Fruit Explosion #1803 Stays on Top - Get em Quick

Fruit Explosion remains the top selection with one of its three Grand Prizes of $75,000 left to claim, two of its three second prizes of $25,000 and one of its three third prizes of $10,000. Your chances to win the top prize are 260,000:1 which is the best of any game with the exception of Wild 10's and its plentiful but small Grand Prizes. Your chances to win any prize are 1:3.27 and your chances to win any prize greater than the cost of the ticket are 1:5.87. Altogether, a good choice. Now the bad news - a blog commentator has informed us that retailers have been instructed not to open any new packages for the game. That means that you will have to be on the lookout for the game.

Only an estimated 10% of the float remains and it looks like once again we may not get the chance to get the last remaining prize. Readers have been quite vocal about this concern in the comments section, and I agree with what they have been saying. For anyone who is traveling the 401, I stopped in at several Canadian Tire gas bars along the way and they all seemed to have Fruit Explosions left. I picked a few up and would have purchased more had I known about the pending retirement of the game.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Fruit Explosion #1803- Get em while you can.
2. $3 Cashingo #1801 - One Grand Prize and one Second Prize left and only 13% of the float. 
3. $4 Bonus Cash For Life #1168 - All five Grand Prizes left after 44% of float sold Odds are 1.1 million:1 to win $675,000 for a $4 ticket. Not bad. 
4. $3 Crossword #3205 - The secondary prizes have been hollowed out. If you don't get the remaining Grand Prize, the next best prize is $100.
5. $1 Cash Cow #1805 - Three of the Five Grand Prizes of $10,000 remain and 31% of the float. Second prize is only $200.

Games to Avoid

1. Cross Tripler #1766 - All of the top three prize levels are gone. The most you can win is $300. Cancel this game OLG!
2. Win Take All #1800 - All seven Grand Prizes are gone. Stay away.
3. Crazy 8's #1765 - Blog commentators love to hate this game. The numbers agree with them.
4. More Lucky Lines #1794 - Launched last week and sinks to the bottom. Two of its three Grand Prizes were claimed in the first week. Something is rotten in the state of Denmark.
5. Bingo #3015 - Lots of tickets - few good prizes. How about 1 chance in 1.9 million to win $50k for your $3 investment. Horrible. 

$1 - $2 Game Update

Either Cash Cow or Royal 7's are good choices.

$3 Game Update

Avoid Bingo, More Lucky Lines, and Scrabble.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Avoid Cross Tripler #1791, Win Take All, and Jacks are Wild.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Fortune is the best play but any game is playable.

Comings and Goings

Hello new More Lucky Lines! We still had the bitter taste of the old version of the game in our mouths when the brain trust at OLG headquarters rolled out the new version. After the old version went to its grave with all of its Grand Prizes intact, this version coughed up two of its Grand Prizes in its first week. Come on! I guess the good news is that this game is unlikely to ever become a recommended play.

For the record, here is the prize distribution:

Grand Prizes - 2.3% of revenue (5th of 9 in Group)
Other Top Prizes - 2.6% of revenue (4th of 9 in Group)
Smaller Prizes - 46.5% of revenue (6th of 9 in Group)
Win your $3 back - 13.5% of revenue (2nd highest of nine in Group and that is not a good thing)

Bottom Line: at present, your chances of winning $75,000 for your $3 investment are one in 2.9 million the worst of any game currently for sale.

Personal Play

I have been taking a beating. Two Bonus CFLs were worth nothing. I am, at present, 1 for 14 and a return of $4 on this game. Two Black Pearls bought just to be different returned nothing and six Fruit Explosions returned nothing. That's right - shut out! My Year To Date return is now 60%. The bloom is off the rose.

 Meanderings

I thank all the posters for keeping us up to date on game cancellations, reporting on phone conversations at the OLG call center, and on individual results. I enjoy reading them.

I would like to clarify one point with readers: OLG policy is to cancel games that are devoid of Grand Prizes only if the Grand Prize is less than $100,000. Why? They have learned from surveying their players that those who buy $1 - $3 tickets care not if there are any prizes left whatsoever. Only people spending $5 and more care about such trivial matters. Do you agree?

I wrote to the OLG four years ago and asked them to state their criteria to cancel a game. Here is what I was told, in writing, by their Acting CEO in October 2010:

1. Inventory for a game is completely sold out.
2. All top prizes are claimed for games with $100,000 or greater top prize.
3. Average weekly sales reflect significantly decreased customer demand and a new replacement game is scheduled to be launched or has launched.
4. Quality issue with game in market.
5. Security issue with game in market. 

