Cash For Life #1167 - One Last Gasp

The piddly 14,000 tickets sold last week only hit one $100 prize and one $120 prize. There cannot be but a handful of loose tickets left for sale at this point. With a 35% profit per ticket and building in 30% cost of production/distribution etc, the OLG stood to make $144,000 by selling every last ticket. But somewhere in OLG headquarters sits a nice little $675,000 bonus for them. I know, I'm beating an old drum, but the whole situation does not sit well with me. It's like a giant pinata game and we're the blindfolded participants swinging wildly to find the mark, but there is no pinata. If you're lucky enough to find any tickets, scoop em up.


 

Top Rated Games

1. $4 Cash For Life #1167 - almost no hope.
2. $3 Crossword #3210 - only 5% of float left but that's one million tickets. 
3. $3 Scrabble #1861 - well rated on all factors and tickets should be available. 
4. $3 Crossword #3212 - best small prize return of any game.
5. $3 Keno #1417 - Very similar numbers to Crossword #3212. 

Games to Avoid

1. $1 Red Hot 50's #1827 - Wanna win $2? That's about all you can hope for. 
2. $2 Polar Bear #1862 - devoid of grand prizes, second worst Top Prize ratio.
3. $1 Hit 100 #1849 - A terrible way to waste a dollar. 
4. $10 Classic White #1844 - Devoid of Grand Prizes but 1/3 of the float remains. Very interesting.
5. $4 Cash For Life #1171 - don't buy one of these because you can't find any 1167's. 

Games Devoid of Grand Prizes

• Polar Bear
• Classic White
• More Lucky Lines

Comings And Goings

The OLG added three games this past week: $2 Walking Dead (rated 22nd of 32), $3 Fruit Explosion (rated 16th of 32) and $3 Quest For Gold Crossword (rated 12th of 32). The latter game offers a jumbo 26 million ticket float and should keep us running right up to the Olympics. I wonder how much of the money raised by this game goes to Olympic Athletes?

No games were retired which has the effect of bumping the total tickets for sale up to almost 120 million. That's a lot.

Personal Play

Nothing to report.

Post Script

Without much to report upon I always find it interesting to learn about other people's play. I have a friend who plays Pro-Line and always reinvests his profits in Scratch Tickets. He then saves all of the Scratch Tickets that he bought over the course of the year and he and his family scratch them all on Christmas morning. This year he had slightly over 100 tickets to scratch and managed to turn them into $200.

Someone mentioned several months ago about Breakout Tickets. I never really thought much about them but I intend to do some research on them over the course of the next week.

Cheers to all.

Doug

Cash For Life #1167 - Top Pick By Far

Folks, I am back from the home of the brave with empty pockets. A seventy cent dollar bites and $27 USD on Powerball tickets were for naught. That said, there was some hair-raising excitement. Check the Post Script for details.

During my absence, the game of choice plowed through another 110,000 tickets without revealing the last grand prize. There are a mere 650,000 tickets left (8% of float +/- 3%). Over 25 cents of every dollar spent on the game from here on will go to that Grand Prize winner. That is an extremely high figure for scratch games, especially when you can expect a small prize return of 57%. The game offers $712,600 of Top Prize prize money left but $675,000 of that amount will go to the Grand Prize winner. Once it's won (if it's won), this game will go from the penthouse to the outhouse.

 

Top Rated Games

1. $4 Cash For Life #1167 - not to be confused with its lame sibling #1171.
2. $3 Crossword #3210 - 11% of top prize money left and only 5% of the float. 
3. $3 Frosty #1864 - A good choice and tickets should be available.
4. $5 Merry Money #1863 - A good Christmas game
5. $10 Diamond #1781 - Best of the expensive games

Games to Avoid

1. $2 Polar Bear #1862 - Horrible game but lots of tickets available. Beware!
2. $1 Red Hot 50's #1827 - Stinker
3. $1 Hit 100 #1849 - Brand new game and it is awful (see CL66's review)
4. $30 250M Golden #1782 - have to tweak the formula to treat this game fairly
5. $2 Golden 7's #1824 - Poor top prize ratio and poor small prize return. 

Games Devoid of Grand Prizes

• $3 More Lucky Lines
• $2 Polar Bear

Comings and Goings

$5 Wild Card and $10 Holdiay Spectacular were both retired. Wild Card was devoid of Grand Prizes and Spectacular had 1 Grand Prize left and 29% of its float. Strange decision by the OLG.

Four new games were introduced: $1 Hit 100 (rated 27th of 29), $3 Lucky Dragon (16th), $5 Money Multiplier (15th) and $10 Wild Ten's (11th). In total, there an estimated 99 million tickets available for sale which is just about what the OLG wants to supply at any one time.

Personal Play

Nine losing Powerball tickets and one losing $5 USD $250,000 Cashfall.

Post Script

My friend in Deerfield Beach took me to buy my Powerball tickets to a convenience store near to his abode. It was called "Snappy's" but my friend referred to the proprietor as Snippy due to his gruff demeanour. He was right as I was given the back of his hand when I went in and couldn't understand what he was saying to me but I knew he wasn't wishing me good luck.

Two days after I bought the tickets someone attempted to rob the store and ended up shot to death! Here's the article: http://www.sun-sentinel.com/local/broward/deerfield-beach/fl-deerfield-store-shooting-folo-20160116-story.html If you want to see the difference between our society and theirs, it's all in this article. Snippy certainly did not need any trauma counselling after killing the would-be thief.

For those who had questions about buying Powerball tickets and not being in the USA, here is an explanation from Forbes: http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2016/01/12/why-you-cant-buy-a-1-4-billion-powerball-ticket-online/#2715e4857a0b133000652c95 .

And lastly, I saw an item today on the anniversary of the launch of PlayOLG. The OLG Spokesperson said that the OLG is very pleased with the progress of the site. Their infamous "Modernization" report forecasted annual revenue of $89 million and a profit of $35 million in year one. The OLG refused to release the actual results citing reasons of competition. What malarky! Competition with whom? Media Relations Director Tony Bitonti sent his subordinate to deliver that canard. The reporter should have pressed him on the point but, alas, it was not to be.

Happy winter to all. Remember: scratching tickets burns calories.


Doug

New Year Begins With Cash For Life #1167 Firmly On Top

The Christmas frenzy failed to unveil the last outstanding Grand Prize in Cash For Life #1167, leaving it as the clear choice of games to play. Only 200,000 of the tickets were sold since the last update as opposed to 800,000 of the new version of the game. There is now only an estimated 9% of the float left or 760,000 tickets. They will definitely be hard to find but do not settle for the new version. If you're one of the folks with a $2 off coupon for Cash For Life, spend some time scrounging around for version 1167.

 

Top Rated Games

1. $4 Cash For Life #1167 - 9% of float remaining (760,000 tickets), +/- 3%
2. $3 Crossword #3210 - 7%, 1.5 million tickets - +/- 1%
3. $3 Crossword #3212 - 72% - 10.6 million tickets - +/- 2%
4. $3 Frosty #1864 - 26% - 605,000 tickets - +/- 3%
5. $3 Cashingo #1847 - 20% - 600,000 tickets - +/- 6%

Games to Avoid

1. $30 250 Million #1782 - My rating system discriminates against this game. It is not the worst game. 
2. $1 Red Hot 50's #1827 - Even Lucky Lines is a better $1 game.
3. $2 Polar Bear #1862 - Did climate change melt all the grand prizes? None left. 
4. $5 Wild Card #1854 - Was a good game until all the Grand Prizes were claimed. 
5. $3 More Lucky Lines #1829 - Hate the franchise. 

Games To Play If All You Want Is A Grand Prize

1. $4 Cash For Life #1167
2. $10 Spectacular #1865
3. $4 Cash For Life #1171
4. $10 Diamond #1781
5. $20 Extreme #1780

Games Devoid Of Grand Prizes

• Polar Bear
• Wild Card
• More Lucky Lines

Comings and Goings

Cross Tripler #1830, 500 Frenzy, and Keno #1416 were all retired this past week. Keno was the best of the lot with one Grand Prize left outstanding and 18% of its float. Its retirement was a tad early but the new version of the game likely accelerated its retirement. Cross Tripler was down to 10% of its float and one outstanding Grand Prize.

