The World of Scratch Tickets Returns to Normal

The OLG has opened its prize office again (with safety protocols) which has no doubt flushed out all the winners who had been unable to cash their prizes. Here is the current list of games along with my recommendations;

Very Good

$3 #3229 Crossword ; $5 #2212 5X The Cash ; $5 #3104 The Big Spin ; $10 #2190 Sonic Multiplier.

Good

$5 #2180 Bingo Doubler, $5 #2136 Cross Tripler; $10 #3147 The Bigger Spin; $20 #2151 Silver Stacks.

Poor

$2 # 2103 Cashilicious; $3 #3030 Bingo ; $10 #2154 Chrome; $20 #2056 200x Multiplier.

Terrible

$3 #2191 Cash Words; $5 #3103 The Big Spin. 

All other games are in the neutral range. 

I haven't been to my local seller since the virus arrived. I have decided that it is safe for me to walk across the street, put my mask on, and spend two minutes picking out some tickets. I hope that Dr Tam approves. 

OLG News

With the velocity that the news cycle works these days, I have no doubt that most people have forgotten that Premier Ford tasked the Finance Minister, Rod Phillips, with looking into the bonuses that were paid to OLG Executives during the pandemic. In my earlier post I pointed out that it was Mr Phillips himself who was the benefactor of similar bonuses when he served as the CEO of the OLG. I've been scouring the media for word on how Rod is handling his assigned task. So far, no news. Hmmm. 

I noted that a group titled "Casino Host Municipalities Group" has been lobbying Premier Ford to loosen the restrictions that casinos would have to comply with if they re-open. This group is comprised of the Mayors of municipalities where casinos are located. It must be nice for the casino companies to be getting Mayors of cities to be doing their bidding. Under phase 3 re-opening the casinos will only be able to admit 50 people at a time. The casino operators, through their spokespeople (The Mayors), say that they should be able to allow many more in and to do so safely. Let's see, you're sitting in a place with recirculated air for prolonged periods of time, enclosed with no windows, sharing chairs, touching slot machines and money. I can't think of any "business" at higher risk of contagion than a casino with the possible exception of a strip club. There is one of them in Toronto that re-opened and when some patrons tested positive some time later, the authorities were unable to contact trace the cases backwards as the patrons had provided false identities. Beautiful!

I'm confident that the Premier will give the casino operators the consideration that they are due - nada! And shame on the mayors who are being cuckolded by these casino poo-bahs. 

Doug

Strange Days Indeed

Now that we are 100 days into the world of Covid, I decided to do a blog update. Personally, I have not been purchasing any tickets but I can feel the urge returning, bit by bit. My local variety store has been open almost throughout this ordeal but I've been too cautious to go inside.That could change shortly.

When I reviewed the outstanding prize information that I use for the updates, I was shocked at the number of games that were in positive status. Many were in unbelievably strong "buy" positions. In fact, it was so strong as to not be possible.

After thinking about the situation for a while, the eureka moment struck me. What's going on is that OLG Prize Center has been closed since min-March. At present, people can cash winning tickets of less that $1000 at local retailers, if those retailers have a sufficient float. Tickets from between $1000 and $50,000 can be mailed in to the OLG. The website warns that the vetting process normally takes 4-6 weeks. This will be extended due to Covid. I also have to ask myself that if I had a $5000 winning ticket, would I mail it in? Not likely. All tickets of $50,000 or greater cannot be cashed at present.

The result is that web site shows many games that were launched over the past four months as having all or almost all of their Grand Prizes remaining outstanding. People are cashing small tickets at their local retailers so it appears that the games are proceeding as one would expect from that vantage point.

So, what games to play at this time? I would recommend either games that are brand new or the games with large numbers of grand prizes. In the latter category, it is very difficult for an imbalance to be created given the large number of winning tickets. If you're buying any other games there is a chance that the Grand Prizes have been either all or mostly won. On that basis, here is my recommended list of games:

$3 Bingo 3030 (beware and avoid version 3029)
$3 Crossword 3228 (beware versions 3226 and 3227)
$3 Wild $100  2177
$5 Bingo Doubler 2180 (beware version 2171)
$5 Fast $500 2183
$5 Tripling 2186
$10 5000 Flash 2174


OLG News

Of note is the $500 million line of credit that the Province has extended to the OLG. One would think that a positive side effect of the privatization of the the casinos would be that the off loading of risk would have worked in their favour. However, one of the reasons for the financial support is the "Contractual Payments to Casino Operators!" Huh? Someone needs to look under that stone.

