$4 Cash for Life #1165 is a Dominant Choice

Another week ticked by without a Grand Prize being revealed in the Cash for Life Family $4 game. Your chances to win either $1000/wk for life or $675,000 is now estimated at 675,000:1 and this with a game that returns 67% of its revenue to players and contains one winner in every 3.54 tickets. Twenty-five cents of every dollar spent on the game is returned to the two winners as of today. This game represents significant value and towers above all other choices at this time. I am playing it exclusively.

 

Top Rated Games

1.       $4 Cash for Life #1165 (19% of float remaining, +/- 3%)

2.       $3 Scrabble #1777 (9%, +/- 3%)

3.       $20 Extraordinaire #1742 (94%, +/- 4%)

4.       $1 Red Hot 50s #1788 (46%, +/- 1%)

5.       $20 200 Million #1740 (43%, +/- 4%)

Games to Avoid

1.       $3 Tetris #1793 (no Grand Prizes remaining)

2.       $3 More Lucky Lines #1775 (no Grand Prizes remaining)

3.       $2 Fat Cat #1729 (no Grand Prizes remaining)

4.       $3 Keno #1412

5.       $3 Crossword #3205

$1 - $2 Game Update

Both Cash for Life games have now been retired. Red Hot 50s is playable but keep in mind that the highest prize you can win is $50. There still are over 5000 of those prizes to be claimed.

$3 Game Update

Scrabble #1777 is the best choice by far in this area.

$4 - $5 Game Update

The game of choice stands alone. Don’t look at another game until one of its two Grand Prizes is claimed.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Avoid Classic Gold. For $10 you have to right to expect much more.

Comings and Goings

It was house cleaning week at the OLG. Four games were retired from play: $2 Cash for Life Family, Mahjong, Cross Tripler, and Emerald 7’s. All four were good choices and each had at least one grand prize left. Despite that, these games were deep sixed while three games continue to be sold that are devoid of grand prizes. I’m getting wound up again.

Personal Play

Ten Cash for Life $4 games were purchased. Four were winners returning $28. An altogether expected result. I am not discouraged.

Meanderings

A poster last week asked about the difference between Ontario 49 and Lottario. These are both “Winner Take All” type games but I thought that I would give them a look-see. Each game costs $1.

Lottario is a game where the pot builds if it is not won. You get two lines and 45 numbers to choose from. Your chance to win the jackpot is a little over 4 million:1. The OLG takes 50% of the money invested. It then takes $50,000 of the total invested and dedicates it to Early Bird players who must match all 4 numbers drawn in the early bird draw. In the results that I reviewed, there were  111 Early Bird winners. The total money of people who won $5 is then subtracted from what is left. There were over 33,000 $5 winners in the draw I reviewed. What is left is then split between the bigger winners on a percentage basis with the grand Prize winner(s) accruing 44% of the total funds. In other words, a little over 20% of all money that goes into the game goes to the one or maybe two winners.

Ontario 49 uses four more numbers and establishes fixed prizes for its top two winners. You receive one line of numbers and have one chance in 14 million to win the Grand Prize of $2 million. That amount will be split if there are two winners. The players with 5 of 6 plus the bonus split $50,000. There were 6 of those in the draw I reviewed. All other winners received fixed amounts regardless of the number of winners. The OLG has tried to enhance the number of winners by providing a free ticket to those who have 2 of six numbers plus the bonus number.

Which game is better? I would keep an eye on the Grand Prize for Lottario. If it is unclaimed for a few draws then I would prefer that game to Ontario 49. Lottario is also better for having 4 or 5 numbers correct. Ontario 49 is better for smaller prizes. Both games are poor by this standard when compared to Scratch and Win games. One final comment is that Ontario 49 markets itself on the basis of having lots of winners. Lottario yields one winner in every 20.89 tickets. Ontario 49 claims to have one winner in every 6.6 tickets. That’s true but remember that 80% of its winners win a free ticket. Your odds to win any monetary prize are 32:1.

I had fun looking at that. Please send along any other questions you may have.

Best of luck to Vic at Lac Leamy tomorrow.

Doug

Cash For Life #1165 Remains the Champ

The recommended game is setting all time records on my evaluation method. Why? Over 7% of total revenue is dedicated to the Grand Prize winners and two of those three prizes remain outstanding with only 23%, +/- 4% of the ticket float left to sell. Your odds to win are now roughly 860,000:1. I can't be sure but I gotta feeling that at least one of those prizes is about to be claimed, maybe both, very soon. A $4 investment with one chance in 3.54 to win any prize and two chances at $675,000 is more than enough to attract my attention.

