With it being so long after de-activation date, it is unlikely that any given retailer will have any of the top rated game left to sell. Unopened packages have been returned and stragglers are likely to be already sold. This is reflected in the sales of the game that have ground to a halt. So, it looks like those two outstanding Grand Prizes of $10,000 each will be credited to the OLG. Time to move on.
If you can find any - they're worth the buck.
No new games were added although I was expecting the new Cash For Life to be there. I guess the OLG wants everyone to use their $2 off coupon from the Gift Pack on the old version.
Total tickets available now total 95 million - just a bit above normal.
CL66 posted a comment this week concerning my evaluation method. For those who are interested, my formula takes into account the percentage of the revenue for a game that is dedicated to prizes of less than $100. The second factor is the ratio of Top Prizes left to be claimed and the Money associated with those prizes. I adjust those numbers based upon the current O/S prize list in an attempt to equalize the factors.
I am generally happy with the formula although it sometimes produces results that makes me raise my eyebrow.
CL66 uses a more linear method whereby he creates a dozen measurement points and rates every game from best to last based upon the particular point. He then sums up the ratings to achieve his overall rating.
Both systems have their flaws and each is available for your use as a visitor to the blog. The best approach may be to ignore both of the methods and go with your gut.
There were some comments last week about Pro-Line. I'd love to read comments from any visitor(s) who play it. In my opinion, the posted odds are terrible. Playing a $1 Scratch Ticket is a 20% better choice. Still, I have been known to dabble on some NFL games but for anyone who wants to risk more than a couple of bucks, there are legal off shore sites that provide single game wagering and better odds. An example is www.betfair.com . This is a publicly traded legal company in England. It's not legal for Canadians to use the site but there is only one reason for that - the OLG wishes to enforce its monopoly on the environment and you are their imprisoned customer. Hooey to that.
Doug
If you can find any - they're worth the buck.
Top Rated Games
- $1 Bingo Express #1823 - Dead man walking
- $5 Wild Card #1854 - Heir apparent. 4 of 7 Grand Prizes remain.
- $5 Tripling 7's #1858 - Very good low prize availability and a positive ratio
- $3 Super Bingo #3018 - Best small prize availability of any game
- $3 Keno #1416 - another game with very good small prize availability
Games to Avoid
- $1 5X The Money #1838 - The counter weight to Bingo Express
- $3 Sweet Cash #1852 - Largest prize left is $1000
- $3 More Lucky Lines #1829 - Top Prize ratio is .49.
- $2 Polar Bear #1862 - Who said that they didn't have the heart to scratch them. Too late!
- $2 10X The Money #1839 - Nothing to recommend
Rating of Games with 1000's of Grand Prizes
- Fast 200's
- 500 Frenzy
- Red Hot 50's
Best Games If All You Want Is A Grand Prize
- $10 Spectacular
- $5 Wild Card
- $10 Diamond
- $20 Extreme
- $4 Cash For Life
Games Devoid Of Grand Prizes
- More Lucky Lines
- Sweet Cash
- 5X The Money
Comings and Goings
$10 Cash Blast and $3 Crossword #3209 dropped off of the radar this week. The latter was one of the top rated games but at 6% of the float left and a new game already selling, it was time.No new games were added although I was expecting the new Cash For Life to be there. I guess the OLG wants everyone to use their $2 off coupon from the Gift Pack on the old version.
Total tickets available now total 95 million - just a bit above normal.
Personal Play
Nothing to ReportPost Script
CL66 posted a comment this week concerning my evaluation method. For those who are interested, my formula takes into account the percentage of the revenue for a game that is dedicated to prizes of less than $100. The second factor is the ratio of Top Prizes left to be claimed and the Money associated with those prizes. I adjust those numbers based upon the current O/S prize list in an attempt to equalize the factors.
I am generally happy with the formula although it sometimes produces results that makes me raise my eyebrow.
CL66 uses a more linear method whereby he creates a dozen measurement points and rates every game from best to last based upon the particular point. He then sums up the ratings to achieve his overall rating.
Both systems have their flaws and each is available for your use as a visitor to the blog. The best approach may be to ignore both of the methods and go with your gut.
There were some comments last week about Pro-Line. I'd love to read comments from any visitor(s) who play it. In my opinion, the posted odds are terrible. Playing a $1 Scratch Ticket is a 20% better choice. Still, I have been known to dabble on some NFL games but for anyone who wants to risk more than a couple of bucks, there are legal off shore sites that provide single game wagering and better odds. An example is www.betfair.com . This is a publicly traded legal company in England. It's not legal for Canadians to use the site but there is only one reason for that - the OLG wishes to enforce its monopoly on the environment and you are their imprisoned customer. Hooey to that.
Finally, thanks to Sharron who posted an actual $100,000 winning scratch ticket this past week. https://www.dropbox.com/s/
Doug
I've played a bit on Draftkings. It's fantasy sports vs straight game betting so takes even more skill and knowledge to win. Case in point I regularly finished in the bottom 10%. Yeah, I didn't do much research! You can use PayPal for deposits and Canada is allowed.
ReplyDeleteI've been playing on sports interaction for over a year now and the odds and variety of wagers you can play make it so much better than OLG proline and pointspread that I can't see why a serious sports bettor would use OLG. .But when you look at the prizes over $1k page it's obvious that there is some players throwing some serious money in there.
DeleteOne exception is the pools that Olg offers, there is potential for some big payoffs for players who box a bunch of games and hit everything on a day that underdogs win...especially on nfl pools.
