Back to base after a visit to the Somme Battlefields of WW1 and being stranded in Charlotte, North Carolina on the way home. Lovely town. Three Grand Prizes were claimed in Bingo over the past two weeks and 18 in the "democratic" Wild 10's game. Scrabble #1799 is the top pick but only 10% (340,000 tickets) remain and only 1 Grand Prize. The game could turn into a dud any day so be alert.
Your odds of winning the $75,000 Grand Prize are 340,000:1 which is the best of any game for sale with the exception of Wild 10's. In that game you trade off a low Grand Prize of $10,000 against 69 unclaimed Grand Prizes. Scrabble returns $.073 of every dollar left to be spent to that one Grand Prize. This is more than even two of the $10 - $20 games and first among $3 games.
You are likely to face the common problem of scarcity with only 10% of the float left to be sold. Will the OLG order up that final print run or not? An initial tour around my neighborhood was fruitless.
No new games were added although readers have been doing their homework and we know that new ones are slated for introduction including a new More Lucky Lines game. The gall of them!
I also intend to alter my formula for game evaluation this week. The current formula yields a rating based upon the product of: the ratio of revenue going to Grand Prize winners at the introduction of the game versus now, the chances of cashing for a prize greater than the cost of a ticket, and the overall percentage of revenue returned to the player. I intend to introduce a factor that will add the percentage of revenue going to winners of more than the cost of the ticket but less than $100 and twice the percentage of revenue of winners of $100 and more.
Devising the formula is tricky as it involves a value judgement. Instant Game players enjoy playing the games. If our only concern was the Grand Prize then we would all be playing Lotto Max. That said, we cannot disregard the Grand Prizes as it makes no sense for us to play games for which all the Grand Prizes have been claimed. Finding that middle ground is the challenge and I'm happy to receive your input as to what is important to you as a player.
The current Bonus Cash for Life game is a case in point. I rate it highly as the game returns 69.89% of all revenue to players. This is a number that you expect to see for $10 games, not a $4 game. That's the "bonus", I imagine. Your chance to cash any ticket is 1 in 3.99 which is 6th of 7 in the group. Your chance to cash for more than the $4 cost of the ticket is 1 in 6.74 which is 3rd of 7 in the group. The 5 Grand Prizes of $675,000 is a big plus. That represents $3,375,000 of winnings over 6.2 million $4 tickets or $.136 per ticket. Wild 10's, on the other hand, has 69 remaining Grand Prizes of $10,000 each. Yes, your chances of winning are less than 1 in 10,000 but the total winnings of those 69 winners is only $690,000 for your $10 investment, or $.107 per ticket sold. With 150 Grand Prizes in Wild 10's, the number of prizes claimed is much more likely to track overall ticket sales. This is not the case when there are only 5 Grand Prize winners. In that game, a third of the tickets have been sold and all 5 Grand Prizes remain outstanding. Of course, as Pete Townsend told us, "We Wont Be Fooled Again."
Evaluating these two very different games is difficult. I can't say that I am entirely happy with my current method and that's why I intend to tweak it slightly. I'm looking forward to seeing where that leads me.
It's good to be home. Look for the blog to be updated weekly from now on.
Doug
Your odds of winning the $75,000 Grand Prize are 340,000:1 which is the best of any game for sale with the exception of Wild 10's. In that game you trade off a low Grand Prize of $10,000 against 69 unclaimed Grand Prizes. Scrabble returns $.073 of every dollar left to be spent to that one Grand Prize. This is more than even two of the $10 - $20 games and first among $3 games.
You are likely to face the common problem of scarcity with only 10% of the float left to be sold. Will the OLG order up that final print run or not? An initial tour around my neighborhood was fruitless.
Top Rated Games
- $3 Scrabble #1799 - 10% of float left to sell +/- 3%
- $4 Bonus Cash for Life #1168 - 63%, +/- 3%
- $3 Fruit Explosion #1803 - 14%, +/- 3%
- $10 Prestige #1741 - 23%, +/- 7%
- $10 Fortune #1779 - 94%, +/- 8%
Games to Avoid
- $5 Win Take All - All Grand Prizes claimed, still 20% of float left to sell. Beware!
- $2 Crazy 8's - All Grand Prizes claimed, 33% of float left!
- $5 Jacks are Wild - Only 1 of Seven Grand Prizes left and 45% of the float left to sell.
- $1 Lucky Lines - Terrible game from many points of view. Avoid!
- $3 Bingo - the game has been hollowed out. One chance in 1.2 million to win $75,000.
$1 - $2 Game Update
Cash Cow and Royal Seven's are each much preferable to the other two.$3 Game Update
Two of the top five games are in this group. Stick to them. Next in line is Cashingo.$4 - $5 Game Update
Bonus Cash For Life is the strongest play in this area.$10 - $20 Game Update
Avoid Cadillac and Extraordinary.Comings and Goings
Classic Gold, Sapphire 7's and Blazing 7's were all retired over the past two weeks. Classic Gold was an Inter-Provincial game that was kept on the shelves too long with no Grand Prizes. Sapphire 7's caused great irritation to More Lucky Line players as its tickets were always available despite it being devoid of Grand Prizes. Blazing 7's had reached the end of its life with one prize outstanding.No new games were added although readers have been doing their homework and we know that new ones are slated for introduction including a new More Lucky Lines game. The gall of them!