If you intend to play the game, remember to play game #1165 and not #1161. The latter game is OK but the recommended game is a much better choice.

Top Rated Games

1. Cash For Life #1165 (23% of float left to sell +/- 4%)
2. Scrabble #1777 (10%, +/- 3%)
3. Cash For Life $2 (17%, +/- 2%)
4. Cross Tripler #1755 (9%, +/- 2%)
5. Prestige (37%, +/- 7%)

Games to Avoid

1. More Lucky Lines #1755
2. Fat Cat #1729
3. Quest For Gold Crossword #3204
4. Classic Gold #1771
5. Crossword #3205

$1 - $2 Game Update

The $1 Cash For Life game was retired this past week. The $2 version remains an excellent choice and the Red Hot 50's is also good if you don't mind sacrificing the prospect of a big Grand Prize.

$3 Game Update

Scrabble #1777 is a very strong choice. Keno #1412 and Mahjong are also playable.

$4 - $5 Game Update

There are other reasonable choices in this area but I can't recommend any game over the Cash For Life #1165.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Prestige took a serious hit this week, losing two Grand Prizes. Regardless, it remains the top pick in this group. If you don't like Prestige, then simply stay away from Classic Gold. It is terrible.

Comings and Goings

The $1 Cash for Life game was canceled this week. Too bad - there was one juicy prize left to be claimed and only 400,000 tickets left to sell.

New on the scene is a terrible Crossword game #3205 and a new version of an old favourite of this blog: Turbo Cash. A reader is already wading into this game and has had early success. Check his comments in the comments section of the previous post. The problem with these Crossword games is that they are cheap on the top end. There are only 10 Grand Prizes of $50,000 each and a staggering 20 million tickets in the float. Facing odds of 2 million:1 in order to win $50,000 does not ring my chime. Further, one chance in 6.84 to win anything more than $3 is second worst in this group next to Quest For Gold Crossword. Yes, I know that you like the game. So do I but try to resist the temptation.

Personal Play

I am expanding my play in order to attack Cash for Life #1165. Last week I bought 10 tickets. That left my seller with one left in the rack. Now, I defy anyone to tell me that they possess the kahunas to leave the store with 10 tickets whilst leaving an orphan ticket left to be sold to the next person. So, 11 tickets contained five winners. One winner was a free $10 Cash for Life ticket that was worth $10. My total return was $38 for the $44 invested. I have now bought 40 of these tickets. I have cashed 35% of them for a total return of $116.

Closing Comments

Imagined transcript from an OLG headquarters meeting on game management:

Boss - How is that $1 Cash for Life game going?
Subaltern - Well, we've sold 85% of the tickets and there is still one grand prize left to be won.
Boss - Should we order up the final tranche of tickets from the supplier?
Subaltern - At this point we have sold 2.6 million tickets which should translate into a profit of $900,000. But, there is a juicy $67,500 prize left out there somewhere.
Boss - Good. How much do we make if we sell every ticket?
Subaltern - $1.2 million but if that Grand Prize ticket sells soon, that money will come out of our existing profits and we'll have to sell the 400,000 tickets in the final tranche without any Grand Prize left to be won.
Boss - I see. What is your recommendation?
Subaltern - I think that we should hold off on the final tranche. We then choke all the vendors by not sending them any tickets. Once we're reasonably sure that the winning ticket won't show up, we cancel the game making us the winner of the $67,500 ticket. If the winning ticket gets claimed soon then we order the final tranche and flog them to unsuspecting players everywhere.
Boss - Agreed. Good work Jimmy, you've got a future at OLG.


Good Luck to all this week.

Doug

Cash For Life #1165 Remains The Strong Choice

Two hundred thousand of the estimated remaining 2.3 million tickets (+/- 4%) were sold last week without revealing a Grand Prize winner. Your odds of winning a Grand Prize now sit at an estimated 1.06 million:1. An interesting aspect to this game is that it is rich in smaller prizes and the Grand Prize is favourably positioned. The trade off is the prizes between $100 and the Grand Prize are poor. It's a game that you can grind along with while trying to hit the jackpot. With an estimated 30% of the float left to sell and two of the original three Grand Prizes still up for grabs, the time is now.

