New Evaluation Method for 2013

Before I get to the content of this post, Turbo Cash remains the unblemished choice if you are buying tickets this week.

How one evaluates the various Scratch and Win games is a matter of preference. Input from readers suggests that my emphasis on the Grand Prizes is misplaced as the chances of anyone winning one are never more than minuscule. I understand what those folks are saying but surely we buy the tickets with the Grand Prize in mind to some extent.

The good thing about Scratch and Win games is that they vary in their makeup. The current recommended game is Turbo Cash. This is a $10 game with 3 - $250,000 grand prizes. By comparison, Ontario Millions contains 3 - $1,000,000 Grand Prizes for only $5. If your only consideration was the Grand Prize, you would go with Ontario Millions. But the OLG profit for Turbo Cash is 30% and for Ontario Millions 33%. How is that possible? It is because Turbo Cash contains more smaller prizes and players have a greater chance to win something (1 in every 3.13 tickets is a winner) than with Ontario Millions (1 in every 4.40 tickets is a winner). If the jackpot was your only criterion then you should be playing Lotto Max and 649. In those games the winner gets rich and everyone else is a loser.

Old Evaluation Method

During the course of the past year, the game I recommended took the percentage of grand prizes remaining and subtracted the sum of the percentage of tickets left to be sold and the house take. As an example, Turbo Cash has 100% of its grand prizes left to be claimed. It has a house advantage of 30% and 44% of its tickets left to be sold. These numbers yield a rating of +26. The Value Play used the number of $1000 prizes left to be claimed and divided that number by the number of tickets left. The result was then divided by the cost of the ticket.

New Evaluation Method

I am going to continue to use two methods but I am going to change the evaluation method. The main method will multiply the number of grand prizes left to be claimed by the amount of the grand prize. This total will then be divided by the product of the number of tickets left to be sold and the cost of the ticket.

The value play will take the total number of tickets left to be sold whose value is $100 or greater and divide that number by the product of the number of tickets left to be sold and the cost of the ticket and the chances of winning anything more than what you paid for the ticket. The OLG does not always publish the outstanding ticket information down to the $100 level. I will be asking them to do so in future.

The blog in 2013 will identify the best $1-$2, $3-$5, and $10-$20 games for each method.

Personal Play

I ended the year by making a double purchase the week before Christmas. Four Turbo Cash tickets contained 2 winners totaling $25. I ended the year cashing 38% of all of the tickets with a 63% Return on Investment. The cash rate was higher than I should have expected but I was unable to get even one good cash. My largest cash was $50 and I only had one of those.

Oshima from Ottawa reported a $20 cash this past week. Hopefully she treated her husband to Starbucks with her profit. Jay in Scarborough went crazy by investing his entire $70 profit from playing Pro-Line all year into a variety of tickets. He turned the $70 into $109. Not bad.

Happy New Year to all visitors. I'll be back next week with a clean slate and new methods.

Doug

2012 Ends with Turbo Cash #1713 Being the Top Choice

The recommended game sold another 56,000 of its tickets this week without a winner. Forty-four percent of the tickets remain to be sold and all three Grand Prizes are left to be claimed. Your chances to win the Grand Prize have been reduced from 476,000:1 when the game started to 210,000:1 today.


Best $1-$2 Game - Snow Globe #1725
Best $3 - $5 Game - Instant Millions #1683

Crossword #1299 continues to be the big seller with almost 200,000 tickets of the 700,000 tickets the OLG sells daily being for this game. Percentage wise, Frogger is popular. Twelve percent of its float was sold over the past week.

The best $1000 value game is $2 Blazing Sevens. The only game with all of its Grand Prizes claimed is Golden Goose. Avoid this game.

Comings and Goings

No action on either score this week. Prizes of $25,000 or more were claimed this past week in: Cavan, Spencerville, East York, Hamilton, Peterborough, Kingston, and Scarborough.

Personal Play

Finally some success! Three Turbo Cash tickets contained two winners and $65. With one week to go in the year I am at a 37% cash rate with a return on investment of .63 for every dollar invested. That puts me just about where one would expect to be.

Nic from Ottawa played a Turbo Cash and won $50. Norm from Port Credit came up empty with his and Anna from Etobicoke is saving hers for Christmas morning. I like that. Anna also purchased hers in Flamboro in an attempt the avoid the anti-GTA bias that seems to exist at the moment.

I will be revising the evaluation methods for 2013 in response to feedback that I have received. More on that in 2012's final post.

Good Luck and Merry Christmas.

Doug

Turbo Cash #1713 Continues On Top

Nine more days and still no Grand Prize winners for Turbo Cash #1713. Forty-Eight percent of the tickets are left to be sold and all three Grand Prizes of $250,000 remain to be claimed.

Best $1- $2 Game - Snow Globe
Best $3 - $5 Game - Instant Millions



Instant Millions is running a strong second choice and the $1 million Grand Prizes may attract players. Of course, there is a trade off at the lower end of the prize structure.