The OLG also lost a court case recently as it relates to First Nations groups. The original agreements called for First Nations groups to receive 1.7% of all OLG revenue. It was the OLG's view that since the casinos had been privatized, the casino companies fell outside that agreement. Not so said a judge.

The OLG is now only reporting financially on an annual basis. They used to report quarterly but now the casino revenue is accruing to private businesses. I'm particularly interested in their revenue from www.playolg.ca . The OLG made lots of predictions about the growth in revenue from that source and that was before the Covid closures of casinos. It's my view that the revenue growth there will not be explosive. I have a friend who logged on, deposited $100 and promptly lost it on the virtual slots. He won't go back. There is something discomforting about losing money on a fake slot machine. I want to know if other people have the same reaction that I do.

Lastly, a feather for the OLG. Poster AJ had some damaged tickets that he mailed into the OLG. The OLG verified the tickets and sent him his winnings in prompt order. For more information, drop AJ a line.


Stay save everyone. The OLG needs your money.


Doug

Wild Cards #2166 is the Recommended Game

In the midst of a pandemic coupled with a stock market crash, thank goodness the world of scratch tickets remains unscathed.

The top game, Wild Cards, is presently enjoying a 47% positive Grand Prize imbalance. Further, 1 of 2 second prizes is outstanding and 2 of 4 third prizes. An estimated 70% of the float remains to be sold which means that the tickets should be readily available.

Players should look out for Super Money and Pac Man. All the Grand Prizes have been claimed for both games. For Super Money, the Grand Prize is $250,000 which, according to OLG rules, must result in the cancellation of the game. Lets see how long it takes them to get around to it seeing as an estimated 30% of the float remains to be sold.

Players face the situation that The Big Spin and Bingo Multiplier both have two versions of the game running at the same time. For the Big Spin, play Game #3103 and for Bingo Multiplier search the less abundant Game # 3070.

In the news this week is the announcement that Stephen Rigby is leaving his CEO position this coming summer. Rigby was the President of the Canada Border Services Agency before coming to the OLG. The articles in the paper list his salary at $800k with a severence package of $1 million. Let's not forget that he is not the first OLG President to reach those compensation highs. His predecessor, Rod Phillips, was the first to pull in big numbers. He achieved his during a period of Liberal government austerity. Senior public servant salaries had been frozen but Rod managed to spit that hook when Paul Godfrey doubled his annual bonus pushing his compensation into the same strata. Sneaky, eh? Oh yea, this is the same Rod Phillips who is now the Minister of Finance for the Government of Ontario.

I suspect that Rigby decided to jump before the unrealistic projections from the OLG Modernization Plan, drafted by Phillips, become seen as the pie in the sky falsehoods that were used to justify the privatization of the casinos in Ontario. Further, the OLG will be reducing staff in the coming year and no public executive wants to be on the bridge for that. Stay tuned to see who the next person with no gaming experience is who is chosen to head the gambling monopoly known as OLG.

$5	2166	Wild Cards	Excellent
$1	2152	Fiesta Treas	Very Good
$3	2080	Scrabble	Very Good
$3	2178	Slots	Very Good
$10	2130	Bigger Spin	Very Good
$10	2175	Monopoly	Very Good
$3	2182	Round Trip Rich	Good
$5	2138	Bingo Doubler	Good
$10	2170	Cross Deluxe	Good
$10	2054	Royale	Good
$10	3070	Bingo Multiplier	Good
$30	2055	Triple Million	Good
$50	2159	Classic Extra	Good
$1	2143	Emoji Money	Neutral
$2	2149	Movie Money	Neutral
$3	2177	Wild 100	Neutral
$3	3227	Cross Word	Neutral
$4	1175	Cash For Life	Neutral
$5	2171	Bingo Doubler	Neutral
$5	2135	Cross Tripler	Neutral
$5	2183	Fast 500	Neutral
$5	2126	Sizzling 5's	Neutral
$5	3103	The Big Spin	Neutral
$10	2155	Cash Blowout	Neutral
$10	3071	Bingo Multiplier	Neutral
$20	2052	Supreme	Neutral
$20	2168	Cash Club	Neutral
$20	2172	Super Set For Life	Neutral
$3	3029	Bingo	Poor
$20	2156	Celebrate 2020	Poor
$3	2142	Pac Man	Terrible
$5	3101	The Big Spin	Terrible
$10	2162	Super Money	Terrible

More Turnover

About half a dozen games have been eliminated since the last update. New games coming on board include a new Bingo Doubler (2171), Emoji Money (2143), Fast 500 (2183), and Cash Blowout (2155).

