15X The Money was dropped from the Outstanding Prize list this past week leaving Scrabble as the top choice. The top rated game is already long in the tooth with only 13% of its float left (410,000 tickets est.) but tickets are still to be had in my neck of the woods. Crossword #3209 is closing the gap on the top choice and although only 11% of its float remains that represents 2.3 million tickets. The OLG may pull version 3209 as version 3210 is also for sale and fully 89% of its float is left. At my seller, they had 3210 on display with 3209 tickets stashed under the counter. Don't be fooled - it's the 3209 version that you should be searching for.
Scrabble currently offers one chance in 410,000 to win the Grand Prize and one chance in 2307 to win a prize of $100 or more. It has a positive ratio of 1.64 between the money left for Top Prizes and the number of Top Prizes left to be claimed.
Red Hot 50's and Wild Card were introduced. Red Hot 50's has nothing to recommend but it is a $1 game. Wild Card has lots of ways to win and an excellent 1 chance in 545 to win $100 or more.
We know from the Ontario East bundle that the terms of the contract only requires that the operator protect wages and positions for one year.
I have empathy for Tony Bitonti (one web poster referred to him as Tony Baloney) who has the unenviable task of communicating the OLG nonsense to the media. Yes, the OLG cannot negotiate pension provisions for a future owner but you can bet that the pension plan that the new operator will offer the staff will look a lot more like the proposed Ontario Retirement Pension Plan than the plan that current OLG staff pay into. The cruel truth is that Mr. Bitonti and the rest of the OLG Head Office staff will continue to enjoy a high quality pension plan into the future. They've earned that but what about the staff working in sites across the province? Are they to have their benefits gutted as part of the OLG's plan to increase the amount of money they return to the Provincial Treasurer? That little nugget was not highlighted in the Modernization Plan. http://www.olg.ca/about/modernizing_lottery_and_gaming_project_status.jsp
I am approaching the last quarter of 2015 which means that I'm looking at ways to improve this blog for 2016. CL66 and Tommy have each brought useful insights to the blog that readers enjoy. If anyone has any ideas about how I might better incorporate their analysis or how I might improve the appearance of the blog, please let me know.
Good luck on tonight's Lotto Max.
Doug
Scrabble currently offers one chance in 410,000 to win the Grand Prize and one chance in 2307 to win a prize of $100 or more. It has a positive ratio of 1.64 between the money left for Top Prizes and the number of Top Prizes left to be claimed.
Top Rated Games
- $3 Scrabble #1835 - Strong choice.
- $3 Crossword #3209 - Very good small prize availability plus positive ratio.
- $1 Bingo Express #1823 - 2 of 4 Grand Prizes left and 21% of the float.
- $3 Super Bingo #3018 - Top game for small prize availability
- $5 Cross Tripler #1830 - Strong on all measures
Games to Avoid
- $1 5X The Money #1838 - Horrible choice
- $1 Red Hot 50's #1827 - New game begins life at the bottom.
- $5 500 Frenzy #1853 - Blog visitors have won three $500 prizes.
- $2 Fast 200's #1817 - One chance in 800 to win $200 prize.
- $3 Tetris #1832 - Devoid of Grand Prizes
Games to Play If All You Want Is A Grand Prize
- 500 Frenzy
- Red Hot 50's
- Fast 200's
- Extreme
- Cash Blast
Games Devoid Of Grand Prizes
- 5X The Money
- Tetris
- Crystal 7's
- Sweet Cash
Comings and Goings
20X The Money and 15X The Money were both retired this past week. We did not care about the former and we mourn the latter.Red Hot 50's and Wild Card were introduced. Red Hot 50's has nothing to recommend but it is a $1 game. Wild Card has lots of ways to win and an excellent 1 chance in 545 to win $100 or more.
Personal Play
Two Classic Whites returned nothing. Two Crossword Triplers contained one winner of $20. Two 500 Frenzy returned nothing and 1 Scrabble was a dud. That is a sub 50% return on the week. Boo!Post Script
There is lots of disruption surrounding the modernization (privatization) of Sudbury Downs, Brantford, and Woodbine. These folks have been without a contract since May and they know darned well that the privatization of their respective areas is going to mean a wage and benefit cut for them.We know from the Ontario East bundle that the terms of the contract only requires that the operator protect wages and positions for one year.
I have empathy for Tony Bitonti (one web poster referred to him as Tony Baloney) who has the unenviable task of communicating the OLG nonsense to the media. Yes, the OLG cannot negotiate pension provisions for a future owner but you can bet that the pension plan that the new operator will offer the staff will look a lot more like the proposed Ontario Retirement Pension Plan than the plan that current OLG staff pay into. The cruel truth is that Mr. Bitonti and the rest of the OLG Head Office staff will continue to enjoy a high quality pension plan into the future. They've earned that but what about the staff working in sites across the province? Are they to have their benefits gutted as part of the OLG's plan to increase the amount of money they return to the Provincial Treasurer? That little nugget was not highlighted in the Modernization Plan. http://www.olg.ca/about/modernizing_lottery_and_gaming_project_status.jsp
I am approaching the last quarter of 2015 which means that I'm looking at ways to improve this blog for 2016. CL66 and Tommy have each brought useful insights to the blog that readers enjoy. If anyone has any ideas about how I might better incorporate their analysis or how I might improve the appearance of the blog, please let me know.