It strikes me that reasons 1,2,4,5 are all objective and 3 is subjective and can justify almost any decision on their behalf. Average weekly sales are a function of many factors other than popularity with the public. How about simply canceling print runs and not sending out additional tickets to retailers. That would certainly create the appearance of "decreased customer demand".

For anyone who wishes to see my original letter and the OLG response, drop me a line and I will send you a link to the documents.

I hope you all had an enjoyable Thanksgiving.


Doug
  

Scrabble Loses Its Last Grand Prize - Fruit Explosion #1803 New Top Choice

I was on my way home from playing tennis this past week when I stopped off at a store I never frequent to pick up some milk. And what to my wondering eyes did appear but six shiny Scrabble tickets. I scooped them up, charged home, only to find that they contained one lonely winner of $5. To make matters worse, the final Grand Prize was claimed the next day at a store a mere two kilometers from where I live. I guess I need to find new tennis courts to play on.

The loss of Scrabble brings Fruit Explosion to the top of the rankings. This is a game with one Grand Prize left to claim plus some outstanding secondary prizes. Only 12% of the float remains to be claimed (+/- 2%) , which means that they are likely hard to find. Your chance to find that last ticket is 310,000:1. It pays to ask the retailer before you buy if that prize remains outstanding. Your chances to win any prize in this game is 1 in every 3.62 tickets and to win a prize greater than the $3 cost of the ticket are 1 in every 6.81 tickets. These are average. The one good thing about the game is that it is relatively rich in prizes of $100 or more but less than the Grand Prize. The game offers 4.4% of total revenue in this area and that is best for any $3 game and fourth overall trailing only Cadillac Riches, Win Take All, and Jacks Are Wild.

    

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Fruit Explosion #1803 - Only 12% of float left. Tickets may be scarce.
2. $3 Cashingo #1801 - Good second choice; only 14% of float left. 
3. $4 Bonus CFL #1168 - People having worse luck with this game than expected - including me!
4. $10 Fortune #1779 - Unusually low number of prizes worth the cost of the ticket. 
5. $3 Crossword #3205 - Quirky result. I would recommend avoiding this game. 

Games to Avoid

1. $3 Scrabble #1799 - Penthouse to outhouse. Only two prizes of more than $300 left. 
2. $2 Crazy 8's #1765 - Not terrible but all six Grand Prizes are gone. Avoid. 
3. $5 Win Take All #1800 - This game should be retired but 20% of float remains. Watching.
4. $5 Jacks Are Wild #1787 - Only one of seven Grand Prizes remain and 40% of float. 
5. $1 Lucky Lines #1770 - Stinky game but what can one expect for a $1 game?

$1 - $2 Game Update

Cash Cow and Royal 7's are each reasonable choices.

$3 Game Update

Three of the top five games are in this group. Not long ago there were none. The only poor choice is Scrabble.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Either Cash For Life is a reasonable choice but posters have reported awful results for these games. I have experienced poor results as well. Next best is Black Pearls.

$10 - $20 Game Update

You can play any of the games.

Comings and Goings

Prestige was retired this past week. This was an Inter-provincial game that had been on sale for fourteen months. That is a long time for a scratch game. They still had 23% of the float left to sell and 3 of the 12 Grand Prizes of $1 million left to be revealed. Can't find fault with the decision but it shows again how $10 games are a little rich for most players.

Cash In #1807 was launched this week. It is a fairly typical $5 game. Your chance to win a prize is 1 in every 4.13 tickets (7th of 8 in group) and 1 in every 7.42 to win more than $5 (5th of 8 in group). The game does offer a good array of prizes from $100 up, as you would expect with the numbers cited in the previous sentence. One problem is that one of the seven Grand Prizes has already been claimed. We'll have to wait to see if this game works its way onto my radar.

Prize Breakdown: 10.7% To Winners of Cost of Ticket; 47.9% to winners of more than cost of ticket and less than $100; 2.8% to winners of $100 and less than Grand Prize; 5.4% to Grand Prize winners.

Personal Play

Eight Bonus Cash For Life's contained one winner of $4 and six Scrabble's contained one winner of $5. My poor results have reduced my YTD return to 63% per dollar "invested". Time to get something going.

