Friday, 16 August 2013

Texas Hold'Em Reaches the Top Spot

I have tweaked my evaluation method to include a factor for the imbalance between the chances of winning a Grand Prize at the outset of the game and the current chances. The goal is to identify games where the odds are tilting towards today's player. The rating system is now the product of the current Grand Prize imbalance and the old game evaluation method. I'll write more about this another time.

Based on the new method, Texas Hold'Em is the new top rated game. This game currently has 1 Grand Prize left and 15% of its float left to sell. The game started with 3 Grand Prizes of $75,000. As of today, $.063 of remaining revenue will go to the lucky purchaser of the outstanding Grand Prize. This is fifth best of the current games. The current imbalance for the remaining Grand Prize is second only to Silver Gold.

Wild 10s continues to be well rated. This game, along with Fast 200s, is based upon a greater number of Grand Prizes of lesser value relative to the cost of the ticket. For this reason it is much more unlikely that an imbalance of outstanding Grand Prizes will be created as sales for the game continues.

TEXAS HOLD‘EM POKER


Top Rated Games


  1. Texas Hold'Em
  2. Silver Gold
  3. Wild 10s
  4. Prestige
  5. Cleopatra



Worst Games


  1. Bingo #3008
  2. Bonus Keno #1413
  3. Keno #1410
  4. Poker Multiplier
  5. Cross Express


Note - There are currently no games for sale for which all of the Grand Prizes have been claimed. If you like Bingo, be careful to buy game #3009 and not #3008.


$1 - $2 Game Update

Silver Gold is a good play with 2 of its 4 initial Grand Prizes currently outstanding and only 20% of its tickets left to sell. Fast 200s provides $.125 of total remaining revenue to the Grand Prize winners. That is the best number of any game currently offered for sale.

$3 Game Update

Texas Hold'Em is the top rated game. Scrabble #1754 is also a good choice.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Cleopatra has 2 outstanding Grand Prizes of $100,000 from the 7 original prizes included in the game. An estimated 18% of its float remains to be sold.

$10 - $20 Games

Wild 10s and Prestige are both playable games. One has 29 - $10,000 Grand Prizes left while the other has 12 - $1,000,000 outstanding. Seems a clear choice for the latter game (Prestige), no? Well, there are an estimated 260,000 Wild 10 tickets left to be sold whereas there are over 14 million Prestige tickets left to be sold. It comes down to personal preference.


Comings and Goings

A new Crossword game was introduced this week (#3203). There are now two Crossword games on the market. I recommend the earlier game (#3200). It has 5 of its 16 Grand Prizes left to be claimed after selling 80% of its tickets. The two games are otherwise very similar in terms of prize distribution.

Personal Play

I offer my thanks to readers who have posted comments to the blog of their experiences. Their opinions of the games vary wildly and all are valid. Trinitron had good success with Wild 10s while Bo Booboo calls the game "useless". I tip my hat to players who are checking the OLG website and making conscious decisions as to what games they are playing. That is what this blog is about.

I played 4 Prestige tickets last week. Two were winners returning $30. As a result, my year-to-date stats barely budged.

I included a tease in last week's blog concerning very good news for a reader. Well, given that this entry simply catches me up to date and is already filled with information, I'm going to ask you to wait until next week where I can give the news the headline treatment it merits.


Doug





9 comments:

  1. I bought 2 more Wild 10s this morning and finally got some winners: $10 & $50. Then I bought a 200 Mill and won $40. I don't usually buy on Fridays but it turned out nice.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I find the poker game to be frustrating. Constantly getting what would be an awesome hand in actual poker only for the house to get something insane like a royal flush. Too frustrating for my liking.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Akroeze,

      I have been spared your pain as I can't find any Texas Hold'Em tickets for sale.

      Doug

      Delete
  3. So I went to cash in my wins and bought another 200 Mill and won $60. I love that game.

    I haven't seen Cleopatra or WPT around for a long time. All I know is when Cleo first started I bought 8 tickets and won nothing and never tried gain.

    ReplyDelete
  4. I was determined to get some wild 10's this weekend so I kept going from place to place (convenience stores, gas stations, grocery stores etc) I went to about 11 places before I eventually found some. It was an esso and he had quite a few so I grabbed 10 for $100, had 2 wins of $60 and $45 for a $5 profit (for gas?) I will visit again next weekend.

    It shouldn't be this difficult to find wild 10's, if it was as freely available as Classic White which is everywhere it would be close to retirement by now

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Trinitron,

      You've been hot lately. Keep it up!

      Doug

      Delete
    2. I cooled down a little, I didn't want to go there next weekend and find out that everything was gone given how difficult it was to find. So I headed there on my way to work yesterday he had 7 left grabbed all 7 had 3 wins totaling $55 so a small loss but still well within my budget/limit.

      Will try other places again during the weekend

      Delete
  5. I know it is easy to see the remaining prizes on the lottery's own web site, but is there a place online where you can get those numbers that you are quoting about the float and how many percentage of the tickets have been sold?

    ReplyDelete
  6. Kevin,

    I get the original float numbers from the game sheet. As for the percentage of tickets left, I take the total of all prizes identified on the outstanding prize list and divide it into the number of prizes at the beginning of the game. The larger the number of listed prizes, the more accurate the proxy calculation. I have tested the method on two occasions and it works sufficiently well.

    I have received your question before and have included the same explanation in previous postings so readers know that I am not privy to any "inside" information. It is for this reason that I often use the term "estimated" when I discuss the number of remaining tickets.

    Thanks for the post.

    Doug

    ReplyDelete