Thursday 18 July 2013

Wild 10's Rules the Roost

After a revamp of the current evaluation system, Wild 10's maintains its top billing. Your chances of winning a $10,000 Grand Prize are currently 8000:1. Last week saw 6 of the Grand Prizes claimed from the 50,000 tickets that were sold. This game has currently sold almost 70% of its ticket float which means that tickets should remain readily available over the next few weeks. If you are put off by the relatively low Grand Prize when compared to the price of the ticket, try $200 Million. Feedback has been positive from readers of this blog who have dabbled in that game.

Thanks go out to the two readers who posted messages to the blog concerning the claiming of Grand Prizes in the Double Cash for Life Game #1162. I update my information on Thursdays and the next day another prize had been claimed. A further Grand Prize was claimed during this past week leaving only 1 of the Grand Prizes in that game with fully 85% of the tickets left to be sold. Both the Cash For Life games are now poor propositions yet they are very popular games with players. It is always good practice to check at the store or at  the mobile site http://www.scratchodds.com/ or at the OLG site http://www.olg.ca/lotteries/games/viewInstantTicketInfo.do to ensure that nothing has changed with the game you intend to play. Take nothing for granted.



WILD 10s

Best Overall Rated Games


  1. Wild 10's
  2. $200 Million
  3. Texas Hold'em
  4. Fast 200's
  5. Extravaganza


Games to Avoid


  • Quest For Gold Crossword
  • Tetris
  • Cash for Life #1159



$1 - $2 Game Update

Twelve cents out of every dollar spent on Fast 200's is returned to the Grand Prize winners. This is good. The downside is that only one ticket in every 7.94 is worth more than the $2 you paid for it. It is the top rated game in this group.

$3 Games

Texas Hold'em continues to be a good game in this group. It is recommended for those who balk at paying $10 for a ticket.

$4 - $5 Games

Cleopatra is another game that flies under the radar. You have one chance in 200,000 to win $100,000 for a $5 ticket. Not bad.

$10 - $20 Games

It's interesting how slowly the $200 Million tickets are selling. The game was introduced in early April. About 25% of the tickets have been sold to date. By comparison, Super Bingo and Tetris were introduced at the same time. Over 80% of the $3 tickets for both of these games have been sold to date. I'm not the only one who can suffer from price resistance.

Comings and Goings

It's the dog days of summer. No new games and no retirements this week. We'll let the OLG staff have some vacation.

Personal Play


I erred last week when I stated that there was a 3% chance of having 8 losing Wild 10's tickets in a row. The actual chance of that happening was 6%. Well, I had another wipe out last week. I am now 0 for my last 12 tickets. There is a 1.6% chance of that happening. The strange thing is that my seller had to open another package of tickets for me last week. I got the last four tickets in the trip again. It defies all logic to think that there is something to that but we human beings innately look for patterns. That won't be happening to me again.

Wild 10's is now the worst game that I have played this year. I have cashed on 7 out of 27 tickets for a measly $120. My overall cash rate is down to 35% and my total return on investment is 72%. This is becoming intolerable!


Doug






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11 comments:

  1. Iliya18 July 2013 at 13:33

    Hi Doug,

    I enjoy your reads and suggestions very much.
    What is your input on classic white ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Doug Kellam18 July 2013 at 15:58

      Illiya,

      From what Jay has to say, Classic White is certainly a good game for him.

      According to my evaluation methods, it's an OK game. It is an interprovincial game which means that they don't provide as much information on outstanding prizes as I would like.

      The game began with 7 - $500,000 Grand Prizes and a ticket float of 7,874,000 tickets. As of today, five of those prizes remain after selling 37 percent of the tickets. Your odds to win one are now about 20% better than at the outset. Not bad.

      The one drawback to the game is that it has an inordinant number of winning tickets worth only the $10 cost of the ticket. As a result, you have one chance in 6.57 tickets to win more than your $10 investment. That is the worst such number for the $10 - $20 ticket group. By comparison, $200 Million has a winner for more than the $20 cost of the ticket in one of every 4.30 tickets.

      So, if you're OK winning your $10 back from time to time and if you want a game that gives you a better chance to win a Grand Prize than when the game was launched, then this is a good game to play.

      Good luck and let us know how you make out.

      Doug

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  2. Jay18 July 2013 at 15:21

    You keep saying Wild 10 is good but you're not the only one getting dry spells. Mine isn't bad at 0-5 but it doesn't feel like it. Where are those 10k winners! I avoided CFL this week which is my overall biggest loser. My play this week was 1 wild 10 got a dud and 1 classic white won me $50.

    It's funny the one I want to avoid is Classic White but I've only ever bought 3 tickets and I won $50 twice. 168:1 odds to hit and I've done it twice. I need more of that luck. So to the poster above, White has been good to me.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Doug Kellam18 July 2013 at 16:07

    Jay,

    Good on you to be on top of the odds. An informed player is what we should all strive to be. Now that you and Illiya are both looking at that game I may be tempted....

    I try to be disciplined and stick to my "system" but it is easy to get discouraged and more so when one is buying $10 tickets!

    Stay away from those Cash for Life tickets. I have no doubt that the OLG will flog those tickets for months to come. Don't buy them!

    It's funny because their own policy calls for the cancelation of any game where the prize is $100,000 or greater and all the Grand Prizes have been won. The Net Present Value of $1000/wk for life is $750,000. By that measure game #1159 should be retired. I'm going to look into that a little further.

    Continued good luck. I could use some myself.

    Doug


    ReplyDelete
  4. Jay18 July 2013 at 17:21

    I needed to hit the store so I cashed my $50 and there was 3 wild 10 left in the tray and I couldn't leave them to someone else. Dud, dud, $10. So it took me 8 tickets to finally get a hit albeit the min prize. I will probably alternate between 200 mill and wild 10 as my game plan in the following weeks.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Iliya19 July 2013 at 09:22

    Hello Doug And Jay,

    I dont know about you guys but it's kinda hard to convince myself to splurge 20$ on a ticket, what are the current chances to hit one of the remaining 2mill or 200,000 prizes?

    ReplyDelete
  6. Doug Kellam19 July 2013 at 16:22

    Lliya,

    I hear you. I bought one yesterday and my seller only had one Wild 10's ticket left - it was a dud. It feels wasteful to lost $20 on such an endeavour. Your chances to win $2 million are about 1.6 million:1. Your chances to win $200,000 are half that at 800,000:1. Both numbers were marginally better when the game began.

    Don't be in a hurry - the OLG will be flogging these tickets for months to come.

    Doug

    ReplyDelete
  7. Anonymous20 July 2013 at 08:01

    The problem with Classic white is that the medium prizes are very poor and even the ones above the cost of the ticket like Doug has already pointed out, there are 7 grand prizes so Ontario will get 2 maybe 3 grand prizes (its an inter provincial game) but the 2 grand prize redemptions so far have come from Ontario (Owen Sound and Mississauga) so its not a good game in my opinion.

    Double cash for life sucks right now with 1 grand prize left and close to 9 million tickets left might as well play lotto 649 instead. My focus right now is still on wild 10's, I buy the $200 million supreme game once in a while.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Doug Kellam23 July 2013 at 07:14

    Trinitron,

    I like your analysis. Thanks for posting.

    Doug

    ReplyDelete

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