Cash For Life #1165 Remains The Strong Choice

Two hundred thousand of the estimated remaining 2.3 million tickets (+/- 4%) were sold last week without revealing a Grand Prize winner. Your odds of winning a Grand Prize now sit at an estimated 1.06 million:1. An interesting aspect to this game is that it is rich in smaller prizes and the Grand Prize is favourably positioned. The trade off is the prizes between $100 and the Grand Prize are poor. It's a game that you can grind along with while trying to hit the jackpot. With an estimated 30% of the float left to sell and two of the original three Grand Prizes still up for grabs, the time is now.

Top Rated Games

1. $1 Cash For Life Family (13% of float left +/- 25%)
2. $4 Cash for Life Family #1165 (30%, +/- 4%)
3. $10 Prestige (40%, +/- 7%)
4. $2 Cash for Life Family (18%, +/- 2%)
5. $5 Cross Tripler #1755 (9%, +/- 2%)

Games to Avoid

1. $3 More Lucky Lines #1775 (19%, +/- 3%)
2. $2 Fat Cat (25%, +/- 4%)
3. $3 QFG Crossword (29%, +/- 1%)
4. $3 Bingo (53%, +/- 2%)
5. $3 Tetris (52%, +/- 3%)

$1 - $2 Game Update

Either Cash For Life game is a good choice as is the Red Hot 50's.

$3 Game Update

At long last we have a couple of good choices in this area. They are: Keno #1412 and Scrabble #1777. This is a treacherous area that also contains 4 of the 5 worst games currently for sale. Be alert.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Cash For Life #1165, Cross Tripler #1755 and Emerald 7's are all good choices. There is but one Grand Prize remaining in Emerald 7's and only 235,000 tickets left to sell +/- 60,000. Those are presently the best odds to win any Grand Prize.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Prestige and the two $20 Games are OK and continue to lumber on. $200 Million had its first $2 million winner in over eight months last week. The winner was not from Ontario as far as I can determine.

Comings and Goings

Cash In was retired this week three weeks after the last Grand Prize was claimed. It had 14% of its float left to sell +/- 3%. The jumbo game Crossword #3202 was also retired. The game was only introduced last November and it sold almost all of its 20 million ticket float. It was a poor choice so players who don't pay attention to such trivialities were done a favour by the OLG.

Taking their respective places are $5 Sapphire 7's and another $3 More Lucky Lines game #1776. The More Lucky Lines game is very much like its sister but buyer beware: the earlier version #1775 is devoid of Grand Prizes and currently tops our Games to Avoid list. Don't be fooled. The $5 Sapphire 7's game is very much like the Emerald 7's game that is also currently for sale. It looks OK but the Emerald 7's game is the better choice of the two.

Personal Play

I opened up this past week in search of the CFL Grand Prize. Ten tickets contained three winners totaling $16. Not good. I'm going to stick to this strategy until further notice.

Other Comments

A reader this past week commented on one Anthony Binkowski of Ottawa who won between $2000 and $5000 on four different occasions on Daily Keno and Ontario 49. It does seem unusual. I Googled his name without finding out much. I did find a young chap who I doubt has thousands of dollars that he pours into these games. There's a story there but I don't have any angles that seem credible right off of the top of my head. If you do, post away.

I downloaded the report from the Auditor General for Ontario http://www.auditor.on.ca/en/ on his recent review of the OLG's Modernization Plan. It is a long but interesting read. In short, the OLG's much heralded plan was overly optimistic, misrepresented some negative points, and lacked consultation. As a result, its implementation has been blockaded in major municipalities, is behind schedule elsewhere, and its projected positive outcomes scaled back based upon the AG's risk assessment.

My conclusion is that the Senior Management of the OLG was more committed to running the OLG like they were private casino operators with special powers than they were as an agency of the Government of Ontario. The fact that the Government of Ontario booked the OLG's wildly optimisitic revenue projections into its overall budget without questioning its merit, leaves me somewhat stunned.

It is clear to me why Mr.Godfrey and former CEO Rod Phillips and the previous board had to be replaced. I will provide readers with highlights of the report in coming posts.

