$4 Cash for Life #1165 is a Dominant Choice

Another week ticked by without a Grand Prize being revealed in the Cash for Life Family $4 game. Your chances to win either $1000/wk for life or $675,000 is now estimated at 675,000:1 and this with a game that returns 67% of its revenue to players and contains one winner in every 3.54 tickets. Twenty-five cents of every dollar spent on the game is returned to the two winners as of today. This game represents significant value and towers above all other choices at this time. I am playing it exclusively.

 

Top Rated Games

1.       $4 Cash for Life #1165 (19% of float remaining, +/- 3%)

2.       $3 Scrabble #1777 (9%, +/- 3%)

3.       $20 Extraordinaire #1742 (94%, +/- 4%)

4.       $1 Red Hot 50s #1788 (46%, +/- 1%)

5.       $20 200 Million #1740 (43%, +/- 4%)

Games to Avoid

1.       $3 Tetris #1793 (no Grand Prizes remaining)

2.       $3 More Lucky Lines #1775 (no Grand Prizes remaining)

3.       $2 Fat Cat #1729 (no Grand Prizes remaining)

4.       $3 Keno #1412

5.       $3 Crossword #3205

$1 - $2 Game Update

Both Cash for Life games have now been retired. Red Hot 50s is playable but keep in mind that the highest prize you can win is $50. There still are over 5000 of those prizes to be claimed.

$3 Game Update

Scrabble #1777 is the best choice by far in this area.

$4 - $5 Game Update

The game of choice stands alone. Don’t look at another game until one of its two Grand Prizes is claimed.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Avoid Classic Gold. For $10 you have to right to expect much more.

Comings and Goings

It was house cleaning week at the OLG. Four games were retired from play: $2 Cash for Life Family, Mahjong, Cross Tripler, and Emerald 7’s. All four were good choices and each had at least one grand prize left. Despite that, these games were deep sixed while three games continue to be sold that are devoid of grand prizes. I’m getting wound up again.

Personal Play

Ten Cash for Life $4 games were purchased. Four were winners returning $28. An altogether expected result. I am not discouraged.

Meanderings

A poster last week asked about the difference between Ontario 49 and Lottario. These are both “Winner Take All” type games but I thought that I would give them a look-see. Each game costs $1.

Lottario is a game where the pot builds if it is not won. You get two lines and 45 numbers to choose from. Your chance to win the jackpot is a little over 4 million:1. The OLG takes 50% of the money invested. It then takes $50,000 of the total invested and dedicates it to Early Bird players who must match all 4 numbers drawn in the early bird draw. In the results that I reviewed, there were  111 Early Bird winners. The total money of people who won $5 is then subtracted from what is left. There were over 33,000 $5 winners in the draw I reviewed. What is left is then split between the bigger winners on a percentage basis with the grand Prize winner(s) accruing 44% of the total funds. In other words, a little over 20% of all money that goes into the game goes to the one or maybe two winners.

Ontario 49 uses four more numbers and establishes fixed prizes for its top two winners. You receive one line of numbers and have one chance in 14 million to win the Grand Prize of $2 million. That amount will be split if there are two winners. The players with 5 of 6 plus the bonus split $50,000. There were 6 of those in the draw I reviewed. All other winners received fixed amounts regardless of the number of winners. The OLG has tried to enhance the number of winners by providing a free ticket to those who have 2 of six numbers plus the bonus number.

Which game is better? I would keep an eye on the Grand Prize for Lottario. If it is unclaimed for a few draws then I would prefer that game to Ontario 49. Lottario is also better for having 4 or 5 numbers correct. Ontario 49 is better for smaller prizes. Both games are poor by this standard when compared to Scratch and Win games. One final comment is that Ontario 49 markets itself on the basis of having lots of winners. Lottario yields one winner in every 20.89 tickets. Ontario 49 claims to have one winner in every 6.6 tickets. That’s true but remember that 80% of its winners win a free ticket. Your odds to win any monetary prize are 32:1.

I had fun looking at that. Please send along any other questions you may have.

Best of luck to Vic at Lac Leamy tomorrow.

Doug

Cash For Life #1165 Remains the Champ

The recommended game is setting all time records on my evaluation method. Why? Over 7% of total revenue is dedicated to the Grand Prize winners and two of those three prizes remain outstanding with only 23%, +/- 4% of the ticket float left to sell. Your odds to win are now roughly 860,000:1. I can't be sure but I gotta feeling that at least one of those prizes is about to be claimed, maybe both, very soon. A $4 investment with one chance in 3.54 to win any prize and two chances at $675,000 is more than enough to attract my attention.

If you intend to play the game, remember to play game #1165 and not #1161. The latter game is OK but the recommended game is a much better choice.

