas. With six $10 - $20 games currently for sale, the field is quite crowded. I expect the Inter-Provincial game Fortune to be pulled very soon.

Cross Tripler #1846 starts its life as the 7th rated game. That is very promising indeed. The new Bingo game is also rated well at 13th of the 32 games. That's a good start for a $3 game with a significant float size of almost 9 million tickets.

Post Script

I have been following the comment thread on prize distribution with interest. It's something that I have mentioned before. My thinking has been swayed by some of the comments over time but I continue to approach the possibility with an open mind.

The reasons why I'm not absolutely convinced that it could not be possible is the opaqueness of how the OLG protects its supplier contracts (not subject to Freedom of Information as release could jeopardize the financial interests of the Province of Ontario) and the Marketing value of ensuring that all parts of the province enjoy the joy of lottery wins. That said, for the commentators that claim that Ottawa is a wasteland - I agree with you!

The reasons why I think it unlikely have to do with the controversy that would ensue if such activity was to become public, and the glaring fact that the OLG has no incentive do to so. They are selling to a captive audience and are making $1.6 billion per year. Why mess with it? Further, we have testimony from one OLG insider that it is definitely not the case.

I agree that the data might be interesting to gather. To do so you would need to obtain OLG data on ticket sales by geographic area. I believe that the OLG uses Census Metropolitan Areas. You would have to compare the sale of instant tickets over time versus large prizes claimed over the same time. Given the small number of large prizes, I think that you might need six months of data, maybe more. And I would reduce the number of CMAs significantly to reduce margins of error. Maybe a GTA, Ottawa, Hamilton, London, and Others breakdown would suffice.

Another approach would be to simply compare the number of large prizes won in lotto games versus instant games on a GTA versus non-GTA basis. There is no fooling around with lotto games (except, apparently, in Serbia). Should we not therefore expect to see the same number of GTA winners in those games, percentage wise, as we do in Instant Games? Or are the buying habits of GTAers different from those not in the GTA? Maybe. It's an interesting subject to debate.

Thanks to the poster who really laid it on the line this past week with his $%#@* scam comments with respect to certain current games. Cracked me up.

It's voting time. May your candidate of choice be elected.


Doug

Scrabble #1835 Reclaims the Top Spot

Crossword #3209's reign was short lived as it lost a Grand Prize last week thereby knocking it down two spots to the third ranking. There is now only an estimated 8% of the float left (2 million tickets) and , in my experience, being routinely pushed aside for its sister version of the game.

Meanwhile, our old friend Scrabble #1835 is back on top with one chance in a million to win the last Grand Prize of $75,000. Of particular note is the slow ascendance of Bingo Express #1823. Since I began this blog three years ago there has never been a $1 game that made it to the top. It's the two juicy Grand Prizes and the 750,000:1 odds that make it a good choice. With 18% of the float left out there you should be able to find them.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Scrabble #1835 - Something about hen's teeth applies here. 
2. $1 Bingo Express #1823 - Best $1 you can spend. 
3. $3 Crossword #3209 - One Grand Prize left out there. 
4. $3 Super Bingo #3018 - The numbers say yes, the heart says no.
5. $3 Keno #1416 - Good choice and tickets should be plentiful.

Games to Avoid

1. $1 5X The Money #1838 - The inverse of Bingo Express
2. $1 Red Hot 50's #1827 - Pig in a poke. 
3. $5 500 Frenzy #1853 - 3 winners on this board. Who can argue with that?
4. $2 Fast 200's #1817 - If you like this kind of game, this is the choice. 
5. $5 Crystal 7's #1848 - The $77,777 Grand Prize allows this stinker to continue. 

Games to Play If All You Want Is The Grand Prize

1. 500 Frenzy
2. Red Hot 50's
3. Fast 200's
4. Cash Blast
5. Extreme

Games Devoid of Grand Prizes

• 5X The Money
• Crystal 7's
• Sweet Cash

Comings and Goings

Two new games were introduced this week:   $2 Golden 7's and everyone's favourite $3 More Lucky Lines. I have enjoyed reminiscing this past week with the posted comments about the history of this game. I'd almost forgotten how riled up the board was over those travesties. Jaydee made the scary point that because the game is complicated, perhaps one or more Grand Prize winners were not even aware that they won and tossed their tickets away. Perish the thought but we all know that it happens.

I rate Golden 7's 20th and More Lucky Lines 13th of the 29 games currently for sale. See the comments to last week's entry for more detailed commentary.

Personal Play

Jason Jones posted this past week indicating that he prefers playing games when they are newly for sale. He feels that he has better success that way. Well, that's what I did this week, along with Mic, buying 4 Diamond tickets. Two of the four tickets were winners returning my full $40 investment. I'll take it,

Post Script

Ryan indicated that we can look forward to a $30 ticket coming on-line at the end of November. Seeing how poorly $20 tickets sell, I'll find it interesting to see how this game does. Will any blog readers buy some? Let us know.

The OLG's labour issues are settling in for the long run. I visited Woodbine this past Sunday and there were no pickets at about 4:00 PM. I hope the workers stick together and manage to get this issue to the desk of the Premier.

I wonder if scratch ticket sales go up in the fall and winter. Last week, the OLG sold about 6 million tickets overall. There are about 100 million available for sale. I intend to track this for a bit.

Happy scratching.

Doug

Crossword #3209 Overtakes Scrabble to Claim the Top Spot

Although Scrabble #3209 only has an estimated 10% of its float left, that still translates into 2 million tickets out there. The game features the second best return rate on prizes less than $100 and the third best Top Prize ratio. Those two factors combine to edge out the second and third rated games.

Your odds to win the $50,000 Grand Prize is 1 in a million and your chance to win a prize of $100 or more are 1 in 2000. You can expect to cash 1 in every 3.84 tickets and to cash something more than the cost of the ticket 1 in every 6.84 tickets. Those are good numbers for a $3 ticket.

