Strange Days Indeed

Now that we are 100 days into the world of Covid, I decided to do a blog update. Personally, I have not been purchasing any tickets but I can feel the urge returning, bit by bit. My local variety store has been open almost throughout this ordeal but I've been too cautious to go inside.That could change shortly.

When I reviewed the outstanding prize information that I use for the updates, I was shocked at the number of games that were in positive status. Many were in unbelievably strong "buy" positions. In fact, it was so strong as to not be possible.

After thinking about the situation for a while, the eureka moment struck me. What's going on is that OLG Prize Center has been closed since min-March. At present, people can cash winning tickets of less that $1000 at local retailers, if those retailers have a sufficient float. Tickets from between $1000 and $50,000 can be mailed in to the OLG. The website warns that the vetting process normally takes 4-6 weeks. This will be extended due to Covid. I also have to ask myself that if I had a $5000 winning ticket, would I mail it in? Not likely. All tickets of $50,000 or greater cannot be cashed at present.

The result is that web site shows many games that were launched over the past four months as having all or almost all of their Grand Prizes remaining outstanding. People are cashing small tickets at their local retailers so it appears that the games are proceeding as one would expect from that vantage point.

So, what games to play at this time? I would recommend either games that are brand new or the games with large numbers of grand prizes. In the latter category, it is very difficult for an imbalance to be created given the large number of winning tickets. If you're buying any other games there is a chance that the Grand Prizes have been either all or mostly won. On that basis, here is my recommended list of games:

$3 Bingo 3030 (beware and avoid version 3029)
$3 Crossword 3228 (beware versions 3226 and 3227)
$3 Wild $100  2177
$5 Bingo Doubler 2180 (beware version 2171)
$5 Fast $500 2183
$5 Tripling 2186
$10 5000 Flash 2174


OLG News

Of note is the $500 million line of credit that the Province has extended to the OLG. One would think that a positive side effect of the privatization of the the casinos would be that the off loading of risk would have worked in their favour. However, one of the reasons for the financial support is the "Contractual Payments to Casino Operators!" Huh? Someone needs to look under that stone.

The OLG also lost a court case recently as it relates to First Nations groups. The original agreements called for First Nations groups to receive 1.7% of all OLG revenue. It was the OLG's view that since the casinos had been privatized, the casino companies fell outside that agreement. Not so said a judge.

The OLG is now only reporting financially on an annual basis. They used to report quarterly but now the casino revenue is accruing to private businesses. I'm particularly interested in their revenue from www.playolg.ca . The OLG made lots of predictions about the growth in revenue from that source and that was before the Covid closures of casinos. It's my view that the revenue growth there will not be explosive. I have a friend who logged on, deposited $100 and promptly lost it on the virtual slots. He won't go back. There is something discomforting about losing money on a fake slot machine. I want to know if other people have the same reaction that I do.

Lastly, a feather for the OLG. Poster AJ had some damaged tickets that he mailed into the OLG. The OLG verified the tickets and sent him his winnings in prompt order. For more information, drop AJ a line.


Stay save everyone. The OLG needs your money.


Doug

Wild Cards #2166 is the Recommended Game

In the midst of a pandemic coupled with a stock market crash, thank goodness the world of scratch tickets remains unscathed.

The top game, Wild Cards, is presently enjoying a 47% positive Grand Prize imbalance. Further, 1 of 2 second prizes is outstanding and 2 of 4 third prizes. An estimated 70% of the float remains to be sold which means that the tickets should be readily available.

Players should look out for Super Money and Pac Man. All the Grand Prizes have been claimed for both games. For Super Money, the Grand Prize is $250,000 which, according to OLG rules, must result in the cancellation of the game. Lets see how long it takes them to get around to it seeing as an estimated 30% of the float remains to be sold.

Players face the situation that The Big Spin and Bingo Multiplier both have two versions of the game running at the same time. For the Big Spin, play Game #3103 and for Bingo Multiplier search the less abundant Game # 3070.

In the news this week is the announcement that Stephen Rigby is leaving his CEO position this coming summer. Rigby was the President of the Canada Border Services Agency before coming to the OLG. The articles in the paper list his salary at $800k with a severence package of $1 million. Let's not forget that he is not the first OLG President to reach those compensation highs. His predecessor, Rod Phillips, was the first to pull in big numbers. He achieved his during a period of Liberal government austerity. Senior public servant salaries had been frozen but Rod managed to spit that hook when Paul Godfrey doubled his annual bonus pushing his compensation into the same strata. Sneaky, eh? Oh yea, this is the same Rod Phillips who is now the Minister of Finance for the Government of Ontario.

I suspect that Rigby decided to jump before the unrealistic projections from the OLG Modernization Plan, drafted by Phillips, become seen as the pie in the sky falsehoods that were used to justify the privatization of the casinos in Ontario. Further, the OLG will be reducing staff in the coming year and no public executive wants to be on the bridge for that. Stay tuned to see who the next person with no gaming experience is who is chosen to head the gambling monopoly known as OLG.

