15X The Money Improves Its Placing

With 18% of the float remaining to be sold, the top rated game retains two of its three Grand Prizes. Players have one chance in 290,000 to find one of the $75,000 winners. It is the second rated game of money spent on the game that goes to the remaining Grand Prizes. You have one chance in 1473 to win any prize of $100 or more. The game returns 4.2% of its revenue to winners of $100 or more and less than the Grand Prize which is the best of all $3 games and third of any game currently for sale.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 15X The Money #1840
2. $3 Super Bingo #3018 -  Excellent small prize availability
3. $3 Crossword #3209 - Good well rounded game
4. $3 Keno #1416 - Another well rounded choice.
5. $5 Crystal 7's #1848 - Top rated non- $3 game

Games to Avoid

1. $2 Fast 200's #1817 - Hard to recommend against it with two winners being reported.
2. $1 5X The Money #1838 - 42% of Top Prizes left but only 23% of Prize Money for them. 
3. $5 Silver Gold #1831 - Lost all of its Grand Prizes this past week.
4. $3 Tetris #1832 - Another game devoid of Grand Prizes
5. $5 20X The Money #1841 - poor on all rated factors. 

Best Games To Play If You Only Want The Grand Prize

1. Fast 200's
2. Cash For Life
3. Cash Blast
4. Aces and 8's
5. Fortune

Games Devoid of Grand Prizes

• Silver Gold
• Tetris
• QFG Crossword

Comings and Goings

Aces and Eights was added this week. I'm always puzzled by the marketing associated with this game. This is the hand that Wild Bill Hickok was reputedly holding when he was shot in the head from behind. And this is a good thing because.....

Regardless, the game is selling well and is already among the top ten rated games.

No games were retired.

Personal Play

Ten 15X The Money tickets contained two winners of $11. With Fast 200's giving up two winners to Scott I may have to venture that way. Go with flow, as they say.

The Wrap

A poster has indicated that a new $25 game is about to come on line. Really? The current $20 game has been on sale for over 15 months and only half of its tickets have been sold. There's over 7 million more of those suckers to sell. I will find it interesting to see if a new shiny game of this sort can spark sales.

I must also note that CL66 and I both have 15X The Money as our top rated game. That's a first and it can only mean one thing - buy something else!

Happy Civic Holiday/Bank Holiday/Simco Day/ Emancipation Day to all.


Doug

Good-Bye Fruit Explosion - Hello 15X The Money

The former top rated game has been deleted from the Outstanding Prize list but not before I was able to absorb some serious loss on the game. Stepping up to take its place is 15X The Money. This game came on line along with sister games at the beginning of May. To date it has sold 79% of its float (+/- 2%) while retaining 2 of its 3 Grand Prizes. The game currently has the highest ratio of Top Prizes left when compared to the money for those top prizes of 1.77. It only returns 58.3% of its revenue to winners of less than $100 which is not very good. The game does return 6.5% of its revenue to winners of $100 or more which  is very good for a $3 game. At present, 7.3 cents of every dollar spent on the game is returned to the two outstanding Grand Prize winners. That is the second best number next to Fast 200's.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 15X The Money #1840 - New leader; can it stay on top?
2. $3 Tetris #1832 - One of two Grand Prizes left and 34% of the float. 
3. $3 Super Bingo #3018 - Best small prize return of any game currently for sale.
4. $5 Cross Tripler #1830 - The only $5 game on the list.
5. $3 Crossword #3209 - decent numbers and plentiful tickets.

Games to Avoid

1. $2 Fast 200's #1817 - Grand Prize or bust.
2. $2 5X The Money #1838 - Only 1 of 5 Grand Prizes remain and 48% of the float to sell. 
3. $5 20X The Money #1841 - Poor numbers on all factors. 
4. $1 10000 Spin #1802 - A dog on all scales. 
5. $2 10X The Money #1839 - Nothing to recommend. 

Games to Play If All You Want Is The Grand Prize

1. Fast 200's
2. Cash Blast
3. 15 X The Money
4. Cash For Life
5. Fortune

Games Devoid Of Grand Prizes

• QFG Crossword

Comings and Goings

Win Take All, Double Cash For Life, and Fruit Explosion were all deleted this past week. Double Cash For Life was a welcomed departure and although Fruit Explosion was the top rated game, only 8% of its float was left to sell and that always represents the end for most games. Win Take All was a surprise as it had 2 of its 7 Grand Prizes left and 22% of its float. I'm not really sure that an error was not made when updating the web site. That's happened before....

