15X The Money - "Dead Game Walking" But Still On Top

The top rated game remains 15X The Money. The game has been de-activated meaning that I'm looking for scraps but it remains a solid choice with only 13% of its Top Prizes left to be claimed that represent 21% of the money allocated to the Top Prizes.

Poster JayDee was on the hunt yesterday for these tickets and managed to find quite a few. Check the comments to last weeks post for details.

The game offers one remaining outstanding Grand Prize from an estimated 430,000 tickets. Without that single prize the game would not be recommended so, if you're inclined to buy some, always ask the retailer for an up to date printout of the outstanding Grand Prizes. At present, 5.8 cents of every dollar spent on the game is allocated to that one outstanding Grand Prize. That number is only surpassed by the democratically premised Fast 200's and 500 Frenzy.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 15X The Money #1840
2. $ 5 Cross Tripler #1830 - Solid second choice and lots of tickets available. 
3. $3 Super Bingo #3018 - Best small prize return of any game. 
4. $10 Classic White #1844 - First $10-$20 game to hit the list since Classic Ruby in April. 
5. $3 Crossword #3209 - Strong on all evaluation factors. 

Games to Avoid

1. $1 5X The Money #1838 - 32% of Top Prizes left and 5% of the Top Prize money. 
2. $5 500 Frenzy #1853 - rating system punishes the game but don't hesitate to buy, if you like it. 
3. $2 Fast 200's #1817 - Same as above
4. $4 Cash For Life #1167 - Two of three jumbo Grand Prizes gone and 73% of float remains!
5. $2 10X The Money #1839 - Poorly rated on all factors. 

Games To Play If All You Want Is A Grand Prize

1. 500 Frenzy
2. Fast 200's
3. 15X The Money
4. Fortune
5. Extraordinary

Games Devoid of Grand Prizes

• 5X The Money
• Tetris
• Silver Gold

Comings and Goings

QFG Crossword #3208 was retired with no Grand Prizes remaining and 24 of the 26 million ticket float sold! A huge success for the OLG.

Not much else to report as OLG headquarters is likely operating with skeleton staff. I wonder where folks in Sault Ste Marie vacation? I have a friend who grew up in Thunder Bay. His family cottage was a ten minute drive from his house! Being from Toronto, that always seemed bizarre to me. Anyways, I wish the OLG staff a relaxing, well earned rest.

Personal Play

Four Crystal 7's included two winners of $5 each; four Cross Tripler #1830 included one winner of $30; and three 15X The Money included one winner of $3. In total, $43 from a $49 investment. The extremely good part of this "WDL" (Win disguised as loss: Thanks Tommy) is that the $30 winning ticket was not detected until the ticket was verified at the retailers!

Post Script

Sweet Cash, Cash For Life, Crystal 7's and Cash Blast all took serious hits over the past 10 days. If you're playing those games, do a double take on the numbers before you buy.

Thanks to Tommy for all of his insightful posts this past week. If you don't read the comments to these posts I recommend that you do for last weeks post. Tommy's comments succeed in ensuring that we are all realistic about this nutty endeavour. Here is some useful advice he provided in response to a post from CL66:

1. For those who know what your number crunch is, THAT is where your credibility lies.

2. I'm glad you post the odds with your winning tickets because it's important for blog readers to see how difficult it is to win.

3. One's experience is one's own. As the bottle on my desk says, individual reactions may vary. Symptoms may include nausea (looking at a pile of losing tickets), insomnia (thinking of losing tickets), diarrhea (totally irrelevant here), etc..

4. Readers should keep in mind not to interpret luck for skill. The odds are the odds. Although the number crunch helps steer readers to where the odds are better, they could still be mind boggling.

5. More important than wins are percentages. Winning $50 after spending $100 is similar to winning $5000 after spending $10,000.

6. If we were all to post our losers... ....


And thanks for the responses to Jackson Brown. I was away for several days. Someone posted a similar thing some months ago and I deleted it. I'm very reluctant to do so but attempts to defraud people is not something I can abide by. Those of you who responded to the original post did so in a most entertaining fashion.

Good luck to all.


Doug






  

15X The Money Holds On To Top Spot

The top rated game coughed up a Grand Prize over the past 10 days but continues to hold on to the top placing. The game retains one of its three Grand Prizes with only 15% of its float left to sell. Consequently, the tickets should be entering their "scarcity" phase. Your odds to snag the last Grand Prize are 1:484,620, which is not too good. In fact, the second and third rated games currently offer better odds on winning their respective Grand Prizes. The game does offer the best overall Top Prize money to actual Top Prizes of 1.46:1 which is why the game sits atop the list. That said, we are in a phase where there is no stand-out game. Any of the top rated games are on almost equal footing.

