Keno #1406 is the Holiday Play

With people looking for stocking stuffers, the OLG sold large quantities of the $1 and $2 tickets this past week. The HolTripler, Reindeer Game and Stocking Stuffer all sold over 6% of their entire ticket float during the week. None of those games is worth playing but if you must, $1.00 HolTripler #1675 is by far the best play of the three. Forty percent of the tickets have been sold and 3 of the 4 Grand Prizes remain to be claimed.

There is only one justifiable play and that is the $3 Keno #1406. Over 50% of the tickets have been sold and all 4 Grand Prizes remain to be claimed.

I bought 4 tickets this week, winning on three of them. The total cash was $17.

I will be outlining my strategy for 2012 in my next post along with a detailed summary of activity throughout the year. The beauty of Scratch and Win tickets is that the player surrenders the dreams of the super jackpot in exchange for lots of small cashes and, if you are selective, you can restrict your play to games where the odds justify the play. You can't say that about any other OLG activity.

Keno #1406

Keno #1406 is the clear play. Forty percent of the tickets have been sold and all four $50,000 grand prizes remain to be claimed. The 40% differential overcomes the 36% house take making the game a reasonable wager.


Your chance of winning the $50,000 prize is presently 440,000:1, down from the 733,400:1 it was when the game began.

Cranium fell off of the radar when the second of the three grand prizes was claimed this week. No reporting yet as to where the prize was won.

The Ontario Lottery Corporation applies different principles to games where the grand prize is $100,000 or more. These are all games with a price of $4 or more. Some of the higher priced games do not have $100,000 grand prizes. Of those games currently in play, none is playable. But, if you insist on playing, avoid $10 Classic Black, $10-100 Jumbo, and $5 Merry Money. These games are in an extremely negative position.

Doug

Cranium #1656 and Keno # 1406

There are two games that are now playable with equal merit. Cranium and Keno #1406 differ from each other based upon the following comparison:

Category                                             Cranium                    Keno
Total Tickets Issued                           3,004,500                 2,934,000
Grand Prize                                          $75,000                   $50,000
Odds of any winner                                1 in 3.27                  1 in 2.70
Initial Odds to win Grand P                1,001,500:1                733,500:1
Current Odds                                      495,000:1                 484,000:1
Initial Odds to win at least $1k              24,830:1                   19,430:1
Current "            "        "                        26,797:1                   17,604:1
Initial Odds to win at least $100             1,063:1                     6,608:1
Current '      "               "                         1,053:1                    6,654:1

Cranium has a larger grand prize. The odds to win a grand prize is about the same in either game. Keno has more prizes between the grand prize and the $1000 prizes whereas Cranium has more between $1000 and $100. Keno has more smaller prizes. Play which ever game has the profile that appeals to you most.

I played Cranium 5 times this week winning $15 for a break even week. My friend went out on a raiding mission in North Bay last week purchasing 70 Cranium tickets. His total return was 75% of the money invested without the benefit of a significant prize.

I would advise to get out looking for your Cranium tickets soon. With only 34% of the ticket float left to be purchased, the tickets will soon begin to become scarce. When playing Keno, be sure to get Game #1406.

No Playable Games

One of the $75,000 Cranium prizes was won last week in Mississauga. It remains the best choice but its advantage has been eliminated. Thirty-six percent of tickets remain to be sold and two of the grand prizes remain to be claimed.  The 31% variance almost makes up the house advantage. I have been playing this game but without much success. I am winning at about the published rate but I can only ever win $3, which is no win at all!

Keno 1406 is also a +31 and should be played equally with Cranium. Cash for Life 1154 is +22 and can be played in a pinch. Be careful with Keno and Cash for Life: there are two versions of each game currently in play. In the case of Keno, the other game (1408) is a horrible play. The other Cash For Life (1155) is OK, just not as good as the recommended game.

As for games to avoid, the following games have all had their grand prizes won but are still available for sale:
$1 Line em Up, $3 Bingo 3000, $3 Keno 1408, 

It's Still Cranium #1656

A further three percent of the Cranium tickets were sold this week but none of the $75,000 grand prizes were won. It therefore remains the game of choice. 

Looking ahead, Keno #1408 looks like it could be next but only 19% of those tickets have been sold.

Cranium Remains the Game of Choice

All three $75k grand prizes for Cranium #1656 remain to be claimed. 51% of the tickets have been sold making it the only currently playable game.

For those who prefer other games - watch out! There are currently six games currently being sold where all the Grand prizes have been already claimed. Avoid the following games:

$1 Line em Up - The largest prize left to claim is $100!
$2 Bonus Banco - The largest prize left to claim is $500!
$3 Bingo 3000 - The largest prize left to claim is $5050!
$3 Keno 1408 - The largest prize left to claim is $5000!
$5 Jacks are Wild - The largest prize left to claim is $27,500!
$5 Multi Mult - The largest prize left to claim is $25,000!

Would you buy a raffle ticket if you knew that the top prize had already been given away?

Why does the Ontario Lottery Corporation continue to allow games to continue when this is the case? Why are other games with outstanding tickets canceled before the top prizes are awarded? More on this in future entries.

New Play - Cranium #1656

The Cash for Life #1154 game only lasted two weeks. A lucky player in Sturgeon Falls of all places won a grand prize. The result is that only one Grand Prize remains for the game and it is no longer playable according to our rules.

