My apologies for the delay in posting this first blog update for 2014. I made a last minute decision to spend a week in Florida with a friend and thus was unable to stick to my normal schedule. I'm very sorry to have missed the miserable weather of last week. I hope that all readers are optimistic with visions of lottery wins dancing around in their heads for 2014.
After watching Money Multiplier climb the rating scale until it reaching its apex just before Christmas, it quickly surrendered two of its Grand Prizes knocking it back down. It remains a playable game with two of its seven Grand Prizes left to be claimed. The problem is that there is only an estimated 18% of its float left to sell which means that you will be lucky if you are able to find any tickets.
In its place, Prestige regained its top billing. A lucky player in Peterborough claimed one of its $1 million Grand Prize this past week. If I am not mistaken, all three of the winners in this game have been located in Ontario and it is an inter-provincial game. If you believe in random distribution then this should have no impact upon your decision making process. Personally, I am impacted by that fact although I should not be. I may be looking in other places until such time as the distribution of winners flattens out a bit.
More on the CFL Family games below.
What we have received in their place is a suite of new Cash For Life games - there is a $1, $2, $4 and $10 version of each. These are always popular games and it will be interesting to track sales of the Cash For Life brand over various price points.
Someone in the marketing department at the OLG will be receiving a gold star as the games all look attractive. I have been stumped in how to evaluate the games as each of the $1, $2, and $4 games incorporate the element of a free ticket for the next game up the ladder. Very clever. The $1 game is a terrific $1 game with chances to win any prize of 1 in every 2.52 tickets. That is the best of any game currently available for sale. Your chances to win any prize more than the price of the ticket is one in every 4.13 tickets which is second only to Instant Gift Pack which is a $10 game!
I have been trying to determine how to evaluate the games at a detailed level. I believe that the OLG is counting every free ticket as a deduction from the total revenue to the game to which the free ticket applies. I have been counting the free ticket as worth the percent return of the game multiplied by the value of the ticket. This produces two different results - mine is from the perspective of the player and the OLG is from the perspective of the seller. I'm going to have to mull this over a bit more. In the meantime, go along with the hype.
I purchased two Prestige tickets and two Holly Jolly tickets this past week. Both Holly Jolly's were losers and one of the Prestige tickets was worth $20.
There are several interesting messages in the comment section of the last blog update. A word to the wise from one reader who thought that he had won $200 only to find out when he cashed the ticket that it was worth $1350! This happened to me as well when I discovered that my $5 winner was actually worth $15. Not quite the same surprise, I admit, but the same principle applies. Be on top of what you are doing if you want to ensure that you are not a victim of another's transgressions. There should never be any surprises when you pass your ticket under the scanner and you should never throw a ticket away without scanning it. It's always possible for any of us to err.
Ryan reports that he is engaged by Emerald Seven's. He will be buying these tickets exclusively over the next little while and reporting his success. I'll be sure to pass that information along.
Now that the holiday season is behind us, lets get back into full Instant Game swing. Good luck to all.
Doug
After watching Money Multiplier climb the rating scale until it reaching its apex just before Christmas, it quickly surrendered two of its Grand Prizes knocking it back down. It remains a playable game with two of its seven Grand Prizes left to be claimed. The problem is that there is only an estimated 18% of its float left to sell which means that you will be lucky if you are able to find any tickets.
In its place, Prestige regained its top billing. A lucky player in Peterborough claimed one of its $1 million Grand Prize this past week. If I am not mistaken, all three of the winners in this game have been located in Ontario and it is an inter-provincial game. If you believe in random distribution then this should have no impact upon your decision making process. Personally, I am impacted by that fact although I should not be. I may be looking in other places until such time as the distribution of winners flattens out a bit.
Top Rated Games
- Prestige (59%)
- Holly Jolly (25%)
- CFL Family 1166 (97%)
- CFL Family 1163 (87%)
- Money Multiplier (18%)
Games to Avoid
- Classic White (8%)
- Cashingo (9%)
- Crossword 3203 (6%)
- Jack Frost (36%)
- Cherry Triple (45%)
More on the CFL Family games below.
$1 - $2 Game Update
Hello to a $1 and a $2 Cash For Life game. Each is rated highly. Knock yourself out with these inexpensive games.$3 Game Update
Holly Jolly is still looking good. Two of the three Grand Prizes remain to be claimed and only 25% of the float left to sell. That yields a one in 784,000 chance to win $75,000 for a $3 investment.$4 - $5 Game Update
The new Cash For Life game and Money Multiplier are both good choices.$10 - $20 Game Update
Avoid Classic White and Instant Gift Pack. Any of the remaining three is a good choice.Comings and Goings
Five games have been retired over the course of the past two weeks. Each of them was long in the tooth and needed to be sent to Instant Game Retirement Acres.What we have received in their place is a suite of new Cash For Life games - there is a $1, $2, $4 and $10 version of each. These are always popular games and it will be interesting to track sales of the Cash For Life brand over various price points.