Good luck on tonight's Lotto Max.
Doug
I found your blog about a year ago and it remains one of the few I check out on a regular basis. I appreciate all your hard work and the valuable info from other posters. Thank you for all your hard work.
ReplyDeleteI echo that! This is a great community of folks willing to share their knowledge and experiences about our shared hobby! Thanks to all who contribute.
ReplyDeleteFound 37 tickets of 15x$ and best ticket was 5x $5= $25. All together only won $60. Spent $111 so end up losing $51. I'll personally will not play again if seen somewhere.
ReplyDeleteI still have 50 unstratched 15x at home. located in Hamilton
DeleteI'll take my chances with Lottario. Some lucky person in Brampton won't be going into work today I'm sure. $60M in Lotto Max.
DeleteLol..$60m winfall is worth using up a sick day for..I wonder how long it will take before they come forward because the media and other scrupulous people will be waiting in line to speak with the lucky person.
DeleteI put $21 in the big draw and hit $2 on encore .
@Plopper:
DeleteWhile the goal is to play to top rated with hopes of winning the top prize, unless you are lucky, one has to keep in mind the Small Prize PayBack on 15X (based on 200 games) is around 52% so your 54% isn't that far off.
TmF
Tommy, in your estimation, what tix have the highest SPPB? Thanks! :)
DeleteUplifter, the SPPB calculation varies depending on how many 'games played' is included in the calculation. I've always chosen a number I am unlikely to exceed, like 200-300. However, I do have to acknowledge that there are more aggressive players and players who simply put are luckier than I am.
DeleteSo... based on under-10,000 games played:
1) #1853 $500 Frenzy (6985), 1-in-4.56 (21.9%), 67.000%
2) #3018 Super Bingo (8750), 1-in-3.26 (30.7%), 63.859%
3) #3210 Crossword (2000), 1-in-3.84 (26.0%), 63.52593%
4) #1416 Keno (7000), 1-in-3.40 (29.4%), 63.06649%
5) #1850 Bingo Doubler (1750), 1-in-3.54 (28.3%) , 62.21817%
Keep in mind that since OLG pays back a maximum of 70%, there's always a trade-off. 500 Frenzy has a maximum prize of $500 and a somewhat low hit rate. Keno only has 21 of 5.1M tickets (at time of issue) above $100. Crossword usually has a massive 20M+ float so odds of winning the top prize doesn't deviate too much... usually around 1-in-2M or so. Bingo Double had 33 of 8.3M tickets for a 4-figure prize, Super Bingo 26 of 10.2M tickets for a 4-figure prize.
The SPPB is just a guide if, like me, you're looking to increase play time by recycling small prize wins. Winning the top prize is extremely hard.
Combining SPPB with a game that has 'improved' odds of a jackpot win is a viable strategy though. Both Darth and CL66 have mentioned previously that they look for this characteristic in a game. Good luck.
TmF
Thanks for taking the time to respond, Tommy! Super good luck to you!! :)
DeleteDoug's #1 pick: $3 Scrabble, was deactivated last Friday - only activated/loose tickets can now be sold - the OLG will reclaim the majority of these tickets between now and it's retirement date of October 26th - This game i think is just average, as i rate it 50/100 - while currently there is an estimated float of 400,000 tickets, i would estimate 90% of that wasn`t distributed / now cannot be activated, so that would leave 40,000 tickets somewhere out there amongst Ontario's 11,000+ retailers - there are only 2 prizes worth more than $300 remaining: 1 $75 grand prize and 1 $10k prize, but if 90% of the tickets aren't available, then there's a 90% chance neither is that grand prize - i would only pick up 1 or 2 of these if i happened upon them, as the odds to just win more than $10 on this game are 1 in 74. (0_o)
ReplyDeleteOut tomorrow is the new $10 Diamond ticket - i will post a review soon after the OLG releases an online fact sheet about it.
The first-ever $60 million Lotto Max jackpot has been won on a ticket sold in Brampton.
ReplyDeleteOntario also had six winning Maxmillions tickets sold in Friday night's historic draw:
$1,000,000 - Toronto$1,000,000 - Cambridge$1,000,000 - Barrie Region$1,000,000 - Brampton$333,333.40 - Ottawa Region (ticket shared with Western Canada and Atlantic Canada)
Two secondary prize tickets worth $336,760.80 each were also sold in Toronto and Sarnia.
Two winning Encore tickets worth $100,000 each were sold in Mississauga and the London region.
