Turnover Time

You know that the Christmas Season is behind us when the OLG retires all of it's Christmas games. Gone from play are: Fiesta Treasure, Peppermint, Bling, Bigger Spin, Instant Gift Pack and Festive Feast.

In the world of extremes, we lost More Lucky Lines last update with all three of its Grand Prizes left to be claimed. A nice little gift for the OLG. On the other extreme we have the Quest for Gold ticket which has the worst profile I have ever seen. The Top Prize list shows that all of the games Top prizes ($50k, $25k, $10k, $5k) have been claimed yet the game remains for sale. The OLG gains on the turns as well as the straightaways.

We have three new games this update including a new version of the $5 Bingo Doubler. If you like that game, try to pick up the earlier version 2138 as it is a better proposition at this point.

I picked up a Cross Deluxe ticket yesterday and was pleased that I won $10 with it. Lo and behold, when I checked it on the OLG App, I had won $40. That win offsets about half of the money I lost chasing a Grand Prize on More Lucky Lines. It is also another example that you should check every single ticket you purchase with either the App or the ticket checker in the store. This is not the first time that I have won a prize and did not know it. The OLG enjoys enough advantages in these games without me adding my own advancing senility to the list.

Keep warm.


Doug

$3	2177	Wild 100	New
$5	2171	Bingo Doubler	New
$10	2155	Cash Blowout	New
$3	3027	Bingo	Very Good
$3	2080	Scrabble	Very Good
$3	2178	Slots	Very Good
$10	2170	Cross Deluxe	Very Good
$10	2054	Royale	Very Good
$1	2152	Fiesta Treas	Good
$3	3227	Cross Word	Good
$5	2138	Bingo Doubler	Good
$5	2135	Cross Tripler	Good
$5	2086	Ruby 7's	Good
$5	2166	Wild Cards	Good
$10	3070	Bingo Multiplier	Good
$20	2156	Celebrate 2020	Good
$20	2052	Supreme	Good
$2	2161	Ontario Love	Neutral
$3	3029	Bingo	Neutral
$3	2142	Pac Man	Neutral
$3	2158	Strike Spare	Neutral
$5	2126	Sizzling 5's	Neutral
$20	2168	Cash Club	Neutral
$20	2172	Super Set For Life	Neutral
$30	2055	Triple Million	Neutral
$50	2159	Classic Extra	Neutral
$2	2149	Movie Money	Poor
$4	1175	Cash For Life	Poor
$10	2129	25x Multiplier	Poor
$5	3101	The Big Spin	Very Poor
$10	2162	Super Money	Very Poor
$2	2163	Stock Stuff	Terrible
$3	3225	QFG Crossword	Disaster

Lottario Trial Summary

The eleventh and final week was a miss. I hit the key numbers 18 times and the Bonus number twice. The 18 main numbers produced five lines with two numbers, eight with one, and seven with no numbers. The bonus number hit one of the zeros yielding one free ticket which turned into nothing the following week.

The carry over jackpot was hit three times yielding a payoff of $241,067 which is less than one would win by hitting the jackpot without a carry-over by oneself. I wonder if being that lucky still results in cursing your luck to have to split the prize three ways?

My estimation is that the total sales for the carry-over was roughly 40% higher than when there is no carry-over. Given that Lottario is a minor game for OLG, there must be quite a few people who must be playing games only with carry-overs. That's a smart strategy.

The last annual report from the OLG explained, in part, its failure to meet its revenue targets by the fact that there were a low number of carry-over Lotto Max jackpots. When that pot grows so do the numbers of sales - exponentially. There must be lots of groups who sit on the sidelines waiting for carry-over jackpots and they make their plays only on those draws.

Trial Results

I played 222 lines in total. From that total I won $5 once, $4 - 5 times, and a free play 13 times. Twelve of those were used to reduce my cost for the next week. Therefore, my total return was $37 from $111 played or 33%.

Based upon actual odds, the expected return was 13.6 Free Plays, 4.5 lines with 3 correct ($4), and .4 lines with 3 correct plus the bonus ($5) and a .3 percent chance of winning $10 for having four correct. Nothing else had any significant chance. The total projected return was therefore $37. I came out exactly where I expected to be.

These games produce an overall lower return than scratch tickets due to the nature of the game. Any lotto game includes an oversized jackpot. If you don't win it, it is very hard to meet the expected return.

My next trial is going to be Ontario 49. I'm curious to see how it compares to Lottario.

Scratch Tickets

Recommended Games: $3 Bingo 3028, $4 Cash For Life 1174, $5 Cross Tripler 2092, $5 The Big Spin 2109.