New to the allotment is Jackpot. Benefiting from being released during the Christmas period, it has already sold 10% of its float. I rate it presently as the 6th best game which is unusual for a new game.

Personal Play

One losing 250 Million ticket. I have a poll question for readers: which is worse, losing on ten consecutive $3 tickets on losing on one $30 ticket?

Post Script

Thanks for all of the kind comments left recently on the blog. I am most appreciative of those who take the time to comment and/or number crunch. I've learned from your views and approaches to playing not only scratch games but other OLG games as well. I was very interested in the comments left by a couple of retailers a few weeks back. Very illuminating.

I even find the edgy conspiracy theories to be entertaining. Shelley (nice to hear from her) has suggested that I consider censoring the comments. I have only deleted three comments in all the time that I have been posting updates. I don't want to be a censor but I ask that all posters remain respectful in their comments. I will admit that a couple of recent posts were getting near the border of good taste. Another poster suggested that the blog be converted to require sign-ins in order to avoid the "Anonymous" posts that may get too edgy. I will look at that but I'm not very savvy when it comes to such matters.

A poster recently commented on the number of "old" people winning prizes. The OLG's Modernization Plan is designed to target that younger audience and women as a source of increased revenue. It stands to reason that older people would have more disposable income and women just have better things to do but please be comforted that the OLG is looking to make playing more appealing to those two demographic groups. Good luck to them.

Another poster suggested that the OLG produce an "App" that could be used to check tickets. No doubt the technology is there to do so. I think it's a brilliant suggestion and should be brought to the attention of the OLG. I will undertake to do just that on behalf of this community.

The Gift Pack must have been a popular item in Christmas Stockings this year. The game lost an astounding 34% of its float over the Christmas period. That was double the sales of the second highest expensive game, Diamond, and that game is sold nationally.

Finally, a shout out to the OLG workers who are currently locked out in Ottawa. Apparently, it's dangerous to delay people intent on losing their money on the slots:
http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/odds-poor-for-early-resolution-to-olg-slots-lockout

These folks have not had an increase in five years. The employer wants to give them a three year contract with 0% in each of the first two years and less than 1% in the third. They also want to open the language of their pension plans. The workers earn between $13 - $17 per hour.

I understand that the cheaper the wage bill is, the more the asset is worth to any future private contractor. Still, the tactics being employed by the OLG strike me as being pecuniary. It is also rich for the OLG's Director of Media Relations, Tony Bitonti, to be commenting on the situation. He is well paid in his position and can look forward to a first class pension. I'm not saying that he does not deserve one, but why are these workers any different?

Happy New Year everyone.


Doug

Cash For Life #1167's Reign Continues

It has been over two weeks since my last post and during that time Cash For Life #1167 has done nothing but improve its place on top of the current list of games.

Over the 18 days, an estimated 1.2 million tickets were sold without revealing the last remaining Grand Prize. Could it be in your Christmas stocking? Let the sugar plums dance. The rating for the game is heavily influenced by that last prize so if you're buying tickets for this game, ask the retailer for the most updated list of outstanding Grand Prizes as once that prize is gone - so is the game. There are presently 140 prizes left for the game valued at $100 or more. Those 140 prizes total $730,120. The one remaining Grand Prize is valued at $675,000 or over 90% of the remaining top prize cash.

Of the games that took a hit over the same 18 days, Wild Card lost all 3 of its remaining Grand Prizes and Polar Bear lost both of its Grand Prizes. Both of these games are to henceforth be avoided.

Top Rated Games

1. $4 Cash For Life #1167 - One big juicy prize left and 970,000 tickets to sell. 
2. $3 Crossword #3210 - High on all 3 scales but tickets are in short supply
3. $3 Keno #1416 - Still 18% of float left but has been identified for retirement. 
4. $3 Crossword #3212 - Its happy days when both versions of a game are recommended!
5. $10 Diamond #1781 - Best of the pricey games. 

Games to Avoid

1. $2 Polar Bear #1862 - Hope Santa doesn't leave you any of these suckers. 
2. $30 250 M Golden #1782 - tough game to evaluate given its cost and price values. 
3. $5 Wild Card #1854 - Wiped out over the course of the last two weeks. 
4. $3 More Lucky Lines #1829 - The Ghost of Christmas Past. 
5. $2 Golden 7's #1824 - A long run ahead and nowhere to go but up.

Games with Plentiful and Small Grand Prizes

1. $5 500 Frenzy
2. $1 Red Hot 50's

Games To Play If All You Want Is The Grand Prize

1. Cash For Life #1167
2. Diamond
3. Spectacular
4. Extreme
5. $250 M Golden

Games Devoid of Grand Prizes

• Polar Bear
• Wild Card
• More Lucky Lines

Comings and Goings

Super Bingo #3018 and Fast 200's were both retired over the past two weeks. Super Bingo had rated well and left with one Grand Prize of $50,000 outstanding and just under 1 million tickets. Fast 200's was the top rated game of its ilk and left with 823 of its $200 Grand Prizes outstanding.

New to the collection is Scrabble #1861. This is a 3 million ticket game with odds of 2,300:1 to win a prize of $100 or more. It enters play rated 13th of the 29 games currently for sale.

There are presently 112 million tickets for sale which is a bit high. I expect that we will see that number dip substantively in the week after Christmas. The game with the highest remaining float is Cash For Life 1171 with almost 15 million tickets available for sale. And we mustn't forget those million $2 off coupons floating around thanks to the Gift Pack.

Personal Play

Eleven Cash For Life tickets contained one winner of $4. Bah humbug!

Post Script

Sad to report that OLG workers at the Rideau Carlton Racetrack in Ottawa have been locked out by their employer http://www.ottawacommunitynews.com/news-story/6200590-rideau-carleton-raceway-slots-workers-locked-out-amid-labour-dispute/ . The issues seem to be financial and include pensions as the OLG prepares to shed these employees as part of their "modernization". I'm hopeful that the matter can be resolved soon given that we have seen similar OLG situations resolved elsewhere.

Here's an article from a statistics professor in BC who wants us to know that buying Scratch and Win tickets for Christmas is a mugs game:  http://globalnews.ca/news/2405668/statistics-professor-wants-consumers-to-scratch-lotteries-off-your-christmas-shopping-list/ . I have news for the professor - we already know and we play regardless, because its fun!

I bought my daughter (fully functioning young adult) two Cash For Life tickets as a pre-Christmas gift. She does not gamble in any way but she was excited to get them. She messaged me the next day to announce that one of the tickets was worth $6!. I realized that, to me, the tickets represented a cost of $8. To her, it was $6 of free money and she had fun winning it. There is a contrast buried somewhere inside there that cannot be captured by the good professor's regression formulae.

Here is a juicy tidbit for all the posters who are believers in conspiracy theories: https://news.worldcasinodirectory.com/add-kansas-to-4-other-states-where-lottery-prizes-may-have-been-fixed-19603 .  It couldn't possibly happen in Canada, could it?

My next post will be the first post of 2016 and will be published on New Year's Day. I wish all visitors to this blog a very Merry Christmas and to all the people who work at the OLG so that we can have fun responsibly playing these "sucker" games, thanks for all that you do.


Doug

Cash For Life #1167 Comes From Nowhere To Top The List

The OLG cleared house this week and after all the dust settled, Cash For Life is left occupying the top perch. I have never seen a game move up as significantly over the course of one week. A little over 200,000 tickets were sold last week without revealing the last Grand Prize. Your chances to win that prize are one in 1.9 million which is not very encouraging but the game offers a Top Prize ratio of 1.35 which is the best of any game currently for sale. The game has a Small Prize Payback figure of 57.1% which is .7% below the average of all games.

For those of you who are sitting on the $2 off on a CFL game included in the Gift Pack, you can get good value by using the ticket now rather than waiting for the new version of the game. If you do, check the Outstanding Prize list because if that ticket is redeemed, the game will take a serious hit.