$5	2166	Wild Cards	Excellent
$1	2152	Fiesta Treas	Very Good
$3	2080	Scrabble	Very Good
$3	2178	Slots	Very Good
$10	2130	Bigger Spin	Very Good
$10	2175	Monopoly	Very Good
$3	2182	Round Trip Rich	Good
$5	2138	Bingo Doubler	Good
$10	2170	Cross Deluxe	Good
$10	2054	Royale	Good
$10	3070	Bingo Multiplier	Good
$30	2055	Triple Million	Good
$50	2159	Classic Extra	Good
$1	2143	Emoji Money	Neutral
$2	2149	Movie Money	Neutral
$3	2177	Wild 100	Neutral
$3	3227	Cross Word	Neutral
$4	1175	Cash For Life	Neutral
$5	2171	Bingo Doubler	Neutral
$5	2135	Cross Tripler	Neutral
$5	2183	Fast 500	Neutral
$5	2126	Sizzling 5's	Neutral
$5	3103	The Big Spin	Neutral
$10	2155	Cash Blowout	Neutral
$10	3071	Bingo Multiplier	Neutral
$20	2052	Supreme	Neutral
$20	2168	Cash Club	Neutral
$20	2172	Super Set For Life	Neutral
$3	3029	Bingo	Poor
$20	2156	Celebrate 2020	Poor
$3	2142	Pac Man	Terrible
$5	3101	The Big Spin	Terrible
$10	2162	Super Money	Terrible

More Turnover

About half a dozen games have been eliminated since the last update. New games coming on board include a new Bingo Doubler (2171), Emoji Money (2143), Fast 500 (2183), and Cash Blowout (2155).

The size of the float for Scrabble 2080 is dwindling. You may have trouble finding those tickets. Apart from that one, Slots 2178 is the top rated game.

JD posted last week about an individual player who has knocked down several big pots in Point Spread Pools. It does strike me as strange and I am going to look into it. I doubt that there is anything fishy going on although one can never be certain of that. This chap, Jeffrey Cisma, obviously puts a lot of money into the pools. It may be that because he buys a lot of tickets that he can gain an advantage over players who only play one or two tickets per pool. By playing a lot he can take underdogs that players who only play a couple of tickets would stay away from. Regardless, he has to overcome a steep house cut. I'll keep you updated.

An article this past week indicated that the OLG will be reducing the size of its workforce. I never want to see someone lose their job but this move seems inevitable. They sold off the operating of all the casinos and their head office head count did not budge. The number of OLG staff who made the Sunshine List did not budge between 2018 and 2019. At the same time, the OLG's contributions to the Provincial Treasury failed to meet projections. Something needed to be done. Maybe OLG CEO Stephen Rigby could take a salary hair cut given the level of his current compensation.

$3	2080	Scrabble	Excellent
$3	2178	Slots	Excellent
$5	2166	Wild Cards	Very Good
$10	2054	Royale	Very Good
$20	2052	Supreme	Very Good
$5	2138	Bingo Doubler	Good
$10	2130	Bigger Spin	Good
$10	2175	Monopoly	Good
$10	3070	Bingo Multiplier	Good
$20	2156	Celebrate 2020	Good
$30	2055	Triple Million	Good
$50	2159	Classic Extra	Good
$1	2143	Emoji Money	Neutral
$1	2152	Fiesta Treas	Neutral
$2	2149	Movie Money	Neutral
$3	2177	Wild 100	Neutral
$3	3227	Cross Word	Neutral
$3	3029	Bingo	Neutral
$4	1175	Cash For Life	Neutral
$5	2098	Bling	Neutral
$5	2135	Cross Tripler	Neutral
$5	2183	Fast 500	Neutral
$5	2126	Sizzling 5's	Neutral
$10	2155	Cash Blowout	Neutral
$10	2170	Cross Deluxe	Neutral
$10	2129	25x Multiplier	Neutral
$20	2168	Cash Club	Neutral
$20	2172	Super Set For Life	Neutral
$3	2142	Pac Man	Poor
$5	2171	Bingo Doubler	Poor
$5	3101	The Big Spin	Poor
$3	3225	QFG Crossword	Terrible
$10	2162	Super Money	Terrible

Turnover Time

You know that the Christmas Season is behind us when the OLG retires all of it's Christmas games. Gone from play are: Fiesta Treasure, Peppermint, Bling, Bigger Spin, Instant Gift Pack and Festive Feast.

In the world of extremes, we lost More Lucky Lines last update with all three of its Grand Prizes left to be claimed. A nice little gift for the OLG. On the other extreme we have the Quest for Gold ticket which has the worst profile I have ever seen. The Top Prize list shows that all of the games Top prizes ($50k, $25k, $10k, $5k) have been claimed yet the game remains for sale. The OLG gains on the turns as well as the straightaways.

We have three new games this update including a new version of the $5 Bingo Doubler. If you like that game, try to pick up the earlier version 2138 as it is a better proposition at this point.

I picked up a Cross Deluxe ticket yesterday and was pleased that I won $10 with it. Lo and behold, when I checked it on the OLG App, I had won $40. That win offsets about half of the money I lost chasing a Grand Prize on More Lucky Lines. It is also another example that you should check every single ticket you purchase with either the App or the ticket checker in the store. This is not the first time that I have won a prize and did not know it. The OLG enjoys enough advantages in these games without me adding my own advancing senility to the list.

Keep warm.


Doug

$3	2177	Wild 100	New
$5	2171	Bingo Doubler	New
$10	2155	Cash Blowout	New
$3	3027	Bingo	Very Good
$3	2080	Scrabble	Very Good
$3	2178	Slots	Very Good
$10	2170	Cross Deluxe	Very Good
$10	2054	Royale	Very Good
$1	2152	Fiesta Treas	Good
$3	3227	Cross Word	Good
$5	2138	Bingo Doubler	Good
$5	2135	Cross Tripler	Good
$5	2086	Ruby 7's	Good
$5	2166	Wild Cards	Good
$10	3070	Bingo Multiplier	Good
$20	2156	Celebrate 2020	Good
$20	2052	Supreme	Good
$2	2161	Ontario Love	Neutral
$3	3029	Bingo	Neutral
$3	2142	Pac Man	Neutral
$3	2158	Strike Spare	Neutral
$5	2126	Sizzling 5's	Neutral
$20	2168	Cash Club	Neutral
$20	2172	Super Set For Life	Neutral
$30	2055	Triple Million	Neutral
$50	2159	Classic Extra	Neutral
$2	2149	Movie Money	Poor
$4	1175	Cash For Life	Poor
$10	2129	25x Multiplier	Poor
$5	3101	The Big Spin	Very Poor
$10	2162	Super Money	Very Poor
$2	2163	Stock Stuff	Terrible
$3	3225	QFG Crossword	Disaster