In Conclusion

To the poster who inquired about how the remaining float size is calculated, the formula is:

Initial Float (from game sheet on OLG site) X (Total Top Prizes Remaining Listed on Web Site/Total Top Prizes at outset of game as listed on the OLG Web Site).

You must remember that because we are estimating based upon a sample, the sample size contains a margin of error. A game with 10,000 listed top prizes will have a margin of error of +/- 1%, 19 times in 20. A game with 125 listed prizes would have a margin of error of +/- 8%, 19 times in 20.

I have put into use a new evaluation formula beginning this week. The formula is the product of three factors:

1. A weighted sum of prizes: 1 x % of revenue paid to tickets that win the cost of ticket, plus
                                               2 x % of revenue paid to tickets of more than cost and <$100, plus
                                               3 x % of revenue paid to tickets of >$100 and <Grand Prize, plus
                                               4 x % of revenue paid to Grand Prize winners.

This formula yields more weight to games that award more money to bigger prizes. The game with the top number according to this factor is Wild 10's with 153.3. The lowest is Lucky Lines at 109.8.

2. The ratio of percentage of Grand Prizes left divided by Total Top prizes listed. The greater the imbalance, the better for the formula. At present, the top rated game is Fruit Explosion at 2.76. One of three Grand Prizes remain and 218 of 1804 Top Prizes remain.

3. The inversion of the odds to win a prize greater than the cost of the ticket. The more likely, the better. The best game in play according to this factor is Extraordinary with 1 ticket in every 4.30 worth more than the cost of the ticket. The worst is Win Take All with one winner in every 8.63 tickets.

I multiply each factor together to get the rating. Fruit Explosion, the top rated game is rated at:

127.1 * 2.76 * (1/6.81) = 51.4


That's enough math - I'm even boring myself writing about it.

Enjoy the good weather - scratch your tickets outside.

Doug

Scrabble #1799 Is The Top Pick - If You Can Find Any

Back to base after a visit to the Somme Battlefields of WW1 and being stranded in Charlotte, North Carolina on the way home. Lovely town. Three Grand Prizes were claimed in Bingo over the past two weeks and 18 in the "democratic" Wild 10's game. Scrabble #1799 is the top pick but only 10% (340,000 tickets) remain and only 1 Grand Prize. The game could turn into a dud any day so be alert.

Your odds of winning the $75,000 Grand Prize are 340,000:1 which is the best of any game for sale with the exception of Wild 10's. In that game you trade off a low Grand Prize of $10,000 against 69 unclaimed Grand Prizes.  Scrabble returns $.073 of every dollar left to be spent to that one Grand Prize. This is more than even two of the $10 - $20 games and first among $3 games.

You are likely to face the common problem of scarcity with only 10% of the float left to be sold. Will the OLG order up that final print run or not? An initial tour around my neighborhood was fruitless.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Scrabble #1799 - 10% of float left to sell +/- 3%
2. $4 Bonus Cash for Life #1168 - 63%, +/- 3%
3. $3 Fruit Explosion #1803 - 14%, +/- 3%
4. $10 Prestige #1741 - 23%, +/- 7%
5. $10 Fortune #1779 - 94%, +/- 8%

Games to Avoid

1. $5 Win Take All - All Grand Prizes claimed, still 20% of float left to sell. Beware!
2. $2 Crazy 8's - All Grand Prizes claimed, 33% of float left! 
3. $5 Jacks are Wild - Only 1 of Seven Grand Prizes left and 45% of the float left to sell. 
4. $1 Lucky Lines - Terrible game from many points of view. Avoid!
5. $3 Bingo - the game has been hollowed out. One chance in 1.2 million to win $75,000.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Cash Cow and Royal Seven's are each much preferable to the other two.

$3 Game Update

Two of the top five games are in this group. Stick to them. Next in line is Cashingo.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Bonus Cash For Life is the strongest play in this area.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Avoid Cadillac and Extraordinary.

Comings and Goings

Classic Gold, Sapphire 7's and Blazing 7's were all retired over the past two weeks. Classic Gold was an Inter-Provincial game that was kept on the shelves too long with no Grand Prizes. Sapphire 7's caused great irritation to More Lucky Line players as its tickets were always available despite it being devoid of Grand Prizes. Blazing 7's had reached the end of its life with one prize outstanding.

No new games were added although readers have been doing their homework and we know that new ones are slated for introduction including a new More Lucky Lines game. The gall of them!

