Cash for Life Family $4 Stays On Top

With two Grand Prizes left to claim and 2.6 million tickets left to sell, +/- 3%, the top rated game maintained its position over the course of the past week. That will change once the next Grand Prize for the game is claimed.

 The $1 CFL game is actually the top rated game but with the small number of reported prizes, we can only state a rating to +/- 25% and that is too large a margin to be relied upon. The game has one Grand prize left so if you can find any tickets for sale (I can’t, but a reader did) then give it a try.

Last week saw Grand Prizes claimed for QFG Crossword, Money Multiplier, and CFL Family $10. If your priority is winning a Grand Prize then Cross Tripler #1755 is your game. Your odds to win one of the four remaining $100,000 Grand Prizes are a low 221,000:1.

Top Rated Games

1. CFL Family $1 (13% of float left to sell)
2. CFL Family $4 (38%)
3. Prestige (42%)
4. Cross Tripler #1755 (11%)
5. CFL Family $2 (20%)

 Games to Avoid

1. Cash In (14%)
2. QFG Crossword (41%)
3. Bingo (62%)
4. Crossword (6%)
5. Blazing Sevens (71%)

Note that there are two versions of CFL $4 and Cross Tripler currently for sale. Be careful to choose the correct version.

$1 - $2 Game Update

It remains good days for this category of game. Either CFL game or Red Hot 50’s are good choices.

$3 Game Update

Keno #1412 is the recommended game. Be careful to avoid the new version #1414.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Avoid Cash In and 20X Lucky.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Avoid CFL Family $10 and Classic Gold. It has been eight months and almost 4 million tickets sold since $200 Million revealed a Grand Prize. Is it due or is it a dud? The game has been on sale for over a year and there is a new $20 game available. 

Comings and Goings

Cherry Triple was retired this past week. It was a lousy $1 game that had a permanent place on the “Games to Avoid” list. There was one grand prize and 757,000 tickets left to sell +/- 6%.

A second Keno game came on line this week. This version looks very much like the earlier version. The earlier game is, however, in an advantageous position so buy tickets for version 1412 and not the new 1414. One thing I like about this game is that the prize distribution looks like a pyramid. There should be progressively more of every prize working down to the smallest prize. That is not always the case. Just personal preference.

Personal Play

Six CFL Family $4 games started off with a bang with a $20 winner. The next five contained one $4 winner. For me in 2014, breaking even feels good. My cash rate is now 33% and my ROI is 63%.

Other News

The OLG is getting ready to launch its on-line gaming site. This is part of their "Modernization" plan. Other provinces already have a functioning site. The Quebec site is www.espacejeux.com .

Once up and running, you will be able to purchase certain lotto games, play on-line poker, and play slots on-line. According to their plan, overall slot play will flat line and even decrease in the province due to demographics. This initiative will bring gaming "closer to the customer". They project to earn an additional $100 million per year from the initiative. Other "modernization" plans that all involve having the private sector get involved, do it better, and increase revenue, will add an additional $180 million to the provincial coffers annually. 

I don't buy any of it. The OLG is aggressive in their clap trap about responsible play and ensuring that minors can't get on-line but, in my view, their actions belie their media lines. Slot machines are an evil menace and letting people play from home on their computers will not be good news for players who are addicted to those machines. There are many seniors who play slots but they can only do so when they actually get to a slot location. Now they'll be able to do it from their own bedroom. That cannot be good. I believe that people will slowly get their fill of sinking money into slot machines and that the revenue they generate will drop as a result. It is precisely that that the OLG is concerned about. Those machines account for over 80% of their profit. This desperate move on the part of the OLG will target players who have a weakness in this area and not the occasional players who play responsibly. 

But that's just me. If you're interested, you can follow them on twitter @PlayOLG. You can also follow me @Usockem. 

It looks like spring has arrived. Hats off to everyone for surviving the past two months. 

