Cash For Life #1167 - Where Are You?

Another 34,000 tickets burned through this past week. Eighty-nine of the original 1174 Top Prize tickets remain outstanding but those 89 tickets represent 29% of all the money associated with the 1174 Top Prize tickets. Of the money available for Top Prizes, 95% is represented by that one lonely outstanding Grand Prize. The game will be deleted from the outstanding prize list on February 8th. Tic-toc.

I use a measure of standard deviation in my rating formula. Statistically, 68% of a population should be within one standard deviation of a mean. For my ratings, 23 of the 29 active games fall within that measure. My rating on CFL 1167 is almost 8 standard deviations from the mean. 99.7% of all measures will be within 3 standard deviations! This game is a significant outlier.

Now, I know that all of this falls upon one ticket. Finding it is less likely that finding a needle in a proverbial haystack. The OLG is the most likely winner of the prize at this point in time but if you can find any loose tickets at your seller, scoop them up.

 

Top Rated Games

1. $4 Cash For Life #1167 - Going, going.....
2. $3 Crossword #3210 - Excellent 2nd choice but it's sister game is more prevalent. 
3. $3 Scrabble #1861 - Significant imbalance in available Top Prize $ with available tickets.
4. $3 Frosty #1864 - Well rounded choice.
5. $5 Merry Money #1863 - 2 of 3 Grand Prizes remain and 18% of float

Games to Avoid

1. $2 Polar Bear #1862 - lowest % of Top Prize $ versus Top Prize tickets.
2. $30 250 Golden #1782 - Gotta fix the rating on this game. It's not as bad as it looks. 
3. $1 Red Hot 50's #1827 - Not worth a buck.
4. $1 Hit 100 #1849 - sales are slow and should be. 
5. $10 Classic White #1844 - lost last GP. Only 1 prize left greater than $1000. BEWARE!

Games Devoid Of Grand Prizes

• Polar Bear
• Classic White
• More Lucky Lines

Comings and Goings

Nothing to report.

Personal Play

Nothing to report.

Post Script

Grand Prizes were claimed this past week for Bingo #3019, Classic White, and Diamond. The total number tickets available for sale is 94 million which is about where the OLG wants to keep things.

Interesting comment from Bee Gee this week that he/she asked his/her seller to call the OLG and reactivate a package of de-activated CFL tickets. They did so! I'm surprised by that but I learn things on this blog all the time. In the same vein, we learned this week that each Provincial Lottery Corporation has the individual right to de-activate Interprovincial Games at different times. I still can't get my head around that one.

I was impressed by Dan's post last week of his detailed results. He achieved a return of 99% on his total investment. That is pretty darned good.

Shelley asked about folks experience with www.playolg.ca . I'm also curious about that. Please share if you've been to the site.

This week's story comes from "Inside Belleville" http://www.insidebelleville.com/news-story/6248174-belleville-closes-in-on-casino-deal-300-jobs-expected/ . The Great Canadian Gaming Corporation (awarded the Eastern Gaming bundle) and Belleville City council are involved in a love fest. The article fails to mention that Kingston refused to have a casino built in their location. Belleville was the second choice. I wonder why?

Keep that el-nino coming.


Doug

Cash For Life #1167 - Top Pick By Far

Folks, I am back from the home of the brave with empty pockets. A seventy cent dollar bites and $27 USD on Powerball tickets were for naught. That said, there was some hair-raising excitement. Check the Post Script for details.

During my absence, the game of choice plowed through another 110,000 tickets without revealing the last grand prize. There are a mere 650,000 tickets left (8% of float +/- 3%). Over 25 cents of every dollar spent on the game from here on will go to that Grand Prize winner. That is an extremely high figure for scratch games, especially when you can expect a small prize return of 57%. The game offers $712,600 of Top Prize prize money left but $675,000 of that amount will go to the Grand Prize winner. Once it's won (if it's won), this game will go from the penthouse to the outhouse.

 

Top Rated Games

1. $4 Cash For Life #1167 - not to be confused with its lame sibling #1171.
2. $3 Crossword #3210 - 11% of top prize money left and only 5% of the float. 
3. $3 Frosty #1864 - A good choice and tickets should be available.
4. $5 Merry Money #1863 - A good Christmas game
5. $10 Diamond #1781 - Best of the expensive games

Games to Avoid

1. $2 Polar Bear #1862 - Horrible game but lots of tickets available. Beware!
2. $1 Red Hot 50's #1827 - Stinker
3. $1 Hit 100 #1849 - Brand new game and it is awful (see CL66's review)
4. $30 250M Golden #1782 - have to tweak the formula to treat this game fairly
5. $2 Golden 7's #1824 - Poor top prize ratio and poor small prize return. 

Games Devoid of Grand Prizes

• $3 More Lucky Lines
• $2 Polar Bear

Comings and Goings

$5 Wild Card and $10 Holdiay Spectacular were both retired. Wild Card was devoid of Grand Prizes and Spectacular had 1 Grand Prize left and 29% of its float. Strange decision by the OLG.

Four new games were introduced: $1 Hit 100 (rated 27th of 29), $3 Lucky Dragon (16th), $5 Money Multiplier (15th) and $10 Wild Ten's (11th). In total, there an estimated 99 million tickets available for sale which is just about what the OLG wants to supply at any one time.

Personal Play

Nine losing Powerball tickets and one losing $5 USD $250,000 Cashfall.

Post Script

My friend in Deerfield Beach took me to buy my Powerball tickets to a convenience store near to his abode. It was called "Snappy's" but my friend referred to the proprietor as Snippy due to his gruff demeanour. He was right as I was given the back of his hand when I went in and couldn't understand what he was saying to me but I knew he wasn't wishing me good luck.