Personal Play
Last post I narrowly escaped being shut out. It proved to be a prelude to this week. Two Bonus Cash for Lifes and two Wild 10's returned nothing. My ROI for the year dips to 65% and my cash rate sits at 33%.To Conclude
I read with interest the comments related to how Texas runs its Instant Game process. Lots to be learned there. I bought a two pound ticket in London last week and will be taking a look at how the British handle their Instant Games.I also intend to alter my formula for game evaluation this week. The current formula yields a rating based upon the product of: the ratio of revenue going to Grand Prize winners at the introduction of the game versus now, the chances of cashing for a prize greater than the cost of a ticket, and the overall percentage of revenue returned to the player. I intend to introduce a factor that will add the percentage of revenue going to winners of more than the cost of the ticket but less than $100 and twice the percentage of revenue of winners of $100 and more.
Devising the formula is tricky as it involves a value judgement. Instant Game players enjoy playing the games. If our only concern was the Grand Prize then we would all be playing Lotto Max. That said, we cannot disregard the Grand Prizes as it makes no sense for us to play games for which all the Grand Prizes have been claimed. Finding that middle ground is the challenge and I'm happy to receive your input as to what is important to you as a player.
The current Bonus Cash for Life game is a case in point. I rate it highly as the game returns 69.89% of all revenue to players. This is a number that you expect to see for $10 games, not a $4 game. That's the "bonus", I imagine. Your chance to cash any ticket is 1 in 3.99 which is 6th of 7 in the group. Your chance to cash for more than the $4 cost of the ticket is 1 in 6.74 which is 3rd of 7 in the group. The 5 Grand Prizes of $675,000 is a big plus. That represents $3,375,000 of winnings over 6.2 million $4 tickets or $.136 per ticket. Wild 10's, on the other hand, has 69 remaining Grand Prizes of $10,000 each. Yes, your chances of winning are less than 1 in 10,000 but the total winnings of those 69 winners is only $690,000 for your $10 investment, or $.107 per ticket sold. With 150 Grand Prizes in Wild 10's, the number of prizes claimed is much more likely to track overall ticket sales. This is not the case when there are only 5 Grand Prize winners. In that game, a third of the tickets have been sold and all 5 Grand Prizes remain outstanding. Of course, as Pete Townsend told us, "We Wont Be Fooled Again."
Evaluating these two very different games is difficult. I can't say that I am entirely happy with my current method and that's why I intend to tweak it slightly. I'm looking forward to seeing where that leads me.
It's good to be home. Look for the blog to be updated weekly from now on.
Doug
Crazy 8's should be retired..OLG likely going too milk that game for as ling as they can...
ReplyDeleteCashcow took a hit..lol..it was looking like a playable game until today's olg update..
Royal 7's not too bad I'll grab a few later today..I was gonna get some pokerlotto but realized it went late last night and then again this morning..kinda sucks to be the guy who won it this morning. .lol..big prize difference..
My results for last couple days:
ReplyDelete3 royal 7's. .win $7
3 fruit explosion ..win $23
8 cashingo. .win $12
8 scrabble. .win $15
9 keno. .win $23
19 bonus cfl ..win $38
12 crossword tripler (new)..win $20
Spend $226 Win $138 lose $88..61%return..
Found a retailer with scrabble and bought his last 8 tickets and his last 3 fruit explosion. .and some stores have lots of cashingo and keno while most are out of those games up my way.
DeleteDoug why do you say avoid cadillac? We have 60% of the float in Ontario which means we should get 6 of the 10 grandprizes and 6 of the 10 cars. .2 grand prizes are claimed and I'm not sure but I think only the first one went in Ontario. .another car was claimed and I think almost all the cars went too us already..you and cl66 disagree on that game but I think I agree with cl66 that it's a decent game..
ReplyDeleteDarth,
DeleteCadillac is a bit of an odd ball game for my algorithm. It suffers as only 3.8% of the game's revenue is returned to the Grand Prize winners and this is by far the lowest for the $10 - $20 games. It is actually lower than for the current $5 games. It also has an abundance of tickets where you only get your money back. I don't count that as a win.
On the other hand, it has an unusually high amount of prizes of between $100 and the Grand Prize. My system, at present, does not give the game credit for that. In the end, the game is just OK in my rankings but I expect more for a $10 game. When I update my spreadsheet the new formula will give the game some extra credit. I'll be interested to see if I change my tune as a result.
Best.
I know of one store in my area that still has prestige. I bought one today, won $20,I am a happy camper. Now, do I go blow it all on scrabble and fruit explosion? I know of a sure that has a more of both.