More Lucky Lines is Retired

As predicted, More Lucky Lines was retired at the end of December. Over 90% of the ticket float was sold and none of the 3 Grand Prizes were claimed. No doubt the OLG has its rationalization in hand and it is logical but the whole thing does not sit well with me. A poster to the last update suggested that all $3 games with ticket floats of 3 million tickets (small games) have a 3 month lifespan. That's curious. I've never heard that before but the post makes sense. I'm going to follow up with the OLG to confirm. At any rate, the game is gone.

I was able to discover some troves of tickets in the wind up of the game - 55 in total. Players scratching that many tickets should expect a return approaching the overall numbers for the game. Given that the Grand Prize winners win a much lower percentage of the pot than Lotto games, one should expect that a higher percentage of winnings are returned to the winners of smaller prizes. This proved to be the case for me. My total return was 65.45% of my investment versus the published return of 64.95%. One in every 3.24 tickets was a winner versus the published number of 3.27. One can't get much closer that that.

My current assessment of active games follows:

$3	2178	Slots	New
$20	2168	Cash Club	New
$20	2172	Super Set For Life	New
$3	3027	Bingo	Very Good
$5	2135	Cross Tripler	Very Good
$10	3070	Bingo Multiplier	Very Good
$10	2054	Royale	Very Good
$1	2152	Fiesta Treas	Good
$3	2080	Scrabble	Good
$5	2138	Bingo Doubler	Good
$5	2164	Holiday Win	Good
$5	2086	Ruby 7's	Good
$5	2126	Sizzling 5's	Good
$10	2130	Bigger Spin Win	Good
$10	2170	Cross Deluxe	Good
$20	2052	Supreme	Good
$3	3029	Bingo	Neutral
$3	3227	Cross Word	Neutral
$3	2142	Pac Man	Neutral
$3	2167	Peppermint	Neutral
$3	2158	Strike Spare	Neutral
$4	1175	Cash For Life	Neutral
$5	2098	Bling	Neutral
$10	1926	Instant Gift Pack	Neutral
$10	2162	Super Money	Neutral
$20	2156	Celebrate 2020	Neutral
$20	2169	Festive Fest	Neutral
$30	2055	Triple Million	Neutral
$50	2159	Classic Extra	Neutral
$2	2149	Movie Money	Poor
$2	2161	Ontario Love	Poor
$5	3101	The Big Spin	Poor
$5	2166	Wild Cards	Poor
$10	2129	25x Multiplier	Very Poor
$1	2160	Jewel Jackpot	Terrible
$2	2163	Stock Stuff	Terrible
$3	3225	QFG Crossword	Terrible

It does strike me that there appears to be more big ticket games ($10 and up) than what was the case a five years ago when this blog began. I'm going to run a comparison for discussion in the next update.

Happy Scratching

Doug

Lucky Lines - Game No 2144

The recommended game for play continues to be More Lucky Lines. One hundred and seventy-five of the 908 top prizes have been claimed. This suggests that 19% of the tickets remain to be sold. The reason that the game is recommended is that all three of the $75,000 Grand Prizes remain outstanding.

This means that your chances of winning a Grand Prize stand at one in 200,000 as opposed to one in a million at the outset of the game.

The game itself is very horizontal in its structure. This is to say that the majority of prizes are of the small variety. This is quite different from a game like LottoMax where there is one winner and everyone else fights over scraps. Your chances in that game of winning $20 are over 80-1. In a game like More Lucky Lines your return should mirror the published information. There is one winning ticket in every 3.27 tickets sold and the overall return is 64.95%. The more tickets one buys, the more likely it is that your results will mirror those numbers. I have purchased seven tickets so far. Four of them were winners returning a total of $22. Based on the numbers, I should have expected to have 2 winners and a total of $14. The game is flattened even further by having a second prize of only $5000. Most $3 games like this one have second prizes of $25,000.

The good news is that with this sort of churn, I can continue to reinvest winnings in pursuit of those three outstanding Grand Prizes. With a chance to win of one in 200,000, and with 7 tickets purchased, my chances were one in 30,000.




But there is a problem: the tickets are very hard to find. Every store I go into tells me that the game has been cancelled. This is not true, as of today. I estimate that 19% of the tickets remain to be sold which represents over 600,000 tickets. But the OLG is not providing the sellers with any more tickets. I've asked my local sellers to ask the OLG person why they are not providing them with tickets for this game. They look at me like I'm a martian.

There are five reasons why an existing game can be canceled. Here they are:

1. Game is sold out.

2. All top prizes are claimed for games with $100,000 or greater top prizes.

3. Average weekly sales reflect significantly decreased customer demand and a new replacement game is planned.

4. Quality issue with game in market.

5. Security issue with game in market.

Experience tells me that if the OLG were to cancel this game now, only reason number 3 could apply. The wicked aspect of this is that sales are largely a function of availability. The OLG can argue that the game is no longer popular as there are no tickets being sold. It's a self fulfilling prophecy if you don't offer the tickets for sale. The conundrum is that  the OLG has sold over two million tickets for this game and they have yet to give away a Grand Prize. If you were to buy tickets to a raffle and found out later that no prize was given away, how would that sit with you?