The Kentucky Derby was won by the 5-2 favourite in a 19 horse field. He looked good but it was a short price on that horse. Congratulations to those who had him.

Doug

Cash For Life Family #1165 Remains the Choice

An uneventful week with Grand Prizes being claimed in More Lucky Lines, QFG Crossword (2), Tetris, Cross Tripler (both versions), and CFL Family $10. The recommended game remained unscathed. It is noteworthy that the secondary prizes have also not been hollowed out for this game. It is a strong choice. At present, your chance to win the Grand Prize is 1.2 million to 1.

A reader commented this past week that he hates the game. I can well understand anyone's frustration with any game. As much as this blog identifies the best plays, I would never argue against trusting one's instincts. If you feel lucky, jump in!

Top Rated Games

1. CFL Family $1 (13% of float left +/- 25%)
2. CFL Family $4 (33% of float left +/- 4%)
3. Prestige (41% of float left +/- 7%)
4. CFL Family $2 (19% of float left +/- 4%)
5. $200 Million (46% of float left +/- 4%)

Games to Avoid

1. Cash In (23% of float left +/- 3%)
2. More Lucky Lines (22% of float left +/- 3%)
3. QFG Crossword (35% of float left +/- 1%)
4. Tetris (63% of float left +/- 3%)
5. Bingo (57% of float left +/- 2%)

$1 - $2 Game Update

If you can find any $1 or $2 CFL Games for sale, grab them. It's rare that inexpensive games are this highly rated.

$3 Game Update

Keno #1412 is the recommended game in this area. Mahjong and Scrabble are also reasonable choices.

$4 - $5 Game Update

The CFL $4 game towers over the other games. Remember, its game #1165. Game #1161 is not bad, but nowhere near as good as the recommended game.

$10 - $20 Games Update

Prestige and either of the $20 games are reasonable choices.

Comings and Goings

A $2 Crazy Eights game was introduced this past week. Its prize structure looks like the typical pyramid distribution and its Prizes > $100 and for the Grand Prize of $28,888 (there are 5 available) are good. The game has potential, just not yet.

Personal Play

Six CFL Family $4 games included two winners worth $16. A typical and not unexpected result.

Closing Comments

A reader messaged me this past week reminding me about the original Wintario draws that were televised with Faye Dance. I remember the show but would never have come up with her name without his message. The OLG has certainly evolved greatly since those days in the middle 70's.

If any one has an opinion on the Kentucky Derby tomorrow, send it along. No race is tougher to handicap.


Doug

Cash for Life Family $4 Stays On Top

With two Grand Prizes left to claim and 2.6 million tickets left to sell, +/- 3%, the top rated game maintained its position over the course of the past week. That will change once the next Grand Prize for the game is claimed.

 The $1 CFL game is actually the top rated game but with the small number of reported prizes, we can only state a rating to +/- 25% and that is too large a margin to be relied upon. The game has one Grand prize left so if you can find any tickets for sale (I can’t, but a reader did) then give it a try.

Last week saw Grand Prizes claimed for QFG Crossword, Money Multiplier, and CFL Family $10. If your priority is winning a Grand Prize then Cross Tripler #1755 is your game. Your odds to win one of the four remaining $100,000 Grand Prizes are a low 221,000:1.

Top Rated Games

1. CFL Family $1 (13% of float left to sell)
2. CFL Family $4 (38%)
3. Prestige (42%)
4. Cross Tripler #1755 (11%)
5. CFL Family $2 (20%)

 Games to Avoid

1. Cash In (14%)
2. QFG Crossword (41%)
3. Bingo (62%)
4. Crossword (6%)
5. Blazing Sevens (71%)

Note that there are two versions of CFL $4 and Cross Tripler currently for sale. Be careful to choose the correct version.

$1 - $2 Game Update

It remains good days for this category of game. Either CFL game or Red Hot 50’s are good choices.

