Wednesday 24 June 2015

Fruit Explosion #1834 - Mighty but Ageing

The game of choice was slotted for de-activation last Thursday. With only 10% of the float remaining ticket sales have dried up (40,000 over the past nine days). Our hope now is that the last Grand Prize winner is laying loose in a sellers tray somewhere. Your chances to find it are 308,000:1. All of my sources are empty although a poster indicated that he found three in a location the other day. The result of his anticipation? Nada!

If you want to look down the list, all four of the top five listed games are comparable choices. Of the expensive games, Cash Blast is top rated and currently stands 8th of all games.

FRUIT EXPLOSION


Top Rated Games


  1. $3 Fruit Explosion #1834 - 10% of top prizes left and 21% of top prize money.
  2. $3 Super Bingo #3018 - Excellent small prize availability.
  3. $3 Bingo #3016 - Solid on both rated factors. 
  4. $5 Cross Tripler #1830 - New Game with lots of potential. 
  5. $3 Keno #1416 - There's two Keno games. Worry not - they're both good. 


Games to Avoid


  1. $4 Double Cash For Life #1170 - Last Grand Prize gone; a complete dog. 
  2. $2 Fast 200's #1817 - I can't buy an iPod for $200!
  3. $5 Money Multiplier #1828 - Devoid of Grand Prizes
  4. $10 Bejeweled #1786 - Devoid of Grand Prizes
  5. $1 10,000 Spin #1802 - Poor top prize ratio. 


Games to Buy if All You Want Is the Grand Prize


  1. Cash Blast
  2. Fruit Explosion
  3. Win Take All
  4. Extraordinary
  5. Fortune


Games Devoid of Grand Prizes


  • Bejeweled
  • Money Multiplier
  • Double Cash For Life
  • QFG Crossword



Comings and Goings

Looks like the OLG is cleaning up before their employees begin the summer vacation period. Three games were retired this past week: Hit Jackpot, Wheel of Fortune, and Black Jack. Black Jack was a dog right from the outset yet the OLG persisted in selling it. It left the scene with 17% of its tickets left to sell after being on sale since the beginning of January. This type of case proves that the OLG is right and I'm wrong about the habits of the ticket buying public. The game was devoid of Grand Prizes since mid-February yet it managed through a normal life cycle with folks merrily buying tickets as if those $35,000 Grand Prizes were still there.

Of the other two games, Hit Jackpot had 1 Grand Prize left and 30% of its float while Wheel of Fortune was devoid of Grand Prizes and 10% of its float. Hmmm.

Meanwhile, Crystal 7's and Cash For Life were introduced. The game sheet for Cash For Life has yet to be posted and you can find CL66's review of Crystal 7's in the comments to last week's post. I rank the game in 10th place to begin its life. Not bad.

Personal Play

Ten more Fruit Explosion tickets yielded two $9 winners. My search continues as I'll be scouring gas stations between Ottawa and Toronto to see what I can find.


In Conclusion


What's with Arnprior? No sooner did we learn that a couple in that town won the last Double Cash For Life lottery prize than we are told that another couple won $100,000 on 649. I was also interested to learn that the DCFL winners received $1,350,000 and not the $1,850,000 that I was told would be paid out. http://www.insideottawavalley.com/news-story/5691945-arnprior-residents-one-step-closer-to-collecting-lottery-prize/ . You will recall that the game's expanded prize tally was at odds with the advertised return. It was 5% short. I called the OLG and was provided with an incorrect answer. A second call sent the agent to the supervisor's office. The answer provided was that the Grand Prizes were $1.850,000 and not the usual $1,350,000. The math worked so I accepted the answer as being correct but now we know it aint so...... Somebody got some splaining to do.

Hats off to the OLG for deactivating the Double Cash For Life game almost immediately after that last grand prize was claimed despite the 2.5 million tickets that remain outstanding. I'm impressed.