I imagine that inside the bowels of OLG headquarters there is thinking going on that goes as follows:

1. If every ticket for this game was to be sold, the profit would be $3,303,339. 
2. As of today, 81% of the tickets have been sold (2,545,000) with an expected profit of $2,675,748. 
3. It is expected that with that volume of tickets sold, at least 2 of the 3 Grand Prizes should have been claimed. 
4. If the game is canceled today, there would be an extra $225,000 added to the profit for the game ($75,000 x 3) as those prizes would remain with the OLG.
5. The total return on the tickets not yet sold should be $630,000. But, with the 3 outstanding prizes still up for grabs, the OLG will have to pay off 3 - $75,000 winners in addition to all of the other winners. 
6. By canceling the game now and not selling the remaining tickets, the profit for the game will be increased by 10%. 

Do you see the ethical dilemma? I suspect that the OLG has a blind spot here based on what I have seen before in similar circumstances. In general, tickets begin to become scarce once 90% of the tickets have been sold. The scarcity here began when slightly more than 20% of the tickets remained.

My advice is to get out there now and try to find tickets for this game before the bean counters at OLG put their interests ahead of yours. Let me know how you make out and, as always, only play within your personal budget. The odds are always against you.


Doug

Xmas 2019 Instant Game Review

Given that we are approaching the 2019 Christmas season, I thought that I would provide an update on all of the current OLG Instant Games.

There have been some articles in the Sun this week on the OLG, it's Sunshine List employees and its executive compensation. I'll be commenting on those subjects in addition to further Instant Game updates as we approach the time when Instant Game sales reach their zenith.

Cheers.

Cost	Name	Game	Details	Recommendation
$1.00	Fiesta Treas	2152	New game.	Neutral
$1.00	Jewel Jackpot	2160	Game progressing normally.	Neutral
$2.00	Ontario Love	2161	Only 1 grand prize and 1 second prize left.	Caution
$2.00	Stock Stuff	2163	Slight edge to players.	Good
$3.00	Bingo	3027	57% of game sold; 8 of 10 grand prizes left, 1 of 7 second prices left.	Good
$3.00	More Lucky	2144	23% of game remains; all 3 grand prizes remaining, 2 of 4 second prizes left.	Best Play
$3.00	Peppermint	2167	69% of game sold; 1 of 3 grand prizes left.	Poor
$3.00	QFGCrossword	3225	37% of game remaining; 23% of grand prizes and 40% of second prizes.	Poor
$3.00	Scrabble	2080	Game has sold 12% of tickets without surrendering a grand or second prize.	Good
$3.00	Strike Spare	2158	56% of float sold; 1 of 3 grand prizes and 4 of 10 second prizes left.	Poor
$3.00	Words Friends	2146	12% of game left; all grand prizes and second prizes have been claimed.	Terrible
$4.00	Cash for Life	1175	61% of the game has been sold. A vertical game . 42% of Prizes left.	Poor
$5.00	Bingo Doubler	2138	65% of game sold; claimed prizes in line.	Neutral
$5.00	Bling	2098	67% of game sold; claimed prizes in line.	Neutral
$5.00	Chill Play	2148	40% of game sold; 6 of 10 $100k prizes left, 5 of 6 $50k prizes left.	Good
$5.00	Cross Tripler	2093	Less than 10% of game left. Tickets will be hard to find. 3 of 15 grand prizes left.	Good
$5.00	Cross Tripler	2135	New game	Neutral
$5.00	Holiday Win	2164	61% of game sold; 4 of 7 grand prizes left, both $25k second prizes left.	Poor
$5.00	Ruby 7's	2086	31% of game left; 5 of 10 grand prizes and 1 of 3 second prizes left.	Neutral
$5.00	The Big Spin	3101	75% of game remains; all 8 Grand Prizes remain.	Good
$10.00	25xMultiplier	2129	44% of game remaining; 4 of 8 $250k grand prizes left.	Poor
$10.00	Bigger Spin	2125	Game verging on being pulled; 1 of 6 grand prizes left.	Poor
$10.00	Bigger Spin	2130	Game just getting underway; all 6 grand prizes remaining.	Neutral
$10.00	Cash Out	2157	15% of game remaining; 1 of 5 $250k prizes remain.	Poor
$10.00	Cross Delux	2114	Only 6% of game remain. Tickets will be scarce. 1 of 6 grand prizes remain.	Poor
$10.00	Cross Delux	2170	86% of game remains; 88% of grand prizes remain, 1 of 2 $25k second prizes remain.	Neutral
$10.00	Instant GP	1926	New game, only 6% sold, all grand and second prizes remain.	Neutral
$10.00	Royale	2054	45% of game remaining, 8 of 10 $1m grand prizes remain, 1 of 2 $500k second prizes.	Very Good
$20.00	Celebrate 2020	2156	Only 8% of game sold but 2 of 5 grand prizes claimed and both second prizes claimed.	Terrible
$20.00	Festive Font	2169	80% of game remains, 4 of 5 $250k grand prizes remain in addition to second prize.	Neutral
$20.00	Supreme	2052	72% of game remains, 4 of 10 $2m grand prizes remain, 2 of 5 $200k second prizes.	Very poor
$30.00	Multi Million	2051	23% of game sold, 2 of 10 $2.5m prizes remain, 1 of 5 $250k second prizes.	Poor
$50.00	Classic Extra	2157	75% of game remains; 6 of 7 grand prizes of $500k left and 1 of 4 $250k second prizes.	Good

Ontario 49 - Final Report

My 10 week trial of Ontario 49 yielded a return of $62 versus an expected return of $38. Nothing to complain about but I still lost $38.

The chances of winning anything more that $10 in a 100 ticket trial is very small and I did not defy those odds. I achieved the high return by hitting 3 correct on four separate occasions. I would have expected to do so only twice.

