Wild 10s Getting Long in the Tooth But Remains the Choice

After more than two weeks since the last update, Wild 10s has retained its top spot. With 34 Grand Prizes left to claim, your chances to win one are one in 8,200 while your chances to win $100 or more are one in 330. Both of these numbers are currently the best available. The downside of the game is that an estimated 20% of the float remains to be sold and readers of this blog have been reporting that the tickets are scarce in their respective part of the province. That is certainly the case in Ottawa.

Prestige is a new game that looks like it may become the heir apparent to Wild 10s. More about the game follows below. This game has $12 million available to Grand Prize winners from 15 million tickets. By comparison, Wild 10s presently has $340,000 left in Grand Prizes from 280,000 tickets.

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Wild 10s
2. Prestige
3. $200 Million
4. Fast 200s
5. Extravaganza

Games to Avoid

• None.

*Kudos to the OLG for finally getting rid of QFG Crossword. They milked that game for all it was worth well after the Grand Prizes had all been claimed.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Fast 200's is a good game in this area. The maximum prize is only $200 but there are over 3,000 of them to be won.

$3 Game Update

Scrabble #1754 is the best choice in this group. Texas Hold'Em is a good second choice.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Cleopatra remains the best choice although every game in this group is OK with the sole exception of Poker Multiplier.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Classic White is the poorest game in this area and for some reason my local retailer is always suggesting that I buy those tickets. Did you get a memo from OLG Headquarters?

Comings and Goings

QFC Crossword and Cash Cow were both retired over the past two weeks. QFG Crossword had been devoid of Grand Prizes since mid-June and 95% of the float was ultimately sold. Contrast that to Instant Millions that was retired some time ago and you can see that the OLG is inconsistent in its decision making about how long games remain on the market. Cash Cow had 2 of its 5 Grand Prizes left to be sold and 22% of its float left to be sold. It was pushed aside for Cross Express but what about those two unclaimed prizes?

Two new games were introduced recently. Horseshoes is a $3 game with the usual prize distribution for $3 games. The 3- $75,000 Grand Prizes represent 2.9% of the revenue. The available prizes for less than $75,000 and at least $100 are lower than average with a higher level of $3 winners in exchange. Overall, it does not compare favourably with other $3 games, at least not at this point in time.

The $10 Prestige game is another Interprovincial Game. Its prize distribution is good. The 12 - $1 million prizes represent 8.2% of the revenue and your chances to win any prize are 1 in 3.28 tickets which is second only to $200 million in the high end group. The number of tickets worth the $10 cost of the ticket is relatively low  at 9.6% of total revenue. Wild 10s, by comparison, returns 12% of its revenue to $10 winners. A reader who jumped on Prestige early bought 11 tickets winning only $20. Not a good initial endorsement.

Personal Play

Thanks to the scarcity of Wild 10s, I purchased 3 - $200 Million tickets. They contained 1 - $20 winner. While stopping for gas I extended my budget when the seller had 2- Wild 10s left to sell. They were both winners returning $45.

I'm now sitting at 72% Return on Investment and a 39% cash rate.

There was lots to talk about this week after my absence but I have some very exciting news to share with you in the next update. It is the kind of news that provides players everywhere with first hand hope. Stay tuned for the Friday update.

Doug

Wild 10's Remains the King

The recommended game revealed 9 of its Grand Prize winners last week while selling 47,000 of its tickets. The law of numbers has been in effect with this game since its debut. With 150 Grand Prizes available at the outset, they tend to be revealed at the same rate as the tickets are sold. When there is only 3 or 4 Grand Prizes, they can either be revealed early or late. When it's late, that's when prudent players should arrive at the party. At present, 44 Grand Prizes are left in Wild 10's and 378,000 tickets are left to be sold. Your chances to win one are now 1:8,600.

