Texas Hold'Em Reaches the Top Spot

I have tweaked my evaluation method to include a factor for the imbalance between the chances of winning a Grand Prize at the outset of the game and the current chances. The goal is to identify games where the odds are tilting towards today's player. The rating system is now the product of the current Grand Prize imbalance and the old game evaluation method. I'll write more about this another time.

Based on the new method, Texas Hold'Em is the new top rated game. This game currently has 1 Grand Prize left and 15% of its float left to sell. The game started with 3 Grand Prizes of $75,000. As of today, $.063 of remaining revenue will go to the lucky purchaser of the outstanding Grand Prize. This is fifth best of the current games. The current imbalance for the remaining Grand Prize is second only to Silver Gold.

Wild 10s continues to be well rated. This game, along with Fast 200s, is based upon a greater number of Grand Prizes of lesser value relative to the cost of the ticket. For this reason it is much more unlikely that an imbalance of outstanding Grand Prizes will be created as sales for the game continues.

Top Rated Games

1. Texas Hold'Em
2. Silver Gold
3. Wild 10s
4. Prestige
5. Cleopatra

Worst Games

1. Bingo #3008
2. Bonus Keno #1413
3. Keno #1410
4. Poker Multiplier
5. Cross Express

Note - There are currently no games for sale for which all of the Grand Prizes have been claimed. If you like Bingo, be careful to buy game #3009 and not #3008.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Silver Gold is a good play with 2 of its 4 initial Grand Prizes currently outstanding and only 20% of its tickets left to sell. Fast 200s provides $.125 of total remaining revenue to the Grand Prize winners. That is the best number of any game currently offered for sale.

$3 Game Update

Texas Hold'Em is the top rated game. Scrabble #1754 is also a good choice.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Cleopatra has 2 outstanding Grand Prizes of $100,000 from the 7 original prizes included in the game. An estimated 18% of its float remains to be sold.

$10 - $20 Games

Wild 10s and Prestige are both playable games. One has 29 - $10,000 Grand Prizes left while the other has 12 - $1,000,000 outstanding. Seems a clear choice for the latter game (Prestige), no? Well, there are an estimated 260,000 Wild 10 tickets left to be sold whereas there are over 14 million Prestige tickets left to be sold. It comes down to personal preference.

Comings and Goings

A new Crossword game was introduced this week (#3203). There are now two Crossword games on the market. I recommend the earlier game (#3200). It has 5 of its 16 Grand Prizes left to be claimed after selling 80% of its tickets. The two games are otherwise very similar in terms of prize distribution.

Personal Play

I offer my thanks to readers who have posted comments to the blog of their experiences. Their opinions of the games vary wildly and all are valid. Trinitron had good success with Wild 10s while Bo Booboo calls the game "useless". I tip my hat to players who are checking the OLG website and making conscious decisions as to what games they are playing. That is what this blog is about.

I played 4 Prestige tickets last week. Two were winners returning $30. As a result, my year-to-date stats barely budged.

I included a tease in last week's blog concerning very good news for a reader. Well, given that this entry simply catches me up to date and is already filled with information, I'm going to ask you to wait until next week where I can give the news the headline treatment it merits.


Doug

Wild 10s Getting Long in the Tooth But Remains the Choice

After more than two weeks since the last update, Wild 10s has retained its top spot. With 34 Grand Prizes left to claim, your chances to win one are one in 8,200 while your chances to win $100 or more are one in 330. Both of these numbers are currently the best available. The downside of the game is that an estimated 20% of the float remains to be sold and readers of this blog have been reporting that the tickets are scarce in their respective part of the province. That is certainly the case in Ottawa.

Prestige is a new game that looks like it may become the heir apparent to Wild 10s. More about the game follows below. This game has $12 million available to Grand Prize winners from 15 million tickets. By comparison, Wild 10s presently has $340,000 left in Grand Prizes from 280,000 tickets.

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Wild 10s
2. Prestige
3. $200 Million
4. Fast 200s
5. Extravaganza

Games to Avoid

• None.

*Kudos to the OLG for finally getting rid of QFG Crossword. They milked that game for all it was worth well after the Grand Prizes had all been claimed.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Fast 200's is a good game in this area. The maximum prize is only $200 but there are over 3,000 of them to be won.

$3 Game Update

Scrabble #1754 is the best choice in this group. Texas Hold'Em is a good second choice.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Cleopatra remains the best choice although every game in this group is OK with the sole exception of Poker Multiplier.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Classic White is the poorest game in this area and for some reason my local retailer is always suggesting that I buy those tickets. Did you get a memo from OLG Headquarters?

