Scrabble #1861 Leapfrogs To The Top

 It's been a full month since my last post. I am still dealing with the aftermath of the B&E that cost me my computer. I'm presently out of the country and I won't be buying a new one until I return. Hence, I am using an old Acer Notebook with lots of unsupported software. If this post looks wonky, it's for that reason.

Not much has changed since the last post - the top two games remain on top, just in reverse order. Both are working with extremely low float estimates (7% and 5%) and will likely be dropped from next weeks update. If you can find any of either of the top two games, scoop them up.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Scrabble #1861 - Back on top.
2. $3 Crossword #3212 - took a hit but is still worth a try.
3. $3 Fruit Explosion #1866 - best game available with a sizable float left to sell.
4. $3 Keno #1417 - A good choice if you like that kind of game.
5. $3 Lucky Dragon #1843 - It's the era of the $3 game.

Games to Avoid

1. $1 Lucky Lines #1826 - what else is new?
2. $5 Jackpot #1857 - all top prizes claimed - BEWARE!
3. $1 Hit 100 #1849 - buy some Tic-Tacs instead of this stinker.
4. $3 QFG Crossword #3212 - jumbo game is a stinker. Oh-oh.
5. $5 Bingo Doubler #1856 - behind the 8 ball.

Games Devoid of Grand Prizes

• Jackpot
• Lucky Lines

Comings and Goings

Red Hot 50's was mercifully KO'd. Three new games were introduced: $5 High Roller, $3 Pac Man Slots, and $5 Instant Tripler.

We need a good $5 game to play so I hope that one of the new ones manages to move its way up the list. The Pac-Man slots game has lots of ways to win for your $3 ticket. Usually the OLG makes you pay $5 to enjoy such possibilities. High Roller is interesting in that the highest prize one can win (other than the Grand Prize) is $2000. You'd think that would translate into a higher cash rate with more plentiful smaller prizes. It doesn't. Still, for a guy whose biggest cash was $75, I'll take the $2000. Will study this game more closely to see what's up.

Personal Play

Nothing to report. Out of country.

Post Script

Lots of bits to report on since the last update.

CL66 reports that the BC Lottery Corporation is still selling Classic White. The game has not been available in Ontario for the past month as all the Grand Prizes had been claimed. Kudos to the OLG for its decision and a big raspberry to their compatriots in BC. Maybe the price of housing theory contributor can theorize on the situation.

A story on unclaimed winning tickets by the CBC. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/unclaimed-lottery-wins-1.3461990 . I would suggest that they add the winning and unsold Grand Prize scratch tickets to their accounting ledger. There is a good post from Randy on March 26th on the subject. Malikeh also posted about DART. I'm impressed by the work that unit does. They were featured on a CBC news show a couple of years back. The subject was the unclaimed lottery winner that they tracked down. Impressive.

Thanks to Benjoi for actually posting a video of him scratching a winning ticket. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d4u7DH_795A . Way better than that fake one from a couple of months ago that featured some charlaton scratching a $200,000 winner. A lesson from Benjoi as to how he did so would be appreciated.

Good news that the Dresdan Harness Track will continue to operate for at least the next five years. The OLG's latest promoted hire is Elissa Blowe. She was a one woman Communications Shop at Fort Erie. I'm certain that her experience in that setting will be a great asset to these little tracks. Dresdan only operates 11 days a year. It's impossible to have lofty plans with that small of an operation. Good luck to Elissa.

I close with a reminder to all readers that the OLG Slots workers at Rideau-Carlton are still locked out. No doubt a broken union of workers is worth more to the future owners than a union of people making a reasonable wage.

Doug




 

Scrabble #1861 Retains Its Top Billing

I finally got around to tweaking my evaluation formula to address the weakness that the new $30 game presented. One of the factors in the formula is the number of "small" prizes for any game. I defined a "small" prize as anything less than $100. This definition discriminated against the $30 game as it only has a relative small percentage of prizes valued at less than $100. I changed the definition, henceforth, as being anything up to 10X the cost of the ticket. This definition treats all games equally.  The result is evident as the Golden Treasure game is now the 4th rated game available for purchase.

The top rated game remains Scrabble #1861. It sold 3% of its float last week (87,000 tickets) leaving an estimated 450,000 tickets to sell. With two Grand Prizes left to claim, your chances are one in 250,000 which is the best of any game with the exception of those games with many small Grand Prizes. The strength of the game comes from the fact that only 196 of 1362 Top Prizes remain to be claimed, however, those 196 prizes represent $191,280 of the $543,380 that the 1362 original Top Prizes represented. That is over 2X higher than one would expect.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Scrabble #1861 - Excellent Top Prize imbalance. 
2. $3 Crossword #3212 - 5th best small prize availability and 2nd best Top Prize imbalance. 
3. $3 Keno #1417 - 3rd best but a big gap between this game and the top two. 
4. $30 250 Golden #1782 - Can you stomach a $30 loser? It's a good choice. 
5. $3 Fruit Explosion #1866 - New game is selling well and moving up. 