There was an unusual event that took place during the trial. You have one chance in 14 million to win a Grand Prize of $2 million. There was about 14 million tickets sold over the course of the trial which should have produced one winner. It turned out that there were two - and both hit on the same draw. As a result, those two lucky souls had to split the $2 million.

It is quite a handy little rule as I expect that the 14 million tickets issued represented about $12 million in revenue (allowing for free ticket redemption). From that 12 million, about $6 million would have been profit. Had the OLG paid each winner $2 Million, they would have reduced their profit to $4 million. Had the two winners done so on different draws within the sample, that would have been true. So, the OLG increased its profit over the sample period by 30% by having that little innocuous rule in place.

The same rule is in place for the second prize of $50,000. In our sample period, that prize was won 4 times over twenty draws versus an expectation of 6 times. The four winners all won on separate draws. I think that making them split that prize is chintzy on behalf of the OLG. Your chances to win the $50,000 are one in 2.3 million. Not very likely and I have to split the teeny prize?


My next experiment is going to be Daily Grand. I am headed to the USA for a few days next week. I plan to blow my lottery ticket budget on Powerball tickets that week and I intend to buy a few Scratch tickets this week.

Tune back in later for an explanation of Daily Grand.


Scratch Ticket Recommendations

Recommended
$3 Bingo 3026
$4 Cash For Life 1174 (not 1175, a new version)
$5 White Diamond 2095
$20 Colos Casino 2140


Games to Avoid
$3 Cash Words 2141
$3 Poker 2134


Doug

Ontario 49 Update

I am now 8 weeks into my 10 week Ontario 49 trial. The game's biggest difference when compared to Lottario is that the Grand Prize of $2,000,000 does not increase when it is not won like Lottario does. In the latter game, the odds to win the Grand Prize are 1 in 4 million. The Grand Prize starts at $250,000 and increases the longer it goes unclaimed. Sales increase by about 40% per week as the pot increases. It never got over $750,000 during my trial. In Ontario 49, the chances of winning are 1 in 14 million. With two draws a week and a fixed prize of $2,000,000 one would think that the number of tickets sold would remain constant and that is exactly what happens. What is noticeable is that the Saturday sales are larger than the Wednesday sales by 15%. Wednesday sales are about 80,000 per draw and the Saturday sales are 92,000 on average. Given that the pot is split between all winners, I would recommend only playing the game on Wednesdays. Your chances of splitting the pot are reduced by 15% by doing so.

As expected, with ticket sales of less than 100,000 per draw, it is unlikely for the jackpot to be won for any given draw. In fact, it has not been won over the course of the 16 draws that I have played. This is not surprising. At the rate that tickets are sold I would only expect to see the jackpot won once every year and a half.

Moving down a prize level, the chances of winning the second prize are 1 in 2.3 million. With a prize of $50,000, which is a discount of the true odds by a factor of 47! Further, you have to split that unlikely prize with any other winners. Cheap! In the 16 draws of the sample period that prize has been claimed 4 times. None of those four had to split the prize.

My expected returns for this sample run is $35 from the $100 invested. Any prize of 4 or above has less a small chance to occur in a sample of 100 tickets. Barring a miracle I'm expecting to win 12 Free Plays, 1 x $3 for 2 of 6 plus the bonus, and two $10 prizes for having three correct. My method for turning the Free Plays into $1 prizes is to reduce my 5 line purchase by the number of Free Plays. In that way the Free Play becomes worth $1. I'm doing fairly well so far with 10 Free Plays, 3 - $3 prizes and 3 - $10 Prizes. That $46 return has already surpassed my expectations.


Scratch Tickets

The current recommended games are:

$3 Bingo 3028
$4 CFL 1174
$5 The Big Spin 2109
$10 250 Grand 2111

Games to avoid are:

$3 Poker 2134
$3 Sweet Cash 2076
$10 Cross Delux 2113


Back in two weeks with the final tally's of the trial.


Doug

Lottario Trial Summary

The eleventh and final week was a miss. I hit the key numbers 18 times and the Bonus number twice. The 18 main numbers produced five lines with two numbers, eight with one, and seven with no numbers. The bonus number hit one of the zeros yielding one free ticket which turned into nothing the following week.

The carry over jackpot was hit three times yielding a payoff of $241,067 which is less than one would win by hitting the jackpot without a carry-over by oneself. I wonder if being that lucky still results in cursing your luck to have to split the prize three ways?

My estimation is that the total sales for the carry-over was roughly 40% higher than when there is no carry-over. Given that Lottario is a minor game for OLG, there must be quite a few people who must be playing games only with carry-overs. That's a smart strategy.

The last annual report from the OLG explained, in part, its failure to meet its revenue targets by the fact that there were a low number of carry-over Lotto Max jackpots. When that pot grows so do the numbers of sales - exponentially. There must be lots of groups who sit on the sidelines waiting for carry-over jackpots and they make their plays only on those draws.

Trial Results

I played 222 lines in total. From that total I won $5 once, $4 - 5 times, and a free play 13 times. Twelve of those were used to reduce my cost for the next week. Therefore, my total return was $37 from $111 played or 33%.

Based upon actual odds, the expected return was 13.6 Free Plays, 4.5 lines with 3 correct ($4), and .4 lines with 3 correct plus the bonus ($5) and a .3 percent chance of winning $10 for having four correct. Nothing else had any significant chance. The total projected return was therefore $37. I came out exactly where I expected to be.

These games produce an overall lower return than scratch tickets due to the nature of the game. Any lotto game includes an oversized jackpot. If you don't win it, it is very hard to meet the expected return.

My next trial is going to be Ontario 49. I'm curious to see how it compares to Lottario.

Scratch Tickets

Recommended Games: $3 Bingo 3028, $4 Cash For Life 1174, $5 Cross Tripler 2092, $5 The Big Spin 2109.

