Cash For Life $2 Takes Over the Top Spot

I'm back from my vacation in Dubai where I can assure everyone there are no Scratch and Win tickets for sale. During my absence, Cash In got wiped out with all four of its remaining Grand Prizes being claimed.

The new top rated game is the $1 Cash for Life game but I really cannot recommend it due to the very limited sample size of top prizes that is recorded for the game. Many readers ask me where I get the figures I use when I speak to the number of tickets remaining. I estimate that number based upon the sample of tickets sold as represented by the reported top prizes. More information on this is included at the end of this entry. Although the $1 Cash For Life is the top rated game, the game only reports on the 15 total prizes that are recorded on the web site. With such a small sample, I can only state the numbers +/- 25%. That is way too much variation. Instead, I will recommend the second rated game, $2 Cash For Life. This game has 2 of its original 3 Grand Prizes left to claim and only 23% of its float left to sell +/- 2%. This is the first time since I began this blog that a $1 - $2 game has been top rated. It means that I can either get lots of tickets or save money this week. I wonder what I'll do?

 

Top Rated Games

1. Cash For Life $1 (13% of float left to sell)
2. Cash For Life $2 (23%)
3. Prestige (43%)
4. Cash For Life $4 (45%)
5. Cash For Life $10 (61%)

Note: The Cash For Life Family is dominating the ratings at present. If you are playing the $4 version be careful to play game #1165 and not game #1161.

Games to Avoid

1. Cash In (15%)
2. Cherry Triple (24%)
3. QFG Crossword (52%)
4. Fat Cat (35%)
5. Blazing 7s (79%)

$1 - $2 Game Update

Either Cash for Life is a good choice. Even Red Hot 50s is a good choice for those seeking a small but frequent Grand Prize.

$3 Game Update

Super Bingo continues its climb up the ratings. It is the first $3 game in some time to be rated as being playable.

$4 - $5 Game Update

The Cash For Life 1165 is a good choice as is Cross Tripler 1755. If you like the Cross Tripler game, take care to play 1755 and not 1766.

$10 - $20 Game Update

All the games here are a reasonable choice with the exception of Classic Gold.

Comings and Goings

Monopoly was retired this past week. It had one Grand Prize left and a modest rating. It will not be missed.

Tetris and a new $20 game were introduced. Tetris begins life as a mid range $3 game. Its potential will be determined by when and if its two Grand Prizes are claimed. If they remain unclaimed for some time then the game has the potential to move up the ratings.

The new $20 game is an inter-provincial game. Extraord is almost identical to $200 Million. The prizes are the same but the new game has a few more losing tickets tossed in. I find it interesting that this game has come on line. The old $20 game has been on sale for over a year and they are selling slowly. Canadians simply do not like to spend that much money on a scratch ticket. Now with two games on the market and people's propensity to choose new games over older ones, I will predict that the $200 Million game is in trouble. There are still over 7 million of these tickets left to sell and I have no idea how they will manage to sell them. It remains a better choice than the new game so if you like $20 games, feel free to help the sales for the $200 Million game.

Personal Play

A mixed bag of tickets a few weeks back contained a $25 Cash In winner plus some smaller prizes. I am now cashing at a rate of 33% and my ROI is 65%.

Other Comments

I want to clarify to readers how I estimate the size of ticket floats remaining for various games. I know the size of the initial float from the game sheet. I then assume that the number of top prizes claimed, as indicated on the outstanding prize chart, is a representative sample of the entire game. For example, the $2 CFL game began play with 2154 top prizes being listed on the OLG site. At present, 500 remain. That is 23.2% of those prizes. I project that sample across the entire game. Therefore, because the game began play with 3,060,00 tickets I would estimate that 710,000 remain to be sold. How accurate is that sample? There is math available to work this out. In this case, it is accurate to +/- 2%, 19 times out of twenty.

I get into trouble when the sample size gets smaller. For example, Prestige only lists 205 top prizes. The math would suggest that the estimate for that game is +/- 7% 19 times out of 20. When I estimate its remaining float at 42%, I should more accurately state a range of 35% - 49%.