Comings and Goings

QFC Crossword and Cash Cow were both retired over the past two weeks. QFG Crossword had been devoid of Grand Prizes since mid-June and 95% of the float was ultimately sold. Contrast that to Instant Millions that was retired some time ago and you can see that the OLG is inconsistent in its decision making about how long games remain on the market. Cash Cow had 2 of its 5 Grand Prizes left to be sold and 22% of its float left to be sold. It was pushed aside for Cross Express but what about those two unclaimed prizes?

Two new games were introduced recently. Horseshoes is a $3 game with the usual prize distribution for $3 games. The 3- $75,000 Grand Prizes represent 2.9% of the revenue. The available prizes for less than $75,000 and at least $100 are lower than average with a higher level of $3 winners in exchange. Overall, it does not compare favourably with other $3 games, at least not at this point in time.

The $10 Prestige game is another Interprovincial Game. Its prize distribution is good. The 12 - $1 million prizes represent 8.2% of the revenue and your chances to win any prize are 1 in 3.28 tickets which is second only to $200 million in the high end group. The number of tickets worth the $10 cost of the ticket is relatively low  at 9.6% of total revenue. Wild 10s, by comparison, returns 12% of its revenue to $10 winners. A reader who jumped on Prestige early bought 11 tickets winning only $20. Not a good initial endorsement.

Personal Play

Thanks to the scarcity of Wild 10s, I purchased 3 - $200 Million tickets. They contained 1 - $20 winner. While stopping for gas I extended my budget when the seller had 2- Wild 10s left to sell. They were both winners returning $45.

I'm now sitting at 72% Return on Investment and a 39% cash rate.

There was lots to talk about this week after my absence but I have some very exciting news to share with you in the next update. It is the kind of news that provides players everywhere with first hand hope. Stay tuned for the Friday update.

Doug

Wild 10s Still the Preferred Choice

Wild 10s improved its position over the past week during which time 60,000 tickets were sold and only 3 of the $10,000 Grand Prizes were claimed. Your chance to win one dropped from 7,700:1 to 7,200:1. The second rated game, Double Cash For Life, sadly surrendered one of its 4 Grand prizes after only exhausting 5% of its ticket float. Players need to remember that when buying a Cash For Life ticket, make sure that it is Game 1162 and not game 1159. The former is a good choice, the latter is a bomb.

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Wild 10s
2. Cash For Life 1162
3. $200 Million
4. Pick 3
5. Texas Hold'Em

Games to Avoid

• Quest For Gold Crossword
• Tetris
• Cash For Life 1159

$1 - $2 Game Update

Pick 3 continues as a good choice in this category. For those looking for a bigger Grand Prize than is offered with Pick 3, try Silver Gold.

$3 Game Update

Texas Hold'Em continues to get stronger in this group. It is substantially better than any other $3 game, at the moment. Two $75,000 Grand Prizes are left to be claimed.

$4 - $5 Games

Double Cash For Life continues to rate high based upon the three remaining large Grand Prizes. Even though one was lost last week, the game remains a good choice.

$10 - $20 Games

If the small but plentiful $10,000 prize does not motivate you to invest $10 in a game, the $200 Million game is also a good one. Neither of Classic White nor Extravaganza are bad plays, but the other two are better choices.

Comings and Goings

$3 Scrabble 1754 was added this week. This is a game with a float of 3,141,600 tickets that includes 3 - $75,000 Grand Prizes. The prize distribution looks good:
Grand Prize - 2.4%
Prizes less than Grand Prize and at least $100 - 3.4%
Prizes more than the cost of the tickets and less than $100 - 46.3%
Prizes worth the cost of the ticket - 12.9%
Profit - 35.1%

More Lucky #1733 and Bonus Banco #1641 were both retired. Bonus Banco was one of only four games that were initiated in 2012. The game still had 45% of its float left including 1 of the 6 -  $50,000 grand prizes. It was a poor game to play and I am thus pleased to see it go. More Lucky continued to be not a bad choice with 1 of its 3 - $75,000 Grand Prizes left to be claimed and 19% of its ticket float left when it was terminated.

The Grand Prize winners for the two retired games hailed from: North York (1 for each game), St Albert, Port Elgin, Scarborough, and Etobicoke.

Personal Play

My bad luck continues. I made a personal error this week when my usual store was sold out of Wild 10s when I arrived. Instead, I picked up four at a magazine stand in a shopping mall. I don't like doing that and I paid the price when I was shut out. Frank in Scarborough had terrible luck at a magazine store in the Scarborough Town Center.I should have learned my lesson from him. My cash rate is now 37% and my Return on Investment has now slipped to 75%.