$3 Game Update

Keno #1412 is the recommended game. Be careful to avoid the new version #1414.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Avoid Cash In and 20X Lucky.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Avoid CFL Family $10 and Classic Gold. It has been eight months and almost 4 million tickets sold since $200 Million revealed a Grand Prize. Is it due or is it a dud? The game has been on sale for over a year and there is a new $20 game available. 

Comings and Goings

Cherry Triple was retired this past week. It was a lousy $1 game that had a permanent place on the “Games to Avoid” list. There was one grand prize and 757,000 tickets left to sell +/- 6%.

A second Keno game came on line this week. This version looks very much like the earlier version. The earlier game is, however, in an advantageous position so buy tickets for version 1412 and not the new 1414. One thing I like about this game is that the prize distribution looks like a pyramid. There should be progressively more of every prize working down to the smallest prize. That is not always the case. Just personal preference.

Personal Play

Six CFL Family $4 games started off with a bang with a $20 winner. The next five contained one $4 winner. For me in 2014, breaking even feels good. My cash rate is now 33% and my ROI is 63%.

Other News

The OLG is getting ready to launch its on-line gaming site. This is part of their "Modernization" plan. Other provinces already have a functioning site. The Quebec site is www.espacejeux.com .

Once up and running, you will be able to purchase certain lotto games, play on-line poker, and play slots on-line. According to their plan, overall slot play will flat line and even decrease in the province due to demographics. This initiative will bring gaming "closer to the customer". They project to earn an additional $100 million per year from the initiative. Other "modernization" plans that all involve having the private sector get involved, do it better, and increase revenue, will add an additional $180 million to the provincial coffers annually. 

I don't buy any of it. The OLG is aggressive in their clap trap about responsible play and ensuring that minors can't get on-line but, in my view, their actions belie their media lines. Slot machines are an evil menace and letting people play from home on their computers will not be good news for players who are addicted to those machines. There are many seniors who play slots but they can only do so when they actually get to a slot location. Now they'll be able to do it from their own bedroom. That cannot be good. I believe that people will slowly get their fill of sinking money into slot machines and that the revenue they generate will drop as a result. It is precisely that that the OLG is concerned about. Those machines account for over 80% of their profit. This desperate move on the part of the OLG will target players who have a weakness in this area and not the occasional players who play responsibly. 

But that's just me. If you're interested, you can follow them on twitter @PlayOLG. You can also follow me @Usockem. 

It looks like spring has arrived. Hats off to everyone for surviving the past two months. 

Doug  

Cash for Life Family $4 Takes Top Spot

I had a difficult time last week locating Cash for Life Family $2 tickets. They were nowhere to be found in my area, nor were the $1 version of the game. Happily, one of the two remaining Grand Prizes for that game was claimed last week thereby knocking the game down the rating chart. Its $4 sister game has overtaken in the rankings and now rests on the top of the chart. This game has two of its initial three Grand Prizes left to be claimed and an estimated 42% of its float left to claim. Players have one chance in 2.5 million to win $1000/week for life or, if it suits your fancy, a one-time payment of $675,000. Be careful if you choose to play this game as another version of the game, #1161, is for sale at the same time. That game is selling more slowly than the Family version of the game. Also note that the $1 version of the game is our actual top rated game although my confidence in the estimated number of tickets left to sell remains shaky.

Top Rated Games

1.       Cash for Life $1 (estimated 13% of its float left to sell)

2.       Cash for Life $4 #1165 (42%)

3.       Prestige (42%)

4.       Cash For Life $10 (60%)

5.       Cross Tripler #1755 (12%)

Games to Avoid

1.       Cash In (15%)

2.       Cherry Triple (24%)

3.       Quest for Gold Crossword (46%)

4.       Bingo (66%)

5.       Fat Cat (33%)

$1 - $2 Game Update

Either Cash for Life or the Red Hot 50’s Game are good choices. Avoid the rest.

$3 Game Update

The top game in this group was retired last week despite two remaining Grand Prizes and an estimated 900,000 tickets left to sell. Low sales, no doubt, is the reason why. The top rated game left is Keno #1412.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Avoid Cash In and Aces and Eights.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Avoid Classic Gold

Comings and Goings

Super Bingo was retired as mentioned above. It was the best rated $3 game and I’m sad to see it go. Two Grand Prizes each worth $50,000 went down with it.