Current Top Rated Games:
ReplyDelete1 - $5 WILD CARD 70/100
2 - $5 ACES & 8's 69/100
3 - $5 MERRY MONEY MULITPLIER 68/100
4 - $5 TRIPLING RED 7'S 66/100
5 - $10 INSTANT GIFT PACK 64/100
6 - $5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (green) 63/100
7 - $5 BINGO DOUBLER 62/100
8 - $10 CLASSIC WHITE 2 61/100
9 - $5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (purple) 57/100
10 - $10 HOLIDAY SPECTACULAR 56/100
11 - $3 CROSSWORD 54/100
12 - $3 KENO (purple) 53/100
13 - $3 KENO (red) 51/100
14 - $10 DIAMOND PAYOUT 50/100
15 - $3 FROSTY TRIPLER 49/100
16 - $3 BINGO (purple) 48/100
17 - $4 CASH FOR LIFE 47/100
18 - $20 EXTREME MILLIONS 46/100
19 - $2 GOLDEN 7s 45/100
19- $1 BINGO EXPRESS 45/100
21 - $3 BINGO 44/100
21 - $3 SUPER BINGO 44/100
23 - $3 SWEET CASH 43/100
23 - $2 10X THE MONEY 43/100
25 - $1 5X THE MONEY 42/100
25 - $1 10,000$ SPIN 42/100
27 - $5 500$ FRENZY 41/100
28 - $3 CASHINGO 39/100
29 - $3 MORE LUCKY LINES 37/100
30 - $2 POLAR BEAR BUCKS 35/100
31 - $1 LUCKY LINES EXPRESS 34/100
32 - $4 CASH FOR LIFE (new) 32/100
33 - $2 FAST $200s 20/100
34 - $1 RED HOT $50s 17/100
Current Top Rated Games (by ticket price):
$20 EXTREME MILLIONS 46/100
$10 INSTANT GIFT PACK 64/100
$10 CLASSIC WHITE 2 61/100
$10 HOLIDAY SPECTACULAR 56/100
$10 DIAMOND PAYOUT 50/100
$5 WILD CARD 70/100
$5 ACES & 8's 69/100
$5 MERRY MONEY MULITPLIER 68/100
$5 TRIPLING RED 7'S 66/100
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (green) 63/100
$5 BINGO DOUBLER 62/100
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (purple) 57/100
$5 500$ FRENZY 41/100
$4 CASH FOR LIFE 47/100
$4 CASH FOR LIFE (new) 32/100
$3 CROSSWORD 54/100
$3 KENO (purple) 53/100
$3 KENO (red) 51/100
$3 FROSTY TRIPLER 49/100
$3 BINGO (purple) 48/100
$3 BINGO 44/100
$3 SUPER BINGO 44/100
$3 SWEET CASH 43/100
$3 CASHINGO 39/100
$3 MORE LUCKY LINES 37/100
$2 GOLDEN 7s 45/100
$2 10X THE MONEY 43/100
$2 POLAR BEAR BUCKS 35/100
$2 FAST $200s 20/100
$1 BINGO EXPRESS 45/100
$1 5X THE MONEY 42/100
$1 10,000$ SPIN 42/100
$1 LUCKY LINES EXPRESS 34/100
$1 RED HOT $50s 17/100
Number Crunch: Compact
ReplyDelete$50K+/$5K+/$1K+/$250+/$100+/8-10x+/6-8x+/5x+/4x+/3x+/2x+/Any Prize=Overall rating
$5 WILD CARD: 2 2 3 5 6 21 28 21 9 15 3 26 = 70/100
$5 ACES & 8's: 6 6 12 13 12 23 21 5 4 5 7 31 = 69/100
$5 MERRY MONEY MULITPLIER: 7 4 5 4 7 17 27 20 10 13 5 20 = 68/100
$5 TRIPLING RED 7'S: 5 12 15 16 10 4 5 15 8 14 25 25 = 66/100
$10 INSTANT GIFT PACK: 3 1 1 3 1 9 22 25 28 31 11 2 = 64/100
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (green): 10 16 22 7 14 26 5 23 2 1 13 18 = 63/100
$5 BINGO DOUBLER: 9 11 21 2 5 14 24 17 15 20 4 14 = 62/100
$10 CLASSIC WHITE 2: 12 22 2 10 2 20 16 3 6 21 29 8 = 61/100
$5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER (purple): 13 27 29 9 14 26 5 23 2 1 13 18 = 57/100
$10 HOLIDAY SPECTACULAR: 1 3 11 20 4 28 23 11 16 23 26 7 = 56/100
$3 CROSSWORD: 22 15 26 30 13 6 15 1 1 10 34 23 = 54/100
$3 KENO (purple): 16 14 16 24 23 7 12 7 12 11 32 10 = 53/100
$3 KENO (red): 14 21 18 25 23 7 12 7 12 11 32 10 = 51/100
$10 DIAMOND PAYOUT: 8 5 10 19 22 33 33 6 20 28 2 6 = 50/100
$3 FROSTY TRIPLER: 18 18 8 14 18 18 19 27 29 6 17 15 = 49/100
$3 BINGO (purple): 15 9 19 26 17 15 25 12 17 17 21 12 = 48/100
$4 CASH FOR LIFE: 20 28 6 15 25 30 32 2 5 7 28 30 = 47/100
$20 EXTREME MILLIONS: 4 8 4 8 9 34 34 34 34 34 1 1 = 46/100
$2 GOLDEN 7s: 34 20 13 18 29 11 14 26 14 8 23 32 = 45/100
$1 BINGO EXPRESS: 34 7 14 22 32 1 2 19 26 33 12 21 = 45/100
$3 BINGO: 21 13 23 28 16 15 25 12 17 17 21 12 = 44/100
$3 SUPER BINGO: 17 10 20 27 20 24 29 28 24 3 9 4 = 44/100
$3 SWEET CASH: 34 34 9 17 11 25 18 33 21 4 6 9 = 43/100
$2 10X THE MONEY: 34 25 17 11 21 12 20 16 19 26 16 16 = 43/100
$1 5X THE MONEY: 34 34 34 23 31 5 9 9 7 22 10 29 = 42/100
$1 10,000$ SPIN: 34 19 28 31 27 10 8 14 23 16 8 21 = 42/100
$5 500$ FRENZY: 34 34 34 1 3 3 4 22 27 29 31 34 = 41/100
$3 CASHINGO: 11 17 27 6 26 22 9 32 33 25 19 3 = 39/100
$3 MORE LUCKY LINES: 34 23 7 12 19 19 11 31 30 24 27 5 = 37/100
$2 POLAR BEAR BUCKS: 34 29 25 29 28 31 1 4 11 27 24 26 = 35/100
$1 LUCKY LINES EXPRESS: 34 24 30 32 33 1 2 18 25 32 15 23 = 34/100
$4 CASH FOR LIFE (new): 19 26 24 21 30 32 30 10 22 9 30 28 = 32/100
$2 FAST $200s: 34 34 34 34 8 29 31 29 31 19 17 17 = 20/100
$1 RED HOT $50s: 34 34 34 34 34 13 17 30 32 30 20 33 = 17/100
Much appreciated, CL66!
DeleteTmF
Doug's formula, as i see it, doesn't value prizes above $100 to less than a grand prize. With Crossword Tripler (green), that's 3,792 prizes of $150 up to $10,000. That he values the highest % of total prize $ set for $100 and under, favours low cost games, such as $1 Bingo Express, as it only has 4 of it's 791,427 prizes above $50. Unfortunately, 92% of all it's prizes are only $1 or $2. The other aspect he uses, a ratio of top available prizes and their $ value, should value highly the new Cash For Life game, as it has 10 highly attractive grand prizes of $675,000. Unfortunately, the reality is that it has 15.4 million tickets with 99% of all it's prizes at $20 or less. My system, which the only flaw i see, is in that it takes too damn long to do, tg it's only once a week - lol, rates games in 13 categories, as i value any offered prize, and then a summary overall rating. I post full stats on all of them, as i want someone to be able to choose from that, their ideal apsects in what makes a ticket a worthy try at. As the name of the blog says, it's scratch and win ticket ADVICE, we are not the "final word", and you wouldnt be here if you "just ignore both of our methods and go with your gut" - lol. I know i have done much better since i joined this blog, so far this year, i have won 5x or more on my $ on 60+ tickets. \(^_^)/
ReplyDeleteCL66,
DeleteI am looking for ways to improve the formula. The problem is (if it is a problem) that the range of values I get for the ratio of outstanding winners to the $ associated with those prices is much greater than the range for the Small Prize return rate. My formula attempts to weight them equally but what happens is when a game gets near its end, such as Bingo Express, and an imbalance of Grand Prizes remains, the value for that game jumps significantly.