The size of the float for Scrabble 2080 is dwindling. You may have trouble finding those tickets. Apart from that one, Slots 2178 is the top rated game.

JD posted last week about an individual player who has knocked down several big pots in Point Spread Pools. It does strike me as strange and I am going to look into it. I doubt that there is anything fishy going on although one can never be certain of that. This chap, Jeffrey Cisma, obviously puts a lot of money into the pools. It may be that because he buys a lot of tickets that he can gain an advantage over players who only play one or two tickets per pool. By playing a lot he can take underdogs that players who only play a couple of tickets would stay away from. Regardless, he has to overcome a steep house cut. I'll keep you updated.

An article this past week indicated that the OLG will be reducing the size of its workforce. I never want to see someone lose their job but this move seems inevitable. They sold off the operating of all the casinos and their head office head count did not budge. The number of OLG staff who made the Sunshine List did not budge between 2018 and 2019. At the same time, the OLG's contributions to the Provincial Treasury failed to meet projections. Something needed to be done. Maybe OLG CEO Stephen Rigby could take a salary hair cut given the level of his current compensation.

$3	2080	Scrabble	Excellent
$3	2178	Slots	Excellent
$5	2166	Wild Cards	Very Good
$10	2054	Royale	Very Good
$20	2052	Supreme	Very Good
$5	2138	Bingo Doubler	Good
$10	2130	Bigger Spin	Good
$10	2175	Monopoly	Good
$10	3070	Bingo Multiplier	Good
$20	2156	Celebrate 2020	Good
$30	2055	Triple Million	Good
$50	2159	Classic Extra	Good
$1	2143	Emoji Money	Neutral
$1	2152	Fiesta Treas	Neutral
$2	2149	Movie Money	Neutral
$3	2177	Wild 100	Neutral
$3	3227	Cross Word	Neutral
$3	3029	Bingo	Neutral
$4	1175	Cash For Life	Neutral
$5	2098	Bling	Neutral
$5	2135	Cross Tripler	Neutral
$5	2183	Fast 500	Neutral
$5	2126	Sizzling 5's	Neutral
$10	2155	Cash Blowout	Neutral
$10	2170	Cross Deluxe	Neutral
$10	2129	25x Multiplier	Neutral
$20	2168	Cash Club	Neutral
$20	2172	Super Set For Life	Neutral
$3	2142	Pac Man	Poor
$5	2171	Bingo Doubler	Poor
$5	3101	The Big Spin	Poor
$3	3225	QFG Crossword	Terrible
$10	2162	Super Money	Terrible

Turnover Time

You know that the Christmas Season is behind us when the OLG retires all of it's Christmas games. Gone from play are: Fiesta Treasure, Peppermint, Bling, Bigger Spin, Instant Gift Pack and Festive Feast.

In the world of extremes, we lost More Lucky Lines last update with all three of its Grand Prizes left to be claimed. A nice little gift for the OLG. On the other extreme we have the Quest for Gold ticket which has the worst profile I have ever seen. The Top Prize list shows that all of the games Top prizes ($50k, $25k, $10k, $5k) have been claimed yet the game remains for sale. The OLG gains on the turns as well as the straightaways.

We have three new games this update including a new version of the $5 Bingo Doubler. If you like that game, try to pick up the earlier version 2138 as it is a better proposition at this point.

I picked up a Cross Deluxe ticket yesterday and was pleased that I won $10 with it. Lo and behold, when I checked it on the OLG App, I had won $40. That win offsets about half of the money I lost chasing a Grand Prize on More Lucky Lines. It is also another example that you should check every single ticket you purchase with either the App or the ticket checker in the store. This is not the first time that I have won a prize and did not know it. The OLG enjoys enough advantages in these games without me adding my own advancing senility to the list.

Keep warm.


