Christmas Instant Game Ratings

What follows is my current evaluation of all Instant Games. Remember that my ratings focus upon the percentage of Grand Prizes remaining in a game versus the percentage of the float that I estimate remains to be sold.

For example, More Lucky Lines, the top rated game, has all of its Grand Prizes of $75,000 left to be claimed and I estimate that 83% of the ticket float has been sold. That means that your chances to win a Grand Prize are 4 times greater than when the game began. Still unlikely, but these games give you the chance to play games with the best chance to win. The odds never change in the Lotto Games, only the size of the Grand Prize.

With that in mind, here are the current ratings as you pick up tickets for stocking stuffers:

$3

2144

More Lucky Lines

Top Rated

$10	2170	Cross Deluxe	Very Good
$10	2054	Royale	Very Good
$3	3027	Bingo	Very Good

$20	2052	Supreme	Good
$10	2129	25x Multiplier	Good
$10	2130	Bigger Spin Win	Good
$10	2162	Super Money	Good
$5	2093	Cross Tripler	Good
$5	2086	Ruby 7's	Good
$5	2126	Sizzling 5's	Good
$3	2142	Pac Man	Good
$3	2080	Scrabble	Good

$50	2159	Classic Extra	Neutral
$30	2051	Multi Million	Neutral
$30	2055	Triple Million	Neutral
$10	2157	Cash Out	Neutral
$5	2138	Bingo Doubler	Neutral
$5	2098	Bling	Neutral
$5	2135	Cross Tripler	Neutral
$5	2164	Holiday Win	Neutral
$5	3101	The Big Spin	Neutral
$3	3029	Bingo	Neutral
$3	3227	Cross Word	Neutral
$2	2149	Movie Money	Neutral

$20	2156	Celebrate 2020	Poor
$20	2169	Festive Fest	Poor
$10	1926	Instant Gift Pack	Poor
$4	1175	Cash For Life	Poor
$3	2167	Peppermint	Poor
$3	2158	Strike Spare	Poor
$2	2161	Ontario Love	Poor
$1	2152	Fiesta Treas	Poor
$1	2160	Jewel Jackpot	Poor

$3

3225

QFG Crossword

Very Poor

$2

2163

Stock Stuff

Terrible

If you're out looking for inexpensive tickets, avoid the Xmas themed Stocking Stuffer game. It's the worst game still being sold. Instead, choose 3027 Bingo or More Lucky Lines (if you can find any).

One last caution: if you're in the market for expensive tickets, exercise caution with the $50 Classic Extravaganza. The OLG is promoting this game with advertising. The audience may be under the impression that players receive seven $10 tickets for $50. This is not the case. If it were, I'd be asking my mom for an advance on my allowance to buy more. The game is just like any other. Your chances of winning a prize are 1 in 3.75 and the house take is 29.95% of all sales. There are seven tickets to scratch but the outcome for the package is predetermined. There are multiple games on each ticket which means that there is lots of action before you learn if your package was a winner. It is akin to getting more bang for your buck with a $5 Bingo Doubler versus a $3 Bingo ticket. Now, if you happen to have 7 grandkids and you want to give them the impression that Grandpa bought each of them a $10 Scratch Ticket, then by all means buy a package, open it up, and distribute the tickets as you please. Just don't be under the illusion that doing so is the same as buying 7 individual $10 tickets in other games. Cross Deluxe or Royale are the best games for the high end player. 

Merry Christmas to everyone. I'll be back next week with a breakdown of my mission to find and scratch as many More Lucky Lines tickets as I can find. If you can find any in your store, pick them up. The retailers will tell you that the game has been canceled. Not true - keep hunting. 

Doug

Lucky Lines - Game No 2144

The recommended game for play continues to be More Lucky Lines. One hundred and seventy-five of the 908 top prizes have been claimed. This suggests that 19% of the tickets remain to be sold. The reason that the game is recommended is that all three of the $75,000 Grand Prizes remain outstanding.

This means that your chances of winning a Grand Prize stand at one in 200,000 as opposed to one in a million at the outset of the game.