Doug








Monday 15 June 2015

Fruit Explosion #1834 Strengthens Its Grip

As Fruit Explosion  enters the twilight of its run, its one remaining Grand Prize remains up for grabs with 11% of the float (+/- 2%) left to sell. Your chances to win it are 1 in 350,000. The game has been de-activated and all my sources of tickets from last week have dried up. The game's small prize rate is a bit lower than most $3 games but it compensates by offering the best top prizes (>$100 and less than the Grand Prize) of any $3 game. At present, 7.1 cents of every dollar spent on the game are directed to the Grand Prize winner. That is the 3rd highest value of any game currently for sale and that is unusual for a $3 game.

FRUIT EXPLOSION


Top Rated Games


  1. $3 Fruit Explosion #1834 - clear choice.
  2. $3 Super Bingo #3018 - terrific small prize availability
  3. $3 Bingo #3016 - well rated in all categories
  4. $5 Cross Tripler #1830 - new version of the game: avoid version 1810.
  5. $3 Crossword #3209 - relatively new game; not a bad choice. 


Games to Avoid


  1. $2 Black Jack #1804 - putrid choice. Delete this game OLG!
  2. $2 Fast 200's #1817 - I don't understand the appeal of this game.
  3. $5 Money Multiplier #1828 - deactivated as no Grand Prizes remain. Good work OLG.
  4. $4 Double Cash For Life #1170 - one huge prize....and nothing else. 
  5. $10 Bejeweled #1786 - 30% of float remains and zero Grand Prizes. 


Games to Play if You Only Want the Grand Prize


  1. $4 Double Cash For Life
  2. $10 Cash Blast
  3. $3 Fruit Explosion
  4. $20 Extraordinary
  5. $10 Fortune


Games Devoid of Grand Prizes


  • $10 Bejeweled
  • $5 Money Multiplier
  • $3 Wheel of Fortune
  • $3 Quest For Gold Crossword
  • $2 Black Jack


Coming and Going

$1 Cross Express and $3 Cashingo were each retired this past week. Cashingo was devoid of Grand Prizes and Cross Express had one Grand Prize left and 13% of its float. Neither game will be missed.

New to the family is $10 Cash Blast. There were already five $10 games for sale and one $20 game. Adding another to what was already a crowded field seems strange although Bejeweled is now devoid of Grand Prizes and will be retired soon. The good news is that the other $10 games have been a wasteland for some time. Cadillac Riches has been gaining ground recently joining Classic White and now Cash Blast as new options. Lets hope that one of them becomes a recommended play.

Personal Play

Ten Fruit Explosions contained five winners totaling $21. Really? I hit on half the tickets and still only cashed for 70% of my investment? Grrr.

In Conclusion

I tweaked my evaluation formula this past week, One of the factors I use evaluates how many Top Prizes are left to be claimed versus the prize money for those prizes as compared to how it stood at the outset of the game. I did not like the fact that if a game began with a very low total, such as QFG Crossword where only 2.4% of total revenue is returned to winners of $100 or more as compared to Fruit Explosion whose total is 6.1%, the game was not devalued a bit for that fact.

I have added a factor for that. Whether it is enough remains to be seen. For your information, the highest such total is Double Cash For Life at 19.4% and the lowest is Bingo Express at 1.3%.

TMF left a comment last week about feeding slot machines instead of buying scratch tickets for a while. To begin with, I have a big problem with slot machines. I measured myself one day at a casino and was surprised to learn that I can push a button on one of those machines 800 times in an hour. If you play a quarter slot with the three coin maximum for an hour you will churn 800 X .75 = $600. If the machine returns 85% you can expect to lose 15% of $600 or $90.

On the other hand, a dealer can deal about 60 hands of Blackjack per hour. If you play well, you can expect a return rate of 95%. It follows that if you sit down at a $25 table, your churn will be 60 X $25 = $1500. Your expected loss will be 5% of that total or $75.