Games to Avoid

1. $5 Tripling 7's #1858 - NO grand prizes but the OLG milks it as the Grand Prize is < $100k.
2. $10 Classic White #1858 - NO Grand Prizes - only 1 of the top 17 Prizes left. Stinker. 
3. $1 Red Hot 50's #1827 - "We'll take your dollar, if you insist" - OLG President
4. $1 Lucky Lines #1827 - 1 of 4 Grand Prizes left and 36% of the float. 
5. $1 Hot 100 #1849 - three $1 games available and they're all bad. 

Games Devoid of Grand Prizes

• Tripling 7's
• Classic White

Comings and Goings

Crossword #3210 was retired this past week. It was a jumbo game that stayed in play for a long time, running its float all the way down to 5%, which is very low. Still, it was the 8th rated game at the time of its demise.

No new games to report.

There were three Grand Prizes claimed this past week: QFG Crossword lost its first, Money Multiplier lost its second of 7, and Diamond lost its fifth of 12. There are presently an estimated 108 million tickets left for sale which is normal. The total Top Prize money available is 2.7% less than what should be expected.

Personal Play

Nothing to report.

Post Script

Randy commented this past week on the OLG's effort to publicize its Play Smart program. The following quote was included in their release: "We don’t send winning tickets to specific locations, and there is no secret formula for picking winning numbers."

I don't want to re-open old debates but why can't they say that the distribution of winning tickets is completely random? The way they have stated it leaves open the possibility that although a winning ticket is not sent to a specific location it may be sent to a defined zone, such as Eastern Ontario.

This week's story comes from the venerable Toronto Sun:
http://www.torontosun.com/2016/02/16/new-complex-planned-for-woodbine-racetrack-site

This is another chapter in a long tale. In my opinion, it was the reaction of the Woodbine Entertainment Group (WEG) that got the ball rolling to try and kill horse racing in Ontario. It's nigh impossible to figure out who actually owns WEG and when the Ontario Government came to them to talk about slots money and how it was being spent, WEG told them to take a hike. This resulted in the Ontario Government pulling the rug out from underneath their corpulent posteriors. After much yelping and invoking the interests of the "little" people ,whose interests are actually all that should matter, the Ontario Government made the OLG responsible for the welfare of the racing industry. This led to the departure of some senior staff and the hiring of a new vice-president responsible for the file. It has been a slowly developing marriage as the OLG was counting on all of that Slots money to underwrite their "Modernization" plan.

Toronto City Council rejected a casino for the downtown which was not expected by the OLG and only on a second go round did they approve an expansion at Woodbine. Now we see the plans for what amounts to a destination casino. This is the very concept that Frank Stronach proposed years ago but the old boys ran him out of town for being too progressive. My only caution to WEG is that if they're using OLG forecasting as a base for making business decisions, I'd advise getting a second opinion. One thing is for sure; if Woodbine doubles its customer base after the upgrade, it will come at the expense of the communities around Toronto such as Niagara Falls and Rama (Orillia). Woodbine will cannibalize those places and that's something that the OLG failed to mention while they were arm twisting municipalities into approving their respective location for a casino. Still, if you live in Toronto, what's not to like?

One last shout out to Darth who appears to be a college basketball guru. Think I'll ask him to put in my picks for this year's March Madness pool.

Doug

Scrabble #1861 Ascends the Throne

The pursuit of the elusive CFL 1161 ran aground as many posters predicted. The OLG is the proud winner of the $675,000. Replacing it is #1861 Scrabble. This game rates well as two of its three Grand Prizes remain to be claimed with only an estimated 17% of its float left to sell. That is still slightly over 1 million tickets so you should be able to find the game at your local retailer. A warning that all of the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place prizes have been claimed. There are three $5000 prizes left in addition to the two $75,000 prizes.

Also on the plus side, the game offers one cash in every 3.33 tickets which is the best of any game. On the downside, 12.9% of total revenue is returned to folks who "win" the cost of the ticket. That is the second highest of any game.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Scrabble #1861 - Strong numbers. 
2. $3 Crossword #3210 - Only 5% of float left. 
3. $3 Crossword #3212 - Both Crossword's are good choices. 
4. $3 Keno #1417 - 4 of 5 Grand Prizes left and only 60% of the float. 
5. $10 Diamond #1781 - The best of the expensive games.

Games to Avoid

1. $1 Red Hot 50's - Save your $1 for a person who needs it. 
2. $1 Hit 100 - Another terrible choice. 
3. $10 Classic White - Max prize is $1000 other than one $50k prize. For $10!!!
4. $4 Cash For Life #1171 - not like its sister version. 
5. $2 Golden 7's #1824 - Bad numbers across the board.