In the case of Bingo Express, 12% of the prizes remain (120 of 961) and 29% of the money ($25,900 of $87850). That yields a ratio of 2.36. The second highest number is for Wild Card at 1.51. The standard deviation for all games is 34.4. This means that the top game is over two standard deviations away from the second highest rated value. The standard deviation for the Small Prize factor is less than 5 and there is close bunching of all games on that factor.
As a result, a game like Bingo Express becomes an significant outlier and that's why it rests on top of my ratings. I have given thought to capping the remaining size of the float to not less than 15% or 20% as it is at that point that tickets become harder to find. Not sure if that is a good idea or not.
As for your numbers, it is my view that any one of your lists has value on a stand alone basis. I generally pick a low multiple and a high multiple and see it I can find a game that rates well on both criteria. The problem comes when you total all lists together to arrive at your top rated games. Your method double,triple, and quadruple etc counts middling prizes and that provides those games with an unjustified high rating. You also switch to dollar values at a point which discriminates against lower priced games. It only stands to reason that my chances to win $100 should be much greater for a $10 game than for a $3 game. Lastly, your system pays no attention to the size of the Grand Prize. To wit, the comment of this week comparing the Grand Prizes for Spectacular and Gift Pack. Gift Pack has two more Grand Prizes than Spectacular but Spectacular's Grand Prize is 5X as large. Your method actually favours the Git Pack over Spectacular whereas from my perspective Spectacular is a much better choice from the $50,000 or more perspective. In Gift Pack, $0.019 of every dollar spent on the game goes to the Grand Prize winners. For Spectacular, $0.080 goes to its Grand prize winners. Although Spectacular rates #1 on your $50,000 list, you have the Gift Pack at #3. IMO, the game is much worse.
We can continue this argument once the new CFL game gets released.
Cheers.
Doug
Well as usual, i see a difference of perspective, not an argument - my view is that, anything with average odds of 1 in a million should only be held with the slightest of hopes - the fact sheet for the new CFL game has been posted awhile now, so why do you need the ticket to be released to give your opnion on it? i`ve already stated my view that ths game clearly sucks - i won`t even buy one until later in its run IF the odds on a grand prize come down to a decent level - i of course expect you to have an opposite view, yet i expect mostly negative posts from all others on this game in the coming months.
DeleteHttps://soundcloud.com/user-553408740/hello
ReplyDeleteI won $490 on Pro Line last Sunday, on three NFL games. I played 3 games and 2 were underdogs. The reason the payout was so high is because I bet $50. Just had a good feeling about the games.
ReplyDeleteHas anybody been playing those $10 Instant Gift Packs. I've played 2 so far, winning my $10 back on each one. For the price of $10 and only a $50K grand prize this seems a little weak. You might as well buy the $10 Holiday Spectacular for a $250K Grand Prize....the odds are much better to win the Grand Prize for Holiday Spectacular. It just makes sense.
ReplyDeleteThe odds are NOT much different to win either grand prize - current estimates put Spectacular at 1 in 235,000 and the Gift Pack at 1 in 265,000 - Spectacular can offer the better grand prize because it has only 8 prizes above $150 while the Gift Pack has 269 - odds to win $100 or more on Spectacular are 1 in 434 while the Gift Pack is nearly 3 times better at 1 in 158.
DeleteI haven't yet. Like CL66 notes, the payout money is just moved around. If you're aiming for the top prize then Spectacular's is 5x larger than Gift's. Gift does have more mid-sized prizes on the other hand. There's always a trade off since OLG doesn't payback more than 70% on their games.
Delete@TMF, I say 'screw those mid-size prizes.' When I buy a ticket, I want the best chance at winning the Grand Prize, not the middle prize LOL.
DeletePut it this way Tommy, you got $80 in your pocket and you are at the strip club and looking to get a lap dance which costs $80. Girl#1 is hot and rated 10/10 (Grand Prize) and Girl#2 is rated 5/10 (mid-prize)...obviously you are going to pick Girl#1.
But don't be like Charlie Sheen, Wrap your Peen.
I'm not old enough to... never mind. Let's just say I only act as an advisor and helper to my mother who buys these games. For legal reasons, she has to buy and collect them... enough said.
DeleteIf your goal is a top prize then you'll have to do a little deeper digging of the information available here. Doug's " Best Games If All You Want Is A Grand Prize" list will account for odds, prize size and cost (which doesn't seem to be an issue for some players here). Or with CL66's "Available grand prizes (by the odds):" list you'll have to find the minimumally acceptable top prize amount starting from the top.
The reason why you're not seeing Spectacular ranked based on your argument is because CL66's top category is the "$50,000 or more" category. A game which tops out at $50,000 but has very good odds of $50,000 will skew the calculation. As you've reasoned, given the same cost and roughly the same odds, why wouldn't you play the game with the higher prize (given that's your goal)?
If there were categories of "$100,000 or more" or "$250,000 or more" or $500,000 or more" or "$1M or more" then the rankings would/might change to reflect this.
As an extreme example of the effect of choosing fixed categories, let's look at 500 Frenzy. It ranks poorly in the $50,000=+, $5,000=+ and $1,000=+ categories. Obviously, since the game's top prize is $500! Yet the poor standing in those three categories affects its overall ranking. Still, there have been two reported winners of the top prize (ranked #1 on the SPPB list) on this board. Three for Fast 200s (ranked #7 on the SPPB list). Yeah, a little back patting if no one on this board minds.
Still, I believe the ultimate list is the expected value returned per dollar bet based on the estimated remaining float (with margin of error). This would account for odds (no matter how remote), cost and top prize amounts.
For now, you'll have to make due with the lists provided and apply any adjustments you see fit. Good luck no matter which game(s) you play!
TmF
P.S. Someone told me there was a lot of "inflation" in strip clubs but I didn't think he was talking about the prices of lap dances. I hope those lap dances lasts longer than it takes to scratch 16 Crossword Triplers!
Bought one - Didn't win a thing. Haven't bothered buying anymore since.
DeleteI went to get two more Wild and the store had three left so of course I can't leave one ticket there. Three more losses. 13 Wild Cards in a row no wins. Has to be my longest no win streak.
ReplyDeletethat's gross, you should probably pick a new ticket lol.
DeleteTime to rotate out?
DeleteSometimes I find there are just games where I can't hit the side of a barn door after I've led all the horses out to water.
Or you might just want to limit yourself to one a week given Wild still ranks pretty high on the top prize-float list.
By the way, my record is 16 Crossword losers in a row.
TmF
A Different Kind of Number Crunch:
ReplyDeleteI've often been curious about how and why it is that some lottery draw games have winners coming forward at different intervals to claim their prizes. Doug mentioned before the 64 million prize winner still outstanding, for example. And of course it's always fun to think that maybe that 649 quickpick you haven't checked for weeks, or maybe an advance play that you bought a while back, might just be a winner.
As well, it seems probable that most Max etc...buyers likely check/redeem/discard their tickets quickly, probably 95% or more before the next draw. That's what I see, anyway. So it is always curious when one notes unclaimed prizes for these draws with specific draw times, as opposed to scratch tickets.
