Cash For Life #1167 - Where Are You?

Another 34,000 tickets burned through this past week. Eighty-nine of the original 1174 Top Prize tickets remain outstanding but those 89 tickets represent 29% of all the money associated with the 1174 Top Prize tickets. Of the money available for Top Prizes, 95% is represented by that one lonely outstanding Grand Prize. The game will be deleted from the outstanding prize list on February 8th. Tic-toc.

I use a measure of standard deviation in my rating formula. Statistically, 68% of a population should be within one standard deviation of a mean. For my ratings, 23 of the 29 active games fall within that measure. My rating on CFL 1167 is almost 8 standard deviations from the mean. 99.7% of all measures will be within 3 standard deviations! This game is a significant outlier.

Now, I know that all of this falls upon one ticket. Finding it is less likely that finding a needle in a proverbial haystack. The OLG is the most likely winner of the prize at this point in time but if you can find any loose tickets at your seller, scoop them up.

 

Top Rated Games

1. $4 Cash For Life #1167 - Going, going.....
2. $3 Crossword #3210 - Excellent 2nd choice but it's sister game is more prevalent. 
3. $3 Scrabble #1861 - Significant imbalance in available Top Prize $ with available tickets.
4. $3 Frosty #1864 - Well rounded choice.
5. $5 Merry Money #1863 - 2 of 3 Grand Prizes remain and 18% of float

Games to Avoid

1. $2 Polar Bear #1862 - lowest % of Top Prize $ versus Top Prize tickets.
2. $30 250 Golden #1782 - Gotta fix the rating on this game. It's not as bad as it looks. 
3. $1 Red Hot 50's #1827 - Not worth a buck.
4. $1 Hit 100 #1849 - sales are slow and should be. 
5. $10 Classic White #1844 - lost last GP. Only 1 prize left greater than $1000. BEWARE!

Games Devoid Of Grand Prizes

• Polar Bear
• Classic White
• More Lucky Lines

Comings and Goings

Nothing to report.

Personal Play

Nothing to report.

Post Script

Grand Prizes were claimed this past week for Bingo #3019, Classic White, and Diamond. The total number tickets available for sale is 94 million which is about where the OLG wants to keep things.

Interesting comment from Bee Gee this week that he/she asked his/her seller to call the OLG and reactivate a package of de-activated CFL tickets. They did so! I'm surprised by that but I learn things on this blog all the time. In the same vein, we learned this week that each Provincial Lottery Corporation has the individual right to de-activate Interprovincial Games at different times. I still can't get my head around that one.

I was impressed by Dan's post last week of his detailed results. He achieved a return of 99% on his total investment. That is pretty darned good.

Shelley asked about folks experience with www.playolg.ca . I'm also curious about that. Please share if you've been to the site.

This week's story comes from "Inside Belleville" http://www.insidebelleville.com/news-story/6248174-belleville-closes-in-on-casino-deal-300-jobs-expected/ . The Great Canadian Gaming Corporation (awarded the Eastern Gaming bundle) and Belleville City council are involved in a love fest. The article fails to mention that Kingston refused to have a casino built in their location. Belleville was the second choice. I wonder why?

Keep that el-nino coming.


Doug

Cash For Life #1167 Sits Firmly on Top

The $2 off tickets are being cashed en mass as the game of choice sold almost 400,000 tickets last week but the sole remaining Grand Prize is still outstanding. Oddly, your chances to win the Grand Prize are almost identical to the new version of the game issued this week at 1.5 million to one. Why then am I recommending the earlier version? Well, the older version has a small prize ( < $100) return rate of 57.1% whereas the new game's comparable rate is 53.3%. Further, the odds against winning a top prize of any description are 1 in 6,933 for the old game versus 1 in 46,310 for the new game. Yes, those 10 Grand Prizes look juicy but don't be deceived. The old game still has 19% of its float left (+/- 1%) and thus should be readily available.

 

Top Rated Games

1. $4 Cash For Life #1171 - Cash in those $2 off coupons.
2. $3 Cashingo #1847 - positive top prize ratio of 1.29
3. $3 Crossword #3210 - nice to see a staple game rated highly
4. $5 Wild Card #1854 - lost a Grand Prize last week but still hangs around
5. $10 Diamond #1781 - after a long drought, a $10 game returns. No thanks to New Liskeard!

