Wednesday 8 May 2013

Bejeweled Returns to Top Spot

Neither Bejeweled nor Instant Millions lost a top prize this past week but Bejeweled strengthened its position as the recommended game by selling more tickets. You presently have one chance in 120,000 to win one of the four $250,000 top prizes left to claim. Instant Millions continues as the strong second choice. You have one chance in 700,000 to win one of the two $1 Million top prizes. Bejeweled is a better play for smaller prizes with one in every 5.13 tickets being worth more than the $10 cost of the ticket. Instant Millions has a poor rating in this area of one in every 7.45 tickets. Just under 30% of the Bejeweled ticket float remains to be claimed which means that you should not have any trouble finding tickets.

BEJEWELED®

Best Games to Win the Top Prize
$1 - $2 Games - Pick 3
$3 Games - Scrabble #1730
$4 - $5 Games - Instant Millions
$10 - $20 Games - Bejeweled

Best Games to Win a Prize Greater than the Cost of the Ticket
$1 - $2 Games - Pick 3
$3 Games - Bonus Keno
$4 - $5 Games - Cross Tripler #1743
$10 - $20 Games - $200 Million

Best Overall Rated Games

  1. Bejeweled
  2. Instant Millions
  3. Scrabble
  4. Wild 10s
  5. $200 Million


Games to Avoid

  • Tetris
  • CFL Blowout


Comings and Goings

Two new games were introduced over the course of the past week. Each one is quite different from the other. $10 Wild 10s is a game like Pick 3 and Fast 100 where the idea is to provide a greater number of smaller Top Prizes. This is the first time I have seen this approach used in a $10 game. The Top Prize is only $10,000 for your $10 investment however there are 150 top prizes to be won. The game then scrimps on secondary large prizes by offering only 30 - $1000 prizes and 135 - $500 prizes. In total, 97.6% of the prizes of $1000 or more are awarded to the Top Prize winners and 16.5% of the total prize pool is reserved for winners of $1000 or more, which is a high rating. What are you giving up? The prospect of a large prize.

The other new game is $3 Texas Hold'em Poker. I expect this game to be popular given its premise, much like Tetris has proven to be. This game has a more standard breakdown of prizes with 66% of the total prize money for prizes of $1000 or more going to the three Top Prize winners of $75,000 each. The prizes distributed to the winners of $1000 or more prizes represents 6.7% of the total prize payouts. In other words, it is a more democratic game and I rate it as the third best $3 game to play behind Super Bingo and Mahjong, at this point in time.

Personal Play

I am unable to explain why I fail to follow what I have learned to be the only way for me to play. Every time I deviate from the plan it results in punishment. This past week I bought 4 Bejeweled tickets with the result of one $10 winner - a loss of $30. Instead of taking my punishment and moving on I purchased a fifth ticket while out of town. It was a loser. I then bought a $5 ticket in another game - you guessed it...loser! I need to stick to what I know works best for me. Others have differing approaches and if it works for you, great. My cash rate is now down to 40% and my total return on investment has dipped to 85%.

The punishment for my lack of discipline is to cut back to two tickets this week. I know that if I acknowledge my sins and apply my own corrective action, that lady luck will forgive me.

Here is a link to a story that recently ran in the Toronto Star http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2011/02/04/toronto_man_cracked_the_code_to_scratchlottery_tickets.html?app=noRedirect
The problem was inherent with the Scrabble and Crossword games. In those games you can see the numbers or letters and you scratch them when they match the numbers or letters on the top. The tickets are made by contractors and they follow some sort of algorithm in their production. As you can see, there was a flaw in the program. Good on the OLG for acting quickly but it just goes to show you that we should not take everything we are told as the gospel truth.

Happy Scratching.

Doug





6 comments:

  1. Hi Doug
    Sorry to hear about your week with bejewelld those tickets drive me nuts I've spent at least 600 on them and never won more then 50 on 1 ticket, I really wonder if theres any prizes higher then that...lol
    Doug can you please tell me the odds on the new wild 10's even tho the grand prize is much lower then bejewelld are the odds better or not? I have no clue where to find the odds on the scratch tickets since I don't have a fancy phone to download an app....lol I bought 5 tickets today and won 60.00 so I'm up 10....tomorrow I'm buying 100.00 dollars worth and i'll let you know how I do, I also will have to check out the new poker tickets I seen them but I usually wait for your expertise on the game before I buy. I was just excited too see a new 10 game today before I read your blog...lol
    The woman at the convience store today said that every time a new game comes out theres lots of winners and then it dwindles with the latter batches, who really knows what OLG does its a mystery and since your so dedicated to bejewelld I hope you win one of the top prizes.
    I hope bejewelld next week works out better for you.
    Please let me know about the odds when you can.
    Thanks
    Shell

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  2. Shelley,

    The two games compare as follows:

    Wild 10s Bejeweled
    Chances to win any prize 3.42:1 3.18:1
    Chances to win > $10 5.79:1 5.13:1
    Chances to win > $100 330:1 146:1
    Chances to win Top Prize 9000:1 120,000:1

    Wild 10's keys on the 150 Top Prizes of $10,000. Bejeweled provides a better chance for all prizes other than the top prize.

    I would be a little wary of what the convenience store employee says. She may be influenced that new games sell quickly after they are introduced. Higher sales produce more winners. This is what she may be seeing.

    Best

    Doug

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  3. Shelley,

    Sorry about the formatting. Lines should read as follows:

    Chances to win any prize: Wild 10s 3.42:1, Bejeweled 3.18:1.

    Doug

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  4. Hey Doug, been following your blogs for a while and trying my luck with Bejeweled. Usually buy 2 at a time, lose, then buy 2 more lol. Just wanted to know how many BEJEWELED tickets are left to be sold? Also, thoughts on JACKS ARE WILD and CLEOPATRA? which one is better. Keep the good info coming and thanks!

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    Replies
    1. Nick,

      I estimate that there are still 480,000 Bejeweled tickets left to be sold from the initial float of 1,528,800. Scarcity of tickets begins to become an issue once people begin to become bored with the game. The OLG then begins to send out fewer tickets to sellers and a negative reinforcement cycle begins that ultimately results in the withdrawal of the game. That is not the case with Bejeweled at this point in time as the tickets are selling at 50,000 per week. The OLG did introduce a new $10 game this week, Wild 10s, and this will likely impact upon the sales of Bejeweled.

      Jacks are Wild is a better game than Cleopatra from the point of view of small prizes. In Jacks are Wild there is one chance in 3.85 of a cash and one chance in 6.08 of a cash for more than the $5 cost of the ticket. In Cleopatra, you have one chance in 4.18 of any cash and one chance in 8.76 of a cash for more than the $5 cost of the ticket.

      Jacks are Wild has two of its seven $100,000 prizes left to be claimed. Your chances to win one are 1 in 840,000. By comparison, Cleopatra has six of its seven $100,000 prizes left to be claimed. Your chances to get one of those are 1 in 290,000.

      If you buy tickets in pursuit of the Top Prize, then Cleopatra is the choice between these two games. If, on the other hand, you prefer "action" by getting more cashes, then Jacks are Wild is a better choice.

      Thanks for visiting the blog.

      Doug

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  5. Hi Doug
    Well I decided to buy 12 bejewelled tickets and out of the 120.00 I spent I won 60.00....OMG so now you don't have to feel so bad from your last week of losses...
    I would honest think you would win alot more in that game but not the case....what are the odds on the 20dollar ticket? some weeks I'm up on that game and others weeks its a bust....
    I hope you do much better then me this week...
    Shell

    ReplyDelete