Our old friend Bejeweled has gone from the penthouse to the outhouse in two short weeks. May 14th was a remarkable day for the game as 3 of the Top Prizes were claimed on the same day. Lucky winners in Oshawa, Bobcaygean, and Concord took away the loot. The last top prize was claimed this past week. The game has now become one to avoid as no top prizes remain and fully one quarter of the tickets remain to be sold. That equates to 400,000 tickets. What's worse is that all of the secondary prizes of $100,000 and $50,000 have also been claimed. As of today, one $10,000 prize remains. Lets see if the OLG moves to retire this moribund game.
Our recommended game is also teetering as both the second prizes of $100,000 have been claimed. I'm not crazy about this game as it is poor when it comes to minor prizes. Only one in every 7.45 tickets is worth more than the price of the ticket. It gets the nod due to those two juicy $1,000,000 prizes that remain to be claimed. You have one chance in 660,000 to snag one.
$3 Games - Scrabble ($75,000)
$4 - $5 Games - Instant Millions ($1,000,000)
$10 - $20 Games - Wild 10s ($10,000)
$3 Games - Scrabble - 175,000:1
$4 - $5 Games - Cleopatra - 345,000:1
$10 - $20 Games - Wild 10s - 7,800:1
My interest in Instant Games was sparked by a previous version of Instant Millions that was retired with prizes remaining outstanding. I wrote to the OLG at that time asking what criteria was used to make the decision to retire a game. The thorough response I received listed five criteria:
Number three is the key item. The sales of Instant Millions have been lagging of late and I find it odd that the tickets are becoming difficult to find. Some retailers have told me that they were asked to return unsold Instant Millions tickets to the OLG. This sort of information has proven to be very faulty in the past so I'm not convinced as I was able to find tickets in Toronto. More than 1.3 million tickets in this game remain to be sold. Retailers can't sell tickets that they are not provided with. Those 1.3 million tickets represent $6.5 million of revenue to the OLG but, and this is a big but, within those tickets are 2 - $1 million winners. It may be more profitable to the OLG to retire the game now rather than let those two winners be discovered.
It is this sort of potential conflict of interest that concerns me. Under the OLG Modernization Plan, Instant Ticket games will be privatized. I'm not sure how that would be different than it is today as contractors already make the tickets and sell them. The OLG is, however, accountable for how the games are managed. Will this remain the case under privatization? I'm not sure.
Two new games were introduced this past week. Neither $1 Wild 8s Doubler nor $2 Cherry Jubilee is particularly exciting at this point. Wild 8s provides 2.0% of total game revenue to the grand prize winners (6), has no prizes of more than $200 other than the top prizes, and provides 44.4% of total revenue to winners of more than the cost of the ticket and less than $100. By comparison, Cherry Jubliee provides 2.4% of revenue to the four top prize winners, 1.8% of revenue to winners of $1000 or more (excluding the top prizes), and 1.0% of revenue to winners of at least $100 and less than $1000. The same 44.3% of revenue goes to little winners and 11.5% goes to the dreaded "I won my Money Back" prizes. That figure rises to 12.5% for Wild 8s Doubler.
One should expect a better deal for a $2 ticket versus a $1 ticket and that is the case here.
My nervousness over the potential retirement of the top game caused me to go a little strong this past week. Ten Instant Million tickets included 3 winners totaling $35. My year to date cash rate has now dipped to 39% and my total return on investment to 84%. I need a $100 winning ticket to give my results a boost.
I can't conclude this week's post without mentioning the departure of Mr. Godfrey from the OLG. Premier Wynne has a vision as it relates to the OLG that differs from that of Mr. Godfrey, and by extention, Mr.'s McGuinty and Duncan. Instant Games represent a small part of the OLG mandate. The OLG Modernization Plan projects an additional profit of $180 million per year through privatization of lotteries, creating on-line ticket sales of games such as Lotto 649 and making Instant Games ubiquitous in our society.