Games to Avoid

1. $3 More Lucky Lines #1829 - fie on this game
2. $2 Golden Seven's #1824 - poor on all measures
3. $3 Bingo #3016 - terrible top prize money ratio
4. $1 Lucky Lines #1826 - poor sister to the worst game
5. $5 Cross Tripler #1830 - be careful of this popular $5 game

Games to Play If You Only Want A Grand Prize

1. Cash For Life #1167
2. Cash For Life #1171
3. Spectacular #1865
4. Diamond #1781
5. Extreme #1780

Games Devoid Of Grand Prizes

• $3 More Lucky Lines

Best Games With Lots of Small Grand Prizes

1. 500 Frenzy
2. Fast 200's
3. Red Hot 50's

Comings and Goings

Lots of activity this week with two games deleted and three new ones added.

The terrible 10X The Money was mercifully deleted along with Aces and 8's which was popular in some corners but I never cottoned to it.

New on the scene is a new Crossword game which should be avoided as long as its concurrent sister version is still on sale. A new Cash For Life with 10 Grand Prizes is on the scene but, again, I prefer the older version. An odd aspect of the game is that the game sheet claims that 67.76% of the revenue is returned to players but when one adds up all the prizes on the game sheet it comes out to 64.9%. Is that $2 off coupon sticking its nose in this game too?

Lastly, the much anticipated $30 - $250 Golden Treasures came on line. I have never seen a game quite like it. Only 28.9% of the revenue is returned to winners of less than $100. Of course, a $100 win is the same as a $10 win for a $3 game. There's lots of money to be won but the comments from posters indicate that this community is not going to be a big consumer of the game unless spouses are picking them up for Christmas presents. I'll be tracking sales closely on the game. $30 is a lot for a scratch ticket.

Personal Play

Nothing to report.

Post Script

Thanks to Randy who's research skills determined that one of the frequent Pro-Line winners was also previously convicted of possession of $150,000 of marijuana. I'm guessing that represents more than personal use.

From the file of "Anything that can happen, will happen" we have this story from California:
http://or-politics.com/u-s-world/lucky-guy-man-wins-the-lottery-twice-in-one-hour/204285/ .

And here is a mess of a story: http://www.guelphmercury.com/sports-story/6156476-province-trots-out-online-horse-themed-gambling-product/ . Now, understand that the OLG had the welfare of the horse racing industry rammed down its gullet but this is very lame. They hired a new vice-president, Cal Bricker, who was recruited from a waste management company. He's in charge of the horse racing file? And their first volley is a slot machine for which "It is unknown whether the horse-racing industry will get a cut of the gaming revenue from Fire Horse or will only stand to gain from additional exposure and the link to bet on the races." 

Good lord! I have some news for Mr. Bricker - horse racing has been going on in Ontario since before confederation. Ontarians do not need a web page on the insidious www.playolg.ca site to "introduce" them to horse racing. How insulting.

I have an idea for Cal. Google the "Irish Sweepstakes" if you want an idea as to how lottery gaming and horse racing can be linked. Everything old is new again.

I will be here and there for the next couple of weeks and may miss an update. If that happens, I'll still be reading your posts so keep them coming.


Doug

Cash for Life Family #1165 - A Rare Opportunity

This is getting ridiculous. The game of choice sold 300,000 of the estimated 1.3 million remaining tickets last week without revealing a winner. There remains 1 million tickets containing two Grand Prizes. The game has achieved the highest rating of any game since I began measuring these games. I should point out that the game has been hollowed out a bit. The second place prize of $50,000 and the third place prize of $10,000 have both been claimed. There remains one $5000 prize and one $500 prize before dipping down to the $120 prizes but those two $675,000 prizes are juicy and waiting to be claimed. How good would it be if a reader of this blog was to snag one? A point of caution is that the game is getting to the point where tickets may become hard to find. I am beginning to have to shop around for mine. Still, it's worth the effort. Something has to break soon. And if the OLG has the temerity to retire the game I'll be launching an all out offensive on them. I've invested too much in this game to watch them claim the Grand Prizes.