ReplyDeleteLast time I bought scrabble, about 3 weeks ago, I bought over 30 tickets and only has 5 or 6 winners, all very small prize amounts. I am reluctant to invest in it again... Maybe fruit explosion would be better?
Fruit Explosion is not a bad choice. If I had had your experience with Scrabble, I'd be bailing out too :-)
ReplyDeleteMy take on scratch games is based upon, grand prizes at the best odds, not being the main reason for choosing what to play. I have played scratch tickets for some 25 years now, and i have never won a grand prize, i have never known anyone who has, and most likely i never will either - lol. I look at games as to what they have to offer across a wide range of prizes and the odds on such. What is more realistic to expect in a win while still offering a nice grand prize. My ranking of a game is based upon on how well a ticket may do at 7 prize levels, the odds on: winning your ticket price back / $50+ / $250+ / $1000+ / $5000+ / $50,000+ and overall odds to win any prize, and then compares that against all other games. A game, such as Bonus CFL, places 19th, 21st, 16th, 14th, 17th, 6th and 22nd amongst the 24 games in these 7 categories. If this was a horse race, Cash-For-Life is an appealing name, but when his average finish is 16th from a field of 24 horses, i wouldn't bet often on him - lol. Cadillac Riches places 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 8th, 5th and 4th in the 7 categories. An average finish of 4th place makes this horse ideal to bet upon. My ranking of games is always based upon current stats taken from the unclaimed prize listing at the OLG site, and i try to make this available once every 3 or 4 days so it's relevant. It is my suggestion to use this as a basis for what scratch ticket one may choose to play, but i also suggest you weigh in your own actual experiences on a ticket, in deciding what you play. Good luck everyone! ^_^
ReplyDeleteCL66,
ReplyDeleteIt is a challenge to evaluate these games. Every approach must have an inherent bias and then goes on to evaluate the games on the basis of that bias. My approach may be a bit top heavy and I am looking at ways to soften that somewhat. Your approach deals only with the quantity of prizes available.
The weakness to your approach is that it fails to take into account the amount of revenue that goes to the winners of the larger prizes and overemphasizes the value of smaller prizes. Cadillac has an extremely high number of prizes worth the cost of the ticket. Your chance to win any prize is 1 in 3.28 tickets but your chance to win anything more that the cost of the ticket is 1 in 7.11 tickets. The first number is fine but the second one is terrible for a $10 game. Further, only $.038 of every dollar spent goes to the 10 Grand Prize winners at the launch of the game (that has now increased to $.046). That is less than half of any other $10 game. Using your approach, a game without any Grand Prizes left could still be a recommended game. In my view, although we are playing these games because their prize structure is more democratic than Lotto games, we're still trying to win one of those Grand Prizes and once they are gone the game is no longer playable.
The more that I look at these games the more I am aware that there is more that makes them similar than what makes them different. There are odd ball games like Wild 10's where the game begins with 150 Grand Prizes. At the other end of the spectrum are the Cash For Life games that offer large Grand Prizes when compared to the cost of the ticket. When that happens there is always a trade off. These sorts of games risk being either overemphasized or under emphasized based upon the evaluation approach.
As for your horse race analogy, betting horses is all about value. The most likely winner is most often not the best bet. It is the horse that represents the best chance of winning versus its odds that counts. The same applies here: it is not the game with the most prizes necessarily, it is rather the combination of prizes and the size of those prizes versus the cost of the ticket that counts.
Still, I know that folks appreciate your input and it provides readers with useful information. Differing points of view are healthy. Best of luck.
Doug
I didn't buy any tickets last week but I decided to go get some CFL today. The store however was empty of it and everything else $5+ except $200 Million. So I bought one of them instead and won $40.
ReplyDeleteProbably for the best.
I've seen people buy entire packs of the $20 games a few different times now..makes me wonder if they know something I don't. Lol..I had a brief tlk with one guy who claimed he won $5k once and several $1k and multiple $500 prizes..he was also a big Nevada ticket player..I guess with enough volume you should expect some results. The funny thing was he was driving what looked like a $500 car..things that make you go Hmmm. .
ReplyDeleteas ugly as the keno tickets are it seems hard to lose on them..absolutely full of $3, $5 and $6. .today played 6 keno had 4 winners a $5 and 3×$3. ..
Hey Doug and CL66, My wife and I do appreciate the effort both of you put in here as I'm sure others do. We went a bit off the path on Saturday and I'm glad we did.
ReplyDeleteSaturday play.
1 $10 Caddy won $0 - Have never won a damn thing on these.
1 $5 Cross Triple won $30 - My wife usually does pretty good on these ones.
1 $3 Cross won $15 - A rare win but I do like playing it.
2 $3 Horseshoes won $3 - Don't really like this one but my wife bought them when she couldn't find Scrabble.
Cost $24 got back $48 Makes for a good day.
Add a few more to the cancelled list..
ReplyDeleteactivation end date:
Sept 26 ,cashingo
Sept 26, 1766 (older)crossword tripler.