Many of these ideas cause me concern and it appears that the same is true for the Premier. Foremost among my concerns is accountability. The OLG is a public institution and falls under all prevailing laws dealing with openness and public accountability. They measure up to those stringent standards, in my experience. If that virtue is put into question in a privatized environment, then count me out.
Here's hoping that a reader of this blog snags a big one this week.
Doug
Our recommended game is also teetering as both the second prizes of $100,000 have been claimed. I'm not crazy about this game as it is poor when it comes to minor prizes. Only one in every 7.45 tickets is worth more than the price of the ticket. It gets the nod due to those two juicy $1,000,000 prizes that remain to be claimed. You have one chance in 660,000 to snag one.
Best Overall Rated Games
- Instant Millions
- Scrabble #1730
- Wild 10s
- $200 Million
- Pick 3
Best Games to Win the Top Prize
$1 - $2 Games - Pick 3 ($500)$3 Games - Scrabble ($75,000)
$4 - $5 Games - Instant Millions ($1,000,000)
$10 - $20 Games - Wild 10s ($10,000)
Best Games With Pure Odds to Win Top Prize
$1 - $2 Games - Pick 3 - 8,400:1$3 Games - Scrabble - 175,000:1
$4 - $5 Games - Cleopatra - 345,000:1
$10 - $20 Games - Wild 10s - 7,800:1
Games to Avoid
- Tetris
- Cash For Life Blowout
- Bejeweled
My interest in Instant Games was sparked by a previous version of Instant Millions that was retired with prizes remaining outstanding. I wrote to the OLG at that time asking what criteria was used to make the decision to retire a game. The thorough response I received listed five criteria:
- Inventory for a game is completely sold out.
- All top prizes are claimed for games with $100,000 or greater top prize.
- Average weekly sales reflect significantly decreased customer demand and a new replacement game is scheduled to be launched or has launched.
- Quality issue with game in market.
- Security issue with game in market.
Number three is the key item. The sales of Instant Millions have been lagging of late and I find it odd that the tickets are becoming difficult to find. Some retailers have told me that they were asked to return unsold Instant Millions tickets to the OLG. This sort of information has proven to be very faulty in the past so I'm not convinced as I was able to find tickets in Toronto. More than 1.3 million tickets in this game remain to be sold. Retailers can't sell tickets that they are not provided with. Those 1.3 million tickets represent $6.5 million of revenue to the OLG but, and this is a big but, within those tickets are 2 - $1 million winners. It may be more profitable to the OLG to retire the game now rather than let those two winners be discovered.
It is this sort of potential conflict of interest that concerns me. Under the OLG Modernization Plan, Instant Ticket games will be privatized. I'm not sure how that would be different than it is today as contractors already make the tickets and sell them. The OLG is, however, accountable for how the games are managed. Will this remain the case under privatization? I'm not sure.
Comings and Goings
Two new games were introduced this past week. Neither $1 Wild 8s Doubler nor $2 Cherry Jubilee is particularly exciting at this point. Wild 8s provides 2.0% of total game revenue to the grand prize winners (6), has no prizes of more than $200 other than the top prizes, and provides 44.4% of total revenue to winners of more than the cost of the ticket and less than $100. By comparison, Cherry Jubliee provides 2.4% of revenue to the four top prize winners, 1.8% of revenue to winners of $1000 or more (excluding the top prizes), and 1.0% of revenue to winners of at least $100 and less than $1000. The same 44.3% of revenue goes to little winners and 11.5% goes to the dreaded "I won my Money Back" prizes. That figure rises to 12.5% for Wild 8s Doubler.
One should expect a better deal for a $2 ticket versus a $1 ticket and that is the case here.
Personal Play
My nervousness over the potential retirement of the top game caused me to go a little strong this past week. Ten Instant Million tickets included 3 winners totaling $35. My year to date cash rate has now dipped to 39% and my total return on investment to 84%. I need a $100 winning ticket to give my results a boost.