I will state these numbers with that caveat for the next little while although I'm not sure that readers wish to see that. Please post a message if you have any thoughts on the subject.

It's good to be home - where's my lucky scratching loony?

Doug

Cash In #1762 Blasts Its Way To The Top

Cash In is the new top rated game and it is looking very good, at present. Four of the seven Grand Prizes of $100,000 remain to be claimed and an estimated 23% of the ticket float remains to be sold. That represents the largest imbalance for a game currently for sale. The odds of winning one of those four jackpots is only 150,000:1. Otherwise, the game has a decent rate of winning tickets and a reasonable range of prizes $100 or larger. The only thing about the game I don't like is the relatively high number of prizes for the cost of the ticket.

Our old favourites, Prestige and $200 Million, are languishing. I'd like to be at the meetings where the lottery gurus discuss what to do with these games. Each of them has likely sold only half of their floats and sales remain low. $200 Million will have been on sale for a year in a couple of weeks.

 

Top Rated Games

1. Cash In (estimated 23% of float left to sell)
2. CFL Family $2  (30%)
3. Prestige (49%)
4. Emerald 7's (19%)
5. CFL Family $1 (25%)

Games to Avoid

1. Cherry Triple (25%)
2. Fat Cat (43%)
3. More Lucky Lines (56%)
4. QFG Crossword (68%)
5. Bingo Express (88%)

Note: I reported last week that Cherry Triple had been retired. Well, it looks like the webmaster at OLG made a boo boo that was subsequently repaired. Its back on the list - and it sucks!

$1 - $2 Game Update

These are halcyon days for these games. Two of them in the top five rated games is rare. Even the new Red Hot 50's looks good.

$3 Game Update

The slow repairs on these games continues. There are no games devoid of a Grand Prize. Super Bingo #3013 is almost looking good.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Cash In and Emerald 7's stand above the other games. There is really nothing bad in this area.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Classic Gold lost another Grand Prize this week. Although the other three games are all good, they should be given the cost of the ticket. We need people to buy some more losers in these games before we jump back in.

Comings and Goings

The new $1 Red Hot 50's is another one of those games that tricks my evaluation algorythm. Its Grand Prize is only $50 but there are over 10,000 of them! The cash rate for the game is poor but if it's $50 you're after - this is your game. A new 20X Lucky also came on stream. It has a good distribution of prizes and begins life with a good rating. This one has potential. Lastly, a new Cross Tripler game has appeared. There is no detail sheet posted on the OLG site so I am unable to comment on it.

Personal Play

I spread my play around this week, including a Lotto Max, and had another poor week. I am currently sitting at a cash rate of 28% and a return on investment of 56%.

Closing Comments

Jay reports that his concentration on Emerald 7's is still going well. He has begun to mix in some Cash In tickets as well. Vic has posted some interesting comments on Lotto Poker. I refer you to the comments section on the previous post for more detail.

I close with an interesting fact: the OLG currently oversees 10,205 slot machines in the province. Each one of those devils earns, on average, $440 per day for the OLG. That is 365 days per year. And the OLG refuses to divulge the pay off rates on their machines.

I'm off for vacation to Dubai. I can assure you that there is no gambling allowed there but I will try to update the blog from that location unless the OLG site is blocked by their censors!

Happy St. Patrick's day to all, especially the Emerald 7s players.

Doug

Prestige Gets Its Nose In Front Again

Emerald 7's no sooner took over top spot than it lost a Grand Prize. It remains a good choice but our old friend Prestige has taken the opportunity to retake the top spot in the ratings. Both Prestige and $200 Million continue to lag in sales. $200 Million was the benefactor of an advertising campaign two months ago but its sales continue to inch along. It is now in its 11th month of sale and almost half of its float remains to be sold. The same is true for Prestige. Still, the Grand Prizes are there to be claimed for all who are so inclined.

Approximately 8 million tickets were sold last week on all games and a further 86 million remain available for sale.