 

*** Note***
Because Crossword #3210 is also for sale, I can't find an image of #3209 that I can copy into the blog. Version 3209 is a YELLOW ticket. If you want the game and can't find a yellow ticket, don't worry. Version 3210 is currently the 6th rated game.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Crossword #3209 
2. $3 Scrabble #1835 - Dethroned former champ still a good choice.
3. $1 Bingo Express #1823 - 20% of float left and 2 of 4 Grand Prizes. 
4. $5 Cross Tripler #1830 - Best chance to have a winning ticket that you think is a loser!
5. $3 Super Bingo #3018 - Tommy's kind of game - great small prize availability. 

Games To Avoid

1. $1 5X The Money #1838 - burn them, if you can.
2. $1 Red Hot 50's #1827 - Begins life as a stinker. It's a long way up for this one. 
3. $5 Frenzy #1853 - Victim of my bias. Buy em if you like em. 
4. $2 Fast 200's #1817 - Mini Me version of Frenzy
5. $5 Crystal 7's #1848 - a $5 Game devoid of Grand Prizes. Why does it continue? GP is <$100k.

Games To Play If All You Want Is A Grand Prize

1. 500 Frenzy
2. Red Hot 50s
3. Fast 200s
4. Cash Blast
5. Extreme

Games Devoid Of Grand Prizes

• Sweet Cash
• Crystal 7's
• 5X The Money

Comings and Goings

Tetris was retired with zero grand prizes and 15% (394,000) of its float left. Its run was only 4 months long.

New for gaming pleasure are $1 Red Hot 50's and a replacement for Fortune, $10 Diamond. The former is destined to the stinker list and the latter begins its life in 9th place. The game has good potential. See the comments to last weeks entry for a more detailed review.

Personal Play

My week started off well with $21 worth of cashes on Scrabble and Crossword from 6 tickets. That was the high point of the week as the Cross Tripler and Classic White were both duds. I have purchased 5 Classic Whites to date without any success. I doubt that I'll buy any more. Oh yeah, I lost my obligatory $11 on Lotto Max. One of my lines actually had the first two numbers drawn, in order. But alas, it also turned out to be a loser.

Post Script

The OLG labour dispute continues with appeals now being made to the Premier by affected employees that if she cares so much about the pensions of Ontarians, why is she allowing some of her own employees to lose theirs. Why indeed.

I am in the process of relocating. I expect to be without internet service for a period of time. If I don't post for a while, that is the reason. I'll be back just as soon as I can.

Until then, happy scratching.


Doug

Scrabble #1835 Maintains Its Top Spot

15X The Money was dropped from the Outstanding Prize list this past week leaving Scrabble as the top choice. The top rated game is already long in the tooth with only 13% of its float left (410,000 tickets est.) but tickets are still to be had in my neck of the woods. Crossword #3209 is closing the gap on the top choice and although only 11% of its float remains that represents 2.3 million tickets. The OLG may pull version 3209 as version 3210 is also for sale and fully 89% of its float is left. At my seller, they had 3210 on display with 3209 tickets stashed under the counter. Don't be fooled - it's the 3209 version that you should be searching for.

Scrabble currently offers one chance in 410,000 to win the Grand Prize and one chance in 2307 to win a prize of $100 or more. It has a positive ratio of 1.64 between the money left for Top Prizes and the number of Top Prizes left to be claimed.

Top Rated Games 

1. $3 Scrabble #1835 - Strong choice.
2. $3 Crossword #3209 - Very good small prize availability plus positive ratio. 
3. $1 Bingo Express #1823 - 2 of 4 Grand Prizes left and 21% of the float.
4. $3 Super Bingo #3018 - Top game for small prize availability
5. $5 Cross Tripler #1830 - Strong on all measures

Games to Avoid

1. $1 5X The Money #1838 - Horrible choice
2. $1 Red Hot 50's #1827 - New game begins life at the bottom. 
3. $5 500 Frenzy #1853 - Blog visitors have won three $500 prizes. 
4. $2 Fast 200's #1817 - One chance in 800 to win $200 prize. 
5. $3 Tetris #1832 - Devoid of Grand Prizes

Games to Play If All You Want Is A Grand Prize

1. 500 Frenzy
2. Red Hot 50's
3. Fast 200's
4. Extreme
5. Cash Blast

Games Devoid Of Grand Prizes

• 5X The Money
• Tetris
• Crystal 7's
• Sweet Cash

Comings and Goings

20X The Money and 15X The Money were both retired this past week. We did not care about the former and we mourn the latter.

Red Hot 50's and Wild Card were introduced. Red Hot 50's has nothing to recommend but it is a $1 game. Wild Card has lots of ways to win and an excellent 1 chance in 545 to win $100 or more.

Personal Play

Two Classic Whites returned nothing. Two Crossword Triplers contained one winner of $20. Two 500 Frenzy returned nothing and 1 Scrabble was a dud. That is a sub 50% return on the week. Boo!

Post Script

There is lots of disruption surrounding the modernization (privatization) of Sudbury Downs, Brantford, and Woodbine. These folks have been without a contract since May and they know darned well that the privatization of their respective areas is going to mean a wage and benefit cut for them.

We know from the Ontario East bundle that the terms of the contract only requires that the operator protect wages and positions for one year.

I have empathy for Tony Bitonti (one web poster referred to him as Tony Baloney) who has the unenviable task of communicating the OLG nonsense to the media. Yes, the OLG cannot negotiate pension provisions for a future owner but you can bet that the pension plan that the new operator will offer the staff will look a lot more like the proposed Ontario Retirement Pension Plan than the plan that current OLG staff pay into. The cruel truth is that Mr. Bitonti and the rest of the OLG Head Office staff will continue to enjoy a high quality pension plan into the future. They've earned that but what about the staff working in sites across the province? Are they to have their benefits gutted as part of the OLG's plan to increase the amount of money they return to the Provincial Treasurer? That little nugget was not highlighted in the Modernization Plan. http://www.olg.ca/about/modernizing_lottery_and_gaming_project_status.jsp
 
I am approaching the last quarter of 2015 which means that I'm looking at ways to improve this blog for 2016. CL66 and Tommy have each brought useful insights to the blog that readers enjoy. If anyone has any ideas about how I might better incorporate their analysis or how I might improve the appearance of the blog, please let me know.

