Scrabble Loses Grand Prize - Crossword #3212 Takes Over Top Spot

With the loss of one of its two Grand Prizes, Scrabble #1861 drops into second place. Replacing it on top is Crossword #3212. This is a jumbo game with an original float of almost 15 million tickets. Only an estimated 9% of that float remains (+/- 2%) but that translates into 1.4 million tickets so you should be able to find them in your local area. Three of the original 9 $50,000 tickets remain to be claimed. Also available to be won are 2 of 9 Second Prizes, 1 of six Third Prizes, and 1 of four Fourth Prizes. That's pretty good availability for a game whose days are running short.

On the downside, only 1 in every 4.25 tickets is a winner (4th worst) and one in 6.93 is worth more than the price of the ticket (8th worst). Regardless, the top prize money imbalance places this game well on top of the list.

  

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Crossword #3212 - Very positive Top Prize imbalance. 
2. $3 Scrabble #1861 - Available tickets getting scarce. Only one GP left. 
3. $3 Keno #1417 - Best game with wide availability.
4. $3 Fruit Explosion #1866 - Good game and selling rapidly.
5. $30 250 Golden #1782 - Best of the expensive games. 

Games to Avoid

1. $10 Classic White #1844 - A stinker and still 2.5 Million tickets left. Beware!
2. $1 Red Hot 50's #1827 - Terrible choice. 
3. $1 Lucky Lines #1826 - Forget it. 
4. $1 Hit 100 #1849 - The best of the worst.
5. $4 Cash For Life #1171 - Half the Grand Prizes left and 3/4 of the tickets to sell. 

Games Devoid of Grand Prizes

• Classic White

Comings and Goings

Tripling 7's was retired this week - thankfully. Only 10% of the float remained and all the Grand Prizes had been claimed. The game was ranked 20th of the 25 games for sale.

No new games were introduced. The overall Top Prize money availability sits at 99.8% and there are 100 million tickets available for sale.

Personal Play

Nothing to report.

Post Script

Here's the kind of guy I liked to see get lucky: http://www.intelligencer.ca/2016/02/19/roblin-man-scratches-100000-win .

Here is OLG news concerning the extension of the second chance prizes for Instant Bingo. https://bingocontest.olg.ca/ec/webversion.aspx?i=63e495f1-0bd5-44bf-893f-61c3c9693035
I always wondered why they added this little feature and why they have extended it. Any wisdom from readers?

And lastly, an article from Niagara This Week wherein the Mayor of Niagara Falls is expressing concern about the impact that the Woodbine expansion will have on the Niagara Falls Casinos. http://www.niagarathisweek.com/news-story/6327690-woodbine-theatre-a-cause-for-concern-diodati/ . Of course it will impact! I have little doubt that a significant percentage of Niagara's business comes from Toronto. As soon as table games are added and a concert hall built, the bleeding away from Niagara will begin in earnest.

Best to all.


Doug

Scrabble #1861 Retains Its Top Billing

I finally got around to tweaking my evaluation formula to address the weakness that the new $30 game presented. One of the factors in the formula is the number of "small" prizes for any game. I defined a "small" prize as anything less than $100. This definition discriminated against the $30 game as it only has a relative small percentage of prizes valued at less than $100. I changed the definition, henceforth, as being anything up to 10X the cost of the ticket. This definition treats all games equally.  The result is evident as the Golden Treasure game is now the 4th rated game available for purchase.

The top rated game remains Scrabble #1861. It sold 3% of its float last week (87,000 tickets) leaving an estimated 450,000 tickets to sell. With two Grand Prizes left to claim, your chances are one in 250,000 which is the best of any game with the exception of those games with many small Grand Prizes. The strength of the game comes from the fact that only 196 of 1362 Top Prizes remain to be claimed, however, those 196 prizes represent $191,280 of the $543,380 that the 1362 original Top Prizes represented. That is over 2X higher than one would expect.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Scrabble #1861 - Excellent Top Prize imbalance. 
2. $3 Crossword #3212 - 5th best small prize availability and 2nd best Top Prize imbalance. 
3. $3 Keno #1417 - 3rd best but a big gap between this game and the top two. 
4. $30 250 Golden #1782 - Can you stomach a $30 loser? It's a good choice. 
5. $3 Fruit Explosion #1866 - New game is selling well and moving up. 

