Scrabble Retired - Crossword #3212 Resumes Top Spot

Last week saw the end of the top game with Scrabble being retired with only an estimated 7% of its float left. Resuming the top spot is Crossword #3212 that only has 5% of its float left. This game's time at the top will be very limited. The game has only one Grand Prize of $50,000 left so be very careful when buying to ensure that the prize remains outstanding. The game has a Top Prize ration of 1.86 which is the best of any game. The game is not great with the chance to win a prize greater than the cost of the ticket of 1 in 6.93. The game offers 56.1% of its revenue returned to winners of $30 or less. Your odds to snag the Gran Prize are 665,000:1 and your chances to win $100 or more are 5325:1.





Top Rated Games

1. Crossword #3212 - its light is fading.
2. Keno #1417 - new version may make this one harder to find.
3. Lucky Dragon #1843 - 1 of 3 Grand Prizes left and 15% of its float.
4. Golden 7's #1824 - it's rare to get a $2 game this highly rated.
5. Fruit Explosion #1866 - the golden era of $3 games continues.

Games to Avoid

1. Lucky Lines #1826 - terrible game, no sales, why?
2. Jackpot #1857 - retire this game, OLG. What's the hold up?
3. Hit 100 #1849 - save your dollar.
4. Bingo Doubler #1850 - 2 or 15 Grand Prizes remain and 1/3 of the float!
5. Quest For Gold Crossword #3213 - sorry Olympians - it's a dud!

Games Devoid of Grand Prizes

• Lucky Lines
• Jackpot

Best Grand Prize Games*

1. Wild 10's
2. Extreme Millions
3. Golden Treasure
4. Money Multiplier
5. 7-11-21

* I took CL66's list of grand prizes and divided the odds of winning into the dollar value of the grand prize. i then divided that number by the cost of the ticket. The result is the best dollar for dollar value play for the available grand prizes.

Comings and Goings

A remarkable five new games came on line this past week. Two of the games (Keno and Bingo) do not have game sheets yet. The other three games were $10 Platinum, $5 Black Pearls, and $3 More Lucky Lines.

Lucky lines provides a lot of differing prizes for $3. If I have any complaint about Triple Platinum it would be that the game offers more Grand Prizes than either the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th prizes. I prefer a pyramid structure of prizes. It would bug me to win $5000 knowing that it was three times as unlikely as winning the $500,000 Grand Prize.

Our top game, Scrabble, was retired. No surprise.

Personal Play

Nothing to report.

Post Script

I received a comment last week from a friend about the ineffectiveness of the ticket checkers. That struck a chord with me. Why are they so frustrating. Another posted informed us that Alberta has "An App For That". Could it be that the OLG is looking to sell the Instant Ticket part of their business and until they do they intend to make no further investments? Comments welcome.

I noticed in the North Bay Nugget that city council is now having second thoughts about signing up for a casino. A game of cat and mouse is taking place with the OLG who is saying the right things but you know they must be gritting their teeth. There are other communities in the zone that may be interested but the OLG and any future operator only want the major community in the zone, and that is North Bay. Interesting to watch.

Also of note was the winner of $50,000 in Shanty Bay. I'm sure that is Shanty Bay's second large win. I remember looking it up on Mapquest previously.

Good luck to all.

Doug

Scrabble #1861 Leapfrogs To The Top

 It's been a full month since my last post. I am still dealing with the aftermath of the B&E that cost me my computer. I'm presently out of the country and I won't be buying a new one until I return. Hence, I am using an old Acer Notebook with lots of unsupported software. If this post looks wonky, it's for that reason.

Not much has changed since the last post - the top two games remain on top, just in reverse order. Both are working with extremely low float estimates (7% and 5%) and will likely be dropped from next weeks update. If you can find any of either of the top two games, scoop them up.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Scrabble #1861 - Back on top.
2. $3 Crossword #3212 - took a hit but is still worth a try.
3. $3 Fruit Explosion #1866 - best game available with a sizable float left to sell.
4. $3 Keno #1417 - A good choice if you like that kind of game.
5. $3 Lucky Dragon #1843 - It's the era of the $3 game.