Game Devoid of Grand Prizes

• Tripling 7's
• Classic White

Comings and Goings

It was clean-out week at the OLG. All five Christmas games were retired in addition to More Lucky Lines and Cash For Life. Both Instant Gift Pack and Spectacular went down with over 20% of their respective floats left to sell. Each had one Grand Prize left to yield.

New on the scene  is 7,11,21. See CL66's review. I rate it 14th of the 26 games which is right about where new games should start: in the middle. The game looks like it has potential to me. The only thing I don't like is that you have a better chance to win the Grand Prize than you do either the  second or third prize. I prefer games whose prize structure looks like a pyramid.

Three Grand Prizes were claimed this past week. One each for: Money Multiplier, Tripling 7's, and 250 Golden. We're all watching to see if the GTA snags another Grand Prize in that game.

Personal Play

Nothing to report

Post Script

Differing points of view from two communities on the prospect of a casino:
http://www.nugget.ca/2016/02/08/casino-needs-sober-second-look
http://tvo.org/article/current-affairs/the-next-ontario/thousand-islands-olgs-big-plans-for-gananoque-

From the articles I have read, the projected revenue increases outlined in the OLG's vaunted "Modernization Report" are failing to materialize. If that continues, who will be responsible? Certainly not Misters Godfrey and Phillips who are, at this very moment, busy gutting the Ottawa Citizen to the glee of the US Hedge Funds that own it.

My last item for this week was a press release from the OLG that wasn't picked up by any outlet that I could find: http://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/olg-wants-you-to-play-smart-568035791.html .

The OLG likes to describe itself as "A global leader in responsible gaming." Who recognizes them as such, you ask? Why, the association of casino operators. Really? How about outsourcing Play Smart initiatives to NGO groups likes the Responsible Gaming Council? If you can outsource all of the casinos, why not that?

My research into Break Open tickets continues. Stay tuned.

Doug

Scrabble #1835 Strengthens Its Grip

The game of choice has reached the point of no man's land where the number of tickets left is diminishing slowly but they are hard to find. With 470,000 tickets left to be sold and 10,000 retailers, that only leaves, on average, 47 tickets per retailer - and we know that all such things are not equal. With low sales the OLG will be de-activating the game and that last remaining Grand Prize is destined to find it's way back to the OLG bottom line. Still, it remains in top spot and I'll be keeping my eyes open for them.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Scrabble #1835 - like finding hen's teeth.
2. $1 Bingo Express #1823 - Rare to find a $1 game on the list.
3. $3 Crossword #3209 - Tough to Find with version 3210 also for sale.
4. $3 Keno #1416 - Likely the best game with plentiful ticket availability
5. $3 Cashingo #1847 - Nice to see it make the list. Previous version sank quickly.

Games to Avoid

1. $1 5X The Money #1838 - Horrible squared.
2. $5 Crystal 7's # 1848 - $77,777 versus $100,000 GP allows OLG to keep flogging them.
3. $2 10X The Money - Why did the two good versions of these games get de-activated?
4. $3 Sweet Cash #1852 - Stinker
5. $4 Cash For Life #1167 - Give us a new version of this ever popular game.

Vox Populi***

1. Fast 200's
2. 500 Frenzy
3. Red Hot 50's

***Note - Instead of rating these games with large numbers of small grand prizes in comparison to regular games, I have created a sub-category just for these sorts of games.

Games to Play If All You Want Is The Grand Prize

1. $10 Cash Blast
2. $10 Spectacular
3. $20 Extreme
4. $10 Diamond
5. $5   Wild Card

Games Devoid Of Grand Prizes

• Sweet Cash
• Crystal 7's
• 5X The Money

Comings and Goings

No games were retired over the past 10 days but three new ones were added bringing the total of games for sale to a very high thirty-two. There are presently 110 million tickets for sale across the province which is also very high. Looks like some staff at OLG have been burning the candle at both ends.

Coming on line were new versions of Bingo and Cross Tripler plus the old faithful Holiday Spectacular. The latter is a $10 game with a very small float of 1.3 million tickets. We're still a long way out from Christmas. With six $10 - $20 games currently for sale, the field is quite crowded. I expect the Inter-Provincial game Fortune to be pulled very soon.

Cross Tripler #1846 starts its life as the 7th rated game. That is very promising indeed. The new Bingo game is also rated well at 13th of the 32 games. That's a good start for a $3 game with a significant float size of almost 9 million tickets.

Post Script

I have been following the comment thread on prize distribution with interest. It's something that I have mentioned before. My thinking has been swayed by some of the comments over time but I continue to approach the possibility with an open mind.

The reasons why I'm not absolutely convinced that it could not be possible is the opaqueness of how the OLG protects its supplier contracts (not subject to Freedom of Information as release could jeopardize the financial interests of the Province of Ontario) and the Marketing value of ensuring that all parts of the province enjoy the joy of lottery wins. That said, for the commentators that claim that Ottawa is a wasteland - I agree with you!