Personal Play 

The good news was that I found a trove of Fruit Explosions - bought all 22 of them. Results: 4 winners of $24. Yecch.

In total I cashed on 22 of the 68 tickets I bought and realized a return of 54%, roughly 5% less than I should have expected even eliminating all prizes of $100 or more.

The Wrap

Congratulations to poster Scott Robertson who hit a $200 winner on Fast 200's.

http://s1030.photobucket.com/user/scottydog1719/media/Mobile%20Uploads/DSC_0009_zps4jfbfsax.jpg.html


There is nothing I enjoy more than folks who read this blog, buy from the avoid list, and win! And I mean that. I have been quite diligent in following my own advice over the course of the past three years and I have yet to be rewarded. I think I'll pick up a couple of Fast 200's tickets this week out of respect to Scott.

The family of "Times The Money" games were all introduced at the same time (May 5th). Here are the to date sales figures:

$1 5X The Money - 1.5 million
$2 10X The Money - 1.1 million
$3 15X The Money - 2.5 million
$5 20X The Money - 2.4 million

Pretty clear what games scratch players prefer.

Any Lotto Max winners out there?

Doug

Fruit Explosion #1834 Remains Alive And On Top

Surprisingly, Fruit Explosion remains on the Outstanding Prize list and therefore remains the top choice. The game is on borrowed time and is the solid choice, if you can find any. Ticket sales have predictably dried up. Your chances to win the sole remaining Grand Prize are 245,000:1. I'd like to talk more about the game but I'm afraid that it is pointless. If you can find any - buy them.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Fruit Explosion #1834
2. $3 15X The Money #1840 - 2nd best ratio of Top Prize $ left to claim. 
3. $3 Super Bingo #3018 - 2nd best small prize ratio with an even rating in Top Prize $.
4. $5 Cross Tripler #1830 - Strong on both factors. 
5. $3 Keno #1416 - A weak 5th in the group. 

Games To Avoid

1. $4 Double Cash For Life #1170 - Huge Grand prize, nothing else, and no Grand Prizes remain.
2. $2 Fast 200s #1817 - A one in 800 chance to turn $2 into $200.
3. $1 5X The Money #1838 - Poor on all factors.
4. $1 10000 Spin #1802 - Nothing to recommend.
5. $5 20X The Money #1841 - Only 1 of 8 Grand Prizes remain and 24% of the ticket float to sell.

Games If All You Want Is The Grand Prize

1. Fast 200's
2. Fruit Explosion
3. Cash Blast
4. Silver Gold
5. Cash For Life #1167

Games Devoid Of Grand Prizes

• Double Cash For Life #1170
• Quest For Gold Crossword #3208

Comings and Goings

Money Multiplier and Keno #1415 were retired this past week. Money Multiplier was devoid of Grand Prizes and offered a Grand Prize of $100,000. With 17% of its float left, it was retired just about when one would expect. Keno was a good game that still had a Grand Prize left but it has a sister game that remains for sale and is also a good choice so --- no harm, no foul.

Personal Play

I was lucky enough to discover a stash of Fruit Explosions - bought ten and three 15X The Money. In what is becoming a trend, the supply had six winners that totaled a modest $24. I guess I can't complain but I would like to stumble upon a prize or two that gives my YTD results a boost.

In Conclusion

Congratulations to Shannon who hit with a $300 winner on Scrabble https://www.dropbox.com/s/hf9au10vhx5cqe2/20150709_220937.jpg?dl=0 . There are only 121 of those winners in the entire float of 2.7 million tickets. Good going Shannon and thanks for letting us know.

A note to Amber who was asking about Bingo 3016. I rated the game just outside of the top five and CL66 had it lower. As of today, it has recently lost another Grand Prize leaving 4 of 10 outstanding and 39% (+/- 2%) of its float left to sell. I now rate it 11th overall. While it is not at the top of the list, if she likes the game, I would not hesitate to try it.

