Showing posts with label Wild 10's. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wild 10's. Show all posts

Monday, 18 August 2014

More Lucky Lines Remains the Champ - For What Its Worth

I was surprised to get back from vacation to see that More Lucky Lines was still for sale. I called the OLG to confirm the situation and they told me that it is indeed the case.  I can't be bothered to provide any details on the game's status as there is little chance that anyone will be able to find a ticket.

The OLG retires games in two ways. First, they can instruct sellers to return all tickets, including any in trays for sale. This would happen if there was a defect found in the game or fraud was suspected. The second way is to inform sellers that they are no longer permitted to activate any new packages but can continue to sell tickets that were activated previously. This would take place if the game was being retired for reasons of low sales, time on market, or a new version of the game coming on-line. In the case of More Lucky Lines, sellers were instructed on 01 August not to activate any new packages. What are the chances that you'll be able to find loose tickets for sale almost three weeks later? Well, I'm not going to spend any time finding out. If you run across them, scoop them up.


 MORE LUCKY LINES

Top Rated Games


  1. $3 More Lucky Lines - (16% of float left +/- 3%) 
  2. $5 Money Multiplier - (11%, +/- 2%)
  3. $10 Prestige (25%, +/- 7%)
  4. $1 Red Hot 50s (15%, +/- 1%)
  5. $10 Wild 10s (81%, +/- 2%)


Games to Avoid


  1. $10 Turbo Cash - Top three prizes all claimed. OLG has retired the game. 
  2. $5 Sapphire 7's - Top two prize levels claimed.
  3. $2 Crazy 8's - 4 of 5 top prizes claimed and 44% of float remains
  4. $3 Fruit Explosion - 2 of 3 top prizes claimed in first 34% of the float
  5. $3 Crossword 3206 - 1 chance in 2 million to win $50,000. Not encouraging. 


$1 - $2 Game Update

Red Hot 50s is the best choice but I don't like the $50 Grand Prize. Next best is $1 Bingo Express but best to look elsewhere.

$3 Game Update

Putting the top game aside, Scrabble 1799 is the best choice.

$4 - $5 Game Update

If you can find any Money Multiplier tickets, give them a try.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Classic Gold and Cadillac (poster CL66 likes this game) are poor choices. All others are playable, assuming that Turbo Cash is no longer available.

Comings and Goings

The horrible Tetris game was retired after the OLG had milked it for all it was worth. Shame on them for that. 20X Lucky was also retired with one Grand Prize remaining and 12% of the float.

Five new games have come on line since the last update. Fruit Explosion #1803 has unfortunately lost 2 of its three Grand Prizes early on in the history of the game. One to avoid. Instant Crossword #3206 is one of those jumbo games with over 20 million tickets issued. It is a bread and butter game for the OLG but it sucks for players. There are lots of small prizes but less than 1 percent of the game's revenue is returned to Grand Prize winners. Too low. Jacks are Wild #1787 is a well balanced game with potential to improve in the ratings. The one thing I don't like about the game is that there are 7 Grand Prizes and only 2 Second Prizes. Your chance to find a second prize is 1 in 1.4 million but only 1 in 400,000 to win a Grand Prize. Counter intuitive. Cross Tripler #1791 is not as good as its sister version #1766. It's OK but I don't like the 13.6% of game revenue that is returned to players who win their $5 back. That is the highest such number in the $5 group of tickets. Wild 10's #1785 has an imbalance towards the Grand Prize with 10.7% of game revenue going to those winners. There are 150 of them. You pay the price in smaller prizes with only 43.4% of revenue being returned to winners of more than $10 and less than $100. That is second lowest in the group.

Personal Play

One More Lucky Lines ticket was a dud.

More Lucky Lines and Money Multiplier are going to be nigh impossible to find. Prestige is next but I have played them before and am not enthused about returning to that game. I don't like playing $1 games so Red Hot 50s is out. That leaves me with Wild 10s which also happens to be CL66's top game. Let's give it a whirl.


Meanderings

More Lucky Lines is a true enigma. All four of the top prizes and all three of the second prizes remain unclaimed. At the same time, only 3 of the 105 -  $538 prizes remain outstanding and all 12 of the $500 have been claimed. What are the chances that this game could sell 85% of its float and not reveal any Grand Prizes? Less than 1 in a thousand. Outliers do occur and this is surely one for the record books. CL66 mentioned in a post that the floats are printed in tranches. Makes perfect sense. Another poster mentioned that with a house take of 35%, there is no need for any shenanigans by management. I agree. Further, the OLG is a public sector organization which means that it is run by Public Servants. All of this leads to the conclusion that we are just looking at a odd ball situation.

