Wild 10's Remains the King

The recommended game revealed 9 of its Grand Prize winners last week while selling 47,000 of its tickets. The law of numbers has been in effect with this game since its debut. With 150 Grand Prizes available at the outset, they tend to be revealed at the same rate as the tickets are sold. When there is only 3 or 4 Grand Prizes, they can either be revealed early or late. When it's late, that's when prudent players should arrive at the party. At present, 44 Grand Prizes are left in Wild 10's and 378,000 tickets are left to be sold. Your chances to win one are now 1:8,600.

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Wild 10's
2. $200 Million
3. Fast 200's
4. Extravaganza
5. Pick 3

Games to Avoid

• Quest For Gold Crossword

Note: I have no idea why this game has not been canceled. Less than 5% of its float remains to be sold and, predictably, sales are virtually nil. I'll bet that you could not find one of these tickets even if you wanted to buy one.

$1 - $2 Game Update

The games with a large number of lower grand prizes score well on my rating system. Pick 3 and Fast 200's are both good games to play. With a $1 and $2 price tag, why not?

$3 Game Update

Texas Hold'em surrendered one of its two remaining grand prizes last week. As a result, there is not much left in this category to play. If you must, Scrabble #1754 and Texas Hold'em are the best choices but I would look elsewhere for value.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Cleopatra, Cross Tripler, and Cash For Life are the best games in this category. None is a particularly good play at the moment.

$10 - $20 Game Update

With the exception of Classic White, each of the other three games is playable. I know, the cost is a problem. It is for me too.

Comings and Goings

Our friends at the OLG did us the immense pleasure of retiring Cash for Life #1159 and Tetris last week. Tetris is a particularly good example of OLG decision making that is not in the interest of players. All of the Grand Prizes had been claimed by 30 April in this game. They sold almost 800,000 of those tickets since that date! I guess if people want to play a game with no Grand Prize then that is their choice. Crazy!

The retirement of Cash for Life #1159 deserves a feather for the OLG cap. All of its grand prizes had been claimed by June 19th and 70% of its tickets were left to be sold. Further, it had to compete against Double Cash for Life which has to be an uphill battle. Double Cash for Life sold more tickets last week than the retired game did since becoming bereft of Grand Prizes.

A new game was also introduced this week: Black Jack Tripler. This game has 7 Grand Prizes of $100,000 representing 5.5% of the revenue base for the game. That is a good number. The game has a bit more winners for the price of the ticket than I like to see. The chances to win any prize are 1 in 4.18 (below average) and the chances to win a prize greater than the $5 ticket cost are 1 in 7.19 (below average).

Personal Play

My seller seems to be running out of Wild 10's. He only had 1 last week. I purchased it along with my first $200 Million.

The Wild 10's was a $15 winner, breaking off my losing streak. The $200 Million was a dud. My overall cash rate is now 37% and my total Return on Investment is 71%. I have been trending down for the past two months. I am now at a result that would be expected. So much for 2013 being my lucky year. Still, there is always next week.

There will not be a blog entry next week as I am headed off to Saratoga Springs, New York  for the best thoroughbred horse racing in North America. If you're a horse player and have never been there, I cannot recommend it any more highly. It is a little paradise on earth. I'm hoping to see at least one of the Triple Crown race winners in the Whitney Stakes prepping for the Travers Stakes in late August.

Keep on Truckin.


Doug

Wild 10's Rules the Roost

After a revamp of the current evaluation system, Wild 10's maintains its top billing. Your chances of winning a $10,000 Grand Prize are currently 8000:1. Last week saw 6 of the Grand Prizes claimed from the 50,000 tickets that were sold. This game has currently sold almost 70% of its ticket float which means that tickets should remain readily available over the next few weeks. If you are put off by the relatively low Grand Prize when compared to the price of the ticket, try $200 Million. Feedback has been positive from readers of this blog who have dabbled in that game.

Thanks go out to the two readers who posted messages to the blog concerning the claiming of Grand Prizes in the Double Cash for Life Game #1162. I update my information on Thursdays and the next day another prize had been claimed. A further Grand Prize was claimed during this past week leaving only 1 of the Grand Prizes in that game with fully 85% of the tickets left to be sold. Both the Cash For Life games are now poor propositions yet they are very popular games with players. It is always good practice to check at the store or at  the mobile site http://www.scratchodds.com/ or at the OLG site http://www.olg.ca/lotteries/games/viewInstantTicketInfo.do to ensure that nothing has changed with the game you intend to play. Take nothing for granted.

