Crossword #3209 Overtakes Scrabble to Claim the Top Spot

Although Scrabble #3209 only has an estimated 10% of its float left, that still translates into 2 million tickets out there. The game features the second best return rate on prizes less than $100 and the third best Top Prize ratio. Those two factors combine to edge out the second and third rated games.

Your odds to win the $50,000 Grand Prize is 1 in a million and your chance to win a prize of $100 or more are 1 in 2000. You can expect to cash 1 in every 3.84 tickets and to cash something more than the cost of the ticket 1 in every 6.84 tickets. Those are good numbers for a $3 ticket.

 

*** Note***
Because Crossword #3210 is also for sale, I can't find an image of #3209 that I can copy into the blog. Version 3209 is a YELLOW ticket. If you want the game and can't find a yellow ticket, don't worry. Version 3210 is currently the 6th rated game.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Crossword #3209 
2. $3 Scrabble #1835 - Dethroned former champ still a good choice.
3. $1 Bingo Express #1823 - 20% of float left and 2 of 4 Grand Prizes. 
4. $5 Cross Tripler #1830 - Best chance to have a winning ticket that you think is a loser!
5. $3 Super Bingo #3018 - Tommy's kind of game - great small prize availability. 

Games To Avoid

1. $1 5X The Money #1838 - burn them, if you can.
2. $1 Red Hot 50's #1827 - Begins life as a stinker. It's a long way up for this one. 
3. $5 Frenzy #1853 - Victim of my bias. Buy em if you like em. 
4. $2 Fast 200's #1817 - Mini Me version of Frenzy
5. $5 Crystal 7's #1848 - a $5 Game devoid of Grand Prizes. Why does it continue? GP is <$100k.

Games To Play If All You Want Is A Grand Prize

1. 500 Frenzy
2. Red Hot 50s
3. Fast 200s
4. Cash Blast
5. Extreme

Games Devoid Of Grand Prizes

• Sweet Cash
• Crystal 7's
• 5X The Money

Comings and Goings

Tetris was retired with zero grand prizes and 15% (394,000) of its float left. Its run was only 4 months long.

New for gaming pleasure are $1 Red Hot 50's and a replacement for Fortune, $10 Diamond. The former is destined to the stinker list and the latter begins its life in 9th place. The game has good potential. See the comments to last weeks entry for a more detailed review.

Personal Play

My week started off well with $21 worth of cashes on Scrabble and Crossword from 6 tickets. That was the high point of the week as the Cross Tripler and Classic White were both duds. I have purchased 5 Classic Whites to date without any success. I doubt that I'll buy any more. Oh yeah, I lost my obligatory $11 on Lotto Max. One of my lines actually had the first two numbers drawn, in order. But alas, it also turned out to be a loser.

Post Script

The OLG labour dispute continues with appeals now being made to the Premier by affected employees that if she cares so much about the pensions of Ontarians, why is she allowing some of her own employees to lose theirs. Why indeed.

I am in the process of relocating. I expect to be without internet service for a period of time. If I don't post for a while, that is the reason. I'll be back just as soon as I can.

Until then, happy scratching.


Doug

Scrabble #1835 Maintains Its Top Spot

15X The Money was dropped from the Outstanding Prize list this past week leaving Scrabble as the top choice. The top rated game is already long in the tooth with only 13% of its float left (410,000 tickets est.) but tickets are still to be had in my neck of the woods. Crossword #3209 is closing the gap on the top choice and although only 11% of its float remains that represents 2.3 million tickets. The OLG may pull version 3209 as version 3210 is also for sale and fully 89% of its float is left. At my seller, they had 3210 on display with 3209 tickets stashed under the counter. Don't be fooled - it's the 3209 version that you should be searching for.

Scrabble currently offers one chance in 410,000 to win the Grand Prize and one chance in 2307 to win a prize of $100 or more. It has a positive ratio of 1.64 between the money left for Top Prizes and the number of Top Prizes left to be claimed.