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Wild 10's
2. $200 Million
3. Fast 200's
4. Extravaganza
5. Pick 3

Games to Avoid

• Quest For Gold Crossword

Note: I have no idea why this game has not been canceled. Less than 5% of its float remains to be sold and, predictably, sales are virtually nil. I'll bet that you could not find one of these tickets even if you wanted to buy one.

$1 - $2 Game Update

The games with a large number of lower grand prizes score well on my rating system. Pick 3 and Fast 200's are both good games to play. With a $1 and $2 price tag, why not?

$3 Game Update

Texas Hold'em surrendered one of its two remaining grand prizes last week. As a result, there is not much left in this category to play. If you must, Scrabble #1754 and Texas Hold'em are the best choices but I would look elsewhere for value.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Cleopatra, Cross Tripler, and Cash For Life are the best games in this category. None is a particularly good play at the moment.

$10 - $20 Game Update

With the exception of Classic White, each of the other three games is playable. I know, the cost is a problem. It is for me too.

Comings and Goings

Our friends at the OLG did us the immense pleasure of retiring Cash for Life #1159 and Tetris last week. Tetris is a particularly good example of OLG decision making that is not in the interest of players. All of the Grand Prizes had been claimed by 30 April in this game. They sold almost 800,000 of those tickets since that date! I guess if people want to play a game with no Grand Prize then that is their choice. Crazy!

The retirement of Cash for Life #1159 deserves a feather for the OLG cap. All of its grand prizes had been claimed by June 19th and 70% of its tickets were left to be sold. Further, it had to compete against Double Cash for Life which has to be an uphill battle. Double Cash for Life sold more tickets last week than the retired game did since becoming bereft of Grand Prizes.

A new game was also introduced this week: Black Jack Tripler. This game has 7 Grand Prizes of $100,000 representing 5.5% of the revenue base for the game. That is a good number. The game has a bit more winners for the price of the ticket than I like to see. The chances to win any prize are 1 in 4.18 (below average) and the chances to win a prize greater than the $5 ticket cost are 1 in 7.19 (below average).

Personal Play

My seller seems to be running out of Wild 10's. He only had 1 last week. I purchased it along with my first $200 Million.

The Wild 10's was a $15 winner, breaking off my losing streak. The $200 Million was a dud. My overall cash rate is now 37% and my total Return on Investment is 71%. I have been trending down for the past two months. I am now at a result that would be expected. So much for 2013 being my lucky year. Still, there is always next week.

There will not be a blog entry next week as I am headed off to Saratoga Springs, New York  for the best thoroughbred horse racing in North America. If you're a horse player and have never been there, I cannot recommend it any more highly. It is a little paradise on earth. I'm hoping to see at least one of the Triple Crown race winners in the Whitney Stakes prepping for the Travers Stakes in late August.

Keep on Truckin.


Doug

Wild 10's Rules the Roost

After a revamp of the current evaluation system, Wild 10's maintains its top billing. Your chances of winning a $10,000 Grand Prize are currently 8000:1. Last week saw 6 of the Grand Prizes claimed from the 50,000 tickets that were sold. This game has currently sold almost 70% of its ticket float which means that tickets should remain readily available over the next few weeks. If you are put off by the relatively low Grand Prize when compared to the price of the ticket, try $200 Million. Feedback has been positive from readers of this blog who have dabbled in that game.

Thanks go out to the two readers who posted messages to the blog concerning the claiming of Grand Prizes in the Double Cash for Life Game #1162. I update my information on Thursdays and the next day another prize had been claimed. A further Grand Prize was claimed during this past week leaving only 1 of the Grand Prizes in that game with fully 85% of the tickets left to be sold. Both the Cash For Life games are now poor propositions yet they are very popular games with players. It is always good practice to check at the store or at  the mobile site http://www.scratchodds.com/ or at the OLG site http://www.olg.ca/lotteries/games/viewInstantTicketInfo.do to ensure that nothing has changed with the game you intend to play. Take nothing for granted.

