Lottario Trial - Week 5

Well, last week was a disaster. There were five numbers that I did not have covered for the draw. I hit two of them and produced a meager total number of matches of 10. With only 10 numbers appearing I would have had a minimum of 10 lines with zero. That sets up well for free tickets except that the Bonus number was another void for me.

The result? A total wipe out.

The only good news is that the jackpot was not won. The estimated jackpot for this week has increased by $100,000 to $350,000. The OLG likes this situation as they get away with putting $100,000 into the grand prize pool instead of the $250,000 if the jackpot had been won. In this case we're all happy.

An interesting point about jackpot building with this game is that the Free Tickets count as a $1 prize for the purposes of calculating how many prizes were awarded. I see the logic but it's a little bit of a feint of hand when you consider that only one in every 5.8 of those 167,148 tickets that won last week are worth more than zero. In total, those $1 prizes will amount to less than half of the 167,148. The OLG gets to bank the rest.


Instant Games

The games are settling in a bit now. There are only three recommended games and three games to avoid. The rest are somewhere in the squishy middle. Recommended are: $4 Cash For Life 1174, $5 5 Bingo Dblr 2094 and $5 Mission Money 2087. Games to avoid are: $3 Scrabble 2079, $5 Big Spin 2104, and $10 Bigger Spin 2124.

I noticed last week that the OLG is running an ad campaign on radio. What game are they promoting? You guessed it - Big Spin. It certainly creates a good visual with the winner spinning a big wheel just like on "The Price is Right". The only problem is that there are no grand prizes to be won in two of the 4 Big Spin games currently for sale. Buyer beware is the credo.


Casino News

I note that there were protests this week in Wasaga Beach. Concerned citizens were protesting outside city hall while OLG minions were inside telling the local council all about the sugar plums that will come their way after the casino opens. There will be big checks delivered in the future. Of course, the OLG fails to mention that the local residents lose $20 in those same casinos for every dollar that comes back. From that, the local community has to pay for increased services for the poor souls with a gambling addiction and their families. There is also extra police for the increase in unsavoury people that hang out at the casino loan sharking and money laundering.

The location of the casino has also not yet been determined. Looks to me that the local residents are on to the misdirection. They want to keep the casino where the former water slide was. I'm not familiar with the layout of the town but I suspect that is not where the Casino Company nor their partner, the OLG, think it should go.


Good luck. I'm in for my usual $10 this week. All of it is new money. Grrrr.


Doug

Lottario Trial - Week 4

Lottario

Unlucky this week as I was held to one free ticket. I hit 15 of the numbers versus an expectation of 16. That should have given me at least one more free ticket but I ended up with 10 lines with one correct. I hit the bonus three times but with only six lines with none correct I was up against it a bit.

Results to date:

Zero Correct - 31
Zero plus the bonus - 5
One correct - 30
Two correct - 11
Three correct - 3

The jackpot was hit again last week keeping the top prize to $250,000. Remember: that prize is split among all winners. At 4 million to one and a maximum win of $250,000, I should be looking elsewhere but we're running an experiment, no?

Scratch Tickets

The Christmas games have been retired but there is still lots to choose from. Recommended games are: $3 Crossword 3223, $4 Cash For Life 1174, $5 Bingo Doubler 2094, $5 X Tripler 2092, $5 Mission Money 2087, and $10 Sonic Multiplier 2118.

Games to avoid are: $3 Keno 1422, $3 Scrabble 2079, $5 5 Bingo Doubler 2094, $5 The Big Spin 2104 and 2109, $10 The Bigger Spin 2124.

It's strange that the only scratch ads I have heard lately are for the Big Spin games. The grand prizes have been won for all of them yet these are the ones being flogged. Be alert to OLG manipulation!

Great Canadian Gaming Company

Interesting news last week on W5 about money laundering at BC Casinos operated by the Great Canadian Gaming Company. There is lots to be concerned about here. When this company was awarded the GTA contract there was noise about this issue. The Liberal Government of the day paused then stated that all was well and that they were satisfied. The Conservatives were strangely silent on the subject.

Subsequently, we learned that a report was being written that concluded wrongdoing was going on. It cost one brave regulator his job. Now the subject re-emerges. A morning host here in Toronto was discussing the matter last week but declined to name the company due to their "litigious" nature.

Something stinks. The GTA bundle is owned 49% by the GCGC, 49% by Brookfield, and 2% by Clairvest Investor Group. More on that consortium another time. All we need to know is that the shares in the Great Canadian Gaming Company have gone up 50% since the announcement. Lots of folks are making lots of money so no rocking of the boat, please.