Thanks to readers who have messaged me about their individual playing styles. One reader was ahead on $200 Million after having bought 16 tickets! I like to hear that.

I also received a message asking how I know how many tickets have been sold. The answer to the question is that I don't - I estimate the number based upon the numbers that the OLG publishes on the Outstanding Prize information sheet.

I need some luck and Independence Day seems as good as any day for me to turn things around.

Doug

Wild 10s - For The Time Being

Wild 10s surrendered ten of its Grand Prize winners last week while selling 50,000 tickets. There are 77 Grand prizes left to be claimed and 594,000 tickets left to sell. Your chances to win one are one in 7,700.

I have been thrown a curve ball by the OLG. Every time I devise a mathematical system to determine what the best game is to play, they come out with a game that exploits my method. This time it is Double Cash For Life. The game only began this week but it already computes as a top game. Further explanation to follow.

I am considering tweaking my system. Before doing so, I'd be interested to hear from any readers as to what you look for in a game. I know what a bad game looks like but the best game can be difficult to define - different tastes and all. Do you want large Grand Prizes, many Grand Prizes, lots of middle prizes, lots of smaller prizes, most winning tickets? For me, the Grand Prize is important but if that was all, I should be buying 649 tickets where a large part of every draw goes to the winner. Other winners fight over the scraps. Instant Games are more democratic and ostensibly more fun to play. So drop me a line, I'd be interested to hear of personal preferences.

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Wild 10s
2. Double Cash For Life - 1162
3. $200 Million
4. Pick 3
5. Cleopatra

Games to Avoid

• Quest for Gold Crossword
• Tetris
• Cash for Life - 1159

Note: Be very careful with the Cash for Life games. Game #1162 is new and a good choice. Game #1159 has no Grand Prizes left! Check with the retailer if you get to the store and forget which is which. Or you can check on your mobile at www.scratchodds.com .

$1 - $2 Game Update

Pick 3 continues to be a good game. If you don't like the tiny $500 Grand Prize, then $2 Silver Gold is the next best game in this group.

$3 Game Update

Texas Hold'Em is the best pick in this area. Your odds to win one of the two remaining $75,000 Grand Prizes are 1:390,000, down from 1:852,000 when the game began.

$4 - $5 Games

Double Cash For Life springs from the gate as a good choice here. Of the games that have been selling for some time, Cleopatra or Jacks are Wild are both good games.

$10 - $20 Games

Putting Wild 10s to the side, $200 Million still has seven $2 Million Grand Prizes to be claimed. Sales of this game are poor. The OLG (this is actually an inter-provincial game) are learning that we Canadians have trouble slapping down $20 for a ticket.

Comings and Goings

Each game available for sale has its own particular character. Double Cash for Life was introduced this week. It is a game that is rich on the top end with 4 Grand Prizes of $2000/week for life and at the bottom end where there are many prizes of $4, $6, $8, $10, and $12. The prize distribution for anything else is very poor. So if you're hoping to snag a middling prize, chances are that you will be disappointed. Here is the prize distribution. I have indicated the same percentage breakdown for last week's new game (20X Lucky) in parentheses.

Grand Prize - 14.7% (4.3%)
Prizes between $100 and the Grand Prize - .9% (2.4%)
Prizes Greater than Ticket Cost and <$100 - 40.4% (51.1%)
Prizes for the Cost of the Ticket - 9.8% (9.2%)
OLG Profit - 30.2% (33%)

You will note that the percentages do not tally up for Cash for Life. I suspect that there is an error on the detail sheet and that the OLG profit percentage should be higher. That number is higher the cheaper the game but this game is listed with a player return rate equivalent to $10 and $20 Games.

We say good bye this week to the venerable Bejeweled. This was the recommended game for several weeks this year. During that time I purchased 31 tickets, cashed 14 of them for a total of $300. Not bad. The OLG sold this game longer than it should have, according to their own policies, but I'm going to assume that they had a defensible reason for doing so.

Personal Play

Four Wild 10s tickets contained one winner for the grand total of $10. Grrrr. I guess it is better than being shut out, but not much better. I now stand at a cash rate of 38% and a total Return on Investment of 78%. I'm trending down and need a boost soon.

Happy Canada Day to all.

Doug

Wild 10s Emerges as Top Choice After Instant Millions is Retired

The fears expressed last week about the fate of Instant Millions came true this week - the game has been retired. This decision by the OLG flies in the face of fairness towards the ticket buying public.