Personal Play

Last post I narrowly escaped being shut out. It proved to be a prelude to this week. Two Bonus Cash for Lifes and two Wild 10's returned nothing. My ROI for the year dips to 65% and my cash rate sits at 33%.

To Conclude

I read with interest the comments related to how Texas runs its Instant Game process. Lots to be learned there. I bought a two pound ticket in London last week and will be taking a look at how the British handle their Instant Games.

I also intend to alter my formula for game evaluation this week. The current formula yields a rating based upon the product of: the ratio of revenue going to Grand Prize winners at the introduction of the game versus now, the chances of cashing for a prize greater than the cost of a ticket, and the overall percentage of revenue returned to the player. I intend to introduce a factor that will add the percentage of revenue going to winners of more than the cost of the ticket but less than $100 and twice the percentage of revenue of winners of $100 and more.

Devising the formula is tricky as it involves a value judgement. Instant Game players enjoy playing the games. If our only concern was the Grand Prize then we would all be playing Lotto Max. That said, we cannot disregard the Grand Prizes as it makes no sense for us to play games for which all the Grand Prizes have been claimed. Finding that middle ground is the challenge and I'm happy to receive your input as to what is important to you as a player.

The current Bonus Cash for Life game is a case in point. I rate it highly as the game returns 69.89% of all revenue to players. This is a number that you expect to see for $10 games, not a $4 game. That's the "bonus", I imagine. Your chance to cash any ticket is 1 in 3.99 which is 6th of 7 in the group. Your chance to cash for more than the $4 cost of the ticket is 1 in 6.74 which is 3rd of 7 in the group. The 5 Grand Prizes of  $675,000 is a big plus. That represents $3,375,000 of winnings over 6.2 million $4 tickets or $.136 per ticket. Wild 10's, on the other hand, has 69 remaining Grand Prizes of $10,000 each. Yes, your chances of winning are less than 1 in 10,000 but the total winnings of those 69 winners is only $690,000 for your $10 investment, or $.107 per ticket sold. With 150 Grand Prizes in Wild 10's, the number of prizes claimed is much more likely to track overall ticket sales. This is not the case when there are only 5 Grand Prize winners. In that game, a third of the tickets have been sold and all 5 Grand Prizes remain outstanding. Of course, as Pete Townsend told us, "We Wont Be Fooled Again."

Evaluating these two very different games is difficult. I can't say that I am entirely happy with my current method and that's why I intend to tweak it slightly. I'm looking forward to seeing where that leads me.

It's good to be home. Look for the blog to be updated weekly from now on.


Doug

Money Multiplier Retired - Bonus Cash for Life #1168 Takes Over Top Spot

Well, two very highly rated games were retired by the evil OLG in back to back weeks. This past week it was Money Multiplier. Posters indicated that the "do not open new packages" order went out from OLG Headquarters to sellers on 08 August 2014. Ten percent of the ticket float was left to sell which included two of the original six $100,000 Grand Prizes. Using the same math that I detailed for More Lucky Lines, the OLG effectively increased its bottom line profit for the game by 7% by pulling the plug on the game. Had they decided to sell every last ticket they would have made an additional $100,000 than what they ended up making but that additional amount would have evaporated upon the revealing of the next Grand Prize and they would have been $100,000 worse off if both had been revealed. And we know that it is impossible for them to sell every last ticket. For all of 2014, there has not been a single game that was retired without at least 200,000 tickets left to sell. Money Multiplier was in line to run its course but the problem of those outstanding Grand Prizes remains. A policy solution is needed to resolve the problem. Feel free to post your suggestions to the reader comment section of this entry.

The new top game is Bonus Cash For Life #1168 - not to be confused with Cash For Life #1161. There has been some discussion about these two games and which is the better play. This requires some examination. Bonus CFL has five Grand Prizes from a float of just under 10 million tickets. Regular CFL has three from just over 8 million tickets. Bonus CFL has a house take of 30.1% and regular CFL has a house take of 34.6%. As of today, all five Bonus CFL prizes remain outstanding. Your chance to win one is 1 in 1.4 million. Regular CFL has one of its three prizes left. Your chance to win it is one in 2.4 million. Each game, at its outset, was a little more top heavy than most games. Bonus CFL claws that back in the small prize area with only 46.3% of total revenue being paid out to winners of prizes less than $100 and more than $4. For Regular CFL, that number is 49.0%. Regular CFL has a cash rate for prizes greater than the cost of the ticket of one in every 5.95 tickets. This is best in class. For Bonus CFL, the rate is one in every 6.74 tickets. On even footing, Regular CFL would come out ahead, but the present situation tilts the balance in favour of Bonus CFL. Thirty percent of the float has been sold and all five Grand Prizes remain outstanding.