Good luck on tonight's Lotto Max.


Doug

Scrabble #1835 Overtakes 15X The Money - Both Games Near Their End Dates

Scrabble #1835, with only 14% of its float left (+/- 3%) has taken over from 15X The Money which has 12% of its float left (+/- 3%). I have given up on 15X The Money and Scrabble is becoming progressively more rare in my neighborhood.

Each game has an identical outstanding Top Prize ratio of 1.69. 15X The Money has 260 prizes of $100 or more left and 20% of the money associated with those prizes. Scrabble has 197 such prizes representing 25% of the prize money. Scrabble offers a .9% higher small prize return ratio and its that difference that makes the difference between the two. Your chances to find the 15 X Money Grand Prize are 1 in 380,000 whereas they are 1 in 450,000 for Scrabble. Both games should be gone before too long.


  

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Scrabble #1835 - New Leader
2. $3 15X The Money #1840 - limping into the great beyond. 
3. $3 Crossword #3209 - Strong candidate to head the list soon. 
4. $3 Super Bingo #3018 - Takes a long time to lose my $3. 
5. $1 Bingo Express #1823 - Cheat the parking meter and pick one up. 

Games To Avoid

1. $1 5X The Money #1838 - If it's the only ticket for sale - leave it. 
2. $5 500 Frenzy #1838 - Three blog contributors have snagged a $500 prize. That's a first!
3. $2 Fast 200's #1817 - 800 to 1 to win $200 versus 550 to 1 to win $500 for Frenzy. 
4. $3 Tetris #1832 - My seller still has some - no thanks. 
5. $2 10X The Money #1839 - Bad all around.

Games to Play If All You Want Is A Grand Prize

1. Frenzy
2. Fast 200's
3. Extreme
4. Cash Blast
5. 15X The Money

Games Devoid of Grand Prizes

• 5X The Money
• Tetris
• Crystal 7's

Comings and Goings

Nothing to report this week although my update is as of yesterday and I note that CL66 has posted a review for the new game "Wild Card". See last weeks post for the details.

Personal Play

Eight Super Bingos and four Scrabbles returned two winners totaling $9. I am in a bad rut and I'm thinking of breaking out by reaching down my list a ways. You have to like the games you're playing and I don't like Super Bingo at all. Maybe some Cross Triplers or Classic Whites are in order.

Post Script

Some good advice has been posted this past week by Tommy and JayDee.

Lots of discussion over the location of winners and whether things may not be as they appear. I have to preface my comments with the statement that seeing patterns is an ability that has contributed to the evolutionary success of our species. Seeing patterns that are not there does not necessarily hurt us but being right certainly helps.

A while back I set out to collect the data as to where winning scratch tickets were sold. I abandoned the mission mid-stream. There is too much information that is needed to make the project reasonable in scope. The OLG arrays sales data by Census Metropolitan Area (CMA). If we knew, over a substantial period of time, what the sales data was for Scratch tickets and we knew the Grand Prize distribution then we could start to form some conclusions about whether what we are seeing is reasonable. We have to remember that although a winner may come from a small town that there are many many small towns out there and only one Toronto. Like Tommy, I'm not convinced that it is true but I am also not 100% sure that it is not. I am confident that there is no direct finagling but it is possible that winning tickets are randomly produced and delivered to particular CMAs to ensure that all parts of the province get to share in the thoughts that they too could win. The OLG might call that a Marketing Strategy.

The proof of this would be in the contract the OLG signs with the ticket producer but I have no doubt that such details are protected from Freedom Of Information legislation as being counter to the financial interests of the Province of Ontario. The truth will become all the more opaque when the OLG contracts out the entire Scratch Ticket business to a third party.

I chuckled at the lament from one poster who longed for the days where the numbers came out of a machine with balls. Take a look at this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DxUvX5tsqY . An axiom when I was young was , "Don't believe anything you hear and only half of what you see. ". That should be updated to "Don't believe anything you hear or see!"

I'm still trying to figure out who owns the 49% of the company that has been awarded the Ontario East Gaming bundle. There has been a flurry of activity with the CEO of the Great Canadian Gaming Company (owner of the company that won the bid) phoning the Mayor of Belleville. The winning company has ideas around location and the Mayor has three possible sites but the OLG has been very clear in saying that nothing has been decided as of yet. Belleville may find that what the "civic minded" casino company has in mind may not correspond with what the democratically elected representatives of the good people of Belleville have envisioned. More to come....


Doug

15X The Money - On Life Support But Still the Choice

Surprisingly, the top rated game remained on the Outstanding Prize list for another week and as such remains the top choice. Reports from posters indicate that supplies are dwindling everywhere. I'm keeping an eye open for them but I'm not very hopeful of finding any.

An estimated 390.000 tickets remain which means that only 10,000 (+/- 6000) were sold last week. Closing in on the heels of top game is Scrabble #1835. Both games are good choices and with 18% of its float remaining, Scrabble's tickets may be easier to find. Both games have only one Grand Prize left to claim so be sure to check with the seller that the prize is still there at the time of purchase.

 

Top Rated Games

1. $3 15X The Money #1840
2. $3 Scrabble #1835 - Heir apparent. 
3. $3 Super Bingo #3018 - Best small prize return of any game.
4. $3 Crossword #3209 - Above average on all rated factors.
5. $1 Bingo Express #1823 - Two of Four Grand Prizes remain and only 27% of the float.