A new Money Multiplier game #1769 was launched this past week. I like the fact that it has a present high of 6.4% of its total revenue returned to winners of between $100 and the second prize for the game. Most games are between 2 and 3 percent in this area. Of course, you pay for it with less prizes of less than $100 but I like the trade off. The only minor complaint I have is that there are fewer second prizes (4), than Grand Prizes (6). I don’t like that I have less chance to uncover a $25,000 prize than I do a $100,000 prize.

Personal Play

I managed to find a single $2 Cash for Life ticket that returned my $2. The remaining $4 Cash for Life tickets contained one $4 winner.

I also played the Poker Lotto game for $9 based on the recommendations from the comments section of the blog. I received an instant return of $5 and nothing on the draw that night. What is strange is that my three hands contained cards from 8 differing denominations (Ace – Deuce). I had zero correct on any line for the draw. What are the chances that all five cards drawn (there was a pair) would all be from the five denominations that I was missing? About 120-1! I need someone to explain to me why unusually unlucky outcomes happen to me with regularity but I can never win a decent prize. I’m sure that there is a reasonable explanation somewhere.

Other Topics

As I follow up to last week’s entry, I found an interesting story on line yesterday.  http://bit.ly/RnxoRN Whether the player was “cheating” or not is a subject of interest but I found the reader comment posted by glistens1 to be of interest. He/she suggests that how the lottery folks define the term random may be different than how you or I define the term. That may well be the case. It’s possible that tickets are distributed randomly but also towards rural areas more than overall sales would suggest. I’m not suggesting that it is so but it has tweaked my interest.

I close by declaring that I am not a fan of the “OLG Modernization” plan. I will write more on it in the future. You can familiarize yourself with what they plan to do, including on line slots and lottery ticket purchases, here. 

Best.

Doug

Cash For Life $2 Takes Over the Top Spot

I'm back from my vacation in Dubai where I can assure everyone there are no Scratch and Win tickets for sale. During my absence, Cash In got wiped out with all four of its remaining Grand Prizes being claimed.

The new top rated game is the $1 Cash for Life game but I really cannot recommend it due to the very limited sample size of top prizes that is recorded for the game. Many readers ask me where I get the figures I use when I speak to the number of tickets remaining. I estimate that number based upon the sample of tickets sold as represented by the reported top prizes. More information on this is included at the end of this entry. Although the $1 Cash For Life is the top rated game, the game only reports on the 15 total prizes that are recorded on the web site. With such a small sample, I can only state the numbers +/- 25%. That is way too much variation. Instead, I will recommend the second rated game, $2 Cash For Life. This game has 2 of its original 3 Grand Prizes left to claim and only 23% of its float left to sell +/- 2%. This is the first time since I began this blog that a $1 - $2 game has been top rated. It means that I can either get lots of tickets or save money this week. I wonder what I'll do?

 

Top Rated Games

1. Cash For Life $1 (13% of float left to sell)
2. Cash For Life $2 (23%)
3. Prestige (43%)
4. Cash For Life $4 (45%)
5. Cash For Life $10 (61%)

Note: The Cash For Life Family is dominating the ratings at present. If you are playing the $4 version be careful to play game #1165 and not game #1161.

Games to Avoid

1. Cash In (15%)
2. Cherry Triple (24%)
3. QFG Crossword (52%)
4. Fat Cat (35%)
5. Blazing 7s (79%)

$1 - $2 Game Update

Either Cash for Life is a good choice. Even Red Hot 50s is a good choice for those seeking a small but frequent Grand Prize.

$3 Game Update

Super Bingo continues its climb up the ratings. It is the first $3 game in some time to be rated as being playable.

$4 - $5 Game Update

The Cash For Life 1165 is a good choice as is Cross Tripler 1755. If you like the Cross Tripler game, take care to play 1755 and not 1766.

$10 - $20 Game Update

All the games here are a reasonable choice with the exception of Classic Gold.

