Christmas Instant Game Ratings

What follows is my current evaluation of all Instant Games. Remember that my ratings focus upon the percentage of Grand Prizes remaining in a game versus the percentage of the float that I estimate remains to be sold.

For example, More Lucky Lines, the top rated game, has all of its Grand Prizes of $75,000 left to be claimed and I estimate that 83% of the ticket float has been sold. That means that your chances to win a Grand Prize are 4 times greater than when the game began. Still unlikely, but these games give you the chance to play games with the best chance to win. The odds never change in the Lotto Games, only the size of the Grand Prize.

With that in mind, here are the current ratings as you pick up tickets for stocking stuffers:

$3

2144

More Lucky Lines

Top Rated

$10	2170	Cross Deluxe	Very Good
$10	2054	Royale	Very Good
$3	3027	Bingo	Very Good

$20	2052	Supreme	Good
$10	2129	25x Multiplier	Good
$10	2130	Bigger Spin Win	Good
$10	2162	Super Money	Good
$5	2093	Cross Tripler	Good
$5	2086	Ruby 7's	Good
$5	2126	Sizzling 5's	Good
$3	2142	Pac Man	Good
$3	2080	Scrabble	Good

$50	2159	Classic Extra	Neutral
$30	2051	Multi Million	Neutral
$30	2055	Triple Million	Neutral
$10	2157	Cash Out	Neutral
$5	2138	Bingo Doubler	Neutral
$5	2098	Bling	Neutral
$5	2135	Cross Tripler	Neutral
$5	2164	Holiday Win	Neutral
$5	3101	The Big Spin	Neutral
$3	3029	Bingo	Neutral
$3	3227	Cross Word	Neutral
$2	2149	Movie Money	Neutral

$20	2156	Celebrate 2020	Poor
$20	2169	Festive Fest	Poor
$10	1926	Instant Gift Pack	Poor
$4	1175	Cash For Life	Poor
$3	2167	Peppermint	Poor
$3	2158	Strike Spare	Poor
$2	2161	Ontario Love	Poor
$1	2152	Fiesta Treas	Poor
$1	2160	Jewel Jackpot	Poor

$3

3225

QFG Crossword

Very Poor

$2

2163

Stock Stuff

Terrible

If you're out looking for inexpensive tickets, avoid the Xmas themed Stocking Stuffer game. It's the worst game still being sold. Instead, choose 3027 Bingo or More Lucky Lines (if you can find any).

One last caution: if you're in the market for expensive tickets, exercise caution with the $50 Classic Extravaganza. The OLG is promoting this game with advertising. The audience may be under the impression that players receive seven $10 tickets for $50. This is not the case. If it were, I'd be asking my mom for an advance on my allowance to buy more. The game is just like any other. Your chances of winning a prize are 1 in 3.75 and the house take is 29.95% of all sales. There are seven tickets to scratch but the outcome for the package is predetermined. There are multiple games on each ticket which means that there is lots of action before you learn if your package was a winner. It is akin to getting more bang for your buck with a $5 Bingo Doubler versus a $3 Bingo ticket. Now, if you happen to have 7 grandkids and you want to give them the impression that Grandpa bought each of them a $10 Scratch Ticket, then by all means buy a package, open it up, and distribute the tickets as you please. Just don't be under the illusion that doing so is the same as buying 7 individual $10 tickets in other games. Cross Deluxe or Royale are the best games for the high end player. 

Merry Christmas to everyone. I'll be back next week with a breakdown of my mission to find and scratch as many More Lucky Lines tickets as I can find. If you can find any in your store, pick them up. The retailers will tell you that the game has been canceled. Not true - keep hunting. 

Doug

Keno #1418 Remains The Top Pick

This is the 200th update of this blog which I started four years ago. It will also be the last update with a Scratch and Win focus. Over the lifetime of the blog I have learned a lot both by looking under the hood at the OLG and from the many posters who have contributed to this community project. I thank all of them for their interest. In total, there has been over 450,000 visits to the blog and I'm pleased with how often it shows up on Google when searching about the OLG.

The truth is that updating the blog has become more of a chore than a pleasure. That's natural and when that happens, well, I think we would all agree that it is time to move on. I refer all visitors to the previous update for a list of other resources available for players who want to use a modicum of strategy in deciding what games to play.