Top Rated Games

1. $4 Cash for Life 1165 (15% of float remaining, +/- 4%)
2. $3 Scrabble 1777 (8%, +/- 3%)
3. $5 Money Multiplier 1769 (28%, +/- 2%)
4. $20 Extraordinary 1742 (92%, +/- 4%)
5. $1 Red Hot 50s 1788 (41%, +/- 1%)

Games to Avoid

1. $3 Tetris 1793
2. $2 Fat Cat 1729
3. $3 More Lucky Lines 1775
4. $3 QFG Crossword 3204
5. $3 Crossword 3205

Note that the top three of the worst games are double whammy's with both all of their Grand Prizes and Second Prizes claimed. Come on OLG! Give us a break.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Red Hot 50s is the best choice here. Blazing 7's is the next best.

$3 Game Update

Scrabble 1777 is the best choice by far. You may have trouble finding any. Next best is More Lucky Lines 1776 (not 1775).

$4 - $5 Game Update

Our game of choice is the best rated game since this blog began.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Extraordinary, Prestige, and Turbo Cash are all reasonable choices.

Comings and Goings

Two new games came on line this past week. The first is a new version of Cashingo. It is a good looking $3 game with a higher than usual 3.2% of total revenue being returned to the 4 - $75,000 Grand Prize winners.

The second game is Cadillac Riches. Some comments were left on last weeks blog entry about the game. It is an inter-provincial game with a couple of twists. Ontario will receive 4 million of the 6.5 million ticket float. Interestingly, neither Quebec nor Atlantic Canada will participate. I wonder what the story is there?

The game has 5 Cadillac Escalades as second prizes (or $100,000) and 5 Cadillac Coupes as third prizes (or $47,500). There is also an on-line contest for one Cadillac. According to the game sheet no purchase is necessary to enter but you have to enter a code that is on the ticket. Not sure how one does that without buying a ticket but I'm sure that is the case. You can enter up to 50 times a day. While it is true that I spend time writing this blog, I've got better things to do than enter on on-line contest 50 times a day! The game has an unusually low percentage of revenue returned to the Grand Prize winners. In exchange, the prize totals for $100 or more (but less than the grand prize) is very high.

Personal Play

Not good. Ten Cash for Life tickets contained three winners totaling $16. I'm due!

Meanderings

I encourage readers to check Vic's comments of his visit to Casino Lac Leamy in Gatineau. How do you people win money on the slots? I never win with those inventions of the devil. Hats off to those who do.


Today is the 70th anniversary of D-Day. Powerful ceremonies in France.


Doug

$4 Cash for Life #1165 is a Dominant Choice

Another week ticked by without a Grand Prize being revealed in the Cash for Life Family $4 game. Your chances to win either $1000/wk for life or $675,000 is now estimated at 675,000:1 and this with a game that returns 67% of its revenue to players and contains one winner in every 3.54 tickets. Twenty-five cents of every dollar spent on the game is returned to the two winners as of today. This game represents significant value and towers above all other choices at this time. I am playing it exclusively.

 

Top Rated Games

1.       $4 Cash for Life #1165 (19% of float remaining, +/- 3%)

2.       $3 Scrabble #1777 (9%, +/- 3%)

3.       $20 Extraordinaire #1742 (94%, +/- 4%)

4.       $1 Red Hot 50s #1788 (46%, +/- 1%)

5.       $20 200 Million #1740 (43%, +/- 4%)

Games to Avoid

1.       $3 Tetris #1793 (no Grand Prizes remaining)

2.       $3 More Lucky Lines #1775 (no Grand Prizes remaining)

3.       $2 Fat Cat #1729 (no Grand Prizes remaining)

4.       $3 Keno #1412

5.       $3 Crossword #3205

$1 - $2 Game Update

Both Cash for Life games have now been retired. Red Hot 50s is playable but keep in mind that the highest prize you can win is $50. There still are over 5000 of those prizes to be claimed.

$3 Game Update

Scrabble #1777 is the best choice by far in this area.

$4 - $5 Game Update

The game of choice stands alone. Don’t look at another game until one of its two Grand Prizes is claimed.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Avoid Classic Gold. For $10 you have to right to expect much more.

