Monday 18 August 2014

More Lucky Lines Remains the Champ - For What Its Worth

I was surprised to get back from vacation to see that More Lucky Lines was still for sale. I called the OLG to confirm the situation and they told me that it is indeed the case.  I can't be bothered to provide any details on the game's status as there is little chance that anyone will be able to find a ticket.

The OLG retires games in two ways. First, they can instruct sellers to return all tickets, including any in trays for sale. This would happen if there was a defect found in the game or fraud was suspected. The second way is to inform sellers that they are no longer permitted to activate any new packages but can continue to sell tickets that were activated previously. This would take place if the game was being retired for reasons of low sales, time on market, or a new version of the game coming on-line. In the case of More Lucky Lines, sellers were instructed on 01 August not to activate any new packages. What are the chances that you'll be able to find loose tickets for sale almost three weeks later? Well, I'm not going to spend any time finding out. If you run across them, scoop them up.


 MORE LUCKY LINES

Top Rated Games


  1. $3 More Lucky Lines - (16% of float left +/- 3%) 
  2. $5 Money Multiplier - (11%, +/- 2%)
  3. $10 Prestige (25%, +/- 7%)
  4. $1 Red Hot 50s (15%, +/- 1%)
  5. $10 Wild 10s (81%, +/- 2%)


Games to Avoid


  1. $10 Turbo Cash - Top three prizes all claimed. OLG has retired the game. 
  2. $5 Sapphire 7's - Top two prize levels claimed.
  3. $2 Crazy 8's - 4 of 5 top prizes claimed and 44% of float remains
  4. $3 Fruit Explosion - 2 of 3 top prizes claimed in first 34% of the float
  5. $3 Crossword 3206 - 1 chance in 2 million to win $50,000. Not encouraging. 


$1 - $2 Game Update

Red Hot 50s is the best choice but I don't like the $50 Grand Prize. Next best is $1 Bingo Express but best to look elsewhere.

$3 Game Update

Putting the top game aside, Scrabble 1799 is the best choice.

$4 - $5 Game Update

If you can find any Money Multiplier tickets, give them a try.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Classic Gold and Cadillac (poster CL66 likes this game) are poor choices. All others are playable, assuming that Turbo Cash is no longer available.

Comings and Goings

The horrible Tetris game was retired after the OLG had milked it for all it was worth. Shame on them for that. 20X Lucky was also retired with one Grand Prize remaining and 12% of the float.

Five new games have come on line since the last update. Fruit Explosion #1803 has unfortunately lost 2 of its three Grand Prizes early on in the history of the game. One to avoid. Instant Crossword #3206 is one of those jumbo games with over 20 million tickets issued. It is a bread and butter game for the OLG but it sucks for players. There are lots of small prizes but less than 1 percent of the game's revenue is returned to Grand Prize winners. Too low. Jacks are Wild #1787 is a well balanced game with potential to improve in the ratings. The one thing I don't like about the game is that there are 7 Grand Prizes and only 2 Second Prizes. Your chance to find a second prize is 1 in 1.4 million but only 1 in 400,000 to win a Grand Prize. Counter intuitive. Cross Tripler #1791 is not as good as its sister version #1766. It's OK but I don't like the 13.6% of game revenue that is returned to players who win their $5 back. That is the highest such number in the $5 group of tickets. Wild 10's #1785 has an imbalance towards the Grand Prize with 10.7% of game revenue going to those winners. There are 150 of them. You pay the price in smaller prizes with only 43.4% of revenue being returned to winners of more than $10 and less than $100. That is second lowest in the group.

Personal Play

One More Lucky Lines ticket was a dud.

More Lucky Lines and Money Multiplier are going to be nigh impossible to find. Prestige is next but I have played them before and am not enthused about returning to that game. I don't like playing $1 games so Red Hot 50s is out. That leaves me with Wild 10s which also happens to be CL66's top game. Let's give it a whirl.


Meanderings

More Lucky Lines is a true enigma. All four of the top prizes and all three of the second prizes remain unclaimed. At the same time, only 3 of the 105 -  $538 prizes remain outstanding and all 12 of the $500 have been claimed. What are the chances that this game could sell 85% of its float and not reveal any Grand Prizes? Less than 1 in a thousand. Outliers do occur and this is surely one for the record books. CL66 mentioned in a post that the floats are printed in tranches. Makes perfect sense. Another poster mentioned that with a house take of 35%, there is no need for any shenanigans by management. I agree. Further, the OLG is a public sector organization which means that it is run by Public Servants. All of this leads to the conclusion that we are just looking at a odd ball situation.

But I am left with the uncomfortable thought that they sold 2.5 million tickets for the game and then decided to retire it before any Grand Prizes were awarded. If I ran a raffle, sold tickets, and decided that there would be no winners, I think that I might get a visit from my local police officer.