Here's what I did:
I took all the recent winners on the OLG site, a month's worth of data, about 2500 winners. Usually about 100 winners or more are listed each day the prize centre is open. First I looked at all the 'major' winners ($1000+) as a whole. Then I looked at a key subset, the truly large winners of prizes $100,000 and up (less than 5% of total major winners). I did not include insider winners, and group wins were only counted as one instance of winning, no matter how many names in the group. My data includes part of October and all of November to earlier this week.
It only includes winners of draws with a specific date, not instant prize winners or those listed as "multiple draws"
Here's what I found:
Overall, 93% of all "major" wins claimed ($1000+) occurred with one month of the draw date.
53% of really large prizes ($100,000+) claimed occurred within one week of the draw date.
9% of really large prizes were claimed in the second week after a draw.
20% of really large prizes were claimed in the third or fourth week after a draw.
17% of really large prizes were claimed later than one month after the drawing. (I did not break down how long, whether this was two or eight months, for example)
These numbers are of course descriptive, not prescriptive, but since all these tickets expire in 365 days, the description would logically become prescriptive if repeated over time, and I have no reason to suspect otherwise. (There may be periods such as summer holidays when redemptions take longer, but all have to be reconciled within 365 days so this should all normalize over time)
So, with REALLY big prizes ($100,000+) more than half of winners still come forward within one week, and about 83% will claim within a month.
So...it might be worth looking for those tickets under your couch for that $64 million draw just in case, as the possible float of unchecked winners is probably very small by now, LOL!
Obviously, winning $50 million may give you a lot to think and worry about, which could take more time before you come forward. Got to delist that phone number, etc... Same with smaller but significant amounts. It would be too lengthy to try to list all the personal reasons there might be for delaying cashing in a ticket (on holidays, hiding from publicity, waiting for a discharge from bankruptcy etc....)
But still, most do come forward relatively quickly, over half within mere days of the drawing for the biggest prizes.
Ticket redemption includes some interesting behaviour analysis, of course. And if you are part of a group, or live far from Toronto, you will almost certainly be slower to come forward to claim the dough while you get your group ready and/or travel plans sorted out.
I would be interested to do the same sort of analysis for scratch games, but they lack the same fixed time elements and would appear to require more constant monitoring of the recent winners lists to be able to compare game date of issue with redemption dates. Not sure that this would demonstrate anything as clear as the draw games given the greater variables and unknowns.
If I won a prize of $100K or more, I would be heading down to the OLG prize center ASAP, anything below $100K, I wouldn't be in a rush. My scratch ticket money for this week will be going towards 6/49 Superdraw. Lotto Max really needs to step up and do some sort of superdraw of its own. Lotto Max just really pisses me off in general, the Jackpot gets won maybe once a month....and those stupid maxmillion prizes never get won either (maxmillion prizes should be guaranteed). You get 25 maxmillions and maybe 2 of those get won because the odds to match are still 1 in 28 million...rant over....stupid damn lotto max, I will still buy a stupid damn ticket for it anyways.
DeleteI actually have a serious question...In the history of the lottery, has a jackpot ever been won off a 'free play' ticket? I think all 'free play' tickets are literally pre-programmed to not win a jackpot. Every time I check my tickets, its always...you won a stupid 'free play' and then the retailer asks me if I want "encore" with that....Obviously I say, 'F*ck no' ,because that ticket is a guaranteed loser anyways and just crumple it and throw it in the damn garbage.
+1 on the maxmillion prizes being guaranteed. Pick a line of numbers that you know has been sold, pick actual ticket numbers, or put a guaranteed prize number on each ticket like the 6/49 and do the maxmillions that way.
DeleteFree plays don't put a player in any less of a chance to win. When the draws are made, the balls in the machine don't have any idea what numbers have been sold or whether they came from a free play or not.
Yes, a maxmillion should be guaranteed prize winner for a SINGLE PERSON....the worst is when multiple people win the same maxmillion prize...therefore, you have to split your maxmillion prize....you beat the odds of 1 in 28 million and only win a measley 500K or less...now that would suck, because you will never match that again in your lifetime. I believe that happened on the last draw with a maxmillion prize.
DeleteOdds to win more than 10x your $:
ReplyDelete1 in 180 $5 TRIPLING RED 7'S
1 in 253 $1 RED HOT $50s
1 in 295 $5 $500 FRENZY
1 in 367 $2 GOLDEN 7s
1 in 410 $1 $10,000 SPIN
1 in 442 $3 FROSTY TRIPLER
1 in 466 $3 MORE LUCKY LINES
1 in 506 $5 BINGO DOUBLER
1 in 545 $5 WILD CARD
1 in 629 $3 SWEET CASH
1 in 654 $5 MERRY MONEY MULTIPLIER
1 in 666 $2 FAST $200s / $3 CROSSWORD / $10 GIFT PACK
1 in 688 $5 CROSSWORD TRIPLER
1 in 797 $3 BINGO
1 in 847 $3 CASHINGO
1 in 914 $2 10X THE MONEY
1 in 1,144 $3 SUPER BINGO
1 in 1,553 $5 ACES & 8's
1 in 2,034 $1 5X THE MONEY
1 in 2,326 $4 CASH FOR LIFE
1 in 2,830 $2 POLAR BEAR BUCKS
1 in 2,989 $1 LUCKY LINES EXPRESS
1 in 3,161 $1 BINGO EXPRESS
1 in 3,256 $10 HOLIDAY SPECTACULAR
1 in 3,683 $4 CASH FOR LIFE (new)
1 in 6,806 $3 KENO
1 in 9.915 $20 EXTREME MILLIONS
1 in 11,538 $10 CLASSIC WHITE 2
1 in 83,758 $10 DIAMOND PAYOUT
I managed to grab a dozen Bingo $1 cards at some Toronto retailers. Will let everyone know if I get a big winner, LOL.
ReplyDeleteIt's interesting to note that this week's Lotto 649 superdraw "is funded out of the 7%" allotted to the guaranteed prize draws.
So they are giving out an extra $2 million this week. Why?
The likely answer, I think, is that many don't fully understand the guaranteed prize draw and probably don't check their tickets properly.
For example, the overwhelming majority of tickets bought are single line tickets. I did a number crunch on guaranteed prize wins of tickets with 5 or more lines, and that number is less than 10%. If you buy 10 lines, for example, the ticket will indicate your guaranteed prize numbers range from 12345678-01 to 12345678-10. Bu if the winning guaranteed prize ended with -05, you won't see -05 on the end of that ticket, just the range.
I would bet many players, a lot of seniors probably, still just check tickets visually and are vulnerable to missing some big wins if they expect to see their exact numbers on the ticket.
That's the downside of these 'bonus' draws - players have likely already paid for them.
Another good reason to not trash any tickets, scratch or otherwise, until you have scanned them!
a big winner on $1 Bingo Express? lol - it has odds of 1 in 45 to win more than just $2 (O_o)
DeleteTrue. And what is also true is that with a 58.7% Small Prize return rate he should expect to obtain a return of $7 while enjoying a one in 15,000 chance to win $10,000. Looking forward to hear of his result.
Delete(0_o) 1 in 15,000?! lol - i estimate it at 1 in 187,000.
DeleteFor any one ticket - he has a dozen.