It is shocking to realize that the casino makes more money from a person sitting at a $.25 slot machine than it does from someone playing blackjack at $25 per hand. Granted, you need a bigger bank roll to sit down at the Blackjack table but the math points out the insidiousness of those machines. That does not mean that I never play them, just that I know what they're about at all times. Good luck Tommy. It's always possible to beat the odds.

Happy hunting.


Doug










Thursday 4 June 2015

Fruit Explosion #1834 Becomes the Best of a Bad Lot

With the retirement of Diamond 7's - yes, the OLG just pocketed two $77,777 prizes from the estimated 437,000 tickets left to sell - the new top rated game becomes Fruit Explosion. The game is by no means a star but 23% of the top prize money remains to be claimed and only 14% of the top prize tickets remain to be sold. The game offers one Grand Prize of $75,000 but all three of the $25,000 second prizes have been claimed. Two of the three $10,000 third prizes remain thankfully.

An estimated 447,000 tickets remain to be sold (+/- 2%) meaning that if you buy ten tickets then your chances to win are the same as having the lucky seat number at a sold out Blue Jays game. Daunting, but I do kinda like the game itself so bombs away!

FRUIT EXPLOSION


Top Rated Games


  1. $3 Fruit Explosion #1834 - Only 14% of float remains. 
  2. $3 Bingo #3016 - Good ratings on both factors and lots of tickets left. 
  3. $3 Super Bingo #3018 - New game, tremendous low prize availability.
  4. $3 15X The Money #1840 - 2nd best Top Prize ratio number plus good churn. 
  5. $5 Cross Tripler #1810 - New version of the game is out. Get the right one.


Games To Avoid


  1. $4 DCFL #1170 - One massive Grand Prize left. Otherwise, stinko. 
  2. $2 Fast 200's #1817 - Nothing more than $200, right from the get go. 
  3. $2 Black Jack #1804 - Started at same time as Diamond 7's. Why is it still for sale?
  4. $10 Bejeweled #1786 - Devoid of Grand Prizes as of two days ago. Tic toc, OLG.
  5. $2 CFL #1169 - Worst Top Prize ratio currently for sale with 47% of tickets left and 15% of prize $.


Best Games If All You Want Is the Grand Prize


  1. DBL Cash For Life
  2. Fast 200's - remember, the Grand Prize is $200
  3. 20X The Money
  4. Fruit Explosion
  5. Extraordinary


Games Devoid of Grand Prizes


  • Bejeweled
  • Wheel of Fortune
  • Cashingo
  • Black Jack



Comings and Goings

We are in a turnover phase with two games being deleted and four new games added. See CL66's analysis of the new games in the comments to last week's blog.

The recent top rated game, Diamond 7's, was retired with two Grand Prizes left. Also retired was Words With Friends. That was a welcome deletion as it had no Grand Prizes left.

Added was a variety of new games including a 20 million ticket Crossword game #3209, an old standard Tetris game (2.5 million float), a $5 Crossword Tripler (there is an exisiting version that is a better choice, at present), and a new $10 Classic White game. I welcome a new $10 game as the existing crop of $10 and $20 games has been poor for some time. These games should be offering the best opportunities but they all have negative Top Prize ratios. A comment on the blog indicates that we will be getting another $10 game next week. Woo hoo! Bejeweled is on life support with 0 Grand Prizes and 447,000 tickets left to sell and $20 Extraordinary has been on sale for 14 months and still has over half its float to sell! Get rid of it, I say.

Personal Play

I found one last trove of Diamond 7's at a Petro Canada last week. The six tickets contained three winners of $31. In total, I bought 51 of those tickets, winning on 15 of them for a total return of $147. The biggest prize I won was for $27. About right, TMF?

In Conclusion


It looks like the Thousand Islands, Peterborough, Belleville area is the first "zone" to be "modernized". The announcement of a new operator and the construction of a new gaming facility in Belleville will be coming in the next month. I'm looking forward to parsing through the OLG double speak to see how exactly this thing is going to proceed.

Good Luck to All.

Doug