The game itself is very horizontal in its structure. This is to say that the majority of prizes are of the small variety. This is quite different from a game like LottoMax where there is one winner and everyone else fights over scraps. Your chances in that game of winning $20 are over 80-1. In a game like More Lucky Lines your return should mirror the published information. There is one winning ticket in every 3.27 tickets sold and the overall return is 64.95%. The more tickets one buys, the more likely it is that your results will mirror those numbers. I have purchased seven tickets so far. Four of them were winners returning a total of $22. Based on the numbers, I should have expected to have 2 winners and a total of $14. The game is flattened even further by having a second prize of only $5000. Most $3 games like this one have second prizes of $25,000.

The good news is that with this sort of churn, I can continue to reinvest winnings in pursuit of those three outstanding Grand Prizes. With a chance to win of one in 200,000, and with 7 tickets purchased, my chances were one in 30,000.




But there is a problem: the tickets are very hard to find. Every store I go into tells me that the game has been cancelled. This is not true, as of today. I estimate that 19% of the tickets remain to be sold which represents over 600,000 tickets. But the OLG is not providing the sellers with any more tickets. I've asked my local sellers to ask the OLG person why they are not providing them with tickets for this game. They look at me like I'm a martian.

There are five reasons why an existing game can be canceled. Here they are:

1. Game is sold out.

2. All top prizes are claimed for games with $100,000 or greater top prizes.

3. Average weekly sales reflect significantly decreased customer demand and a new replacement game is planned.

4. Quality issue with game in market.

5. Security issue with game in market.

Experience tells me that if the OLG were to cancel this game now, only reason number 3 could apply. The wicked aspect of this is that sales are largely a function of availability. The OLG can argue that the game is no longer popular as there are no tickets being sold. It's a self fulfilling prophecy if you don't offer the tickets for sale. The conundrum is that  the OLG has sold over two million tickets for this game and they have yet to give away a Grand Prize. If you were to buy tickets to a raffle and found out later that no prize was given away, how would that sit with you?

I imagine that inside the bowels of OLG headquarters there is thinking going on that goes as follows:

1. If every ticket for this game was to be sold, the profit would be $3,303,339. 
2. As of today, 81% of the tickets have been sold (2,545,000) with an expected profit of $2,675,748. 
3. It is expected that with that volume of tickets sold, at least 2 of the 3 Grand Prizes should have been claimed. 
4. If the game is canceled today, there would be an extra $225,000 added to the profit for the game ($75,000 x 3) as those prizes would remain with the OLG.
5. The total return on the tickets not yet sold should be $630,000. But, with the 3 outstanding prizes still up for grabs, the OLG will have to pay off 3 - $75,000 winners in addition to all of the other winners. 
6. By canceling the game now and not selling the remaining tickets, the profit for the game will be increased by 10%. 

Do you see the ethical dilemma? I suspect that the OLG has a blind spot here based on what I have seen before in similar circumstances. In general, tickets begin to become scarce once 90% of the tickets have been sold. The scarcity here began when slightly more than 20% of the tickets remained.

My advice is to get out there now and try to find tickets for this game before the bean counters at OLG put their interests ahead of yours. Let me know how you make out and, as always, only play within your personal budget. The odds are always against you.


Doug

Xmas 2019 Instant Game Review

Given that we are approaching the 2019 Christmas season, I thought that I would provide an update on all of the current OLG Instant Games.

There have been some articles in the Sun this week on the OLG, it's Sunshine List employees and its executive compensation. I'll be commenting on those subjects in addition to further Instant Game updates as we approach the time when Instant Game sales reach their zenith.

Cheers.