Top Rated Games 

1. Prestige (49% of float left to sell)
2. Cash In (27%)
3. CFL Family $2 Game (36%)
4. Emerald 7's (25%)
5. CFL Family $1 Game (27%)

Games to Avoid

1. Fat Cat (46%)
2. More Lucky Lines (64%)
3. Bingo Express (94%)
4. QFG Crossword (75%)
5. Mahjong (45%)

$1 - $2 Game Update

Both the $1 and $2 Cash for Life games are highly rated. Don't look beyond those choices.

$3 Game Update

Super Bingo 3013 is showing signs of moving into a territory where one can play the game. The jumbo Quest For Gold Crossword is a poor choice but its tickets are ubiquitous.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Either Cash For Life game is an acceptable choice but Cash In and Emerald 7's are head and shoulders better choices.

$10 - $20 Game Update

No change here. Anything but Classic Gold is a good choice. Even Classic Gold is not that bad but the other three provide more bang for your buck.

Comings and Goings

The poorly rated Cherry Tripler was retired this past week. It had one Grand Prize left to be claimed. There will be no tears for that game.

A new $3 Scrabble Game and $2 Blazing 7's game was introduced this past week. The Blazing 7's game is OK but I'm not thrilled by its modest Grand Prize of $17,777. Of course, there are six of them to be won. The Scrabble game has a good prize distribution and begins its life rated in the middle of the pack of the $3 games. I enjoy playing Scrabble games which means I'll be bound to try some regardless of the rating system.

Personal Play

Five Emerald 7's tickets contained one winner of $14. My Lotto Max ticket was a predictable loser. This week I'll be spreading out over a few games as all of the top five games are very good choices.

Closing Comments

Thanks for all the comments on the blog. There are some very entertaining stories there and I encourage readers to take a peek.

One poster asked how I know how many tickets are left to be sold for each game. I have written about this before and it is the most common question that I receive. I have explained what I do in the response to the question. To be clear - I am not privy to any more information than anyone else. I use what the OLG provides publicly to estimate the remaining float numbers. I am confident that the estimates will be very close to being correct in almost all cases. I am going to pull out an old statistics text book to see how I can establish mathematically the soundness of the method. That should put some readers to sleep.

Best to all.

Doug

Cash For Life Family $10 Extends Its Lead

Prestige lost one of its remaining Grand Prizes this past week while Cash For Life Family $10 did not. The result is that the Cash For Life game is extending its lead. Over 20% of the float has now been sold and all three Grand Prizes remain. I did not see that the Prestige Winner was listed on the OLG site thereby confirming the predictions of a few of the readers of this blog.

Your chances to win $3000/week for life ($2,025,000 Present Value) are presently 940,000:1. Another reason to like this game was offered by a regular contributor who points out that all of the profits for the game remain within Ontario whereas Prestige is an Inter-provincial Lottery Game which means that Ontario shares the profits with our confreres  in other regions.

Top Rated Games

1. Cash For Life $10 (estimated 79% of float left to be sold)
2. Money Multiplier (13%)
3. Prestige (54%)
4. $200 Million (51%)
5. Emeralds Seven (44%)

Games to Avoid

1. Black Pearls (17%)
2. Cherry Triple (34%)
3. Fat Cat (55%)
4. QFG Crossword (90%)
5. Mahjong (57%)

$1 - $2 Game Update

Cash For Life $2 is the choice here. Two Grand Prizes remain and there is always the chance of winning a free ticket to the $4 game.

$3 Game Update

This area has been in trouble for some time now. The best pick is Keno #1412. It will be interesting to track QFG Crossword. The game is poorly rated and it is a jumbo game with a float of over 25 million tickets. Let other players bang away on that one.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Money Multiplier towers above the other games here. Next in line is Emerald's Seven. A reader continues to play that game exclusively and I'm looking forward to hearing of his exploits.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Avoid Classic Gold. All the others are good choices.

Comings and Goings

The last of the Christmas games was retired this week when Instant Gift Pack was recalled. The OLG did well with this game selling an estimated 80% of the tickets that were sold as bundled smaller games. I was surprised by how well the game sold.