This weeks story comes from Fort Erie http://bit.ly/1JXo253 . I feel sorry for the folks at the Fort Erie Race Track as they are in trouble and the cavalry is not coming. When the OLG set out on its "Modernization" mission, it cared not about Horse Racing. The slots at Fort Erie were being hammered by the Casino in Buffalo and the two Niagara casinos would sop up any players who preferred not to cross the border to gamble. When the Premier force fed the priority of the health of the racing industry into the OLG mandate, it was too late to change that direction. The OLG is not going to run slot palaces any longer and the folks who own the Niagara casinos are certainly not going to make a capital investment into the slots at Fort Erie as the OLG Spokesperson pointed out with tact. It's hopeless for them. Still, the interim funding being provided to the racing industry has kept Fort Erie race track afloat for the moment. For those who have never visited, it is a very pretty locale. The Prince of Wales Stakes will be run there on July 28th. Frank Stronach has decided to pursue the Canadian Triple Crown with his Queen's Plate winner, Sharman Ghost, instead of heading south to bigger three-year old races. He is to be applauded for deciding to support Canadian horse racing. The OLG should do as much.

The hunt for more Fruit Explosions continues.


Doug

Fruit Explosion #1834 - One Last Gasp

I have been unable to find any Fruit Explosion tickets over the past 10 days but some posters continue to report that they are out there, somewhere. One poster found 18 of them that contained exactly three $3 winning tickets. My condolences.

The game now has an estimated 8% of its float left or 250,000 tickets. The key to the high rating for the game is that the 8% of Top Prize tickets remaining are worth 20% of the money associated with those tickets. There remains one Grand Prize of $75,000 as well as two $10,000 prizes. I suspect that the game will be de-listed by the time of the next blog update so the time is now.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Fruit Explosion #1834
2. $3 15X The Money #1840 - Made a large move up the ratings this past week.
3. $3 Super Bingo #3018 - Don't forget the on-line component of the game. 
4. $5 Cross Tripler #1830 - Solid if not spectacular choice.
5. $3 Keno #1415 - High cash rate. 

Games To Avoid

1. $4 Double Cash For Life #1170 - Road kill. 
2. $2 Fast 200's #1817 - 2,900 Grand Prizes remain. Whup di- doo. 
3. $5 Money Multiplier #1828 - No Grand prizes left. 
4. $5 20X The Money #1841 - Poorly rated on all factors. 
5. $1 10,000 Spin #1802 - A stinker. 

Games To Play If All You Want Is The Grand Prize

1. Fast 200's - if you think that $200 is a Grand Prize. 
2. Fruit Explosion
3. Cash Blast
4. Cash For Life
5. Win Take All

Games Devoid of Grand Prizes

• Money Multiplier
• Double Cash For Life
• QFG Crossword

Comings and Goings

A new Scrabble game came on line this week. See the analysis by CL66 in the comments to last week's update. He ranks it 11th; I have it 15th. It is a typical $3 game.

There were no games retired this week.

Personal Play

Have I described the boost one gets when cashing in losing tickets only to find that there was a winner tucked in there that you did not identify? Well, the opposite happened to me this week. I thought that I had a $30 winning Cross Tripler ticket only to find out that it was a loser! I can report that the angst is more powerful than the glee.

In Conclusion

I received a direct message this week (not posted to blog) advertising a service that will sell me spells in order to increase my chances of finding a winning ticket. Really? People send money for that?

Thanks for the OLG Key Message document that was sent to me with respect to the de-activation of Double Cash For Life after the last Grand Prize was claimed. I used to contribute to similar documents in a past life so I get a great deal of pleasure reading such documents very closely.

A key message for consumers (us) is that the policy to de-activate games with Grand Prizes of $100,000 or more once the last Grand Prize has been claimed, "is a reflection of research that showed that customers are more likely to stop playing....". Research, you say....interesting.

Later in the document we learn that the policy was put into place in 2008. "The OLG conducted research with consumer groups and consulted with other lotteries...". I wonder who those "consumer groups" actually were? Maybe the Hamilton Branch of the Cash For Life scratch ticket brigade?

It seems to me that the OLG could actually measure this factor directly. In my opinion, almost all scratch ticket players buy on impulse and as a matter of habit. I suspect that there is no measurable difference in sales of games based upon outstanding Grand Prizes regardless of the amount of the Grand Prize. The factors that do impact have to do with the length of time that the game has been on sale and whether players like the structure of the game. Now, don't get me wrong --- I like the policy, it's just that I'm suspicious of the rationale. My argument is that the same policy should apply to all games. Comments welcome.