Games to Avoid: $3 Crossword 3223, $20 Monopoly 2112.

The $20 Monopoly game is run on an interprovincial basis. 25% of the tickets remain outstanding and there are zero grand prizes left to claim. Be smart!


OLG Modernization

I am not a big fan of the Sunshine List. When it came into being only a small number of people were earning over $100,000. Nowadays teachers and police officers flood the list. The qualifying number should be increased.

Regardless, the OLG has 416 people on the list. It had 418 last year and 411 the year before. Of those people, 23 earned in excess of $200,000. I'd love to know what all these folks do. The OLG has divested itself of all its casinos and slot palaces. It has handed all of the monies going to horse racing to the Woodbine Entertainment Group, and it is trying to offload its lotto sales to a third party. What exactly will there be left for anyone to do? We know that the folks who were never going to meet Sunshine threshold were packaged off to the new casino owners who had to promise to pay its new employees the same way they had been paid. That allowed the OLG to distance itself from the bloodletting that is coming. But it appears that the high end folks are heretofore safely ensconced.

Congrats go to Stephen Rigby who finally earned more than Rod Phillips managed to pull down as the CEO at OLG. Rigby earned $765,000 which would be 2-3 times what he was paid as the President of the Canada Border Services Agency. Rod Phillips, whose career path took him from Chief of Staff for the Mayor of Toronto, to the OLG where his mentor (Paul Godfrey) circumvented the Government's edict to freeze senior provincial officials salary by awarding him an annual bonus that effectively doubled his income. Phillips then followed Godfrey to the National Post where the pair of them oversaw very painful staff reductions. Bonuses well earned no doubt. Rod is now Ontario's Minister of the Environment. His time is now spent sniping at his federal counterpart while fleshing out his plan for how Ontario is going to meet its targets for CO2 emissions. He likely earns less than half of what he earned at the helm of the OLG for doing a job that will impact all Ontarians for the next millennium. Nice to be an insider.



Doug

Lottario Trial - Week 10

A disappointing week yielded 15 hits and three bonus numbers. That produced one lonely Free Play. The good news for players was that the $440,000 Jackpot was unclaimed. This weeks jackpot is estimated to be $730,000. As a result, I am going to extend my trial by one more week or until the Grand Prize is won.

Total cash prizes won last week totalled $623,500. Further, an additional $190,000 was added to the jackpot and some $185,000 went into the coffers of the OLG. The carry over is worth a stab so I will stick around for another week.

Instant Games

Recommended games are: $2 Burger Bucks #2062, $3 Lights Camera #2088, $3 Lucky 8's #2115, $4 Cash For Life #1174, $5 Bingo Doubler #2094, $5 Cross Tripler #2092, $5 Mission Money #2067, $5 Power 5's #2085, and $5 Big Spin #2109.

Games to avoid are: $3 Scrabble #2079, and $10 Cross Deluxe #2065.

OLG Modernization

There were lots of stories this week that featured local mayors slobbering over the OLG and the cheques they received for hosting slots in their community.

Two Points: the local community is contractually obligated to hold a press conference each time it receives a cheque. They then proceed to tell us that their community would not have an arena or a park if it were not for the slots in their town. Whooey to that, I say. The second point is that the community receives approximately a nickel rebate for every dollar that is consumed by the slots.

Imagine if I gave you a dollar. In exchange I give you a nickel and you have to throw a shindig to thank me for the nickel. That's the sham that we are following. Attention local media: either ask some tough questions at these lame events or decide to cover something more meaningful.


Pretty nice outside. Will we be blessed by winter once more? I say yes.


Doug

Lottario Trial - Week 9

This week produced 18 hits which is two more that expected. On the downside, I only had the Bonus number once. Fortunately, the sole bonus landed on a line with none producing a Free Play.

The 18 correct numbers produced seven lines with one correct, four lines with two correct, and one line with 3 correct - worth $4. My total return was $5 heading into the last week of the trial. At this point I am still a few numbers below expected so I'm thinking that I'm due another good week.


Scratch Ticket Update

These are pretty good days on the scratch ticket front. The recommended games are: $2 Burger Bucks #2062, $3 Lights Camera #2088, $4 Cash For Life #1174, $5 Bingo Doubler #2094, $5 Cross Tripler #2092, $5 Mission Money #2087, $5 Power 5's #2085, $5 Big Spin #2109.

Games to avoid: $3 Scrabble #2079, #10 Bigger Spin #2124, #10 Cross Deluxe #2065. A warning to players: the largest prize left to claim in Cross Deluxe is $10,000! They're selling fools gold when it comes to this game

OLG Modernization

Here is an interesting story: http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/a-retired-couple-explain-exactly-how-they-used-math-skills-and-a-lottery-loophole-to-win-dollar26-million-in-9-years/ar-BBV413u?li=AAggFp5&ocid=UE01DHP .

Granted, this story is from the USA and not Canada but it gives you the indication that circumstances can creep up that are a benefit to players. I'll be switching to a new trial foe next week. Think I'll check to see if the OLG offers any similar games.

I was also entertaining this week when the Ontario Government announced new funding of $10 million to the thoroughbred breeding group. This same group is currently suing the Government over the distribution of slots money. I wonder if there is any connection.

People are going crazy in social media claiming that the Government cares more about race horses than it does about autistic children or class size. I'm weak on the details but will do some research and report on it next week.

Happy springtime.

Doug

Lottario Trial - Week 7&8

The last two weeks have been a tale of taking different routes to the same destination. In Week 7 I hit 21 times with three bonus numbers. That is five hits over the expected number of 16. Unfortunately, the best I could muster was 2 correct on any line which I managed to do 6 times! The only good news was that my three bonus numbers landed on 2 of the 5 lines for which I had none correct. Final result - 2 Free Plays.