Deleteoofa - my bad - so really it's 12 chances at 2 $10k prizes within only 374,000 remaining tickets - got it.
DeleteWoohoo! Picked up a whole booklet of 16 Bingo $1 from one retailer, plus a few singles in the 'hood yesterday. I have 36 now, will try for 50 or so and scratch them next weekend or so.
Delete@Randy, I played the last two 6/49 Superdraws and 98% of the 56 guaranteed draws ended with -01. Your best bet is to buy a bunch of ONE line tickets and NOT purchase ONE ticket with MULTIPLE LINES. Sure you will have a boat load of tickets this way, but this will substantially increase your odds of hopefully winning one of the guaranteed prizes. .
ReplyDelete@CL66....I'm currently laughing my ass off at the 1 in 45 to win more than just $2.
Thanks - good to see someone else see the reality with it! lol
DeleteAnonymous, you said of purchasing single line 649 tickets over multiple line tickets....."this will substantially increase your odds of hopefully winning one of the guaranteed prizes. ."
DeleteCareful there, Anonymous. Our minds can play tricks on us. Your comment is a good example.
The guaranteed prize draw is actually a raffle, not a lottery, strictly speaking. Only tickets actually entered can win, not hypothetical sets of numbers. Each ticket line has the same odds as any other ticket line.
Whether or not the computer picks a ticket number ending with 01 or 10 is simply a function of random luck, based on its trolling among the purchased ticket numbers (of which it is true, most are single line purchases, but that is not relevant since only one ticket and no duplicates are chosen for each draw). One chance is one chance only.
If there were subsidiary prizes, you might have a stronger case for the -01 line selections. The odds are actually not increased one iota by purchasing single lines over multiple lines on a ticket, however. Only the perception, ex post facto the draw, of whether your chances are better based on what numbers came up in the draw.
So, if you hang on to a bunch of single line tickets, don't check the guaranteed prize winner in detail for a while, on the assumption that most such numbers will end with-01 you can enjoy the 'fantasy' that you might have won for a bit longer, which of course is part of the fun. Even more so if the winning number ended with -06 or -09 or such, and you have a ticket with that many lines, making your perceived odds even better since so few play that many lines.
And this is not to judge you for that, since we all enjoy the fantasy fun involved in wondering "what if" and would not be posting here if we didn't!
But just be clear that actual odds and perceived odds (and ex post facto rationalizations) are quite different things.
Enjoy them both, and I hope you win one of the superdraws!
Another point to consider with the guaranteed prize draw discussion is that just because a selection ending in -01 gets chosen, doesn't mean it was only 1 line that was played. Every ticket that gets sold across Canada will have a -01 entry in the draw, so a -01 winning number could come from a single line ticket just as much as it could come from any other number of lines played. Everyone has -01 in the draw, so the fact it might get randomly selected more often makes sense.
DeleteOut of interest, I've wondered sometimes how the guaranteed prize numbers get arranged in the central computer. It doesn't make a difference in a random selection decision since it could pick any one of them (whether sold early in the draw period or late), but it's just something that has crossed my mind before. I wonder if it's a huge list of millions of numbers that get listed as they're sold across Canada (could be a number starting with 5, then a number starting with 0 underneath that, followed by a number starting with 7, etc.) or are the numbers grouped as a region and ordered that way (will the numbers starting with 0 or 1 (BC region) always be at the start of the list, with Ontario's 4's or 5's always in the middle?) Not that it makes a difference in the end, but it's something I've wondered.
DeleteGames set to retire tomorrow:
ReplyDelete$1 $10,000 Spin
$1 Bingo Express
$1 5X The Money
$3 Sweet Cash
Deactivated games with retirement dates:
$2 10X The Money Nov.30th
$5 Aces & 8's Nov.30th
$2 Fast $200s Dec.21st
$3 Super Bingo Dec.21st
Coming soon:
$30 $250 Million Golden Treasures Nov.30th
$3 Scrabble Dec.7th
Oddly, while promoted on the Gift Pack, listed on the OLG website and tv commercials airing, there still is no release date for the new Cash For Life game or retail advertising for it in place.
Lots of $1 bingo on the west end of Ottawa here. I recommend anyone close by to buy them up. I have easily gotten 30+ in the last two weeks and roughly won $2 or 3 as a result. Now that I have gotten rid of the losers, someone should win a bit of money around here lol.
ReplyDelete"30+ and roughly won $2 or 3 "?!! - "someone should win a bit of money around here" - so like maybe even $5 or $10? ha ha!
Deletelol with my luck recently, I would pretty much take anything!
DeleteTommy,
ReplyDelete"there have been two reported winners of the top prize (ranked #1 on the SPPB list) on this board. Three for Fast 200s (ranked #7 on the SPPB list). Yeah, a little back patting if no one on this board minds"
How many of these claimed wins posted any proof of them? I post pics of all my noteable winning tickets with payout receipts. A post from anyone "anonymous" laying claim to a win without proof isn`t a credible source for a valid statement.
I agree with you, CL66. And I'd really prefer that everyone doesn't post every little win they have. And please don't post losers either!
DeleteI think it's relatively safe to accept the word of small prize winners since the odds (1-in-560, 500 Frenzy; 1-in-800, Fast 200s) they had to overcome weren't huge. After all, you've overcome 1-in-70,000+ odds (I'm still amazed!). I would be weary if someone overcomes 100,000-to-1 odds on a regular basis without posting proof AND an 'expense sheet' though.
The main point isn't the back patting, mind you. It was just to point out why Spectacular which costs the same and has a higher top prize is ranked below Gift on your list, especially for those who are searching only to win top prizes. I was just trying to explain the difficulty in comparing games when they have different prize structures and costs and odds.
I completely agree with you that the top prize is insanely hard to win but people do win it and players do vie for it despite the odds.
I thought "Anonymous" (yes, I would prefer everyone choose a handle!) had a valid question being a top prize seeker.
For now, I don't see a real formula other than an Expected Value model applied in an up-to-date fashion (a lot of work by hand). What works/worked for each of us doesn't mean it's a formula. Since I play fewer games, the SPPB seems more appropriate for me. Since you are a lucky player, you're listings/calculations have been paying off for you and I'm glad for you. But these are not formulas. Others who use these lists aren't guaranteed to duplicate our results (no matter how much I want to be able to get hits like yours!).
That's the scientific method. The results have to be able to be duplicated by others applying the method in the same way. So in a way, the lists here are guides which do help but are not guarantees.
Please don't take offence to any criticism. The important thing is your lists work for you and what I admire about you is that you're constantly seeking to improve them. Also note that a lot of readers ARE appreciative because you're willing to post and share your lists. Those who post their ideas will always be open to criticism, not those who don't.
Good luck and continued success for you.
TmF
@CL66, I only won $100 on my Extreme Millions recently (which I don't think is worthy enough of photo proof) lol. That's the most I ever won on a scratch ticket anyways. If I ever win something of $1000 or more, I will provide picture proof but anything less is pointless. You must be talking about a different anonymous as I have noticed many other anonymous's writing on here.