Doug  

Cash for Life Family $4 Takes Top Spot

I had a difficult time last week locating Cash for Life Family $2 tickets. They were nowhere to be found in my area, nor were the $1 version of the game. Happily, one of the two remaining Grand Prizes for that game was claimed last week thereby knocking the game down the rating chart. Its $4 sister game has overtaken in the rankings and now rests on the top of the chart. This game has two of its initial three Grand Prizes left to be claimed and an estimated 42% of its float left to claim. Players have one chance in 2.5 million to win $1000/week for life or, if it suits your fancy, a one-time payment of $675,000. Be careful if you choose to play this game as another version of the game, #1161, is for sale at the same time. That game is selling more slowly than the Family version of the game. Also note that the $1 version of the game is our actual top rated game although my confidence in the estimated number of tickets left to sell remains shaky.

Top Rated Games

1.       Cash for Life $1 (estimated 13% of its float left to sell)

2.       Cash for Life $4 #1165 (42%)

3.       Prestige (42%)

4.       Cash For Life $10 (60%)

5.       Cross Tripler #1755 (12%)

Games to Avoid

1.       Cash In (15%)

2.       Cherry Triple (24%)

3.       Quest for Gold Crossword (46%)

4.       Bingo (66%)

5.       Fat Cat (33%)

$1 - $2 Game Update

Either Cash for Life or the Red Hot 50’s Game are good choices. Avoid the rest.

$3 Game Update

The top game in this group was retired last week despite two remaining Grand Prizes and an estimated 900,000 tickets left to sell. Low sales, no doubt, is the reason why. The top rated game left is Keno #1412.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Avoid Cash In and Aces and Eights.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Avoid Classic Gold

Comings and Goings

Super Bingo was retired as mentioned above. It was the best rated $3 game and I’m sad to see it go. Two Grand Prizes each worth $50,000 went down with it.

A new Money Multiplier game #1769 was launched this past week. I like the fact that it has a present high of 6.4% of its total revenue returned to winners of between $100 and the second prize for the game. Most games are between 2 and 3 percent in this area. Of course, you pay for it with less prizes of less than $100 but I like the trade off. The only minor complaint I have is that there are fewer second prizes (4), than Grand Prizes (6). I don’t like that I have less chance to uncover a $25,000 prize than I do a $100,000 prize.

Personal Play

I managed to find a single $2 Cash for Life ticket that returned my $2. The remaining $4 Cash for Life tickets contained one $4 winner.

I also played the Poker Lotto game for $9 based on the recommendations from the comments section of the blog. I received an instant return of $5 and nothing on the draw that night. What is strange is that my three hands contained cards from 8 differing denominations (Ace – Deuce). I had zero correct on any line for the draw. What are the chances that all five cards drawn (there was a pair) would all be from the five denominations that I was missing? About 120-1! I need someone to explain to me why unusually unlucky outcomes happen to me with regularity but I can never win a decent prize. I’m sure that there is a reasonable explanation somewhere.

Other Topics

As I follow up to last week’s entry, I found an interesting story on line yesterday.  http://bit.ly/RnxoRN Whether the player was “cheating” or not is a subject of interest but I found the reader comment posted by glistens1 to be of interest. He/she suggests that how the lottery folks define the term random may be different than how you or I define the term. That may well be the case. It’s possible that tickets are distributed randomly but also towards rural areas more than overall sales would suggest. I’m not suggesting that it is so but it has tweaked my interest.

I close by declaring that I am not a fan of the “OLG Modernization” plan. I will write more on it in the future. You can familiarize yourself with what they plan to do, including on line slots and lottery ticket purchases, here. 

Best.

Doug

Cash For Life $2 Takes Over the Top Spot

I'm back from my vacation in Dubai where I can assure everyone there are no Scratch and Win tickets for sale. During my absence, Cash In got wiped out with all four of its remaining Grand Prizes being claimed.