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Wild 10's
2. $200 Million
3. Texas Hold'em
4. Fast 200's
5. Extravaganza

Games to Avoid

• Quest For Gold Crossword
• Tetris
• Cash for Life #1159

$1 - $2 Game Update

Twelve cents out of every dollar spent on Fast 200's is returned to the Grand Prize winners. This is good. The downside is that only one ticket in every 7.94 is worth more than the $2 you paid for it. It is the top rated game in this group.

$3 Games

Texas Hold'em continues to be a good game in this group. It is recommended for those who balk at paying $10 for a ticket.

$4 - $5 Games

Cleopatra is another game that flies under the radar. You have one chance in 200,000 to win $100,000 for a $5 ticket. Not bad.

$10 - $20 Games

It's interesting how slowly the $200 Million tickets are selling. The game was introduced in early April. About 25% of the tickets have been sold to date. By comparison, Super Bingo and Tetris were introduced at the same time. Over 80% of the $3 tickets for both of these games have been sold to date. I'm not the only one who can suffer from price resistance.

Comings and Goings

It's the dog days of summer. No new games and no retirements this week. We'll let the OLG staff have some vacation.

Personal Play

I erred last week when I stated that there was a 3% chance of having 8 losing Wild 10's tickets in a row. The actual chance of that happening was 6%. Well, I had another wipe out last week. I am now 0 for my last 12 tickets. There is a 1.6% chance of that happening. The strange thing is that my seller had to open another package of tickets for me last week. I got the last four tickets in the trip again. It defies all logic to think that there is something to that but we human beings innately look for patterns. That won't be happening to me again.

Wild 10's is now the worst game that I have played this year. I have cashed on 7 out of 27 tickets for a measly $120. My overall cash rate is down to 35% and my total return on investment is 72%. This is becoming intolerable!


Doug

Wild 10s Stays on Top - For Now

Wild 10s retained its position over the past week. Fifteen of the $10,000 Grand Prizes were claimed last week from the 60,000 tickets sold. Your odds to win one of the remaining 59 Grand Prizes are 8,000:1.

I have been looking at my evaluation method and I have concluded that it needs to be tweaked. Any game that devotes more of its total revenue to the Grand Prize does very well based upon the existing rating method. That fact is important but I think that I am providing too much weight for it. This is not to say that the games that I have been recommending have been poor, it just means that I need a little more balance in the formula. I will change it this week and report on the details of that change in next week's blog.

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Wild 10's
2. Double Cash For Life (Game 1162)
3. $200 Million
4. Fast 200's
5. Texas Hold'Em

Fast 200's is a prime example of my need to re-calibrate the formula. It is a new game with a heavy weighting towards the Grand Prize(s). This makes the game one to watch but, in my opinion, it should not be the 4th rated game before selling any tickets.

Games to Avoid

• Quest For Gold Crossword (5%)
• Tetris (13%)
• Cash for Life (71%) (Game 1159)

I have included the estimated percentage of the ticket float remaining for each of these games. I always find what the OLG does in this area to be disconcerting. Most games are retired when the float drops down below 20%. Quest For Gold Crossword and Tetris are both well below this number but the OLG continues to flog these tickets. Cash for Life has the misfortune to have revealed all three of its Grand Prizes early in its life cycle. Lets see how long this game remains in play. The OLG policy is to retire games where the Grand Prize is $100,000 or more once all the Grand Prizes have been claimed. That should be the case here as the Net Present Value of the Grand Prize for this game is greater than $100,000.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Two new games were introduced this week. Fast 200's looks good. It is one of the games like Pick 3 and Wild 10's where there are lots of Grand Prizes but the Grand Prizes are small. In this case, it is only $200 but there are 3909 to be won.

$3 Game Update

Texas Hold'Em is the best game in this group by a significant margin.

$4 - $5 Games

The Cash For Life Games are always popular. We currently have a very good one and a very bad one. Be careful - play Double Cash For Life.

$10 - $20 Games

Although Wild 10's is our top rated game, none is poor in this category.

Comings and Goings

Cross Express is a new $1 game. Note that apart from the 4 - $10,000 Grand Prizes, there are no prizes available of $100 or more. The ratio of tickets that return your $1 is low, which is a positive. Your chances to win any prize is second best for the $1 - $2 Games.