Comings and Goings

It was house cleaning week at the OLG. Four games were retired from play: $2 Cash for Life Family, Mahjong, Cross Tripler, and Emerald 7’s. All four were good choices and each had at least one grand prize left. Despite that, these games were deep sixed while three games continue to be sold that are devoid of grand prizes. I’m getting wound up again.

Personal Play

Ten Cash for Life $4 games were purchased. Four were winners returning $28. An altogether expected result. I am not discouraged.

Meanderings

A poster last week asked about the difference between Ontario 49 and Lottario. These are both “Winner Take All” type games but I thought that I would give them a look-see. Each game costs $1.

Lottario is a game where the pot builds if it is not won. You get two lines and 45 numbers to choose from. Your chance to win the jackpot is a little over 4 million:1. The OLG takes 50% of the money invested. It then takes $50,000 of the total invested and dedicates it to Early Bird players who must match all 4 numbers drawn in the early bird draw. In the results that I reviewed, there were  111 Early Bird winners. The total money of people who won $5 is then subtracted from what is left. There were over 33,000 $5 winners in the draw I reviewed. What is left is then split between the bigger winners on a percentage basis with the grand Prize winner(s) accruing 44% of the total funds. In other words, a little over 20% of all money that goes into the game goes to the one or maybe two winners.

Ontario 49 uses four more numbers and establishes fixed prizes for its top two winners. You receive one line of numbers and have one chance in 14 million to win the Grand Prize of $2 million. That amount will be split if there are two winners. The players with 5 of 6 plus the bonus split $50,000. There were 6 of those in the draw I reviewed. All other winners received fixed amounts regardless of the number of winners. The OLG has tried to enhance the number of winners by providing a free ticket to those who have 2 of six numbers plus the bonus number.

Which game is better? I would keep an eye on the Grand Prize for Lottario. If it is unclaimed for a few draws then I would prefer that game to Ontario 49. Lottario is also better for having 4 or 5 numbers correct. Ontario 49 is better for smaller prizes. Both games are poor by this standard when compared to Scratch and Win games. One final comment is that Ontario 49 markets itself on the basis of having lots of winners. Lottario yields one winner in every 20.89 tickets. Ontario 49 claims to have one winner in every 6.6 tickets. That’s true but remember that 80% of its winners win a free ticket. Your odds to win any monetary prize are 32:1.

I had fun looking at that. Please send along any other questions you may have.

Best of luck to Vic at Lac Leamy tomorrow.

Doug

Cash For Life #1165 Remains the Champ

The recommended game is setting all time records on my evaluation method. Why? Over 7% of total revenue is dedicated to the Grand Prize winners and two of those three prizes remain outstanding with only 23%, +/- 4% of the ticket float left to sell. Your odds to win are now roughly 860,000:1. I can't be sure but I gotta feeling that at least one of those prizes is about to be claimed, maybe both, very soon. A $4 investment with one chance in 3.54 to win any prize and two chances at $675,000 is more than enough to attract my attention.

If you intend to play the game, remember to play game #1165 and not #1161. The latter game is OK but the recommended game is a much better choice.

Top Rated Games

1. Cash For Life #1165 (23% of float left to sell +/- 4%)
2. Scrabble #1777 (10%, +/- 3%)
3. Cash For Life $2 (17%, +/- 2%)
4. Cross Tripler #1755 (9%, +/- 2%)
5. Prestige (37%, +/- 7%)

Games to Avoid

1. More Lucky Lines #1755
2. Fat Cat #1729
3. Quest For Gold Crossword #3204
4. Classic Gold #1771
5. Crossword #3205

$1 - $2 Game Update

The $1 Cash For Life game was retired this past week. The $2 version remains an excellent choice and the Red Hot 50's is also good if you don't mind sacrificing the prospect of a big Grand Prize.

$3 Game Update

Scrabble #1777 is a very strong choice. Keno #1412 and Mahjong are also playable.

$4 - $5 Game Update

There are other reasonable choices in this area but I can't recommend any game over the Cash For Life #1165.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Prestige took a serious hit this week, losing two Grand Prizes. Regardless, it remains the top pick in this group. If you don't like Prestige, then simply stay away from Classic Gold. It is terrible.

Comings and Goings

The $1 Cash for Life game was canceled this week. Too bad - there was one juicy prize left to be claimed and only 400,000 tickets left to sell.