Unfortunately, I can't include a good copy of the ticket as the new CFL game has been listed without the game actually being introduced for sale. It's not your eyes that are giving you problems, it's the file.

Top Rated Games

1. $4 Cash For Life #1167 - Came out of nowhere to take top spot.
2. $5 Wild Card #1854 - Lost a Grand Prize but still hanging in there.
3. $10 Diamond #1781 - Steadily improving its position.
4. $3 Cashingo #1847 - Last remnant of the good $3 games.
5. $5 Tripling 7's #1858 - Solid choice. 

Games to Avoid

1. $2 10X The Money #1839 - Last member of the family left alive. Kill it!
2. $3 More Lucky Lines #1829 - Love to hate this game.
3. $2 Polar Bear #1862 - Lost a GP early on. 
4. $1 Lucky Lines #1826 - No confusion - they both stink
5. $3 Bingo #3016 - 1 of 10 GP left and 24% of the float. 

Games With Lots Of Small Grand Prizes

1. 500 Frenzy
2. Fast 200's
3. Red Hot 50's

Games To Play If All You Want Is A Grand Prize

1. Wild Card
2. Cash For Life
3. Diamond
4. Spectacular
5. Extreme

Games Devoid of Grand Prizes

• 10X The Money
• More Lucky Lines

Comings and Goings

It was house cleaning week at the OLG. Three $1 games were all retired in addition to Sweet Cash. Of all those games, Bingo Express was the only one that I'm sorry to see go.

No new games were introduced. The total ticket float sits at 90 million which is normal. I expect that our friends will let that drop a bit before the new jumbo CFL game comes on line.

Personal Play

Nothing to report

Post Script

Excellent comments this week by an assortment of commentators. They are informative, helpful, and respectful. I thank all contributors for their effort and wisdom. Special note to Randy for his analysis.

The retirement of Bingo Express is welcome as it allows us to change the channel a bit. I have enjoyed the Spectacular versus Gift Pack debate. For me, neither game is of particular interest at this time but those gift packs do give you lots of tickets to scratch plus $2 off on what is now the top rated game. Still, the Grand Prize situation is of concern....

An interesting article that speaks to the elasticity of funds being expended on all kinds of gaming: http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/daily-fantasy-sports-spend-impacting-lottery-casino-play-538475311.html . I'm not sure if fantasy sports games takes away from lottery play or not. Lets remember that the OLG undertook its entire Modernization plan with the projection that, once completed, it would increase its contribution to the Provincial Treasury by over $1 billion per year. I've always wondered what they will say when it doesn't happen. Maybe excuses like the one above will make it into their speaking points.

News also from the OLG that progress is being made on the Northern and South Western bundles.

http://www.saultstar.com/2015/11/24/final-step-before-service-provider-chosen-to-run-certain-day-to-day-gaming-operations-for-regional-gaming-bundles

The Northern Bundle returned total revenue of $30 million in the first quarter of 15/16. Roughly the equivalent of the slots at Ajax Downs. With three existing points and the potential to build two new facilities in North Bay and Kenora, I am curious to learn how much a private contractor will pay for the right to invest and share profits. I cannot see how the OLG will ever see an increase in returns from this area. The South Western bundle returned $56 million or roughly the equivalent of the slots at Georgian Downs. In total the nine locations and potentially two new ones represented 17% of the total OLG returns.

And lastly, Tommy Middle Finger has indicated that his time spent entertaining us with his insights and analysis (all done with panache) will be reduced in the future due to competing priorities. See his post at the end of last weeks comments. Tommy has made this board much better than it would otherwise have been. I thank him for sharing his wisdom and sense of humour with us.



Doug

Cash For Life 1165 Meets Its End - Now Worst Game to Play

The party is officially over for Cash for Life 1165. The last Grand Prize was won in Ottawa yesterday. As reported last week, the game had been hollowed out meaning that when that last Grand Prize was won the game would go to the bottom of the list. There are no second prizes, no third prizes, 1 fourth prize of $5000, and 1 sixth prize of $500. The game had an impressive run and I'm glad that the OLG did not retire the game while that last prize was outstanding.

The new top rated game is Scrabble 1777 but a poster today suggested that this game was retired by the OLG today along with CFL 1165. That does not surprise me as only 7% +/- 3% of the float for that game remains and have not seen any of those tickets for a while.

I'll therefore skip to the next game which is $5 20x Lucky #1789. Twenty percent +/- 3% of the float remains for this game. Three of its Grand Prizes of $100,000 remain to be claimed. Your chances to win one are 190,000:1 versus 400,000:1 at the outset of the game.

Games to Play

1. $3 Scrabble 1777 (7% of float left to sell +/- 3%)
2. $5 20X Lucky 1789 (20%, +/- 3%)
3. $3 More Lucky Lines 1776 (42%, +/- 3%)
4. $20 Extraordinary 1742 (91%, +/- 4%)
5. $4 Cash for Life 1161 (47%, +/- 3%)

Note that the Cash for Life game recommended here is not the same one that was recommended previously.

Games to Avoid

1. $4 Cash For Life 1165
2. $3 Tetris 1793
3. $2 Fat Cat 1729
4. $1 Bingo Express
5. $3 Crossword 3205

$1 - $2 Game Update

Red Hot 50s is the top rated game in this group. Next best is Crazy 8s if you are looking for a better Grand Prize ($28,888 versus $50).

$3 Game Update

After spending months in purgatory, this group is coming more to the fore. Two of the top 5 rated games are in this area. Those two are much better than the others.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Apart from the two mentioned on the list of top games, Money Multiplier is also worth a try.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Extraordinary and Prestige are both playable. I fail to understand why the OLG has seven games available for purchase in this price range. They'll be selling these games for a long time.

Comings and Goings

More Lucky Lines 1775 was retired this week. It was a dud so salutations to our OLG friends.

Two new games came on line: $1 Cash Cow and $5 Win Take All.

A poster this week was speculating about the prize distributions for games in general. I measure them as follows: House Percentage - Win the Cost of the Ticket - Win More than Cost of Ticket and less than $100 - Win $100 or more, and less than the Grand Prize - Grand Prize.

Here is how the two new games shape up according to that breakdown:

Cash Cow - 40.0% - 10.4% - 47.6% - .3% - 1.6%.
Win Take All - 33.1% - 10.2% - 45.9% - 6.3% - 4.5%.

Based on this breakdown I expect that if you don't win the Grand Prize and you buy a sufficient number of tickets, you should expect a return of 58% for Cash Cow and 62% for Win Take All.

Personal Play

I can't say that I am unhappy that CFL 1165 is kaput. I purchased 82 of those suckers cashing on 26 of them (32%) returning $198 (60%). From the postings that I have seen of others, I should feel lucky. I don't. The numbers reported by others are very poor.

One poster reported going 0 for 15 on Crossword 3205. Although the game is rated poorly, players should expect to win with one out of every 3.84 tickets and a return of 64% even if they don't win a Grand Prize. The chances of going 0 for 15 are less than 1 in 100 - about the same as winning on four consecutive tickets. That sucks.

Meanderings

Thanks to everyone who measures his or her results and reports it on this blog. It is useful information for others and I enjoy keeping track of those results. The OLG would like us all to be individual players. There is always the chance that we may learn something about ticket distribution based upon this reporting.

I know that the OLG would testify under oath that tickets are distributed randomly but the company that prints the tickets uses algorithms in their production and there may be unintended flaws in those computer programs of which the OLG and the supplier are unaware. I know that the chances are not great but, at the same time, the pursuit is not altogether an exercise in alchemy.


Best to all.


Doug

Cash for Life 1165 Loses a Grand Prize - Remains the Choice

The party is now over. One of the Grand Prizes for Cash for Life 1165 was claimed last week in the east end of the 905 area. Strangely, a friend was on a business call to a company when he learned that one of the company's drivers had won one of the prizes. He took the $675,000 lump sum. The OLG site was updated the next day. I have asked him to see what he can learn about the timing due to the question posted to the site two weeks ago about delays in updating winning tickets. We'll see if he comes up with anything.