I will, however, continue to post in this space on the broad subject of the OLG and its fortunes. My focus will be on their Modernization Plan, which is sputtering, to be kind.

After four years of updating the blog, this is what I have learned:

1. Never buy scratch tickets for games that are devoid of Grand Prizes. Tools are available to ensure that is the case.
2. Always check your tickets, winners and losers, at the checking machines before throwing them out or cashing them. 
3. Don't rely on lottery information provided by your local seller unless you know that he/she is knowledgeable. 
4. Don't hesitate to call the OLG with any concerns or questions you may have. Their call center staff is first class. 
5. Play the games you like with the proviso of #1. 

Although I retain a smidgen of doubt that "random distribution" can have more than one meaning, I can point to no evidence that the printing and distribution of tickets is anything other than random in the broadest sense of the word. One poster summed up the subject well when he asked what possible reason the OLG would have to tinker with a business model that is already so heavily stacked in its favour. Makes sense.


Y'all be good now.


Doug

Scrabble #1861 Ascends the Throne

The pursuit of the elusive CFL 1161 ran aground as many posters predicted. The OLG is the proud winner of the $675,000. Replacing it is #1861 Scrabble. This game rates well as two of its three Grand Prizes remain to be claimed with only an estimated 17% of its float left to sell. That is still slightly over 1 million tickets so you should be able to find the game at your local retailer. A warning that all of the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place prizes have been claimed. There are three $5000 prizes left in addition to the two $75,000 prizes.

Also on the plus side, the game offers one cash in every 3.33 tickets which is the best of any game. On the downside, 12.9% of total revenue is returned to folks who "win" the cost of the ticket. That is the second highest of any game.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Scrabble #1861 - Strong numbers. 
2. $3 Crossword #3210 - Only 5% of float left. 
3. $3 Crossword #3212 - Both Crossword's are good choices. 
4. $3 Keno #1417 - 4 of 5 Grand Prizes left and only 60% of the float. 
5. $10 Diamond #1781 - The best of the expensive games.

Games to Avoid

1. $1 Red Hot 50's - Save your $1 for a person who needs it. 
2. $1 Hit 100 - Another terrible choice. 
3. $10 Classic White - Max prize is $1000 other than one $50k prize. For $10!!!
4. $4 Cash For Life #1171 - not like its sister version. 
5. $2 Golden 7's #1824 - Bad numbers across the board.

Game Devoid of Grand Prizes

• Tripling 7's
• Classic White

Comings and Goings

It was clean-out week at the OLG. All five Christmas games were retired in addition to More Lucky Lines and Cash For Life. Both Instant Gift Pack and Spectacular went down with over 20% of their respective floats left to sell. Each had one Grand Prize left to yield.

New on the scene  is 7,11,21. See CL66's review. I rate it 14th of the 26 games which is right about where new games should start: in the middle. The game looks like it has potential to me. The only thing I don't like is that you have a better chance to win the Grand Prize than you do either the  second or third prize. I prefer games whose prize structure looks like a pyramid.

Three Grand Prizes were claimed this past week. One each for: Money Multiplier, Tripling 7's, and 250 Golden. We're all watching to see if the GTA snags another Grand Prize in that game.

Personal Play

Nothing to report

Post Script

Differing points of view from two communities on the prospect of a casino:
http://www.nugget.ca/2016/02/08/casino-needs-sober-second-look
http://tvo.org/article/current-affairs/the-next-ontario/thousand-islands-olgs-big-plans-for-gananoque-

From the articles I have read, the projected revenue increases outlined in the OLG's vaunted "Modernization Report" are failing to materialize. If that continues, who will be responsible? Certainly not Misters Godfrey and Phillips who are, at this very moment, busy gutting the Ottawa Citizen to the glee of the US Hedge Funds that own it.

My last item for this week was a press release from the OLG that wasn't picked up by any outlet that I could find: http://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/olg-wants-you-to-play-smart-568035791.html .

The OLG likes to describe itself as "A global leader in responsible gaming." Who recognizes them as such, you ask? Why, the association of casino operators. Really? How about outsourcing Play Smart initiatives to NGO groups likes the Responsible Gaming Council? If you can outsource all of the casinos, why not that?

My research into Break Open tickets continues. Stay tuned.

Doug

Classic Ruby #1792 Reaches The Top

The top rated game, Bonus Cash For Life, has been deleted from the Outstanding Prize list. It is retired with one big juicy $675,000 prize left to claim and 830,000 tickets left to sell. The OLG wins again!