I can't conclude this week's post without mentioning the departure of Mr. Godfrey from the OLG. Premier Wynne has a vision as it relates to the OLG that differs from that of Mr. Godfrey, and by extention, Mr.'s McGuinty and Duncan. Instant Games represent a small part of the OLG mandate. The OLG Modernization Plan projects an additional profit of $180 million per year through privatization of lotteries, creating on-line ticket sales of games such as Lotto 649 and making Instant Games ubiquitous in our society.
Many of these ideas cause me concern and it appears that the same is true for the Premier. Foremost among my concerns is accountability. The OLG is a public institution and falls under all prevailing laws dealing with openness and public accountability. They measure up to those stringent standards, in my experience. If that virtue is put into question in a privatized environment, then count me out.
Here's hoping that a reader of this blog snags a big one this week.
Doug
"Those 1.3 million tickets represent $6.5 million of revenue to the OLG but, and this is a big but, within those tickets are 2 - $1 million winners. It may be more profitable to the OLG to retire the game now rather than let those two winners be discovered"
ReplyDeleteYour above statement has always been nagging me. Thanks for raising the issue. I would think this was illegal. You cant say there is less demand for these tickets. There is no stock with the retailers. I am slowly beginning to lose confidence in the OLG. How can we address this issue?
Damu,
DeleteIf I were to run a raffle draw and not give away the advertised prizes after selling the tickets, I suspect that would be illegal. I wrote to the OLG about this issue. In that letter I suggested that the criteria for canceling a game should all be objective. The third one on the list is not. In their response to me they indicated that they meet to discuss this subject and that my suggestion would be taken into account. As I see it, the people who make the decisions have a dual mandate: they have to respect the player and they have to maximize their return to the Provincial Government. In this case the two can come into conflict. I have a specific example of where this occurred in the past and I will write about it in next weeks blog posting.
Thanks for the note. I'd be interested to hear of any views that you may have on the subject.
Doug
Hi Doug,
DeleteI can't wait to read your next blog to know about this conflict. As i see it the question of Maximizing the profit should not be at the cost of denying the prizes offered. They are still making a profit after paying out all prizes. Earlier most scratch tickets had only one top prize and the tickets were continued to be sold even after the top prize was claimed and they were asked to stop selling. To overcome that they started offering more top prizes so they can keep selling. Sometimes I even wonder if all the top prize tickets are even printed. To remove this doubt they should collect all the unsold tickets and have them scratched by some neutral persons till all the prizes are exposed. OLG should not only be fair but also have to APPEAR to be fair.
Your thoughts
Damu
I just checked the OLG website and Instant Millions has been removed even though when last checked there were a couple of top prizes still to be won. But Tetris, CFL Blowout and Bejeweled are still available even after all top prizes have been won. Totally unfair and almost bordering on cheating.
DeleteDamu,
DeleteI saw that. I agree with your sentiments. I was not aware of the history that you outlined. It makes sense in explaining how we got to where we are. I believe that the OLG has acted against the interests of its customers in this instance.
Doug
Do you remember the game -- either last year or the year before -- where there was a detachable coupon at the bottom that you could use on slot play? You were able to scratch it and some of them were worth quite a bit, since the tickets I think were only about $3. I remember buying around $10 worth of tickets and getting $35 of slot play out of it. Did these ever come back? Or did OLG lose too much in people claiming them at slots? Always wondered.
ReplyDeleteEh,
DeleteI don't remember that game. It must have been before I started to pay attention. The current WS Poker game has for a prize a seat at the World Series of Poker and there was a game last year called the Battle of Ontario that included tickets to Leafs/Senators games. I doubt that the OLG would have regretted including free slot play as a prize. Slot Machines eat money at a lot faster rate than Instant Games, in my experience :-) How did you make out with the free slot play that you won?
I appreciate your note.
Doug