Top Rated Games

1. $4 Bonus Cash For Life #1168 - 70% of float remains, +/- 3%
2. $10 Prestige #1741 - 22% of float remains, +/- 7%; game has been on sale for over a year. 
3. $10 Wild 10's #1785 - 57% of float remains +/- 2%; maximum prize is $10k
4. $10 Fortune #1779 - 98% of float remains +/- 8%; new Inter-provincial game
5. $3 Scrabble #1799 - 18% of game remains +/- 3%; tickets likely scarce

Games to Avoid

1. $10 Classic Gold - No grand prizes left for two weeks now. Come on IPL(inter prov)!
2. $5 Sapphire 7's - No grand prizes nor second prizes left to claim. 
3. $5 Jacks are Wild - Lost three grand prizes since the last update. Ouch!
4. $1 Lucky Lines - Lousy game, name invokes bad memories.
5. $2 Crazy 8's - Only one of five initial grand prizes left.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Avoid the two games identified above. The other three are reasonable choices.

$3 Game Update

If you don't like Scrabble, or can't find any, Cashingo is the next best in this category.

$4 - $5 Game Update

The two CFL games are the best of the lot.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Stick to the three games recommended above.

Personal Play

Two Bonus Cash For Life and two Wild 10's were looking like a wipe out until a $15 prize was discovered at the point of checking the tickets. I cannot over-emphasize that point. My overall cash rate remains at 33% and my overall ROI sits at 67%.

Meanderings

I have read all of the blog comments. I am of a view that the OLG needs to review its practices when it comes to retiring games. The ticket buying public is not always being treated fairly. Any change will have to come from outside pressure. I'm not sure what the best approach is. Thinking.....

The OLG was in the news this week with this announcement: http://media.olg.ca/?p=nmm_news_detail&i=31d4398b-8dc5-4e50-993c-cb32360372a8 . The OLG is an example of an organization that gets its story line approved then keeps repeating it regardless of evidence to the contrary. The Auditor General for Ontario issued a report (http://www.auditor.on.ca/en/default.htm) that basically stated that all of the OLG projections are either weak or defy reasonableness yet the OLG sticks by its projections as to abandon them leaves them in nowhere land.

Massachusetts is revoking a previously granted casino license as they now are of a view that the metrics provided by the bidders were bogus. Regardless, the OLG sticks to its story line. Their incessant line about building hospitals with the revenue they generate is nothing more that an attempt to earn acceptance by the greater public for revenue generated from gambling. Why does the LCBO not make the same claim? Revenue is revenue. Of course, the OLG considers revenue from the LCBO to be "tax revenue" whereas gambling revenue is not. Get real!

 They also love to claim that $1 billion of investment is required in its degrading infrastructure and that the people of Ontario can't afford to make that kind of investment. Really? Well, once their successful bidder is identified (media speculates either Bell or Rogers - what else is new), do you think that they will gift $1 billion to the people of Ontario? Of course not! They will invest then take it back, plus an appropriate return on investment, from gaming revenues. So how is the OLG going to increase the money it returns to the people of Ontario? By increasing gaming revenues such that a smaller piece of a bigger pie will represent more money than what they earn today. Plus, they get out of the gaming business and instead "manage" it. The Auditor General says that there is no indication that this is going to happen. And what if it doesn't? It will be too late to do anything I'm afraid.

Off  to visit a friend in London. Next update in two weeks.

Doug

Lucky Lines Retired - Money Multiplier #1769 Takes Over Top Spot

Folks who have been reading this blog, and the comments to the blog, are aware of what transpired with More Lucky Lines. This is not a unique situation. Readers have called the OLG only to receive their circular logic that leads the OLG to an indefensible position. The bottom line is that they ran a game for which they sold 2.5 million tickets and then retired the game before a single Grand Prize was claimed. I don't care what the explanation is - it's wrong in principle. I'll be taking further action on this one.

I'm amazed that some posters are continuing to find More Lucky Lines tickets here and there. Good luck to them. The new top rated game is also in a scarcity situation with only 10%, +/- 2% of the tickets left to be sold. In raw terms, there are only an estimated 122,000 tickets out there and that is a mere 1/4 of the tickets that were left to sell for More Lucky Lines yet the OLG ...... I know - settle down Doug.