The new game (and only playable one at this time) is the $3 Cranium #1656.

This game provides players with 3 Grand Prizes of $75,000 each, a 1 in 3.27 chance of getting a winning ticket and 65% return on investment for the game. The current stats indicate that all 3 grand prizes are left to be claimed and 44% of all tickets have been sold. This produces a game rating of +9. We only play games with positive ratings.

The current "avoid" list includes Line Em Up 1639, Bonus Banco 1619, Keno 1406, Money Mult 1673, all of which have had all of the grand prizes already claimed. Would you buy a raffle ticket if you knew that the grand prize(s) had already been awarded?

New Play - Cash for Life #1154

The 20X Lucky game is no longer the recommended play. Two of the $100k prizes were claimed last week: one in Cornwall and 1 in Fort Erie. They were claimed on the same day! What were the chances?

The new game of choice is the $4 Cash for Life 1154. Be careful as there are two Cash for Life games currently being sold. At present, two of the three Grand Prizes remain outstanding and 74% of all the tickets have been sold.

This is a large game with over 7 million tickets in circulation. By Comparison, the 20X Lucky Game issue was slightly over 2 million. Another quirky aspect to this game is that the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th prizes ($50k, $10k, $5k) only have one ticket issued for each prize. You are three times as likely to win the grand prize than you are any one of the secondary top prizes.

Current Playable Scratch and Win Games

List of current games playable according to Usockem Blog rules:

1. $5 20X Lucky 1638 -  +50
2. $5 Atari 1658 - +4
3. $2 Diamond Dazz 1645 - +2
4. $3 Bingo 3000 - +1
5. $4 Cash for Life 1154 - +0

Avoidance Warning!!!
Games where all the grand prizes have already been claimed:

$1 Bingo Express 1642
$1 Line em Up 1639
$3 Keno 1408
$3 More Lucky 1621

Rules of Play

Everyone who plays the lottery wants to win the grand prize for that lottery. Would anyone sit down to play a slot machine if they knew that the jackpot was not winnable? This blog is intended to identify to Scratch and Win players which games are the best to play at any particular moment.

How is this determined? Three simple rules:

1. Calculate the percentage of grand prizes left to be claimed in any one game.
2. Subtract the percentage of tickets left to be purchased.*
3. Subtract the take-out for the game. **
4. Only games with a positive result are playable, the game with the highest rating is the recommended choice.


* Estimated by calculating the % of all other prizes left to be claimed as detailed on the OLG site.
** Information is available on the OLG game detail sheets.
   

Scarcity of Tickets for 20X Lucky

During the course of the past week, 3% of the total 20X Lucky tickets have been sold bringing the total sold to 83%. All three $100,000 prizes remain to be claimed. It is getting harder and harder to find tickets but keep your search active. This game is by far the best one to play at the moment.

20X Lucky Remains the Choice

As of Friday the 9th, 20X Lucky remains the best choice of games. Only 19% of tickets remain to be sold with all 3 Grand Prizes remaining outstanding. Ticket sellers may tell you that the game has ended: it has not. All the tickets have been distributed and many sellers are sold out but the game remains active. Keep your eye for these tickets.

A friend was able to find 18 tickets over the course of the past week. The game has over 200,000 $20 prizes. He was able to play those 18 tickets and return $85 of the $90 invested. I have not been as fortunate.

20X Lucky

This game is highly recommended. It is estimated that only 20% of the tickets remain unsold but all three $100,000 prizes remain unclaimed. The take out for the game is 33%. Your odds of getting a jackpot winning ticket are presently 176,000:1 versus the 840,500:1 when the game began. Your chances of winning any prize are 3.38:1.

Games to avoid at the present time include $1 Bingo Express 1642, $1 Line em Up 1639, $2 Slot of Cash 1648, and $3 More Lucky. All of the top prizes have already been claimed for each of those games.

First Blog

Visit this blog to identify the best Scratch and Win tickets available for play in Ontario. Only 4% of lottery players regularly play scratch and win. This is remarkable given that it is the only form of play where the player can actually receive favourable odds.

The attraction of the big jackpot fuels the main lotteries. Multi-million dollar scores but the odds of winning the 649 are 14 million: 1! As such, players should not be buying tickets until the prize is $14 million. But by that time the number of players expands exponentially and the pot is usually split more than one way.

With scratch and win tickets the entire outcome of the game is predetermined. A player can determine what their odds are of winning the jackpot and of winning any one prize. The Ontario Lottery Corporation kindly publishes what the current status is of all games on a regular basis. With this information a player knows if the jackpot(s) has been won or not for any particular game and the player can estimate how many tickets have been sold to date.  Scratch and win games return between 60% -70% of the total revenue taken into the players, assuming that all tickets are sold. The more expensive the ticket, the higher the return. When one combines this information with the unsold ticket information, a player is able to identify lotteries where the purchase of a ticket actually puts the player in a position where the odds are in their favour. Granted, the odds of winning a jackpot will always be low but why not only play games where the wager is justified? Scratch and Win games give the player a chance to make a “value play”. Why not improve your chances of winning?

Visit this blog regularly to see what games are recommended for play. 

Usockem