Still not seeing crazy 8's on the cancelled list or the older $3 crossword ,I thought was next inline.Lol. .making room for the new more lucky lines next week.
I bought 6 of the new cash in game and wasn't impressed..spend $30,two wins at $5 each..I guess I'll wait for the full details and look at Doug and cl66's input.
Hi Doug
ReplyDeleteGlad your back and I hope it's for awhile I miss reading your blog when your on Vacations.
I wanted to tell you that in my little town last week a woman won 50,000 on the 3.00 crossword.
A guy won 1000,00 on the 5.00 pearl game last month and another guy won 5,000 on the Cadillac game, for a small town we do pretty good here now I just have to get a nice win like a lot of us on this Blog.
Scrabbles are impossible to find but I have found a lot of Fruit Explosions I bought 4 and won 6.00, better then winning nothing...
Good luck to everyone on the Blog this week, I may have to venture out to the rural areas and see what I can find.
Keep up the great work Doug even tho I don't comment often doesn't mean I don't read your blog all the time.
New $5 "Cash In" Ticket - My Review:
ReplyDeleteRating: 64/100 - 8th best out of 25 games - 1st place for a 5$ ticket
Top prize $100,000 x 7
Middle prizes $5,000 x 5 / $2,000 x 18 / $1,350 x 92 / $1,000 x 55
To win $50,000+: 1 in 367,200 - 2nd out of 25 games
To win $5,000+: 1 in 214,200 - 9th out of 25 games
To win $1,000+: 1 in 14,522 - 2nd out of 25 games
To win $250+: 1 in 8,400 - 4th out of 25 games
To win $50+: 1 in 239 - 6th out of 25 games
To win under $50 to $10: 1 in 7.65
To win the ticket price back: 1 in 9.30 - 16th out of 25 games
To win any prize: 1 in 4.13 - 24th out of 25 games
2,570,400 total tickets
For it's initial start, this ticket fares quite well. It's only noticeable negative is it's odds at the low end. The odds to win any prize, is 1 in 4.13, which makes it the 2nd worst game in that category. To win your 5$ back is 1 in 9.30 which isn't good. To win a prize of 10$ to under $50 is 1 in 7.65 or 3 in 23 which is so-so. It is quite good on 50$+ and every other higher $ category tho. With a smaller print run that any of the other $5 tickets, if this game holds on to most of it's 177 $1,000+ prizes for awhile, it could easily become a top 5 game to play, so long as you don't mind not winning small prizes often on it.
Thnx for your insight on the new game cl66. .
ReplyDeletetoday tried another 4 cash in 1 winner of $5 I think I'm laying off that game for the time being. .I'm getting real excited about bonus cfl...it's approaching a 50% float with 13 of 15 big prizes left..lol..may soon do some volume ticket purchases for testing on that game haha..
also today played 4 bcfl 2 winner ticks , $4 and $8.
Not seeing scrabble or fruit explosion or cashingo anywhere..
GL everyone
Retailers commision :
ReplyDelete8% for instant games +additional 3% for prize redemptions under $200.
5% for online terminal games +additional 2% for prize redemptions under $300
There is additional additional commissions paid for selling grandprizes and high value prizes but the percentages are substantially lower..
That being said we have a local retailer of foreign nationality who is very ignorant and unprofessional.he acts like you're bothering him when doing purchases and practically throws tickets at you(actually had to pick tickets off the floor once when he tossed them) and another time I played a pokerlotto with all in and he never played the all in for me and his reply was "its a suckers game ,I just saved you a dollar"..
...it's not a matter of him disliking me personally as some of my friends have had similar experiences there..
..with the commision they get paid you should expect some courtesy and like some retailers they almost promote their game's. .my favorite retailer sometimes saves tickets just for me and when I play pokerlotto he gets excited and cheers ..its great..and you always get a thank you ,come again..
I already avoid the said retailer but I may call OLG and stir the pot a bit.because when im looking for hard too find tickets I can't avoid that guy..he's also the guy that let me cash in around $60 in winnings and then told me I had to buy more tickets because he didn't have enough cash..WTF..lol..I was going too roll my winnings over anyway but I should have the choice if I wanted cash..
Rant finished THNX
The 2 places i always go to are really nice, they give me free candies and pop all the time
DeleteI love happy people, it's contagious ..but sigh... so is Ebola
DeleteI won $1350 on the last Cash In so I feel obligated to try again this time. 2 tickets. 1 dud, 1 $25. So far so good.
ReplyDeleteTwo profitable trips. As long as I avoid CFL I find I do alright return I wise.
Yes definitely nice prize I would try it again also..good luck.
DeleteI wouldn't - at least with an expectation of another $1000+ prize - to win once is about 14.500:1 - to win it twice, would be 1 in 14,500x14,500 - or about 21.75 million to 1 0_o lol
DeleteLondon free press wrote an article of the recent lotto max winner of $14M. The retailer got a seller's commission of $1,100. I hope the guy gives a nice tip to the owner because $1,100 is small.