Ascending to the throne is Classic Ruby #1792. This is an inter-provincial game that has not generated much discussion in the comments to previous blog posts. 64.3% of its total revenue is returned to winners of less than $100. That is the best of any game currently for sale. Its ratio of top prizes claimed to top prize money claimed is right on 1.00. The difference between top rated games is narrow at the moment. There is not much to choose between any of the games. For those who avoid inter-provincial games or shy away from $10 games, 20X Lucky, Diamond 7's and Cross Tripler are all tightly packed alternatives.

Top Rated Games

1. Classic Ruby #1792 - Excellent small prize availability and lots of tickets left. 
2. 20X Lucky #1808 - Highest current ratio of Top Prizes vs Top Prize $ at 1.36.
3. QFG Crossword #3208 - Good ratings on both factors and selling like hotcakes.
4. Diamond 7's #1822 - Solid choice.
5. Cross Tripler #1810 - Nothing to choose between this game and Diamond 7's.

Games to Avoid

1. Double Cash For Life #1170 - worst small prize availability of any game. Negative ratio. 
2. Black Jack #1804 - Devoid of Grand Prizes; terrible ratio of Prizes to Prize $ left to claim. 
3. Bejeweled #1786 - Another Grand Prize claimed this week. 
4. Hit Jackpot #1818 - Poor ratings on both factors but a poster hit for $250 this past week!
5. Money Multiplier #1828 - very poor small prize availability at 55.7%. 

Games With Presently The Most $ Going to GP Winners From Each Ticket Sold

1. Double Cash For Life
2. Fortune
3. 20X Lucky
4. Bejeweled
5. Extraordinary

Games With No Grand Prizes Left To Be Claimed

• Words With Friends
• Crossword #3207
• Black Jack

Comings and Goings

In addition to the highly rated Bonus Cash For Life, Scrabble #1821 was retired this past week. It was a poor game that had all of its Grand Prizes claimed. It was time for that game and its 250,000 remaining tickets to be put to bed.

New to the scene is the $1 Bingo Express. These games do not sell well, they suck, and there are presently four different ones for sale. CL66 has posted his review of the game as the last comment on last weeks blog update.

Personal Play

Another good week with two of three Quest for Gold tickets winning for a total of $40. The Classic Ruby tickets contained only one winner from 4 and that was worth $15. My YTD Return on Investment has jumped from 41% to a more respectable 63% over the past two weeks, Lets keep it going.

In Conclusion

Poster Steve had a response to my review of Lottolishous in which he clarified a mistake that I had made. Anyone interested should look through the comments to last weeks update. Another example of how I fail to understand how the internet works is that I received an email from something called Icelotto this week. This is a concept like Lottolishous but it covers lotteries in Europe, the USA, and even our own 649 lottery. Is it coincidence that I received that message the very week after I was poking around a similar site? I doubt it but I'm at a loss to explain what the heck is going on.

It looks like many of the readers of this blog are participating in the Living the Life "raffle". Commentators have established that the OLG has only sold 1/3 of the total tickets available for the draw yet all the detailed prizes will be awarded at 9:00 PM this evening. I'm picking up a $20 ticket with seven combinations myself to add to the three that I had purchased earlier. Even though the chances of snagging one of the 55 Top Prizes remains small, I will have a one in 10 chance to win $20 by matching the last two digits on each ticket. The OLG is going to lose money on this game and when that is the case, it must be a good game for players.

I am not a big fan of the Sunshine List. Perhaps for top end executives but $100,000 strikes me as being too low a cutoff. Maybe if the names were deleted I'd feel better about it all. Still, here is the breakdown for OLG staff:

> $500,000 - 2
$300,000 - $400,000 - 1
$200,000 - $300,000 - 12
$175,000 - $200,000 - 17
$151,000 - $175,000 - 31
$126,000 - $150,000 - 44
$100,000 - $125,000 - 177

That's 268 total staff earning more than $100,000. I acknowledge that I have no idea how complex it is to run the OLG but what bothers me is the thought of how many of them are busy trying to figure out how they can get rid of the regular staff whose names do not appear on this list (AKA - Modernization). The guy whose title indicates that he is steering that listing ship made $227,000 last year. How much did the average chump who fixes the malfunctioning slot machines earn? He's the one who'll be losing his job when the casino he works for is "modernized".