Regardless, the game remains the top choice but it is now wobbly. Apart from the remaining Grand Prize, there is only one $5000 prize and one $500 prize left to be claimed above the $120 prize level. I would therefore recommend that anyone playing the game check at the retailer or on the Scratch Odds App to be sure that the Grand Prize is still there. Once it goes, this game will likely become the worst rated game. An estimated 827,000 tickets +/- 4% remain to be sold so be careful.

Top Rated Games

1. $4 Cash for Life 1165 (12% of float remains, +/- 4%)
2. $3 Scrabble 1777 (7%, +/- 3%)
3. $5 Money Multiplier 1769 (32%, +/- 2%)
4. $5 20x Lucky 1789 (22%, +/- 3%)
5. $20 Extraordinaire (91%, +/- 4%)

Games to Avoid

1. Tetris
2. More Lucky Lines #1775
3. Fat Cat
4. Bingo Express
5. Crossword #3205

$1 - $2 Game Update

Bingo Express lost its last Grand Prize last week. The best choice is Red Hot 50s.

$3 Game Update

Scrabble 1777 is a strong choice but may be hard to find. Next best is More Lucky Lines #1776.

$4 - $5 Game Update

This is a strong area with three of the top five rated games. Stick to any of those choices.

$10 - $20 Game Update

The OLG (and ILC) are currently selling seven games in this area and we know that the public cringes spending that much on a ticket. I don't blame them. Prestige, Turbo Cash, and Extraordinaire are all reasonable choices.

Comings and Goings

Nothing to report this week. It's summer holiday time at the OLG.

Personal Play

I expanded my play last week and was predictably punished. Fourteen Cash for Life tickets contained 4 winners totaling $26. Very poor but not as poor as one poster who reports that he purchased 100 tickets and received only 40% of his investment back in winnings. The game returns 67% with 7% going to the Grand Prize winners. Knowing that he did not get the Grand Prize, he should have expected a 60% return and instead only received 40%. That is reason enough to abandon the game!

Meanderings

A reader left a comment this past week asserting that this blog is written by OLG staff to encourage the sale of bad games. That is not the case.

I write this blog as a hobby. My basic advice to anyone is not to buy these tickets or participate in any other OLG activity. Once you have discarded that basic advice, what I try to do is point you to the best choices and away from the poor choices. I am a critic of the OLG although, in fairness, I like to salute them when I feel that it is warranted. I have an interest in Horse Racing and therefore the Slots at Racetrack Program, slot machines in general, Casinos, and OLG Modernization. In all of those matters I have been a critic of the OLG and its strategic direction. On the other hand, my interaction with OLG employees has always been first class.

I thought that writing the blog would be a niche activity as Scratch and Win tickets are a simple form of entertainment for many people. I hope that anyone coming upon it would conclude that it is unbiased and helpful. If they do then I am more than happy.

I hope that your candidate was successful in yesterday's election.


Doug

Cash For Life #1165 Remains The Strong Choice

Two hundred thousand of the estimated remaining 2.3 million tickets (+/- 4%) were sold last week without revealing a Grand Prize winner. Your odds of winning a Grand Prize now sit at an estimated 1.06 million:1. An interesting aspect to this game is that it is rich in smaller prizes and the Grand Prize is favourably positioned. The trade off is the prizes between $100 and the Grand Prize are poor. It's a game that you can grind along with while trying to hit the jackpot. With an estimated 30% of the float left to sell and two of the original three Grand Prizes still up for grabs, the time is now.

Top Rated Games

1. $1 Cash For Life Family (13% of float left +/- 25%)
2. $4 Cash for Life Family #1165 (30%, +/- 4%)
3. $10 Prestige (40%, +/- 7%)
4. $2 Cash for Life Family (18%, +/- 2%)
5. $5 Cross Tripler #1755 (9%, +/- 2%)

Games to Avoid

1. $3 More Lucky Lines #1775 (19%, +/- 3%)
2. $2 Fat Cat (25%, +/- 4%)
3. $3 QFG Crossword (29%, +/- 1%)
4. $3 Bingo (53%, +/- 2%)
5. $3 Tetris (52%, +/- 3%)

$1 - $2 Game Update

Either Cash For Life game is a good choice as is the Red Hot 50's.

$3 Game Update

At long last we have a couple of good choices in this area. They are: Keno #1412 and Scrabble #1777. This is a treacherous area that also contains 4 of the 5 worst games currently for sale. Be alert.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Cash For Life #1165, Cross Tripler #1755 and Emerald 7's are all good choices. There is but one Grand Prize remaining in Emerald 7's and only 235,000 tickets left to sell +/- 60,000. Those are presently the best odds to win any Grand Prize.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Prestige and the two $20 Games are OK and continue to lumber on. $200 Million had its first $2 million winner in over eight months last week. The winner was not from Ontario as far as I can determine.

Comings and Goings

Cash In was retired this week three weeks after the last Grand Prize was claimed. It had 14% of its float left to sell +/- 3%. The jumbo game Crossword #3202 was also retired. The game was only introduced last November and it sold almost all of its 20 million ticket float. It was a poor choice so players who don't pay attention to such trivialities were done a favour by the OLG.

Taking their respective places are $5 Sapphire 7's and another $3 More Lucky Lines game #1776. The More Lucky Lines game is very much like its sister but buyer beware: the earlier version #1775 is devoid of Grand Prizes and currently tops our Games to Avoid list. Don't be fooled. The $5 Sapphire 7's game is very much like the Emerald 7's game that is also currently for sale. It looks OK but the Emerald 7's game is the better choice of the two.

Personal Play

I opened up this past week in search of the CFL Grand Prize. Ten tickets contained three winners totaling $16. Not good. I'm going to stick to this strategy until further notice.

Other Comments

A reader this past week commented on one Anthony Binkowski of Ottawa who won between $2000 and $5000 on four different occasions on Daily Keno and Ontario 49. It does seem unusual. I Googled his name without finding out much. I did find a young chap who I doubt has thousands of dollars that he pours into these games. There's a story there but I don't have any angles that seem credible right off of the top of my head. If you do, post away.

I downloaded the report from the Auditor General for Ontario http://www.auditor.on.ca/en/ on his recent review of the OLG's Modernization Plan. It is a long but interesting read. In short, the OLG's much heralded plan was overly optimistic, misrepresented some negative points, and lacked consultation. As a result, its implementation has been blockaded in major municipalities, is behind schedule elsewhere, and its projected positive outcomes scaled back based upon the AG's risk assessment.

My conclusion is that the Senior Management of the OLG was more committed to running the OLG like they were private casino operators with special powers than they were as an agency of the Government of Ontario. The fact that the Government of Ontario booked the OLG's wildly optimisitic revenue projections into its overall budget without questioning its merit, leaves me somewhat stunned.

It is clear to me why Mr.Godfrey and former CEO Rod Phillips and the previous board had to be replaced. I will provide readers with highlights of the report in coming posts.

The Kentucky Derby was won by the 5-2 favourite in a 19 horse field. He looked good but it was a short price on that horse. Congratulations to those who had him.

Doug

Cash for Life Family $4 Stays On Top

With two Grand Prizes left to claim and 2.6 million tickets left to sell, +/- 3%, the top rated game maintained its position over the course of the past week. That will change once the next Grand Prize for the game is claimed.

 The $1 CFL game is actually the top rated game but with the small number of reported prizes, we can only state a rating to +/- 25% and that is too large a margin to be relied upon. The game has one Grand prize left so if you can find any tickets for sale (I can’t, but a reader did) then give it a try.

Last week saw Grand Prizes claimed for QFG Crossword, Money Multiplier, and CFL Family $10. If your priority is winning a Grand Prize then Cross Tripler #1755 is your game. Your odds to win one of the four remaining $100,000 Grand Prizes are a low 221,000:1.

Top Rated Games

1. CFL Family $1 (13% of float left to sell)
2. CFL Family $4 (38%)
3. Prestige (42%)
4. Cross Tripler #1755 (11%)
5. CFL Family $2 (20%)

 Games to Avoid

1. Cash In (14%)
2. QFG Crossword (41%)
3. Bingo (62%)
4. Crossword (6%)
5. Blazing Sevens (71%)

Note that there are two versions of CFL $4 and Cross Tripler currently for sale. Be careful to choose the correct version.