New on the scene is a terrible Crossword game #3205 and a new version of an old favourite of this blog: Turbo Cash. A reader is already wading into this game and has had early success. Check his comments in the comments section of the previous post. The problem with these Crossword games is that they are cheap on the top end. There are only 10 Grand Prizes of $50,000 each and a staggering 20 million tickets in the float. Facing odds of 2 million:1 in order to win $50,000 does not ring my chime. Further, one chance in 6.84 to win anything more than $3 is second worst in this group next to Quest For Gold Crossword. Yes, I know that you like the game. So do I but try to resist the temptation.

Personal Play

I am expanding my play in order to attack Cash for Life #1165. Last week I bought 10 tickets. That left my seller with one left in the rack. Now, I defy anyone to tell me that they possess the kahunas to leave the store with 10 tickets whilst leaving an orphan ticket left to be sold to the next person. So, 11 tickets contained five winners. One winner was a free $10 Cash for Life ticket that was worth $10. My total return was $38 for the $44 invested. I have now bought 40 of these tickets. I have cashed 35% of them for a total return of $116.

Closing Comments

Imagined transcript from an OLG headquarters meeting on game management:

Boss - How is that $1 Cash for Life game going?
Subaltern - Well, we've sold 85% of the tickets and there is still one grand prize left to be won.
Boss - Should we order up the final tranche of tickets from the supplier?
Subaltern - At this point we have sold 2.6 million tickets which should translate into a profit of $900,000. But, there is a juicy $67,500 prize left out there somewhere.
Boss - Good. How much do we make if we sell every ticket?
Subaltern - $1.2 million but if that Grand Prize ticket sells soon, that money will come out of our existing profits and we'll have to sell the 400,000 tickets in the final tranche without any Grand Prize left to be won.
Boss - I see. What is your recommendation?
Subaltern - I think that we should hold off on the final tranche. We then choke all the vendors by not sending them any tickets. Once we're reasonably sure that the winning ticket won't show up, we cancel the game making us the winner of the $67,500 ticket. If the winning ticket gets claimed soon then we order the final tranche and flog them to unsuspecting players everywhere.
Boss - Agreed. Good work Jimmy, you've got a future at OLG.


Good Luck to all this week.

Doug

Cash For Life Family #1165 Remains the Choice

An uneventful week with Grand Prizes being claimed in More Lucky Lines, QFG Crossword (2), Tetris, Cross Tripler (both versions), and CFL Family $10. The recommended game remained unscathed. It is noteworthy that the secondary prizes have also not been hollowed out for this game. It is a strong choice. At present, your chance to win the Grand Prize is 1.2 million to 1.

A reader commented this past week that he hates the game. I can well understand anyone's frustration with any game. As much as this blog identifies the best plays, I would never argue against trusting one's instincts. If you feel lucky, jump in!

Top Rated Games

1. CFL Family $1 (13% of float left +/- 25%)
2. CFL Family $4 (33% of float left +/- 4%)
3. Prestige (41% of float left +/- 7%)
4. CFL Family $2 (19% of float left +/- 4%)
5. $200 Million (46% of float left +/- 4%)

Games to Avoid

1. Cash In (23% of float left +/- 3%)
2. More Lucky Lines (22% of float left +/- 3%)
3. QFG Crossword (35% of float left +/- 1%)
4. Tetris (63% of float left +/- 3%)
5. Bingo (57% of float left +/- 2%)

$1 - $2 Game Update

If you can find any $1 or $2 CFL Games for sale, grab them. It's rare that inexpensive games are this highly rated.

$3 Game Update

Keno #1412 is the recommended game in this area. Mahjong and Scrabble are also reasonable choices.

$4 - $5 Game Update

The CFL $4 game towers over the other games. Remember, its game #1165. Game #1161 is not bad, but nowhere near as good as the recommended game.

$10 - $20 Games Update

Prestige and either of the $20 games are reasonable choices.

Comings and Goings

A $2 Crazy Eights game was introduced this past week. Its prize structure looks like the typical pyramid distribution and its Prizes > $100 and for the Grand Prize of $28,888 (there are 5 available) are good. The game has potential, just not yet.

