It's Christmas Scratch and Win Time

 We may all be locked down but Instant Tickets remain available. The Christmas Games are on sale, however, as always, be sure to be playing the good games, or, more importantly, avoid the bad games! Here is the current list of games. Any game not mentioned falls into the category of "neutral" meaning that the availability of Grand Prizes is roughly in line with the size of the ticket float remaining to be sold. 

The Best Games

$10 Gifts of Gold #2219

$ 5  Merry Money #2228

$30 Cross Extrem #2188

Good Games

$5 5X The Cash #2212

$5 Triple Play #2213

$10 Cross Deluxe #2216

Poor Games

$1 Red Hot 100's #2192

$3 Uno #2165

$5 Bingo Doubler # 2180

$10 Bingo Multiplier #3073

$10 Chrome #2154

$10 Turbo #2198

$20 200x Multiplier #2056

I am following with some interest the arrival of single event sports wagering in Ontario. This is presently against the law but bill C-218 will change the Criminal Code to allow it. The Bill's sponsor is a PC MP from Saskatchewan, Kevin Waugh. The bill had been introduced in the previous parliament and is now playing catch-up. At the same time, the Provincial Budget Bill allows for the establishment of this form of wagering in Ontario. So, my question is, who is behind this initiative? It appears to be across parties and in every order of government. 

This type of wagering is presently allowed in 14 states with Ohio and Mass next to join the party. In Ontario, sports wagering is restricted to Pro-line which requires a minimum three game parlay for any wager. That portion of OLG revenue will be obliterated when single game wagering arrives. 

What I can't figure out is who is going to run the platform. I saw a video clip of a Windsor MP saying that its arrival will save Casino Windsor from the doom of cross border competition. The CEO of the Woodbine Entertainment Group said in a press release that if their group was not chosen to operate the platform, it could mean the end of horse racing in Ontario. Off shore established companies such as Bet Fair have actively barred Canadian residents from holding accounts as they want to secure the contract and they are already running the identical business in England. The OLG will want their slice of the pie in order to replace the lost Pro-line revenue that is going to result. So, who is the puppeteer here? Please reveal yourself. 

My best to all during these challenging times. 

Doug

The World of Scratch Tickets Returns to Normal

The OLG has opened its prize office again (with safety protocols) which has no doubt flushed out all the winners who had been unable to cash their prizes. Here is the current list of games along with my recommendations;

Very Good

$3 #3229 Crossword ; $5 #2212 5X The Cash ; $5 #3104 The Big Spin ; $10 #2190 Sonic Multiplier.

Good

$5 #2180 Bingo Doubler, $5 #2136 Cross Tripler; $10 #3147 The Bigger Spin; $20 #2151 Silver Stacks.

Poor

$2 # 2103 Cashilicious; $3 #3030 Bingo ; $10 #2154 Chrome; $20 #2056 200x Multiplier.

Terrible

$3 #2191 Cash Words; $5 #3103 The Big Spin. 

All other games are in the neutral range. 

I haven't been to my local seller since the virus arrived. I have decided that it is safe for me to walk across the street, put my mask on, and spend two minutes picking out some tickets. I hope that Dr Tam approves. 

OLG News

With the velocity that the news cycle works these days, I have no doubt that most people have forgotten that Premier Ford tasked the Finance Minister, Rod Phillips, with looking into the bonuses that were paid to OLG Executives during the pandemic. In my earlier post I pointed out that it was Mr Phillips himself who was the benefactor of similar bonuses when he served as the CEO of the OLG. I've been scouring the media for word on how Rod is handling his assigned task. So far, no news. Hmmm. 

I noted that a group titled "Casino Host Municipalities Group" has been lobbying Premier Ford to loosen the restrictions that casinos would have to comply with if they re-open. This group is comprised of the Mayors of municipalities where casinos are located. It must be nice for the casino companies to be getting Mayors of cities to be doing their bidding. Under phase 3 re-opening the casinos will only be able to admit 50 people at a time. The casino operators, through their spokespeople (The Mayors), say that they should be able to allow many more in and to do so safely. Let's see, you're sitting in a place with recirculated air for prolonged periods of time, enclosed with no windows, sharing chairs, touching slot machines and money. I can't think of any "business" at higher risk of contagion than a casino with the possible exception of a strip club. There is one of them in Toronto that re-opened and when some patrons tested positive some time later, the authorities were unable to contact trace the cases backwards as the patrons had provided false identities. Beautiful!

I'm confident that the Premier will give the casino operators the consideration that they are due - nada! And shame on the mayors who are being cuckolded by these casino poo-bahs. 

Doug

Strange Days Indeed

Now that we are 100 days into the world of Covid, I decided to do a blog update. Personally, I have not been purchasing any tickets but I can feel the urge returning, bit by bit. My local variety store has been open almost throughout this ordeal but I've been too cautious to go inside.That could change shortly.