Doug

$3	2177	Wild 100	New
$5	2171	Bingo Doubler	New
$10	2155	Cash Blowout	New
$3	3027	Bingo	Very Good
$3	2080	Scrabble	Very Good
$3	2178	Slots	Very Good
$10	2170	Cross Deluxe	Very Good
$10	2054	Royale	Very Good
$1	2152	Fiesta Treas	Good
$3	3227	Cross Word	Good
$5	2138	Bingo Doubler	Good
$5	2135	Cross Tripler	Good
$5	2086	Ruby 7's	Good
$5	2166	Wild Cards	Good
$10	3070	Bingo Multiplier	Good
$20	2156	Celebrate 2020	Good
$20	2052	Supreme	Good
$2	2161	Ontario Love	Neutral
$3	3029	Bingo	Neutral
$3	2142	Pac Man	Neutral
$3	2158	Strike Spare	Neutral
$5	2126	Sizzling 5's	Neutral
$20	2168	Cash Club	Neutral
$20	2172	Super Set For Life	Neutral
$30	2055	Triple Million	Neutral
$50	2159	Classic Extra	Neutral
$2	2149	Movie Money	Poor
$4	1175	Cash For Life	Poor
$10	2129	25x Multiplier	Poor
$5	3101	The Big Spin	Very Poor
$10	2162	Super Money	Very Poor
$2	2163	Stock Stuff	Terrible
$3	3225	QFG Crossword	Disaster

More Lucky Lines is Retired

As predicted, More Lucky Lines was retired at the end of December. Over 90% of the ticket float was sold and none of the 3 Grand Prizes were claimed. No doubt the OLG has its rationalization in hand and it is logical but the whole thing does not sit well with me. A poster to the last update suggested that all $3 games with ticket floats of 3 million tickets (small games) have a 3 month lifespan. That's curious. I've never heard that before but the post makes sense. I'm going to follow up with the OLG to confirm. At any rate, the game is gone.

I was able to discover some troves of tickets in the wind up of the game - 55 in total. Players scratching that many tickets should expect a return approaching the overall numbers for the game. Given that the Grand Prize winners win a much lower percentage of the pot than Lotto games, one should expect that a higher percentage of winnings are returned to the winners of smaller prizes. This proved to be the case for me. My total return was 65.45% of my investment versus the published return of 64.95%. One in every 3.24 tickets was a winner versus the published number of 3.27. One can't get much closer that that.

My current assessment of active games follows:

$3	2178	Slots	New
$20	2168	Cash Club	New
$20	2172	Super Set For Life	New
$3	3027	Bingo	Very Good
$5	2135	Cross Tripler	Very Good
$10	3070	Bingo Multiplier	Very Good
$10	2054	Royale	Very Good
$1	2152	Fiesta Treas	Good
$3	2080	Scrabble	Good
$5	2138	Bingo Doubler	Good
$5	2164	Holiday Win	Good
$5	2086	Ruby 7's	Good
$5	2126	Sizzling 5's	Good
$10	2130	Bigger Spin Win	Good
$10	2170	Cross Deluxe	Good
$20	2052	Supreme	Good
$3	3029	Bingo	Neutral
$3	3227	Cross Word	Neutral
$3	2142	Pac Man	Neutral
$3	2167	Peppermint	Neutral
$3	2158	Strike Spare	Neutral
$4	1175	Cash For Life	Neutral
$5	2098	Bling	Neutral
$10	1926	Instant Gift Pack	Neutral
$10	2162	Super Money	Neutral
$20	2156	Celebrate 2020	Neutral
$20	2169	Festive Fest	Neutral
$30	2055	Triple Million	Neutral
$50	2159	Classic Extra	Neutral
$2	2149	Movie Money	Poor
$2	2161	Ontario Love	Poor
$5	3101	The Big Spin	Poor
$5	2166	Wild Cards	Poor
$10	2129	25x Multiplier	Very Poor
$1	2160	Jewel Jackpot	Terrible
$2	2163	Stock Stuff	Terrible
$3	3225	QFG Crossword	Terrible

It does strike me that there appears to be more big ticket games ($10 and up) than what was the case a five years ago when this blog began. I'm going to run a comparison for discussion in the next update.