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Wild 10's
2. $200 Million
3. Texas Hold'em
4. Fast 200's
5. Extravaganza

Games to Avoid

• Quest For Gold Crossword
• Tetris
• Cash for Life #1159

$1 - $2 Game Update

Twelve cents out of every dollar spent on Fast 200's is returned to the Grand Prize winners. This is good. The downside is that only one ticket in every 7.94 is worth more than the $2 you paid for it. It is the top rated game in this group.

$3 Games

Texas Hold'em continues to be a good game in this group. It is recommended for those who balk at paying $10 for a ticket.

$4 - $5 Games

Cleopatra is another game that flies under the radar. You have one chance in 200,000 to win $100,000 for a $5 ticket. Not bad.

$10 - $20 Games

It's interesting how slowly the $200 Million tickets are selling. The game was introduced in early April. About 25% of the tickets have been sold to date. By comparison, Super Bingo and Tetris were introduced at the same time. Over 80% of the $3 tickets for both of these games have been sold to date. I'm not the only one who can suffer from price resistance.

Comings and Goings

It's the dog days of summer. No new games and no retirements this week. We'll let the OLG staff have some vacation.

Personal Play

I erred last week when I stated that there was a 3% chance of having 8 losing Wild 10's tickets in a row. The actual chance of that happening was 6%. Well, I had another wipe out last week. I am now 0 for my last 12 tickets. There is a 1.6% chance of that happening. The strange thing is that my seller had to open another package of tickets for me last week. I got the last four tickets in the trip again. It defies all logic to think that there is something to that but we human beings innately look for patterns. That won't be happening to me again.

Wild 10's is now the worst game that I have played this year. I have cashed on 7 out of 27 tickets for a measly $120. My overall cash rate is down to 35% and my total return on investment is 72%. This is becoming intolerable!


Doug

Wild 10s Stays on Top - For Now

Wild 10s retained its position over the past week. Fifteen of the $10,000 Grand Prizes were claimed last week from the 60,000 tickets sold. Your odds to win one of the remaining 59 Grand Prizes are 8,000:1.

I have been looking at my evaluation method and I have concluded that it needs to be tweaked. Any game that devotes more of its total revenue to the Grand Prize does very well based upon the existing rating method. That fact is important but I think that I am providing too much weight for it. This is not to say that the games that I have been recommending have been poor, it just means that I need a little more balance in the formula. I will change it this week and report on the details of that change in next week's blog.

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Wild 10's
2. Double Cash For Life (Game 1162)
3. $200 Million
4. Fast 200's
5. Texas Hold'Em

Fast 200's is a prime example of my need to re-calibrate the formula. It is a new game with a heavy weighting towards the Grand Prize(s). This makes the game one to watch but, in my opinion, it should not be the 4th rated game before selling any tickets.

Games to Avoid

• Quest For Gold Crossword (5%)
• Tetris (13%)
• Cash for Life (71%) (Game 1159)

I have included the estimated percentage of the ticket float remaining for each of these games. I always find what the OLG does in this area to be disconcerting. Most games are retired when the float drops down below 20%. Quest For Gold Crossword and Tetris are both well below this number but the OLG continues to flog these tickets. Cash for Life has the misfortune to have revealed all three of its Grand Prizes early in its life cycle. Lets see how long this game remains in play. The OLG policy is to retire games where the Grand Prize is $100,000 or more once all the Grand Prizes have been claimed. That should be the case here as the Net Present Value of the Grand Prize for this game is greater than $100,000.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Two new games were introduced this week. Fast 200's looks good. It is one of the games like Pick 3 and Wild 10's where there are lots of Grand Prizes but the Grand Prizes are small. In this case, it is only $200 but there are 3909 to be won.

$3 Game Update

Texas Hold'Em is the best game in this group by a significant margin.

$4 - $5 Games

The Cash For Life Games are always popular. We currently have a very good one and a very bad one. Be careful - play Double Cash For Life.