DeleteI am a grand prize seeker which is why I look forward to the new $30 game coming out soon, I am interested to see the spec sheet for the game. Like TMF says, people do win the grand prizes, so anything can happen, anyone can win.
I won 1000 before I am anonymous but I have proof I could say my name, I didn't post a pic because I feel 10 000 and up are only worthy
ReplyDeleteOkay, I am the real anonymous. I am the creator of the 'Anon Theory' and who might you be ?
DeleteIs it fair to say that this how you would figure out how many lottery plays/lines were purchased for each lottery. For example,
ReplyDeleteLotto 6/49
Total sales: $17,489,649 / $3 per play = 5,829,883 lines
This means for this draw- You had a 1 in 5,829,883 chance at winning the $1 million Guaranteed prize draw. If so, those are AWFUL odds at winning a million bucks. This makes CFL/DCFL look like heaven for the extra buck.
Anonymous,
DeleteYou are generally on the right track with your estimations, I think. I do something similar to estimate actual odds, after a draw and before I have checked any tickets, and also looking at future draws.
But....be sure you also account for free tickets in those odds. Lotto 649 has a1 in 8.3 chance to win a free ticket, so add 12% to your total float. If the last draw was a higher sales draw, you would logically add the 12% based on that draw's sales, not the current one, although we can debate whether more people redeem free tickets for a Wednesday (lower interest) or Saturday draw.
Then, if you read the press release and know a winner is sold in your province, you can reduce the odds accordingly, more so if your city is named.
Of course this is all after the fact, ex post facto, reasoning and imagining, but it can be fun to dream.....
Looking ahead, I see that the last Lotto 649 superdraw (In March) sold about $21,500,000 (on March 18) worth of tickets and had a similar major jackpot of around $15 million as will the draw tomorrow.
Assuming tomorrow's draw attracts similar interest, that equates to about 8,000,000 expected tickets in the float (including past free plays). So one ticket has 56 chances to win a guaranteed prize of 10,000,100,000 or 1 million (mostly the lower ones, of course!)
You could read that as about a 1:142,857 chance to win a decent prize in 649 tomorrow, guaranteed draws only
.
Still high, but actually better odds than some scratch tickets for their big prizes. Might be worth playing for that reason.
I like your thoughts and calculations Randy..
DeleteGood luck on the 6/49 super draw tonight everyone
Tommy,
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, much of what's on the internet needs to be "taken with a grain of salt". Trust in content should be continually earned. Any statements i may make, i ensure to have as sound a basis as possible and/or with proof on hand. I will continue to question the validity of claims from anyone who is not a known regular poster on this blog. I would like to continue to help uphold the integrity and decorum Doug and others continually demonstrate here. For me, i`m leery of any claimed amount of $100 or +.
My comment wasn't ever meant to be "taking a shot at you". My apologies if you seen it as such. I see you as a valued regular here and i appreciate your opinions and comments, no matter positive or negative.
I also do not beleive in such a thing as a "formula to win more". While my "number crunch" is definately a helpful part of why i win more than expected, there is else i may weigh with my choices. For the most part, i side with what's more likely, yet i do not hold expectation. This is why i have no beleif in SPPB%. I also find "return on investment" + "scratch ticket", to be an oxymoron. I beleive thru the efforts of myself and others here tho, we have helped each other do better! (^_^)
Fair enough, CL66.
ReplyDeleteThe reason why I use more salt on certain issues is because it depends on whether I believe it effects me or not.
For example, I would say for almost all players, it's important to them that they at least have a (miniscule) chance of winning the top prize. For inter-provincial games, that means if it can't be mathematically proven there's still a chance of winning a top prize, they shouldn't play it. If the draw game process isn't fair, they shouldn't play it. If odds are mis-labelled, players should be warned, etc., etc.. But, these claims would require some (preferable mathematical) proof.
For posting winning tickets, I use a little salt because those wins, although pretty to look at and nice to know they exist, serve more to share joy and amazement. I don't believe winning tickets serve to prove anything. For example, if you believe Bingo Express is a poor game but I buy 3000 tickets, win one $50, tell the board I bought five tickets and post the $50 winner just to disprove your number crunch, would that be accepted as proof? Yes, the internet can be a deceptive place!
At any rate, I wasn't trying to espouse the SPPB% over any other method and I've stated many times the limitations of looking at the SPPB%. I was only trying to figure out something Doug and Anonymous was asking about, something that I didn't notice, which is why when comparing Spectacular and Gift, both of which cost the same and have the same approximate odds of winning the top prize, does Gift ranks higher even with a top prize that's 5x less.
I wasn't and didn't mean to be critical of your system in any way.
I just noticed that Gift, being a $10 game with a lot of $50,000 top prizes (but nothing higher), would end up ranking higher because the top category of your system is $50,000=+. If you added categories like $100,000=+ and/or $250,000=+ and/or $500,000=+, the rankings might appear differently. Just an observation, nothing more.
Continued good luck and karma to you,
TmF
CL66 and Tommy,
DeleteYours is an interesting back and forth.
I like and appreciate the crunches you post, CL66. But I am always looking for holes in reasoning, my own and that of others, so as to be realistic in my expectations. I always assume there are some big "unknowns" that could upset the apple cart and try not to repeat my own rationales, as do you when you change your systems up here and there. I agree that "return on investment" is delusional - kind of like the way people continue to talk in our current real estate bubble (soon to crash I am pretty sure)
As for SPPB, I find that helpful in a practical way. My play is entertainment through gambling, and kinda like those clinics on Vancouver's downtown east side, I always keep in mind "harm reduction" (As my wife reminds me!). SPPB is a useful way to look at mitigating losses, and I have been able to achieve over 60% payback, so only losing 40% or less makes it affordable fun that does not affect my life. (Plus I don't smoke or drink or have other expensive habits, so monthly ticket expenses is not an issue.)
Still, I have yet to win over $100 on any scratch ticket, though every couple years seem to get one bigger winner (in the hundreds) on the draw games. Charity lotteries have been pretty good to me, though the costs are much higher and the lower prizes junky sometimes, but the grand prize odds can be quite good.
Re-examining CL66's compact crunch, Gift does do very well on numerous categories ($50k+ down to 8x-10x)... if there were some way to recognize the existence of Spectacular's higher prize but lower probability of winning that higher prize... maybe weighting the categories by likelihood?!?
DeleteAnyways, I'm just thinking out loud here and nothing more.... back to Cupcake Mania!
TmF
@Randy, thanks for your interesting look at the timing of redemptions.
ReplyDeleteBecause of the delays in redeeming large prizes sometimes, would it be safer to avoid playing games with only one/two top prize remaining given that the ticket could already be won but not claimed? I'll have to give this one some thought....
TmF
I agree Tommy, it might be wise to avoid such games, though if they only have a couple of prizes and are interprovincial the odds are already not good.
DeleteThe tough thing with scratch redemptions is not knowing how often and how completely the tranches go out to retailers, urban vs rural and all that stuff that people have discussed here. I would imagine scratch winner redemption behaviour mirrors that of 649 etc... winners, but can't see how to gather the evidence as clearly.
Meanwhile, we have a small bunch of million+ prizes from 1 million to 64 million unclaimed from Ontario for the last month, so check your tickets folks!