Games to Avoid

1. $1 Lucky Lines #1826 - what else is new?
2. $5 Jackpot #1857 - all top prizes claimed - BEWARE!
3. $1 Hit 100 #1849 - buy some Tic-Tacs instead of this stinker.
4. $3 QFG Crossword #3212 - jumbo game is a stinker. Oh-oh.
5. $5 Bingo Doubler #1856 - behind the 8 ball.

Games Devoid of Grand Prizes

• Jackpot
• Lucky Lines

Comings and Goings

Red Hot 50's was mercifully KO'd. Three new games were introduced: $5 High Roller, $3 Pac Man Slots, and $5 Instant Tripler.

We need a good $5 game to play so I hope that one of the new ones manages to move its way up the list. The Pac-Man slots game has lots of ways to win for your $3 ticket. Usually the OLG makes you pay $5 to enjoy such possibilities. High Roller is interesting in that the highest prize one can win (other than the Grand Prize) is $2000. You'd think that would translate into a higher cash rate with more plentiful smaller prizes. It doesn't. Still, for a guy whose biggest cash was $75, I'll take the $2000. Will study this game more closely to see what's up.

Personal Play

Nothing to report. Out of country.

Post Script

Lots of bits to report on since the last update.

CL66 reports that the BC Lottery Corporation is still selling Classic White. The game has not been available in Ontario for the past month as all the Grand Prizes had been claimed. Kudos to the OLG for its decision and a big raspberry to their compatriots in BC. Maybe the price of housing theory contributor can theorize on the situation.

A story on unclaimed winning tickets by the CBC. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/unclaimed-lottery-wins-1.3461990 . I would suggest that they add the winning and unsold Grand Prize scratch tickets to their accounting ledger. There is a good post from Randy on March 26th on the subject. Malikeh also posted about DART. I'm impressed by the work that unit does. They were featured on a CBC news show a couple of years back. The subject was the unclaimed lottery winner that they tracked down. Impressive.

Thanks to Benjoi for actually posting a video of him scratching a winning ticket. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d4u7DH_795A . Way better than that fake one from a couple of months ago that featured some charlaton scratching a $200,000 winner. A lesson from Benjoi as to how he did so would be appreciated.

Good news that the Dresdan Harness Track will continue to operate for at least the next five years. The OLG's latest promoted hire is Elissa Blowe. She was a one woman Communications Shop at Fort Erie. I'm certain that her experience in that setting will be a great asset to these little tracks. Dresdan only operates 11 days a year. It's impossible to have lofty plans with that small of an operation. Good luck to Elissa.

I close with a reminder to all readers that the OLG Slots workers at Rideau-Carlton are still locked out. No doubt a broken union of workers is worth more to the future owners than a union of people making a reasonable wage.

Doug




 

Crossword #3212 Remains Aloft

The top rated game went through almost 300,000 tickets this week and all three of the remaining Grand Prizes remain available. Your odds of winning a $50,000 Grand Prize are one in 363,000. Twenty percent of the Top Prize money remains outstanding with only 7% of the tickets available for sale. Normally, this would place the game in the "hard to find" category but with an initial float of 15 million and no sister version of the game also on sale, I'm thinking that you should still be able to find these tickets without much difficulty.

The game has a small prize return rate ( prizes up to $30) of 56.1% which is the fifth best of any game currently for sale. Apart from the three $50,000 prizes there is also 1 of 9 $25,000 prizes and 1 of 6 $10,000 prizes  outstanding.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Crossword #3212 - Best Top Prize ratio. 
2. $3 Scrabble #1861 - Climbing back up the ratings; only 1 Grand Prize left. 
3. $3 Fruit Explosion #1866 - Selling like hot cakes and looking good. 
4. $30 Golden Treasure #1782 - Top small prize return ratio. But, $30? Gulp. 
5. $3 Keno #1417 - Well positioned to move up. 

Games to Avoid

1. $1 Lucky Lines #1826 - Why do I dislike this family of games so much?
2. $1 Red Hot 50's #1827 - 1,647 $50 Prizes outstanding. That's all I can say. 
3. $1 Hit 100 #1849 - Not the best of times for $1 games.
4. $4 Cash For Life #1171 - a one in 2 million chance to win a GP. Waiting.....
5. $5 Cross Tripler #1846 - Lost 2 Grand Prizes this past week. 