Good luck for whatever you are playing this week.

Doug

Lottario Trial - Week 3

I was a little lucky and a little unlucky this week. My numbers hit 13 times, down from 20 last week. The expected result is 16. I had the Bonus number twice which is one below expectations. I had eleven lines with none correct but did not manage to convert any of those into a free ticket. Finally, I had 6 numbers five or more times. I hit none of them. On the other hand, there were five numbers I had zero times and one of them was drawn. To rub a bit of salt in the wound, the same number (35) was also part of the Early Bird draw.

The good news is that I did manage to get 3 of the 13 numbers on a single line. This returned to me $4.

My result through three weeks is therefore:

Week 1      - $10
Week 2      +$1
Week 3      -$6

Total -$15 (50%)

After a rather small sample, I am just about where I should be.

Of note was that the OLG estimated the Grand Prize this week to be around $560,000, counting the roll-over. A prize of $616,095 was claimed. That means that the OLG underestimated the number of ticket sales by 100,000. The public is either unpredictable or the OLG needs to sharpen up it's guesstimate tool.


Instant Games

We are continuing to enjoy a good period for Scratch Games. Recommended games as of today are: $3 Crossword 3223, Cash For Life 1174, 5 Bingo Doubler 2094, Cross Tripler 2092, King 2084, Mission Money 2087, Sonic Multiplier 2118.

Games to avoid are: Keno 1422, Scrabble 2079, Big Spin Win 2104 & 2109, Bigger Spin Win 2124.


Casino News

The OLG is set to make a presentation to the town of Wasaga Beach this week with their private casino colleagues, Gateway Casinos in tow. At this presentation they will tell the town council how wonderful it is to have such a great community member as a casino in their town. No doubt there will be a cloaked threat that if they turn it down then the OLG will have no choice but to approach Collingwood who would then be given the opportunity to enjoy the riches of a casino in their town.

If Wasaga Beach says yes, the question will then turn to where? No doubt the town council has an out of the way nook in town in their sights. The OLG and it's "partner" will then explain why the only viable location is on the beach. Yes, summer holidayers, nothing like a glitzy casino where your children are building sand castles.


Doug

Lottario Update

I had a pretty good week last week. With 20 lines of six numbers and six numbers drawn from a field of 45 numbers I expect to have 16 numbers each week. Last week I had 20. Those 20 numbers produced two lines with three correct.

I had the bonus number 3 times and each one of them appeared on a line where I had no other numbers, producing 3 free tickets. That's lucky!

I took to the 3 free lines and added 7 additional lines for this week. This takes my total investment to $19 after three weeks.

The Grand Prize of $367, 069 went unclaimed. The estimated jackpot for this week is $560,000.

The total prizes given out last week totaled $465,395. Given that the Grand Prize increased from $250,000 to $367,069 and that 51% of the revenue that was greater than the awarded prizes, it follows that there were 694,942 lines sold. It will be interesting to see how that number grows as the Grand Prize increases. Remember, the chances to win are just over 4 million to one. The chances are that it will not be won again this week.

Instant Games


The scratch market is pretty good these days. Recommended games are: $3 Crossword 3223, $4 Cash For Life 1174, $5 Bingo Doubler 2094, $5 X Tripler 2092, $5 Jack Frost 2092, $10 Cross Deluxe 2065, $10 Holiday Cash 2128, $10 Instant Gift Pack $5 King 2084, $5 Mission Money 2087, and $10 Sonic Multiplier 2118.

Games to avoid are: $3 Scrabble 2079, $3 Keno 1422, $3 Reindeer 2121, $5 Big Spin 2104, and $10 Bigger Spin 2124.


Doug

Lottario Review

My friend told me that he enjoyed playing Lottario more than he did Lotto Max so I thought that I would give it a try. Lottario is a $1 game. You get 2 lines for a $1. You can pick your own numbers and have the computer spit out the second line or you can have the computer spit out both lines.

I prefer the latter as playing one's own numbers joins you at the hip to the game lest your numbers come up when you're away. Having the computer choose all the numbers allows me to miss a week without any sense of dread.