$1 - $2 Game Update

It remains good days for this category of game. Either CFL game or Red Hot 50’s are good choices.

$3 Game Update

Keno #1412 is the recommended game. Be careful to avoid the new version #1414.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Avoid Cash In and 20X Lucky.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Avoid CFL Family $10 and Classic Gold. It has been eight months and almost 4 million tickets sold since $200 Million revealed a Grand Prize. Is it due or is it a dud? The game has been on sale for over a year and there is a new $20 game available. 

Comings and Goings

Cherry Triple was retired this past week. It was a lousy $1 game that had a permanent place on the “Games to Avoid” list. There was one grand prize and 757,000 tickets left to sell +/- 6%.

A second Keno game came on line this week. This version looks very much like the earlier version. The earlier game is, however, in an advantageous position so buy tickets for version 1412 and not the new 1414. One thing I like about this game is that the prize distribution looks like a pyramid. There should be progressively more of every prize working down to the smallest prize. That is not always the case. Just personal preference.

Personal Play

Six CFL Family $4 games started off with a bang with a $20 winner. The next five contained one $4 winner. For me in 2014, breaking even feels good. My cash rate is now 33% and my ROI is 63%.

Other News

The OLG is getting ready to launch its on-line gaming site. This is part of their "Modernization" plan. Other provinces already have a functioning site. The Quebec site is www.espacejeux.com .

Once up and running, you will be able to purchase certain lotto games, play on-line poker, and play slots on-line. According to their plan, overall slot play will flat line and even decrease in the province due to demographics. This initiative will bring gaming "closer to the customer". They project to earn an additional $100 million per year from the initiative. Other "modernization" plans that all involve having the private sector get involved, do it better, and increase revenue, will add an additional $180 million to the provincial coffers annually. 

I don't buy any of it. The OLG is aggressive in their clap trap about responsible play and ensuring that minors can't get on-line but, in my view, their actions belie their media lines. Slot machines are an evil menace and letting people play from home on their computers will not be good news for players who are addicted to those machines. There are many seniors who play slots but they can only do so when they actually get to a slot location. Now they'll be able to do it from their own bedroom. That cannot be good. I believe that people will slowly get their fill of sinking money into slot machines and that the revenue they generate will drop as a result. It is precisely that that the OLG is concerned about. Those machines account for over 80% of their profit. This desperate move on the part of the OLG will target players who have a weakness in this area and not the occasional players who play responsibly. 

But that's just me. If you're interested, you can follow them on twitter @PlayOLG. You can also follow me @Usockem. 

It looks like spring has arrived. Hats off to everyone for surviving the past two months. 

Doug  

Cash for Life Family $4 Takes Top Spot

I had a difficult time last week locating Cash for Life Family $2 tickets. They were nowhere to be found in my area, nor were the $1 version of the game. Happily, one of the two remaining Grand Prizes for that game was claimed last week thereby knocking the game down the rating chart. Its $4 sister game has overtaken in the rankings and now rests on the top of the chart. This game has two of its initial three Grand Prizes left to be claimed and an estimated 42% of its float left to claim. Players have one chance in 2.5 million to win $1000/week for life or, if it suits your fancy, a one-time payment of $675,000. Be careful if you choose to play this game as another version of the game, #1161, is for sale at the same time. That game is selling more slowly than the Family version of the game. Also note that the $1 version of the game is our actual top rated game although my confidence in the estimated number of tickets left to sell remains shaky.

Top Rated Games

1.       Cash for Life $1 (estimated 13% of its float left to sell)

2.       Cash for Life $4 #1165 (42%)

3.       Prestige (42%)

4.       Cash For Life $10 (60%)

5.       Cross Tripler #1755 (12%)

Games to Avoid

1.       Cash In (15%)

2.       Cherry Triple (24%)

3.       Quest for Gold Crossword (46%)

4.       Bingo (66%)

5.       Fat Cat (33%)

$1 - $2 Game Update

Either Cash for Life or the Red Hot 50’s Game are good choices. Avoid the rest.

$3 Game Update

The top game in this group was retired last week despite two remaining Grand Prizes and an estimated 900,000 tickets left to sell. Low sales, no doubt, is the reason why. The top rated game left is Keno #1412.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Avoid Cash In and Aces and Eights.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Avoid Classic Gold

Comings and Goings

Super Bingo was retired as mentioned above. It was the best rated $3 game and I’m sad to see it go. Two Grand Prizes each worth $50,000 went down with it.

A new Money Multiplier game #1769 was launched this past week. I like the fact that it has a present high of 6.4% of its total revenue returned to winners of between $100 and the second prize for the game. Most games are between 2 and 3 percent in this area. Of course, you pay for it with less prizes of less than $100 but I like the trade off. The only minor complaint I have is that there are fewer second prizes (4), than Grand Prizes (6). I don’t like that I have less chance to uncover a $25,000 prize than I do a $100,000 prize.

Personal Play

I managed to find a single $2 Cash for Life ticket that returned my $2. The remaining $4 Cash for Life tickets contained one $4 winner.

I also played the Poker Lotto game for $9 based on the recommendations from the comments section of the blog. I received an instant return of $5 and nothing on the draw that night. What is strange is that my three hands contained cards from 8 differing denominations (Ace – Deuce). I had zero correct on any line for the draw. What are the chances that all five cards drawn (there was a pair) would all be from the five denominations that I was missing? About 120-1! I need someone to explain to me why unusually unlucky outcomes happen to me with regularity but I can never win a decent prize. I’m sure that there is a reasonable explanation somewhere.

Other Topics

As I follow up to last week’s entry, I found an interesting story on line yesterday.  http://bit.ly/RnxoRN Whether the player was “cheating” or not is a subject of interest but I found the reader comment posted by glistens1 to be of interest. He/she suggests that how the lottery folks define the term random may be different than how you or I define the term. That may well be the case. It’s possible that tickets are distributed randomly but also towards rural areas more than overall sales would suggest. I’m not suggesting that it is so but it has tweaked my interest.

I close by declaring that I am not a fan of the “OLG Modernization” plan. I will write more on it in the future. You can familiarize yourself with what they plan to do, including on line slots and lottery ticket purchases, here. 

Best.

Doug

Cash For Life $2 Takes Over the Top Spot

I'm back from my vacation in Dubai where I can assure everyone there are no Scratch and Win tickets for sale. During my absence, Cash In got wiped out with all four of its remaining Grand Prizes being claimed.

The new top rated game is the $1 Cash for Life game but I really cannot recommend it due to the very limited sample size of top prizes that is recorded for the game. Many readers ask me where I get the figures I use when I speak to the number of tickets remaining. I estimate that number based upon the sample of tickets sold as represented by the reported top prizes. More information on this is included at the end of this entry. Although the $1 Cash For Life is the top rated game, the game only reports on the 15 total prizes that are recorded on the web site. With such a small sample, I can only state the numbers +/- 25%. That is way too much variation. Instead, I will recommend the second rated game, $2 Cash For Life. This game has 2 of its original 3 Grand Prizes left to claim and only 23% of its float left to sell +/- 2%. This is the first time since I began this blog that a $1 - $2 game has been top rated. It means that I can either get lots of tickets or save money this week. I wonder what I'll do?

 

Top Rated Games

1. Cash For Life $1 (13% of float left to sell)
2. Cash For Life $2 (23%)
3. Prestige (43%)
4. Cash For Life $4 (45%)
5. Cash For Life $10 (61%)

Note: The Cash For Life Family is dominating the ratings at present. If you are playing the $4 version be careful to play game #1165 and not game #1161.

Games to Avoid

1. Cash In (15%)
2. Cherry Triple (24%)
3. QFG Crossword (52%)
4. Fat Cat (35%)
5. Blazing 7s (79%)

$1 - $2 Game Update

Either Cash for Life is a good choice. Even Red Hot 50s is a good choice for those seeking a small but frequent Grand Prize.

$3 Game Update

Super Bingo continues its climb up the ratings. It is the first $3 game in some time to be rated as being playable.