Two of the six original prizes of $100,000 remain to be claimed. The game is not great in terms of cashing for any prize but it is good for cashing a prize greater than the cost of the ticket. It has the best chance of cashing a middle prize (greater than $100) of any game with the exception of the $10 Cadillac game. I've been looking for tickets to the game without success. I hope that your luck is better.

Top Rated Games

1. $5 Money Multiplier #1769 - 10% of float left +/- 2%
2. $10 Prestige #1741 - 23% +/- 7%
3. $4 Bonus CFL #1168 - 74% +/- 3%
4. $10 Wild 10's #1785 - 64% +/- 2%
5. $10 Fortune #1779 - 100% +/- 8%

Games to Avoid

1. $10 Classic Gold - all top prizes claimed. Interprovincial game.
2. $5 Sapphire 7's - OLG has been milking this one while retiring Lucky Lines. Grrrr.
3. $1 Lucky Lines - half the Grand Prizes claimed in first third of tickets sold.
4. $3 Crossword - 1 chance in 2.3 million to win $50,000. Sucks.
5. $2 Crazy 8's - 1 Grand Prize left and 40% of float to sell.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Blazing 7's is the best play in this area.

$3 Game Update

Moving on from More Lucky Lines, Scrabble #1799 is the top rated game.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Stick to the two games in the Top Rated Game area.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Avoid Classic Gold. I don't like Cadillac either although CL66 still has a hankering for it.

Comings and Goings

Labour Day provided the OLG with a good opportunity to clean up the inventory of games. Six games were retired over the past two weeks including the $10 Turbo Cash game that was devoid of Grand Prizes. The jumbo Quest For Gold Crossword was mercifully put to bed along with Bingo, Red Hot 50's, Bingo Express, and yes, More Lucky Lines.

Two new games were introduced: the inter-provincial $100 Million Fortune and the $3 Horseshoes. Horseshoes is an average looking $3 game. It has a normal prize distribution and begins its life as the third rated $3 game of the 8 currently for sale. $10 Games should start out strong and Fortune is no exception. It is strong on the Grand Prize end with 12 - $1,000,000 prizes available and it is also good in the prizes of less than $100. The one thing I don't like about the game is the low number of reported prizes. The Inter-provincial games like to report down to the $1000 level and not the $100 level that the OLG does on its games. This means that only 125 prizes are reported against and that means that our estimates for remaining float size will be no closer than +/- 8%. Here is the prize breakdown for both games:

Horseshoes
2.6% of revenue paid to Grand Prize winners.
1.7% to winners of less than the Grand Prize and at least $100
47.7% to winners of less than $100 and more than $3
12.9% to winners of $3
35% to the OLG etc

Fortune
8.0% to Grand Prize winners
2.0% to winners of less than Grand Prize and at least $100
50.2% to winners of less than $100 and more than $10
9.5% to winners of $10
30.3% to the IPL

Personal Play

3 - Wild 10's tickets contained 1 winner of $20.

Meanderings

My trip to New York state introduced me to this menacing looking machine:

They dispense Scratch and Win tickets in the main area and you can purchase Lotto type games with the buttons in the first row. I suspect that the machines have an operating cost less than the 8% that sellers receive from the OLG. I wonder why they were not part of the OLG Modernization Plan? I guess that the association of variety store retailers has more clout than the Horse Racing industry that the OLG was happy to eviscerate. Thank goodness that Premier Wynne has mandated the OLG to ensure that the health of horse racing in Ontario is part of its Modernization Plan. The machine pictured is located at the Saratoga Race Track. Lets plop one down inside Woodbine and see what happens.


Best to all.

Doug

More Lucky Lines Remains the Champ - For What Its Worth

I was surprised to get back from vacation to see that More Lucky Lines was still for sale. I called the OLG to confirm the situation and they told me that it is indeed the case.  I can't be bothered to provide any details on the game's status as there is little chance that anyone will be able to find a ticket.

The OLG retires games in two ways. First, they can instruct sellers to return all tickets, including any in trays for sale. This would happen if there was a defect found in the game or fraud was suspected. The second way is to inform sellers that they are no longer permitted to activate any new packages but can continue to sell tickets that were activated previously. This would take place if the game was being retired for reasons of low sales, time on market, or a new version of the game coming on-line. In the case of More Lucky Lines, sellers were instructed on 01 August not to activate any new packages. What are the chances that you'll be able to find loose tickets for sale almost three weeks later? Well, I'm not going to spend any time finding out. If you run across them, scoop them up.