Games Devoid of Grand Prizes

• Lucky Lines

Comings and Goings

New for play this week is the $2 Double Dollar. The game sheet has yet to be posted so I will reserve my commentary for next week. Retired this week is the Interprovincial game Classic White. The game had been listing for some time and was devoid of Grand Prizes for a few weeks. Tough to pay $10 for a super Grand Prize of which there are none available. There were still over 2.5 million tickets available for sale at its point of demise. Definitely not a winner for the OLG and its sister organizations. I wonder if it has been retired in all other jurisdictions?

Overall, eight Grand Prizes were won this past week. That's a high number. The biggest sellers (relative to their float size were Fruit Explosion and 7 11 21, each of which sold 9% of their respective floats. Each game remains readily available.

Personal Play

Nothing to report.

Post Script

We weathered the storm of our common critic. There were calls to delete his comments and I came very close to doing so. Thanks to those who posted thoughtful responses to his insulting commentary. Somewhere within his insults were some comments that deserved to be expressed. The poster is going to have a tough life if that is how he intends to influence people. Folks that angry south of border are likely the ones supporting Mr. Trump.

I received a message while preparing this entry from a reader asking the following:

For the Keno scratch tickets. I’m convinced that every number scratched is at least somewhere on the

game at least once and at most twice. My friend thinks she’s had games where the number was nowhere

on the game board.

The question delves into the area of the algorithm used by the supplier. For Keno, my sense is that numbers can appear more than once and can not appear at all but I have not measured that with any precision. Comments are welcomed.

Thanks to CL66 for posting his "OLG Insider" information. I am always interested in the retailer comments. I am of the view that focus group comments can have a significant impact on the decisions taken by an organization. A customer could call or write to the OLG repeatedly about a point without result. Your views would be ground into dust by the Customer Service machinery. Seeing the same comment on this report would have much more impact so I would encourage readers to make any views that you have known to your local retailer. Who knows, maybe you'll see them on the next report.

This week's article comes from the staid publication, Canadian Lawyer Magazine:
http://www.canadianlawyermag.com/5942/Ontarios-big-gaming-gamble.html .

I have ranted about the OLG's Modernization Plan many times before. It's interesting to see how business planning works. The OLG puts together a report with myriad assumptions and concludes that by selling off all of its assets it will return an additional $1 billion to the Provincial coffers annually. When the assumptions all prove to be false it's too late to reverse course. The OLG can then fall back on changing conditions as its excuse. The truth is that the OLG wanted to privatize its operation. As simple as that. I would respect them more if they had just said so instead of trying to mask the medicine with clap trap.

The last shoe will fall when the new casinos operated by the private corporations begins to establish returns. The OLG currently earns 75% of the profit on its operations. In the "Modernized" world a private company will invest in plant and, of course, be entitled to a reasonable profit. The risk will be taken by the Province. Its share of the pie will be reduced to 40-45%. The assumption is that 40% of a larger pie will be greater than 75% of a smaller pie. We shall see. My question is, "Who has skin in the game?" Certainly not the authors of the plan and that is disturbing.

Happy March to all.


Doug

Scrabble Loses Grand Prize - Crossword #3212 Takes Over Top Spot

With the loss of one of its two Grand Prizes, Scrabble #1861 drops into second place. Replacing it on top is Crossword #3212. This is a jumbo game with an original float of almost 15 million tickets. Only an estimated 9% of that float remains (+/- 2%) but that translates into 1.4 million tickets so you should be able to find them in your local area. Three of the original 9 $50,000 tickets remain to be claimed. Also available to be won are 2 of 9 Second Prizes, 1 of six Third Prizes, and 1 of four Fourth Prizes. That's pretty good availability for a game whose days are running short.

On the downside, only 1 in every 4.25 tickets is a winner (4th worst) and one in 6.93 is worth more than the price of the ticket (8th worst). Regardless, the top prize money imbalance places this game well on top of the list.