$4 - $5 Game Update

The Cash For Life 1165 is a good choice as is Cross Tripler 1755. If you like the Cross Tripler game, take care to play 1755 and not 1766.

$10 - $20 Game Update

All the games here are a reasonable choice with the exception of Classic Gold.

Comings and Goings

Monopoly was retired this past week. It had one Grand Prize left and a modest rating. It will not be missed.

Tetris and a new $20 game were introduced. Tetris begins life as a mid range $3 game. Its potential will be determined by when and if its two Grand Prizes are claimed. If they remain unclaimed for some time then the game has the potential to move up the ratings.

The new $20 game is an inter-provincial game. Extraord is almost identical to $200 Million. The prizes are the same but the new game has a few more losing tickets tossed in. I find it interesting that this game has come on line. The old $20 game has been on sale for over a year and they are selling slowly. Canadians simply do not like to spend that much money on a scratch ticket. Now with two games on the market and people's propensity to choose new games over older ones, I will predict that the $200 Million game is in trouble. There are still over 7 million of these tickets left to sell and I have no idea how they will manage to sell them. It remains a better choice than the new game so if you like $20 games, feel free to help the sales for the $200 Million game.

Personal Play

A mixed bag of tickets a few weeks back contained a $25 Cash In winner plus some smaller prizes. I am now cashing at a rate of 33% and my ROI is 65%.

Other Comments

I want to clarify to readers how I estimate the size of ticket floats remaining for various games. I know the size of the initial float from the game sheet. I then assume that the number of top prizes claimed, as indicated on the outstanding prize chart, is a representative sample of the entire game. For example, the $2 CFL game began play with 2154 top prizes being listed on the OLG site. At present, 500 remain. That is 23.2% of those prizes. I project that sample across the entire game. Therefore, because the game began play with 3,060,00 tickets I would estimate that 710,000 remain to be sold. How accurate is that sample? There is math available to work this out. In this case, it is accurate to +/- 2%, 19 times out of twenty.

I get into trouble when the sample size gets smaller. For example, Prestige only lists 205 top prizes. The math would suggest that the estimate for that game is +/- 7% 19 times out of 20. When I estimate its remaining float at 42%, I should more accurately state a range of 35% - 49%.

I will state these numbers with that caveat for the next little while although I'm not sure that readers wish to see that. Please post a message if you have any thoughts on the subject.

It's good to be home - where's my lucky scratching loony?

Doug

Cash for Life $10 Loses a Grand Prize - Emerald 7's Takes Over Top Spot

The good and bad news with a game like the $10 Cash for Life Family is that it has a small number of large grand prizes. With a $2,025,000 Grand Prize the game was steaming along on top of my ratings. And then the bad news happened. Victor Ashun-Quainoo of Brampton took down one of the three grand prizes. Good for him – bad for the rest of us. The game has been knocked down from top status to middling status. It may be able to return to favoured status in time but for now we have to look elsewhere.

And that elsewhere is Emerald 7’s. This game has five of its seven grand prizes left to be claimed along with one of its two second prizes and only 30% of its float left to sell. The game is average within its group in terms of chances to win a prize. Its grand prize rating is not great as the grand prize is only $77,777 for your $5 ticket but it has lots of prizes between $100 and the grand prize amount. It also offers a low number of “winning” tickets that return the cost of the ticket. I like that. Your chances to win one of the grand prizes currently stand at 190,000:1 and that is the best of any game currently for sale.

$1 - $2 Game Update

The $2 Cash For Life Family game is creeping back up the ladder after surrendering an early grand prize. It is an excellent choice for an inexpensive game.

$3 Game Update

There is still more bad news than good news in this area. At present, the best rated game is Super Bingo #3013.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Emerald 7’s is the game of choice but Cash In is also a good choice. Cross-Tripler is the only poor choice in this area.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Avoid Classic Gold. You can play any of the others, including the $10 Cash for Life Family. That game has taken a hit but it’s still not a poor choice.

Comings and Goings

The OLG retired Money Multiplier and Black Pearls this past week. We were happy to see Black Pearls go as all the grand prizes had been claimed and with a $100,000 grand prize, it was the OLG’s policy to retire the game. Money Multiplier was another story. That game would be top rated if it was still in play. It had two $100,000 grand prizes left and only 13% of its float left to sell. That still amounts to 400,000 tickets somewhere in the system. I fail to understand why the OLG would not want to continue to sell the game. Or maybe I do understand all too well. 

The sobering reality of playing any of these games was reinforced by a poster who recounts that he found 12 Money Multipliers, bought them all, and managed a total return of $15 for his efforts. That would be enough to turn me off the game.  

Personal Play

Two Cash for Life $10 tickets were purchased this past week. Both were winners returning $25 in total. I know – nothing to shout about but it is my first winning week of 2014 so I’m patting myself on the back regardless.

I’ll be buying a Lotto Max ticket this week. A $50 million jackpot and twenty $1 million supplementary prizes is sufficient to drag me in based upon the wisdom of a reader comment of a few months ago. With three lines in play, and barring duplicate winners, I have 21 chances of 24 million:1 to snag one of the prizes.  As mentioned before, this is a “winners take all” sort of lottery. As an illustration, the chances of getting 4 or seven numbers on one line are a little over 70:1. The payoff for doing so is 3:1. Those kinds of odds will empty your pockets in a hurry. On the other hand, a 1.2 million to one shot to win $1 million (or maybe $50 million) for my $5 is worth the investment.

Best of luck to all.

Doug

Cash For Life Family $10 Remains the Best of Three Excellent Choices

No jackpot winners from any of the top three games means that there is no change at the top this week. Each of these games is a good choice. Play Cash for Life if the big Grand Prize is your priority (one chance in 900,000 to win $2 Million for $10), Prestige if you want the maximum smaller prize results (6 - $1 Million Grand Prizes remaining and 59.6% of the revenue returned to small prize winners)  and Money Multiplier for the best chance to win a $100,000 Grand Prize at 1 in 200,000 for $5.

Top Rated Games

1. Cash for Life $10 (75% of ticket float left to be sold)
2. Money Multiplier (13%)
3. Prestige (51%)
4. Emerald 7's (36%)
5. Cash In (37%)

Games to Avoid

1. Black Pearls (17%)
2. Cherry Triple (31%)
3. Fat Cat (51%)
4. QFG Crossword (85%)
5. Bingo Express (100%)

$1 - $2 Game Update

Cash For Life $2 is a good game and great value in the $1 - $2 game area.

$3 Game Update

Keno #1412 is the top rated game here. Avoid that monster Quest For Gold Crossword game. It is a dog at this point in time.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Avoid Black Pearls. The OLG should have retired this game by now. All the remaining choices are acceptable plays.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Avoid Classic Gold.

Comings and Goings

Two new games were added this week: $1 Bingo Express and $5 Aces and Eights. Bingo Express has absolutely nothing going for it. If you don't win a Grand Prize, the next best prize is $50. Aces and Eights is interesting in that there are 7-$100,000 Grand Prizes. The game has the potential to move up the ratings. I'm not sure that I'm totally on board with the marketing of the game. Was Aces and Eights not the hand that Jesse James was holding when he was murdered?

Personal Play

Two Cash for Life $10 tickets each returned the cost of the ticket. Two $2 Cash for Life and 1 Holly Jolly orphan that I happened upon all were losers. I continue to struggle. Maybe I'll break out in a big way!

And Finally

Thanks to the posters who keep us updated on their winnings. I find it encouraging to know that winning remains a possibility. Read the comments section to keep yourself updated.


Doug

Cash For Life Family $10 Extends Its Lead

Prestige lost one of its remaining Grand Prizes this past week while Cash For Life Family $10 did not. The result is that the Cash For Life game is extending its lead. Over 20% of the float has now been sold and all three Grand Prizes remain. I did not see that the Prestige Winner was listed on the OLG site thereby confirming the predictions of a few of the readers of this blog.

