Sunday 24 November 2013

Prestige Maintains Its Secrets

Prestige is in a holding pattern as its sales are languishing. The result is that it remains the top pick. A meager 3% of its float has been sold since late October. As you would expect, low sales equals few Grand Prizes being revealed. Eleven of the twelve Grand Prizes remain to be claimed and a little more than two thirds of the tickets remain to be sold. This is an Inter-provincial Lottery Corporation game which means that I'm not sure how long they will continue to pursue an unpopular game. Prestige is not alone as $200 Million and Classic White are also slow sellers. Maybe the buying public has a significant resistance to spending $10 on a scratch and win ticket. Next week I'll prepare a chart for the active games indicating how many tickets each game has sold over the past month. But for now, Prestige remains the top pick.

$100 MILLION$ PRESTIGE


Top Rated Games


  1. Prestige (67%)
  2. Money Multiplier (36%)
  3. Fast 200s (27%)
  4. $200 Million (59%)
  5. Classic White (11%)


Games to Avoid


  1. Cash for Life 1162 (30%)
  2. Cashingo (18%)
  3. Keno 1410 (18%)
  4. Horse Shoes (12%)
  5. Crossword 3203 (11%)


If you're buying $3 games, take care! All of the above games are devoid of Grand Prizes and four of them are $3 games.

I'm sad to see Cashingo fall "below the line". It was a popular game and rated highly but its last Grand Prize was revealed this week making it the newest of the lame duck games.


$1 - $2 Game Update

Apart from Fast 200's, which is a game with many small Grand Prizes, Wild 8's is the best choice.

$3 Games

Frogger is the top choice here but be careful - there is only one Grand Prize left to be claimed.

$4 - $5 Games

Money Multiplier is a very good choice and it is flying under the radar. If you don't want to shell out $10 or $20 for a ticket, this is the choice.

$10 - $20 Games

Prestige is rated to be so much better than the other three games that I can't justify steering you elsewhere.


Comings and Goings

I was surprised to see a new game this week after the roll-out of the Christmas games. Fat Cat is a $2 game that has potential. Almost 5% of the revenue is returned to players who win $100 or more. That is second only to Fast 200s in the $1-$2 game category.

Personal Play

Four Prestige tickets began with a bang as the first one was worth $50! The remaining three were all losers. My year to date return on investment is now 74% and I have cashed on 38% of tickets this year.

Thanks to readers who posted messages this past week. I always enjoy hearing what you have to say and I'm sure that is also true for other readers.


Lotto Max


Here is my little essay on Lotto Max. Instant Game players are on one end of the spectrum - Lotto Max players are on the other end.

My office has the habit of creating a lottery pool every time the Lotto Max reaches $50 million. Everyone contributes $5 to the cause. I suspect that the main reason most people play is the fear that the others will win. The organizer does a great job of collecting the money, having people sign the group sheet, and providing everyone with the numbers in advance of the draw.

For the last big draw, there were 36 participants. With three lines per play, we had 168 lines in play. The results --- four free tickets! Based on the published odds, we should have reasonably expected to have won $20 once and picked up 7 free tickets. We had one chance in 80 to get five numbers right. Had we been so lucky we would have won $130 for our $180 investment. One of our free tickets won another free ticket to Friday’s draw so it required one additional week to wipe us out.

The bottom line is that games like Lotto Max are essentially winner take all propositions. The Interprovincial Lottery Corporation takes $.52 out of every $1.00 spent for its share of the pie. Once the free plays and $20 prizes are deducted from the $.48 that the lottery chaps put into play, 87% goes to the jackpot winner. In other words, the winner of Lotto Max wins over 40% of all the money spent on tickets. Compare that to Instant Games where the lottery gods take about one third of the money and the Grand Prize winners generally split, depending upon the number of grand prize winners, less than 10% of the revenue generated by the game.

One other minor complaint that I have about Lotto Max is that when the pot exceeds $50 million, the lottery corporation offers a series of single line winning numbers, each one worth $1 million. It is extremely difficult to verify 168 lines of seven numbers against a series of 20 - $1 million lines of numbers. The result is that people are left checking their tickets at machines to see if they won. I don’t like that – I want to know that my ticket is a winner (or a loser) before I check it.

Lotto Max has a large audience of people taking their fling at a monstrous prize. As for me, I prefer scratching my tickets and getting maximum action for my dollar. I'm prepared to pay the cost of not being able to win a monster prize. It’s a matter of preference. 

Hats off to the Saskatchewan Rough Riders. They were deserving winners.

Doug






5 comments:

  1. As a general rule I only play lotto max and lotto 649 in groups and I play scratch tickets on my own, its really hard to ignore $50 million especially when you are buying gas or going to the grocery store and the machine is just right there.

    To your question about checking max million tickets I usually wait for loto quebec to publish the results (they tell you which province won the max million if it is won and then focus on that one won in Ontario it has never been more than 2 since I started actively checking)

    Just an fyi, the 48% payoff rate mentioned for lotto max does not include free plays as per here http://lotoquebec.com/loteries/nav/en/draw-games/lotto-max I still agree with your points though

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  2. I'm reminded of a story one of my math teachers told at university long ago. He was very smart and one weekend he decided he was going to figure out how to beat the lottery. After working through the math he came up with 2 rules:

    1) You can't win if you don't play
    2) Only buy 1 ticket because buying 10 or 100 tickets makes an insignificant change in probability

    Lotto Max is a giant long-shot. I mean huge. Ever read The Hitchhikers Guide and Douglas Adams explains how big space is? It's like that. It's hard to comprehend the chances of winning.

    1 in 85,900,584. OLG tries to make it seem better by giving 3 numbers and diving by 3 but it's still nearly 86 million to one your numbers will come up. Having 1 row or 3 rows or 300 rows is essentially mathematically equal when looking at it from probabilities.

    But how does someone understand how big that is? Picture a Post-It note, those little yellow stickies. Now imagine a stack of them. Now imagine a stack 9 km long. One of those Post-It's is the winning ticket. Walk along 9 km and pick one out. Now pick 3, pick 100. It starts to be clear just how small your chance of picking the correct note is.

    Yes, people do win after millions of people choose their Post-It. So I'm not saying never play but understand buying more tickets changes nothing.

    By the way, 6/49 is only about 1.5 km tall and Lottario 0.86 km.

    The nice thing about scratch tickets is the stack gets smaller and smaller as tickets are sold. That's why it's important to play the best games.

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  3. Jay,
    Thanks for a very insightful post. A very helpful analogy.
    Doug

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  4. Love the posts! Unfortunately I keep having bad luck when I play the recommended games! I agree with you wholeheartedly -- dreaming of a lottery win is great, but when I get a Super Bingo, it's a nice 5-10 min of scratching and getting a little excited, and maybe covering lunch for that day (with the dream of covering a new boat in the back of my mind). It just seems a little more engaging and fun. It is lottery and GAMING after all. Cheers!

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