Games to Avoid

1. $1 5X The Money #1838 - No Grand Prizes and nothing else either
2. $5 500 Frenzy #1853 - If you like it, play it. 
3. $2 Fast 200's #1817 - See above
4. $4 Cash For Life #1167 - One of three Grand Prizes left and 2/3 of the float.
5. $3 Tetris #1832 - Devoid of Grand Prizes.

Games to Play If All You Want is a Grand Prize

1. 500 Frenzy
2. Fast 200's
3. Extreme #1780
4. 15 X The Money
5. Cash Blast

Games Devoid of Grand Prizes

• 5X The Money
• Tetris

Comings and Goings

A new version of Cashingo arrived this week. It's pretty good for top end prizes but, oddly, there are no prizes between $75 and $500. In order for both of those things to be true there has to be a paucity of mid-level prizes. Tommy's comment to this effect is bang on.

Personal Play

A smorgasbord of tickets representing all five top rated games returned $10 for the $40 outlay. Unacceptable!

Post Script

New poster Randy raised an interesting point as it relates to Inter-provincial Lottery Corporation games. For newer readers, the Inter-Provincial Lottery Corporation is simply an organization made up by all of the regional lottery corporations in Canada. (Atlantic, Quebec, Ontario, Western, BC) It is responsible for games that are run country-wide. That includes 649 and Lotto Max and, in our case, most of the $10 and $20 games. Randy noticed that the posted outstanding prize information for the Inter-Provincial game Extraordinaire was different for the Western Lottery than for the OLG. The game information for these games is updated weekly instead of daily as is the case with OLG games.

I'm sure that no one who is employed in any of the provincial lottery businesses would imagine that anyone would be poking around the various provincial sites comparing information but that is no excuse. Randy is not alone and having games taken down from one site and not another or having the number of outstanding Grand Prizes vary between sites raises legitimate concerns. I am confident that the differences are little more than lack of attention but I will follow-up with the OLG just to be sure.

I was at Woodbine the other week at which time I had an enjoyable chat with a woman who was manning the mini-kiosk representing the Responsible Gaming Resource Centre (www.rgrc.org). They are tucked into a broom closet at Woodbine. It compares poorly with the space and location provided to its sister organization in Quebec at the Casino de Lac Leamy. It always irritates me that the OLG constantly toots its own horn about its self-exclusion program and its "Know your Limit" message. This messaging flies in the face of all of its decisions to increase gaming revenue in the province. Why not release the OLG from this conflicting mandate and turn over that part of the puzzle to organizations like the RGRC?

Lastly, the OLG announced today that the "Eastern Bundle" has been awarded to something called the "Ontario Gaming East Limited Partnership". This corporate entity is 50.1% owned by the Great Canadian Gaming Corporation. Who owns the other 49.1%? No idea and I expect that no one can find out. They will take over the Thousand Island Casino, the slots at Kawartha Downs, and build and operate a casino in either Belleville or Quinte West, depending upon future decisions made by the city councils of those two communities. I'll have more to say on this subject next week.

And lastly, the OLG staff in the Sault voted to join the Public Service Alliance of Canada last week. I suspect that they will need a collective voice over the course of the next few years.

Cheerio.

Doug

 

 


  

15X The Money - The Best But Going, Going, ....

Another 30,000 - 15X The Money tickets were sold this past week and the remaining Grand Prize remains an illusive dream. The game has been de-activated yet several posters have had success finding tickets in their respective areas. Although only 12% of the Top Prizes remain to be claimed for the game, 20% of the Top Prize money remains to be claimed. In addition to the outstanding $75,000 Grand Prize there is one of three $7,500 prizes and one of four $5,000 prizes.

Your odds to snag the biggy are one in 400,000. Only 20X The Money has better odds to win a Grand Prize but that version of the current family of games has a very poor small prize return.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 15X The Money #1840
2. $3 Scrabble #1835 - 2nd best top prize ratio and an average small prize return.
3. $3 Super Bingo #3018 - slightly positive top prize ratio and the best small prize availability
4. $3 Crossword #3209 - above average on all factors.
5. $1 Bingo Express #1823 - 450,000:1 to win $10,000 for a buck. 

Games To Avoid

1. $1 5X The Money #1838 - terrible choice
2. $5 500 Frenzy #1853 - rating system does not like it but posters have won two of the $500 prizes. 
3. $2 Fast 200's #1817 - Terrible small prize return - $200 or bust. 
4. $4 Cash For Life #1167 - 1 of 3 Grand Prizes left and two thirds of the float remains. 
5. $3 Tetris #1832 - no Grand Prizes. 

Games Devoid Of Grand Prizes

• 5X The Money
• Tetris

Comings and Goings

Extraordinary and Silver Gold were retired this past week. Silver Gold never amounted to anything during its innocuous run. All the Grand Prizes were claimed and 22% (600,000 tickets) of the float remained to be sold. Extraordinary was an extraordinary flop. Over seven million tickets from the original float of 15,000,000 were unsold. The game was on the market for almost a year and a half. Four of its $2,000,000 Grand Prizes were returned to lottery heaven when the lottery gods pulled its plug. It will be interesting to see if Extreme does any better.

New to the shelves is a second version of Crossword. The earlier version is about 75% completed. I rate the game in 7th place which is very good to begin its run. The sister version is currently in 4th place so don't worry about which version you buy.

Also new is Bingo Doubler. CL66 and Tommy each have write-ups on the game that are in the comments to last weeks update. I rate the game as mid-pack.

Personal Play

After a good week two weeks ago, last week cut me back to size. Forty-two dollars of tickets (Classic White, Cross Tripler, and 15X The Money) had three winners of $14.

Post Script

Two articles this week from the Sault Star concerning OLG jobs in that community. The first one
( http://www.saultstar.com/2015/08/10/concerns-voiced-over-potential-job-losses-with-privatezation )
speaks to a vote that OLG workers undertook to join the Public Service Alliance of Canada. The workers are concerned that the OLG's Modernization plan may cost jobs in the Sault.