ReplyDeletehaven't played lotto in a while, had to save up a bit so i could put a good set of new mods on my g35 :)
ReplyDeletegunna start again tho. last descent win was like 2 months ago won 155 on pokerlotto
Current Scratch Tickets Estimated Odds 1/2
ReplyDelete$50,000+
$3 FRUIT EXPLOSION 1 in 332,267
1 x $75,000
$5 CASH IN 1 in 363,200
7 x $100,000
$5 BLACK PEARLS 1 in 363,359
3 x $100,000
$10 CADILLAC RICHES 1 in 429,639
8 x $250,000 - 2 x $100,000
$3 CASHINGO 1 in 440,065
1 x $75,000
$4 BONUS CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 464,566
5 x $675,000 (1K$ WEEK LIFE) - 8 x $100,000
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (new) 1 in 473,220
14 x $100,000
$10 100 MILLION $ FORTUNE 1 in 488,648
12 x $1,000,000 - 6 x $100,000 - 10 x $50,000
$20 200 MILLION $ EXTRAORDINAIRE 1 in 599,734
7 x $2,000,000 - 13 x $200,000
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER 1 in 734,799
1 x $100,000
$3 HORSESHOES 1 in 868,000
2 x $75,000
$3 KENO 1 in 984,667
2 x $50,000
$3 CROSSWORD 1 in 1,152,022
1 x $50,000
$5 JACK$ ARE WILD 1 in 1,168,289
1 x $100,000
$3 BINGO 1 in 1,184,227
4 x $50,000
$3 CROSSWORD (new) 1 in 1,586,370
9 x $50,000
$4 CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 2,202,919
1 x $675,000 (1K$ WEEK LIFE)
$5,000+
$10 WILD 10`S 1 in 9,257
$3 FRUIT EXPLOSION 1 in 83,067
$5 JACK$ ARE WILD 1 in 89,868
$3 SCRABBLE 1 in 103,683
$3 KENO 1 in 179,030
$10 100 MILLION $ FORTUNE 1 in 180,028
$10 CADILLAC RICHES 1 in 195,291
$5 CASH IN 1 in 211,867
$3 CASHINGO 1 in 220,033
$3 BINGO 1 in 249,311
$5 BLACK PEARLS 1 in 272,519
$20 200 MILLION $ EXTRAORDINAIRE 1 in 315,650
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (new) 1 in 331,254
$2 ROYAL 7`S 1 in 381,082
$3 HORSESHOES 1 in 434,000
$1 CASH COW 1 in 411,876
$3 CROSSWORD (new) 1 in 419,921
$4 BONUS CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 431,383
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER 1 in 734,799
$1 LUCKY LINES EXPRESS 1 in 883,500
$3 CROSSWORD 1 in 1,152,022
$4 CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 2,202,919
Current Scratch Tickets Estimated Odds 2/2
ReplyDelete$1,000+
$10 WILD 10`S 1 in 7,833
$5 CASH IN 1 in 14,364
$3 KENO 1 in 17,428
$3 FRUIT EXPLOSION 1 in 18,459
$10 CADILLAC RICHES 1 in 21,269
$2 ROYAL 7`S 1 in 25,405
$5 WINNER TAKE ALL 1 in 26,133
$20 200 MILLION $ EXTRAORDINAIRE 1 in 26,774
$5 JACK$ ARE WILD 1 in 29,956
$4 CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 51,231
$3 HORSESHOES 1 in 82,667
$2 CRAZY 8`S 1 in 88,972
$3 SCRABBLE 1 in 103,683
$4 BONUS CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 107,846
$10 100 MILLION $ FORTUNE 1 in 116,941
$3 CASHINGO 1 in 220,033
$3 BINGO 1 in 249,311
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (new) 1 in 265,003
$5 BLACK PEARLS 1 in 272,519
$1 CASH COW 1 in 411,876
$3 CROSSWORD (new) 1 in 419,921
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER 1 in 734,799
$1 LUCKY LINES EXPRESS 1 in 883,500
$3 CROSSWORD 1 in 1,152,022
$250+
$5 WINNER TAKE ALL 1 in 2,589
$10 WILD 10`S 1 in 4,243
$10 CADILLAC RICHES 1 in 6,146
$5 CASH IN 1 in 8,475
$3 CASHINGO 1 in 8,981
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (new) 1 in 9,100