Two days after I bought the tickets someone attempted to rob the store and ended up shot to death! Here's the article: http://www.sun-sentinel.com/local/broward/deerfield-beach/fl-deerfield-store-shooting-folo-20160116-story.html If you want to see the difference between our society and theirs, it's all in this article. Snippy certainly did not need any trauma counselling after killing the would-be thief.

For those who had questions about buying Powerball tickets and not being in the USA, here is an explanation from Forbes: http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2016/01/12/why-you-cant-buy-a-1-4-billion-powerball-ticket-online/#2715e4857a0b133000652c95 .

And lastly, I saw an item today on the anniversary of the launch of PlayOLG. The OLG Spokesperson said that the OLG is very pleased with the progress of the site. Their infamous "Modernization" report forecasted annual revenue of $89 million and a profit of $35 million in year one. The OLG refused to release the actual results citing reasons of competition. What malarky! Competition with whom? Media Relations Director Tony Bitonti sent his subordinate to deliver that canard. The reporter should have pressed him on the point but, alas, it was not to be.

Happy winter to all. Remember: scratching tickets burns calories.


Doug

New Year Begins With Cash For Life #1167 Firmly On Top

The Christmas frenzy failed to unveil the last outstanding Grand Prize in Cash For Life #1167, leaving it as the clear choice of games to play. Only 200,000 of the tickets were sold since the last update as opposed to 800,000 of the new version of the game. There is now only an estimated 9% of the float left or 760,000 tickets. They will definitely be hard to find but do not settle for the new version. If you're one of the folks with a $2 off coupon for Cash For Life, spend some time scrounging around for version 1167.

 

Top Rated Games

1. $4 Cash For Life #1167 - 9% of float remaining (760,000 tickets), +/- 3%
2. $3 Crossword #3210 - 7%, 1.5 million tickets - +/- 1%
3. $3 Crossword #3212 - 72% - 10.6 million tickets - +/- 2%
4. $3 Frosty #1864 - 26% - 605,000 tickets - +/- 3%
5. $3 Cashingo #1847 - 20% - 600,000 tickets - +/- 6%

Games to Avoid

1. $30 250 Million #1782 - My rating system discriminates against this game. It is not the worst game. 
2. $1 Red Hot 50's #1827 - Even Lucky Lines is a better $1 game.
3. $2 Polar Bear #1862 - Did climate change melt all the grand prizes? None left. 
4. $5 Wild Card #1854 - Was a good game until all the Grand Prizes were claimed. 
5. $3 More Lucky Lines #1829 - Hate the franchise. 

Games To Play If All You Want Is A Grand Prize

1. $4 Cash For Life #1167
2. $10 Spectacular #1865
3. $4 Cash For Life #1171
4. $10 Diamond #1781
5. $20 Extreme #1780

Games Devoid Of Grand Prizes

• Polar Bear
• Wild Card
• More Lucky Lines

Comings and Goings

Cross Tripler #1830, 500 Frenzy, and Keno #1416 were all retired this past week. Keno was the best of the lot with one Grand Prize left outstanding and 18% of its float. Its retirement was a tad early but the new version of the game likely accelerated its retirement. Cross Tripler was down to 10% of its float and one outstanding Grand Prize.

New to the allotment is Jackpot. Benefiting from being released during the Christmas period, it has already sold 10% of its float. I rate it presently as the 6th best game which is unusual for a new game.

Personal Play

One losing 250 Million ticket. I have a poll question for readers: which is worse, losing on ten consecutive $3 tickets on losing on one $30 ticket?

Post Script

Thanks for all of the kind comments left recently on the blog. I am most appreciative of those who take the time to comment and/or number crunch. I've learned from your views and approaches to playing not only scratch games but other OLG games as well. I was very interested in the comments left by a couple of retailers a few weeks back. Very illuminating.

I even find the edgy conspiracy theories to be entertaining. Shelley (nice to hear from her) has suggested that I consider censoring the comments. I have only deleted three comments in all the time that I have been posting updates. I don't want to be a censor but I ask that all posters remain respectful in their comments. I will admit that a couple of recent posts were getting near the border of good taste. Another poster suggested that the blog be converted to require sign-ins in order to avoid the "Anonymous" posts that may get too edgy. I will look at that but I'm not very savvy when it comes to such matters.

A poster recently commented on the number of "old" people winning prizes. The OLG's Modernization Plan is designed to target that younger audience and women as a source of increased revenue. It stands to reason that older people would have more disposable income and women just have better things to do but please be comforted that the OLG is looking to make playing more appealing to those two demographic groups. Good luck to them.

Another poster suggested that the OLG produce an "App" that could be used to check tickets. No doubt the technology is there to do so. I think it's a brilliant suggestion and should be brought to the attention of the OLG. I will undertake to do just that on behalf of this community.

The Gift Pack must have been a popular item in Christmas Stockings this year. The game lost an astounding 34% of its float over the Christmas period. That was double the sales of the second highest expensive game, Diamond, and that game is sold nationally.

Finally, a shout out to the OLG workers who are currently locked out in Ottawa. Apparently, it's dangerous to delay people intent on losing their money on the slots:
http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/odds-poor-for-early-resolution-to-olg-slots-lockout

These folks have not had an increase in five years. The employer wants to give them a three year contract with 0% in each of the first two years and less than 1% in the third. They also want to open the language of their pension plans. The workers earn between $13 - $17 per hour.

I understand that the cheaper the wage bill is, the more the asset is worth to any future private contractor. Still, the tactics being employed by the OLG strike me as being pecuniary. It is also rich for the OLG's Director of Media Relations, Tony Bitonti, to be commenting on the situation. He is well paid in his position and can look forward to a first class pension. I'm not saying that he does not deserve one, but why are these workers any different?

Happy New Year everyone.


Doug