Happy Scratching

Doug

Ontario 49 Update

I am now 8 weeks into my 10 week Ontario 49 trial. The game's biggest difference when compared to Lottario is that the Grand Prize of $2,000,000 does not increase when it is not won like Lottario does. In the latter game, the odds to win the Grand Prize are 1 in 4 million. The Grand Prize starts at $250,000 and increases the longer it goes unclaimed. Sales increase by about 40% per week as the pot increases. It never got over $750,000 during my trial. In Ontario 49, the chances of winning are 1 in 14 million. With two draws a week and a fixed prize of $2,000,000 one would think that the number of tickets sold would remain constant and that is exactly what happens. What is noticeable is that the Saturday sales are larger than the Wednesday sales by 15%. Wednesday sales are about 80,000 per draw and the Saturday sales are 92,000 on average. Given that the pot is split between all winners, I would recommend only playing the game on Wednesdays. Your chances of splitting the pot are reduced by 15% by doing so.

As expected, with ticket sales of less than 100,000 per draw, it is unlikely for the jackpot to be won for any given draw. In fact, it has not been won over the course of the 16 draws that I have played. This is not surprising. At the rate that tickets are sold I would only expect to see the jackpot won once every year and a half.

Moving down a prize level, the chances of winning the second prize are 1 in 2.3 million. With a prize of $50,000, which is a discount of the true odds by a factor of 47! Further, you have to split that unlikely prize with any other winners. Cheap! In the 16 draws of the sample period that prize has been claimed 4 times. None of those four had to split the prize.

My expected returns for this sample run is $35 from the $100 invested. Any prize of 4 or above has less a small chance to occur in a sample of 100 tickets. Barring a miracle I'm expecting to win 12 Free Plays, 1 x $3 for 2 of 6 plus the bonus, and two $10 prizes for having three correct. My method for turning the Free Plays into $1 prizes is to reduce my 5 line purchase by the number of Free Plays. In that way the Free Play becomes worth $1. I'm doing fairly well so far with 10 Free Plays, 3 - $3 prizes and 3 - $10 Prizes. That $46 return has already surpassed my expectations.


Scratch Tickets

The current recommended games are:

$3 Bingo 3028
$4 CFL 1174
$5 The Big Spin 2109
$10 250 Grand 2111

Games to avoid are:

$3 Poker 2134
$3 Sweet Cash 2076
$10 Cross Delux 2113


Back in two weeks with the final tally's of the trial.


Doug

Lottario Trial - Week 10

A disappointing week yielded 15 hits and three bonus numbers. That produced one lonely Free Play. The good news for players was that the $440,000 Jackpot was unclaimed. This weeks jackpot is estimated to be $730,000. As a result, I am going to extend my trial by one more week or until the Grand Prize is won.

Total cash prizes won last week totalled $623,500. Further, an additional $190,000 was added to the jackpot and some $185,000 went into the coffers of the OLG. The carry over is worth a stab so I will stick around for another week.

Instant Games

Recommended games are: $2 Burger Bucks #2062, $3 Lights Camera #2088, $3 Lucky 8's #2115, $4 Cash For Life #1174, $5 Bingo Doubler #2094, $5 Cross Tripler #2092, $5 Mission Money #2067, $5 Power 5's #2085, and $5 Big Spin #2109.

Games to avoid are: $3 Scrabble #2079, and $10 Cross Deluxe #2065.

OLG Modernization

There were lots of stories this week that featured local mayors slobbering over the OLG and the cheques they received for hosting slots in their community.

Two Points: the local community is contractually obligated to hold a press conference each time it receives a cheque. They then proceed to tell us that their community would not have an arena or a park if it were not for the slots in their town. Whooey to that, I say. The second point is that the community receives approximately a nickel rebate for every dollar that is consumed by the slots.

Imagine if I gave you a dollar. In exchange I give you a nickel and you have to throw a shindig to thank me for the nickel. That's the sham that we are following. Attention local media: either ask some tough questions at these lame events or decide to cover something more meaningful.


Pretty nice outside. Will we be blessed by winter once more? I say yes.


Doug

Lottario Trial - Week 9

This week produced 18 hits which is two more that expected. On the downside, I only had the Bonus number once. Fortunately, the sole bonus landed on a line with none producing a Free Play.

The 18 correct numbers produced seven lines with one correct, four lines with two correct, and one line with 3 correct - worth $4. My total return was $5 heading into the last week of the trial. At this point I am still a few numbers below expected so I'm thinking that I'm due another good week.