In Week 8 famine struck when I only hit 10 times which matches the low for the trial. The best result was 2 correct on each of two lines. The good news is that I hit the Bonus number 7 times which yielded 3 Free Plays.

The Jackpot was hit in each week which means that it again is estimated to be $250,000 for this week. I need a little bit of luck to improve my overall results with two weeks left in the experiment.

Scratch Ticket Update

Recommended Games: $3 Lights Cameras #2088, $4 Cash For Life #1174, $5 Mission Money #2087, $5 Power 5's #2085, $5 Big Spin Win #2109.

Games to Avoid: $3 Scrabble #2079, $5 King #2084, $10 Bigger Spin #2124.


OLG News

Thanks to AJ for a couple of interesting comments left on the Lottario Week 5 Trail blog entry. Some first hand knowledge of what is going on in Wasaga Beach.

I was particularly irked this week when the OLG issued a Press Release praising itself for having been awarded the World Lottery Association's prize for the Best Overall Responsible Gaming Program. First of all, there is a word in the English language for self-congratulations and it is not complimentary. Secondly, the WLA is nothing but an association of Casino companies. It's like RJ McDonalds being awarded a prize for the best cigarette company looking into the causes of lung cancer by the association of cigarette companies!

The OLG is not alone in this type of chicanery. Casinos all across the USA and Canada spend lots of effort trying to earn social capital from operating what is a vice. I don't have a problem with casinos existing but let's be honest. Be who you are and quit trying to convince me that there is something noble in what you do.

The Medical Officer of Health for Toronto issued a report in November of 2012 that included recommendations as to what any approved casino in the GTA should include IF it truly cared about responsible gaming. Here are the recommendations:

1. Limiting hours. Close the casino 6 hours per day. 
2. Slow down machine speed. 
3. Eliminate casino loyalty programs. 
4. No ATMs on the floor. 
5. No credit or holding accounts. 
6. Reduce maximum bet size. 
7. Mandating a daily loss maximum. 
8. Implement a strong self-exclusion program. 
9. Issue monthly patron statements showing losses and details of playing history. 
10. No alcohol on the casino floor. 

Now, how many of these ideas (each of which would be effective) has the OLG and its gang of casino operators put in place? Correct! And yet they are judged to be the best in class? To quote a famous Twitter contributor, "SAD!"

Spring is coming folks.


Doug

Lottario Trial - Week 6

My bad Week 5 was followed up with a lucky Week 6. For only the second time in six weeks, I achieved the expected result of 16 numbers. The running total now is 13, 20, 13, 15, 10, 16. I had the all-important Bonus number 3 times.

With that I managed to have one line with 3 correct and a second with 3 correct plus the bonus. My total cash was $9. Yes readers, I am aware that that is still a $1 loss. Still, if I can churn at a rate of only $1 per week while trying to hit a jackpot, I can last a long time.

Also on the good news front, the Jackpot was not won again. The OLG is estimating a jackpot this week of $600,000. The OLG does a poor job of estimating the jackpot. Last week their estimate was $350,000 and it turned out to be $407,000. Working backwards, that indicates total ticket sales of 880,000. They should be able to come closer that $50,000 on that volume. Maybe they just want to be certain to never over estimate the jackpot. I can see why that might be the case.

We are now getting to a good point to play. With a chance to win of one in 4 million per line, every $1 has a one in two million chance to win. Because I buy $10 worth of tickets my chances are a robust one in 200,000. I won't be holding my breath yet but another couple of weeks of jackpot roll-over and I may have to expand my level of play.


Instant Games

A new game called Power 5's #2085 has hit the shelves. No Grand Prizes have yet to be claimed and sales are brisk. Other recommended games are: Cash For Life #1174, 5 Bingo Doubler #2094, Cross Tripler #2092, and Mission Money #208. Sadly, no $3 games are recommended at this time.

Games to avoid are: Scrabble #2079, Big Spin #2104, and Bigger Spin #2124.


OLG News

Long time contributor, Lloyd, dropped me a line saying that the construction site in Pickering looks to be a little behind schedule. When completed it will include a casino, a hotel, and restaurants.

This is the casino that the Great Canadian Gaming Company agreed to operate alongside the Slots at Ajax Downs. They are less than ten minutes from each other. Ontario's Environment Minister, Rod Phillips, former CEO at the OLG, wrote the rules stating that only one casino could operate in the area but when a frakas erupted that put the Liberals in a tough spot the same Mr Phillips rode in on his white horse to save the day. No doubt there was a financial settlement agreed to. I would love to know what it was. I'd submit a Freedom of Information request but the answer would be that the Great Canadian Gaming Company is a private corporation and outside the rules of FOI. Still, it may be worth a shot.

Best

Doug

Lottario Trial - Week 5

Well, last week was a disaster. There were five numbers that I did not have covered for the draw. I hit two of them and produced a meager total number of matches of 10. With only 10 numbers appearing I would have had a minimum of 10 lines with zero. That sets up well for free tickets except that the Bonus number was another void for me.

The result? A total wipe out.

The only good news is that the jackpot was not won. The estimated jackpot for this week has increased by $100,000 to $350,000. The OLG likes this situation as they get away with putting $100,000 into the grand prize pool instead of the $250,000 if the jackpot had been won. In this case we're all happy.

An interesting point about jackpot building with this game is that the Free Tickets count as a $1 prize for the purposes of calculating how many prizes were awarded. I see the logic but it's a little bit of a feint of hand when you consider that only one in every 5.8 of those 167,148 tickets that won last week are worth more than zero. In total, those $1 prizes will amount to less than half of the 167,148. The OLG gets to bank the rest.


