Prestige Lumbers Along On Top

Eight days, 300,000 tickets sold, and no Grand Prizes won. Prestige continues its run on top although any of the top games are playable. Eleven cents out of every dollar spent on Prestige is returned to the 9 - one million dollar prizes left to claim. This is second only to the $10 Cash For Life game and Prestige is much stronger than that game in the area of smaller prizes. Personally, I'm bored with the game but I'm going to try to find at least one of them this week.

Top Rated Games

1. Prestige (56% of its tickets left to sell)
2. CFL $10 Game (87%)
3. Money Multiplier (15%)
4. CFL Family $4 Game (87%)
5. $200 Million (52%)

Even after the media blitz for the $200 Million game (which the ad described as "new"), this game continues to struggle with sales. The game has now been on sale for over nine months and over half of its float remains unsold. Message to the Interprovincial Lottery Corporation - Canadians don't like spending $20 on a scratch and win ticket!

Games to Avoid

1. Classic White (8%)
2. Cashingo (9%)
3. Crossword 3203 (6%)
4. Mahjong (67%)
5. QFG Crossword (99%)

$1 - $2 Game Update

Sadly, the $1 CFL Family game coughed up a grand prize. It remains a good game but it is no longer a great game.

$3 Game Update

Slim pickens in this area. Even though Holly Jolly revealed a Grand Prize this past week, it remains the best choice. I'd look elsewhere.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Most of these game are reasonable choices. Avoid Jack Frost.

$10 -$20 Game Update

If anyone is listening in Scratch Ticket headquarters, get rid of Classic White!!! All of the top four prize categories have been won. The most anyone can win on the game is $1000 for your $10 investment. Do it now!

Comings and Goings

The OLG introduced the jumbo Quest for Gold Crossword game this past week. A massive ticket float of over 25 million tickets means that the game will be with us for most of the year. None of the three Crossword games is a good choice. Sadly, this game does not fare well in my rating system. Less than one percent of the revenue is returned to the Grand Prize winners. That is the lowest for any game currently for sale. The chances to win a prize or any prize greater than the cost of the ticket are poor. The money returned to people who win more than $3 and less than $100 is good but not good enough to overcome its drawbacks. I know that new games are popular and if you must, you must. Let me know how it goes.

No games were retired this week.

Personal Play

Five $1 CFL Family tickets returned nothing; 1 Lotto Max ticket returned nothing, and one $10 CFL Family ticket returned $15.  The net loss of $5 is about what one would expect.

Reader Lloyd found a trove of Holly Jolly tickets and scooped up all 17 of them. His return was a disappointing $42 for his $51 investment. I hope that he got $9 of scratching fun.

I note that OLG President Rod Phillips offered his resignation this past week http://bit.ly/LK7qV7 .  
Not surprising. Ever since Godfrey left I expect that things became less comfortable for Rod. The OLG's grand modernization plan is springing leaks all over the place. The centerpiece of the plan was a massive destination casino in Toronto. Nobody wants it. The plans in Ottawa fell through. The Premier forced Mr. Phillips to add the health of the horse racing industry to his list of priorities. That was pretty tough to do when the plan he was hired to implement spelled doom for that industry. I think that what surprised Rod the most was that the subject of having a casino in your municipality brings together a wide variety of public interest groups who are all united in their opposition to the idea. The only ones in favour are the OLG and casino operators. City Councillors everywhere were able to add up lost votes and opted for the safer choice. That's democracy and that spelled a dead end for Rod. Best to head off to greener pastures before you get fingered for the failure of the plan. As a horse racing fan, I'm glad that it is turning out the way that it is.

It's the dog days of winter - may the prospect of a winning ticket keep you warm.

Doug

Prestige Languishes On Top

I have to admit that I'm bored with Prestige but it continues to be the best rated game and it's low sales figures means that it will remain there until at least one more of the 9 - $1 million dollar prizes is claimed.

You presently have one chance in 950,000 to win $1 million for a $10 investment. 10.5 cents of every dollar spent on tickets is being directed to the Grand Prize winners which is second only to the CFL $10 game. Prestige also returns half of total revenue to winners of more than $10 and less than $100 which is far superior to the CFL game. Holly Jolly remains a strong second choice but I am having trouble finding any tickets for sale for that game.


 

Top Rated Games

1. Prestige (59% of tickets left to be sold)
2. Holly Jolly (24%)
3. CFL $10 (93%)
4. Money Multiplier (16%)
5. CFL $1 (87%)

Games to Avoid

1. Classic White (8%)
2. Cashingo (9%)
3. Crossword 3203 (6%)
4. Jack Frost (9%)
5. Mahjong (7%)

$1 - $2 Game Update

The $1 CFL game is the best $1 game that I have ever seen. If you prefer inexpensive games, this is the choice. The $2 CFL game surrendered a Grand Prize last week thereby knocking down its rating.

$3 Game Update

Holly Jolly is a good choice, if you can find any tickets. With an estimated 24% of the float left, they should still be fairly common.

$4 - $5 Game Update

There are two $4 CFL games currently for sale. Each is a reasonable choice but game 1165 (the new one) is definitely better than 1161. Be aware.

$10 - $20 Game Update

A comment posted this week tipped us to the introduction of Classic Gold and the retirement of Classic White. Well, the first tip happened but the OLG, or more correctly the Inter-provincial Lottery Corporation, is taking its last chance to flog Classic White before it fades away. There are no Grand Prizes left in Classic White and, by policy, it should be withdrawn.