Scratch Ticket Update

These are pretty good days on the scratch ticket front. The recommended games are: $2 Burger Bucks #2062, $3 Lights Camera #2088, $4 Cash For Life #1174, $5 Bingo Doubler #2094, $5 Cross Tripler #2092, $5 Mission Money #2087, $5 Power 5's #2085, $5 Big Spin #2109.

Games to avoid: $3 Scrabble #2079, #10 Bigger Spin #2124, #10 Cross Deluxe #2065. A warning to players: the largest prize left to claim in Cross Deluxe is $10,000! They're selling fools gold when it comes to this game

OLG Modernization

Here is an interesting story: http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/a-retired-couple-explain-exactly-how-they-used-math-skills-and-a-lottery-loophole-to-win-dollar26-million-in-9-years/ar-BBV413u?li=AAggFp5&ocid=UE01DHP .

Granted, this story is from the USA and not Canada but it gives you the indication that circumstances can creep up that are a benefit to players. I'll be switching to a new trial foe next week. Think I'll check to see if the OLG offers any similar games.

I was also entertaining this week when the Ontario Government announced new funding of $10 million to the thoroughbred breeding group. This same group is currently suing the Government over the distribution of slots money. I wonder if there is any connection.

People are going crazy in social media claiming that the Government cares more about race horses than it does about autistic children or class size. I'm weak on the details but will do some research and report on it next week.

Happy springtime.

Doug

Lottario Trial - Week 7&8

The last two weeks have been a tale of taking different routes to the same destination. In Week 7 I hit 21 times with three bonus numbers. That is five hits over the expected number of 16. Unfortunately, the best I could muster was 2 correct on any line which I managed to do 6 times! The only good news was that my three bonus numbers landed on 2 of the 5 lines for which I had none correct. Final result - 2 Free Plays.

In Week 8 famine struck when I only hit 10 times which matches the low for the trial. The best result was 2 correct on each of two lines. The good news is that I hit the Bonus number 7 times which yielded 3 Free Plays.

The Jackpot was hit in each week which means that it again is estimated to be $250,000 for this week. I need a little bit of luck to improve my overall results with two weeks left in the experiment.

Scratch Ticket Update

Recommended Games: $3 Lights Cameras #2088, $4 Cash For Life #1174, $5 Mission Money #2087, $5 Power 5's #2085, $5 Big Spin Win #2109.

Games to Avoid: $3 Scrabble #2079, $5 King #2084, $10 Bigger Spin #2124.


OLG News

Thanks to AJ for a couple of interesting comments left on the Lottario Week 5 Trail blog entry. Some first hand knowledge of what is going on in Wasaga Beach.

I was particularly irked this week when the OLG issued a Press Release praising itself for having been awarded the World Lottery Association's prize for the Best Overall Responsible Gaming Program. First of all, there is a word in the English language for self-congratulations and it is not complimentary. Secondly, the WLA is nothing but an association of Casino companies. It's like RJ McDonalds being awarded a prize for the best cigarette company looking into the causes of lung cancer by the association of cigarette companies!

The OLG is not alone in this type of chicanery. Casinos all across the USA and Canada spend lots of effort trying to earn social capital from operating what is a vice. I don't have a problem with casinos existing but let's be honest. Be who you are and quit trying to convince me that there is something noble in what you do.

The Medical Officer of Health for Toronto issued a report in November of 2012 that included recommendations as to what any approved casino in the GTA should include IF it truly cared about responsible gaming. Here are the recommendations:

1. Limiting hours. Close the casino 6 hours per day. 
2. Slow down machine speed. 
3. Eliminate casino loyalty programs. 
4. No ATMs on the floor. 
5. No credit or holding accounts. 
6. Reduce maximum bet size. 
7. Mandating a daily loss maximum. 
8. Implement a strong self-exclusion program. 
9. Issue monthly patron statements showing losses and details of playing history. 
10. No alcohol on the casino floor. 

Now, how many of these ideas (each of which would be effective) has the OLG and its gang of casino operators put in place? Correct! And yet they are judged to be the best in class? To quote a famous Twitter contributor, "SAD!"

Spring is coming folks.


Doug

Lottario Trial - Week 6

My bad Week 5 was followed up with a lucky Week 6. For only the second time in six weeks, I achieved the expected result of 16 numbers. The running total now is 13, 20, 13, 15, 10, 16. I had the all-important Bonus number 3 times.