Top Rated Games

1. $1 Cash For Life Family (13% of float left +/- 25%)
2. $4 Cash for Life Family #1165 (30%, +/- 4%)
3. $10 Prestige (40%, +/- 7%)
4. $2 Cash for Life Family (18%, +/- 2%)
5. $5 Cross Tripler #1755 (9%, +/- 2%)

Games to Avoid

1. $3 More Lucky Lines #1775 (19%, +/- 3%)
2. $2 Fat Cat (25%, +/- 4%)
3. $3 QFG Crossword (29%, +/- 1%)
4. $3 Bingo (53%, +/- 2%)
5. $3 Tetris (52%, +/- 3%)

$1 - $2 Game Update

Either Cash For Life game is a good choice as is the Red Hot 50's.

$3 Game Update

At long last we have a couple of good choices in this area. They are: Keno #1412 and Scrabble #1777. This is a treacherous area that also contains 4 of the 5 worst games currently for sale. Be alert.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Cash For Life #1165, Cross Tripler #1755 and Emerald 7's are all good choices. There is but one Grand Prize remaining in Emerald 7's and only 235,000 tickets left to sell +/- 60,000. Those are presently the best odds to win any Grand Prize.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Prestige and the two $20 Games are OK and continue to lumber on. $200 Million had its first $2 million winner in over eight months last week. The winner was not from Ontario as far as I can determine.

Comings and Goings

Cash In was retired this week three weeks after the last Grand Prize was claimed. It had 14% of its float left to sell +/- 3%. The jumbo game Crossword #3202 was also retired. The game was only introduced last November and it sold almost all of its 20 million ticket float. It was a poor choice so players who don't pay attention to such trivialities were done a favour by the OLG.

Taking their respective places are $5 Sapphire 7's and another $3 More Lucky Lines game #1776. The More Lucky Lines game is very much like its sister but buyer beware: the earlier version #1775 is devoid of Grand Prizes and currently tops our Games to Avoid list. Don't be fooled. The $5 Sapphire 7's game is very much like the Emerald 7's game that is also currently for sale. It looks OK but the Emerald 7's game is the better choice of the two.

Personal Play

I opened up this past week in search of the CFL Grand Prize. Ten tickets contained three winners totaling $16. Not good. I'm going to stick to this strategy until further notice.

Other Comments

A reader this past week commented on one Anthony Binkowski of Ottawa who won between $2000 and $5000 on four different occasions on Daily Keno and Ontario 49. It does seem unusual. I Googled his name without finding out much. I did find a young chap who I doubt has thousands of dollars that he pours into these games. There's a story there but I don't have any angles that seem credible right off of the top of my head. If you do, post away.

I downloaded the report from the Auditor General for Ontario http://www.auditor.on.ca/en/ on his recent review of the OLG's Modernization Plan. It is a long but interesting read. In short, the OLG's much heralded plan was overly optimistic, misrepresented some negative points, and lacked consultation. As a result, its implementation has been blockaded in major municipalities, is behind schedule elsewhere, and its projected positive outcomes scaled back based upon the AG's risk assessment.

My conclusion is that the Senior Management of the OLG was more committed to running the OLG like they were private casino operators with special powers than they were as an agency of the Government of Ontario. The fact that the Government of Ontario booked the OLG's wildly optimisitic revenue projections into its overall budget without questioning its merit, leaves me somewhat stunned.

It is clear to me why Mr.Godfrey and former CEO Rod Phillips and the previous board had to be replaced. I will provide readers with highlights of the report in coming posts.

The Kentucky Derby was won by the 5-2 favourite in a 19 horse field. He looked good but it was a short price on that horse. Congratulations to those who had him.

Doug

Cash For Life Family #1165 Remains the Choice

An uneventful week with Grand Prizes being claimed in More Lucky Lines, QFG Crossword (2), Tetris, Cross Tripler (both versions), and CFL Family $10. The recommended game remained unscathed. It is noteworthy that the secondary prizes have also not been hollowed out for this game. It is a strong choice. At present, your chance to win the Grand Prize is 1.2 million to 1.

A reader commented this past week that he hates the game. I can well understand anyone's frustration with any game. As much as this blog identifies the best plays, I would never argue against trusting one's instincts. If you feel lucky, jump in!