Personal Play

Three Prestige tickets and one $10 Cash For Life ticket returned exactly nothing. My numbers to begin the year are very poor. Have to soldier on.

Commentary

There was a lot of commentary this past week on the blog. I read it with interest. Some of it was with respect to the OLG Keno game. I don't know much about it but will take a look. There was also some suggestion about "rigging". To be clear, no one was suggesting that the lottery is fixed. I agree with the comment that the Lottery Organizations have no reason to do so. The odds are in their favour and always will be. A friend at work plays the Sports Lotto. When I commented that the posted odds for games are poor his response was that he understood that but he has the confidence that the OLG profits go to improving infrastructure within the province. That is a huge point that the OLG would never overlook.

That said, Trinitron comments on the seeming pattern that is inherent with Quick Picks. I have noticed the same thing but I have never worked out the odds. He claims an unusual number of tickets with consecutive numbers. That should only happen in one out of every three tickets. I also notice a certain symmetry and distribution in the Quick Pick numbers. It is not often that I see bunched numbers. The actual draw of numbers can be squeaky clean while having a randomizer program for Quick Picks that is slightly less than random. I am going to see what I can find out about that from the OLG.

Best.

Doug

Prestige Stands Firm

During a short week Prestige surrendered none of its top prizes. It remains the recommended play. For those looking for a cheaper alternative, the third rated game, Money Multiplier, is a good choice. Its odds of 310,000:1 to win the Grand Prize are the best of any game. Another feature I like about this game is that only 9.6% of projected revenue is returned to players who win the cost of the ticket. That is the second best such number currently available.

I was encouraged by the new Cash For Life 1161 but no sooner had I posted my last blog than a reader posted a comment that one of the Grand Prizes had already been claimed. That event has negatively impacted the game based on the fact that your odds of winning one of the two remaining Grand Prizes are now 4 million to 1.

I have a bone to pick with the OLG on these Cash For Life games. Their policy is to retire games with no grand prizes left to claim if the Grand Prize for the game is $100,000 or higher. The Present Value of $1000/wk for life is $750,000. Double that for the Double Cash for Life. By that measure, Cash for Life 1162 should be retired. Let's see if they do so promptly or not. The temptation to let the game remain in play is large considering that 30% of the ticket float remains to be sold (3 million tickets).

Top Rated Games

1. Prestige (68%)
2. Fast 200s (30%)
3. Money Multiplier (40%)
4. $200 Million (60%)
5. Classic White (11%)

Games to Avoid

1. Cash For Life 1162 (30%)
2. Keno 1410 (18%)
3. Crossword 3203 (14%)
4. Horse Shoes (13%)
5. Bingo (15%)

Note - Percentages are estimated remaining percentage of tickets left to be sold.

$1 - $2 Game Update

After Fast 200s and its small but plentiful Grand Prizes, Wild 8s is the best choice.

$3 Game Update

This is a battleground. These are the highest volume games yet four of them are presently devoid of Grand Prizes. Be careful. Cashingo and Frogger are the best two choices.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Money Multiplier is the best choice, followed by Jack Frost.

$10 - $20 Game Update

If you afford this level of play, stick to Prestige.

Comings and Goings

After all the activity of last week, there is not much to report this week. The OLG mercifully retired 20X Lucky. The game had surrendered all of its Grand Prizes and had an estimated 15% of its float left to sell.

Personal Play

Three Prestige tickets included 2 winners totaling $40. Jay in Scarborough blew his weekly budget on one Prestige ticket and managed to double his money.

There are some interesting comments from readers to last week's entry. One poster is not a fan of Prestige - too many little wins. Fair comment. These things are always a question of preference. Another poster mentioned a hospital lottery. I have never purchased a $100 lottery ticket before but I know lots of people who have won non cash prizes and swear by this type of play. Any feedback from readers on that question would be appreciated.

The Argos face the TiCats in the Eastern Final for the first time since 1986 on Sunday! That's pretty shocking when you realize that there are only four teams in the conference. Of course the Roughriders/Renegades were also competing for periods of time over the course of those 27 years.

Doug