The best $1000 win value play is Golden Goose but there are no Grand Prizes left for that game so it should be avoided. The next best game is $3 - Keno #1410 with 195 prizes of $1000 or more left to be claimed from 76% of the 4,896,000 tickets that were produced.

The best pure odds to win a Grand Prize is our game of choice with a 230,000:1 chance to win $250,000. Beware the $10 ticket cost, however.

Overall ticket sales continue to edge up as we approach Christmas. Lots of folks seemingly cannot wait until the day as they are scratching and winning prizes in the seasonal games. Discipline players, please!

Jay from Scarborough has indicated that he does not like my evaluation system which is based upon winning the Grand Prize. He says that he knows that he will never win a grand prize and instead he wants to know what the best chances are to win anything more than the cost of the ticket. If you have any comments in this regard, please share them on the blog. The new year is coming and I'd be happy to add or alter the current methodology.

Comings and Goings

Our old favourite, Keno #1409 has been retired. There was one Grand Prize remaining to be claimed and 18% of the tickets were left at the point of cancellation. Jacks are Wild was also retired. It was our game of choice for a while. It had 2 Grand Prizes remaining and 12% of the tickets left as of the end of its run. Why not let that game run until someone wins one or both of those prizes? Golden Goose with no Grand Prizes left continues to be sold with 33% of its tickets left.

$2 Bonus Banco was introduced this week. The game is interesting as it only has a 33% house take. Most $1-$2 games have a house take of 40%. Chances to win a prize more than the $2 you paid are 6:1. That's pretty good. Hopefully we will be able to play that game later on.

Personal Play

A discouraging week. Four Turbo Cashes contained two winners and a meager $20. I am now at a cash rate of 36% and a Return on Investment of 52%. I continue to fall behind expectations. I need a $50 winner to bring me back up.

Winners

$25,000 - $100,000 winners this week came from Ottawa (2), Sarnia, Wallaceburg, Sault Ste. Marie, Midland and Thunder Bay. $100,000 and up winners hailed from Maple and Etobicoke. Nice to see a Toronto winner sneak into the group.



Good Luck
Doug

Turbo Cash #1713 is an Outstanding Play

I'm back from my trip to Dubai and London and not much has changed - but things have improved! No Turbo Cash tickets were cashed since my departure. All three Grand Prizes of $250,000 remain to be claimed and only 53% of the tickets remain to be sold. I know that $10 is a steep price for a ticket but it is rare that a game tilts as much as this one has in favour of the player.

Best $1-$2 play - Snow Globe #1727
Best $3-$5 play - Ontario Millions #1683



Daily ticket sales are ramping up as the Christmas Season approaches averaging more than 700,000 over the past 17 days. The big seller is $3 Crossword #1299 which is averaging almost 200,000 daily from its jumbo float of over 20 million tickets.

The best $1000 value play remains good old Keno #1409. This game has less than 20% of its ticket float left to sell. For pure odds to win a Grand Prize, buy Cross Tripler #1703. In that game you have a 98,000:1 chance to win $100,000 for a $5 investment.

The only game left to avoid like the plague is $2 Golden Goose. All the Grand Prizes have been claimed and 36% of its tickets remain to be sold so we will likely see it remain in play for a while. If you're looking for stocking stuffers, buy $2 Snow Globe #1727 instead.

Comings and Goings
OLG mercifully retired the $1 Cross Express since my last update. All its Grand Prices had been claimed long ago. Twelve percent of its ticket float remained when its plug was pulled. The $10 Gold Tripler was also retired even though 1 of its 3 - $500,000 prizes remained outstanding and 18% of its ticket float left. I don't like that.

New games include $3 Frogger #1718, $5 Instant Multiplier #1692, and $10 Instant Gift Pack #1919. Your chances of winning anything more than what you paid for the new games are: Frogger 1:7.41, Money Multiplier 1:6.60, Gift Pack 1:5.24. The Gift Pack is an interesting game as it includes five tickets with low Grand Prize amounts for each. Instead, the OLG is spreading the wealth around with more small wins than what you would normally see. It must be Christmas!

Personal Play
Two Turbo Cash tickets returned zilch three weeks ago. I am going to expand my play this week in recognition of my forced hiatus and the favourable odds. Frank from Scarborough reports 0 for 7 on Cross Tripler (there are two of those games currently in play. Fortunately for Frank there is not much to choose between the two games). Jay from Scarborough has branched out buying a variety of tickets. This lack of discipline is not recommended but it does represent a reinvestment of his Pro-Line winnings so his brashness is forgiven.

Over the past three weeks, prizes of $50,000 or more were claimed in: Burlington, Timmins, Corbeil, Aurora, Ottawa (2), Lyndhurst, Hamilton (2), London, York, Cambridge, Port Colborne, Schreiber, and Toronto. Nice to see some secondary markets getting rewarded but only one winner from Toronto? What's up with that?

Good Luck
Doug