I cant believe someone woke up 60 million dollars richer...nuff said
Delete$10 Diamond Payout - Review
ReplyDeleteGrand prize: 12 x $1,000,000
Next top prizes: 8 x $100,000 / 10 x $50,000 / 50 x $10,000 / 45 x $1,000
Mid level prizes: $500 / $100
Low level prizes: $75 / $50 / $30 / $25 / $20 / $15 / $10
Number of tickets: 14,600,000 (6,500,000 Ontario)
Odds to win:
any prize - 1 in 3.31
$15 or more - 1 in 5.18
$20 or more - 1 in 5.72
$25 or more - 1 in 18.70
$30 or more - 1 in 25.08
$50 or more - 1 in 28.61
$75 or more - 1 in 1,185
$100 or more - 1 in 6,568
$500 or more - 1 in 83,908
$1,000 or more - 1 in 116,800
$10,000 or more - 1 in 182,500
$50,000 or more - 1 in 486,667
$100,000 or more - 1 in 730,000
$1,000,000 - 1 in 1,216,667
Out of all 27 games:
Ranks 6th on winning $50,000+
Ranks 3rd on winning $5,000+
Ranks 8th on winning $1,000+
Ranks 16th on winning $250+
Ranks 20th on winning $100+
Ranks 26th on winning 8-10x your $ or better
Ranks 26th on winning 6-8x your $ or better
Ranks 6th on winning 5x your $ or better
Ranks 15th on winning 4x your $ or better
Ranks 22nd on winning 3x your $ or better
Ranks 3rd on winning 2x your $ or better
Ranks 6th on winning any prize
The good news: 12 grand prizes of a $1mllion and it's got the 3rd best odds for a $5,000+ win. The bad news: it has odds of 1 in 1,185 to win more than $50. It's a clone / replacement for $10 Fortune, yet Diamond has only 2,049 prizes of $100 while Fortune had 10,698. Diamond does have 30% more $50 prizes tho. Odds of 1 in 19 to win more than $20 for a $10 cost isn't that appealing to me. If you uncover a "STAR" symbol that doubles your prize, but the odds for that are 1 in 25 and you can only win 2x$10 or 2x$25. You can win twice on this game, at odds of 1 in 21, but it's only $10+$10 or $10+$15. You can also win 3 times, at odds of 1 in 203, but it's only a lousy $10+$10+$10. I rate $10 Diamond Payout 49/100 making it 10th out of all 27 games and it ties $10 Fortune for worst $10 ticket.
[PDF]MONEY MULTIPLIER - OLG
Deletewww.olg.ca › assets › game_fact_sheet
@Doug: Since you asked....
ReplyDeleteI guess what would save some wear and tear on my collection of stones and cups (one day I will buy a calculator!) would be:
1) A top 5 or top 10 list of games with their small prize payback percentages. How you choose to do this is up to you, whether you define small prizes as $100 and under or under $100 or by odds of winning is entirely up to you;
2) An unadjusted-for-cost-and-prize jackpot listing. This is similar to one of CL66's lists but does not discriminate against games which focus on a high number of "smallish" top prizes like 500 Frenzy and Fast 200s -- really just the best odds of hitting the 'top' prize;
3) Lists always sound better when there are greater than two items.
I'll still be checking in occasionally but I've been tapped to run the family business' new acquisition, a 49% ownership of some sort of gaming consortium. Ok, before you contact me... this IS a joke. LOL!
TmF
By the way, if I won the Lotto Max, I would take the $60M as 4.5B new American pennies so I could be a 'billionaire' of sorts. Then I'd pour some on my bed and roll around on it like Demi Moore.... Hey! When you've got this much cash you can afford to be a little crazy!
ReplyDeleteTmF
$1 Lucky Lines Express - Review
ReplyDeleteGrand prize: 4 x $10,000
Low level prizes: $50 / $10 / $2 / $1
Number of tickets: 3,040,000
Odds to win:
any prize - 1 in 3.84
$2 or more - 1 in 7.44
$10 or more - 1 in 44.77
$50 or more - 1 in 2,989
$10,000 - 1 in 760,000
Out of all 27 games:
Ranks 20th on winning $5,000+
Ranks 22nd on winning $1,000+
Ranks 25th on winning $250+
Ranks 26th on winning $100+
Ranks 1st on winning 8-10x your $ or better
Ranks 1st on winning 6-8x your $ or better
Ranks 16th on winning 5x your $ or better
Ranks 20th on winning 4x your $ or better
Ranks 25th on winning 3x your $ or better
Ranks 14th on winning 2x your $ or better
Ranks 18th on winning any prize
The good news: uhm .. er... well... it takes time to play. The bad news: odds of 1 in 45 to win more than $2. It's a $1 ticket, you get what you pay for, so it ain't much. In my view, only $3+ tickets are worth playing. I rate $1 Lucky Lines Express 34/100, making it 25th out of all 27 games and as the 2nd worst $1 ticket.