Fast 200's is a good game with lots of $200 Prizes. If it's action you want rather than a big prize, play away.

A new Bingo (Game 3009) has surprisingly been introduced. I say surprising as the existing game (Game 3008) is in mid-life. The two games are very similar in structure but if you wish to play this game, play the new one.

Personal Play

I'm streaking downwards fast! Last week was my first shut out of the year. I followed that up with another shut out this week. My cash rate is now down to 37% and my Return on Investment to 75%. This is getting serious.

There is only a 3% chance of having eight consecutive losers in Wild 10's. I often wonder why my bad luck is routinely more dramatic than my good luck. A reader once asked me if there is any advantage to where the tickets are in a strip. I did not quite understand the question but now I do. The seller last week opened a new package of tickets and peeled my four off the back of the strip. The same thing happened today although I have yet to scratch my tickets for this week. The answer to the readers questions must be "NO", but who knows really? These tickets are produced by computer programs with random number generators. Who's to say that there have never been quirks in the "fail proof" system. It's not like it has never happened before! http://www.wired.com/magazine/2011/01/ff_lottery/

Play safe.

Doug

Wild 10s Still the Preferred Choice

Wild 10s improved its position over the past week during which time 60,000 tickets were sold and only 3 of the $10,000 Grand Prizes were claimed. Your chance to win one dropped from 7,700:1 to 7,200:1. The second rated game, Double Cash For Life, sadly surrendered one of its 4 Grand prizes after only exhausting 5% of its ticket float. Players need to remember that when buying a Cash For Life ticket, make sure that it is Game 1162 and not game 1159. The former is a good choice, the latter is a bomb.

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Wild 10s
2. Cash For Life 1162
3. $200 Million
4. Pick 3
5. Texas Hold'Em

Games to Avoid

• Quest For Gold Crossword
• Tetris
• Cash For Life 1159

$1 - $2 Game Update

Pick 3 continues as a good choice in this category. For those looking for a bigger Grand Prize than is offered with Pick 3, try Silver Gold.

$3 Game Update

Texas Hold'Em continues to get stronger in this group. It is substantially better than any other $3 game, at the moment. Two $75,000 Grand Prizes are left to be claimed.

$4 - $5 Games

Double Cash For Life continues to rate high based upon the three remaining large Grand Prizes. Even though one was lost last week, the game remains a good choice.

$10 - $20 Games

If the small but plentiful $10,000 prize does not motivate you to invest $10 in a game, the $200 Million game is also a good one. Neither of Classic White nor Extravaganza are bad plays, but the other two are better choices.

Comings and Goings

$3 Scrabble 1754 was added this week. This is a game with a float of 3,141,600 tickets that includes 3 - $75,000 Grand Prizes. The prize distribution looks good:
Grand Prize - 2.4%
Prizes less than Grand Prize and at least $100 - 3.4%
Prizes more than the cost of the tickets and less than $100 - 46.3%
Prizes worth the cost of the ticket - 12.9%
Profit - 35.1%

More Lucky #1733 and Bonus Banco #1641 were both retired. Bonus Banco was one of only four games that were initiated in 2012. The game still had 45% of its float left including 1 of the 6 -  $50,000 grand prizes. It was a poor game to play and I am thus pleased to see it go. More Lucky continued to be not a bad choice with 1 of its 3 - $75,000 Grand Prizes left to be claimed and 19% of its ticket float left when it was terminated.

The Grand Prize winners for the two retired games hailed from: North York (1 for each game), St Albert, Port Elgin, Scarborough, and Etobicoke.

Personal Play

My bad luck continues. I made a personal error this week when my usual store was sold out of Wild 10s when I arrived. Instead, I picked up four at a magazine stand in a shopping mall. I don't like doing that and I paid the price when I was shut out. Frank in Scarborough had terrible luck at a magazine store in the Scarborough Town Center.I should have learned my lesson from him. My cash rate is now 37% and my Return on Investment has now slipped to 75%.

Thanks to readers who have messaged me about their individual playing styles. One reader was ahead on $200 Million after having bought 16 tickets! I like to hear that.

I also received a message asking how I know how many tickets have been sold. The answer to the question is that I don't - I estimate the number based upon the numbers that the OLG publishes on the Outstanding Prize information sheet.

I need some luck and Independence Day seems as good as any day for me to turn things around.

Doug