When I reviewed the outstanding prize information that I use for the updates, I was shocked at the number of games that were in positive status. Many were in unbelievably strong "buy" positions. In fact, it was so strong as to not be possible.

After thinking about the situation for a while, the eureka moment struck me. What's going on is that OLG Prize Center has been closed since min-March. At present, people can cash winning tickets of less that $1000 at local retailers, if those retailers have a sufficient float. Tickets from between $1000 and $50,000 can be mailed in to the OLG. The website warns that the vetting process normally takes 4-6 weeks. This will be extended due to Covid. I also have to ask myself that if I had a $5000 winning ticket, would I mail it in? Not likely. All tickets of $50,000 or greater cannot be cashed at present.

The result is that web site shows many games that were launched over the past four months as having all or almost all of their Grand Prizes remaining outstanding. People are cashing small tickets at their local retailers so it appears that the games are proceeding as one would expect from that vantage point.

So, what games to play at this time? I would recommend either games that are brand new or the games with large numbers of grand prizes. In the latter category, it is very difficult for an imbalance to be created given the large number of winning tickets. If you're buying any other games there is a chance that the Grand Prizes have been either all or mostly won. On that basis, here is my recommended list of games:

$3 Bingo 3030 (beware and avoid version 3029)
$3 Crossword 3228 (beware versions 3226 and 3227)
$3 Wild $100  2177
$5 Bingo Doubler 2180 (beware version 2171)
$5 Fast $500 2183
$5 Tripling 2186
$10 5000 Flash 2174


OLG News

Of note is the $500 million line of credit that the Province has extended to the OLG. One would think that a positive side effect of the privatization of the the casinos would be that the off loading of risk would have worked in their favour. However, one of the reasons for the financial support is the "Contractual Payments to Casino Operators!" Huh? Someone needs to look under that stone.

The OLG also lost a court case recently as it relates to First Nations groups. The original agreements called for First Nations groups to receive 1.7% of all OLG revenue. It was the OLG's view that since the casinos had been privatized, the casino companies fell outside that agreement. Not so said a judge.

The OLG is now only reporting financially on an annual basis. They used to report quarterly but now the casino revenue is accruing to private businesses. I'm particularly interested in their revenue from www.playolg.ca . The OLG made lots of predictions about the growth in revenue from that source and that was before the Covid closures of casinos. It's my view that the revenue growth there will not be explosive. I have a friend who logged on, deposited $100 and promptly lost it on the virtual slots. He won't go back. There is something discomforting about losing money on a fake slot machine. I want to know if other people have the same reaction that I do.

Lastly, a feather for the OLG. Poster AJ had some damaged tickets that he mailed into the OLG. The OLG verified the tickets and sent him his winnings in prompt order. For more information, drop AJ a line.


Stay save everyone. The OLG needs your money.


Doug

Wild Cards #2166 is the Recommended Game

In the midst of a pandemic coupled with a stock market crash, thank goodness the world of scratch tickets remains unscathed.

The top game, Wild Cards, is presently enjoying a 47% positive Grand Prize imbalance. Further, 1 of 2 second prizes is outstanding and 2 of 4 third prizes. An estimated 70% of the float remains to be sold which means that the tickets should be readily available.

Players should look out for Super Money and Pac Man. All the Grand Prizes have been claimed for both games. For Super Money, the Grand Prize is $250,000 which, according to OLG rules, must result in the cancellation of the game. Lets see how long it takes them to get around to it seeing as an estimated 30% of the float remains to be sold.

Players face the situation that The Big Spin and Bingo Multiplier both have two versions of the game running at the same time. For the Big Spin, play Game #3103 and for Bingo Multiplier search the less abundant Game # 3070.

In the news this week is the announcement that Stephen Rigby is leaving his CEO position this coming summer. Rigby was the President of the Canada Border Services Agency before coming to the OLG. The articles in the paper list his salary at $800k with a severence package of $1 million. Let's not forget that he is not the first OLG President to reach those compensation highs. His predecessor, Rod Phillips, was the first to pull in big numbers. He achieved his during a period of Liberal government austerity. Senior public servant salaries had been frozen but Rod managed to spit that hook when Paul Godfrey doubled his annual bonus pushing his compensation into the same strata. Sneaky, eh? Oh yea, this is the same Rod Phillips who is now the Minister of Finance for the Government of Ontario.

I suspect that Rigby decided to jump before the unrealistic projections from the OLG Modernization Plan, drafted by Phillips, become seen as the pie in the sky falsehoods that were used to justify the privatization of the casinos in Ontario. Further, the OLG will be reducing staff in the coming year and no public executive wants to be on the bridge for that. Stay tuned to see who the next person with no gaming experience is who is chosen to head the gambling monopoly known as OLG.

