The fears expressed last week about the fate of Instant Millions came true this week - the game has been retired. This decision by the OLG flies in the face of fairness towards the ticket buying public.
Lets look at some numbers. The game started prior to the beginning of 2013. There are six other games still in play that began in 2012. The initial ticket float was 3,643,500 tickets. If all the tickets were sold the OLG would generate $18,217,500 in revenue and a profit of $6,071,893. At the point of retirement I estimate the number of remaining tickets to be 1,300,000 or 36% of the initial float. All things being equal (they are not), retiring the game at this point would reduce the profit to $3,800,000. After selling almost two thirds of the tickets one would expect that two of the initial three $1 Million grand prizes would have been claimed. That was not the case as two of the Grand Prizes remained outstanding. It is for this reason that it was the recommended game. By retiring the game at this point, with the two prizes outstanding, the OLG effectively increased its profit for the game from $3,800,000 to $4,800,000, an increase of 26%. Do you feel that you have been treated fairly?
A call to the OLG call center this morning (they do a great job) resulted in my being told that the game was canceled due to declining interest in the game. Declining interest? There were 1.3 million tickets left to be sold yet many retailers had no supply? How are they to sell tickets that are sitting in the OLG warehouse? This is a serious issue. Although I do not have an analogy that fits perfectly, imagine if someone ran a raffle, sold tickets, but decided not to give away the prizes. I suspect that there is a law that would deal with that type of situation. The OLG is in a position to make such decisions as they don't think that people are aware of how they manage the games nor does the ticket buying public care. Maybe they're right.
Of the 25 games that have been retired by the OLG in 2013, only three others had as many as 30% of their ticket float outstanding. Each one of those was a Christmas game (Snow Globe, Wonderful Life, Holiday Tripler). They were all retired at the end of February, once the Christmas season was well over. Lastly, this is not the first time the OLG has acted this way. Ontario Instant Millions #1573 was a game that ran during 2011. It was a game similar to the current Instant Millions. For that game, the OLG sold 2,026,608 tickets ($10,133,040) and paid out 389,769 prizes totaling $4,497,600. Guess how many of the three $1 million Grand Prizes were won? None! That's right - the OLG ran a raffle and failed to award even a single Grand Prize. The above information was provided as a result of a Freedom of Information request.
I would be interested to hear from readers what sort of changes they would propose to the OLG to correct this situation. Before one complains one has to have a solution to propose.
As for our new game, Wild 10s is a $10 game that began with 150 - $10,000 Grand Prizes. One hundred and twenty-two remain to be claimed after selling 31% of the tickets. Your chances of winning a $10,000 prize has dropped from 1 in 9007 to 1 in 7,600 at this point in time. The game is not the best of games in terms of your pure chances to win any prize and to win a prize greater than the cost of the ticket. The Grand Prize is $10,000 is also small for a $10 game. If it's the big reward you're after, the $200 Million game is second rated and there are nine $2 Million prizes out there to be claimed. That's if you have the stomach to spend $20 on an Instant Ticket.
Note:
Readers may notice that the more expensive games tend to be the best rated games. This is generally true as the OLG takes a smaller percentage cut from those games and they tend towards larger Grand Prizes. Any game appearing on the above lists would represent a good decision for the player. The point of this blog is to guide players away from bad choices such as listed below.
$100,000 Poker Multiplier was introduced this week. It is a $5 game. The prize distribution is as follows, in terms of percentage of total sales revenue:
The game rates well on the rating system and may become playable in time.
Strange, but after railing against the retirement of Instant Millions, it's not my favourite game. Seven tickets this week returned two "winners" each of $5. My cash rate is now down to 38% and my total return on investment has dipped to 81%.
My thanks to the folks who have messaged me lately about the blog. I enjoy hearing from you.
I need some luck.
Doug
Lets look at some numbers. The game started prior to the beginning of 2013. There are six other games still in play that began in 2012. The initial ticket float was 3,643,500 tickets. If all the tickets were sold the OLG would generate $18,217,500 in revenue and a profit of $6,071,893. At the point of retirement I estimate the number of remaining tickets to be 1,300,000 or 36% of the initial float. All things being equal (they are not), retiring the game at this point would reduce the profit to $3,800,000. After selling almost two thirds of the tickets one would expect that two of the initial three $1 Million grand prizes would have been claimed. That was not the case as two of the Grand Prizes remained outstanding. It is for this reason that it was the recommended game. By retiring the game at this point, with the two prizes outstanding, the OLG effectively increased its profit for the game from $3,800,000 to $4,800,000, an increase of 26%. Do you feel that you have been treated fairly?