Games to Avoid: $3 Crossword 3223, $20 Monopoly 2112.

The $20 Monopoly game is run on an interprovincial basis. 25% of the tickets remain outstanding and there are zero grand prizes left to claim. Be smart!


OLG Modernization

I am not a big fan of the Sunshine List. When it came into being only a small number of people were earning over $100,000. Nowadays teachers and police officers flood the list. The qualifying number should be increased.

Regardless, the OLG has 416 people on the list. It had 418 last year and 411 the year before. Of those people, 23 earned in excess of $200,000. I'd love to know what all these folks do. The OLG has divested itself of all its casinos and slot palaces. It has handed all of the monies going to horse racing to the Woodbine Entertainment Group, and it is trying to offload its lotto sales to a third party. What exactly will there be left for anyone to do? We know that the folks who were never going to meet Sunshine threshold were packaged off to the new casino owners who had to promise to pay its new employees the same way they had been paid. That allowed the OLG to distance itself from the bloodletting that is coming. But it appears that the high end folks are heretofore safely ensconced.

Congrats go to Stephen Rigby who finally earned more than Rod Phillips managed to pull down as the CEO at OLG. Rigby earned $765,000 which would be 2-3 times what he was paid as the President of the Canada Border Services Agency. Rod Phillips, whose career path took him from Chief of Staff for the Mayor of Toronto, to the OLG where his mentor (Paul Godfrey) circumvented the Government's edict to freeze senior provincial officials salary by awarding him an annual bonus that effectively doubled his income. Phillips then followed Godfrey to the National Post where the pair of them oversaw very painful staff reductions. Bonuses well earned no doubt. Rod is now Ontario's Minister of the Environment. His time is now spent sniping at his federal counterpart while fleshing out his plan for how Ontario is going to meet its targets for CO2 emissions. He likely earns less than half of what he earned at the helm of the OLG for doing a job that will impact all Ontarians for the next millennium. Nice to be an insider.



Doug

Keno #1418 Remains The Top Pick

This is the 200th update of this blog which I started four years ago. It will also be the last update with a Scratch and Win focus. Over the lifetime of the blog I have learned a lot both by looking under the hood at the OLG and from the many posters who have contributed to this community project. I thank all of them for their interest. In total, there has been over 450,000 visits to the blog and I'm pleased with how often it shows up on Google when searching about the OLG.

The truth is that updating the blog has become more of a chore than a pleasure. That's natural and when that happens, well, I think we would all agree that it is time to move on. I refer all visitors to the previous update for a list of other resources available for players who want to use a modicum of strategy in deciding what games to play.

I will, however, continue to post in this space on the broad subject of the OLG and its fortunes. My focus will be on their Modernization Plan, which is sputtering, to be kind.

After four years of updating the blog, this is what I have learned:

1. Never buy scratch tickets for games that are devoid of Grand Prizes. Tools are available to ensure that is the case.
2. Always check your tickets, winners and losers, at the checking machines before throwing them out or cashing them. 
3. Don't rely on lottery information provided by your local seller unless you know that he/she is knowledgeable. 
4. Don't hesitate to call the OLG with any concerns or questions you may have. Their call center staff is first class. 
5. Play the games you like with the proviso of #1. 

Although I retain a smidgen of doubt that "random distribution" can have more than one meaning, I can point to no evidence that the printing and distribution of tickets is anything other than random in the broadest sense of the word. One poster summed up the subject well when he asked what possible reason the OLG would have to tinker with a business model that is already so heavily stacked in its favour. Makes sense.


Y'all be good now.


Doug

Cash Card Is Retired - Keno #1418 Rates As The Top Pick

With the retirement of Cash Card, Keno #1418 takes over the top spot thanks to a positive prize ratio of 1.42 and a small prize revenue return of 62%. Three of its Grand Prizes remain to be claimed with an estimated 37% of its float remaining to be sold (1.8 million tickets).

For those players who prefer higher priced games, the next six rated games provide a good array to choose from. A poster last week lamented the loss of a prize of Lucky Aces. Well, even with the loss the game still rates well. I expect that from this bunching of games one will emerge as the game of choice. Only time and randomness will tell.