With that I managed to have one line with 3 correct and a second with 3 correct plus the bonus. My total cash was $9. Yes readers, I am aware that that is still a $1 loss. Still, if I can churn at a rate of only $1 per week while trying to hit a jackpot, I can last a long time.

Also on the good news front, the Jackpot was not won again. The OLG is estimating a jackpot this week of $600,000. The OLG does a poor job of estimating the jackpot. Last week their estimate was $350,000 and it turned out to be $407,000. Working backwards, that indicates total ticket sales of 880,000. They should be able to come closer that $50,000 on that volume. Maybe they just want to be certain to never over estimate the jackpot. I can see why that might be the case.

We are now getting to a good point to play. With a chance to win of one in 4 million per line, every $1 has a one in two million chance to win. Because I buy $10 worth of tickets my chances are a robust one in 200,000. I won't be holding my breath yet but another couple of weeks of jackpot roll-over and I may have to expand my level of play.


Instant Games

A new game called Power 5's #2085 has hit the shelves. No Grand Prizes have yet to be claimed and sales are brisk. Other recommended games are: Cash For Life #1174, 5 Bingo Doubler #2094, Cross Tripler #2092, and Mission Money #208. Sadly, no $3 games are recommended at this time.

Games to avoid are: Scrabble #2079, Big Spin #2104, and Bigger Spin #2124.


OLG News

Long time contributor, Lloyd, dropped me a line saying that the construction site in Pickering looks to be a little behind schedule. When completed it will include a casino, a hotel, and restaurants.

This is the casino that the Great Canadian Gaming Company agreed to operate alongside the Slots at Ajax Downs. They are less than ten minutes from each other. Ontario's Environment Minister, Rod Phillips, former CEO at the OLG, wrote the rules stating that only one casino could operate in the area but when a frakas erupted that put the Liberals in a tough spot the same Mr Phillips rode in on his white horse to save the day. No doubt there was a financial settlement agreed to. I would love to know what it was. I'd submit a Freedom of Information request but the answer would be that the Great Canadian Gaming Company is a private corporation and outside the rules of FOI. Still, it may be worth a shot.

Best

Doug

Cash Card Is Retired - Keno #1418 Rates As The Top Pick

With the retirement of Cash Card, Keno #1418 takes over the top spot thanks to a positive prize ratio of 1.42 and a small prize revenue return of 62%. Three of its Grand Prizes remain to be claimed with an estimated 37% of its float remaining to be sold (1.8 million tickets).

For those players who prefer higher priced games, the next six rated games provide a good array to choose from. A poster last week lamented the loss of a prize of Lucky Aces. Well, even with the loss the game still rates well. I expect that from this bunching of games one will emerge as the game of choice. Only time and randomness will tell.

Rank	Cost	Game	#	Score
1	$3.00	Keno	1418	552.3
2	$5.00	Black Pearls	1880	524.2
3	$5.00	Wild Card	1893	511.7
4	$5.00	Triple Crown	1882	485.7
5	$5.00	Cross Tripler	1879	483.3
6	$10.00	Lucky Aces	1856	482.5
7	$20.00	Extreme	1780	482.7
8	$3.00	Bingo	3020	481.9
9	$2.00	Double Dollar	1837	478.7
10	$3.00	Cross Word	3215	478.3
11	$3.00	More Lucky Lines	1836	472.8
12	$30.00	250M Golden	1782	473.1
13	$5.00	Bingo Doubler	1873	463.2
14	$10.00	Platinum	1888	463.6
15	$3.00	Cross Word	3211	455.4
16	$10.00	Diamond	1781	451.0
17	$2.00	Lucky Dog	1859	447.8
18	$2.00	Sushi Bar	1870	443.6
19	$5.00	Cross Tripler	1872	439.5
20	$1.00	Bacon Bits	1860	438.4
21	$5.00	500 Frenzy	1892	435.8
22	$3.00	Sweet Cash	1886	422.3
23	$5.00	Ruby 7's	1885	420.5
24	$1.00	Donut Dollars	1869	416.6
25	$3.00	Scrabble	1883	370.9
26	$4.00	Cash For Life	1171	366.1

Comings and Goings

We mourn the loss of Cash Card although I was never able to actually find any to buy! Still, with only one Grand Prize left and an estimated 13% of its float left, one can't argue with the OLG on this one. 

There were no new games added thereby reducing the total number of games in play to 26 and the the total estimated number of tickets for sale to 85 million. These numbers are both on the low side and I would expect a number of new games to be added shortly to greet the new school year. 