Someone in the marketing department at the OLG will be receiving a gold star as the games all look attractive. I have been stumped in how to evaluate the games as each of the $1, $2, and $4 games incorporate the element of a free ticket for the next game up the ladder. Very clever. The $1 game is a terrific $1 game with chances to win any prize of 1 in every 2.52 tickets. That is the best of any game currently available for sale. Your chances to win any prize more than the price of the ticket is one in every 4.13 tickets which is second only to Instant Gift Pack which is a $10 game!
I have been trying to determine how to evaluate the games at a detailed level. I believe that the OLG is counting every free ticket as a deduction from the total revenue to the game to which the free ticket applies. I have been counting the free ticket as worth the percent return of the game multiplied by the value of the ticket. This produces two different results - mine is from the perspective of the player and the OLG is from the perspective of the seller. I'm going to have to mull this over a bit more. In the meantime, go along with the hype.
Personal Play
2013 ended with a cash rate of 38% and a final return on investment of 72%. Each of the numbers was marginally above what would be expected. On a weekly basis, I averaged $35 worth of tickets per week and cashed for $25 per week. The loss of $10/week is somewhat higher than I want. As a result, I will be paring back my level of play this year to about $25/week.I purchased two Prestige tickets and two Holly Jolly tickets this past week. Both Holly Jolly's were losers and one of the Prestige tickets was worth $20.
There are several interesting messages in the comment section of the last blog update. A word to the wise from one reader who thought that he had won $200 only to find out when he cashed the ticket that it was worth $1350! This happened to me as well when I discovered that my $5 winner was actually worth $15. Not quite the same surprise, I admit, but the same principle applies. Be on top of what you are doing if you want to ensure that you are not a victim of another's transgressions. There should never be any surprises when you pass your ticket under the scanner and you should never throw a ticket away without scanning it. It's always possible for any of us to err.
Ryan reports that he is engaged by Emerald Seven's. He will be buying these tickets exclusively over the next little while and reporting his success. I'll be sure to pass that information along.
Now that the holiday season is behind us, lets get back into full Instant Game swing. Good luck to all.
Doug
Speaking of eyeballing your tickets! I scratched an Emerald 7s ticket and thought I had a loser. My wife checked it and found 2 horseshoes which I had forgotten about. So I actually won 2X7 and 2X3 for a win of $20. Always scanning your tickets is a good idea.
ReplyDeleteAfter my success with Cash In I bought 4 Money Multipler and won nothing which is how $5 games usually go for me. Still lots of them around me but I just can't pull the trigger.
ReplyDeleteI'm a big fan of CFL even though I end up losing big. It's set up as an all or nothing type game but that $10 version is so tempting. My first two tickets were duds but the next two had $10 & $30 so I'm temporarily even for now. Lots of good choices but I think I'll be sticking to CFL until there's a winner.
Yes all Prestige million dollar prizes have been won in Ontario (Peterborough, Welland and Burlington) as much as they try to make the distribution random its an inter-provincial game like you said so I would be surprised if there are more than 2 more million dollar winners from Ontario I don't think the west and Quebec will just sit back and allow that but I maybe wrong.
ReplyDeleteWord on the street is that classic gold is going to replace classic white very soon and it is also going to be inter-provincial. Its essentially going to be the same game but this time gold instead of white, it sold pretty well compared to prestige and $200 million supreme.
For now I am going with the $10 cfl because its an Ontario only game and the ticket float is a lot less than prestige and $200 million supreme. If you win the $10 one and take the lump sum you will walk away with close to $2 million this is based on the fact that they give $650,000 for 1,000 a week for life and $1.3 million for 2,000 a week for life
Trinitron00,
Delete"Word on the street?" I like it and am intrigued.
I called the OLG to inquire about the present cash value of the new CFL games. They provided the following numbers: $67,500, $135,000, $675.000, $2,025,000. The old CFLs yielded $750,000. I don't have a problem with that. The winner has the choice based upon their particular situation. The OLG has no idea of the age of any winner which makes it difficult to make any argument about the cash value they are offering.
The western lottery corporation always post upcoming scratch lottery games unlike olg that keeps it like a trade secret, they had classic gold as upcoming for several weeks now so that is the "word on the street".