Comings and Goings

Monopoly was retired this past week. It had one Grand Prize left and a modest rating. It will not be missed.

Tetris and a new $20 game were introduced. Tetris begins life as a mid range $3 game. Its potential will be determined by when and if its two Grand Prizes are claimed. If they remain unclaimed for some time then the game has the potential to move up the ratings.

The new $20 game is an inter-provincial game. Extraord is almost identical to $200 Million. The prizes are the same but the new game has a few more losing tickets tossed in. I find it interesting that this game has come on line. The old $20 game has been on sale for over a year and they are selling slowly. Canadians simply do not like to spend that much money on a scratch ticket. Now with two games on the market and people's propensity to choose new games over older ones, I will predict that the $200 Million game is in trouble. There are still over 7 million of these tickets left to sell and I have no idea how they will manage to sell them. It remains a better choice than the new game so if you like $20 games, feel free to help the sales for the $200 Million game.

Personal Play

A mixed bag of tickets a few weeks back contained a $25 Cash In winner plus some smaller prizes. I am now cashing at a rate of 33% and my ROI is 65%.

Other Comments

I want to clarify to readers how I estimate the size of ticket floats remaining for various games. I know the size of the initial float from the game sheet. I then assume that the number of top prizes claimed, as indicated on the outstanding prize chart, is a representative sample of the entire game. For example, the $2 CFL game began play with 2154 top prizes being listed on the OLG site. At present, 500 remain. That is 23.2% of those prizes. I project that sample across the entire game. Therefore, because the game began play with 3,060,00 tickets I would estimate that 710,000 remain to be sold. How accurate is that sample? There is math available to work this out. In this case, it is accurate to +/- 2%, 19 times out of twenty.

I get into trouble when the sample size gets smaller. For example, Prestige only lists 205 top prizes. The math would suggest that the estimate for that game is +/- 7% 19 times out of 20. When I estimate its remaining float at 42%, I should more accurately state a range of 35% - 49%.

I will state these numbers with that caveat for the next little while although I'm not sure that readers wish to see that. Please post a message if you have any thoughts on the subject.

It's good to be home - where's my lucky scratching loony?

Doug

Cash In #1762 Blasts Its Way To The Top

Cash In is the new top rated game and it is looking very good, at present. Four of the seven Grand Prizes of $100,000 remain to be claimed and an estimated 23% of the ticket float remains to be sold. That represents the largest imbalance for a game currently for sale. The odds of winning one of those four jackpots is only 150,000:1. Otherwise, the game has a decent rate of winning tickets and a reasonable range of prizes $100 or larger. The only thing about the game I don't like is the relatively high number of prizes for the cost of the ticket.

Our old favourites, Prestige and $200 Million, are languishing. I'd like to be at the meetings where the lottery gurus discuss what to do with these games. Each of them has likely sold only half of their floats and sales remain low. $200 Million will have been on sale for a year in a couple of weeks.

 

Top Rated Games

1. Cash In (estimated 23% of float left to sell)
2. CFL Family $2  (30%)
3. Prestige (49%)
4. Emerald 7's (19%)
5. CFL Family $1 (25%)

Games to Avoid

1. Cherry Triple (25%)
2. Fat Cat (43%)
3. More Lucky Lines (56%)
4. QFG Crossword (68%)
5. Bingo Express (88%)

Note: I reported last week that Cherry Triple had been retired. Well, it looks like the webmaster at OLG made a boo boo that was subsequently repaired. Its back on the list - and it sucks!

$1 - $2 Game Update

These are halcyon days for these games. Two of them in the top five rated games is rare. Even the new Red Hot 50's looks good.

$3 Game Update

The slow repairs on these games continues. There are no games devoid of a Grand Prize. Super Bingo #3013 is almost looking good.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Cash In and Emerald 7's stand above the other games. There is really nothing bad in this area.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Classic Gold lost another Grand Prize this week. Although the other three games are all good, they should be given the cost of the ticket. We need people to buy some more losers in these games before we jump back in.