 

Top Rated Games

1. $3 More Lucky Lines - (16% of float left +/- 3%) 
2. $5 Money Multiplier - (11%, +/- 2%)
3. $10 Prestige (25%, +/- 7%)
4. $1 Red Hot 50s (15%, +/- 1%)
5. $10 Wild 10s (81%, +/- 2%)

Games to Avoid

1. $10 Turbo Cash - Top three prizes all claimed. OLG has retired the game. 
2. $5 Sapphire 7's - Top two prize levels claimed.
3. $2 Crazy 8's - 4 of 5 top prizes claimed and 44% of float remains
4. $3 Fruit Explosion - 2 of 3 top prizes claimed in first 34% of the float
5. $3 Crossword 3206 - 1 chance in 2 million to win $50,000. Not encouraging. 

$1 - $2 Game Update

Red Hot 50s is the best choice but I don't like the $50 Grand Prize. Next best is $1 Bingo Express but best to look elsewhere.

$3 Game Update

Putting the top game aside, Scrabble 1799 is the best choice.

$4 - $5 Game Update

If you can find any Money Multiplier tickets, give them a try.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Classic Gold and Cadillac (poster CL66 likes this game) are poor choices. All others are playable, assuming that Turbo Cash is no longer available.

Comings and Goings

The horrible Tetris game was retired after the OLG had milked it for all it was worth. Shame on them for that. 20X Lucky was also retired with one Grand Prize remaining and 12% of the float.

Five new games have come on line since the last update. Fruit Explosion #1803 has unfortunately lost 2 of its three Grand Prizes early on in the history of the game. One to avoid. Instant Crossword #3206 is one of those jumbo games with over 20 million tickets issued. It is a bread and butter game for the OLG but it sucks for players. There are lots of small prizes but less than 1 percent of the game's revenue is returned to Grand Prize winners. Too low. Jacks are Wild #1787 is a well balanced game with potential to improve in the ratings. The one thing I don't like about the game is that there are 7 Grand Prizes and only 2 Second Prizes. Your chance to find a second prize is 1 in 1.4 million but only 1 in 400,000 to win a Grand Prize. Counter intuitive. Cross Tripler #1791 is not as good as its sister version #1766. It's OK but I don't like the 13.6% of game revenue that is returned to players who win their $5 back. That is the highest such number in the $5 group of tickets. Wild 10's #1785 has an imbalance towards the Grand Prize with 10.7% of game revenue going to those winners. There are 150 of them. You pay the price in smaller prizes with only 43.4% of revenue being returned to winners of more than $10 and less than $100. That is second lowest in the group.

Personal Play

One More Lucky Lines ticket was a dud.

More Lucky Lines and Money Multiplier are going to be nigh impossible to find. Prestige is next but I have played them before and am not enthused about returning to that game. I don't like playing $1 games so Red Hot 50s is out. That leaves me with Wild 10s which also happens to be CL66's top game. Let's give it a whirl.

Meanderings

More Lucky Lines is a true enigma. All four of the top prizes and all three of the second prizes remain unclaimed. At the same time, only 3 of the 105 -  $538 prizes remain outstanding and all 12 of the $500 have been claimed. What are the chances that this game could sell 85% of its float and not reveal any Grand Prizes? Less than 1 in a thousand. Outliers do occur and this is surely one for the record books. CL66 mentioned in a post that the floats are printed in tranches. Makes perfect sense. Another poster mentioned that with a house take of 35%, there is no need for any shenanigans by management. I agree. Further, the OLG is a public sector organization which means that it is run by Public Servants. All of this leads to the conclusion that we are just looking at a odd ball situation.

But I am left with the uncomfortable thought that they sold 2.5 million tickets for the game and then decided to retire it before any Grand Prizes were awarded. If I ran a raffle, sold tickets, and decided that there would be no winners, I think that I might get a visit from my local police officer.

So, why did the OLG make this decision and is it in the public interest or the interest of the OLG?  In such instances, the public interest should always come first. Lets look at some of the math:

If the OLG had sold every ticket for the game they would have generated total revenue of $3 x 2,949,000 tickets = $8,849,000. The house take was 35% or $3,097,290. I now make an assumption that the OLG pays a total of 15% of revenue to pay the sellers and the company that prints the tickets. That reduces the profit to $1,769,880. We need to take 84% of that number as that is how much of the float was ultimately sold. The estimated final profit is therefore $1,486,699.