Top Rated Games

1. CFL Family $1 (13% of float left +/- 25%)
2. CFL Family $4 (33% of float left +/- 4%)
3. Prestige (41% of float left +/- 7%)
4. CFL Family $2 (19% of float left +/- 4%)
5. $200 Million (46% of float left +/- 4%)

Games to Avoid

1. Cash In (23% of float left +/- 3%)
2. More Lucky Lines (22% of float left +/- 3%)
3. QFG Crossword (35% of float left +/- 1%)
4. Tetris (63% of float left +/- 3%)
5. Bingo (57% of float left +/- 2%)

$1 - $2 Game Update

If you can find any $1 or $2 CFL Games for sale, grab them. It's rare that inexpensive games are this highly rated.

$3 Game Update

Keno #1412 is the recommended game in this area. Mahjong and Scrabble are also reasonable choices.

$4 - $5 Game Update

The CFL $4 game towers over the other games. Remember, its game #1165. Game #1161 is not bad, but nowhere near as good as the recommended game.

$10 - $20 Games Update

Prestige and either of the $20 games are reasonable choices.

Comings and Goings

A $2 Crazy Eights game was introduced this past week. Its prize structure looks like the typical pyramid distribution and its Prizes > $100 and for the Grand Prize of $28,888 (there are 5 available) are good. The game has potential, just not yet.

Personal Play

Six CFL Family $4 games included two winners worth $16. A typical and not unexpected result.

Closing Comments

A reader messaged me this past week reminding me about the original Wintario draws that were televised with Faye Dance. I remember the show but would never have come up with her name without his message. The OLG has certainly evolved greatly since those days in the middle 70's.

If any one has an opinion on the Kentucky Derby tomorrow, send it along. No race is tougher to handicap.


Doug

Cash for Life Family $4 Stays On Top

With two Grand Prizes left to claim and 2.6 million tickets left to sell, +/- 3%, the top rated game maintained its position over the course of the past week. That will change once the next Grand Prize for the game is claimed.

 The $1 CFL game is actually the top rated game but with the small number of reported prizes, we can only state a rating to +/- 25% and that is too large a margin to be relied upon. The game has one Grand prize left so if you can find any tickets for sale (I can’t, but a reader did) then give it a try.

Last week saw Grand Prizes claimed for QFG Crossword, Money Multiplier, and CFL Family $10. If your priority is winning a Grand Prize then Cross Tripler #1755 is your game. Your odds to win one of the four remaining $100,000 Grand Prizes are a low 221,000:1.

Top Rated Games

1. CFL Family $1 (13% of float left to sell)
2. CFL Family $4 (38%)
3. Prestige (42%)
4. Cross Tripler #1755 (11%)
5. CFL Family $2 (20%)

 Games to Avoid

1. Cash In (14%)
2. QFG Crossword (41%)
3. Bingo (62%)
4. Crossword (6%)
5. Blazing Sevens (71%)

Note that there are two versions of CFL $4 and Cross Tripler currently for sale. Be careful to choose the correct version.

$1 - $2 Game Update

It remains good days for this category of game. Either CFL game or Red Hot 50’s are good choices.

$3 Game Update

Keno #1412 is the recommended game. Be careful to avoid the new version #1414.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Avoid Cash In and 20X Lucky.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Avoid CFL Family $10 and Classic Gold. It has been eight months and almost 4 million tickets sold since $200 Million revealed a Grand Prize. Is it due or is it a dud? The game has been on sale for over a year and there is a new $20 game available. 

Comings and Goings

Cherry Triple was retired this past week. It was a lousy $1 game that had a permanent place on the “Games to Avoid” list. There was one grand prize and 757,000 tickets left to sell +/- 6%.

A second Keno game came on line this week. This version looks very much like the earlier version. The earlier game is, however, in an advantageous position so buy tickets for version 1412 and not the new 1414. One thing I like about this game is that the prize distribution looks like a pyramid. There should be progressively more of every prize working down to the smallest prize. That is not always the case. Just personal preference.

Personal Play

Six CFL Family $4 games started off with a bang with a $20 winner. The next five contained one $4 winner. For me in 2014, breaking even feels good. My cash rate is now 33% and my ROI is 63%.

Other News

The OLG is getting ready to launch its on-line gaming site. This is part of their "Modernization" plan. Other provinces already have a functioning site. The Quebec site is www.espacejeux.com .

Once up and running, you will be able to purchase certain lotto games, play on-line poker, and play slots on-line. According to their plan, overall slot play will flat line and even decrease in the province due to demographics. This initiative will bring gaming "closer to the customer". They project to earn an additional $100 million per year from the initiative. Other "modernization" plans that all involve having the private sector get involved, do it better, and increase revenue, will add an additional $180 million to the provincial coffers annually. 