Top Rated Games

1. 15X The Money #1840
2. Cross Tripler #1830 - Strong on all rating factors and 60% of the float remains.
3. Crystal 7's #1848 - Well rated. Equal to Cross Tripler.
4. Scrabble #1835 - Number two on the Top Prize $ to Top Prizes remaining list. 
5. Crossword #3209 - Number 3 small prize availability and a positive Top Prize ratio. 

Games to Avoid

1. 5X The Money #1838 - No Grand Prizes left and lots of tickets to sell. Dangerous. 
2. 500 Frenzy #1853 - See "Comings and Goings" Comment
3. Fast 200's #1817 - Same as above
4. 10X The Money #1839 - 3 of 4 Grand Prizes claimed and 55% of float remains.
5. Tetris #1832 - Devoid of Grand Prizes

Games to Play If All You Want Is The Grand Prize

1. 500 Frenzy
2. Fast 200s
3. Cash Blast
4. Extreme
5. Cash For Life

Games Devoid Of Grand Prizes

• 5X The Money
• Tetris
• Silver Gold
• QFG Crossword

Comings and Goings

Cross Tripler #1810 and the Interprovincial game Classic Ruby were both deleted this past week. The games came on line around the same time. Each had one Grand Prize left to claim. Cross Tripler had 878,000 tickets left to sell at $5 out of an initial float of 8.6 million whereas Classic Ruby had 2.4 million tickets to sell out of a float of 6.8 million. There is a price resistance point in there somewhere.

New to the scene is an inter-provincial game (Extreme Millions) which looks a lot like Extraordinary except some of the Top Prize money is shifted towards the Grand Prizes. The new game has already given up one of its Grand Prizes to a winner in Mitchell, Ontario as reported in the comments to last weeks blog entry. I expect that Extraordinary is on its last legs. Its been on sale since April 2014 and still has half of its float to sell. Lets see if the new ticket prompts some easy sales.

Sweet Cash is a new $3 game most similar to Scrabble. 

Finally, $500 Frenzy is an upscale version of Fast 200's. These games are quite different from the other games and are punished by my evaluation method. I consider them to be outliers and should not be avoided because my method does not like them. $500 Frenzy offers one chance in 560 to Win A Grand Prize of $500 and one chance in 295 to win at least $100. That's not bad. True, the pot of gold offered by large Grand Prizes is missing and your chances to cash for any prize of more than the cost of the ticket is the worst of any game, but both games warrant some consideration.

Personal Play

Ten 15X The Money tickets contained 10 winners totaling $41. Pretty good once you get over the irritation of "winning" your money back. I guess its better than a slot machine that costs you 50 cents per play and the confounded thing acts like you won something when you get 20 cents of your 50 cents returned to you.

Post Script

The summer must be winding down as the number of comments made to the blog are on the upswing. I enjoy reading about how folks are doing and any other irreverent thoughts that people may have. Visitors should check those comments to see CL66's detailed reviews of new games and his charts of odds breakdowns.

This story from Simcoe.com caught my attention this past week: http://www.simcoe.com/news-story/5792716-barrie-gas-station-thief-flees-with-scratch-tickets/ . My immediate thought was to call the police and report TMF as a possible suspect but I don't think that he ever comes further east than the Guelph line. Maybe Darth....

I was in the USA last week and my traveling companion picked up a few scratch tickets. He was a winner with the first $2 ticket that he purchased and he wants you all to know that.

Lastly, I received a message from an individual who had closed down their PlayOLG account due to consistent and painful losses. I want that person to know that being able to identify that they are vulnerable is a clear sign that they're going to get the problem under control. The chart I posted the other week showed clearly that people who have voluntarily entered the "self exclusion" offered by OLG predominantly live in the areas where slot palaces/casinos are located. That stands to reason.

The Play OLG site brings the casino right into your home. What could be more dangerous? Yet the OLG loves to present itself as being concerned about your "responsible" play. Bunkum. It's organizations like this one  http://www.problemgambling.ca or this one http://www.responsiblegambling.org that are truly dedicated to the problem.

The OLG has been mandated to provide lip service to the problem and they do just that but everything they do is designed to put more and more people at risk. That's how they increase the money that they return to the Provincial Treasurer. It's a tough ethical position that Governments everywhere face. It's my view that the OLG should be freed from this inconsistent mandate. Let them concentrate on maximizing profits but give another organization power over how that is ultimately done. Asking the OLG to self police is not fair to them or us. I'd be interested to hear of any other readers experiences on www.playolg.ca


Good Luck to all.


Doug