@TMF and Randy, Also keep in mind, a game with 1 top prize remaining...there's a good chance that ticket might not even be printed.....according to Doug and CL66's scratch ticket printing insiders.
DeleteI do play Proline - the NFL Props mostly. Minimum play is 3 props (lines), Maximum Play is 6 props. Maximum that the cashier will allow you to buy is $100 worth. Bets can range from $2 to $100.
ReplyDeleteMy current win ratio is below 20% thanks to last night. Roughly you need a winning ticket out of 5 to break even. (my experience playing 3-4lines per ticket)
The benefits I find with the Props cards is that yo have a pile of statistics to draw your conclusions from.
But the unexpected does happen. One of my lines was a loser because a referee blew an "inadvertent whistle" which negated a 69 yard play. This caused 3 of my tickets to be losers and turned what would have been a decent winnings into a losing night.
Also the OLG will drop some plays if it goes LLE. If many people place a bunch of money on the same lines the OLG will drop that combination as it has become too highly desired and they will lose too much money out of the pool if everyone is right. When you see a tasty combo come up you need to get your tickets in the morning before it goes LLE.
Thanks for the blog. I will buy some scratch tickets today although I do feel that the odds are better if we all played Props! :)
LOOKS LIKE ELLIOT LAKE CLAIMED A LOTTO 6/49 7 Million jackpot. They already got a Fortune GP $1 million scratch ticket and just recently an Extreme GP $1 million scratch ticket. I guess extremely small towns can be hot spots lol. That's crazy.
ReplyDeleteTheyre probably just trying to prop up the hosing market in that area, lol
Deleteobviously the Sudbury area is a shit hole. So having winners there will increase consumer spending and economic growth for that area. Jason, you know why Ottawa never gets Grand Prizes....because its a government city.
Deletehee hee - thanks for the laugh Jason! (^_^)
DeleteTommy,
ReplyDelete"I would say for almost all players, it's important to them that they at least have a (miniscule) chance of winning the top prize" - the majority of ticket buyers do so as an impulse purchase with little if any knowledge if any prize they seek is even available - this past springtime i watched a guy sifting thru Cashingo's and buying 7 of them, even tho i told him it had no grand prizes available then - it's sad to see the majority easily willingly put their $ on something with wishful intent and little insight - the OLG knows this, so games they issue are "what will sell", whether a game is any good is a minor factor - the OLG does release information on all their games, while maybe not as much as some of us would like, yet how can they be blamed when a customer is oblivious to any of the information they do provide.
"For inter-provincial games, that means if it can't be mathematically proven there's still a chance of winning a top prize, they shouldn't play it." - no one should buy a ticket for any game if there are no top prizes available - bias against inter-provincial games, in my opinion, are misguided, as the majority of them are sold in Ontario.
"Bingo Express is a poor game but I buy 3000 tickets, win one $50..." - while it's true that no one may ever admit to how many losers they had before they got their winners, your figure of 3000 is hilarious, i think theres an incredibly small amount of people who would even buy 100 of a ticket over it's entire duration - proof of a win itself is good enough for me - i have 6 wins of $100 or more this year so far and i find it funny if someone thinks i`m spending a ton of $ on them to end up with such - if i had that kind of disposable income, i wouldn`t be buying scratch tickets at all! lol
" If you added categories like $100,000+...' - i won't ever add a category over $50,000 to my number crunch - my view is that, when something hits odds of like 1 in 200,000+, i don't see it as a credible factor whatsoever - i do keep the slightest of hopes for a huge prize someday, but i`m not one to easily wish $ away on something with massive odds - when i set my key $ amounts for my number crunch, i took a look at EVERY single prize offered by EVERY game and tried to find commonalities as to offer a balanced view - it had to have it's limits and so i choose $50k as the max - I do post odds for 13 categories, so someone CAN choose their own target amount - if they want just a grand prize, my weekly number crunch post has it - if someone just wants an overall what's best, i offer my opinion on that also - i recommend people also read the comments on the blog as to others experiences with certain tickets and see if that matches what you, i or Doug have said - sorry Doug, but has much praise ever been posted on any $1/$2 ticket by others? lol
"even tho i told him it had no grand prizes available"... -- yes, that happens a lot out there but the main issue here IS the topic of grand prizes, specifically Doug and Anonymous' issue of Spectacular v. Gift.
ReplyDeleteAs for IP games, I'd have to respectfully disagree with you here. It's nice to be able to say with confidence that there's no top prizes left for Cashingo (in your above example). With a fair and random distribution, even with Ontario getting and selling the majority of IP tickets, there exists the risk that one might be playing the game with no top prizes (I assume here that everyone is buying their tickets in Ontario) left since there isn't a breakdown of top prizes claimed by provinces and so I would exercise some caution here.
The Bingo Express example I used was extreme but only meant to re-enforce your point that deception is/can be widespread on the internet and things should be taken with 'a grain of salt' as you said. As for me, I prefer both proof of wins and proof of losses, something I'm sure isn't realistically attainable and as such I add salt to all reported results.
As for your lists and categories, of course, it's your prerogative to set them as you see fit. I'm sure everyone here will respect your decision(s). "I do post odds for 13 categories, so someone CAN choose their own target amount" -- yes, and that's something I recommended to Anonymous in my first reply to his post, that for those seeking the top prize, there is information here available but not necessarily simply in the overall ranking list you provide.
Ultimately, I'll leave this topic as is as I've noted initially, I didn't even notice Anonymous' and Doug's point of Spectacular v. Gift to begin with. Hopefully, our back-and-forth has given them what they wanted in terms of reconciling their concern/issue.
Good luck and good karma to you,
TmF
The banter about low end prizes lately is interesting and it all comes back to approx the same number which is spend a dollar win .50 cents..whether you're using a R.O.I. as means or S.P.P.B.% or a 2x5x etc.it all equates to very close to losing half your dollars.
ReplyDeleteI don't always agree with cl66 that I feel he under values the higher grand prizes and over values the mid level prizes..And I don't always agree with Doug's top picks either , for instance I never bought or even looked for his current top game choice.
I'm a grand prize seeker and all those mid level prizes are fine but I focus more on the biggest prize with the best odds and hopefully buy my tickets at half price by rolling all the little prizes into more tickets. .lol..
I've gave up on $5 wild card because I played too many tickets and had to pay full price because of very few wins.
I've played 3 $10 spectacular so far at a cost of only $15 out of pocket cost because of a single $15 winner.
So a simple calculation (because math isn't Darth's strongest point) is choose a game that has the best odds on the biggest top prizes and roll your little prizes over into half price tickets. .lol..
I for one will be buying the new CFL game when it comes out and yes I should be getting mine for about half price. .lol..
I'm amazed at some of the posts lately we certainly have some thinkers on here..and the grammar is goid aslo witch also isn't one of strongre pointz.
Good luck everyone
I guess I should have stated more clearly in my first post in response to Anonymous' question concerning Spec v. Gift, that because we all might have different goals (light entertainment, minimize losses, top prize, play time, game style, etc.) it sometimes isn't as simple as taking any or the top name off any list.