I don't buy any of it. The OLG is aggressive in their clap trap about responsible play and ensuring that minors can't get on-line but, in my view, their actions belie their media lines. Slot machines are an evil menace and letting people play from home on their computers will not be good news for players who are addicted to those machines. There are many seniors who play slots but they can only do so when they actually get to a slot location. Now they'll be able to do it from their own bedroom. That cannot be good. I believe that people will slowly get their fill of sinking money into slot machines and that the revenue they generate will drop as a result. It is precisely that that the OLG is concerned about. Those machines account for over 80% of their profit. This desperate move on the part of the OLG will target players who have a weakness in this area and not the occasional players who play responsibly. 

But that's just me. If you're interested, you can follow them on twitter @PlayOLG. You can also follow me @Usockem. 

It looks like spring has arrived. Hats off to everyone for surviving the past two months. 

Doug  

Cash for Life Family $4 Takes Top Spot

I had a difficult time last week locating Cash for Life Family $2 tickets. They were nowhere to be found in my area, nor were the $1 version of the game. Happily, one of the two remaining Grand Prizes for that game was claimed last week thereby knocking the game down the rating chart. Its $4 sister game has overtaken in the rankings and now rests on the top of the chart. This game has two of its initial three Grand Prizes left to be claimed and an estimated 42% of its float left to claim. Players have one chance in 2.5 million to win $1000/week for life or, if it suits your fancy, a one-time payment of $675,000. Be careful if you choose to play this game as another version of the game, #1161, is for sale at the same time. That game is selling more slowly than the Family version of the game. Also note that the $1 version of the game is our actual top rated game although my confidence in the estimated number of tickets left to sell remains shaky.

Top Rated Games

1.       Cash for Life $1 (estimated 13% of its float left to sell)

2.       Cash for Life $4 #1165 (42%)

3.       Prestige (42%)

4.       Cash For Life $10 (60%)

5.       Cross Tripler #1755 (12%)

Games to Avoid

1.       Cash In (15%)

2.       Cherry Triple (24%)

3.       Quest for Gold Crossword (46%)

4.       Bingo (66%)

5.       Fat Cat (33%)

$1 - $2 Game Update

Either Cash for Life or the Red Hot 50’s Game are good choices. Avoid the rest.

$3 Game Update

The top game in this group was retired last week despite two remaining Grand Prizes and an estimated 900,000 tickets left to sell. Low sales, no doubt, is the reason why. The top rated game left is Keno #1412.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Avoid Cash In and Aces and Eights.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Avoid Classic Gold

Comings and Goings

Super Bingo was retired as mentioned above. It was the best rated $3 game and I’m sad to see it go. Two Grand Prizes each worth $50,000 went down with it.

A new Money Multiplier game #1769 was launched this past week. I like the fact that it has a present high of 6.4% of its total revenue returned to winners of between $100 and the second prize for the game. Most games are between 2 and 3 percent in this area. Of course, you pay for it with less prizes of less than $100 but I like the trade off. The only minor complaint I have is that there are fewer second prizes (4), than Grand Prizes (6). I don’t like that I have less chance to uncover a $25,000 prize than I do a $100,000 prize.

Personal Play

I managed to find a single $2 Cash for Life ticket that returned my $2. The remaining $4 Cash for Life tickets contained one $4 winner.

I also played the Poker Lotto game for $9 based on the recommendations from the comments section of the blog. I received an instant return of $5 and nothing on the draw that night. What is strange is that my three hands contained cards from 8 differing denominations (Ace – Deuce). I had zero correct on any line for the draw. What are the chances that all five cards drawn (there was a pair) would all be from the five denominations that I was missing? About 120-1! I need someone to explain to me why unusually unlucky outcomes happen to me with regularity but I can never win a decent prize. I’m sure that there is a reasonable explanation somewhere.

Other Topics

As I follow up to last week’s entry, I found an interesting story on line yesterday.  http://bit.ly/RnxoRN Whether the player was “cheating” or not is a subject of interest but I found the reader comment posted by glistens1 to be of interest. He/she suggests that how the lottery folks define the term random may be different than how you or I define the term. That may well be the case. It’s possible that tickets are distributed randomly but also towards rural areas more than overall sales would suggest. I’m not suggesting that it is so but it has tweaked my interest.