Games to Avoid

1. $5 Tripling 7's #1858 - NO grand prizes but the OLG milks it as the Grand Prize is < $100k.
2. $10 Classic White #1858 - NO Grand Prizes - only 1 of the top 17 Prizes left. Stinker. 
3. $1 Red Hot 50's #1827 - "We'll take your dollar, if you insist" - OLG President
4. $1 Lucky Lines #1827 - 1 of 4 Grand Prizes left and 36% of the float. 
5. $1 Hot 100 #1849 - three $1 games available and they're all bad. 

Games Devoid of Grand Prizes

• Tripling 7's
• Classic White

Comings and Goings

Crossword #3210 was retired this past week. It was a jumbo game that stayed in play for a long time, running its float all the way down to 5%, which is very low. Still, it was the 8th rated game at the time of its demise.

No new games to report.

There were three Grand Prizes claimed this past week: QFG Crossword lost its first, Money Multiplier lost its second of 7, and Diamond lost its fifth of 12. There are presently an estimated 108 million tickets left for sale which is normal. The total Top Prize money available is 2.7% less than what should be expected.

Personal Play

Nothing to report.

Post Script

Randy commented this past week on the OLG's effort to publicize its Play Smart program. The following quote was included in their release: "We don’t send winning tickets to specific locations, and there is no secret formula for picking winning numbers."

I don't want to re-open old debates but why can't they say that the distribution of winning tickets is completely random? The way they have stated it leaves open the possibility that although a winning ticket is not sent to a specific location it may be sent to a defined zone, such as Eastern Ontario.

This week's story comes from the venerable Toronto Sun:
http://www.torontosun.com/2016/02/16/new-complex-planned-for-woodbine-racetrack-site

This is another chapter in a long tale. In my opinion, it was the reaction of the Woodbine Entertainment Group (WEG) that got the ball rolling to try and kill horse racing in Ontario. It's nigh impossible to figure out who actually owns WEG and when the Ontario Government came to them to talk about slots money and how it was being spent, WEG told them to take a hike. This resulted in the Ontario Government pulling the rug out from underneath their corpulent posteriors. After much yelping and invoking the interests of the "little" people ,whose interests are actually all that should matter, the Ontario Government made the OLG responsible for the welfare of the racing industry. This led to the departure of some senior staff and the hiring of a new vice-president responsible for the file. It has been a slowly developing marriage as the OLG was counting on all of that Slots money to underwrite their "Modernization" plan.

Toronto City Council rejected a casino for the downtown which was not expected by the OLG and only on a second go round did they approve an expansion at Woodbine. Now we see the plans for what amounts to a destination casino. This is the very concept that Frank Stronach proposed years ago but the old boys ran him out of town for being too progressive. My only caution to WEG is that if they're using OLG forecasting as a base for making business decisions, I'd advise getting a second opinion. One thing is for sure; if Woodbine doubles its customer base after the upgrade, it will come at the expense of the communities around Toronto such as Niagara Falls and Rama (Orillia). Woodbine will cannibalize those places and that's something that the OLG failed to mention while they were arm twisting municipalities into approving their respective location for a casino. Still, if you live in Toronto, what's not to like?

One last shout out to Darth who appears to be a college basketball guru. Think I'll ask him to put in my picks for this year's March Madness pool.

Doug

Scrabble #1861 Ascends the Throne

The pursuit of the elusive CFL 1161 ran aground as many posters predicted. The OLG is the proud winner of the $675,000. Replacing it is #1861 Scrabble. This game rates well as two of its three Grand Prizes remain to be claimed with only an estimated 17% of its float left to sell. That is still slightly over 1 million tickets so you should be able to find the game at your local retailer. A warning that all of the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place prizes have been claimed. There are three $5000 prizes left in addition to the two $75,000 prizes.

Also on the plus side, the game offers one cash in every 3.33 tickets which is the best of any game. On the downside, 12.9% of total revenue is returned to folks who "win" the cost of the ticket. That is the second highest of any game.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Scrabble #1861 - Strong numbers. 
2. $3 Crossword #3210 - Only 5% of float left. 
3. $3 Crossword #3212 - Both Crossword's are good choices. 
4. $3 Keno #1417 - 4 of 5 Grand Prizes left and only 60% of the float. 
5. $10 Diamond #1781 - The best of the expensive games.

Games to Avoid

1. $1 Red Hot 50's - Save your $1 for a person who needs it. 
2. $1 Hit 100 - Another terrible choice. 
3. $10 Classic White - Max prize is $1000 other than one $50k prize. For $10!!!
4. $4 Cash For Life #1171 - not like its sister version. 
5. $2 Golden 7's #1824 - Bad numbers across the board.