Comings and Goings

Fast 200's was retired this week. Too bad, it was a good game. The Grand Prize was only $200 but there were still over 700 of them left to claim. It was the top rated game in the $1 -$2 game quadrant, before the arrival of $1 CFL, and still had 20% of its float left to sell. Don't like the decision.

Classic Gold was introduced. It is an inter-provincial game.  With 9.6% of total revenue dedicated to prize winners of $100 or more, it ranks at the low end of $10 - $20 games. Your chance to win any prize or any prize greater than the cost of the ticket is also poor. CFL, Prestige, and $200 Million are all better choices than this game.

Personal Play

I jumped into the CFL pool this week. I purchased 2 - $1 tickets, 2 - $2 tickets and one each of the $4 and $10 games. I got my money back on the $10 game and won a free ticket on the $2 game. That free ticket turned out to be worth $2 yielding a total return of $12 for the $20 investment.

For this week, I am following the advice of a comment left by a reader that recommends Lotto Max. This weeks draw is for $50 million with an additional dozen $1 million prizes to be won. I'll buy one and add it to my Instant Win purchases for the week.

To close, I received my first critical comment this week to the blog. It had to happen. Give it a read.

Doug

It's 2014 and Prestige is Back on Top

My apologies for the delay in posting this first blog update for 2014. I made a last minute decision to spend a week in Florida with a friend and thus was unable to stick to my normal schedule. I'm very sorry to have missed the miserable weather of last week. I hope that all readers are optimistic with visions of lottery wins dancing around in their heads for 2014.

After watching Money Multiplier climb the rating scale until it reaching its apex just before Christmas, it quickly surrendered two of its Grand Prizes knocking it back down. It remains a playable game with two of its seven Grand Prizes left to be claimed. The problem is that there is only an estimated 18% of its float left to sell which means that you will be lucky if you are able to find any tickets.

In its place, Prestige regained its top billing. A lucky player in Peterborough claimed one of its $1 million Grand Prize this past week. If I am not mistaken, all three of the winners in this game have been located in Ontario and it is an inter-provincial game.  If you believe in random distribution then this should have no impact upon your decision making process. Personally, I am impacted by that fact although I should not be. I may be looking in other places until such time as the distribution of winners flattens out a bit.

   

Top Rated Games

1. Prestige (59%)
2. Holly Jolly (25%)
3. CFL Family 1166 (97%)
4. CFL Family 1163 (87%)
5. Money Multiplier (18%)

Games to Avoid

1. Classic White (8%)
2. Cashingo (9%)
3. Crossword 3203 (6%)
4. Jack Frost (36%)
5. Cherry Triple (45%)

More on the CFL Family games below.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Hello to a $1 and a $2 Cash For Life game. Each is rated highly. Knock yourself out with these inexpensive games.

$3 Game Update

Holly Jolly is still looking good. Two of the three Grand Prizes remain to be claimed and only 25% of the float left to sell. That yields a one in 784,000 chance to win $75,000 for a $3 investment.

$4 - $5 Game Update

The new Cash For Life game and Money Multiplier are both good choices.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Avoid Classic White and Instant Gift Pack. Any of the remaining three is a good choice.

Comings and Goings

Five games have been retired over the course of the past two weeks. Each of them was long in the tooth and needed to be sent to Instant Game Retirement Acres.

What we have received in their place is a suite of new Cash For Life games - there is a $1, $2, $4 and $10 version of each. These are always popular games and it will be interesting to track sales of the Cash For Life brand over various price points.

Someone in the marketing department at the OLG will be receiving a gold star as the games all look attractive. I have been stumped in how to evaluate the games as each of the $1, $2, and $4 games incorporate the element of a free ticket for the next game up the ladder. Very clever. The $1 game is a terrific $1 game with chances to win any prize of 1 in every 2.52 tickets. That is the best of any game currently available for sale. Your chances to win any prize more than the price of the ticket is one in every 4.13 tickets which is second only to Instant Gift Pack which is a $10 game!

I have been trying to determine how to evaluate the games at a detailed level. I believe that the OLG is counting every free ticket as a deduction from the total revenue to the game to which the free ticket applies. I have been counting the free ticket as worth the percent return of the game multiplied by the value of the ticket. This produces two different results - mine is from the perspective of the player and the OLG is from the perspective of the seller. I'm going to have to mull this over a bit more. In the meantime, go along with the hype.

Personal Play

2013 ended with a cash rate of 38% and a final return on investment of 72%. Each of the numbers was marginally above what would be expected. On a weekly basis, I averaged $35 worth of tickets per week and cashed for $25 per week. The loss of $10/week is somewhat higher than I want. As a result, I will be paring back my level of play this year to about $25/week.

I purchased two Prestige tickets and two Holly Jolly tickets this past week. Both Holly Jolly's were losers and one of the Prestige tickets was worth $20.

There are several interesting messages in the comment section of the last blog update. A word to the wise from one reader who thought that he had won $200 only to find out when he cashed the ticket that it was worth $1350! This happened to me as well when I discovered that my $5 winner was actually worth $15. Not quite the same surprise, I admit, but the same principle applies. Be on top of what you are doing if you want to ensure that you are not a victim of another's transgressions. There should never be any surprises when you pass your ticket under the scanner and you should never throw a ticket away without scanning it. It's always possible for any of us to err.

Ryan reports that he is engaged by Emerald Seven's. He will be buying these tickets exclusively over the next little while and reporting his success. I'll be sure to pass that information along.

Now that the holiday season is behind us, lets get back into full Instant Game swing. Good luck to all.

Doug