Rank	Cost	Game	#	Score
1	$3.00	Keno	1418	552.3
2	$5.00	Black Pearls	1880	524.2
3	$5.00	Wild Card	1893	511.7
4	$5.00	Triple Crown	1882	485.7
5	$5.00	Cross Tripler	1879	483.3
6	$10.00	Lucky Aces	1856	482.5
7	$20.00	Extreme	1780	482.7
8	$3.00	Bingo	3020	481.9
9	$2.00	Double Dollar	1837	478.7
10	$3.00	Cross Word	3215	478.3
11	$3.00	More Lucky Lines	1836	472.8
12	$30.00	250M Golden	1782	473.1
13	$5.00	Bingo Doubler	1873	463.2
14	$10.00	Platinum	1888	463.6
15	$3.00	Cross Word	3211	455.4
16	$10.00	Diamond	1781	451.0
17	$2.00	Lucky Dog	1859	447.8
18	$2.00	Sushi Bar	1870	443.6
19	$5.00	Cross Tripler	1872	439.5
20	$1.00	Bacon Bits	1860	438.4
21	$5.00	500 Frenzy	1892	435.8
22	$3.00	Sweet Cash	1886	422.3
23	$5.00	Ruby 7's	1885	420.5
24	$1.00	Donut Dollars	1869	416.6
25	$3.00	Scrabble	1883	370.9
26	$4.00	Cash For Life	1171	366.1

Comings and Goings

We mourn the loss of Cash Card although I was never able to actually find any to buy! Still, with only one Grand Prize left and an estimated 13% of its float left, one can't argue with the OLG on this one. 

There were no new games added thereby reducing the total number of games in play to 26 and the the total estimated number of tickets for sale to 85 million. These numbers are both on the low side and I would expect a number of new games to be added shortly to greet the new school year. 

Personal Play

Five Platinum tickets included two winners - each for $10. 

Post Script

For readers who have come looking for CL66's ratings, you can find them on his newly minted blog at http://olgscratchticketguide.blogspot.ca . CL66 has been an important contributor to this blog and I thank him for his contributions. 

I also recommend a very useful new site that is currently under development at http://scratchstats.ca . The site provides the visitor with the actual updated odds on current games based upon the preference of the visitor. Visitors are not subjected to the bias of either my evaluation method or CL66's. 

Lastly, don't forget the downloadable App that gives you what you can find on the outstanding prize list on your mobile device. Ensuring that Grand Prizes remain to be claimed for the game you are about to buy is almost as important as checking your losing tickets before tossing them away. 

I close with a link to a blog that points out that two former OLG Executives have set up consulting companies for the purpose of advising potential bidders for the Modernization of Ontario's gaming sites http://gamingontario.com/?p=113 . I am of two minds on the matter. I'm confident that these two individuals are complying with any post employment guidelines of the Ontario Government. It just puzzles me what advice they are actually providing. How to run a casino? I doubt that very much. How to negotiate the OLG's bidding process? No doubt. Does it sit well with you? Let me know. 

Doug

Cash Card #1876 Tops The List

Cash Card sits on top of the ratings on the strength of a 2.01 ratio of top prizes to top prize money. The problem is that only an estimated 13% of its float remain to be sold. There is only one Grand Prize of $75,000 remains and your chance to find it is 1 in 385,000.

One in every 3.52 tickets is a winner and one in 7.47 is a winner of more than $3. The game also features a high 6.8% of total revenue returned to players winning $100 or more. That is very high.

Rank	Cost	Game	#	Score
1	$3.00	Cash Card	1876	711.3
2	$10.00	Platinum	1888	621.1
3	$3.00	Keno	1418	601.9
4	$5.00	Wild Card	1893	590.7
5	$10.00	Lucky Aces	1856	580.8
6	$5.00	Black Pearls	1880	571.2
7	$5.00	Cross Tripler	1879	565.2
8	$3.00	Sweet Cash	1886	563.7
9	$30.00	250M Golden	1782	563.5
10	$5.00	Cross Tripler	1872	560.0
11	$3.00	More Lucky Lines	1836	553.8
12	$3.00	Crossword	1866	547.5
13	$20.00	Extreme	1780	547.7
14	$5.00	Triple Crown	1882	540.0
15	$1.00	Bacon Bits	1860	538.1
16	$3.00	Bingo	3020	536.3
17	$2.00	Sushi Bar	1870	530.8
18	$2.00	Double Dollar	1837	530.6
19	$5.00	Bingo Doubler	1873	524.8
20	$10.00	Diamond	1781	512.4
21	$5.00	Ruby 7's	1885	507.3
22	$3.00	Cross Word	3211	506.0
23	$2.00	Lucky Dog	1859	501.1
24	$1.00	Donut Dollars	1869	493.3
25	$5.00	500 Frenzy	1892	492.3
26	$4.00	Cash For Life	1171	480.1
27	$3.00	Scrabble	1883	441.5

Comings and Goings

High Roller and Quest For Gold Crossword were retired since the last update. QFG was a dog almost throughout its entire run and will not be missed. High Roller was a good choice and was retired with 2 of its 8 Grand Prizes left and 18% of its float. I would have liked to have seen the game left alone a bit longer given that there are only 85 million total tickets for sale in the province. 