Cost	Name	Game	Details	Recommendation
$1.00	Fiesta Treas	2152	New game.	Neutral
$1.00	Jewel Jackpot	2160	Game progressing normally.	Neutral
$2.00	Ontario Love	2161	Only 1 grand prize and 1 second prize left.	Caution
$2.00	Stock Stuff	2163	Slight edge to players.	Good
$3.00	Bingo	3027	57% of game sold; 8 of 10 grand prizes left, 1 of 7 second prices left.	Good
$3.00	More Lucky	2144	23% of game remains; all 3 grand prizes remaining, 2 of 4 second prizes left.	Best Play
$3.00	Peppermint	2167	69% of game sold; 1 of 3 grand prizes left.	Poor
$3.00	QFGCrossword	3225	37% of game remaining; 23% of grand prizes and 40% of second prizes.	Poor
$3.00	Scrabble	2080	Game has sold 12% of tickets without surrendering a grand or second prize.	Good
$3.00	Strike Spare	2158	56% of float sold; 1 of 3 grand prizes and 4 of 10 second prizes left.	Poor
$3.00	Words Friends	2146	12% of game left; all grand prizes and second prizes have been claimed.	Terrible
$4.00	Cash for Life	1175	61% of the game has been sold. A vertical game . 42% of Prizes left.	Poor
$5.00	Bingo Doubler	2138	65% of game sold; claimed prizes in line.	Neutral
$5.00	Bling	2098	67% of game sold; claimed prizes in line.	Neutral
$5.00	Chill Play	2148	40% of game sold; 6 of 10 $100k prizes left, 5 of 6 $50k prizes left.	Good
$5.00	Cross Tripler	2093	Less than 10% of game left. Tickets will be hard to find. 3 of 15 grand prizes left.	Good
$5.00	Cross Tripler	2135	New game	Neutral
$5.00	Holiday Win	2164	61% of game sold; 4 of 7 grand prizes left, both $25k second prizes left.	Poor
$5.00	Ruby 7's	2086	31% of game left; 5 of 10 grand prizes and 1 of 3 second prizes left.	Neutral
$5.00	The Big Spin	3101	75% of game remains; all 8 Grand Prizes remain.	Good
$10.00	25xMultiplier	2129	44% of game remaining; 4 of 8 $250k grand prizes left.	Poor
$10.00	Bigger Spin	2125	Game verging on being pulled; 1 of 6 grand prizes left.	Poor
$10.00	Bigger Spin	2130	Game just getting underway; all 6 grand prizes remaining.	Neutral
$10.00	Cash Out	2157	15% of game remaining; 1 of 5 $250k prizes remain.	Poor
$10.00	Cross Delux	2114	Only 6% of game remain. Tickets will be scarce. 1 of 6 grand prizes remain.	Poor
$10.00	Cross Delux	2170	86% of game remains; 88% of grand prizes remain, 1 of 2 $25k second prizes remain.	Neutral
$10.00	Instant GP	1926	New game, only 6% sold, all grand and second prizes remain.	Neutral
$10.00	Royale	2054	45% of game remaining, 8 of 10 $1m grand prizes remain, 1 of 2 $500k second prizes.	Very Good
$20.00	Celebrate 2020	2156	Only 8% of game sold but 2 of 5 grand prizes claimed and both second prizes claimed.	Terrible
$20.00	Festive Font	2169	80% of game remains, 4 of 5 $250k grand prizes remain in addition to second prize.	Neutral
$20.00	Supreme	2052	72% of game remains, 4 of 10 $2m grand prizes remain, 2 of 5 $200k second prizes.	Very poor
$30.00	Multi Million	2051	23% of game sold, 2 of 10 $2.5m prizes remain, 1 of 5 $250k second prizes.	Poor
$50.00	Classic Extra	2157	75% of game remains; 6 of 7 grand prizes of $500k left and 1 of 4 $250k second prizes.	Good

Ontario 49 - Final Report

My 10 week trial of Ontario 49 yielded a return of $62 versus an expected return of $38. Nothing to complain about but I still lost $38.

The chances of winning anything more that $10 in a 100 ticket trial is very small and I did not defy those odds. I achieved the high return by hitting 3 correct on four separate occasions. I would have expected to do so only twice.

There was an unusual event that took place during the trial. You have one chance in 14 million to win a Grand Prize of $2 million. There was about 14 million tickets sold over the course of the trial which should have produced one winner. It turned out that there were two - and both hit on the same draw. As a result, those two lucky souls had to split the $2 million.

It is quite a handy little rule as I expect that the 14 million tickets issued represented about $12 million in revenue (allowing for free ticket redemption). From that 12 million, about $6 million would have been profit. Had the OLG paid each winner $2 Million, they would have reduced their profit to $4 million. Had the two winners done so on different draws within the sample, that would have been true. So, the OLG increased its profit over the sample period by 30% by having that little innocuous rule in place.

The same rule is in place for the second prize of $50,000. In our sample period, that prize was won 4 times over twenty draws versus an expectation of 6 times. The four winners all won on separate draws. I think that making them split that prize is chintzy on behalf of the OLG. Your chances to win the $50,000 are one in 2.3 million. Not very likely and I have to split the teeny prize?