  

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Crossword #3212 - Very positive Top Prize imbalance. 
2. $3 Scrabble #1861 - Available tickets getting scarce. Only one GP left. 
3. $3 Keno #1417 - Best game with wide availability.
4. $3 Fruit Explosion #1866 - Good game and selling rapidly.
5. $30 250 Golden #1782 - Best of the expensive games. 

Games to Avoid

1. $10 Classic White #1844 - A stinker and still 2.5 Million tickets left. Beware!
2. $1 Red Hot 50's #1827 - Terrible choice. 
3. $1 Lucky Lines #1826 - Forget it. 
4. $1 Hit 100 #1849 - The best of the worst.
5. $4 Cash For Life #1171 - Half the Grand Prizes left and 3/4 of the tickets to sell. 

Games Devoid of Grand Prizes

• Classic White

Comings and Goings

Tripling 7's was retired this week - thankfully. Only 10% of the float remained and all the Grand Prizes had been claimed. The game was ranked 20th of the 25 games for sale.

No new games were introduced. The overall Top Prize money availability sits at 99.8% and there are 100 million tickets available for sale.

Personal Play

Nothing to report.

Post Script

Here's the kind of guy I liked to see get lucky: http://www.intelligencer.ca/2016/02/19/roblin-man-scratches-100000-win .

Here is OLG news concerning the extension of the second chance prizes for Instant Bingo. https://bingocontest.olg.ca/ec/webversion.aspx?i=63e495f1-0bd5-44bf-893f-61c3c9693035
I always wondered why they added this little feature and why they have extended it. Any wisdom from readers?

And lastly, an article from Niagara This Week wherein the Mayor of Niagara Falls is expressing concern about the impact that the Woodbine expansion will have on the Niagara Falls Casinos. http://www.niagarathisweek.com/news-story/6327690-woodbine-theatre-a-cause-for-concern-diodati/ . Of course it will impact! I have little doubt that a significant percentage of Niagara's business comes from Toronto. As soon as table games are added and a concert hall built, the bleeding away from Niagara will begin in earnest.

Best to all.


Doug

Scrabble #1861 Retains Its Top Billing

I finally got around to tweaking my evaluation formula to address the weakness that the new $30 game presented. One of the factors in the formula is the number of "small" prizes for any game. I defined a "small" prize as anything less than $100. This definition discriminated against the $30 game as it only has a relative small percentage of prizes valued at less than $100. I changed the definition, henceforth, as being anything up to 10X the cost of the ticket. This definition treats all games equally.  The result is evident as the Golden Treasure game is now the 4th rated game available for purchase.

The top rated game remains Scrabble #1861. It sold 3% of its float last week (87,000 tickets) leaving an estimated 450,000 tickets to sell. With two Grand Prizes left to claim, your chances are one in 250,000 which is the best of any game with the exception of those games with many small Grand Prizes. The strength of the game comes from the fact that only 196 of 1362 Top Prizes remain to be claimed, however, those 196 prizes represent $191,280 of the $543,380 that the 1362 original Top Prizes represented. That is over 2X higher than one would expect.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Scrabble #1861 - Excellent Top Prize imbalance. 
2. $3 Crossword #3212 - 5th best small prize availability and 2nd best Top Prize imbalance. 
3. $3 Keno #1417 - 3rd best but a big gap between this game and the top two. 
4. $30 250 Golden #1782 - Can you stomach a $30 loser? It's a good choice. 
5. $3 Fruit Explosion #1866 - New game is selling well and moving up. 

Games to Avoid

1. $5 Tripling 7's #1858 - NO grand prizes but the OLG milks it as the Grand Prize is < $100k.
2. $10 Classic White #1858 - NO Grand Prizes - only 1 of the top 17 Prizes left. Stinker. 
3. $1 Red Hot 50's #1827 - "We'll take your dollar, if you insist" - OLG President
4. $1 Lucky Lines #1827 - 1 of 4 Grand Prizes left and 36% of the float. 
5. $1 Hot 100 #1849 - three $1 games available and they're all bad. 

Games Devoid of Grand Prizes

• Tripling 7's
• Classic White

Comings and Goings

Crossword #3210 was retired this past week. It was a jumbo game that stayed in play for a long time, running its float all the way down to 5%, which is very low. Still, it was the 8th rated game at the time of its demise.