The reasons why I think it unlikely have to do with the controversy that would ensue if such activity was to become public, and the glaring fact that the OLG has no incentive do to so. They are selling to a captive audience and are making $1.6 billion per year. Why mess with it? Further, we have testimony from one OLG insider that it is definitely not the case.

I agree that the data might be interesting to gather. To do so you would need to obtain OLG data on ticket sales by geographic area. I believe that the OLG uses Census Metropolitan Areas. You would have to compare the sale of instant tickets over time versus large prizes claimed over the same time. Given the small number of large prizes, I think that you might need six months of data, maybe more. And I would reduce the number of CMAs significantly to reduce margins of error. Maybe a GTA, Ottawa, Hamilton, London, and Others breakdown would suffice.

Another approach would be to simply compare the number of large prizes won in lotto games versus instant games on a GTA versus non-GTA basis. There is no fooling around with lotto games (except, apparently, in Serbia). Should we not therefore expect to see the same number of GTA winners in those games, percentage wise, as we do in Instant Games? Or are the buying habits of GTAers different from those not in the GTA? Maybe. It's an interesting subject to debate.

Thanks to the poster who really laid it on the line this past week with his $%#@* scam comments with respect to certain current games. Cracked me up.

It's voting time. May your candidate of choice be elected.


Doug

Scrabble #1835 Reclaims the Top Spot

Crossword #3209's reign was short lived as it lost a Grand Prize last week thereby knocking it down two spots to the third ranking. There is now only an estimated 8% of the float left (2 million tickets) and , in my experience, being routinely pushed aside for its sister version of the game.

Meanwhile, our old friend Scrabble #1835 is back on top with one chance in a million to win the last Grand Prize of $75,000. Of particular note is the slow ascendance of Bingo Express #1823. Since I began this blog three years ago there has never been a $1 game that made it to the top. It's the two juicy Grand Prizes and the 750,000:1 odds that make it a good choice. With 18% of the float left out there you should be able to find them.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Scrabble #1835 - Something about hen's teeth applies here. 
2. $1 Bingo Express #1823 - Best $1 you can spend. 
3. $3 Crossword #3209 - One Grand Prize left out there. 
4. $3 Super Bingo #3018 - The numbers say yes, the heart says no.
5. $3 Keno #1416 - Good choice and tickets should be plentiful.

Games to Avoid

1. $1 5X The Money #1838 - The inverse of Bingo Express
2. $1 Red Hot 50's #1827 - Pig in a poke. 
3. $5 500 Frenzy #1853 - 3 winners on this board. Who can argue with that?
4. $2 Fast 200's #1817 - If you like this kind of game, this is the choice. 
5. $5 Crystal 7's #1848 - The $77,777 Grand Prize allows this stinker to continue. 

Games to Play If All You Want Is The Grand Prize

1. 500 Frenzy
2. Red Hot 50's
3. Fast 200's
4. Cash Blast
5. Extreme

Games Devoid of Grand Prizes

• 5X The Money
• Crystal 7's
• Sweet Cash

Comings and Goings

Two new games were introduced this week:   $2 Golden 7's and everyone's favourite $3 More Lucky Lines. I have enjoyed reminiscing this past week with the posted comments about the history of this game. I'd almost forgotten how riled up the board was over those travesties. Jaydee made the scary point that because the game is complicated, perhaps one or more Grand Prize winners were not even aware that they won and tossed their tickets away. Perish the thought but we all know that it happens.

I rate Golden 7's 20th and More Lucky Lines 13th of the 29 games currently for sale. See the comments to last week's entry for more detailed commentary.

Personal Play

Jason Jones posted this past week indicating that he prefers playing games when they are newly for sale. He feels that he has better success that way. Well, that's what I did this week, along with Mic, buying 4 Diamond tickets. Two of the four tickets were winners returning my full $40 investment. I'll take it,

Post Script

Ryan indicated that we can look forward to a $30 ticket coming on-line at the end of November. Seeing how poorly $20 tickets sell, I'll find it interesting to see how this game does. Will any blog readers buy some? Let us know.

The OLG's labour issues are settling in for the long run. I visited Woodbine this past Sunday and there were no pickets at about 4:00 PM. I hope the workers stick together and manage to get this issue to the desk of the Premier.

I wonder if scratch ticket sales go up in the fall and winter. Last week, the OLG sold about 6 million tickets overall. There are about 100 million available for sale. I intend to track this for a bit.

Happy scratching.

Doug

Scrabble #1835 Maintains Its Top Spot

15X The Money was dropped from the Outstanding Prize list this past week leaving Scrabble as the top choice. The top rated game is already long in the tooth with only 13% of its float left (410,000 tickets est.) but tickets are still to be had in my neck of the woods. Crossword #3209 is closing the gap on the top choice and although only 11% of its float remains that represents 2.3 million tickets. The OLG may pull version 3209 as version 3210 is also for sale and fully 89% of its float is left. At my seller, they had 3210 on display with 3209 tickets stashed under the counter. Don't be fooled - it's the 3209 version that you should be searching for.

