Instant Millions #1683 Solidifies Its Position

Our old friend Bejeweled has gone from the penthouse to the outhouse in two short weeks. May 14th was a remarkable day for the game as 3 of the Top Prizes were claimed on the same day. Lucky winners in Oshawa, Bobcaygean, and Concord took away the loot. The last top prize was claimed this past week. The game has now become one to avoid as no top prizes remain and fully one quarter of the tickets remain to be sold. That equates to 400,000 tickets. What's worse is that all of the secondary prizes of $100,000 and $50,000 have also been claimed. As of today, one $10,000 prize remains. Lets see if the OLG moves to retire this moribund game.

Our recommended game is also teetering as both the second prizes of $100,000 have been claimed. I'm not crazy about this game as it is poor when it comes to minor prizes. Only one in every 7.45 tickets is worth more than the price of the ticket. It gets the nod due to those two juicy $1,000,000 prizes that remain to be claimed. You have one chance in 660,000 to snag one.

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Instant Millions
2. Scrabble #1730
3. Wild 10s
4. $200 Million
5. Pick 3

Best Games to Win the Top Prize

$1 - $2 Games - Pick 3 ($500)
$3 Games - Scrabble ($75,000)
$4 - $5 Games - Instant Millions ($1,000,000)
$10 - $20 Games - Wild 10s ($10,000)

Best Games With Pure Odds to Win Top Prize

$1 - $2 Games - Pick 3 - 8,400:1
$3 Games - Scrabble - 175,000:1
$4 - $5 Games - Cleopatra - 345,000:1
$10 - $20 Games - Wild 10s - 7,800:1

Games to Avoid

• Tetris
• Cash For Life Blowout
• Bejeweled

My interest in Instant Games was sparked by a previous version of Instant Millions that was retired with prizes remaining outstanding. I wrote to the OLG at that time asking what criteria was used to make the decision to retire a game. The thorough response I received listed five criteria:

1. Inventory for a game is completely sold out.
2. All top prizes are claimed for games with $100,000 or greater top prize.
3. Average weekly sales reflect significantly decreased customer demand and a new replacement game is scheduled to be launched or has launched.
4. Quality issue with game in market.
5. Security issue with game in market.

Number three is the key item. The sales of Instant Millions have been lagging of late and I find it odd that the tickets are becoming difficult to find. Some retailers have told me that they were asked to return unsold Instant Millions tickets to the OLG. This sort of information has proven to be very faulty in the past so I'm not convinced as I was able to find tickets in Toronto. More than 1.3 million tickets in this game remain to be sold. Retailers can't sell tickets that they are not provided with. Those 1.3 million tickets represent $6.5 million of revenue to the OLG but, and this is a big but, within those tickets are 2 - $1 million winners. It may be more profitable to the OLG to retire the game now rather than let those two winners be discovered.

It is this sort of potential conflict of interest that concerns me. Under the OLG Modernization Plan, Instant Ticket games will be privatized. I'm not sure how that would be different than it is today as contractors already make the tickets and sell them. The OLG is, however, accountable for how the games are managed. Will this remain the case under privatization? I'm not sure.

Comings and Goings

Two new games were introduced this past week. Neither $1 Wild 8s Doubler nor $2 Cherry Jubilee is particularly exciting at this point. Wild 8s provides 2.0% of total game revenue to the grand prize winners (6), has no prizes of more than $200 other than the top prizes, and provides 44.4% of total revenue to winners of more than the cost of the ticket and less than $100. By comparison, Cherry Jubliee provides 2.4% of revenue to the four top prize winners, 1.8% of revenue to winners of $1000 or more (excluding the top prizes), and 1.0% of revenue to winners of at least $100 and less than $1000. The same 44.3% of revenue goes to little winners and 11.5% goes to the dreaded "I won my Money Back" prizes. That figure rises to 12.5% for Wild 8s Doubler.

One should expect a better deal for a $2 ticket versus a $1 ticket and that is the case here.

Personal Play

My nervousness over the potential retirement of the top game caused me to go a little strong this past week. Ten Instant Million tickets included 3 winners totaling $35. My year to date cash rate has now dipped to 39% and my total return on investment to 84%. I need a $100 winning ticket to give my results a boost.

I can't conclude this week's post without mentioning the departure of Mr. Godfrey from the OLG. Premier Wynne has a vision as it relates to the OLG that differs from that of Mr. Godfrey, and by extention, Mr.'s McGuinty and Duncan. Instant Games represent a small part of the OLG mandate. The OLG Modernization Plan projects an additional profit of $180 million per year through privatization of lotteries, creating on-line ticket sales of games such as Lotto 649 and making Instant Games ubiquitous in our society.