No new games to report.

There were three Grand Prizes claimed this past week: QFG Crossword lost its first, Money Multiplier lost its second of 7, and Diamond lost its fifth of 12. There are presently an estimated 108 million tickets left for sale which is normal. The total Top Prize money available is 2.7% less than what should be expected.

Personal Play

Nothing to report.

Post Script

Randy commented this past week on the OLG's effort to publicize its Play Smart program. The following quote was included in their release: "We don’t send winning tickets to specific locations, and there is no secret formula for picking winning numbers."

I don't want to re-open old debates but why can't they say that the distribution of winning tickets is completely random? The way they have stated it leaves open the possibility that although a winning ticket is not sent to a specific location it may be sent to a defined zone, such as Eastern Ontario.

This week's story comes from the venerable Toronto Sun:
http://www.torontosun.com/2016/02/16/new-complex-planned-for-woodbine-racetrack-site

This is another chapter in a long tale. In my opinion, it was the reaction of the Woodbine Entertainment Group (WEG) that got the ball rolling to try and kill horse racing in Ontario. It's nigh impossible to figure out who actually owns WEG and when the Ontario Government came to them to talk about slots money and how it was being spent, WEG told them to take a hike. This resulted in the Ontario Government pulling the rug out from underneath their corpulent posteriors. After much yelping and invoking the interests of the "little" people ,whose interests are actually all that should matter, the Ontario Government made the OLG responsible for the welfare of the racing industry. This led to the departure of some senior staff and the hiring of a new vice-president responsible for the file. It has been a slowly developing marriage as the OLG was counting on all of that Slots money to underwrite their "Modernization" plan.

Toronto City Council rejected a casino for the downtown which was not expected by the OLG and only on a second go round did they approve an expansion at Woodbine. Now we see the plans for what amounts to a destination casino. This is the very concept that Frank Stronach proposed years ago but the old boys ran him out of town for being too progressive. My only caution to WEG is that if they're using OLG forecasting as a base for making business decisions, I'd advise getting a second opinion. One thing is for sure; if Woodbine doubles its customer base after the upgrade, it will come at the expense of the communities around Toronto such as Niagara Falls and Rama (Orillia). Woodbine will cannibalize those places and that's something that the OLG failed to mention while they were arm twisting municipalities into approving their respective location for a casino. Still, if you live in Toronto, what's not to like?

One last shout out to Darth who appears to be a college basketball guru. Think I'll ask him to put in my picks for this year's March Madness pool.

Doug

Scrabble #1861 Ascends the Throne

The pursuit of the elusive CFL 1161 ran aground as many posters predicted. The OLG is the proud winner of the $675,000. Replacing it is #1861 Scrabble. This game rates well as two of its three Grand Prizes remain to be claimed with only an estimated 17% of its float left to sell. That is still slightly over 1 million tickets so you should be able to find the game at your local retailer. A warning that all of the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place prizes have been claimed. There are three $5000 prizes left in addition to the two $75,000 prizes.

Also on the plus side, the game offers one cash in every 3.33 tickets which is the best of any game. On the downside, 12.9% of total revenue is returned to folks who "win" the cost of the ticket. That is the second highest of any game.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Scrabble #1861 - Strong numbers. 
2. $3 Crossword #3210 - Only 5% of float left. 
3. $3 Crossword #3212 - Both Crossword's are good choices. 
4. $3 Keno #1417 - 4 of 5 Grand Prizes left and only 60% of the float. 
5. $10 Diamond #1781 - The best of the expensive games.

Games to Avoid

1. $1 Red Hot 50's - Save your $1 for a person who needs it. 
2. $1 Hit 100 - Another terrible choice. 
3. $10 Classic White - Max prize is $1000 other than one $50k prize. For $10!!!
4. $4 Cash For Life #1171 - not like its sister version. 
5. $2 Golden 7's #1824 - Bad numbers across the board.

Game Devoid of Grand Prizes

• Tripling 7's
• Classic White

Comings and Goings

It was clean-out week at the OLG. All five Christmas games were retired in addition to More Lucky Lines and Cash For Life. Both Instant Gift Pack and Spectacular went down with over 20% of their respective floats left to sell. Each had one Grand Prize left to yield.