The second article ( http://www.sootoday.com/content/news/details.asp?c=97062 ) details some gobbledygook from OLG Media Relations Manager Tony Bitonti. You see, the OLG Brass swooped in to the Sault for a board meeting last week. The usual fanfare preceded them about all the jobs that the OLG was providing to the community. But it turns out that some of the locals wanted to double check some of the claims and that's when the prevarications were rolled out.

Make no mistake, Modernization = Privatization and those who are wondering how the OLG is going to increase its revenue after inviting private casino operators to build and operate Ontario's casinos are right to be asking questions. Any notion that Stephen Rigby and his band of merry men are going to be bossing American Casino companies around is pure folly. The reverse will be true.

I am of the view that the OLG will never come close to increasing its contributions to the Province by $1.3 billion per year. It could well go down and I'm sure that the brain trust is already preparing speaking points about how horse racing is to blame.

How fitting that Labour Day is approaching. Stick together OLG staff and have a skeptical eye about what you are told!


Doug

15X The Money - "Dead Game Walking" But Still On Top

The top rated game remains 15X The Money. The game has been de-activated meaning that I'm looking for scraps but it remains a solid choice with only 13% of its Top Prizes left to be claimed that represent 21% of the money allocated to the Top Prizes.

Poster JayDee was on the hunt yesterday for these tickets and managed to find quite a few. Check the comments to last weeks post for details.

The game offers one remaining outstanding Grand Prize from an estimated 430,000 tickets. Without that single prize the game would not be recommended so, if you're inclined to buy some, always ask the retailer for an up to date printout of the outstanding Grand Prizes. At present, 5.8 cents of every dollar spent on the game is allocated to that one outstanding Grand Prize. That number is only surpassed by the democratically premised Fast 200's and 500 Frenzy.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 15X The Money #1840
2. $ 5 Cross Tripler #1830 - Solid second choice and lots of tickets available. 
3. $3 Super Bingo #3018 - Best small prize return of any game. 
4. $10 Classic White #1844 - First $10-$20 game to hit the list since Classic Ruby in April. 
5. $3 Crossword #3209 - Strong on all evaluation factors. 

Games to Avoid

1. $1 5X The Money #1838 - 32% of Top Prizes left and 5% of the Top Prize money. 
2. $5 500 Frenzy #1853 - rating system punishes the game but don't hesitate to buy, if you like it. 
3. $2 Fast 200's #1817 - Same as above
4. $4 Cash For Life #1167 - Two of three jumbo Grand Prizes gone and 73% of float remains!
5. $2 10X The Money #1839 - Poorly rated on all factors. 

Games To Play If All You Want Is A Grand Prize

1. 500 Frenzy
2. Fast 200's
3. 15X The Money
4. Fortune
5. Extraordinary

Games Devoid of Grand Prizes

• 5X The Money
• Tetris
• Silver Gold

Comings and Goings

QFG Crossword #3208 was retired with no Grand Prizes remaining and 24 of the 26 million ticket float sold! A huge success for the OLG.

Not much else to report as OLG headquarters is likely operating with skeleton staff. I wonder where folks in Sault Ste Marie vacation? I have a friend who grew up in Thunder Bay. His family cottage was a ten minute drive from his house! Being from Toronto, that always seemed bizarre to me. Anyways, I wish the OLG staff a relaxing, well earned rest.

Personal Play

Four Crystal 7's included two winners of $5 each; four Cross Tripler #1830 included one winner of $30; and three 15X The Money included one winner of $3. In total, $43 from a $49 investment. The extremely good part of this "WDL" (Win disguised as loss: Thanks Tommy) is that the $30 winning ticket was not detected until the ticket was verified at the retailers!

Post Script

Sweet Cash, Cash For Life, Crystal 7's and Cash Blast all took serious hits over the past 10 days. If you're playing those games, do a double take on the numbers before you buy.

Thanks to Tommy for all of his insightful posts this past week. If you don't read the comments to these posts I recommend that you do for last weeks post. Tommy's comments succeed in ensuring that we are all realistic about this nutty endeavour. Here is some useful advice he provided in response to a post from CL66:

1. For those who know what your number crunch is, THAT is where your credibility lies.

2. I'm glad you post the odds with your winning tickets because it's important for blog readers to see how difficult it is to win.

3. One's experience is one's own. As the bottle on my desk says, individual reactions may vary. Symptoms may include nausea (looking at a pile of losing tickets), insomnia (thinking of losing tickets), diarrhea (totally irrelevant here), etc..

4. Readers should keep in mind not to interpret luck for skill. The odds are the odds. Although the number crunch helps steer readers to where the odds are better, they could still be mind boggling.

5. More important than wins are percentages. Winning $50 after spending $100 is similar to winning $5000 after spending $10,000.

6. If we were all to post our losers... ....


And thanks for the responses to Jackson Brown. I was away for several days. Someone posted a similar thing some months ago and I deleted it. I'm very reluctant to do so but attempts to defraud people is not something I can abide by. Those of you who responded to the original post did so in a most entertaining fashion.

Good luck to all.


Doug






  

15X The Money Holds On To Top Spot

The top rated game coughed up a Grand Prize over the past 10 days but continues to hold on to the top placing. The game retains one of its three Grand Prizes with only 15% of its float left to sell. Consequently, the tickets should be entering their "scarcity" phase. Your odds to snag the last Grand Prize are 1:484,620, which is not too good. In fact, the second and third rated games currently offer better odds on winning their respective Grand Prizes. The game does offer the best overall Top Prize money to actual Top Prizes of 1.46:1 which is why the game sits atop the list. That said, we are in a phase where there is no stand-out game. Any of the top rated games are on almost equal footing.