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER 1 in 9,301
$20 200 MILLION $ EXTRAORDINAIRE 1 in 9,460
$5 JACK$ ARE WILD 1 in 12,981
$3 KENO 1 in 17,428
$3 SCRABBLE 1 in 18,297
$3 FRUIT EXPLOSION 1 in 18,459
$4 CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 25,033
$2 ROYAL 7`S 1 in 25,405
$2 CRAZY 8`S 1 in 42,145
$4 BONUS CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 42,531
$10 100 MILLION $ FORTUNE 1 in 67,733
$3 HORSESHOES 1 in 82,677
$3 BINGO 1 in 249,311
$5 BLACK PEARLS 1 in 272,519
$1 CASH COW 1 in 411,876
$3 CROSSWORD (new) 1 in 419,921
$1 LUCKY LINES EXPRESS 1 in 883,500
$3 CROSSWORD 1 in 1,152,022
$50+
$20 200 MILLION $ EXTRAORDINAIRE 1 in 14
$10 CADILLAC RICHES 1 in 18
$10 100 MILLION $ FORTUNE 1 in 37
$10 WILD 10`S 1 in 66
$5 CASH IN 1 in 239
$5 JACK$ ARE WILD 1 in 265
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (new) 1 in 396
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER 1 in 397
$5 WINNER TAKE ALL 1 in 608
$3 CROSSWORD (new) 1 in 666
$3 CROSSWORD 1 in 666
$3 BINGO 1 in 799
$3 CASHINGO 1 in 846
$3 HORSESHOES 1 in 1,105
$3 SCRABBLE 1 in 1,183
$2 CRAZY 8`S 1 in 1,137
$5 BLACK PEARLS 1 in 1,162
$4 CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 1,392
$3 FRUIT EXPLOSION 1 in 1,432
$2 ROYAL 7`S 1 in 1,622
$4 BONUS CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 1,811
$1 LUCKY LINES EXPRESS 1 in 2,990
$3 KENO 1 in 6,078
$1 CASH COW 1 in 8,349
Odds to win your ticket price back:
ReplyDelete$10 CADILLAC RICHES 1 in 6.10
$3 KENO 1 in 7.00
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER 1 in 7.37
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (new) 1 in 7.37
$3 CASHINGO 1 on 7.57
$3 FRUIT EXPLOSION 1 in 7.73
$3 HORSESHOES 1 in 7.78
$3 SCRABBLE 1 in 7.78
$1 LUCKY LINES EXPRESS 1 in 7.94
$3 BINGO 1 in 8.28
$10 WILD 10`S 1 in 8.33
$2 CRAZY 8`S 1 in 8.71
$2 ROYAL 7`S 1 in 8.74
$3 CROSSWORD 1 in 8.75
$3 CROSSWORD (new) 1 in 8.75
$5 CASH IN 1 in 9.30
$5 BLACK PEARLS 1 in 9.34
$1 CASH COW 1 in 9.58
$5 WINNER TAKE ALL 1 in 9.79
$4 BONUS CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 9.79
$20 200 MILLION $ EXTRAORDINAIRE 1 in 9.98
$10 100 MILLION $ FORTUNE 1 in 10.48
$5 JACK$ ARE WILD 1 in 10.51
$4 CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 12.30
Overall odds of winning:
$3 KENO 1 in 2.70
$20 200 MILLION $ EXTRAORDINAIRE 1 in 3.00
$3 CASHINGO 1 in 3.24
$10 CADILLAC RICHES 1 in 3.28
$10 100 MILLION $ FORTUNE 1 in 3.28
$3 SCRABBLE 1 in 3.33
$3 HORSESHOES 1 in 3.41
$10 WILD 10`S 1 in 3.42
$3 BINGO 1 in 3.45
$3 FRUIT EXPLOSION 1 in 3.62
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (new) 1 in 3.70
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER 1 in 3.70
$2 ROYAL 7`S 1 in 3.74
$2 CRAZY 8`S 1 in 3.79
$1 CASH COW 1 in 3.80
$3 CROSSWORD (new) 1 in 3.84
$3 CROSSWORD 1 in 3.84
$1 LUCKY LINES EXPRESS 1 in 3.84
$5 JACK$ ARE WILD 1 in 3.86
$5 BLACK PEARLS 1 in 3.97
$4 BONUS CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 3.99
$4 CASH FOR LIFE 1 in 4.01
$5 CASH IN 1 in 4.13
$5 WINNER TAKE ALL 1 in 4.59
Wonder if one of the blog reader's nailed the final scrabble prize.
ReplyDeletei doubt it
DeleteWell it is possible, but I know it wasn't me - although it certainly wasn't from lack of trying lol.
