Thursday 9 July 2015

Fruit Explosion #1834 - One Last Gasp

I have been unable to find any Fruit Explosion tickets over the past 10 days but some posters continue to report that they are out there, somewhere. One poster found 18 of them that contained exactly three $3 winning tickets. My condolences.

The game now has an estimated 8% of its float left or 250,000 tickets. The key to the high rating for the game is that the 8% of Top Prize tickets remaining are worth 20% of the money associated with those tickets. There remains one Grand Prize of $75,000 as well as two $10,000 prizes. I suspect that the game will be de-listed by the time of the next blog update so the time is now.

FRUIT EXPLOSION


Top Rated Games


  1. $3 Fruit Explosion #1834
  2. $3 15X The Money #1840 - Made a large move up the ratings this past week.
  3. $3 Super Bingo #3018 - Don't forget the on-line component of the game. 
  4. $5 Cross Tripler #1830 - Solid if not spectacular choice.
  5. $3 Keno #1415 - High cash rate. 


Games To Avoid


  1. $4 Double Cash For Life #1170 - Road kill. 
  2. $2 Fast 200's #1817 - 2,900 Grand Prizes remain. Whup di- doo. 
  3. $5 Money Multiplier #1828 - No Grand prizes left. 
  4. $5 20X The Money #1841 - Poorly rated on all factors. 
  5. $1 10,000 Spin #1802 - A stinker. 


Games To Play If All You Want Is The Grand Prize


  1. Fast 200's - if you think that $200 is a Grand Prize. 
  2. Fruit Explosion
  3. Cash Blast
  4. Cash For Life
  5. Win Take All


Games Devoid of Grand Prizes


  • Money Multiplier
  • Double Cash For Life
  • QFG Crossword


Comings and Goings

A new Scrabble game came on line this week. See the analysis by CL66 in the comments to last week's update. He ranks it 11th; I have it 15th. It is a typical $3 game.

There were no games retired this week.

Personal Play

Have I described the boost one gets when cashing in losing tickets only to find that there was a winner tucked in there that you did not identify? Well, the opposite happened to me this week. I thought that I had a $30 winning Cross Tripler ticket only to find out that it was a loser! I can report that the angst is more powerful than the glee.

In Conclusion


I received a direct message this week (not posted to blog) advertising a service that will sell me spells in order to increase my chances of finding a winning ticket. Really? People send money for that?

Thanks for the OLG Key Message document that was sent to me with respect to the de-activation of Double Cash For Life after the last Grand Prize was claimed. I used to contribute to similar documents in a past life so I get a great deal of pleasure reading such documents very closely.

A key message for consumers (us) is that the policy to de-activate games with Grand Prizes of $100,000 or more once the last Grand Prize has been claimed, "is a reflection of research that showed that customers are more likely to stop playing....". Research, you say....interesting.

Later in the document we learn that the policy was put into place in 2008. "The OLG conducted research with consumer groups and consulted with other lotteries...". I wonder who those "consumer groups" actually were? Maybe the Hamilton Branch of the Cash For Life scratch ticket brigade?

It seems to me that the OLG could actually measure this factor directly. In my opinion, almost all scratch ticket players buy on impulse and as a matter of habit. I suspect that there is no measurable difference in sales of games based upon outstanding Grand Prizes regardless of the amount of the Grand Prize. The factors that do impact have to do with the length of time that the game has been on sale and whether players like the structure of the game. Now, don't get me wrong --- I like the policy, it's just that I'm suspicious of the rationale. My argument is that the same policy should apply to all games. Comments welcome.

Here's a story from Global TV http://bit.ly/1LYwzYB that includes graphically the number of folks who have applied for self-exclusion in relation to where Casinos/Slot Palaces are located. Is it any wonder that the OLG wants to build new facilities in the downtown core of cities? Of course not. And we also know that they earn about 25% of their total profits from the very small number of problem gamblers. It's a tough dilemma but the Government of Ontario should at all times be up front and honest about these considerations.

Best.

Doug











20 comments:

  1. I havnt been buying scratches lately but happened to pick up 1 scrabble ticket and BAM $300 baby ☺

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  2. I just read CL66 review on scrabble couldn't believe the odds were 1 in over 24 500!!

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/hf9au10vhx5cqe2/20150709_220937.jpg?dl=0

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    1. Nice going shannon .definitely a ticket worthy of a pic.
      I've only played a few assorted tickets over the last couple weeks with no exciting wins...the lottos are all big again so I'm throwing a bit extra towards those juicy grandprizes. .
      GL everyone

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  3. For those who check the winners list regularly, did the 2 grand prizes for Diamond 7's get claimed? I've found a place that had a couple Diamond 7's in their tray, but figured I'd ask here first before going through the winners list day by day for the month of June.