$10 - $20 Games

Although Wild 10's is our top rated game, none is poor in this category.

Comings and Goings

Cross Express is a new $1 game. Note that apart from the 4 - $10,000 Grand Prizes, there are no prizes available of $100 or more. The ratio of tickets that return your $1 is low, which is a positive. Your chances to win any prize is second best for the $1 - $2 Games.

Fast 200's is a good game with lots of $200 Prizes. If it's action you want rather than a big prize, play away.

A new Bingo (Game 3009) has surprisingly been introduced. I say surprising as the existing game (Game 3008) is in mid-life. The two games are very similar in structure but if you wish to play this game, play the new one.

Personal Play

I'm streaking downwards fast! Last week was my first shut out of the year. I followed that up with another shut out this week. My cash rate is now down to 37% and my Return on Investment to 75%. This is getting serious.

There is only a 3% chance of having eight consecutive losers in Wild 10's. I often wonder why my bad luck is routinely more dramatic than my good luck. A reader once asked me if there is any advantage to where the tickets are in a strip. I did not quite understand the question but now I do. The seller last week opened a new package of tickets and peeled my four off the back of the strip. The same thing happened today although I have yet to scratch my tickets for this week. The answer to the readers questions must be "NO", but who knows really? These tickets are produced by computer programs with random number generators. Who's to say that there have never been quirks in the "fail proof" system. It's not like it has never happened before! http://www.wired.com/magazine/2011/01/ff_lottery/

Play safe.

Doug

Wild 10s Still the Preferred Choice

Wild 10s improved its position over the past week during which time 60,000 tickets were sold and only 3 of the $10,000 Grand Prizes were claimed. Your chance to win one dropped from 7,700:1 to 7,200:1. The second rated game, Double Cash For Life, sadly surrendered one of its 4 Grand prizes after only exhausting 5% of its ticket float. Players need to remember that when buying a Cash For Life ticket, make sure that it is Game 1162 and not game 1159. The former is a good choice, the latter is a bomb.

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Wild 10s
2. Cash For Life 1162
3. $200 Million
4. Pick 3
5. Texas Hold'Em

Games to Avoid

• Quest For Gold Crossword
• Tetris
• Cash For Life 1159

$1 - $2 Game Update

Pick 3 continues as a good choice in this category. For those looking for a bigger Grand Prize than is offered with Pick 3, try Silver Gold.

$3 Game Update

Texas Hold'Em continues to get stronger in this group. It is substantially better than any other $3 game, at the moment. Two $75,000 Grand Prizes are left to be claimed.

$4 - $5 Games

Double Cash For Life continues to rate high based upon the three remaining large Grand Prizes. Even though one was lost last week, the game remains a good choice.

$10 - $20 Games

If the small but plentiful $10,000 prize does not motivate you to invest $10 in a game, the $200 Million game is also a good one. Neither of Classic White nor Extravaganza are bad plays, but the other two are better choices.

Comings and Goings

$3 Scrabble 1754 was added this week. This is a game with a float of 3,141,600 tickets that includes 3 - $75,000 Grand Prizes. The prize distribution looks good:
Grand Prize - 2.4%
Prizes less than Grand Prize and at least $100 - 3.4%
Prizes more than the cost of the tickets and less than $100 - 46.3%
Prizes worth the cost of the ticket - 12.9%
Profit - 35.1%

More Lucky #1733 and Bonus Banco #1641 were both retired. Bonus Banco was one of only four games that were initiated in 2012. The game still had 45% of its float left including 1 of the 6 -  $50,000 grand prizes. It was a poor game to play and I am thus pleased to see it go. More Lucky continued to be not a bad choice with 1 of its 3 - $75,000 Grand Prizes left to be claimed and 19% of its ticket float left when it was terminated.

The Grand Prize winners for the two retired games hailed from: North York (1 for each game), St Albert, Port Elgin, Scarborough, and Etobicoke.