But I am left with the uncomfortable thought that they sold 2.5 million tickets for the game and then decided to retire it before any Grand Prizes were awarded. If I ran a raffle, sold tickets, and decided that there would be no winners, I think that I might get a visit from my local police officer.

So, why did the OLG make this decision and is it in the public interest or the interest of the OLG?  In such instances, the public interest should always come first. Lets look at some of the math:

If the OLG had sold every ticket for the game they would have generated total revenue of $3 x 2,949,000 tickets = $8,849,000. The house take was 35% or $3,097,290. I now make an assumption that the OLG pays a total of 15% of revenue to pay the sellers and the company that prints the tickets. That reduces the profit to $1,769,880. We need to take 84% of that number as that is how much of the float was ultimately sold. The estimated final profit is therefore $1,486,699.

Now lets look at the top seven prizes for the game. Those prizes totaled $245,000. If 84% of those prizes had been won, they would have cashed for $205,800 with $39,200 left outstanding. By retiring the game the OLG became the winners of the $205,800. That decision added a full 12% to the profitability of the game. That stinks and I can't help but think that the decision maker(s) knew exactly what they were doing.

I encourage readers to call the OLG call center and register their dissatisfaction. Poor old Darth deserves no less.

In Unity

Doug












Thursday, 25 July 2013

Wild 10's Remains the King

The recommended game revealed 9 of its Grand Prize winners last week while selling 47,000 of its tickets. The law of numbers has been in effect with this game since its debut. With 150 Grand Prizes available at the outset, they tend to be revealed at the same rate as the tickets are sold. When there is only 3 or 4 Grand Prizes, they can either be revealed early or late. When it's late, that's when prudent players should arrive at the party. At present, 44 Grand Prizes are left in Wild 10's and 378,000 tickets are left to be sold. Your chances to win one are now 1:8,600.

WILD 10s

Best Overall Rated Games


  1. Wild 10's
  2. $200 Million
  3. Fast 200's
  4. Extravaganza
  5. Pick 3


Games to Avoid


  • Quest For Gold Crossword


Note: I have no idea why this game has not been canceled. Less than 5% of its float remains to be sold and, predictably, sales are virtually nil. I'll bet that you could not find one of these tickets even if you wanted to buy one.


$1 - $2 Game Update

The games with a large number of lower grand prizes score well on my rating system. Pick 3 and Fast 200's are both good games to play. With a $1 and $2 price tag, why not?

$3 Game Update

Texas Hold'em surrendered one of its two remaining grand prizes last week. As a result, there is not much left in this category to play. If you must, Scrabble #1754 and Texas Hold'em are the best choices but I would look elsewhere for value.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Cleopatra, Cross Tripler, and Cash For Life are the best games in this category. None is a particularly good play at the moment.

$10 - $20 Game Update

With the exception of Classic White, each of the other three games is playable. I know, the cost is a problem. It is for me too.

Comings and Goings

Our friends at the OLG did us the immense pleasure of retiring Cash for Life #1159 and Tetris last week. Tetris is a particularly good example of OLG decision making that is not in the interest of players. All of the Grand Prizes had been claimed by 30 April in this game. They sold almost 800,000 of those tickets since that date! I guess if people want to play a game with no Grand Prize then that is their choice. Crazy!

The retirement of Cash for Life #1159 deserves a feather for the OLG cap. All of its grand prizes had been claimed by June 19th and 70% of its tickets were left to be sold. Further, it had to compete against Double Cash for Life which has to be an uphill battle. Double Cash for Life sold more tickets last week than the retired game did since becoming bereft of Grand Prizes.

A new game was also introduced this week: Black Jack Tripler. This game has 7 Grand Prizes of $100,000 representing 5.5% of the revenue base for the game. That is a good number. The game has a bit more winners for the price of the ticket than I like to see. The chances to win any prize are 1 in 4.18 (below average) and the chances to win a prize greater than the $5 ticket cost are 1 in 7.19 (below average).

Personal Play


My seller seems to be running out of Wild 10's. He only had 1 last week. I purchased it along with my first $200 Million.

The Wild 10's was a $15 winner, breaking off my losing streak. The $200 Million was a dud. My overall cash rate is now 37% and my total Return on Investment is 71%. I have been trending down for the past two months. I am now at a result that would be expected. So much for 2013 being my lucky year. Still, there is always next week.

There will not be a blog entry next week as I am headed off to Saratoga Springs, New York  for the best thoroughbred horse racing in North America. If you're a horse player and have never been there, I cannot recommend it any more highly. It is a little paradise on earth. I'm hoping to see at least one of the Triple Crown race winners in the Whitney Stakes prepping for the Travers Stakes in late August.

Keep on Truckin.


Doug