There are 45 numbers in the game and six numbers on a line. I am going to run a five week experiment of buying 10 tickets per week. (20 lines) With six numbers being drawn, I should expect to match the numbers drawn 16 times or 1.6 times per line. The lowest prize is to have no numbers correct but have the bonus number. That gets you a free ticket. Any free tickets I win become part of the investment the following week. That has the effect of reducing my total investment. Your chances to win any prize are 1 in 5.8 tickets. With 20 lines, I am expecting a return 17 prizes over the course of the five weeks.

All the prizes in this game are for fixed amounts with the exception of the Grand Prize and the Early Bird prize. To win the Early Bird one has to match 4 independently drawn numbers. Winners divide $50,000 side pot. You have one chance in 5,000 to get paid off at 200-300:1.

For each draw the OLG totals up the value of all winning tickets, subtracts it from the total revenue of all tickets sold, then adds 51% of the remainder to the Grand Prize. The minimum prize is $250,000. It was not won last week and the OLG is estimating a $90,000 increase this week. You have one chance in 4 million to hit. With 100 total lines in my experiment, I have one chance in 40,000 to hit.

Looking at the results for last week, it appears that they sold about 650,000 tickets. It will be interesting to see how much the sales go up in a week where there is no grand prize claimed.

My results for last week were 1 Free Ticket won. I had 13 correct numbers, three under expectation. It is important to have the bonus number as many times as possible. I'm expecting to have it three times per week. I had it twice last week.

This week I will reinvest the Free Ticket and purchase $9 in additional lines. That brings my projected total investment down to $49 from $50. Not an auspicious way to begin.

I'd be happy to answer any questions readers may have. I also welcome any readers who wish to share their experiences with this game.

Scratch Ticket Update

For anyone who is looking to cash their $2 free ticket that was part of the $10 Gift Pack, either current $2 game is an OK choice.

Otherwise, good choices at present include: $4 CFL 1174, $5 Bingo Doubler, $5 Tripler 2092, $5 Jackfrost 2119, $5 King 2084, $5 Mission Money 2087, $10 Cross Delux 2065, $10 Holiday Cash 2128, $10 Instant Gift Pack, and $10 Sonic Multiplier.

Games to avoid are: $3 Keno 1422, $3 Reindeer Games, $3 Scrabble 2079, $10 The Big Spin 2104, and $10 The Bigger Spin 2124.


Dress warmly on your trip to your favourite Lotto Seller.

Doug

It's A New Day

After a more than two year absence, I'm back on the OLG prowel!

I was out of the country which makes makes it difficult to write about Scratch Tickets when one does not have the opportunity to play a bit.

My intention with the blog is to expand from the subject of Scratch Tickets into other lottery games. I will play them, learn about them, and write about them. I'll also be commenting on OLG business. The OLG has mostly completed their modernization process so now it remains to be seen if the predicted windfall happens or not.

I expect that after such a long absence that all previous blog visitors will have moved on. It took a while to build up an audience before and I expect to have to do so again.

My first lottery post will be for the game Lottario.  I'm feeling lucky.

Doug

Keno #1418 Remains The Top Pick

This is the 200th update of this blog which I started four years ago. It will also be the last update with a Scratch and Win focus. Over the lifetime of the blog I have learned a lot both by looking under the hood at the OLG and from the many posters who have contributed to this community project. I thank all of them for their interest. In total, there has been over 450,000 visits to the blog and I'm pleased with how often it shows up on Google when searching about the OLG.

The truth is that updating the blog has become more of a chore than a pleasure. That's natural and when that happens, well, I think we would all agree that it is time to move on. I refer all visitors to the previous update for a list of other resources available for players who want to use a modicum of strategy in deciding what games to play.

I will, however, continue to post in this space on the broad subject of the OLG and its fortunes. My focus will be on their Modernization Plan, which is sputtering, to be kind.

After four years of updating the blog, this is what I have learned:

1. Never buy scratch tickets for games that are devoid of Grand Prizes. Tools are available to ensure that is the case.
2. Always check your tickets, winners and losers, at the checking machines before throwing them out or cashing them. 
3. Don't rely on lottery information provided by your local seller unless you know that he/she is knowledgeable. 
4. Don't hesitate to call the OLG with any concerns or questions you may have. Their call center staff is first class. 
5. Play the games you like with the proviso of #1. 

Although I retain a smidgen of doubt that "random distribution" can have more than one meaning, I can point to no evidence that the printing and distribution of tickets is anything other than random in the broadest sense of the word. One poster summed up the subject well when he asked what possible reason the OLG would have to tinker with a business model that is already so heavily stacked in its favour. Makes sense.


Y'all be good now.


Doug