Game Devoid of Grand Prizes

• Tripling 7's
• Classic White

Comings and Goings

It was clean-out week at the OLG. All five Christmas games were retired in addition to More Lucky Lines and Cash For Life. Both Instant Gift Pack and Spectacular went down with over 20% of their respective floats left to sell. Each had one Grand Prize left to yield.

New on the scene  is 7,11,21. See CL66's review. I rate it 14th of the 26 games which is right about where new games should start: in the middle. The game looks like it has potential to me. The only thing I don't like is that you have a better chance to win the Grand Prize than you do either the  second or third prize. I prefer games whose prize structure looks like a pyramid.

Three Grand Prizes were claimed this past week. One each for: Money Multiplier, Tripling 7's, and 250 Golden. We're all watching to see if the GTA snags another Grand Prize in that game.

Personal Play

Nothing to report

Post Script

Differing points of view from two communities on the prospect of a casino:
http://www.nugget.ca/2016/02/08/casino-needs-sober-second-look
http://tvo.org/article/current-affairs/the-next-ontario/thousand-islands-olgs-big-plans-for-gananoque-

From the articles I have read, the projected revenue increases outlined in the OLG's vaunted "Modernization Report" are failing to materialize. If that continues, who will be responsible? Certainly not Misters Godfrey and Phillips who are, at this very moment, busy gutting the Ottawa Citizen to the glee of the US Hedge Funds that own it.

My last item for this week was a press release from the OLG that wasn't picked up by any outlet that I could find: http://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/olg-wants-you-to-play-smart-568035791.html .

The OLG likes to describe itself as "A global leader in responsible gaming." Who recognizes them as such, you ask? Why, the association of casino operators. Really? How about outsourcing Play Smart initiatives to NGO groups likes the Responsible Gaming Council? If you can outsource all of the casinos, why not that?

My research into Break Open tickets continues. Stay tuned.

Doug

Cash For Life #1167 - One Last Gasp

The piddly 14,000 tickets sold last week only hit one $100 prize and one $120 prize. There cannot be but a handful of loose tickets left for sale at this point. With a 35% profit per ticket and building in 30% cost of production/distribution etc, the OLG stood to make $144,000 by selling every last ticket. But somewhere in OLG headquarters sits a nice little $675,000 bonus for them. I know, I'm beating an old drum, but the whole situation does not sit well with me. It's like a giant pinata game and we're the blindfolded participants swinging wildly to find the mark, but there is no pinata. If you're lucky enough to find any tickets, scoop em up.


 

Top Rated Games

1. $4 Cash For Life #1167 - almost no hope.
2. $3 Crossword #3210 - only 5% of float left but that's one million tickets. 
3. $3 Scrabble #1861 - well rated on all factors and tickets should be available. 
4. $3 Crossword #3212 - best small prize return of any game.
5. $3 Keno #1417 - Very similar numbers to Crossword #3212. 

Games to Avoid

1. $1 Red Hot 50's #1827 - Wanna win $2? That's about all you can hope for. 
2. $2 Polar Bear #1862 - devoid of grand prizes, second worst Top Prize ratio.
3. $1 Hit 100 #1849 - A terrible way to waste a dollar. 
4. $10 Classic White #1844 - Devoid of Grand Prizes but 1/3 of the float remains. Very interesting.
5. $4 Cash For Life #1171 - don't buy one of these because you can't find any 1167's. 

Games Devoid of Grand Prizes

• Polar Bear
• Classic White
• More Lucky Lines

Comings And Goings

The OLG added three games this past week: $2 Walking Dead (rated 22nd of 32), $3 Fruit Explosion (rated 16th of 32) and $3 Quest For Gold Crossword (rated 12th of 32). The latter game offers a jumbo 26 million ticket float and should keep us running right up to the Olympics. I wonder how much of the money raised by this game goes to Olympic Athletes?

No games were retired which has the effect of bumping the total tickets for sale up to almost 120 million. That's a lot.

Personal Play

Nothing to report.

Post Script

Without much to report upon I always find it interesting to learn about other people's play. I have a friend who plays Pro-Line and always reinvests his profits in Scratch Tickets. He then saves all of the Scratch Tickets that he bought over the course of the year and he and his family scratch them all on Christmas morning. This year he had slightly over 100 tickets to scratch and managed to turn them into $200.

Someone mentioned several months ago about Breakout Tickets. I never really thought much about them but I intend to do some research on them over the course of the next week.

Cheers to all.

Doug