So, why did the OLG make this decision and is it in the public interest or the interest of the OLG?  In such instances, the public interest should always come first. Lets look at some of the math:

If the OLG had sold every ticket for the game they would have generated total revenue of $3 x 2,949,000 tickets = $8,849,000. The house take was 35% or $3,097,290. I now make an assumption that the OLG pays a total of 15% of revenue to pay the sellers and the company that prints the tickets. That reduces the profit to $1,769,880. We need to take 84% of that number as that is how much of the float was ultimately sold. The estimated final profit is therefore $1,486,699.

Now lets look at the top seven prizes for the game. Those prizes totaled $245,000. If 84% of those prizes had been won, they would have cashed for $205,800 with $39,200 left outstanding. By retiring the game the OLG became the winners of the $205,800. That decision added a full 12% to the profitability of the game. That stinks and I can't help but think that the decision maker(s) knew exactly what they were doing.

I encourage readers to call the OLG call center and register their dissatisfaction. Poor old Darth deserves no less.

In Unity

Doug












Saturday 2 August 2014

More Lucky Lines #1776 Hits The Stratosphere

Another 75,000 sold of the top rated game and again no winners of either the first or second prizes. I have never seen a game similar to this before. This game could now lose one of its grand prizes and continue to be the top rated game.

How strange is the situation? Consider this: All seven of the Grand and second prizes remain outstanding while out of the original 12 - $500 and 13 - $1000 prizes, only one remains outstanding. What are the chances of that!  The problem now is finding tickets. Based on reader comments, they are becoming scarce. I have had the same problem here in Ottawa.

Your chances to win a grand prize are now 170,000:1. For those who are fed up with the game, I should mention that $5 Money Multiplier #1769 is also a very good choice at the moment. You have a 160,000:1 chance to win $100,000 for a $5 investment.

MORE LUCKY LINES


Top Rated Games


  1. $3 More Lucky Lines #1776 (17% of float left +/- 3%)
  2. $5 Money Multiplier #1769 (13% of float left +/- 2%)
  3. $10 Prestige #1741 (26% of float left +/- 7%)
  4. $1 Red Hot 50s #1788 (16% of float left +/- 1%)
  5. $4 Bonus Cash For Life #1168 (91% of float left +/- 3%)


Games To Avoid


  1. $10 Turbo Cash - no 1st, 2nd or 3rd prizes left. Largest available prize is $225!
  2. $3 Tetris - No 1st or 2nd prizes left. 
  3. $2 Crazy 8s - lost 2 Grand Prizes last week. 1 chance in 1.5 milion to win $28,888.
  4. $1 Lucky Lines - stinker of a game. OLG must be trying to counterbalance top game :-)
  5. $5 Win Take All - Only 2 of 7 Grand Prizes left and 45% of the tickets left to sell.


$1 - $2 Game Update

Red Hot 50s is the only game worth playing. You must be content with a $50 Grand Prize, but there are 1,780 of them remaining to be claimed.

$3 Game Update

Apart from the top rated game, Scrabble #1799 is the next best choice.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Apart from the top games and game to avoid, I would avoid Cash For Life #1161. Its 2nd, 3rd, and 4th prizes have all been claimed.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Two Turbo Cash and two Extraordinary Grand Prizes were claimed this past week. Prestige is the best choice.


Comings and Goings

A new Wild 10s game was just released. The game sheet has not yet been posted on the OLG site. This is a game like Red Hot 50s except for the $10 crowd. There are 150 Grand Prizes of $10,000 each. This game was issued last year and it did well in my ratings. Plus, it tends not to either improve or deteriorate due to the large number of Grand Prizes. I suspect that it will be worth a look.

Personal Play

My two week win streak came to an end. Nine More Lucky Line tickets contained 3 winners of $13. I remain ahead of expectations for the game and sit at a 69% ROI for the year. Not bad.

Meanderings

I am off to Saratoga next week then to a cottage for a week. The next update will likely be done on August 17th. Remember to check the web page for outstanding prizes right before you buy. The retailer can provide you with a printout of the prize status. Also remember to always check your tickets before tossing them out. I'll report on Scratch tickets in New York State next time.

There was a lot of activity in the reader comments this past week. CL66 has posted his analysis of the situation along with his recommendations. He rates $10 Cadillac as the top game. He is using a different evaluation system than I do so, if you want a second opinion, take a look at his comments.

I am going to find it interesting to see what the OLG does with Turbo Cash. If they follow their policy, because the Grand Prize for the game is $250,000, the game should be retired now that it is devoid of Grand Prizes. But there remains 40% of the float to sell! On the other hand we have More Lucky Lines with a Grand Prize of less than $100,000, all of its Grand Prizes left, and 17% of its float to sell. Another criteria to retire a game is low ticket sales. It stands to reason that sales will decrease as the number of tickets left to sell decreases. I'd love to be a fly on the wall of the weekly meeting where these sorts of things are discussed. Those folks should know that we're watching them :-)


Best to all.


Doug