Top Rated Games

1. 15X The Money #1840
2. Cross Tripler #1830 - Strong on all rating factors and 60% of the float remains.
3. Crystal 7's #1848 - Well rated. Equal to Cross Tripler.
4. Scrabble #1835 - Number two on the Top Prize $ to Top Prizes remaining list. 
5. Crossword #3209 - Number 3 small prize availability and a positive Top Prize ratio. 

Games to Avoid

1. 5X The Money #1838 - No Grand Prizes left and lots of tickets to sell. Dangerous. 
2. 500 Frenzy #1853 - See "Comings and Goings" Comment
3. Fast 200's #1817 - Same as above
4. 10X The Money #1839 - 3 of 4 Grand Prizes claimed and 55% of float remains.
5. Tetris #1832 - Devoid of Grand Prizes

Games to Play If All You Want Is The Grand Prize

1. 500 Frenzy
2. Fast 200s
3. Cash Blast
4. Extreme
5. Cash For Life

Games Devoid Of Grand Prizes

• 5X The Money
• Tetris
• Silver Gold
• QFG Crossword

Comings and Goings

Cross Tripler #1810 and the Interprovincial game Classic Ruby were both deleted this past week. The games came on line around the same time. Each had one Grand Prize left to claim. Cross Tripler had 878,000 tickets left to sell at $5 out of an initial float of 8.6 million whereas Classic Ruby had 2.4 million tickets to sell out of a float of 6.8 million. There is a price resistance point in there somewhere.

New to the scene is an inter-provincial game (Extreme Millions) which looks a lot like Extraordinary except some of the Top Prize money is shifted towards the Grand Prizes. The new game has already given up one of its Grand Prizes to a winner in Mitchell, Ontario as reported in the comments to last weeks blog entry. I expect that Extraordinary is on its last legs. Its been on sale since April 2014 and still has half of its float to sell. Lets see if the new ticket prompts some easy sales.

Sweet Cash is a new $3 game most similar to Scrabble. 

Finally, $500 Frenzy is an upscale version of Fast 200's. These games are quite different from the other games and are punished by my evaluation method. I consider them to be outliers and should not be avoided because my method does not like them. $500 Frenzy offers one chance in 560 to Win A Grand Prize of $500 and one chance in 295 to win at least $100. That's not bad. True, the pot of gold offered by large Grand Prizes is missing and your chances to cash for any prize of more than the cost of the ticket is the worst of any game, but both games warrant some consideration.

Personal Play

Ten 15X The Money tickets contained 10 winners totaling $41. Pretty good once you get over the irritation of "winning" your money back. I guess its better than a slot machine that costs you 50 cents per play and the confounded thing acts like you won something when you get 20 cents of your 50 cents returned to you.

Post Script

The summer must be winding down as the number of comments made to the blog are on the upswing. I enjoy reading about how folks are doing and any other irreverent thoughts that people may have. Visitors should check those comments to see CL66's detailed reviews of new games and his charts of odds breakdowns.

This story from Simcoe.com caught my attention this past week: http://www.simcoe.com/news-story/5792716-barrie-gas-station-thief-flees-with-scratch-tickets/ . My immediate thought was to call the police and report TMF as a possible suspect but I don't think that he ever comes further east than the Guelph line. Maybe Darth....

I was in the USA last week and my traveling companion picked up a few scratch tickets. He was a winner with the first $2 ticket that he purchased and he wants you all to know that.

Lastly, I received a message from an individual who had closed down their PlayOLG account due to consistent and painful losses. I want that person to know that being able to identify that they are vulnerable is a clear sign that they're going to get the problem under control. The chart I posted the other week showed clearly that people who have voluntarily entered the "self exclusion" offered by OLG predominantly live in the areas where slot palaces/casinos are located. That stands to reason.

The Play OLG site brings the casino right into your home. What could be more dangerous? Yet the OLG loves to present itself as being concerned about your "responsible" play. Bunkum. It's organizations like this one  http://www.problemgambling.ca or this one http://www.responsiblegambling.org that are truly dedicated to the problem.

The OLG has been mandated to provide lip service to the problem and they do just that but everything they do is designed to put more and more people at risk. That's how they increase the money that they return to the Provincial Treasurer. It's a tough ethical position that Governments everywhere face. It's my view that the OLG should be freed from this inconsistent mandate. Let them concentrate on maximizing profits but give another organization power over how that is ultimately done. Asking the OLG to self police is not fair to them or us. I'd be interested to hear of any other readers experiences on www.playolg.ca


Good Luck to all.


Doug

15X The Money Improves Its Placing

With 18% of the float remaining to be sold, the top rated game retains two of its three Grand Prizes. Players have one chance in 290,000 to find one of the $75,000 winners. It is the second rated game of money spent on the game that goes to the remaining Grand Prizes. You have one chance in 1473 to win any prize of $100 or more. The game returns 4.2% of its revenue to winners of $100 or more and less than the Grand Prize which is the best of all $3 games and third of any game currently for sale.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 15X The Money #1840
2. $3 Super Bingo #3018 -  Excellent small prize availability
3. $3 Crossword #3209 - Good well rounded game
4. $3 Keno #1416 - Another well rounded choice.
5. $5 Crystal 7's #1848 - Top rated non- $3 game

Games to Avoid

1. $2 Fast 200's #1817 - Hard to recommend against it with two winners being reported.
2. $1 5X The Money #1838 - 42% of Top Prizes left but only 23% of Prize Money for them. 
3. $5 Silver Gold #1831 - Lost all of its Grand Prizes this past week.
4. $3 Tetris #1832 - Another game devoid of Grand Prizes
5. $5 20X The Money #1841 - poor on all rated factors. 

Best Games To Play If You Only Want The Grand Prize

1. Fast 200's
2. Cash For Life
3. Cash Blast
4. Aces and 8's
5. Fortune

Games Devoid of Grand Prizes

• Silver Gold
• Tetris
• QFG Crossword

Comings and Goings

Aces and Eights was added this week. I'm always puzzled by the marketing associated with this game. This is the hand that Wild Bill Hickok was reputedly holding when he was shot in the head from behind. And this is a good thing because.....