Top Rated Games 

1. $3 Scrabble #1835 - Strong choice.
2. $3 Crossword #3209 - Very good small prize availability plus positive ratio. 
3. $1 Bingo Express #1823 - 2 of 4 Grand Prizes left and 21% of the float.
4. $3 Super Bingo #3018 - Top game for small prize availability
5. $5 Cross Tripler #1830 - Strong on all measures

Games to Avoid

1. $1 5X The Money #1838 - Horrible choice
2. $1 Red Hot 50's #1827 - New game begins life at the bottom. 
3. $5 500 Frenzy #1853 - Blog visitors have won three $500 prizes. 
4. $2 Fast 200's #1817 - One chance in 800 to win $200 prize. 
5. $3 Tetris #1832 - Devoid of Grand Prizes

Games to Play If All You Want Is A Grand Prize

1. 500 Frenzy
2. Red Hot 50's
3. Fast 200's
4. Extreme
5. Cash Blast

Games Devoid Of Grand Prizes

• 5X The Money
• Tetris
• Crystal 7's
• Sweet Cash

Comings and Goings

20X The Money and 15X The Money were both retired this past week. We did not care about the former and we mourn the latter.

Red Hot 50's and Wild Card were introduced. Red Hot 50's has nothing to recommend but it is a $1 game. Wild Card has lots of ways to win and an excellent 1 chance in 545 to win $100 or more.

Personal Play

Two Classic Whites returned nothing. Two Crossword Triplers contained one winner of $20. Two 500 Frenzy returned nothing and 1 Scrabble was a dud. That is a sub 50% return on the week. Boo!

Post Script

There is lots of disruption surrounding the modernization (privatization) of Sudbury Downs, Brantford, and Woodbine. These folks have been without a contract since May and they know darned well that the privatization of their respective areas is going to mean a wage and benefit cut for them.

We know from the Ontario East bundle that the terms of the contract only requires that the operator protect wages and positions for one year.

I have empathy for Tony Bitonti (one web poster referred to him as Tony Baloney) who has the unenviable task of communicating the OLG nonsense to the media. Yes, the OLG cannot negotiate pension provisions for a future owner but you can bet that the pension plan that the new operator will offer the staff will look a lot more like the proposed Ontario Retirement Pension Plan than the plan that current OLG staff pay into. The cruel truth is that Mr. Bitonti and the rest of the OLG Head Office staff will continue to enjoy a high quality pension plan into the future. They've earned that but what about the staff working in sites across the province? Are they to have their benefits gutted as part of the OLG's plan to increase the amount of money they return to the Provincial Treasurer? That little nugget was not highlighted in the Modernization Plan. http://www.olg.ca/about/modernizing_lottery_and_gaming_project_status.jsp
 
I am approaching the last quarter of 2015 which means that I'm looking at ways to improve this blog for 2016. CL66 and Tommy have each brought useful insights to the blog that readers enjoy. If anyone has any ideas about how I might better incorporate their analysis or how I might improve the appearance of the blog, please let me know.

Good luck on tonight's Lotto Max.


Doug

Scrabble #1835 Overtakes 15X The Money - Both Games Near Their End Dates

Scrabble #1835, with only 14% of its float left (+/- 3%) has taken over from 15X The Money which has 12% of its float left (+/- 3%). I have given up on 15X The Money and Scrabble is becoming progressively more rare in my neighborhood.

Each game has an identical outstanding Top Prize ratio of 1.69. 15X The Money has 260 prizes of $100 or more left and 20% of the money associated with those prizes. Scrabble has 197 such prizes representing 25% of the prize money. Scrabble offers a .9% higher small prize return ratio and its that difference that makes the difference between the two. Your chances to find the 15 X Money Grand Prize are 1 in 380,000 whereas they are 1 in 450,000 for Scrabble. Both games should be gone before too long.