Many of these ideas cause me concern and it appears that the same is true for the Premier. Foremost among my concerns is accountability. The OLG is a public institution and falls under all prevailing laws dealing with openness and public accountability. They measure up to those stringent standards, in my experience. If that virtue is put into question in a privatized environment, then count me out.


Here's hoping that a reader of this blog snags a big one this week.


Doug

Instant Millions Takes Top Spot

Bejeweled's run has come to an end. Three of the remaining four Top Prizes were claimed last week leaving only one prize outstanding. The claims must have been recent as the OLG has yet to publish where the winners were located. I will update that information on next week's posting. With Bejeweled out of the way, Instant Millions takes over as the clear choice. This is a top heavy game with 2 - $ Million prizes left to be claimed and lots of $5 minimum prize tickets (you win what you paid for the ticket) You presently have one chance in 670,000 to win the Top Prize. I have not had much luck with previous incarnations of this game. I bought two tickets a few weeks ago and came up empty on both. The good news is that I don't have to shell out $10 for tickets for the time being. A little luck would not go unappreciated.

 

Best Games to Win the Top Prize

$1 - $2 Games - Pick 3 ($500)
$3 Games - Scrabble ($75,000)
$4 - $5 Games - Instant Millions ($1,000,000)
$10 - $20 Games - Wild 10s ($10,000)

Best Games to Win Any Prize

$1 - $2 Games - Pick 3, 3.13:1
$3 Games - Bonus Keno, 1.86:1
$4 - $5 Games - Cross Tripler, 3.14:1
$10 - $20 Games - $200 Million, 3.00:1

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Instant Millions
2. Scrabble #1730
3. Wild 10s
4. $200 Million
5. Extravaganza 

Games to Avoid

• Tetris
• Cash For Life Blowout

Both of these games have over 20% of their tickets left to sell. The OLG will continue to flog them for some time. Be alert and avoid them.

Comings and Goings

A new version of the staple game Crossword hit the market this week. This is a jumbo game with over 20 million tickets to be distributed. Players love the game and players must be given what they want, no? The $50,000 Top Prize is normal for $3 games. There are lots of smaller prizes, 16 Top Prizes, and not much in the middle. As with all games, you can't get everything in one place. Here is the prize breakdown as a percentage of total revenue:

$50,000 Top Prize -  1.3%
Prizes of $1000 and greater (not including Top Prize) - 1.1%
Prizes of $100 - $999 - 1.5%
Prizes more than $3 and less than $100 - 48.1%
Prizes of the cost of the ticket - 12.9%
Profit - 35.0%

Readers have asked me if I have ever won a lot of money on Instant tickets. The answer is no. You can see why when looking at the prize breakdown for this game. The game does afford the player with lots of small winners and this is one of the reasons why we play these games. If you want an "All or Nothing" game, stick to Lotto Max.

Personal Play

I stuck to my principles and bought two Bejeweled tickets last week. Given that three Top Prizes were revealed during the week, I should have bought more! I had one winner worth $15. My overall cash rate in 2013 now stands at 40% and my total Return on Investment is 85%.

This week I'm switching to Instant Millions with the hope of winning a big one.

A $2 Million ticket was claimed in Brampton this past week and a $1 Million ticket was claimed in Scarborough. Compensation for the Maple Leafs, I suppose.

Good Luck.

Doug

Bejeweled Returns to Top Spot

Neither Bejeweled nor Instant Millions lost a top prize this past week but Bejeweled strengthened its position as the recommended game by selling more tickets. You presently have one chance in 120,000 to win one of the four $250,000 top prizes left to claim. Instant Millions continues as the strong second choice. You have one chance in 700,000 to win one of the two $1 Million top prizes. Bejeweled is a better play for smaller prizes with one in every 5.13 tickets being worth more than the $10 cost of the ticket. Instant Millions has a poor rating in this area of one in every 7.45 tickets. Just under 30% of the Bejeweled ticket float remains to be claimed which means that you should not have any trouble finding tickets.



Best Games to Win the Top Prize
$1 - $2 Games - Pick 3
$3 Games - Scrabble #1730
$4 - $5 Games - Instant Millions
$10 - $20 Games - Bejeweled

Best Games to Win a Prize Greater than the Cost of the Ticket
$1 - $2 Games - Pick 3
$3 Games - Bonus Keno
$4 - $5 Games - Cross Tripler #1743
$10 - $20 Games - $200 Million

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Bejeweled
2. Instant Millions
3. Scrabble
4. Wild 10s
5. $200 Million

Games to Avoid

• Tetris
• CFL Blowout

Comings and Goings

Two new games were introduced over the course of the past week. Each one is quite different from the other. $10 Wild 10s is a game like Pick 3 and Fast 100 where the idea is to provide a greater number of smaller Top Prizes. This is the first time I have seen this approach used in a $10 game. The Top Prize is only $10,000 for your $10 investment however there are 150 top prizes to be won. The game then scrimps on secondary large prizes by offering only 30 - $1000 prizes and 135 - $500 prizes. In total, 97.6% of the prizes of $1000 or more are awarded to the Top Prize winners and 16.5% of the total prize pool is reserved for winners of $1000 or more, which is a high rating. What are you giving up? The prospect of a large prize.