Regardless, the game is selling well and is already among the top ten rated games.

No games were retired.

Personal Play

Ten 15X The Money tickets contained two winners of $11. With Fast 200's giving up two winners to Scott I may have to venture that way. Go with flow, as they say.

The Wrap

A poster has indicated that a new $25 game is about to come on line. Really? The current $20 game has been on sale for over 15 months and only half of its tickets have been sold. There's over 7 million more of those suckers to sell. I will find it interesting to see if a new shiny game of this sort can spark sales.

I must also note that CL66 and I both have 15X The Money as our top rated game. That's a first and it can only mean one thing - buy something else!

Happy Civic Holiday/Bank Holiday/Simco Day/ Emancipation Day to all.


Doug

Good-Bye Fruit Explosion - Hello 15X The Money

The former top rated game has been deleted from the Outstanding Prize list but not before I was able to absorb some serious loss on the game. Stepping up to take its place is 15X The Money. This game came on line along with sister games at the beginning of May. To date it has sold 79% of its float (+/- 2%) while retaining 2 of its 3 Grand Prizes. The game currently has the highest ratio of Top Prizes left when compared to the money for those top prizes of 1.77. It only returns 58.3% of its revenue to winners of less than $100 which is not very good. The game does return 6.5% of its revenue to winners of $100 or more which  is very good for a $3 game. At present, 7.3 cents of every dollar spent on the game is returned to the two outstanding Grand Prize winners. That is the second best number next to Fast 200's.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 15X The Money #1840 - New leader; can it stay on top?
2. $3 Tetris #1832 - One of two Grand Prizes left and 34% of the float. 
3. $3 Super Bingo #3018 - Best small prize return of any game currently for sale.
4. $5 Cross Tripler #1830 - The only $5 game on the list.
5. $3 Crossword #3209 - decent numbers and plentiful tickets.

Games to Avoid

1. $2 Fast 200's #1817 - Grand Prize or bust.
2. $2 5X The Money #1838 - Only 1 of 5 Grand Prizes remain and 48% of the float to sell. 
3. $5 20X The Money #1841 - Poor numbers on all factors. 
4. $1 10000 Spin #1802 - A dog on all scales. 
5. $2 10X The Money #1839 - Nothing to recommend. 

Games to Play If All You Want Is The Grand Prize

1. Fast 200's
2. Cash Blast
3. 15 X The Money
4. Cash For Life
5. Fortune

Games Devoid Of Grand Prizes

• QFG Crossword

Comings and Goings

Win Take All, Double Cash For Life, and Fruit Explosion were all deleted this past week. Double Cash For Life was a welcomed departure and although Fruit Explosion was the top rated game, only 8% of its float was left to sell and that always represents the end for most games. Win Take All was a surprise as it had 2 of its 7 Grand Prizes left and 22% of its float. I'm not really sure that an error was not made when updating the web site. That's happened before....

Personal Play 

The good news was that I found a trove of Fruit Explosions - bought all 22 of them. Results: 4 winners of $24. Yecch.

In total I cashed on 22 of the 68 tickets I bought and realized a return of 54%, roughly 5% less than I should have expected even eliminating all prizes of $100 or more.

The Wrap

Congratulations to poster Scott Robertson who hit a $200 winner on Fast 200's.

http://s1030.photobucket.com/user/scottydog1719/media/Mobile%20Uploads/DSC_0009_zps4jfbfsax.jpg.html


There is nothing I enjoy more than folks who read this blog, buy from the avoid list, and win! And I mean that. I have been quite diligent in following my own advice over the course of the past three years and I have yet to be rewarded. I think I'll pick up a couple of Fast 200's tickets this week out of respect to Scott.

The family of "Times The Money" games were all introduced at the same time (May 5th). Here are the to date sales figures:

$1 5X The Money - 1.5 million
$2 10X The Money - 1.1 million
$3 15X The Money - 2.5 million
$5 20X The Money - 2.4 million

Pretty clear what games scratch players prefer.

Any Lotto Max winners out there?

Doug

Fruit Explosion #1834 Remains Alive And On Top

Surprisingly, Fruit Explosion remains on the Outstanding Prize list and therefore remains the top choice. The game is on borrowed time and is the solid choice, if you can find any. Ticket sales have predictably dried up. Your chances to win the sole remaining Grand Prize are 245,000:1. I'd like to talk more about the game but I'm afraid that it is pointless. If you can find any - buy them.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Fruit Explosion #1834
2. $3 15X The Money #1840 - 2nd best ratio of Top Prize $ left to claim. 
3. $3 Super Bingo #3018 - 2nd best small prize ratio with an even rating in Top Prize $.
4. $5 Cross Tripler #1830 - Strong on both factors. 
5. $3 Keno #1416 - A weak 5th in the group. 

Games To Avoid

1. $4 Double Cash For Life #1170 - Huge Grand prize, nothing else, and no Grand Prizes remain.
2. $2 Fast 200s #1817 - A one in 800 chance to turn $2 into $200.
3. $1 5X The Money #1838 - Poor on all factors.
4. $1 10000 Spin #1802 - Nothing to recommend.
5. $5 20X The Money #1841 - Only 1 of 8 Grand Prizes remain and 24% of the ticket float to sell.

Games If All You Want Is The Grand Prize

1. Fast 200's
2. Fruit Explosion
3. Cash Blast
4. Silver Gold
5. Cash For Life #1167

Games Devoid Of Grand Prizes

• Double Cash For Life #1170
• Quest For Gold Crossword #3208

Comings and Goings

Money Multiplier and Keno #1415 were retired this past week. Money Multiplier was devoid of Grand Prizes and offered a Grand Prize of $100,000. With 17% of its float left, it was retired just about when one would expect. Keno was a good game that still had a Grand Prize left but it has a sister game that remains for sale and is also a good choice so --- no harm, no foul.