Comings and Goings

The new $1 Red Hot 50's is another one of those games that tricks my evaluation algorythm. Its Grand Prize is only $50 but there are over 10,000 of them! The cash rate for the game is poor but if it's $50 you're after - this is your game. A new 20X Lucky also came on stream. It has a good distribution of prizes and begins life with a good rating. This one has potential. Lastly, a new Cross Tripler game has appeared. There is no detail sheet posted on the OLG site so I am unable to comment on it.

Personal Play

I spread my play around this week, including a Lotto Max, and had another poor week. I am currently sitting at a cash rate of 28% and a return on investment of 56%.

Closing Comments

Jay reports that his concentration on Emerald 7's is still going well. He has begun to mix in some Cash In tickets as well. Vic has posted some interesting comments on Lotto Poker. I refer you to the comments section on the previous post for more detail.

I close with an interesting fact: the OLG currently oversees 10,205 slot machines in the province. Each one of those devils earns, on average, $440 per day for the OLG. That is 365 days per year. And the OLG refuses to divulge the pay off rates on their machines.

I'm off for vacation to Dubai. I can assure you that there is no gambling allowed there but I will try to update the blog from that location unless the OLG site is blocked by their censors!

Happy St. Patrick's day to all, especially the Emerald 7s players.

Doug

Prestige Gets Its Nose In Front Again

Emerald 7's no sooner took over top spot than it lost a Grand Prize. It remains a good choice but our old friend Prestige has taken the opportunity to retake the top spot in the ratings. Both Prestige and $200 Million continue to lag in sales. $200 Million was the benefactor of an advertising campaign two months ago but its sales continue to inch along. It is now in its 11th month of sale and almost half of its float remains to be sold. The same is true for Prestige. Still, the Grand Prizes are there to be claimed for all who are so inclined.

Approximately 8 million tickets were sold last week on all games and a further 86 million remain available for sale.

Top Rated Games 

1. Prestige (49% of float left to sell)
2. Cash In (27%)
3. CFL Family $2 Game (36%)
4. Emerald 7's (25%)
5. CFL Family $1 Game (27%)

Games to Avoid

1. Fat Cat (46%)
2. More Lucky Lines (64%)
3. Bingo Express (94%)
4. QFG Crossword (75%)
5. Mahjong (45%)

$1 - $2 Game Update

Both the $1 and $2 Cash for Life games are highly rated. Don't look beyond those choices.

$3 Game Update

Super Bingo 3013 is showing signs of moving into a territory where one can play the game. The jumbo Quest For Gold Crossword is a poor choice but its tickets are ubiquitous.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Either Cash For Life game is an acceptable choice but Cash In and Emerald 7's are head and shoulders better choices.

$10 - $20 Game Update

No change here. Anything but Classic Gold is a good choice. Even Classic Gold is not that bad but the other three provide more bang for your buck.

Comings and Goings

The poorly rated Cherry Tripler was retired this past week. It had one Grand Prize left to be claimed. There will be no tears for that game.

A new $3 Scrabble Game and $2 Blazing 7's game was introduced this past week. The Blazing 7's game is OK but I'm not thrilled by its modest Grand Prize of $17,777. Of course, there are six of them to be won. The Scrabble game has a good prize distribution and begins its life rated in the middle of the pack of the $3 games. I enjoy playing Scrabble games which means I'll be bound to try some regardless of the rating system.

Personal Play

Five Emerald 7's tickets contained one winner of $14. My Lotto Max ticket was a predictable loser. This week I'll be spreading out over a few games as all of the top five games are very good choices.

Closing Comments

Thanks for all the comments on the blog. There are some very entertaining stories there and I encourage readers to take a peek.

One poster asked how I know how many tickets are left to be sold for each game. I have written about this before and it is the most common question that I receive. I have explained what I do in the response to the question. To be clear - I am not privy to any more information than anyone else. I use what the OLG provides publicly to estimate the remaining float numbers. I am confident that the estimates will be very close to being correct in almost all cases. I am going to pull out an old statistics text book to see how I can establish mathematically the soundness of the method. That should put some readers to sleep.

Best to all.

Doug