New to the family is a new $500 Frenzy. This is a game that my formula does not rate highly but it is a perfectly good choice for people who want plentiful prizes and no large prizes. A poster has already claimed one of the 6,452 Grand Prizes. 

Personal Play 

Six Platinum tickets contained two winners of $70. A winning week? The gods must be smiling upon me. 

Post Script

First off we have a story about a lottery group participant who tried to cheat his Tim Horton's buddies: http://on.thestar.com/2bBle3v . I'd have a hard time forgiving him. 

And a story from the Ottawa Citizen about what is going on at the Rideau Carlton Raceway: http://bit.ly/2b4OSPl . If anyone can decipher the gobbly-gook that the OLG says, please let me know. All I know is that they're not happy with the hand that the local politicians have dealt them. 

Best of luck to all. 

Doug

Cash Card #1876 Jumps To The Top

There has been a real shakeup at the top of the standings. There were five different games that lost 2 Grand Prizes since the last update effectively knocking those games down the list. Those games were: Sweet Cash, Cash For Life, Bingo Doubler, Cross Tripler, and Diamond.

The new top rated game only has 16% of its float left to sell which means that they will become tough to find beginning very soon. The game has one - $75,000 Grand Prize left to be claimed. There are roughly 490,000 tickets left to be sold. There is also one $25,000 second prize and one $10,000 third prize left to be claimed. $0.051 of every dollar spent on the game will go to the Grand Prize winner which is very high for a $3 game.

After a long period of $3 games being highly rated it looks like it will be a while before another one reaches the top five. Also of note is the second rated game, Ruby 7's. This game is the fastest selling game currently for sale.

Rank	Cost	Game	#	Score
1	$3.00	Cash Card	1876	604.4
2	$5.00	Ruby 7's	1885	587.1
3	$10.00	Platinum	1888	573.8
4	$3.00	Keno	1418	563.4
5	$3.00	More Lucky Lines	1836	553.1
6	$10.00	Lucky Aces	1856	549.7
7	$5.00	Cross Tripler	1872	529.1
8	$5.00	High Roller	1874	523.4
9	$30.00	250M Golden	1782	507.2
10	$5.00	Cross Tripler	1879	499.9
11	$3.00	Crossword	1866	498.3
12	$5.00	Wild Card	1893	497.7
13	$20.00	Extreme	1780	496.8
14	$5.00	Bingo Doubler	1873	484.0
15	$5.00	Black Pearls	1880	476.3
16	$5.00	Triple Crown	1882	475.0
17	$3.00	Scrabble	1883	474.3
18	$1.00	Donut Dollars	1869	472.6
19	$2.00	Sushi Bar	1870	472.2
20	$3.00	Bingo	3020	464.8
21	$1.00	Bacon Bits	1860	463.0
22	$4.00	Cash For Life	1171	459.8
23	$2.00	Double Dollar	1837	459.1
24	$10.00	Diamond	1781	458.0
25	$2.00	Lucky Dog	1859	455.1
26	$3.00	Sweet Cash	1886	455.2
27	$3.00	QFG Crossword	3213	385.7

Comings and Goings

Four games have been retired since the last update and none of them will be missed. Those games are: Bingo Doubler, Pac Man Slots, Walking Dead and Hit 100. 

New to the scene are: $1 Donut Dollars, $5 Cross Tripler and $5 Wild Card. Of note is that Donut Dollars begins life as the best $1 or $2 game for sale. That's good news for players who like inexpensive games. 

Personal Play

Three Cash for Life tickets returned nothing, 3 Keno tickets contained 2 winners, each for $5, and three Sweet Cash tickets contained one winner of $3. 

Post Script

Randy was certainly correct in his forecast of the demise of Cash For Life after it surrendered two Grand Prizes: it fell out of the top five all the way down to 22nd. 

Here is an article from Rabble.ca on the subject of the OLG and, more specifically, the Ontario Government : http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/michael-laxer/2016/06/ontario-governments-grotesque-lottery-addiction . It's interesting but one has to remember that a site like Rabble makes no apology for its politics. It's a good counterbalance to the Fraser Institute. 

Good luck to all. 

Doug