Now lets look at the top seven prizes for the game. Those prizes totaled $245,000. If 84% of those prizes had been won, they would have cashed for $205,800 with $39,200 left outstanding. By retiring the game the OLG became the winners of the $205,800. That decision added a full 12% to the profitability of the game. That stinks and I can't help but think that the decision maker(s) knew exactly what they were doing.

I encourage readers to call the OLG call center and register their dissatisfaction. Poor old Darth deserves no less.

In Unity

Doug

More Lucky Lines #1776 Hits The Stratosphere

Another 75,000 sold of the top rated game and again no winners of either the first or second prizes. I have never seen a game similar to this before. This game could now lose one of its grand prizes and continue to be the top rated game.

How strange is the situation? Consider this: All seven of the Grand and second prizes remain outstanding while out of the original 12 - $500 and 13 - $1000 prizes, only one remains outstanding. What are the chances of that!  The problem now is finding tickets. Based on reader comments, they are becoming scarce. I have had the same problem here in Ottawa.

Your chances to win a grand prize are now 170,000:1. For those who are fed up with the game, I should mention that $5 Money Multiplier #1769 is also a very good choice at the moment. You have a 160,000:1 chance to win $100,000 for a $5 investment.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 More Lucky Lines #1776 (17% of float left +/- 3%)
2. $5 Money Multiplier #1769 (13% of float left +/- 2%)
3. $10 Prestige #1741 (26% of float left +/- 7%)
4. $1 Red Hot 50s #1788 (16% of float left +/- 1%)
5. $4 Bonus Cash For Life #1168 (91% of float left +/- 3%)

Games To Avoid

1. $10 Turbo Cash - no 1st, 2nd or 3rd prizes left. Largest available prize is $225!
2. $3 Tetris - No 1st or 2nd prizes left. 
3. $2 Crazy 8s - lost 2 Grand Prizes last week. 1 chance in 1.5 milion to win $28,888.
4. $1 Lucky Lines - stinker of a game. OLG must be trying to counterbalance top game :-)
5. $5 Win Take All - Only 2 of 7 Grand Prizes left and 45% of the tickets left to sell.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Red Hot 50s is the only game worth playing. You must be content with a $50 Grand Prize, but there are 1,780 of them remaining to be claimed.

$3 Game Update

Apart from the top rated game, Scrabble #1799 is the next best choice.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Apart from the top games and game to avoid, I would avoid Cash For Life #1161. Its 2nd, 3rd, and 4th prizes have all been claimed.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Two Turbo Cash and two Extraordinary Grand Prizes were claimed this past week. Prestige is the best choice.

Comings and Goings

A new Wild 10s game was just released. The game sheet has not yet been posted on the OLG site. This is a game like Red Hot 50s except for the $10 crowd. There are 150 Grand Prizes of $10,000 each. This game was issued last year and it did well in my ratings. Plus, it tends not to either improve or deteriorate due to the large number of Grand Prizes. I suspect that it will be worth a look.

Personal Play

My two week win streak came to an end. Nine More Lucky Line tickets contained 3 winners of $13. I remain ahead of expectations for the game and sit at a 69% ROI for the year. Not bad.

Meanderings

I am off to Saratoga next week then to a cottage for a week. The next update will likely be done on August 17th. Remember to check the web page for outstanding prizes right before you buy. The retailer can provide you with a printout of the prize status. Also remember to always check your tickets before tossing them out. I'll report on Scratch tickets in New York State next time.

There was a lot of activity in the reader comments this past week. CL66 has posted his analysis of the situation along with his recommendations. He rates $10 Cadillac as the top game. He is using a different evaluation system than I do so, if you want a second opinion, take a look at his comments.

I am going to find it interesting to see what the OLG does with Turbo Cash. If they follow their policy, because the Grand Prize for the game is $250,000, the game should be retired now that it is devoid of Grand Prizes. But there remains 40% of the float to sell! On the other hand we have More Lucky Lines with a Grand Prize of less than $100,000, all of its Grand Prizes left, and 17% of its float to sell. Another criteria to retire a game is low ticket sales. It stands to reason that sales will decrease as the number of tickets left to sell decreases. I'd love to be a fly on the wall of the weekly meeting where these sorts of things are discussed. Those folks should know that we're watching them :-)


Best to all.


Doug