  

Top Rated Games

1. $3 Scrabble #1835 - New Leader
2. $3 15X The Money #1840 - limping into the great beyond. 
3. $3 Crossword #3209 - Strong candidate to head the list soon. 
4. $3 Super Bingo #3018 - Takes a long time to lose my $3. 
5. $1 Bingo Express #1823 - Cheat the parking meter and pick one up. 

Games To Avoid

1. $1 5X The Money #1838 - If it's the only ticket for sale - leave it. 
2. $5 500 Frenzy #1838 - Three blog contributors have snagged a $500 prize. That's a first!
3. $2 Fast 200's #1817 - 800 to 1 to win $200 versus 550 to 1 to win $500 for Frenzy. 
4. $3 Tetris #1832 - My seller still has some - no thanks. 
5. $2 10X The Money #1839 - Bad all around.

Games to Play If All You Want Is A Grand Prize

1. Frenzy
2. Fast 200's
3. Extreme
4. Cash Blast
5. 15X The Money

Games Devoid of Grand Prizes

• 5X The Money
• Tetris
• Crystal 7's

Comings and Goings

Nothing to report this week although my update is as of yesterday and I note that CL66 has posted a review for the new game "Wild Card". See last weeks post for the details.

Personal Play

Eight Super Bingos and four Scrabbles returned two winners totaling $9. I am in a bad rut and I'm thinking of breaking out by reaching down my list a ways. You have to like the games you're playing and I don't like Super Bingo at all. Maybe some Cross Triplers or Classic Whites are in order.

Post Script

Some good advice has been posted this past week by Tommy and JayDee.

Lots of discussion over the location of winners and whether things may not be as they appear. I have to preface my comments with the statement that seeing patterns is an ability that has contributed to the evolutionary success of our species. Seeing patterns that are not there does not necessarily hurt us but being right certainly helps.

A while back I set out to collect the data as to where winning scratch tickets were sold. I abandoned the mission mid-stream. There is too much information that is needed to make the project reasonable in scope. The OLG arrays sales data by Census Metropolitan Area (CMA). If we knew, over a substantial period of time, what the sales data was for Scratch tickets and we knew the Grand Prize distribution then we could start to form some conclusions about whether what we are seeing is reasonable. We have to remember that although a winner may come from a small town that there are many many small towns out there and only one Toronto. Like Tommy, I'm not convinced that it is true but I am also not 100% sure that it is not. I am confident that there is no direct finagling but it is possible that winning tickets are randomly produced and delivered to particular CMAs to ensure that all parts of the province get to share in the thoughts that they too could win. The OLG might call that a Marketing Strategy.

The proof of this would be in the contract the OLG signs with the ticket producer but I have no doubt that such details are protected from Freedom Of Information legislation as being counter to the financial interests of the Province of Ontario. The truth will become all the more opaque when the OLG contracts out the entire Scratch Ticket business to a third party.

I chuckled at the lament from one poster who longed for the days where the numbers came out of a machine with balls. Take a look at this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DxUvX5tsqY . An axiom when I was young was , "Don't believe anything you hear and only half of what you see. ". That should be updated to "Don't believe anything you hear or see!"

I'm still trying to figure out who owns the 49% of the company that has been awarded the Ontario East Gaming bundle. There has been a flurry of activity with the CEO of the Great Canadian Gaming Company (owner of the company that won the bid) phoning the Mayor of Belleville. The winning company has ideas around location and the Mayor has three possible sites but the OLG has been very clear in saying that nothing has been decided as of yet. Belleville may find that what the "civic minded" casino company has in mind may not correspond with what the democratically elected representatives of the good people of Belleville have envisioned. More to come....


Doug

15X The Money - On Life Support But Still the Choice

Surprisingly, the top rated game remained on the Outstanding Prize list for another week and as such remains the top choice. Reports from posters indicate that supplies are dwindling everywhere. I'm keeping an eye open for them but I'm not very hopeful of finding any.