My next experiment is going to be Daily Grand. I am headed to the USA for a few days next week. I plan to blow my lottery ticket budget on Powerball tickets that week and I intend to buy a few Scratch tickets this week.

Tune back in later for an explanation of Daily Grand.


Scratch Ticket Recommendations

Recommended
$3 Bingo 3026
$4 Cash For Life 1174 (not 1175, a new version)
$5 White Diamond 2095
$20 Colos Casino 2140


Games to Avoid
$3 Cash Words 2141
$3 Poker 2134


Doug

Ontario 49 Update

I am now 8 weeks into my 10 week Ontario 49 trial. The game's biggest difference when compared to Lottario is that the Grand Prize of $2,000,000 does not increase when it is not won like Lottario does. In the latter game, the odds to win the Grand Prize are 1 in 4 million. The Grand Prize starts at $250,000 and increases the longer it goes unclaimed. Sales increase by about 40% per week as the pot increases. It never got over $750,000 during my trial. In Ontario 49, the chances of winning are 1 in 14 million. With two draws a week and a fixed prize of $2,000,000 one would think that the number of tickets sold would remain constant and that is exactly what happens. What is noticeable is that the Saturday sales are larger than the Wednesday sales by 15%. Wednesday sales are about 80,000 per draw and the Saturday sales are 92,000 on average. Given that the pot is split between all winners, I would recommend only playing the game on Wednesdays. Your chances of splitting the pot are reduced by 15% by doing so.

As expected, with ticket sales of less than 100,000 per draw, it is unlikely for the jackpot to be won for any given draw. In fact, it has not been won over the course of the 16 draws that I have played. This is not surprising. At the rate that tickets are sold I would only expect to see the jackpot won once every year and a half.

Moving down a prize level, the chances of winning the second prize are 1 in 2.3 million. With a prize of $50,000, which is a discount of the true odds by a factor of 47! Further, you have to split that unlikely prize with any other winners. Cheap! In the 16 draws of the sample period that prize has been claimed 4 times. None of those four had to split the prize.

My expected returns for this sample run is $35 from the $100 invested. Any prize of 4 or above has less a small chance to occur in a sample of 100 tickets. Barring a miracle I'm expecting to win 12 Free Plays, 1 x $3 for 2 of 6 plus the bonus, and two $10 prizes for having three correct. My method for turning the Free Plays into $1 prizes is to reduce my 5 line purchase by the number of Free Plays. In that way the Free Play becomes worth $1. I'm doing fairly well so far with 10 Free Plays, 3 - $3 prizes and 3 - $10 Prizes. That $46 return has already surpassed my expectations.


Scratch Tickets

The current recommended games are:

$3 Bingo 3028
$4 CFL 1174
$5 The Big Spin 2109
$10 250 Grand 2111

Games to avoid are:

$3 Poker 2134
$3 Sweet Cash 2076
$10 Cross Delux 2113


Back in two weeks with the final tally's of the trial.


Doug

Lottario Trial Summary

The eleventh and final week was a miss. I hit the key numbers 18 times and the Bonus number twice. The 18 main numbers produced five lines with two numbers, eight with one, and seven with no numbers. The bonus number hit one of the zeros yielding one free ticket which turned into nothing the following week.

The carry over jackpot was hit three times yielding a payoff of $241,067 which is less than one would win by hitting the jackpot without a carry-over by oneself. I wonder if being that lucky still results in cursing your luck to have to split the prize three ways?

My estimation is that the total sales for the carry-over was roughly 40% higher than when there is no carry-over. Given that Lottario is a minor game for OLG, there must be quite a few people who must be playing games only with carry-overs. That's a smart strategy.

The last annual report from the OLG explained, in part, its failure to meet its revenue targets by the fact that there were a low number of carry-over Lotto Max jackpots. When that pot grows so do the numbers of sales - exponentially. There must be lots of groups who sit on the sidelines waiting for carry-over jackpots and they make their plays only on those draws.

Trial Results

I played 222 lines in total. From that total I won $5 once, $4 - 5 times, and a free play 13 times. Twelve of those were used to reduce my cost for the next week. Therefore, my total return was $37 from $111 played or 33%.