I close by declaring that I am not a fan of the “OLG Modernization” plan. I will write more on it in the future. You can familiarize yourself with what they plan to do, including on line slots and lottery ticket purchases, here. 

Best.

Doug

Cash For Life $2 Takes Over the Top Spot

I'm back from my vacation in Dubai where I can assure everyone there are no Scratch and Win tickets for sale. During my absence, Cash In got wiped out with all four of its remaining Grand Prizes being claimed.

The new top rated game is the $1 Cash for Life game but I really cannot recommend it due to the very limited sample size of top prizes that is recorded for the game. Many readers ask me where I get the figures I use when I speak to the number of tickets remaining. I estimate that number based upon the sample of tickets sold as represented by the reported top prizes. More information on this is included at the end of this entry. Although the $1 Cash For Life is the top rated game, the game only reports on the 15 total prizes that are recorded on the web site. With such a small sample, I can only state the numbers +/- 25%. That is way too much variation. Instead, I will recommend the second rated game, $2 Cash For Life. This game has 2 of its original 3 Grand Prizes left to claim and only 23% of its float left to sell +/- 2%. This is the first time since I began this blog that a $1 - $2 game has been top rated. It means that I can either get lots of tickets or save money this week. I wonder what I'll do?

 

Top Rated Games

1. Cash For Life $1 (13% of float left to sell)
2. Cash For Life $2 (23%)
3. Prestige (43%)
4. Cash For Life $4 (45%)
5. Cash For Life $10 (61%)

Note: The Cash For Life Family is dominating the ratings at present. If you are playing the $4 version be careful to play game #1165 and not game #1161.

Games to Avoid

1. Cash In (15%)
2. Cherry Triple (24%)
3. QFG Crossword (52%)
4. Fat Cat (35%)
5. Blazing 7s (79%)

$1 - $2 Game Update

Either Cash for Life is a good choice. Even Red Hot 50s is a good choice for those seeking a small but frequent Grand Prize.

$3 Game Update

Super Bingo continues its climb up the ratings. It is the first $3 game in some time to be rated as being playable.

$4 - $5 Game Update

The Cash For Life 1165 is a good choice as is Cross Tripler 1755. If you like the Cross Tripler game, take care to play 1755 and not 1766.

$10 - $20 Game Update

All the games here are a reasonable choice with the exception of Classic Gold.

Comings and Goings

Monopoly was retired this past week. It had one Grand Prize left and a modest rating. It will not be missed.

Tetris and a new $20 game were introduced. Tetris begins life as a mid range $3 game. Its potential will be determined by when and if its two Grand Prizes are claimed. If they remain unclaimed for some time then the game has the potential to move up the ratings.

The new $20 game is an inter-provincial game. Extraord is almost identical to $200 Million. The prizes are the same but the new game has a few more losing tickets tossed in. I find it interesting that this game has come on line. The old $20 game has been on sale for over a year and they are selling slowly. Canadians simply do not like to spend that much money on a scratch ticket. Now with two games on the market and people's propensity to choose new games over older ones, I will predict that the $200 Million game is in trouble. There are still over 7 million of these tickets left to sell and I have no idea how they will manage to sell them. It remains a better choice than the new game so if you like $20 games, feel free to help the sales for the $200 Million game.

Personal Play

A mixed bag of tickets a few weeks back contained a $25 Cash In winner plus some smaller prizes. I am now cashing at a rate of 33% and my ROI is 65%.

Other Comments

I want to clarify to readers how I estimate the size of ticket floats remaining for various games. I know the size of the initial float from the game sheet. I then assume that the number of top prizes claimed, as indicated on the outstanding prize chart, is a representative sample of the entire game. For example, the $2 CFL game began play with 2154 top prizes being listed on the OLG site. At present, 500 remain. That is 23.2% of those prizes. I project that sample across the entire game. Therefore, because the game began play with 3,060,00 tickets I would estimate that 710,000 remain to be sold. How accurate is that sample? There is math available to work this out. In this case, it is accurate to +/- 2%, 19 times out of twenty.

I get into trouble when the sample size gets smaller. For example, Prestige only lists 205 top prizes. The math would suggest that the estimate for that game is +/- 7% 19 times out of 20. When I estimate its remaining float at 42%, I should more accurately state a range of 35% - 49%.

I will state these numbers with that caveat for the next little while although I'm not sure that readers wish to see that. Please post a message if you have any thoughts on the subject.

It's good to be home - where's my lucky scratching loony?

Doug