Your chances to win $3000/week for life ($2,025,000 Present Value) are presently 940,000:1. Another reason to like this game was offered by a regular contributor who points out that all of the profits for the game remain within Ontario whereas Prestige is an Inter-provincial Lottery Game which means that Ontario shares the profits with our confreres  in other regions.

Top Rated Games

1. Cash For Life $10 (estimated 79% of float left to be sold)
2. Money Multiplier (13%)
3. Prestige (54%)
4. $200 Million (51%)
5. Emeralds Seven (44%)

Games to Avoid

1. Black Pearls (17%)
2. Cherry Triple (34%)
3. Fat Cat (55%)
4. QFG Crossword (90%)
5. Mahjong (57%)

$1 - $2 Game Update

Cash For Life $2 is the choice here. Two Grand Prizes remain and there is always the chance of winning a free ticket to the $4 game.

$3 Game Update

This area has been in trouble for some time now. The best pick is Keno #1412. It will be interesting to track QFG Crossword. The game is poorly rated and it is a jumbo game with a float of over 25 million tickets. Let other players bang away on that one.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Money Multiplier towers above the other games here. Next in line is Emerald's Seven. A reader continues to play that game exclusively and I'm looking forward to hearing of his exploits.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Avoid Classic Gold. All the others are good choices.

Comings and Goings

The last of the Christmas games was retired this week when Instant Gift Pack was recalled. The OLG did well with this game selling an estimated 80% of the tickets that were sold as bundled smaller games. I was surprised by how well the game sold.

Personal Play

Three Prestige tickets and one $10 Cash For Life ticket returned exactly nothing. My numbers to begin the year are very poor. Have to soldier on.

Commentary

There was a lot of commentary this past week on the blog. I read it with interest. Some of it was with respect to the OLG Keno game. I don't know much about it but will take a look. There was also some suggestion about "rigging". To be clear, no one was suggesting that the lottery is fixed. I agree with the comment that the Lottery Organizations have no reason to do so. The odds are in their favour and always will be. A friend at work plays the Sports Lotto. When I commented that the posted odds for games are poor his response was that he understood that but he has the confidence that the OLG profits go to improving infrastructure within the province. That is a huge point that the OLG would never overlook.

That said, Trinitron comments on the seeming pattern that is inherent with Quick Picks. I have noticed the same thing but I have never worked out the odds. He claims an unusual number of tickets with consecutive numbers. That should only happen in one out of every three tickets. I also notice a certain symmetry and distribution in the Quick Pick numbers. It is not often that I see bunched numbers. The actual draw of numbers can be squeaky clean while having a randomizer program for Quick Picks that is slightly less than random. I am going to see what I can find out about that from the OLG.

Best.

Doug

Cash For Life Family $10 Gets Its Nose In Front

$10 Cash For Life Family and Prestige are in a virtual dead heat atop the ratings. Prestige is a rock solid all round game. The Cash for Life game is the best at the top end with 3 Grand Prizes, each with a Present Value of $2,025,000. This game is poor at the low end. For the player, the choice is personal: do you want the best value for Grand Prizes or the best balanced game? There is no right answer.

Top Rated Games

1. Cash For Life Family $10 (83% of float left to sell)
2. Prestige (56%)
3. Money Multiplier (14%)
4. $200 Million (52%)
5. Cash For Life Family $4 (64%)

Games to Avoid

1. Black Pearls (17%)
2. QFG Crossword (95%)
3. Mahjong (60%)
4. Cherry Triple (38%)
5. Instant Gift Pack (23%)

$1 - $2 Game Update

My pet game of $1 CFL Family took another hit this past week and is now a poor game. The $2 version of the game is the best in this category.

$3 Games

The OLG is turning things over in this area. That's good for players. Keno and Super Bingo are the best choices at present but I would recommend looking elsewhere for the time being.

$4 - $5 Games

Money Multiplier is a super choice but tickets are scarce. The $4 Cash for Life Family is a good choice. Emerald Seven's and Cash In are also reasonable choices.

$10 - $20 Games

Avoid Instant Gift Pack and Classic Gold. The other three games are superior choices.

Comings and Goings

It's moving time! The OLG retired all of the Christmas games this past week with the exception of the $10 Instant Gift Pack. Cashingo and Crossword 3203 also were recalled. Finally, the Inter-provincial folks sent Classic White to bed. That decision was overdue. The only one of those games that I lament seeing gone is Holly Jolly. I wanted to buy tickets for that game for weeks and could never locate any.

New on the scene are two $3 Games - More Lucky Lines and Bingo 3014. Bingo is a jumbo game with 9 million tickets. More Lucky Lines has 3 million. More Lucky Lines is better at the top end with 3 $75,000 prizes versus 10-$50,000 prizes for Bingo. Both games are OK and it is my hope that one or both of them become reasonable choices for players - just not yet.

Personal Play

My year is starting out poorly. One $10 Cash for Life ticket was a loser and 3 - $4 Cash for Life Family tickets returned one winner of $4.

A shout out to Ryan who, as indicated a couple of weeks ago, intended to pound away on Emerald Sevens. He reports that he has purchased $275 worth of tickets and obtained a total return of $278. I would have thought that the law of averages would have caught up to him by this time but his head is still above water. He has achieved his results by cashing on 19 of 55 tickets with the largest prize being $34. He's getting a lot of fun for his money, that's for sure.


Here's to scratching during Sochi.


Doug

Prestige Lumbers Along On Top

Eight days, 300,000 tickets sold, and no Grand Prizes won. Prestige continues its run on top although any of the top games are playable. Eleven cents out of every dollar spent on Prestige is returned to the 9 - one million dollar prizes left to claim. This is second only to the $10 Cash For Life game and Prestige is much stronger than that game in the area of smaller prizes. Personally, I'm bored with the game but I'm going to try to find at least one of them this week.

Top Rated Games

1. Prestige (56% of its tickets left to sell)
2. CFL $10 Game (87%)
3. Money Multiplier (15%)
4. CFL Family $4 Game (87%)
5. $200 Million (52%)

Even after the media blitz for the $200 Million game (which the ad described as "new"), this game continues to struggle with sales. The game has now been on sale for over nine months and over half of its float remains unsold. Message to the Interprovincial Lottery Corporation - Canadians don't like spending $20 on a scratch and win ticket!

Games to Avoid

1. Classic White (8%)
2. Cashingo (9%)
3. Crossword 3203 (6%)
4. Mahjong (67%)
5. QFG Crossword (99%)

$1 - $2 Game Update

Sadly, the $1 CFL Family game coughed up a grand prize. It remains a good game but it is no longer a great game.

$3 Game Update

Slim pickens in this area. Even though Holly Jolly revealed a Grand Prize this past week, it remains the best choice. I'd look elsewhere.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Most of these game are reasonable choices. Avoid Jack Frost.

$10 -$20 Game Update

If anyone is listening in Scratch Ticket headquarters, get rid of Classic White!!! All of the top four prize categories have been won. The most anyone can win on the game is $1000 for your $10 investment. Do it now!

Comings and Goings

The OLG introduced the jumbo Quest for Gold Crossword game this past week. A massive ticket float of over 25 million tickets means that the game will be with us for most of the year. None of the three Crossword games is a good choice. Sadly, this game does not fare well in my rating system. Less than one percent of the revenue is returned to the Grand Prize winners. That is the lowest for any game currently for sale. The chances to win a prize or any prize greater than the cost of the ticket are poor. The money returned to people who win more than $3 and less than $100 is good but not good enough to overcome its drawbacks. I know that new games are popular and if you must, you must. Let me know how it goes.

No games were retired this week.

Personal Play

Five $1 CFL Family tickets returned nothing; 1 Lotto Max ticket returned nothing, and one $10 CFL Family ticket returned $15.  The net loss of $5 is about what one would expect.

Reader Lloyd found a trove of Holly Jolly tickets and scooped up all 17 of them. His return was a disappointing $42 for his $51 investment. I hope that he got $9 of scratching fun.