The new top rated game is the $1 Cash for Life game but I really cannot recommend it due to the very limited sample size of top prizes that is recorded for the game. Many readers ask me where I get the figures I use when I speak to the number of tickets remaining. I estimate that number based upon the sample of tickets sold as represented by the reported top prizes. More information on this is included at the end of this entry. Although the $1 Cash For Life is the top rated game, the game only reports on the 15 total prizes that are recorded on the web site. With such a small sample, I can only state the numbers +/- 25%. That is way too much variation. Instead, I will recommend the second rated game, $2 Cash For Life. This game has 2 of its original 3 Grand Prizes left to claim and only 23% of its float left to sell +/- 2%. This is the first time since I began this blog that a $1 - $2 game has been top rated. It means that I can either get lots of tickets or save money this week. I wonder what I'll do?

 

Top Rated Games

1. Cash For Life $1 (13% of float left to sell)
2. Cash For Life $2 (23%)
3. Prestige (43%)
4. Cash For Life $4 (45%)
5. Cash For Life $10 (61%)

Note: The Cash For Life Family is dominating the ratings at present. If you are playing the $4 version be careful to play game #1165 and not game #1161.

Games to Avoid

1. Cash In (15%)
2. Cherry Triple (24%)
3. QFG Crossword (52%)
4. Fat Cat (35%)
5. Blazing 7s (79%)

$1 - $2 Game Update

Either Cash for Life is a good choice. Even Red Hot 50s is a good choice for those seeking a small but frequent Grand Prize.

$3 Game Update

Super Bingo continues its climb up the ratings. It is the first $3 game in some time to be rated as being playable.

$4 - $5 Game Update

The Cash For Life 1165 is a good choice as is Cross Tripler 1755. If you like the Cross Tripler game, take care to play 1755 and not 1766.

$10 - $20 Game Update

All the games here are a reasonable choice with the exception of Classic Gold.

Comings and Goings

Monopoly was retired this past week. It had one Grand Prize left and a modest rating. It will not be missed.

Tetris and a new $20 game were introduced. Tetris begins life as a mid range $3 game. Its potential will be determined by when and if its two Grand Prizes are claimed. If they remain unclaimed for some time then the game has the potential to move up the ratings.

The new $20 game is an inter-provincial game. Extraord is almost identical to $200 Million. The prizes are the same but the new game has a few more losing tickets tossed in. I find it interesting that this game has come on line. The old $20 game has been on sale for over a year and they are selling slowly. Canadians simply do not like to spend that much money on a scratch ticket. Now with two games on the market and people's propensity to choose new games over older ones, I will predict that the $200 Million game is in trouble. There are still over 7 million of these tickets left to sell and I have no idea how they will manage to sell them. It remains a better choice than the new game so if you like $20 games, feel free to help the sales for the $200 Million game.

Personal Play

A mixed bag of tickets a few weeks back contained a $25 Cash In winner plus some smaller prizes. I am now cashing at a rate of 33% and my ROI is 65%.

Other Comments

I want to clarify to readers how I estimate the size of ticket floats remaining for various games. I know the size of the initial float from the game sheet. I then assume that the number of top prizes claimed, as indicated on the outstanding prize chart, is a representative sample of the entire game. For example, the $2 CFL game began play with 2154 top prizes being listed on the OLG site. At present, 500 remain. That is 23.2% of those prizes. I project that sample across the entire game. Therefore, because the game began play with 3,060,00 tickets I would estimate that 710,000 remain to be sold. How accurate is that sample? There is math available to work this out. In this case, it is accurate to +/- 2%, 19 times out of twenty.

I get into trouble when the sample size gets smaller. For example, Prestige only lists 205 top prizes. The math would suggest that the estimate for that game is +/- 7% 19 times out of 20. When I estimate its remaining float at 42%, I should more accurately state a range of 35% - 49%.

I will state these numbers with that caveat for the next little while although I'm not sure that readers wish to see that. Please post a message if you have any thoughts on the subject.

It's good to be home - where's my lucky scratching loony?

Doug