A call to the OLG call center this morning (they do a great job) resulted in my being told that the game was canceled due to declining interest in the game. Declining interest? There were 1.3 million tickets left to be sold yet many retailers had no supply? How are they to sell tickets that are sitting in the OLG warehouse? This is a serious issue. Although I do not have an analogy that fits perfectly, imagine if someone ran a raffle, sold tickets, but decided not to give away the prizes. I suspect that there is a law that would deal with that type of situation. The OLG is in a position to make such decisions as they don't think that people are aware of how they manage the games nor does the ticket buying public care. Maybe they're right.
Of the 25 games that have been retired by the OLG in 2013, only three others had as many as 30% of their ticket float outstanding. Each one of those was a Christmas game (Snow Globe, Wonderful Life, Holiday Tripler). They were all retired at the end of February, once the Christmas season was well over. Lastly, this is not the first time the OLG has acted this way. Ontario Instant Millions #1573 was a game that ran during 2011. It was a game similar to the current Instant Millions. For that game, the OLG sold 2,026,608 tickets ($10,133,040) and paid out 389,769 prizes totaling $4,497,600. Guess how many of the three $1 million Grand Prizes were won? None! That's right - the OLG ran a raffle and failed to award even a single Grand Prize. The above information was provided as a result of a Freedom of Information request.
I would be interested to hear from readers what sort of changes they would propose to the OLG to correct this situation. Before one complains one has to have a solution to propose.
As for our new game, Wild 10s is a $10 game that began with 150 - $10,000 Grand Prizes. One hundred and twenty-two remain to be claimed after selling 31% of the tickets. Your chances of winning a $10,000 prize has dropped from 1 in 9007 to 1 in 7,600 at this point in time. The game is not the best of games in terms of your pure chances to win any prize and to win a prize greater than the cost of the ticket. The Grand Prize is $10,000 is also small for a $10 game. If it's the big reward you're after, the $200 Million game is second rated and there are nine $2 Million prizes out there to be claimed. That's if you have the stomach to spend $20 on an Instant Ticket.
Best Overall Rated Games
- Wild 10s
- $200 Million
- Pick 3
- Extravaganza
- Texas Hold'em
Best Games to Win the Grand Prize
- $1 - $2 Games - Pick 3
- $3 Games - Texas Hold'Em
- $4 - $5 Games - Cleopatra
- $10 - $20 Games - Wild 10s
Note:
Readers may notice that the more expensive games tend to be the best rated games. This is generally true as the OLG takes a smaller percentage cut from those games and they tend towards larger Grand Prizes. Any game appearing on the above lists would represent a good decision for the player. The point of this blog is to guide players away from bad choices such as listed below.
Games to Avoid
- Tetris
- CFL Blowout
- Bejeweled
Comings and Goings
Three games were retired this week. The aforementioned Instant Millions, Scrabble #1730, and Mahjong #1731. The Scrabble game had 6% of its float left and one Grand Prize Outstanding of $75,000. Mahjong had 17% of its float and one Grand Prize of $80,000. Mahjong had two Grand Prize winners. They hailed from North York and Oshawa.$100,000 Poker Multiplier was introduced this week. It is a $5 game. The prize distribution is as follows, in terms of percentage of total sales revenue:
- Grand Prizes (6) - 4.7%
- Prizes of $1000 or more and less than the Grand Prize - 2.1%
- Prizes of $100 or more and less than $1000 - 1.8%
- Prizes greater than the ticket cost and less than $100 - 49.0%
- Prizes of the cost of the ticket - 9.3%
- Profit - 33.1%
The game rates well on the rating system and may become playable in time.
Personal Play
Strange, but after railing against the retirement of Instant Millions, it's not my favourite game. Seven tickets this week returned two "winners" each of $5. My cash rate is now down to 38% and my total return on investment has dipped to 81%.
My thanks to the folks who have messaged me lately about the blog. I enjoy hearing from you.
I need some luck.
Doug