$5	2166	Wild Cards	Excellent
$1	2152	Fiesta Treas	Very Good
$3	2080	Scrabble	Very Good
$3	2178	Slots	Very Good
$10	2130	Bigger Spin	Very Good
$10	2175	Monopoly	Very Good
$3	2182	Round Trip Rich	Good
$5	2138	Bingo Doubler	Good
$10	2170	Cross Deluxe	Good
$10	2054	Royale	Good
$10	3070	Bingo Multiplier	Good
$30	2055	Triple Million	Good
$50	2159	Classic Extra	Good
$1	2143	Emoji Money	Neutral
$2	2149	Movie Money	Neutral
$3	2177	Wild 100	Neutral
$3	3227	Cross Word	Neutral
$4	1175	Cash For Life	Neutral
$5	2171	Bingo Doubler	Neutral
$5	2135	Cross Tripler	Neutral
$5	2183	Fast 500	Neutral
$5	2126	Sizzling 5's	Neutral
$5	3103	The Big Spin	Neutral
$10	2155	Cash Blowout	Neutral
$10	3071	Bingo Multiplier	Neutral
$20	2052	Supreme	Neutral
$20	2168	Cash Club	Neutral
$20	2172	Super Set For Life	Neutral
$3	3029	Bingo	Poor
$20	2156	Celebrate 2020	Poor
$3	2142	Pac Man	Terrible
$5	3101	The Big Spin	Terrible
$10	2162	Super Money	Terrible

More Turnover

About half a dozen games have been eliminated since the last update. New games coming on board include a new Bingo Doubler (2171), Emoji Money (2143), Fast 500 (2183), and Cash Blowout (2155).

The size of the float for Scrabble 2080 is dwindling. You may have trouble finding those tickets. Apart from that one, Slots 2178 is the top rated game.

JD posted last week about an individual player who has knocked down several big pots in Point Spread Pools. It does strike me as strange and I am going to look into it. I doubt that there is anything fishy going on although one can never be certain of that. This chap, Jeffrey Cisma, obviously puts a lot of money into the pools. It may be that because he buys a lot of tickets that he can gain an advantage over players who only play one or two tickets per pool. By playing a lot he can take underdogs that players who only play a couple of tickets would stay away from. Regardless, he has to overcome a steep house cut. I'll keep you updated.

An article this past week indicated that the OLG will be reducing the size of its workforce. I never want to see someone lose their job but this move seems inevitable. They sold off the operating of all the casinos and their head office head count did not budge. The number of OLG staff who made the Sunshine List did not budge between 2018 and 2019. At the same time, the OLG's contributions to the Provincial Treasury failed to meet projections. Something needed to be done. Maybe OLG CEO Stephen Rigby could take a salary hair cut given the level of his current compensation.

$3	2080	Scrabble	Excellent
$3	2178	Slots	Excellent
$5	2166	Wild Cards	Very Good
$10	2054	Royale	Very Good
$20	2052	Supreme	Very Good
$5	2138	Bingo Doubler	Good
$10	2130	Bigger Spin	Good
$10	2175	Monopoly	Good
$10	3070	Bingo Multiplier	Good
$20	2156	Celebrate 2020	Good
$30	2055	Triple Million	Good
$50	2159	Classic Extra	Good
$1	2143	Emoji Money	Neutral
$1	2152	Fiesta Treas	Neutral
$2	2149	Movie Money	Neutral
$3	2177	Wild 100	Neutral
$3	3227	Cross Word	Neutral
$3	3029	Bingo	Neutral
$4	1175	Cash For Life	Neutral
$5	2098	Bling	Neutral
$5	2135	Cross Tripler	Neutral
$5	2183	Fast 500	Neutral
$5	2126	Sizzling 5's	Neutral
$10	2155	Cash Blowout	Neutral
$10	2170	Cross Deluxe	Neutral
$10	2129	25x Multiplier	Neutral
$20	2168	Cash Club	Neutral
$20	2172	Super Set For Life	Neutral
$3	2142	Pac Man	Poor
$5	2171	Bingo Doubler	Poor
$5	3101	The Big Spin	Poor
$3	3225	QFG Crossword	Terrible
$10	2162	Super Money	Terrible

Turnover Time

You know that the Christmas Season is behind us when the OLG retires all of it's Christmas games. Gone from play are: Fiesta Treasure, Peppermint, Bling, Bigger Spin, Instant Gift Pack and Festive Feast.

In the world of extremes, we lost More Lucky Lines last update with all three of its Grand Prizes left to be claimed. A nice little gift for the OLG. On the other extreme we have the Quest for Gold ticket which has the worst profile I have ever seen. The Top Prize list shows that all of the games Top prizes ($50k, $25k, $10k, $5k) have been claimed yet the game remains for sale. The OLG gains on the turns as well as the straightaways.