Lets look at some numbers. The game started prior to the beginning of 2013. There are six other games still in play that began in 2012. The initial ticket float was 3,643,500 tickets. If all the tickets were sold the OLG would generate $18,217,500 in revenue and a profit of $6,071,893. At the point of retirement I estimate the number of remaining tickets to be 1,300,000 or 36% of the initial float. All things being equal (they are not), retiring the game at this point would reduce the profit to $3,800,000. After selling almost two thirds of the tickets one would expect that two of the initial three $1 Million grand prizes would have been claimed. That was not the case as two of the Grand Prizes remained outstanding. It is for this reason that it was the recommended game. By retiring the game at this point, with the two prizes outstanding, the OLG effectively increased its profit for the game from $3,800,000 to $4,800,000, an increase of 26%. Do you feel that you have been treated fairly?

A call to the OLG call center this morning (they do a great job) resulted in my being told that the game was  canceled due to declining interest in the game. Declining interest? There were 1.3 million tickets left to be sold yet many retailers had no supply? How are they to sell tickets that are sitting in the OLG warehouse? This is a serious issue. Although I do not have an analogy that fits perfectly, imagine if someone ran a raffle, sold tickets, but decided not to give away the prizes. I suspect that there is a law that would deal with that type of situation. The OLG is in a position to make such decisions as they don't think that people are aware of how they manage the games nor does the ticket buying public care. Maybe they're right.

Of the 25 games that have been retired by the OLG in 2013, only three others had as many as 30% of their ticket float outstanding. Each one of those was a Christmas game (Snow Globe, Wonderful Life, Holiday Tripler). They were all retired at the end of February, once the Christmas season was well over. Lastly, this is not the first time the OLG has acted this way. Ontario Instant Millions #1573 was a game that ran during 2011. It was a game similar to the current Instant Millions. For that game, the OLG sold 2,026,608 tickets ($10,133,040) and paid out 389,769 prizes totaling $4,497,600. Guess how many of the three $1 million Grand Prizes were won? None! That's right - the OLG ran a raffle and failed to award even a single Grand Prize. The above information was provided as a result of a Freedom of Information request.

I would be interested to hear from readers what sort of changes they would propose to the OLG to correct this situation. Before one complains one has to have a solution to propose.

As for our new game, Wild 10s is a $10 game that began with 150 - $10,000 Grand Prizes. One hundred and twenty-two remain to be claimed after selling 31% of the tickets. Your chances of winning a $10,000 prize has dropped from 1 in 9007 to 1 in 7,600 at this point in time. The game is not the best of games in terms of your pure chances to win any prize and to win a prize greater than the cost of the ticket. The Grand Prize is $10,000 is also small for a $10 game. If it's the big reward you're after, the $200 Million game is second rated and there are nine $2 Million prizes out there to be claimed. That's if you have the stomach to spend $20 on an Instant Ticket.

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Wild 10s
2. $200 Million
3. Pick 3
4. Extravaganza
5. Texas Hold'em

Best Games to Win the Grand Prize

• $1 - $2 Games - Pick 3
• $3 Games - Texas Hold'Em
• $4 - $5 Games - Cleopatra
• $10 - $20 Games - Wild 10s

Note:
Readers may notice that the more expensive games tend to be the best rated games. This is generally true as the OLG takes a smaller percentage cut from those games and they tend towards larger Grand Prizes. Any game appearing on the above lists would represent a good decision for the player. The point of this blog is to guide players away from bad choices such as listed below.

Games to Avoid

• Tetris
• CFL Blowout
• Bejeweled

Comings and Goings

Three games were retired this week. The aforementioned Instant Millions, Scrabble #1730, and Mahjong #1731. The Scrabble game had 6% of its float left and one Grand Prize Outstanding of $75,000. Mahjong had 17% of its float and one Grand Prize of $80,000. Mahjong had two Grand Prize winners. They hailed from North York and Oshawa.

$100,000 Poker Multiplier was introduced this week. It is a $5 game. The prize distribution is as follows, in terms of percentage of total sales revenue:

• Grand Prizes (6) - 4.7%
• Prizes of $1000 or more and less than the Grand Prize - 2.1%
• Prizes of $100 or more and less than $1000 - 1.8%
• Prizes greater than the ticket cost and less than $100 - 49.0%
• Prizes of the cost of the ticket - 9.3%
• Profit - 33.1%

The game rates well on the rating system and may become playable in time.

Personal Play

Strange, but after railing against the retirement of Instant Millions, it's not my favourite game. Seven tickets this week returned two "winners" each of $5. My cash rate is now down to 38% and my total return on investment has dipped to 81%.

My thanks to the folks who have messaged me lately about the blog. I enjoy hearing from you.

I need some luck.


Doug