New on the scene  is 7,11,21. See CL66's review. I rate it 14th of the 26 games which is right about where new games should start: in the middle. The game looks like it has potential to me. The only thing I don't like is that you have a better chance to win the Grand Prize than you do either the  second or third prize. I prefer games whose prize structure looks like a pyramid.

Three Grand Prizes were claimed this past week. One each for: Money Multiplier, Tripling 7's, and 250 Golden. We're all watching to see if the GTA snags another Grand Prize in that game.

Personal Play

Nothing to report

Post Script

Differing points of view from two communities on the prospect of a casino:
http://www.nugget.ca/2016/02/08/casino-needs-sober-second-look
http://tvo.org/article/current-affairs/the-next-ontario/thousand-islands-olgs-big-plans-for-gananoque-

From the articles I have read, the projected revenue increases outlined in the OLG's vaunted "Modernization Report" are failing to materialize. If that continues, who will be responsible? Certainly not Misters Godfrey and Phillips who are, at this very moment, busy gutting the Ottawa Citizen to the glee of the US Hedge Funds that own it.

My last item for this week was a press release from the OLG that wasn't picked up by any outlet that I could find: http://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/olg-wants-you-to-play-smart-568035791.html .

The OLG likes to describe itself as "A global leader in responsible gaming." Who recognizes them as such, you ask? Why, the association of casino operators. Really? How about outsourcing Play Smart initiatives to NGO groups likes the Responsible Gaming Council? If you can outsource all of the casinos, why not that?

My research into Break Open tickets continues. Stay tuned.

Doug

Cash For Life #1167 - One Last Gasp

The piddly 14,000 tickets sold last week only hit one $100 prize and one $120 prize. There cannot be but a handful of loose tickets left for sale at this point. With a 35% profit per ticket and building in 30% cost of production/distribution etc, the OLG stood to make $144,000 by selling every last ticket. But somewhere in OLG headquarters sits a nice little $675,000 bonus for them. I know, I'm beating an old drum, but the whole situation does not sit well with me. It's like a giant pinata game and we're the blindfolded participants swinging wildly to find the mark, but there is no pinata. If you're lucky enough to find any tickets, scoop em up.


 

Top Rated Games

1. $4 Cash For Life #1167 - almost no hope.
2. $3 Crossword #3210 - only 5% of float left but that's one million tickets. 
3. $3 Scrabble #1861 - well rated on all factors and tickets should be available. 
4. $3 Crossword #3212 - best small prize return of any game.
5. $3 Keno #1417 - Very similar numbers to Crossword #3212. 

Games to Avoid

1. $1 Red Hot 50's #1827 - Wanna win $2? That's about all you can hope for. 
2. $2 Polar Bear #1862 - devoid of grand prizes, second worst Top Prize ratio.
3. $1 Hit 100 #1849 - A terrible way to waste a dollar. 
4. $10 Classic White #1844 - Devoid of Grand Prizes but 1/3 of the float remains. Very interesting.
5. $4 Cash For Life #1171 - don't buy one of these because you can't find any 1167's. 

Games Devoid of Grand Prizes

• Polar Bear
• Classic White
• More Lucky Lines

Comings And Goings

The OLG added three games this past week: $2 Walking Dead (rated 22nd of 32), $3 Fruit Explosion (rated 16th of 32) and $3 Quest For Gold Crossword (rated 12th of 32). The latter game offers a jumbo 26 million ticket float and should keep us running right up to the Olympics. I wonder how much of the money raised by this game goes to Olympic Athletes?

No games were retired which has the effect of bumping the total tickets for sale up to almost 120 million. That's a lot.

Personal Play

Nothing to report.

Post Script

Without much to report upon I always find it interesting to learn about other people's play. I have a friend who plays Pro-Line and always reinvests his profits in Scratch Tickets. He then saves all of the Scratch Tickets that he bought over the course of the year and he and his family scratch them all on Christmas morning. This year he had slightly over 100 tickets to scratch and managed to turn them into $200.

Someone mentioned several months ago about Breakout Tickets. I never really thought much about them but I intend to do some research on them over the course of the next week.

Cheers to all.

Doug