An estimated 390.000 tickets remain which means that only 10,000 (+/- 6000) were sold last week. Closing in on the heels of top game is Scrabble #1835. Both games are good choices and with 18% of its float remaining, Scrabble's tickets may be easier to find. Both games have only one Grand Prize left to claim so be sure to check with the seller that the prize is still there at the time of purchase.

 

Top Rated Games

1. $3 15X The Money #1840
2. $3 Scrabble #1835 - Heir apparent. 
3. $3 Super Bingo #3018 - Best small prize return of any game.
4. $3 Crossword #3209 - Above average on all rated factors.
5. $1 Bingo Express #1823 - Two of Four Grand Prizes remain and only 27% of the float.

Games to Avoid

1. $1 5X The Money #1838 - No Grand Prizes and nothing else either
2. $5 500 Frenzy #1853 - If you like it, play it. 
3. $2 Fast 200's #1817 - See above
4. $4 Cash For Life #1167 - One of three Grand Prizes left and 2/3 of the float.
5. $3 Tetris #1832 - Devoid of Grand Prizes.

Games to Play If All You Want is a Grand Prize

1. 500 Frenzy
2. Fast 200's
3. Extreme #1780
4. 15 X The Money
5. Cash Blast

Games Devoid of Grand Prizes

• 5X The Money
• Tetris

Comings and Goings

A new version of Cashingo arrived this week. It's pretty good for top end prizes but, oddly, there are no prizes between $75 and $500. In order for both of those things to be true there has to be a paucity of mid-level prizes. Tommy's comment to this effect is bang on.

Personal Play

A smorgasbord of tickets representing all five top rated games returned $10 for the $40 outlay. Unacceptable!

Post Script

New poster Randy raised an interesting point as it relates to Inter-provincial Lottery Corporation games. For newer readers, the Inter-Provincial Lottery Corporation is simply an organization made up by all of the regional lottery corporations in Canada. (Atlantic, Quebec, Ontario, Western, BC) It is responsible for games that are run country-wide. That includes 649 and Lotto Max and, in our case, most of the $10 and $20 games. Randy noticed that the posted outstanding prize information for the Inter-Provincial game Extraordinaire was different for the Western Lottery than for the OLG. The game information for these games is updated weekly instead of daily as is the case with OLG games.

I'm sure that no one who is employed in any of the provincial lottery businesses would imagine that anyone would be poking around the various provincial sites comparing information but that is no excuse. Randy is not alone and having games taken down from one site and not another or having the number of outstanding Grand Prizes vary between sites raises legitimate concerns. I am confident that the differences are little more than lack of attention but I will follow-up with the OLG just to be sure.

I was at Woodbine the other week at which time I had an enjoyable chat with a woman who was manning the mini-kiosk representing the Responsible Gaming Resource Centre (www.rgrc.org). They are tucked into a broom closet at Woodbine. It compares poorly with the space and location provided to its sister organization in Quebec at the Casino de Lac Leamy. It always irritates me that the OLG constantly toots its own horn about its self-exclusion program and its "Know your Limit" message. This messaging flies in the face of all of its decisions to increase gaming revenue in the province. Why not release the OLG from this conflicting mandate and turn over that part of the puzzle to organizations like the RGRC?

Lastly, the OLG announced today that the "Eastern Bundle" has been awarded to something called the "Ontario Gaming East Limited Partnership". This corporate entity is 50.1% owned by the Great Canadian Gaming Corporation. Who owns the other 49.1%? No idea and I expect that no one can find out. They will take over the Thousand Island Casino, the slots at Kawartha Downs, and build and operate a casino in either Belleville or Quinte West, depending upon future decisions made by the city councils of those two communities. I'll have more to say on this subject next week.

And lastly, the OLG staff in the Sault voted to join the Public Service Alliance of Canada last week. I suspect that they will need a collective voice over the course of the next few years.