Based upon actual odds, the expected return was 13.6 Free Plays, 4.5 lines with 3 correct ($4), and .4 lines with 3 correct plus the bonus ($5) and a .3 percent chance of winning $10 for having four correct. Nothing else had any significant chance. The total projected return was therefore $37. I came out exactly where I expected to be.

These games produce an overall lower return than scratch tickets due to the nature of the game. Any lotto game includes an oversized jackpot. If you don't win it, it is very hard to meet the expected return.

My next trial is going to be Ontario 49. I'm curious to see how it compares to Lottario.

Scratch Tickets

Recommended Games: $3 Bingo 3028, $4 Cash For Life 1174, $5 Cross Tripler 2092, $5 The Big Spin 2109.

Games to Avoid: $3 Crossword 3223, $20 Monopoly 2112.

The $20 Monopoly game is run on an interprovincial basis. 25% of the tickets remain outstanding and there are zero grand prizes left to claim. Be smart!


OLG Modernization

I am not a big fan of the Sunshine List. When it came into being only a small number of people were earning over $100,000. Nowadays teachers and police officers flood the list. The qualifying number should be increased.

Regardless, the OLG has 416 people on the list. It had 418 last year and 411 the year before. Of those people, 23 earned in excess of $200,000. I'd love to know what all these folks do. The OLG has divested itself of all its casinos and slot palaces. It has handed all of the monies going to horse racing to the Woodbine Entertainment Group, and it is trying to offload its lotto sales to a third party. What exactly will there be left for anyone to do? We know that the folks who were never going to meet Sunshine threshold were packaged off to the new casino owners who had to promise to pay its new employees the same way they had been paid. That allowed the OLG to distance itself from the bloodletting that is coming. But it appears that the high end folks are heretofore safely ensconced.

Congrats go to Stephen Rigby who finally earned more than Rod Phillips managed to pull down as the CEO at OLG. Rigby earned $765,000 which would be 2-3 times what he was paid as the President of the Canada Border Services Agency. Rod Phillips, whose career path took him from Chief of Staff for the Mayor of Toronto, to the OLG where his mentor (Paul Godfrey) circumvented the Government's edict to freeze senior provincial officials salary by awarding him an annual bonus that effectively doubled his income. Phillips then followed Godfrey to the National Post where the pair of them oversaw very painful staff reductions. Bonuses well earned no doubt. Rod is now Ontario's Minister of the Environment. His time is now spent sniping at his federal counterpart while fleshing out his plan for how Ontario is going to meet its targets for CO2 emissions. He likely earns less than half of what he earned at the helm of the OLG for doing a job that will impact all Ontarians for the next millennium. Nice to be an insider.



Doug

Lottario Trial - Week 10

A disappointing week yielded 15 hits and three bonus numbers. That produced one lonely Free Play. The good news for players was that the $440,000 Jackpot was unclaimed. This weeks jackpot is estimated to be $730,000. As a result, I am going to extend my trial by one more week or until the Grand Prize is won.

Total cash prizes won last week totalled $623,500. Further, an additional $190,000 was added to the jackpot and some $185,000 went into the coffers of the OLG. The carry over is worth a stab so I will stick around for another week.

Instant Games

Recommended games are: $2 Burger Bucks #2062, $3 Lights Camera #2088, $3 Lucky 8's #2115, $4 Cash For Life #1174, $5 Bingo Doubler #2094, $5 Cross Tripler #2092, $5 Mission Money #2067, $5 Power 5's #2085, and $5 Big Spin #2109.

Games to avoid are: $3 Scrabble #2079, and $10 Cross Deluxe #2065.

OLG Modernization

There were lots of stories this week that featured local mayors slobbering over the OLG and the cheques they received for hosting slots in their community.

Two Points: the local community is contractually obligated to hold a press conference each time it receives a cheque. They then proceed to tell us that their community would not have an arena or a park if it were not for the slots in their town. Whooey to that, I say. The second point is that the community receives approximately a nickel rebate for every dollar that is consumed by the slots.

Imagine if I gave you a dollar. In exchange I give you a nickel and you have to throw a shindig to thank me for the nickel. That's the sham that we are following. Attention local media: either ask some tough questions at these lame events or decide to cover something more meaningful.


Pretty nice outside. Will we be blessed by winter once more? I say yes.


Doug