Scrabble currently offers one chance in 410,000 to win the Grand Prize and one chance in 2307 to win a prize of $100 or more. It has a positive ratio of 1.64 between the money left for Top Prizes and the number of Top Prizes left to be claimed.

Top Rated Games 

1. $3 Scrabble #1835 - Strong choice.
2. $3 Crossword #3209 - Very good small prize availability plus positive ratio. 
3. $1 Bingo Express #1823 - 2 of 4 Grand Prizes left and 21% of the float.
4. $3 Super Bingo #3018 - Top game for small prize availability
5. $5 Cross Tripler #1830 - Strong on all measures

Games to Avoid

1. $1 5X The Money #1838 - Horrible choice
2. $1 Red Hot 50's #1827 - New game begins life at the bottom. 
3. $5 500 Frenzy #1853 - Blog visitors have won three $500 prizes. 
4. $2 Fast 200's #1817 - One chance in 800 to win $200 prize. 
5. $3 Tetris #1832 - Devoid of Grand Prizes

Games to Play If All You Want Is A Grand Prize

1. 500 Frenzy
2. Red Hot 50's
3. Fast 200's
4. Extreme
5. Cash Blast

Games Devoid Of Grand Prizes

• 5X The Money
• Tetris
• Crystal 7's
• Sweet Cash

Comings and Goings

20X The Money and 15X The Money were both retired this past week. We did not care about the former and we mourn the latter.

Red Hot 50's and Wild Card were introduced. Red Hot 50's has nothing to recommend but it is a $1 game. Wild Card has lots of ways to win and an excellent 1 chance in 545 to win $100 or more.

Personal Play

Two Classic Whites returned nothing. Two Crossword Triplers contained one winner of $20. Two 500 Frenzy returned nothing and 1 Scrabble was a dud. That is a sub 50% return on the week. Boo!

Post Script

There is lots of disruption surrounding the modernization (privatization) of Sudbury Downs, Brantford, and Woodbine. These folks have been without a contract since May and they know darned well that the privatization of their respective areas is going to mean a wage and benefit cut for them.

We know from the Ontario East bundle that the terms of the contract only requires that the operator protect wages and positions for one year.

I have empathy for Tony Bitonti (one web poster referred to him as Tony Baloney) who has the unenviable task of communicating the OLG nonsense to the media. Yes, the OLG cannot negotiate pension provisions for a future owner but you can bet that the pension plan that the new operator will offer the staff will look a lot more like the proposed Ontario Retirement Pension Plan than the plan that current OLG staff pay into. The cruel truth is that Mr. Bitonti and the rest of the OLG Head Office staff will continue to enjoy a high quality pension plan into the future. They've earned that but what about the staff working in sites across the province? Are they to have their benefits gutted as part of the OLG's plan to increase the amount of money they return to the Provincial Treasurer? That little nugget was not highlighted in the Modernization Plan. http://www.olg.ca/about/modernizing_lottery_and_gaming_project_status.jsp
 
I am approaching the last quarter of 2015 which means that I'm looking at ways to improve this blog for 2016. CL66 and Tommy have each brought useful insights to the blog that readers enjoy. If anyone has any ideas about how I might better incorporate their analysis or how I might improve the appearance of the blog, please let me know.

Good luck on tonight's Lotto Max.


Doug

Scrabble #1835 Overtakes 15X The Money - Both Games Near Their End Dates

Scrabble #1835, with only 14% of its float left (+/- 3%) has taken over from 15X The Money which has 12% of its float left (+/- 3%). I have given up on 15X The Money and Scrabble is becoming progressively more rare in my neighborhood.

Each game has an identical outstanding Top Prize ratio of 1.69. 15X The Money has 260 prizes of $100 or more left and 20% of the money associated with those prizes. Scrabble has 197 such prizes representing 25% of the prize money. Scrabble offers a .9% higher small prize return ratio and its that difference that makes the difference between the two. Your chances to find the 15 X Money Grand Prize are 1 in 380,000 whereas they are 1 in 450,000 for Scrabble. Both games should be gone before too long.


  

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Scrabble #1835 - New Leader
2. $3 15X The Money #1840 - limping into the great beyond. 
3. $3 Crossword #3209 - Strong candidate to head the list soon. 
4. $3 Super Bingo #3018 - Takes a long time to lose my $3. 
5. $1 Bingo Express #1823 - Cheat the parking meter and pick one up. 

Games To Avoid

1. $1 5X The Money #1838 - If it's the only ticket for sale - leave it. 
2. $5 500 Frenzy #1838 - Three blog contributors have snagged a $500 prize. That's a first!
3. $2 Fast 200's #1817 - 800 to 1 to win $200 versus 550 to 1 to win $500 for Frenzy. 
4. $3 Tetris #1832 - My seller still has some - no thanks. 
5. $2 10X The Money #1839 - Bad all around.