DeleteYes, it's true. Sometimes I feel like a nut and sometimes I don't. As long as I reach for Almond Joy(tm) when I do and Mounds(tm) when I don't, I have a better chance of being satisfied. Ie., you have to find what's appropriate for what you're looking for.
In defense of CL66's method, because I don't want everyone to think that I'm always on the complete opposite side of what he believes, even if it seems to focus more on the middle prizes, he has done very well with middle prizes so his system works well for him. I really wouldn't want him to change it if it ends up hurting him and his results. Also, as some may have noticed, I'm a big fan of his compact crunch which, after the numbers are lined up, gives a very quick comparative view of the games if one is focused on a particular part of the prize spectrum. I know CL66 likes 2x plus high ranking. I happen to prefer 4x to 6-8x plus ranking from this list, as my starting point.
But like you, I also give CFL regular play because I am willing to take my lumps in hopes of a top prize win, despite the crazy odds. I know it's a longshot and I accept it, ie. in this case, I feel like a nut (LOL!).
GLTA,
TmF
Although CL66's method may work for some games, It most definitely does not for the case of Spec v. Gift. There is no coming to his defense if he states Gift as the better game, that is absolutely ridiculous. Both games cost $10, here is a simple breakdown for when both games were released for the top 2 prizes and not just the Grand Prize.
DeleteHoliday Spectacular: 5 x $ 250,000= $ 1, 250, 000
2 x $100, 000= $ 200, 000
TOTAL = $ 1, 450, 000 in Prize Money
Total Tickets: 1, 299, 200 / 7 = 185,600
* Therefore, you have a 1 in 185,600 chance at winning $100K-$250K.
Instant GP: 6 x $50, 000 = $300, 000
3 x $25, 000 = $ 75, 000
TOTAL= $375, 000 in Prize Money
Total Tickets: 1,720,200 / 9 = 191,133
* Therefore, you have a 1 in 191,133 chance at winning $25K-50K.
In Conclusion:
Not only does Holiday Spectacular offer better odds to winning the Grand Prize and Secondary Prize, but also Grand Prize and Secondary Prize winnings are substantially larger than the Instant Gift Pack.
Now if you are going to say, well what about the mid-prizes- low prizes? Honestly, give your head a shake...who the hell says..."I'm going to buy this game because I have a good chance at winning the 4th or 5th prize in it." If your logic is going for mid-low prizes...then basically you are saying that you would still buy a scratch ticket if all of its Grand Prizes and Secondary Prizes were claimed and they had a good amount of mid-low prizes left.....chances are...you people stop playing a scratch game as soon as the Grand Prizes are all gone anyways.
** I did notice today that another Holiday Spectacular GP was claimed.
"Not only does Holiday Spectacular offer better odds to winning the Grand Prize and Secondary Prize, but also Grand Prize and Secondary Prize winnings are substantially larger than the Instant Gift Pack." -- Yes, I figured that by adding higher valued categories, this would probably be reflected in CL66's list. But keep in mind that your goals (1st or 2nd place prizes) aren't necessarily the goal of others. In addition, without sounding harsh, CL66's list, CL66's rules for his list. And as he mentioned, he does present the information to do the above calculation in his numerous lists. The information for each person's goal won't necessarily be listed.
DeleteI'm glad you did a calculation to prove your point with respect to those two games and the two top prizes. All I wanted to point out was that there isn't a list to satisfy everyone's differing objectives.
Perhaps you or Doug might consider adding such a calculation (1st & 2nd prize range & odds). It would be helpful for those with similar goals on this board.
TmF
@Anon: Keep in mind that this doesn't mean I disagree with you. I think you did a great job of presenting your argument and backing it up with the math.
DeleteThis is similar to when the argument was made that instead of fixed number categories for the lower prizes multiples should be used. Simply put, a $25 win on a $3 games isn't the same as a $25 win on a $10 game. CL66 eventually changed his list to use multiples for these categories.
I also agree with Doug that I would probably not switch from multiples categories to fixed amount categories and that I would not necessarily sum them up in a linear fashion. But that's all I can do about it short of producing my own list. I have to respect the choices made by those who put out their lists, even if I don't entirely agree with them. That's the only way to encourage the sharing of information and ideas. Other than that, all that can be done is to put out our ideas and math and see if it gets 'adopted'.
TmF
Wild and Spectacular loss a GP each, the odds for GP now should be around or lower than Gift.
ReplyDeletei have gone thru a dozen spectaculars by a now and i won just 3 times 35 bucks total for me this friggin game sucks! 10 bucks gone in like 20 seconds hurts man im gonna try this gift pack cus i alwaya wanna win a grand prize but like everytime i try that i did just mostly losers
ReplyDeleteLMAO. I love how this anonymous above is pretending to me....the 'real anonymous.' First off, your grammar is terrible and this is a dead giveaway. Also, I play Extreme mostly, and not Spectacular/Gift Pack.
DeleteIt's nice to know that I already have a stalker on this blog.
Hey now, I've played 27 Spectaculars now and won back $115. The game does friggin suck, but they all do don't they? Won't stop me from playing more though.
DeleteAnonymous,
ReplyDeleteThe web site today indicates 3 GP left for Spectacular and all 6 for Gift Pack. On that basis, neither looks like a good choice at the moment.
Doug
It's been... interesting.
ReplyDeleteWell, here are the results of the recent family meeting where I supposedly got more "say".
1. A new car got voted down until "Tommy can demonstrate responsible driving." I get the feeling that this is a delay tactic. I probably won't see a new car even if I manage to hit fewer non-moving objects. I've always considered these to be non-reportable, correctable "events". Sadly, my parents and the police believe otherwise.
2. PS-4 got voted down.
3. Wonderland got voted through. Yes!!
4. I get to hear "Welcome to Mandarin!" more often. Yeah!
5. Some of my chores were passed down but I ended with some of my older 'baby' brother's chores. I'll call this neutral.
All in all, it's been interesting. When I was first asked for advice, I, and forgive me for saying this, thought instant games were an old folks' pastime. But, it turned out there were some things to be learned. Some interesting math to examine. Some interesting aspects of game design (art, colour, theme, game licensing, etc.) too.
So, yeah, the above are going to be paid for from the scratch card budget.
But I will drop in occasionally just to observe how everyone's doing. I'm sure other Mathheads will pop up with new and fascinating ideas and calculations.
I want to thank Doug for this board, and Darth (comments & pack/results) and CL66 (math & eye-opening wins & news) and all those who commented and contributed, Vic, Jay, Jaydee, wow, so many. Lloyd, don't forget to machine check every ticket! Even Anonymous, well, you'll have to figure out amongst yourselves which one!
Good luck and good karma to all.
TmF
P.S. And don't forget, life is 99.9999% luck. The other half is a strong grasp of mathematics!
Sorry to see you go, Tommy. I enjoyed your posts. Keep practicing those driving skills. And I agree with your luck/math formula.
ReplyDeleteHere's how you lost it
ReplyDeleteI sent you an email a few days ago about the new 'lotto guru' that is making more winners then you've ever seen in your life:
>>> Check It Here Before It's Gone Forever <<<
Many people took advantage, many people haven't used it...
That was a big mistake because 324 new people have gotten it.. and started to change their life.
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