Ontario 49 - Final Report

My 10 week trial of Ontario 49 yielded a return of $62 versus an expected return of $38. Nothing to complain about but I still lost $38.

The chances of winning anything more that $10 in a 100 ticket trial is very small and I did not defy those odds. I achieved the high return by hitting 3 correct on four separate occasions. I would have expected to do so only twice.

There was an unusual event that took place during the trial. You have one chance in 14 million to win a Grand Prize of $2 million. There was about 14 million tickets sold over the course of the trial which should have produced one winner. It turned out that there were two - and both hit on the same draw. As a result, those two lucky souls had to split the $2 million.

It is quite a handy little rule as I expect that the 14 million tickets issued represented about $12 million in revenue (allowing for free ticket redemption). From that 12 million, about $6 million would have been profit. Had the OLG paid each winner $2 Million, they would have reduced their profit to $4 million. Had the two winners done so on different draws within the sample, that would have been true. So, the OLG increased its profit over the sample period by 30% by having that little innocuous rule in place.

The same rule is in place for the second prize of $50,000. In our sample period, that prize was won 4 times over twenty draws versus an expectation of 6 times. The four winners all won on separate draws. I think that making them split that prize is chintzy on behalf of the OLG. Your chances to win the $50,000 are one in 2.3 million. Not very likely and I have to split the teeny prize?


My next experiment is going to be Daily Grand. I am headed to the USA for a few days next week. I plan to blow my lottery ticket budget on Powerball tickets that week and I intend to buy a few Scratch tickets this week.

Tune back in later for an explanation of Daily Grand.


Scratch Ticket Recommendations

Recommended
$3 Bingo 3026
$4 Cash For Life 1174 (not 1175, a new version)
$5 White Diamond 2095
$20 Colos Casino 2140


Games to Avoid
$3 Cash Words 2141
$3 Poker 2134


Doug

Ontario 49 Update

I am now 8 weeks into my 10 week Ontario 49 trial. The game's biggest difference when compared to Lottario is that the Grand Prize of $2,000,000 does not increase when it is not won like Lottario does. In the latter game, the odds to win the Grand Prize are 1 in 4 million. The Grand Prize starts at $250,000 and increases the longer it goes unclaimed. Sales increase by about 40% per week as the pot increases. It never got over $750,000 during my trial. In Ontario 49, the chances of winning are 1 in 14 million. With two draws a week and a fixed prize of $2,000,000 one would think that the number of tickets sold would remain constant and that is exactly what happens. What is noticeable is that the Saturday sales are larger than the Wednesday sales by 15%. Wednesday sales are about 80,000 per draw and the Saturday sales are 92,000 on average. Given that the pot is split between all winners, I would recommend only playing the game on Wednesdays. Your chances of splitting the pot are reduced by 15% by doing so.

As expected, with ticket sales of less than 100,000 per draw, it is unlikely for the jackpot to be won for any given draw. In fact, it has not been won over the course of the 16 draws that I have played. This is not surprising. At the rate that tickets are sold I would only expect to see the jackpot won once every year and a half.

Moving down a prize level, the chances of winning the second prize are 1 in 2.3 million. With a prize of $50,000, which is a discount of the true odds by a factor of 47! Further, you have to split that unlikely prize with any other winners. Cheap! In the 16 draws of the sample period that prize has been claimed 4 times. None of those four had to split the prize.

My expected returns for this sample run is $35 from the $100 invested. Any prize of 4 or above has less a small chance to occur in a sample of 100 tickets. Barring a miracle I'm expecting to win 12 Free Plays, 1 x $3 for 2 of 6 plus the bonus, and two $10 prizes for having three correct. My method for turning the Free Plays into $1 prizes is to reduce my 5 line purchase by the number of Free Plays. In that way the Free Play becomes worth $1. I'm doing fairly well so far with 10 Free Plays, 3 - $3 prizes and 3 - $10 Prizes. That $46 return has already surpassed my expectations.


Scratch Tickets

The current recommended games are:

$3 Bingo 3028
$4 CFL 1174
$5 The Big Spin 2109
$10 250 Grand 2111

Games to avoid are:

$3 Poker 2134
$3 Sweet Cash 2076
$10 Cross Delux 2113


Back in two weeks with the final tally's of the trial.


Doug