Personal Play

I was lucky enough to discover a stash of Fruit Explosions - bought ten and three 15X The Money. In what is becoming a trend, the supply had six winners that totaled a modest $24. I guess I can't complain but I would like to stumble upon a prize or two that gives my YTD results a boost.

In Conclusion

Congratulations to Shannon who hit with a $300 winner on Scrabble https://www.dropbox.com/s/hf9au10vhx5cqe2/20150709_220937.jpg?dl=0 . There are only 121 of those winners in the entire float of 2.7 million tickets. Good going Shannon and thanks for letting us know.

A note to Amber who was asking about Bingo 3016. I rated the game just outside of the top five and CL66 had it lower. As of today, it has recently lost another Grand Prize leaving 4 of 10 outstanding and 39% (+/- 2%) of its float left to sell. I now rate it 11th overall. While it is not at the top of the list, if she likes the game, I would not hesitate to try it.

This weeks story comes from Fort Erie http://bit.ly/1JXo253 . I feel sorry for the folks at the Fort Erie Race Track as they are in trouble and the cavalry is not coming. When the OLG set out on its "Modernization" mission, it cared not about Horse Racing. The slots at Fort Erie were being hammered by the Casino in Buffalo and the two Niagara casinos would sop up any players who preferred not to cross the border to gamble. When the Premier force fed the priority of the health of the racing industry into the OLG mandate, it was too late to change that direction. The OLG is not going to run slot palaces any longer and the folks who own the Niagara casinos are certainly not going to make a capital investment into the slots at Fort Erie as the OLG Spokesperson pointed out with tact. It's hopeless for them. Still, the interim funding being provided to the racing industry has kept Fort Erie race track afloat for the moment. For those who have never visited, it is a very pretty locale. The Prince of Wales Stakes will be run there on July 28th. Frank Stronach has decided to pursue the Canadian Triple Crown with his Queen's Plate winner, Sharman Ghost, instead of heading south to bigger three-year old races. He is to be applauded for deciding to support Canadian horse racing. The OLG should do as much.

The hunt for more Fruit Explosions continues.


Doug

Fruit Explosion #1834 - One Last Gasp

I have been unable to find any Fruit Explosion tickets over the past 10 days but some posters continue to report that they are out there, somewhere. One poster found 18 of them that contained exactly three $3 winning tickets. My condolences.

The game now has an estimated 8% of its float left or 250,000 tickets. The key to the high rating for the game is that the 8% of Top Prize tickets remaining are worth 20% of the money associated with those tickets. There remains one Grand Prize of $75,000 as well as two $10,000 prizes. I suspect that the game will be de-listed by the time of the next blog update so the time is now.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Fruit Explosion #1834
2. $3 15X The Money #1840 - Made a large move up the ratings this past week.
3. $3 Super Bingo #3018 - Don't forget the on-line component of the game. 
4. $5 Cross Tripler #1830 - Solid if not spectacular choice.
5. $3 Keno #1415 - High cash rate. 

Games To Avoid

1. $4 Double Cash For Life #1170 - Road kill. 
2. $2 Fast 200's #1817 - 2,900 Grand Prizes remain. Whup di- doo. 
3. $5 Money Multiplier #1828 - No Grand prizes left. 
4. $5 20X The Money #1841 - Poorly rated on all factors. 
5. $1 10,000 Spin #1802 - A stinker. 

Games To Play If All You Want Is The Grand Prize

1. Fast 200's - if you think that $200 is a Grand Prize. 
2. Fruit Explosion
3. Cash Blast
4. Cash For Life
5. Win Take All

Games Devoid of Grand Prizes

• Money Multiplier
• Double Cash For Life
• QFG Crossword

Comings and Goings

A new Scrabble game came on line this week. See the analysis by CL66 in the comments to last week's update. He ranks it 11th; I have it 15th. It is a typical $3 game.

There were no games retired this week.

Personal Play

Have I described the boost one gets when cashing in losing tickets only to find that there was a winner tucked in there that you did not identify? Well, the opposite happened to me this week. I thought that I had a $30 winning Cross Tripler ticket only to find out that it was a loser! I can report that the angst is more powerful than the glee.

In Conclusion

I received a direct message this week (not posted to blog) advertising a service that will sell me spells in order to increase my chances of finding a winning ticket. Really? People send money for that?

Thanks for the OLG Key Message document that was sent to me with respect to the de-activation of Double Cash For Life after the last Grand Prize was claimed. I used to contribute to similar documents in a past life so I get a great deal of pleasure reading such documents very closely.

A key message for consumers (us) is that the policy to de-activate games with Grand Prizes of $100,000 or more once the last Grand Prize has been claimed, "is a reflection of research that showed that customers are more likely to stop playing....". Research, you say....interesting.

Later in the document we learn that the policy was put into place in 2008. "The OLG conducted research with consumer groups and consulted with other lotteries...". I wonder who those "consumer groups" actually were? Maybe the Hamilton Branch of the Cash For Life scratch ticket brigade?

It seems to me that the OLG could actually measure this factor directly. In my opinion, almost all scratch ticket players buy on impulse and as a matter of habit. I suspect that there is no measurable difference in sales of games based upon outstanding Grand Prizes regardless of the amount of the Grand Prize. The factors that do impact have to do with the length of time that the game has been on sale and whether players like the structure of the game. Now, don't get me wrong --- I like the policy, it's just that I'm suspicious of the rationale. My argument is that the same policy should apply to all games. Comments welcome.

Here's a story from Global TV http://bit.ly/1LYwzYB that includes graphically the number of folks who have applied for self-exclusion in relation to where Casinos/Slot Palaces are located. Is it any wonder that the OLG wants to build new facilities in the downtown core of cities? Of course not. And we also know that they earn about 25% of their total profits from the very small number of problem gamblers. It's a tough dilemma but the Government of Ontario should at all times be up front and honest about these considerations.

Best.

Doug