Cheerio.

Doug

 

 


  

15X The Money - The Best But Going, Going, ....

Another 30,000 - 15X The Money tickets were sold this past week and the remaining Grand Prize remains an illusive dream. The game has been de-activated yet several posters have had success finding tickets in their respective areas. Although only 12% of the Top Prizes remain to be claimed for the game, 20% of the Top Prize money remains to be claimed. In addition to the outstanding $75,000 Grand Prize there is one of three $7,500 prizes and one of four $5,000 prizes.

Your odds to snag the biggy are one in 400,000. Only 20X The Money has better odds to win a Grand Prize but that version of the current family of games has a very poor small prize return.

Top Rated Games

1. $3 15X The Money #1840
2. $3 Scrabble #1835 - 2nd best top prize ratio and an average small prize return.
3. $3 Super Bingo #3018 - slightly positive top prize ratio and the best small prize availability
4. $3 Crossword #3209 - above average on all factors.
5. $1 Bingo Express #1823 - 450,000:1 to win $10,000 for a buck. 

Games To Avoid

1. $1 5X The Money #1838 - terrible choice
2. $5 500 Frenzy #1853 - rating system does not like it but posters have won two of the $500 prizes. 
3. $2 Fast 200's #1817 - Terrible small prize return - $200 or bust. 
4. $4 Cash For Life #1167 - 1 of 3 Grand Prizes left and two thirds of the float remains. 
5. $3 Tetris #1832 - no Grand Prizes. 

Games Devoid Of Grand Prizes

• 5X The Money
• Tetris

Comings and Goings

Extraordinary and Silver Gold were retired this past week. Silver Gold never amounted to anything during its innocuous run. All the Grand Prizes were claimed and 22% (600,000 tickets) of the float remained to be sold. Extraordinary was an extraordinary flop. Over seven million tickets from the original float of 15,000,000 were unsold. The game was on the market for almost a year and a half. Four of its $2,000,000 Grand Prizes were returned to lottery heaven when the lottery gods pulled its plug. It will be interesting to see if Extreme does any better.

New to the shelves is a second version of Crossword. The earlier version is about 75% completed. I rate the game in 7th place which is very good to begin its run. The sister version is currently in 4th place so don't worry about which version you buy.

Also new is Bingo Doubler. CL66 and Tommy each have write-ups on the game that are in the comments to last weeks update. I rate the game as mid-pack.

Personal Play

After a good week two weeks ago, last week cut me back to size. Forty-two dollars of tickets (Classic White, Cross Tripler, and 15X The Money) had three winners of $14.

Post Script

Two articles this week from the Sault Star concerning OLG jobs in that community. The first one
( http://www.saultstar.com/2015/08/10/concerns-voiced-over-potential-job-losses-with-privatezation )
speaks to a vote that OLG workers undertook to join the Public Service Alliance of Canada. The workers are concerned that the OLG's Modernization plan may cost jobs in the Sault.

The second article ( http://www.sootoday.com/content/news/details.asp?c=97062 ) details some gobbledygook from OLG Media Relations Manager Tony Bitonti. You see, the OLG Brass swooped in to the Sault for a board meeting last week. The usual fanfare preceded them about all the jobs that the OLG was providing to the community. But it turns out that some of the locals wanted to double check some of the claims and that's when the prevarications were rolled out.

Make no mistake, Modernization = Privatization and those who are wondering how the OLG is going to increase its revenue after inviting private casino operators to build and operate Ontario's casinos are right to be asking questions. Any notion that Stephen Rigby and his band of merry men are going to be bossing American Casino companies around is pure folly. The reverse will be true.

I am of the view that the OLG will never come close to increasing its contributions to the Province by $1.3 billion per year. It could well go down and I'm sure that the brain trust is already preparing speaking points about how horse racing is to blame.

How fitting that Labour Day is approaching. Stick together OLG staff and have a skeptical eye about what you are told!


Doug