I note that OLG President Rod Phillips offered his resignation this past week http://bit.ly/LK7qV7 .  
Not surprising. Ever since Godfrey left I expect that things became less comfortable for Rod. The OLG's grand modernization plan is springing leaks all over the place. The centerpiece of the plan was a massive destination casino in Toronto. Nobody wants it. The plans in Ottawa fell through. The Premier forced Mr. Phillips to add the health of the horse racing industry to his list of priorities. That was pretty tough to do when the plan he was hired to implement spelled doom for that industry. I think that what surprised Rod the most was that the subject of having a casino in your municipality brings together a wide variety of public interest groups who are all united in their opposition to the idea. The only ones in favour are the OLG and casino operators. City Councillors everywhere were able to add up lost votes and opted for the safer choice. That's democracy and that spelled a dead end for Rod. Best to head off to greener pastures before you get fingered for the failure of the plan. As a horse racing fan, I'm glad that it is turning out the way that it is.

It's the dog days of winter - may the prospect of a winning ticket keep you warm.

Doug

Prestige Languishes On Top

I have to admit that I'm bored with Prestige but it continues to be the best rated game and it's low sales figures means that it will remain there until at least one more of the 9 - $1 million dollar prizes is claimed.

You presently have one chance in 950,000 to win $1 million for a $10 investment. 10.5 cents of every dollar spent on tickets is being directed to the Grand Prize winners which is second only to the CFL $10 game. Prestige also returns half of total revenue to winners of more than $10 and less than $100 which is far superior to the CFL game. Holly Jolly remains a strong second choice but I am having trouble finding any tickets for sale for that game.


 

Top Rated Games

1. Prestige (59% of tickets left to be sold)
2. Holly Jolly (24%)
3. CFL $10 (93%)
4. Money Multiplier (16%)
5. CFL $1 (87%)

Games to Avoid

1. Classic White (8%)
2. Cashingo (9%)
3. Crossword 3203 (6%)
4. Jack Frost (9%)
5. Mahjong (7%)

$1 - $2 Game Update

The $1 CFL game is the best $1 game that I have ever seen. If you prefer inexpensive games, this is the choice. The $2 CFL game surrendered a Grand Prize last week thereby knocking down its rating.

$3 Game Update

Holly Jolly is a good choice, if you can find any tickets. With an estimated 24% of the float left, they should still be fairly common.

$4 - $5 Game Update

There are two $4 CFL games currently for sale. Each is a reasonable choice but game 1165 (the new one) is definitely better than 1161. Be aware.

$10 - $20 Game Update

A comment posted this week tipped us to the introduction of Classic Gold and the retirement of Classic White. Well, the first tip happened but the OLG, or more correctly the Inter-provincial Lottery Corporation, is taking its last chance to flog Classic White before it fades away. There are no Grand Prizes left in Classic White and, by policy, it should be withdrawn.

Comings and Goings

Fast 200's was retired this week. Too bad, it was a good game. The Grand Prize was only $200 but there were still over 700 of them left to claim. It was the top rated game in the $1 -$2 game quadrant, before the arrival of $1 CFL, and still had 20% of its float left to sell. Don't like the decision.

Classic Gold was introduced. It is an inter-provincial game.  With 9.6% of total revenue dedicated to prize winners of $100 or more, it ranks at the low end of $10 - $20 games. Your chance to win any prize or any prize greater than the cost of the ticket is also poor. CFL, Prestige, and $200 Million are all better choices than this game.

Personal Play

I jumped into the CFL pool this week. I purchased 2 - $1 tickets, 2 - $2 tickets and one each of the $4 and $10 games. I got my money back on the $10 game and won a free ticket on the $2 game. That free ticket turned out to be worth $2 yielding a total return of $12 for the $20 investment.

For this week, I am following the advice of a comment left by a reader that recommends Lotto Max. This weeks draw is for $50 million with an additional dozen $1 million prizes to be won. I'll buy one and add it to my Instant Win purchases for the week.

To close, I received my first critical comment this week to the blog. It had to happen. Give it a read.

Doug

It's 2014 and Prestige is Back on Top

My apologies for the delay in posting this first blog update for 2014. I made a last minute decision to spend a week in Florida with a friend and thus was unable to stick to my normal schedule. I'm very sorry to have missed the miserable weather of last week. I hope that all readers are optimistic with visions of lottery wins dancing around in their heads for 2014.

After watching Money Multiplier climb the rating scale until it reaching its apex just before Christmas, it quickly surrendered two of its Grand Prizes knocking it back down. It remains a playable game with two of its seven Grand Prizes left to be claimed. The problem is that there is only an estimated 18% of its float left to sell which means that you will be lucky if you are able to find any tickets.

In its place, Prestige regained its top billing. A lucky player in Peterborough claimed one of its $1 million Grand Prize this past week. If I am not mistaken, all three of the winners in this game have been located in Ontario and it is an inter-provincial game.  If you believe in random distribution then this should have no impact upon your decision making process. Personally, I am impacted by that fact although I should not be. I may be looking in other places until such time as the distribution of winners flattens out a bit.

   

Top Rated Games

1. Prestige (59%)
2. Holly Jolly (25%)
3. CFL Family 1166 (97%)
4. CFL Family 1163 (87%)
5. Money Multiplier (18%)

Games to Avoid

1. Classic White (8%)
2. Cashingo (9%)
3. Crossword 3203 (6%)
4. Jack Frost (36%)
5. Cherry Triple (45%)

More on the CFL Family games below.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Hello to a $1 and a $2 Cash For Life game. Each is rated highly. Knock yourself out with these inexpensive games.

$3 Game Update

Holly Jolly is still looking good. Two of the three Grand Prizes remain to be claimed and only 25% of the float left to sell. That yields a one in 784,000 chance to win $75,000 for a $3 investment.

$4 - $5 Game Update

The new Cash For Life game and Money Multiplier are both good choices.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Avoid Classic White and Instant Gift Pack. Any of the remaining three is a good choice.

Comings and Goings

Five games have been retired over the course of the past two weeks. Each of them was long in the tooth and needed to be sent to Instant Game Retirement Acres.

What we have received in their place is a suite of new Cash For Life games - there is a $1, $2, $4 and $10 version of each. These are always popular games and it will be interesting to track sales of the Cash For Life brand over various price points.

Someone in the marketing department at the OLG will be receiving a gold star as the games all look attractive. I have been stumped in how to evaluate the games as each of the $1, $2, and $4 games incorporate the element of a free ticket for the next game up the ladder. Very clever. The $1 game is a terrific $1 game with chances to win any prize of 1 in every 2.52 tickets. That is the best of any game currently available for sale. Your chances to win any prize more than the price of the ticket is one in every 4.13 tickets which is second only to Instant Gift Pack which is a $10 game!

I have been trying to determine how to evaluate the games at a detailed level. I believe that the OLG is counting every free ticket as a deduction from the total revenue to the game to which the free ticket applies. I have been counting the free ticket as worth the percent return of the game multiplied by the value of the ticket. This produces two different results - mine is from the perspective of the player and the OLG is from the perspective of the seller. I'm going to have to mull this over a bit more. In the meantime, go along with the hype.

Personal Play

2013 ended with a cash rate of 38% and a final return on investment of 72%. Each of the numbers was marginally above what would be expected. On a weekly basis, I averaged $35 worth of tickets per week and cashed for $25 per week. The loss of $10/week is somewhat higher than I want. As a result, I will be paring back my level of play this year to about $25/week.

I purchased two Prestige tickets and two Holly Jolly tickets this past week. Both Holly Jolly's were losers and one of the Prestige tickets was worth $20.

There are several interesting messages in the comment section of the last blog update. A word to the wise from one reader who thought that he had won $200 only to find out when he cashed the ticket that it was worth $1350! This happened to me as well when I discovered that my $5 winner was actually worth $15. Not quite the same surprise, I admit, but the same principle applies. Be on top of what you are doing if you want to ensure that you are not a victim of another's transgressions. There should never be any surprises when you pass your ticket under the scanner and you should never throw a ticket away without scanning it. It's always possible for any of us to err.

Ryan reports that he is engaged by Emerald Seven's. He will be buying these tickets exclusively over the next little while and reporting his success. I'll be sure to pass that information along.

Now that the holiday season is behind us, lets get back into full Instant Game swing. Good luck to all.

Doug