Top Rated Games

1. Cash For Life #1165 (23% of float left to sell +/- 4%)
2. Scrabble #1777 (10%, +/- 3%)
3. Cash For Life $2 (17%, +/- 2%)
4. Cross Tripler #1755 (9%, +/- 2%)
5. Prestige (37%, +/- 7%)

Games to Avoid

1. More Lucky Lines #1755
2. Fat Cat #1729
3. Quest For Gold Crossword #3204
4. Classic Gold #1771
5. Crossword #3205

$1 - $2 Game Update

The $1 Cash For Life game was retired this past week. The $2 version remains an excellent choice and the Red Hot 50's is also good if you don't mind sacrificing the prospect of a big Grand Prize.

$3 Game Update

Scrabble #1777 is a very strong choice. Keno #1412 and Mahjong are also playable.

$4 - $5 Game Update

There are other reasonable choices in this area but I can't recommend any game over the Cash For Life #1165.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Prestige took a serious hit this week, losing two Grand Prizes. Regardless, it remains the top pick in this group. If you don't like Prestige, then simply stay away from Classic Gold. It is terrible.

Comings and Goings

The $1 Cash for Life game was canceled this week. Too bad - there was one juicy prize left to be claimed and only 400,000 tickets left to sell.

New on the scene is a terrible Crossword game #3205 and a new version of an old favourite of this blog: Turbo Cash. A reader is already wading into this game and has had early success. Check his comments in the comments section of the previous post. The problem with these Crossword games is that they are cheap on the top end. There are only 10 Grand Prizes of $50,000 each and a staggering 20 million tickets in the float. Facing odds of 2 million:1 in order to win $50,000 does not ring my chime. Further, one chance in 6.84 to win anything more than $3 is second worst in this group next to Quest For Gold Crossword. Yes, I know that you like the game. So do I but try to resist the temptation.

Personal Play

I am expanding my play in order to attack Cash for Life #1165. Last week I bought 10 tickets. That left my seller with one left in the rack. Now, I defy anyone to tell me that they possess the kahunas to leave the store with 10 tickets whilst leaving an orphan ticket left to be sold to the next person. So, 11 tickets contained five winners. One winner was a free $10 Cash for Life ticket that was worth $10. My total return was $38 for the $44 invested. I have now bought 40 of these tickets. I have cashed 35% of them for a total return of $116.

Closing Comments

Imagined transcript from an OLG headquarters meeting on game management:

Boss - How is that $1 Cash for Life game going?
Subaltern - Well, we've sold 85% of the tickets and there is still one grand prize left to be won.
Boss - Should we order up the final tranche of tickets from the supplier?
Subaltern - At this point we have sold 2.6 million tickets which should translate into a profit of $900,000. But, there is a juicy $67,500 prize left out there somewhere.
Boss - Good. How much do we make if we sell every ticket?
Subaltern - $1.2 million but if that Grand Prize ticket sells soon, that money will come out of our existing profits and we'll have to sell the 400,000 tickets in the final tranche without any Grand Prize left to be won.
Boss - I see. What is your recommendation?
Subaltern - I think that we should hold off on the final tranche. We then choke all the vendors by not sending them any tickets. Once we're reasonably sure that the winning ticket won't show up, we cancel the game making us the winner of the $67,500 ticket. If the winning ticket gets claimed soon then we order the final tranche and flog them to unsuspecting players everywhere.
Boss - Agreed. Good work Jimmy, you've got a future at OLG.


Good Luck to all this week.

Doug

Cash For Life #1165 Remains The Strong Choice

Two hundred thousand of the estimated remaining 2.3 million tickets (+/- 4%) were sold last week without revealing a Grand Prize winner. Your odds of winning a Grand Prize now sit at an estimated 1.06 million:1. An interesting aspect to this game is that it is rich in smaller prizes and the Grand Prize is favourably positioned. The trade off is the prizes between $100 and the Grand Prize are poor. It's a game that you can grind along with while trying to hit the jackpot. With an estimated 30% of the float left to sell and two of the original three Grand Prizes still up for grabs, the time is now.

Top Rated Games

1. $1 Cash For Life Family (13% of float left +/- 25%)
2. $4 Cash for Life Family #1165 (30%, +/- 4%)
3. $10 Prestige (40%, +/- 7%)
4. $2 Cash for Life Family (18%, +/- 2%)
5. $5 Cross Tripler #1755 (9%, +/- 2%)

Games to Avoid

1. $3 More Lucky Lines #1775 (19%, +/- 3%)
2. $2 Fat Cat (25%, +/- 4%)
3. $3 QFG Crossword (29%, +/- 1%)
4. $3 Bingo (53%, +/- 2%)
5. $3 Tetris (52%, +/- 3%)

$1 - $2 Game Update

Either Cash For Life game is a good choice as is the Red Hot 50's.

$3 Game Update

At long last we have a couple of good choices in this area. They are: Keno #1412 and Scrabble #1777. This is a treacherous area that also contains 4 of the 5 worst games currently for sale. Be alert.

$4 - $5 Game Update

Cash For Life #1165, Cross Tripler #1755 and Emerald 7's are all good choices. There is but one Grand Prize remaining in Emerald 7's and only 235,000 tickets left to sell +/- 60,000. Those are presently the best odds to win any Grand Prize.