Here's a story from Global TV http://bit.ly/1LYwzYB that includes graphically the number of folks who have applied for self-exclusion in relation to where Casinos/Slot Palaces are located. Is it any wonder that the OLG wants to build new facilities in the downtown core of cities? Of course not. And we also know that they earn about 25% of their total profits from the very small number of problem gamblers. It's a tough dilemma but the Government of Ontario should at all times be up front and honest about these considerations.

Best.

Doug

Fruit Explosion #1834 Remains The Top Choice

Fruit Explosion is days away from being deleted. Posters who were lucky enough to find some have almost unanimously reported poor results. Still, that last Grand Prize remains outstanding and only 280,000 tickets remain to be sold. Perhaps it's time to move on to greener pastures. I'll be keeping my eye out for them but I'm not optimistic. The good news is that we are in a current phase where there are lots of $3 games that are highly rated. These are the bread and butter games for the OLG and I have to admit that the more tickets I get to scratch the more serene I become.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Fruit Explosion #1834 - 9% of the top prizes remain along with 21% of the TP money.
2. $3 Super Bingo #3018 - excellent small prize ratio. 
3. $5 Cross Tripler #1830 - Solid choice on all measurement factors
4. $3 Bingo #3016 - Decent small prizes and very positive prize $ ratio. 
5. $3 Keno #`1416 - Good choice and a slight preference over its sister version.

Games to Avoid

1. $4 Double Cash For Life #1170 - On life support. Please don't help to save it. 
2. $2 Fast 200's #1817 - Lots of small Grand Prizes. One chance in 800 to nab one. 
3. $1 $10000 Spin #1802 - Poor all around. 
4. $5 20X The Money #1841 - Nothing to recommend.
5. $5 Money Multiplier #1828 - Devoid of Grand Prizes 

Best Games If All You want Is The Grand Prize

1. Fast 200's
2. Cash Blast
3. Fruit Explosion
4. Cash For Life
5. Win Take All

Games Devoid of Grand Prizes

• Money Multiplier
• Double CFL
• QFG Crossword

Comings and Goings

The Interprovincial Lottery folks tossed in the towel on two $10 games this past week - Cadillac Riches and Bejeweled. Each game had about 30% of its respective float left to sell and sales for both games were poor given the length of time that they were on the market. I did not like either of them but CL66 was a proponent of both games. Perhaps our respective lists will begin to look more alike now that these two games are gone.

I have a problem with the new Cash For Life. When I expand the prize returns I calculate a return to players of 66.8%. The game sheet says that it is 65.85%. I have not seen a similar situation since Double Cash For Life and that one continues to perplex me as indicated in last weeks blog post. I'll be calling my friends at OLG tomorrow to discuss.

Personal Play

I fell upon a trove of Fruit Explosions along the 401 last week. I bought 13 and was quite enthusiastic. Of the first seven tickets, I had one winner of $9. I stopped scratching with the intention to complete the task later. The next day I scratched the remaining six and all six of them were winners! The chances of that are one in 1,400! How much return did I get for the six winners? Get ready --- $21!!! That's a $3 profit for the day. In total, the lot had 7 winners (54%) and returned $30 (77%), Lame-o!

In Conclusion

This article from the Gananoque Reporter is of interest http://bit.ly/1GNoyy8 . It's no wonder that the OLG is prevaricating on this one. The City of Kingston (the largest municipality in the Eastern Zone) told the OLG to take a hike. The OLG then went calling to Belleville whose city council gave the OLG a "thumbs up". So, the new operator will take over the 1000 Island Casino ($70 m revenue/yr), the Kawartha Slot Palace ($60 m revenue/yr) and invest in the construction of a new casino in Belleville.

Don't forget that all of this "modernization" is happening so that the OLG can increase their contributions to the provincial treasury thereby buying us all more knee operations. The current profit on the two existing plants is about $100 m/yr. With a new operator the OLG take will be reduced from 75% of revenue to 45% (est). That means that the total revenue will have to increase to about $220 m/yr in order for the OLG to break even. And they'll have to do this without having a casino in downtown Kingston. Who exactly will be responsible for the failure of their misguided "modernization" plan? No one. But we do know who will pay the price - the 571 current employees whose compensation package will surely be sliced by the new operator who will be functioning in a government protected no-compete market place. Stay tuned.

A shout out to my niece Leslie who won $50 this past week on Classic White.

Happy Canada Day to all. It's always a wild time here in Ottawa.


Doug