Games to Play If All You Want Is A Grand Prize

1. Frenzy
2. Fast 200's
3. Extreme
4. Cash Blast
5. 15X The Money

Games Devoid of Grand Prizes

• 5X The Money
• Tetris
• Crystal 7's

Comings and Goings

Nothing to report this week although my update is as of yesterday and I note that CL66 has posted a review for the new game "Wild Card". See last weeks post for the details.

Personal Play

Eight Super Bingos and four Scrabbles returned two winners totaling $9. I am in a bad rut and I'm thinking of breaking out by reaching down my list a ways. You have to like the games you're playing and I don't like Super Bingo at all. Maybe some Cross Triplers or Classic Whites are in order.

Post Script

Some good advice has been posted this past week by Tommy and JayDee.

Lots of discussion over the location of winners and whether things may not be as they appear. I have to preface my comments with the statement that seeing patterns is an ability that has contributed to the evolutionary success of our species. Seeing patterns that are not there does not necessarily hurt us but being right certainly helps.

A while back I set out to collect the data as to where winning scratch tickets were sold. I abandoned the mission mid-stream. There is too much information that is needed to make the project reasonable in scope. The OLG arrays sales data by Census Metropolitan Area (CMA). If we knew, over a substantial period of time, what the sales data was for Scratch tickets and we knew the Grand Prize distribution then we could start to form some conclusions about whether what we are seeing is reasonable. We have to remember that although a winner may come from a small town that there are many many small towns out there and only one Toronto. Like Tommy, I'm not convinced that it is true but I am also not 100% sure that it is not. I am confident that there is no direct finagling but it is possible that winning tickets are randomly produced and delivered to particular CMAs to ensure that all parts of the province get to share in the thoughts that they too could win. The OLG might call that a Marketing Strategy.

The proof of this would be in the contract the OLG signs with the ticket producer but I have no doubt that such details are protected from Freedom Of Information legislation as being counter to the financial interests of the Province of Ontario. The truth will become all the more opaque when the OLG contracts out the entire Scratch Ticket business to a third party.

I chuckled at the lament from one poster who longed for the days where the numbers came out of a machine with balls. Take a look at this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DxUvX5tsqY . An axiom when I was young was , "Don't believe anything you hear and only half of what you see. ". That should be updated to "Don't believe anything you hear or see!"

I'm still trying to figure out who owns the 49% of the company that has been awarded the Ontario East Gaming bundle. There has been a flurry of activity with the CEO of the Great Canadian Gaming Company (owner of the company that won the bid) phoning the Mayor of Belleville. The winning company has ideas around location and the Mayor has three possible sites but the OLG has been very clear in saying that nothing has been decided as of yet. Belleville may find that what the "civic minded" casino company has in mind may not correspond with what the democratically elected representatives of the good people of Belleville have envisioned. More to come....


Doug

Scrabble #1799 Is The Top Pick - If You Can Find Any

Back to base after a visit to the Somme Battlefields of WW1 and being stranded in Charlotte, North Carolina on the way home. Lovely town. Three Grand Prizes were claimed in Bingo over the past two weeks and 18 in the "democratic" Wild 10's game. Scrabble #1799 is the top pick but only 10% (340,000 tickets) remain and only 1 Grand Prize. The game could turn into a dud any day so be alert.

Your odds of winning the $75,000 Grand Prize are 340,000:1 which is the best of any game for sale with the exception of Wild 10's. In that game you trade off a low Grand Prize of $10,000 against 69 unclaimed Grand Prizes.  Scrabble returns $.073 of every dollar left to be spent to that one Grand Prize. This is more than even two of the $10 - $20 games and first among $3 games.

You are likely to face the common problem of scarcity with only 10% of the float left to be sold. Will the OLG order up that final print run or not? An initial tour around my neighborhood was fruitless.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Scrabble #1799 - 10% of float left to sell +/- 3%
2. $4 Bonus Cash for Life #1168 - 63%, +/- 3%
3. $3 Fruit Explosion #1803 - 14%, +/- 3%
4. $10 Prestige #1741 - 23%, +/- 7%
5. $10 Fortune #1779 - 94%, +/- 8%

Games to Avoid

1. $5 Win Take All - All Grand Prizes claimed, still 20% of float left to sell. Beware!
2. $2 Crazy 8's - All Grand Prizes claimed, 33% of float left! 
3. $5 Jacks are Wild - Only 1 of Seven Grand Prizes left and 45% of the float left to sell. 
4. $1 Lucky Lines - Terrible game from many points of view. Avoid!
5. $3 Bingo - the game has been hollowed out. One chance in 1.2 million to win $75,000.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Cash Cow and Royal Seven's are each much preferable to the other two.

$3 Game Update

Two of the top five games are in this group. Stick to them. Next in line is Cashingo.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Bonus Cash For Life is the strongest play in this area.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Avoid Cadillac and Extraordinary.