$10 - $20 Game Update

Prestige and the two $20 Games are OK and continue to lumber on. $200 Million had its first $2 million winner in over eight months last week. The winner was not from Ontario as far as I can determine.

Comings and Goings

Cash In was retired this week three weeks after the last Grand Prize was claimed. It had 14% of its float left to sell +/- 3%. The jumbo game Crossword #3202 was also retired. The game was only introduced last November and it sold almost all of its 20 million ticket float. It was a poor choice so players who don't pay attention to such trivialities were done a favour by the OLG.

Taking their respective places are $5 Sapphire 7's and another $3 More Lucky Lines game #1776. The More Lucky Lines game is very much like its sister but buyer beware: the earlier version #1775 is devoid of Grand Prizes and currently tops our Games to Avoid list. Don't be fooled. The $5 Sapphire 7's game is very much like the Emerald 7's game that is also currently for sale. It looks OK but the Emerald 7's game is the better choice of the two.

Personal Play

I opened up this past week in search of the CFL Grand Prize. Ten tickets contained three winners totaling $16. Not good. I'm going to stick to this strategy until further notice.

Other Comments

A reader this past week commented on one Anthony Binkowski of Ottawa who won between $2000 and $5000 on four different occasions on Daily Keno and Ontario 49. It does seem unusual. I Googled his name without finding out much. I did find a young chap who I doubt has thousands of dollars that he pours into these games. There's a story there but I don't have any angles that seem credible right off of the top of my head. If you do, post away.

I downloaded the report from the Auditor General for Ontario http://www.auditor.on.ca/en/ on his recent review of the OLG's Modernization Plan. It is a long but interesting read. In short, the OLG's much heralded plan was overly optimistic, misrepresented some negative points, and lacked consultation. As a result, its implementation has been blockaded in major municipalities, is behind schedule elsewhere, and its projected positive outcomes scaled back based upon the AG's risk assessment.

My conclusion is that the Senior Management of the OLG was more committed to running the OLG like they were private casino operators with special powers than they were as an agency of the Government of Ontario. The fact that the Government of Ontario booked the OLG's wildly optimisitic revenue projections into its overall budget without questioning its merit, leaves me somewhat stunned.

It is clear to me why Mr.Godfrey and former CEO Rod Phillips and the previous board had to be replaced. I will provide readers with highlights of the report in coming posts.

The Kentucky Derby was won by the 5-2 favourite in a 19 horse field. He looked good but it was a short price on that horse. Congratulations to those who had him.

Doug

Cash For Life Family #1165 Remains the Choice

An uneventful week with Grand Prizes being claimed in More Lucky Lines, QFG Crossword (2), Tetris, Cross Tripler (both versions), and CFL Family $10. The recommended game remained unscathed. It is noteworthy that the secondary prizes have also not been hollowed out for this game. It is a strong choice. At present, your chance to win the Grand Prize is 1.2 million to 1.

A reader commented this past week that he hates the game. I can well understand anyone's frustration with any game. As much as this blog identifies the best plays, I would never argue against trusting one's instincts. If you feel lucky, jump in!

Top Rated Games

1. CFL Family $1 (13% of float left +/- 25%)
2. CFL Family $4 (33% of float left +/- 4%)
3. Prestige (41% of float left +/- 7%)
4. CFL Family $2 (19% of float left +/- 4%)
5. $200 Million (46% of float left +/- 4%)

Games to Avoid

1. Cash In (23% of float left +/- 3%)
2. More Lucky Lines (22% of float left +/- 3%)
3. QFG Crossword (35% of float left +/- 1%)
4. Tetris (63% of float left +/- 3%)
5. Bingo (57% of float left +/- 2%)

$1 - $2 Game Update

If you can find any $1 or $2 CFL Games for sale, grab them. It's rare that inexpensive games are this highly rated.

$3 Game Update

Keno #1412 is the recommended game in this area. Mahjong and Scrabble are also reasonable choices.

$4 - $5 Game Update

The CFL $4 game towers over the other games. Remember, its game #1165. Game #1161 is not bad, but nowhere near as good as the recommended game.

$10 - $20 Games Update

Prestige and either of the $20 games are reasonable choices.

Comings and Goings

A $2 Crazy Eights game was introduced this past week. Its prize structure looks like the typical pyramid distribution and its Prizes > $100 and for the Grand Prize of $28,888 (there are 5 available) are good. The game has potential, just not yet.

Personal Play

Six CFL Family $4 games included two winners worth $16. A typical and not unexpected result.

Closing Comments

A reader messaged me this past week reminding me about the original Wintario draws that were televised with Faye Dance. I remember the show but would never have come up with her name without his message. The OLG has certainly evolved greatly since those days in the middle 70's.

If any one has an opinion on the Kentucky Derby tomorrow, send it along. No race is tougher to handicap.


Doug