Personal Play

Six CFL Family $4 games included two winners worth $16. A typical and not unexpected result.

Closing Comments

A reader messaged me this past week reminding me about the original Wintario draws that were televised with Faye Dance. I remember the show but would never have come up with her name without his message. The OLG has certainly evolved greatly since those days in the middle 70's.

If any one has an opinion on the Kentucky Derby tomorrow, send it along. No race is tougher to handicap.


Doug

Wild 10s - For The Time Being

Wild 10s surrendered ten of its Grand Prize winners last week while selling 50,000 tickets. There are 77 Grand prizes left to be claimed and 594,000 tickets left to sell. Your chances to win one are one in 7,700.

I have been thrown a curve ball by the OLG. Every time I devise a mathematical system to determine what the best game is to play, they come out with a game that exploits my method. This time it is Double Cash For Life. The game only began this week but it already computes as a top game. Further explanation to follow.

I am considering tweaking my system. Before doing so, I'd be interested to hear from any readers as to what you look for in a game. I know what a bad game looks like but the best game can be difficult to define - different tastes and all. Do you want large Grand Prizes, many Grand Prizes, lots of middle prizes, lots of smaller prizes, most winning tickets? For me, the Grand Prize is important but if that was all, I should be buying 649 tickets where a large part of every draw goes to the winner. Other winners fight over the scraps. Instant Games are more democratic and ostensibly more fun to play. So drop me a line, I'd be interested to hear of personal preferences.

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Wild 10s
2. Double Cash For Life - 1162
3. $200 Million
4. Pick 3
5. Cleopatra

Games to Avoid

• Quest for Gold Crossword
• Tetris
• Cash for Life - 1159

Note: Be very careful with the Cash for Life games. Game #1162 is new and a good choice. Game #1159 has no Grand Prizes left! Check with the retailer if you get to the store and forget which is which. Or you can check on your mobile at www.scratchodds.com .

$1 - $2 Game Update

Pick 3 continues to be a good game. If you don't like the tiny $500 Grand Prize, then $2 Silver Gold is the next best game in this group.

$3 Game Update

Texas Hold'Em is the best pick in this area. Your odds to win one of the two remaining $75,000 Grand Prizes are 1:390,000, down from 1:852,000 when the game began.

$4 - $5 Games

Double Cash For Life springs from the gate as a good choice here. Of the games that have been selling for some time, Cleopatra or Jacks are Wild are both good games.

$10 - $20 Games

Putting Wild 10s to the side, $200 Million still has seven $2 Million Grand Prizes to be claimed. Sales of this game are poor. The OLG (this is actually an inter-provincial game) are learning that we Canadians have trouble slapping down $20 for a ticket.

Comings and Goings

Each game available for sale has its own particular character. Double Cash for Life was introduced this week. It is a game that is rich on the top end with 4 Grand Prizes of $2000/week for life and at the bottom end where there are many prizes of $4, $6, $8, $10, and $12. The prize distribution for anything else is very poor. So if you're hoping to snag a middling prize, chances are that you will be disappointed. Here is the prize distribution. I have indicated the same percentage breakdown for last week's new game (20X Lucky) in parentheses.

Grand Prize - 14.7% (4.3%)
Prizes between $100 and the Grand Prize - .9% (2.4%)
Prizes Greater than Ticket Cost and <$100 - 40.4% (51.1%)
Prizes for the Cost of the Ticket - 9.8% (9.2%)
OLG Profit - 30.2% (33%)

You will note that the percentages do not tally up for Cash for Life. I suspect that there is an error on the detail sheet and that the OLG profit percentage should be higher. That number is higher the cheaper the game but this game is listed with a player return rate equivalent to $10 and $20 Games.

We say good bye this week to the venerable Bejeweled. This was the recommended game for several weeks this year. During that time I purchased 31 tickets, cashed 14 of them for a total of $300. Not bad. The OLG sold this game longer than it should have, according to their own policies, but I'm going to assume that they had a defensible reason for doing so.

Personal Play

Four Wild 10s tickets contained one winner for the grand total of $10. Grrrr. I guess it is better than being shut out, but not much better. I now stand at a cash rate of 38% and a total Return on Investment of 78%. I'm trending down and need a boost soon.

Happy Canada Day to all.

Doug