Instant Games

The games are settling in a bit now. There are only three recommended games and three games to avoid. The rest are somewhere in the squishy middle. Recommended are: $4 Cash For Life 1174, $5 5 Bingo Dblr 2094 and $5 Mission Money 2087. Games to avoid are: $3 Scrabble 2079, $5 Big Spin 2104, and $10 Bigger Spin 2124.

I noticed last week that the OLG is running an ad campaign on radio. What game are they promoting? You guessed it - Big Spin. It certainly creates a good visual with the winner spinning a big wheel just like on "The Price is Right". The only problem is that there are no grand prizes to be won in two of the 4 Big Spin games currently for sale. Buyer beware is the credo.


Casino News

I note that there were protests this week in Wasaga Beach. Concerned citizens were protesting outside city hall while OLG minions were inside telling the local council all about the sugar plums that will come their way after the casino opens. There will be big checks delivered in the future. Of course, the OLG fails to mention that the local residents lose $20 in those same casinos for every dollar that comes back. From that, the local community has to pay for increased services for the poor souls with a gambling addiction and their families. There is also extra police for the increase in unsavoury people that hang out at the casino loan sharking and money laundering.

The location of the casino has also not yet been determined. Looks to me that the local residents are on to the misdirection. They want to keep the casino where the former water slide was. I'm not familiar with the layout of the town but I suspect that is not where the Casino Company nor their partner, the OLG, think it should go.


Good luck. I'm in for my usual $10 this week. All of it is new money. Grrrr.


Doug

Lottario Trial - Week 4

Lottario

Unlucky this week as I was held to one free ticket. I hit 15 of the numbers versus an expectation of 16. That should have given me at least one more free ticket but I ended up with 10 lines with one correct. I hit the bonus three times but with only six lines with none correct I was up against it a bit.

Results to date:

Zero Correct - 31
Zero plus the bonus - 5
One correct - 30
Two correct - 11
Three correct - 3

The jackpot was hit again last week keeping the top prize to $250,000. Remember: that prize is split among all winners. At 4 million to one and a maximum win of $250,000, I should be looking elsewhere but we're running an experiment, no?

Scratch Tickets

The Christmas games have been retired but there is still lots to choose from. Recommended games are: $3 Crossword 3223, $4 Cash For Life 1174, $5 Bingo Doubler 2094, $5 X Tripler 2092, $5 Mission Money 2087, and $10 Sonic Multiplier 2118.

Games to avoid are: $3 Keno 1422, $3 Scrabble 2079, $5 5 Bingo Doubler 2094, $5 The Big Spin 2104 and 2109, $10 The Bigger Spin 2124.

It's strange that the only scratch ads I have heard lately are for the Big Spin games. The grand prizes have been won for all of them yet these are the ones being flogged. Be alert to OLG manipulation!

Great Canadian Gaming Company

Interesting news last week on W5 about money laundering at BC Casinos operated by the Great Canadian Gaming Company. There is lots to be concerned about here. When this company was awarded the GTA contract there was noise about this issue. The Liberal Government of the day paused then stated that all was well and that they were satisfied. The Conservatives were strangely silent on the subject.

Subsequently, we learned that a report was being written that concluded wrongdoing was going on. It cost one brave regulator his job. Now the subject re-emerges. A morning host here in Toronto was discussing the matter last week but declined to name the company due to their "litigious" nature.

Something stinks. The GTA bundle is owned 49% by the GCGC, 49% by Brookfield, and 2% by Clairvest Investor Group. More on that consortium another time. All we need to know is that the shares in the Great Canadian Gaming Company have gone up 50% since the announcement. Lots of folks are making lots of money so no rocking of the boat, please.

Good luck for whatever you are playing this week.

Doug

Lottario Trial - Week 3

I was a little lucky and a little unlucky this week. My numbers hit 13 times, down from 20 last week. The expected result is 16. I had the Bonus number twice which is one below expectations. I had eleven lines with none correct but did not manage to convert any of those into a free ticket. Finally, I had 6 numbers five or more times. I hit none of them. On the other hand, there were five numbers I had zero times and one of them was drawn. To rub a bit of salt in the wound, the same number (35) was also part of the Early Bird draw.

The good news is that I did manage to get 3 of the 13 numbers on a single line. This returned to me $4.

My result through three weeks is therefore:

Week 1      - $10
Week 2      +$1
Week 3      -$6

Total -$15 (50%)

After a rather small sample, I am just about where I should be.

Of note was that the OLG estimated the Grand Prize this week to be around $560,000, counting the roll-over. A prize of $616,095 was claimed. That means that the OLG underestimated the number of ticket sales by 100,000. The public is either unpredictable or the OLG needs to sharpen up it's guesstimate tool.


Instant Games

We are continuing to enjoy a good period for Scratch Games. Recommended games as of today are: $3 Crossword 3223, Cash For Life 1174, 5 Bingo Doubler 2094, Cross Tripler 2092, King 2084, Mission Money 2087, Sonic Multiplier 2118.

Games to avoid are: Keno 1422, Scrabble 2079, Big Spin Win 2104 & 2109, Bigger Spin Win 2124.


Casino News

The OLG is set to make a presentation to the town of Wasaga Beach this week with their private casino colleagues, Gateway Casinos in tow. At this presentation they will tell the town council how wonderful it is to have such a great community member as a casino in their town. No doubt there will be a cloaked threat that if they turn it down then the OLG will have no choice but to approach Collingwood who would then be given the opportunity to enjoy the riches of a casino in their town.

If Wasaga Beach says yes, the question will then turn to where? No doubt the town council has an out of the way nook in town in their sights. The OLG and it's "partner" will then explain why the only viable location is on the beach. Yes, summer holidayers, nothing like a glitzy casino where your children are building sand castles.


Doug