Doug

Holiday Spectacular #1816 Gets Its Day In The Sun

Even though Holiday Spectacular is down to one Grand Prize from its original three, it takes over top spot given that only 14% (+/- 2%) of its float remains to be sold. You presently have one chance in 120,000 to get the last prize. The game has also reached its deactivation date meaning that retailers can no longer activate new packages for sale. Will a player manage to snag the last prize somewhere or will the OLG claim it indirectly? Time will tell. At present, $.21 of every dollar spent on the game will go to that Grand Prize winner.

Top Rated Games

1. $10 Holiday Spectacular #1816 - One Grand Prize left and the clock is ticking. 
2. $4 Bonus Cash For Life #1168 - Two Grand Prizes left, 2 million tickets left to sell. 
3. $4 Double Cash For Life #1170 - $1,350,000 prize for a $4 play. 
4. $10 Fortune #1779 - Nine $1 million prizes left. Can't find these tickets in my area. 
5. $2 Holiday Cashout #1812 - 450,000:1 to win $35,000. All three Grand Prizes remain and half the tickets are sold. 

Games to Avoid

1. $5 Cash In #1807 - Largest prize left is $2000.
2. $3 Crossword #3206 - Three $10,000 prizes left and 1.4 million tickets. 
3. $3 More Lucky Lines #1794 - I'm tired of beating this drum. Turns out the OLG can peddle these losers. 
4. $1 Lucky Lines #1770 - De-Activate these dogs, please!
5. $3 Crossword #3207 - 1 chance in 2.7 million to win $50,000? No thanks. 

$1 - $2 Game Update

Holiday Cashout is a remarkably good game for $2. 

$3 Game Update

Cashingo #1820 is new and is the best rated of the $3 games. 

$4 - $5 Game Update

Bonus Cash For Life #1168 still tops the list but I'm tired of losing with it. 

$10 - $20 Game Update

Instant Gift Pack has become a poor choice. Avoid. 

Comings and Goings

Four new games have come on line to start 2015. Check out CL66's reviews on the games in the comments to last week's update.

Double Cash For Life offers a lump sum payment of $1,350,000 which is attractive for  $4 investment but the 40.4% return to winners of more than $4 and up to $100 is the lowest of any game for sale. The cash rate of 1 in every 5.83 tickets for more than the cost of the ticket is also good. How can both things be true? The answer is that there are many small prize winners and not much else other than the Grand Prizes. 

The new Cross Word Tripler #1810 has potential but the older version (#1791) is a better choice at the moment. 

Cashingo #1820 is an odd game in that there are no prizes offered between $500 and $75. The prize structure at the top end is good for a $3 game. I did not get a chance to play the older version of the game as its ticket became scarce when it became a recommended game. I may try some of this version early on. 

Diamond 7s #1822 is hot off the press. Not crazy about the low Grand Prize of $77, 777 but the game does return 51% of its total revenue to winners of more than $5 and less than or equal to $100. That's a big plus. 

Personal Play

Started the year out with two Crossword Triplers and two 20X Lucky tickets. Also threw in a Lotto Max just for fun. I struck out on the 20 X Lucky Tickets but both Triplers were winners returning $15. Lotto Max won a free ticket. I must confess that the ticket that won $10 was one that I thought was a loser until I checked it at the store. Based on blog commentators, I'm not the only one to whom this happens. Always always always check your losing tickets with a scanner in the store. 

In Conclusion

There have been several media stories lately of mistake tickets showing up. Check the comments to last weeks posting for more. Here's one:

http://news.yahoo.com/not-fast-mexico-says-lottery-winner-213732609.html?soc_src=copy

I love these stories as they remind us that these games are not foolproof and forums like this one can serve to keep interested folks updated on glitches as they occur. 

I had occasion to call the OLG yesterday concerning the new Double Cash For Life game. The game sheet indicates that 69.63% of total revenue is returned to players. As part of my analysis of new games I always multiply out the prize structure for my purposes. According to my calculations, the return rate for the game is 64.6%. This is more in keeping with games that cost $4 or $5. I spoke to a very helpful young woman at the OLG. She indicated that someone would call me back within 48 hours. I think that there is a typographical error on the game sheet. I'll let you know the outcome next week. 