We have three new games this update including a new version of the $5 Bingo Doubler. If you like that game, try to pick up the earlier version 2138 as it is a better proposition at this point.

I picked up a Cross Deluxe ticket yesterday and was pleased that I won $10 with it. Lo and behold, when I checked it on the OLG App, I had won $40. That win offsets about half of the money I lost chasing a Grand Prize on More Lucky Lines. It is also another example that you should check every single ticket you purchase with either the App or the ticket checker in the store. This is not the first time that I have won a prize and did not know it. The OLG enjoys enough advantages in these games without me adding my own advancing senility to the list.

Keep warm.


Doug

$3	2177	Wild 100	New
$5	2171	Bingo Doubler	New
$10	2155	Cash Blowout	New
$3	3027	Bingo	Very Good
$3	2080	Scrabble	Very Good
$3	2178	Slots	Very Good
$10	2170	Cross Deluxe	Very Good
$10	2054	Royale	Very Good
$1	2152	Fiesta Treas	Good
$3	3227	Cross Word	Good
$5	2138	Bingo Doubler	Good
$5	2135	Cross Tripler	Good
$5	2086	Ruby 7's	Good
$5	2166	Wild Cards	Good
$10	3070	Bingo Multiplier	Good
$20	2156	Celebrate 2020	Good
$20	2052	Supreme	Good
$2	2161	Ontario Love	Neutral
$3	3029	Bingo	Neutral
$3	2142	Pac Man	Neutral
$3	2158	Strike Spare	Neutral
$5	2126	Sizzling 5's	Neutral
$20	2168	Cash Club	Neutral
$20	2172	Super Set For Life	Neutral
$30	2055	Triple Million	Neutral
$50	2159	Classic Extra	Neutral
$2	2149	Movie Money	Poor
$4	1175	Cash For Life	Poor
$10	2129	25x Multiplier	Poor
$5	3101	The Big Spin	Very Poor
$10	2162	Super Money	Very Poor
$2	2163	Stock Stuff	Terrible
$3	3225	QFG Crossword	Disaster

More Lucky Lines is Retired

As predicted, More Lucky Lines was retired at the end of December. Over 90% of the ticket float was sold and none of the 3 Grand Prizes were claimed. No doubt the OLG has its rationalization in hand and it is logical but the whole thing does not sit well with me. A poster to the last update suggested that all $3 games with ticket floats of 3 million tickets (small games) have a 3 month lifespan. That's curious. I've never heard that before but the post makes sense. I'm going to follow up with the OLG to confirm. At any rate, the game is gone.

I was able to discover some troves of tickets in the wind up of the game - 55 in total. Players scratching that many tickets should expect a return approaching the overall numbers for the game. Given that the Grand Prize winners win a much lower percentage of the pot than Lotto games, one should expect that a higher percentage of winnings are returned to the winners of smaller prizes. This proved to be the case for me. My total return was 65.45% of my investment versus the published return of 64.95%. One in every 3.24 tickets was a winner versus the published number of 3.27. One can't get much closer that that.

My current assessment of active games follows:

$3	2178	Slots	New
$20	2168	Cash Club	New
$20	2172	Super Set For Life	New
$3	3027	Bingo	Very Good
$5	2135	Cross Tripler	Very Good
$10	3070	Bingo Multiplier	Very Good
$10	2054	Royale	Very Good
$1	2152	Fiesta Treas	Good
$3	2080	Scrabble	Good
$5	2138	Bingo Doubler	Good
$5	2164	Holiday Win	Good
$5	2086	Ruby 7's	Good
$5	2126	Sizzling 5's	Good
$10	2130	Bigger Spin Win	Good
$10	2170	Cross Deluxe	Good
$20	2052	Supreme	Good
$3	3029	Bingo	Neutral
$3	3227	Cross Word	Neutral
$3	2142	Pac Man	Neutral
$3	2167	Peppermint	Neutral
$3	2158	Strike Spare	Neutral
$4	1175	Cash For Life	Neutral
$5	2098	Bling	Neutral
$10	1926	Instant Gift Pack	Neutral
$10	2162	Super Money	Neutral
$20	2156	Celebrate 2020	Neutral
$20	2169	Festive Fest	Neutral
$30	2055	Triple Million	Neutral
$50	2159	Classic Extra	Neutral
$2	2149	Movie Money	Poor
$2	2161	Ontario Love	Poor
$5	3101	The Big Spin	Poor
$5	2166	Wild Cards	Poor
$10	2129	25x Multiplier	Very Poor
$1	2160	Jewel Jackpot	Terrible
$2	2163	Stock Stuff	Terrible
$3	3225	QFG Crossword	Terrible

It does strike me that there appears to be more big ticket games ($10 and up) than what was the case a five years ago when this blog began. I'm going to run a comparison for discussion in the next update.

Happy Scratching

Doug