Personal Play

My bad luck continues. I made a personal error this week when my usual store was sold out of Wild 10s when I arrived. Instead, I picked up four at a magazine stand in a shopping mall. I don't like doing that and I paid the price when I was shut out. Frank in Scarborough had terrible luck at a magazine store in the Scarborough Town Center.I should have learned my lesson from him. My cash rate is now 37% and my Return on Investment has now slipped to 75%.

Thanks to readers who have messaged me about their individual playing styles. One reader was ahead on $200 Million after having bought 16 tickets! I like to hear that.

I also received a message asking how I know how many tickets have been sold. The answer to the question is that I don't - I estimate the number based upon the numbers that the OLG publishes on the Outstanding Prize information sheet.

I need some luck and Independence Day seems as good as any day for me to turn things around.

Doug

Wild 10s - For The Time Being

Wild 10s surrendered ten of its Grand Prize winners last week while selling 50,000 tickets. There are 77 Grand prizes left to be claimed and 594,000 tickets left to sell. Your chances to win one are one in 7,700.

I have been thrown a curve ball by the OLG. Every time I devise a mathematical system to determine what the best game is to play, they come out with a game that exploits my method. This time it is Double Cash For Life. The game only began this week but it already computes as a top game. Further explanation to follow.

I am considering tweaking my system. Before doing so, I'd be interested to hear from any readers as to what you look for in a game. I know what a bad game looks like but the best game can be difficult to define - different tastes and all. Do you want large Grand Prizes, many Grand Prizes, lots of middle prizes, lots of smaller prizes, most winning tickets? For me, the Grand Prize is important but if that was all, I should be buying 649 tickets where a large part of every draw goes to the winner. Other winners fight over the scraps. Instant Games are more democratic and ostensibly more fun to play. So drop me a line, I'd be interested to hear of personal preferences.

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Wild 10s
2. Double Cash For Life - 1162
3. $200 Million
4. Pick 3
5. Cleopatra

Games to Avoid

• Quest for Gold Crossword
• Tetris
• Cash for Life - 1159

Note: Be very careful with the Cash for Life games. Game #1162 is new and a good choice. Game #1159 has no Grand Prizes left! Check with the retailer if you get to the store and forget which is which. Or you can check on your mobile at www.scratchodds.com .

$1 - $2 Game Update

Pick 3 continues to be a good game. If you don't like the tiny $500 Grand Prize, then $2 Silver Gold is the next best game in this group.

$3 Game Update

Texas Hold'Em is the best pick in this area. Your odds to win one of the two remaining $75,000 Grand Prizes are 1:390,000, down from 1:852,000 when the game began.

$4 - $5 Games

Double Cash For Life springs from the gate as a good choice here. Of the games that have been selling for some time, Cleopatra or Jacks are Wild are both good games.

$10 - $20 Games

Putting Wild 10s to the side, $200 Million still has seven $2 Million Grand Prizes to be claimed. Sales of this game are poor. The OLG (this is actually an inter-provincial game) are learning that we Canadians have trouble slapping down $20 for a ticket.

Comings and Goings

Each game available for sale has its own particular character. Double Cash for Life was introduced this week. It is a game that is rich on the top end with 4 Grand Prizes of $2000/week for life and at the bottom end where there are many prizes of $4, $6, $8, $10, and $12. The prize distribution for anything else is very poor. So if you're hoping to snag a middling prize, chances are that you will be disappointed. Here is the prize distribution. I have indicated the same percentage breakdown for last week's new game (20X Lucky) in parentheses.

Grand Prize - 14.7% (4.3%)
Prizes between $100 and the Grand Prize - .9% (2.4%)
Prizes Greater than Ticket Cost and <$100 - 40.4% (51.1%)
Prizes for the Cost of the Ticket - 9.8% (9.2%)
OLG Profit - 30.2% (33%)

You will note that the percentages do not tally up for Cash for Life. I suspect that there is an error on the detail sheet and that the OLG profit percentage should be higher. That number is higher the cheaper the game but this game is listed with a player return rate equivalent to $10 and $20 Games.