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    1. I was hunting these for a while after deactivation. I believe I was over a month in and the 2 GP were still there. Good luck!

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    2. That game has not been listed since the end of May. There were two Grand Prizes available at the time. A call to OLG HQ might garner more up to date information.

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  4. No lotto max winner again. They raised the bar to $55 million now...I wonder what it caps out at. The downside is less max millions now, which means less winners, which means more money for OLG to pull in. The max millions only went from 25 to 30, I would much rather more max millions prizes added than a bigger Grand Prize. 55 million is ridiculous.

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    Replies
    1. I just read that since July 17th, the lotto max will cap out at 60 million now instead of 50 million.

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    2. According to the breakdown on the Quebec Lotto website, there were approximately 50 million in total sales....but we only see $10 million added on to the next draw.

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    3. Around 12 million is allocated to $20 winners and free plays, around 2.5 million is allocated to the other winning categories.

      12 + 2.5 + 10(5 for jackpot, 5 for maxmillions) = About 25million.

      And payout is 48%, which is about 25 million.

      But yes, it's better for the consumer if the extras went to maxmillions instead of the jackpot.

      I'd still be excited if the jackpot was 10 million but there were 100+ maxmillions.

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    4. Agree..plenty of maxmillions gets me more inclined to throw extra $ towards the game..I'd rather see a greater number of new millionaires rather than just one lucky SOB.

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  5. OLG has to pay for the pan am games somehow, by redirecting your money.

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    Replies
    1. That is a charade that the OLG and all of its sister organizations love to play. Governments in effect "launder" the money they make from gambling proceeds through the sanitizing filter of something like the Pan Am games or building hospitals or local arenas.

      The truth is that the revenue from the OLG goes into the general revenue of the province just like LCBO profits, gas taxes, income taxes and fishing license fees. The costs of the Pan Am games are paid out of the same revenues but that evil gambling revenue needs the "cover" that something like the Pan Am games provides.

      I resist being too critical of this little bit of marketing as it happens in any jurisdiction that you'd care to mention.


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  6. $5 Crossword Tripler (pink) was deactivated last Friday - after being on the market for a usual 6 month run and for being an estimated 89% sold with only 1 grand prize remaining - it will be retired on or near August 10th - retiring tomorrow (or near then) is $3 Fruit Explosion and $3 Keno (green) - retailers must return these tickets by this date to receive credit for them, so you would be highly unlikely to find any after then - there is only 1 new ticket scheduled for a coming release: on July 27th we will see a return of $5 Aces & 8's (which you can see here http://s196.photobucket.com/user/one9six6/media/sampler%204.jpg.html ).

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  7. A question about Lottario,

    The odds of winning 4/6 numbers is the same as winning the early bird (4/4) right? They both require 4 numbers out of 6 drawn numbers. It appears that OLG decided to subtract the other portion of 4/6 (which is 2/6) and so the odds appear lower than the early bird but in reality early bird is basically 4/6 as well is it not?

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    1. I've been scratching my head over this question all day. Lottario provides two lines (one is an automatic quick pick) for a $1. The odds are calculated based upon getting two kicks at the can.

      The published odds are 366.4:1 to get 4 of 6 in the main game and 4,966.5:1 to get 4 of 4 in the Quick Pick. The published prices reflect that difference as well with 4 of 6 in the main draw paying about $25 and 4 of 4 in the Quick Pick paying about $270.

      Why the difference? It's because in the first case you are trying to match 4 of 6 drawn numbers whereas winning the quick pick demands 4 of 4 drawn numbers. So, to answer your question, although it appears to be the same thing, it is in fact not the same thing. In the main draw you can miss twice and still get four right. No such luck in the early bird.

      Make sense?

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  8. Question, how is Bingo #3016 looking? It was on the top rated list a few weeks ago but it's dropped off. Just curious about the drop. thank you for doing all that you do!!!

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    Replies
    1. Sorry.. I'm curious as to the drop as it looks like there are still quite a lot of the grand prizes left. I'm thinking I'm missing something or The app I use to see the grand prizes still available is wrong.

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    2. Amber,

      Bingo 3016 was sitting just inside the top five two weeks ago and just outside last week. One Grand Prize was claimed two weeks ago but none of the top twelve prizes have been claimed since the last update. It may again be inside the top five when I update all of the numbers tomorrow.

      If you like the game I would not hesitate to play it.

      Doug

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    3. I last rated it 44/100, making it 18th out of all 28 games - in the 12 categories i rate games on, it ranks in the top 10 in only 1 of them - there are 5 grand prizes available, tho thats within an estimated 3.72 million remaining tickets - besides these grand prizes, there are only 8 prizes worth more than $200 in there as well - the odds to win 1-5x on your $ with this game are average, but the odds to win more than $15 are 1 in 196 - i like bingo, but i play it lightly.

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