Comings and Goings

Classic Gold, Sapphire 7's and Blazing 7's were all retired over the past two weeks. Classic Gold was an Inter-Provincial game that was kept on the shelves too long with no Grand Prizes. Sapphire 7's caused great irritation to More Lucky Line players as its tickets were always available despite it being devoid of Grand Prizes. Blazing 7's had reached the end of its life with one prize outstanding.

No new games were added although readers have been doing their homework and we know that new ones are slated for introduction including a new More Lucky Lines game. The gall of them!

Personal Play

Last post I narrowly escaped being shut out. It proved to be a prelude to this week. Two Bonus Cash for Lifes and two Wild 10's returned nothing. My ROI for the year dips to 65% and my cash rate sits at 33%.

To Conclude

I read with interest the comments related to how Texas runs its Instant Game process. Lots to be learned there. I bought a two pound ticket in London last week and will be taking a look at how the British handle their Instant Games.

I also intend to alter my formula for game evaluation this week. The current formula yields a rating based upon the product of: the ratio of revenue going to Grand Prize winners at the introduction of the game versus now, the chances of cashing for a prize greater than the cost of a ticket, and the overall percentage of revenue returned to the player. I intend to introduce a factor that will add the percentage of revenue going to winners of more than the cost of the ticket but less than $100 and twice the percentage of revenue of winners of $100 and more.

Devising the formula is tricky as it involves a value judgement. Instant Game players enjoy playing the games. If our only concern was the Grand Prize then we would all be playing Lotto Max. That said, we cannot disregard the Grand Prizes as it makes no sense for us to play games for which all the Grand Prizes have been claimed. Finding that middle ground is the challenge and I'm happy to receive your input as to what is important to you as a player.

The current Bonus Cash for Life game is a case in point. I rate it highly as the game returns 69.89% of all revenue to players. This is a number that you expect to see for $10 games, not a $4 game. That's the "bonus", I imagine. Your chance to cash any ticket is 1 in 3.99 which is 6th of 7 in the group. Your chance to cash for more than the $4 cost of the ticket is 1 in 6.74 which is 3rd of 7 in the group. The 5 Grand Prizes of  $675,000 is a big plus. That represents $3,375,000 of winnings over 6.2 million $4 tickets or $.136 per ticket. Wild 10's, on the other hand, has 69 remaining Grand Prizes of $10,000 each. Yes, your chances of winning are less than 1 in 10,000 but the total winnings of those 69 winners is only $690,000 for your $10 investment, or $.107 per ticket sold. With 150 Grand Prizes in Wild 10's, the number of prizes claimed is much more likely to track overall ticket sales. This is not the case when there are only 5 Grand Prize winners. In that game, a third of the tickets have been sold and all 5 Grand Prizes remain outstanding. Of course, as Pete Townsend told us, "We Wont Be Fooled Again."

Evaluating these two very different games is difficult. I can't say that I am entirely happy with my current method and that's why I intend to tweak it slightly. I'm looking forward to seeing where that leads me.

It's good to be home. Look for the blog to be updated weekly from now on.


Doug

Prestige is Poised to Rule a Long Time

I thank reader Trinitron for pointing out that I had erred in my calculations. Prestige was the top rated game, as indicated, but it was not as dominant as I had suggested. The game continues its progression this week as it failed to surrender any of its Grand Prizes once again. Eleven of the twelve original Grand Prizes remain and almost 1/4 of the ticket float has been sold. The game is rated to be substantially ahead of the second rated game (Cash Blast) and with 11 Grand Prizes left, it will continue on top even if two or three of the Grand Prizes are revealed. You have 1 chance in a million to win a Grand Prize of $1 million for your ten dollar investment. In Cash Blast you have one chance in 272,000 to win a Grand Prize of $250,000 for the same $10. If its simply the best chance to snag a Grand Prize, then Cash Blast is your game. I'm sticking with Prestige.

Top Rated Games

1. Prestige 76%
2. Cash Blast 57%
3. Fast 200s 46%
4. $200 Million 63%
5. Wild 8s 15%

Games to Avoid

1. Keno 1410 25%
2. Horse Shoes 20%
3. More Lucky Lines 17%
4. 20x Lucky 17%
5. Scrabble 5%

Note - percentage numbers are the estimated % of the game's float that remains to be sold. Once a game falls below 20%, tickets will begin to become harder to find.

The OLG has fallen into its old ways once again. Each of the five games on the "Games to Avoid" list has exhausted its respective Grand Prizes. Scrabble is particularly abhorrent given the length of time that its tickets have been sold while being in this state. Thank goodness that it is unlikely that your local seller will even have any tickets for sale with a scant 5% of its float left to sell. Now that Keno 1412 has been launched we should see the end of Keno 1410. If you're buying the new game, be careful not to buy the old one.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Wild8s and Fast 200s remain well rated. I would recommend buying some of each as it is not common that these games reach the top five.

$3 Game Update

Two new games were introduced this week. There is hope that one or both may develop into a good choice in time.