DeleteCurrent Top Rated Games
ReplyDelete1 - $10 CADILLAC RICHES 85/100
2 - $10 WILD 10`S 70/100
3 - $3 FRUIT EXPLOSION 68/100
4 - $3 KENO 67/100
5 - $3 CASHINGO 66/100
6 - $5 CASH IN 65/100
7 - $20 200 MILLION $ EXTRAORDINAIRE 64/100
8 - $5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (new) 61/100
9 - $10 100 MILLION $ FORTUNE 55/100
10 - $3 SCRABBLE 52/100
11 - $5 JACK$ ARE WILD 51/100
12 - $3 HORSESHOES 50/100
13 - $5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER 49/100
14 - $3 BINGO 45/100
15 - $2 ROYAL 7`S 38/100
16 - $5 BLACK PEARLS 36/100
17 - $5 WINNER TAKE ALL 35/100
18 - $4 BONUS CASH FOR LIFE 32/100
19 - $3 CROSSWORD (new) 31/100
20 - $2 CRAZY 8`S 30/100
21 - $3 CROSSWORD 26/100
22 - $4 CASH FOR LIFE 25/100
23 - $1 CASH COW 18/100
24 - $1 LUCKY LINES EXPRESS 17/100
Current Top Rated Games (by ticket price)
$20 200 MILLION $ EXTRAORDINAIRE 64/100
$10 CADILLAC RICHES 85/100
$10 WILD 10`S 70/100
$10 100 MILLION $ FORTUNE 55/100
$5 CASH IN 65/100
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (new) 61/100
$5 JACK$ ARE WILD 51/100
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER 49/100
$5 BLACK PEARLS 36/100
$5 WINNER TAKE ALL 35/100
$4 BONUS CASH FOR LIFE 32/100
$4 CASH FOR LIFE 25/100
$3 FRUIT EXPLOSION 68/100
$3 KENO 67/100
$3 CASHINGO 66/100
$3 SCRABBLE 52/100
$3 HORSESHOES 50/100
$3 BINGO 45/100
$3 CROSSWORD (new) 31/100
$3 CROSSWORD 26/100
$2 ROYAL 7`S 38/100
$2 CRAZY 8`S 30/100
$1 CASH COW 18/100
$1 LUCKY LINES EXPRESS 17/100
Where was the Scrabble ticket won?
ReplyDeleteI think it was Ottawa.
DeleteBought 5 CFL from winnings this week. Do I even need to say what happened?
ReplyDeleteStarting over...
Backs up my rating of CFL as the 3rd worst ticket - 22nd out of 24 games - B-CFL doesnt fair much better - 18th out of 24 0_o
DeleteI just scratched a Bonus CFL, and woop-dee-doo, 4 fricken $'s - i guess i have bought a total of 20-25 of these by now, since it came out, and i only have won a total now of 3 times at it, and just $4 each time 0_o
DeleteHello! I have been reading the blog and comments here for the past couple of weeks. I would like to thank Doug and the rest of the community, namely CL66 and Darth, for their helpful insights! I have 2 questions:
ReplyDelete1) On the OLG website, access to the game "Fact Sheet" is public. However, where can I access current float information?
2) I am not very knowledgeable when it comes to Excel. Could someone point me in the direction of a spreadsheet where I can plug in numbers on an ongoing basis as I purchase scratch tickets in order to calculate cost vs winnings? I know this can easily be done on paper but I would prefer a digital version :)
My apologies if these matters have been covered on this blog in the past.
Thank you!
If you have a Google account you can use google drive and create spreadsheets. I did that for a year until I started tracking all my spending in Quicken.
DeleteDarth got it bang on, with his answer of extrapolation - there is no way to determine an precise float, even by the OLG themselves - while its made public the number of tickets for any game, the number of tickets actually printed is kept private - some games may have more than a single print run, which could mean a later print run being cancelled due to a game's prizes mostly claimed or due to poor ticket sales, as well as an effort by the OLG to save $ on printing costs - i don't know jack-s**t about spreadsheets either lol - i`m the same as Darth, a pen-paper(wordpad)-calculator dude ^_^ - when i do my "number crunching", it's like 3 hours-ish work, but i know it HAS helped me do better with what i play and i get karma from it since i share this info with everybody here :-)
DeleteJay - Thank you for pointing me to google drive! Are you aware of them having any decent templates? Maybe my approach is more trouble than it's worth, but having a system to"crunch the numbers" for me on an ongoing basis sure seems convenient!
DeleteHow has your experience been with Quicken so far?
Thanks again for your response!
CL66 thank you for your response! I had no idea about multiple print runs. Is it safe to assume that all of a game's Grand Prizes may not even hit retailers immediately if there are multiple print runs planned? If this is the case, I find it to be a bit deceptive on OLG's part, but perhaps my understanding is wrong.
DeleteI appreciate the time and effort you put into crunching and sharing the numbers. I find your stats to be very beneficial! It has made me more confident when I purchase scratch tickets. I at least feel like I am now adequately targeting my money rather than randomly throwing it at scratch tickets lol. Keep it up!
Thanks again! :)
A game tends to end with a 10% float. The last Prestige ticket ended with an estimated 22% float. That meant an estimated 3 million+ tickets. It is more likely that a final print run of that game was cancelled than all those tickets were reclaimed and destroyed. The OLG will try to keep costs down by not making tickets they know will end up having to be reclaimed. As well, to ease costs, to pay printing costs over time instead of all at once upfront, is why multiple print runs can occur.