We say good bye this week to the venerable Bejeweled. This was the recommended game for several weeks this year. During that time I purchased 31 tickets, cashed 14 of them for a total of $300. Not bad. The OLG sold this game longer than it should have, according to their own policies, but I'm going to assume that they had a defensible reason for doing so.

Personal Play

Four Wild 10s tickets contained one winner for the grand total of $10. Grrrr. I guess it is better than being shut out, but not much better. I now stand at a cash rate of 38% and a total Return on Investment of 78%. I'm trending down and need a boost soon.

Happy Canada Day to all.

Doug

Wild 10s Continues Its Run on Top

Wild 10s sold over 5% of its float last week while surrendering 16 of its 150 - $10,000 Grand Prizes. Those results hurt the game's rating somewhat but it remains the recommended game. There are 87 Grand Prizes remaining to be claimed. Your chances to win one are 1 in 7,600. The second rated game is $200 Million. If you want a shot at a Grand Prize of $2 Million, then this is the game for you. There are 8 Grand Prizes left to be claimed. Your chances in that game are presently 1 in 1.5 million. Not sure if that is better or worse than being hit by lightning.

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Wild 10s
2. $200 Million
3. Pick 3
4. Classic White
5. Cleopatra

Games to Avoid

• QFG Crossword
• Tetris
• Cash for Life
• Bejeweled

QFG Crossword has no Grand Prizes nor Second Prizes left to claim. The same is true for Tetris. Bejeweled has none of the top three levels of prizes left. The most you can win in that game is $10,000 and there is only one of them left to claim. The OLG is hardly selling any tickets for Bejeweled and they are continuing to violate their own policy of cancelling games with Grand Prizes of $100,000 or more once all the Grand Prizes are claimed. On the other hand we mourn the demise of Instant Millions. I'm seeking information from the OLG on the decision-making process for that game.

$1 - $2 Game Update

Pick 3 continues to be a very good $1 Game. Lots of cashable tickets and 102 - $500 Grand Prizes left to win.

$3 Game Update

Texas Hold'Em is the best game in this category. Two - $75,000 Grand Prizes are left. Small wins are less frequent with this game than other $3 games but the 450,000:1 odds to win the Grand Prize makes the game a reasonable play.

$4 - $5 Game Update

I know that folks love the Cash for Life games. Sadly, both remaining grand prizes were claimed last week. Your "Cash for Life" now stands at a one time payment of $10,000. Not quite the same rush. It will be interesting to track this game. Fully 75% of its float remains to be sold and all the Grand Prizes have been claimed. So much for my conspiracy theory of how Grand Prize tickets are released! There are lots of other $5 games that one can choose from. The current top rated game is Cleopatra.

$10 - $20 Game Update

The top two games stand out. Classic White is moving up and may become a recommended game in time.

Comings and Goings

A new 20X Lucky Game was introduced this past week. I like the prize distribution for the game:

Grand Prizes - 4.3%
Prizes of $100 or more - 2.4%
Small Prizes - 51.1%
Prizes equal to cost of ticket - 9.2%
Profit - 33.0%

There are six Grand Prizes to be won and lots of action at the low end. The 51.1% is a high number for that category. You'll have lots of action and the chance to win a good Grand Prize of $100,000. I'm hoping that this game eventually becomes the recommended play.

Personal Play

Six Wild 10s contained two winners totaling $25. Poor. My cash rate has slipped to 38% and my return on investment stands at a low point of 80%. I need some luck.

Thanks to Shelley for her posts to the blog. She's had some recent success with Wild 10s. Here's hoping that  her luck continues this week.


Great weather for "scratching" outside.

Doug