Personal Play

Five Platinum tickets included two winners - each for $10. 

Post Script

For readers who have come looking for CL66's ratings, you can find them on his newly minted blog at http://olgscratchticketguide.blogspot.ca . CL66 has been an important contributor to this blog and I thank him for his contributions. 

I also recommend a very useful new site that is currently under development at http://scratchstats.ca . The site provides the visitor with the actual updated odds on current games based upon the preference of the visitor. Visitors are not subjected to the bias of either my evaluation method or CL66's. 

Lastly, don't forget the downloadable App that gives you what you can find on the outstanding prize list on your mobile device. Ensuring that Grand Prizes remain to be claimed for the game you are about to buy is almost as important as checking your losing tickets before tossing them away. 

I close with a link to a blog that points out that two former OLG Executives have set up consulting companies for the purpose of advising potential bidders for the Modernization of Ontario's gaming sites http://gamingontario.com/?p=113 . I am of two minds on the matter. I'm confident that these two individuals are complying with any post employment guidelines of the Ontario Government. It just puzzles me what advice they are actually providing. How to run a casino? I doubt that very much. How to negotiate the OLG's bidding process? No doubt. Does it sit well with you? Let me know. 

Doug

Cash Card #1876 Tops The List

Cash Card sits on top of the ratings on the strength of a 2.01 ratio of top prizes to top prize money. The problem is that only an estimated 13% of its float remain to be sold. There is only one Grand Prize of $75,000 remains and your chance to find it is 1 in 385,000.

One in every 3.52 tickets is a winner and one in 7.47 is a winner of more than $3. The game also features a high 6.8% of total revenue returned to players winning $100 or more. That is very high.

Rank	Cost	Game	#	Score
1	$3.00	Cash Card	1876	711.3
2	$10.00	Platinum	1888	621.1
3	$3.00	Keno	1418	601.9
4	$5.00	Wild Card	1893	590.7
5	$10.00	Lucky Aces	1856	580.8
6	$5.00	Black Pearls	1880	571.2
7	$5.00	Cross Tripler	1879	565.2
8	$3.00	Sweet Cash	1886	563.7
9	$30.00	250M Golden	1782	563.5
10	$5.00	Cross Tripler	1872	560.0
11	$3.00	More Lucky Lines	1836	553.8
12	$3.00	Crossword	1866	547.5
13	$20.00	Extreme	1780	547.7
14	$5.00	Triple Crown	1882	540.0
15	$1.00	Bacon Bits	1860	538.1
16	$3.00	Bingo	3020	536.3
17	$2.00	Sushi Bar	1870	530.8
18	$2.00	Double Dollar	1837	530.6
19	$5.00	Bingo Doubler	1873	524.8
20	$10.00	Diamond	1781	512.4
21	$5.00	Ruby 7's	1885	507.3
22	$3.00	Cross Word	3211	506.0
23	$2.00	Lucky Dog	1859	501.1
24	$1.00	Donut Dollars	1869	493.3
25	$5.00	500 Frenzy	1892	492.3
26	$4.00	Cash For Life	1171	480.1
27	$3.00	Scrabble	1883	441.5

Comings and Goings

High Roller and Quest For Gold Crossword were retired since the last update. QFG was a dog almost throughout its entire run and will not be missed. High Roller was a good choice and was retired with 2 of its 8 Grand Prizes left and 18% of its float. I would have liked to have seen the game left alone a bit longer given that there are only 85 million total tickets for sale in the province. 

New to the family is a new $500 Frenzy. This is a game that my formula does not rate highly but it is a perfectly good choice for people who want plentiful prizes and no large prizes. A poster has already claimed one of the 6,452 Grand Prizes. 

Personal Play 

Six Platinum tickets contained two winners of $70. A winning week? The gods must be smiling upon me. 

Post Script

First off we have a story about a lottery group participant who tried to cheat his Tim Horton's buddies: http://on.thestar.com/2bBle3v . I'd have a hard time forgiving him. 

And a story from the Ottawa Citizen about what is going on at the Rideau Carlton Raceway: http://bit.ly/2b4OSPl . If anyone can decipher the gobbly-gook that the OLG says, please let me know. All I know is that they're not happy with the hand that the local politicians have dealt them. 

Best of luck to all. 

Doug