ReplyDeleteAnyway olg now has it posted on their website as well and in unclaimed prizes so it should hit retailers very soon if not already and classic white should be on its way out now finally. Doing some lotto max group plays this week since its at $50 million + 12 max millions so I would be doing very little if any scratch ticket buys this week
whats anyones advice on daily keno, and whats the best pick (2-10) and bet to play. I'm trying to experiment whats good, i heard 10 pick 10 dollar bet is nearly impossible to win. i played it today and was 2 numbers off of $250 and 3 off of 2000. i had 5/10 . but the lady at the counter advised me not to play 10 pick 10 dollar bets. any suggestions? thanks
ReplyDeleteYou can take a look at the odds here: http://www.olg.ca/lotteries/games/daily_keno_prize_details.jsp
DeleteThe bet size only changes the payout so you can buy $1 pick 10 instead for 250k win. But certainly the hitting 10/10 pick is huge odds.
The ones I would choose would be a $10 2 or any $ 3 pick and maybe $1-2 on the 7 pick as a long shot. Other than that it doesn't seem very attractive to me.
Is $200 million supreme still a good choice to take my chances at?
ReplyDeletemost I've won off 200 million so far was 100 bux. its an ok game to play, just 20 bux. is a lot for 1 scratch card. And jay, thanks
ReplyDeleteAnonymous,
ReplyDeleteAs of today, $200 remains a good choice. Six of the 12 Grand Prizes of $2 million remain outstanding. There are a good number of smaller prizes with the best chance to cash any prize being the best in the group. Of course, it should be a good game with a price point of $20, as Vic points out.
I might also point out Trinitron's post from earlier in the week. Lotta Max is a reasonable stab in the dark tonight. Don't be afraid to invest $5 in that game today.
Good luck.
Doug
You all are losers... how much money do you guys waste on this rigged lottery.. like the woman in the news winning 50 million WITHOUT the ticket in hand... how can they "investigate" on thier own to give away 50 million to someone without a signed ticket with person info? They obviously hired that woman by probably paying her few hundred grand to tell people on national television how trustworthy and honest this lottery is. Pathetic game, waste of money, and you all should invest your money instead by earning it.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous,
ReplyDeleteI have always maintained that the best "investment" advice for people is not to play. Any endeavour where the house takes a profit of 30-40% is not something to attack with verve. I also report on my personal play and you can clearly see how I am doing. It reinforces what you have said.
The purpose of the blog is to provide advice to people who are choosing to play as to what the best choices are at any given time. There are times when the wagering proposition justifies the investment. Still, one has to play responsibly as the most likely outcome is a loss.
As for the woman who won the $50 million, you could not be more wrong. I have my share of criticism of the OLG but they did not have to have a winner of the draw. There are policies in place for all unclaimed prizes. If you read the story you'll be impressed about how they determined the rightful winner. It's an interesting story and they don't reveal all of their methods as the same techniques are used to confirm the authenticity of others who claim large prizes. Your unjustified cynicism on this score does not invalidate your main point but I would encourage you to look into this one a bit further before posting a crazy conspiracy theory.
I hope you keep coming back to the blog. Your comments are welcome.
Doug
he just might be mad because all he does is play pick 2 and loses every time lol
ReplyDeleteAnonymous, 1 question for you. whats so rigged about a person getting a lucky scratch off that wins him/her 10,000+. nothing, its complete luck, its not like olg pulls those winning tickets off the boards at those stores. lol ,but i can kind of say that the lotto is kind of rigged to a certain extent, how the machine generates a combo of numbers for the least payout.
ReplyDeleteI am an undergrad in Applied Statistics. I dont play any type of OLG game but I do understand personal finance. If you need money earn it, get an education and invest. Learn about the stock market, mutual funds and that's how the rich become rich. They become rich by protecting money. When you buy a lotto max ticket your odds (if not rigged) are 1 in 85 Million...its basically like you are throwing $5 in the garbage can. I get really annoyed people wasting my time when I am the gas station, people in line are buying $100 or $150 worth of lotto max tickets.. like come on you buying $150 worth of lotto max tickets wont win you the jackpot mathematically your odds are still the same..as for scratch offs, you can easily blow hundreds of dollars with a return of nothing really because no matter what you do, the tickets are distributed at random and most of them yield $5 or $20 wins...so why bother? Lets face it, if you can live 10,000 years on this planet Earth, you still wont come close to winning the big jackpot. Just keep dreaming or get an education and make decent average Canadian household income $75,000 per year.
ReplyDeleteAnyways good luck to you all who do play...but play responsible and enjoy the entertainment blues.
Anon. I have baughten plenty of 20 dollar scratches and 8/10 times i make 40 dollars back sometimes 50. So your assumptions about just blowing hundreds without any return is wrong. Your almost guarunteed half of what you paid for if a person buys them in bulk. If your lucky more than what you walked in with. There are reasons not to play, but there are also reasons to play
ReplyDeleteMy fam has millions so i dont mind playin the lotto, then what
ReplyDelete