$4 - $5 Game Update

The best two games are Cash for Life and Money Multiplier.

$10 - $20 Games

No change this week - anything other than Classic White will do just fine.

Comings and Goings 

Two new games were introduced this week: Cashingo and Keno 1412. Cashingo has already coughed up a Grand Prize making Keno 1412 the better of the two. I like the structure of each game. The prize structure for each is a pyramid with fewer prizes in every value as the prize size increases. Players instinctively think that this must be true but it is not. Cashingo returns 5.7% of its revenue to winners of $100 or more versus 4.5% in Keno. Keno also has a category high 14.3% of its revenue returned to players who win their $3 back. Your chances to win a Grand Prize are presently 1.1 million:1 in Cashingo and 833,000:1 in Keno 1412. The difference is attributable to the fact that Cashingo has surrendered one its 3- $75,000 Grand Prizes. All six $50,000 Grand Prizes remain in Keno 1412.

Personal Play

Four Prestige tickets included three winners totaling $55. I'll take it! I now sit at a cash rate of 38% and a return on investment of 74%.

I received some junk mail this past week (who knows how these things happen) encouraging me to play scratch and win tickets on-line at an off-shore location. Who would do such a crazy thing? As much as I have problems with the OLG and their "Modernization Plan", at least I know that the Government of Ontario stands behind them and they are transparent about their Instant Games. The dreaded slot machines are an altogether different story but I won't go there...

Bonne action de grâce à tous et toutes.
(Happy Thanksgiving to one and all)
Doug

Scrabble #1702 Becomes a Strong Play

Scrabble #1702 sold 7% of its ticket float this past week without giving up any of its $75,000 grand prizes. Two of the three grand prizes are left to be claimed and 27% of the tickets remain outstanding. The game is a strong play. Crossword #1298 and Keno #1409 are the next highest rated games but the top game is significantly better. The Crossword game is the current big seller. Almost 1/3 of total sales are of this game. Of course, the game began with a 20 million ticket float. Scarcity of tickets can become an issue but you should be able to find ample supply of all recommended games.

Keno #1409 remains the best value play and Instant 649 provides the best pure odds to win the game's Grand Prize.


Best $1-$2 Game - Go Bananas
Best $10 - $20 Game - Turbo Cash


Comings and Goings

Two games were retired this week, both of them were games for which the Grand Prizes had already been claimed. Cash for Life #1155 had been bereft of Grand Prizes since the 17 September update. The OLG only sold 2% of the ticket float from that date until today. Crazy 8's #1699 sold 6% of its float since the 27 August update. That was the date when the last Grand Prize was claimed. I applaud the decision to cancel these games even if it was a bit tardy.

Cross Express, Horseshoes, and More Lucky #1651 are the three remaining games to avoid at all costs. Buyer beware!

Personal Play

A slightly better result this week buying a combination of Keno #1409 and Scrabble #1702. A $24 investment (8 tickets) contained 3 winners returning $15. Not good by any measure but better than the shellacking I had been taking. I now stand at a win rate of 29% (which is reasonable) and a sub-par 40% return on investment. One decent winner will put me back on pace.

Good Luck
Doug

Scrabble #1702 Takes Over Top Spot

The one month reign of Jacks are Wild has come to an end. A second grand prize in two weeks was claimed in Mattawa rendering the game unplayable. It will not return.

Instead, the $3 Scrabble #1702 has vaulted to the top of the list. Sixty-four percent of the tickets have been sold while 2 of the 3 - $75,000 Grand Prizes remain to be claimed. Players have one chance in 519,000 to win $75,000 for a $3 investment. Players would also be justified in playing Keno #1409. It is the second rated game and remains number 1 in the value play evaluation. The best pure chance to win a Grand Prize is Instant 649. You have one chance in 58,000 to win $100,000 for a $5 investment. Those are excellent odds but they come at the price of minor prizes. This is an "All or Nothing" type of game, much like the 649 draw.


Best $1 - $2 Game - $1 Go Bananas
Best $10-$20 Game - $10 Turbo Cash

Comings and Goings

Nothing to report this week. Five games continue to be sold for which there are no Grand Prizes left to be claimed. They are: Cross Express, Crazy 8's, Horseshoes, Cash for Life #1156, and More Lucky #1712.

Daily sales remain at slightly more than 600,000 per day. The biggest seller continues to be the jumbo Crossword #1298. The original 20 million ticket float has been 60% sold. OLG is selling them at a rate of 130,000 per day. Other Grand Prizes were claimed this week in Hamilton, Oshawa, and Renfrew.

Personal Play

Thank goodness I don't have to play Jacks are Wild anymore! Six more tickets last week contained one winner of $5. In total, I have purchased 26 of those buggers since August 30th. Six were winners (1 in 4:30) returning a grand total of $45 (35%). I could have expected to have had one more winner and almost double the return.

Lets hope that Scrabble in kinder to me.


Good Luck
Doug