DeleteLotteries use a random number generator to prouduce a sequence of winning tickets that lack any pattern. The number of tickets intended to be printed with the number of prizes and the amounts of the prizes are "fed in" to a "RNG" with specified parameters, such as: 1 in 5 to win x$. The result produces an AVERAGE of 1 in every 5th ticket to be a winner of x$, NOT every 5th ticket will be a winner. If say, 10 tickets were bought that were consecutively printed, tickets 1 and 2 could be the winners and tickets 3 to 10 are all the losers. Or perhaps, tickets 2 and 5 win and the others are losers, etc. With a grand prize, it is the same effect. A game can possiblly lose all of it's grand prizes early or maintain all of them late into its run, as evidenced by the last $3 Lucky Lines ticket. With Lucky Lines, the game was pulled, with a considerable ticket float remaining, leaving the impression that, a last print run of those tickets was cancelled and within them, were all the grand prizes. If this were true, then that game NEVER had a chance at any grand prize. The odds of this occuring are far off, but it is possible.
These practices may seem deceptive at first, but insight reveals it's more likely an unintended result. I beleive the OLG should have more transparency, by releasing information on print runs, advance notification of game cancelation dates and unclaimed prize listings for ALL prizes. This would then dispel any perception of deceptiveness. This is a government run public entity that is funded by the taxpayers. As a taxpayer and a lottery player, i feel i should have the right to know these things.
For now, i will continue to do my number crunching and share my results, insights and opinons here on Doug's blog so that we may all do better. Balance my suggestions with your own actual results to try and get the mosts out of your $. I encourage everyone to post about anything lotto related, the more of us doing so, will further help us all. ^_^
Well said CL..they need more transparency..
Deletewith bonus cfl I've had 4 winners in a row once all tickets in numbered order..also I think I remember seeing 12 consecutive losers all in order by #s. I think the bonus CFL r.n.g. is a bit wonky ..
On game fact sheet the "so called number of printed tickets and released tickets"info is there..I used so called because there is ongoing speculations here about Olg procedures on printing and releasing of batches of tickets. .
ReplyDeleteas for current float size it's called extrapolation that info is not publicly accessible. You use the unclaimed prizes page and use the most abundant prizes then estimate the current float.
example : if 500 prizes are left out of 1000 prizes ..you assume with reasonable accuracy the float is 50% sold...hope that helps..you can also go back and check previous months of this blog , perhaps there's a better example from Doug or cl66. .
I can't help on spread sheet ..im paper pencil and calculater , and I don't keep very good records ..i more look at it weekly instead of long-term. .I've started a small photo album on my phone of my over $50 winner
Deletetickets...lol.
GL
Thank you very much! Your explanation of extrapolation is very helpful. Now I feel like I can make more educated purchases instead of just randomly picking the nicest looking scratch cards lol.
DeleteI hope your phone photo album quickly grows from small to large! :)
Cheers
They have advertising all over stores here... Been up since last week. No start date was mentioned anywhere which is anoying at least when the Wheel of fortune came out they had a start date announced. Will definitely testing this one out because it seems at the start of new watch and win games you win more offten on the instant part to get you 'hooked' when poker lotto came out everyone i know was getting $25,$50,$75 instant wins like all the time but now your lucky to win $2 lol.
ReplyDeleteHere in the Scarborough/Toronto area, i haven't seen any advertising yet for NHL Lotto - with Poker lotto, i agree, wins at first seemed to be above average, but myself, from about the end of this last july to mid september, i had 4 wins over $50 - one was $500 from the nightly draw that i matched 4 out of 5 on / the other 3 were all instant wins - double regular $ amount, since i always play all-in, they were $100, $150 and a $350 win - so in the last 2 1/2 months i`ve won $1.100 with Poker Lotto, not including any small wins ^_^
ReplyDeleteWith Scrabble's top prizes now gone, I know the majority of stores will stop selling the tickets. For those few who still carry Scrabble, is there any point in buying these tickets for the $25,000/$15,000 prizes? Or is it best to move on to another game?
ReplyDeleteThere's now only 2 prizes (1 $25K + 1 $5K) worth more than $300 available with an estimated 300,000 tickets remaining - the odds to win $50+ on it are about 1,120:1 - so i wouldn't bother with this ticket at all, unless you don't mind playing it for wins of most likely just $3-$20. 0_o
DeleteTop prizes gone, Darth also gone..
ReplyDeleteI suppose if the float reached as low as 30,000 tickets I'd try a few..but I've never saw that before.and they'd be near impossible to find..like now they're already scarce..I recommend fruit explosion or cashingo..and of course bonus cfl if you like to gamble like me ..lol..
Keno is ok ..lots of small prizes.I'm also into royal 7's a bit..
DeleteGL
Whoops, somebody's already grabbed $100K on Cash In. Wasn't me, my first one hit the garbage pail. Glad to see Scrabble hit the garbage pail too.
ReplyDeleteI am surprised to see Crossword #3205 still being sold. I thought OLG would have canned the game by now as there is less than 10% of the float. I suppose it's that one elusive $50k prize that is keeping the game going?
ReplyDeleteMore likely - the OLG printed ALL the intended tickets for this game and would rather try to sell them instead of reclaiming them, as well, there are many people who buy this kind of ticket who don`t even bother to know if it actually has any good prizes remaining 0_o
Delete