I hate delving into the political arena but I would recommend that more businesses and government departments set up their call centres in communities outside of major metropolitan areas. The OLG Centre is in Sault Ste Marie and I have never failed to have a positive experience when I call them. It makes sense to me that there are young people living in such communities who would choose to stay there instead of moving to the city if they could obtain employment. I imagine that the OLG jobs are good jobs and that the people who hold them, appreciate them. I also suspect that they stay with their employer for longer periods of time thereby becoming better assets to the employer. Frankly, I don't see a downside. 

Best to all. 

Doug

Fruit Explosion Finished - Bonus Cash For Life #1168 Takes Over

The vain pursuit of the last Fruit Explosion Grand Prize has ended with it most likely belonging to the OLG itself. For those who have squirreled some away ( a friend has eight that he intends to scratch on Christmas morning), the last recorded chances for you were 182,000:1.

The new top choice is Bonus Cash For Life #1168. The game offers four of its five initial Grand Prizes of $675,000 after selling almost 60% of its float. The Cash For Life games are top heavy and my evaluation system rewards that fact. Your chances to win any prize larger than the cost of the ticket are 1:6.74 which is pretty good for the $4-$5 group of games. The advantage this game offers is that the "Bonus" comes in the form of a higher overall return to players than the cost of the ticket would indicate. In general, $5 games return 66-67% of the games revenue to the winners. Bonus Cash For Life returns 69.9% which is equivalent to the $10 - $20 games. Barring the loss of more than one Grand Prize, this game is poised to rule the ratings for several weeks.

Top Rated Games

1. $4 Bonus Cash For Life #1168 - Strong top pick,
2. $10 Spectacular #1816 - small float, tickets selling well,
3. $10 Fortune #1779 - jumbo inter-provincial game, good chance to cash. 
4. $10 Wild 10's #1785 - game winding down, still 25 $10,000 prizes left.
5. $20 Extraordinary #1742 - 7 , $3 games or one of these, very slow seller.

Games to Avoid

1. $5 Jacks Are Wild #1787 - all three top prize categories gone - we're waiting OLG!
2. $3 More Lucky Lines #1794 - OLG has sold 40% of float AFTER all GP's claimed!
3. $2 Crazy 8's #1765 - All 5 Grand Prizes claimed. 
4. $1 Lucky Lines #1770 - please make this game stop. It sucks.
5. $5 Cash In #1807 - terrible chance to win more than the cost of the ticket.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Cash Cow and Holiday Cashout are the top two choices.

$3 Game Update

With Fruit Explosion gone, Keno #1414 (not the new #1415) is the pick here.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Stick to the top rated game, Bonus Cash For Life #1168.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Here's an arguable statement - all the games here are playable with the exception of Cadillac Riches. (see the comment section for anticipated rebuttals)

Comings and Goings

Fruit Explosion, Scrabble #1799, and Crossword #3205 were all retired this past week. We were pleased to see the end of Scrabble and Crossword.

Newly launched were Crossword #3207 and 20X Lucky #1808. I'm not a fan of the Crossword games as the low Grand Prize structure of 10 - $50,000 prizes in a float of 20 million tickets is disappointing. Still, the game offers the best return percentage of all games for prizes greater than the price of the ticket and less than $100.  And I have to admit the game is fun to play.

20X Lucky offers a poor chance to cash any ticket (1:4.21) for a $5 ticket but what you get in return is a lower number of $5 winners. I was moaning about this last week so I guess that I have to like the game. Let's see how it develops.

Personal Play

Brutal! 6 Merry Money tickets included a single $5 winner. 2 Spectacular tickets returned 1 - $10 winner. 2 Bonus Cash For Life ticket returned zero. I am now at a cash rate of 30% and an ROI of 59%. Each number is a low for the year to date.

Posters report bad results on Bonus Cash For Life. That has been my experience as well. I have cashed 3 of 24 tickets for a whopping total of $20. Regardless, I am going to concentrate my play on this game this week.

In Conclusion

Received an invitation to visit the soon-t-be-launched www.playolg.ca site this morning. From the e-mail, "Blackjack, Roulette, Slots anda wholed lot more. PlayOLG provides a safe and fun enviroment where you can play your favourite games at your leisure. Plus, for the first time in Ontario, you will be able to legally purchase LOTTO MAX, LOTTO 6/49 and ENCORE online."

Gambling "at my leisure". I thought that I was already doing that. This is scary stuff for some poor souls.

Doug