The other new game is $3 Texas Hold'em Poker. I expect this game to be popular given its premise, much like Tetris has proven to be. This game has a more standard breakdown of prizes with 66% of the total prize money for prizes of $1000 or more going to the three Top Prize winners of $75,000 each. The prizes distributed to the winners of $1000 or more prizes represents 6.7% of the total prize payouts. In other words, it is a more democratic game and I rate it as the third best $3 game to play behind Super Bingo and Mahjong, at this point in time.

Personal Play

I am unable to explain why I fail to follow what I have learned to be the only way for me to play. Every time I deviate from the plan it results in punishment. This past week I bought 4 Bejeweled tickets with the result of one $10 winner - a loss of $30. Instead of taking my punishment and moving on I purchased a fifth ticket while out of town. It was a loser. I then bought a $5 ticket in another game - you guessed it...loser! I need to stick to what I know works best for me. Others have differing approaches and if it works for you, great. My cash rate is now down to 40% and my total return on investment has dipped to 85%.

The punishment for my lack of discipline is to cut back to two tickets this week. I know that if I acknowledge my sins and apply my own corrective action, that lady luck will forgive me.

Here is a link to a story that recently ran in the Toronto Star http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2011/02/04/toronto_man_cracked_the_code_to_scratchlottery_tickets.html?app=noRedirect
The problem was inherent with the Scrabble and Crossword games. In those games you can see the numbers or letters and you scratch them when they match the numbers or letters on the top. The tickets are made by contractors and they follow some sort of algorithm in their production. As you can see, there was a flaw in the program. Good on the OLG for acting quickly but it just goes to show you that we should not take everything we are told as the gospel truth.

Happy Scratching.

Doug

Bejeweled and Instant Millions Vie for Top Spot

Neither game surrendered a Top Prize this past week. Bejeweled sold just over three percent of its tickets over the course of the week - 35% of the float remains. Your chances to win one of the four remaining $250,000 Top Prizes are 1:133,000. Instant Millions kept its 2 - $2 million Top Prizes in play with 39% of its tickets left to be sold. Your chances are 1:710,000 to win $1 million for a $5 investment - not bad. Remember that you can't get everything in one game. Although Instant Millions offers a better proposition for a big jackpot, only one ticket in every 7.45 sold has a prize larger than the $5 cost of the ticket. Bejeweled rewards its players with one chance in 5.13 to get a ticket worth more than its $10 cost. It comes down to personal preference - either game is a good choice.

For players who are turned off by the ticket price of the recommended games, Scrabble #1730 is a well rated game for its $3 cost. Those tickets will be hard to find as less than 10% of the float remains to be sold. Keep your eye open for them.


 

Best Games To Win a Top Prize
$1 - $2 Games - Pick 3
$3 Games - Scrabble #1730
$4 - $5 Games - Instant Millions
$10 - $20 Games - Bejeweled

Best Games to Win more than the cost of the ticket
$1 - $2 Games - Pick 3
$3 Games - Bonus Keno #1413
$4 - $5 Games - Cross Tripler #1743
$10 - $20 Games - $200 Million

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Bejeweled
2. Instant Millions
3. Cash For Life Blowout
4. Scrabble #1730
5. $200 Million

Games to Avoid

• Tetris #1737

Tetris revealed its last Top Prize winner this past week. It has also revealed both of its second prizes. The most anyone can now win is $1,112 for your $3 investment. The problem for the OLG is that over 40% of its tickets remain to be sold. They will no doubt continue to sell these tickets to unsuspecting players. Readers of this blog know better!

Comings and Goings

$1 Bingo Express was retired this week. One of its $10,000 prizes was left and just under 20% of its tickets were left to be sold. Ticket sales had ground to a trickle which is likely why OLG pulled the plug.

Personal Play

I went back to my old system and bought 4-Bejeweled tickets from the same supplier. Two were winners returning $60. I have cashed 50% of the Bejeweled that I have bought and am up 15% on the game. Overall, I stand at 41% cashes and am down 9% of total funds invested so far this year.

Norm in Mississauga reports that his luck in Bejeweled started poorly and has remained there. I hope that he's at least lucky in love.

Great weather today - make a point of scratching your tickets outside.


Doug

Bejeweled and Instant Millions Lead the Pack

Back from some entirely unearned vacation. Lets get back at it.

No movement on our top two games (Bejeweled and Instant Millions). They continue to be the games of choice. My personal preference is Bejeweled as I have enjoyed more success with it and it has a broader base of prizes. Instant Millions is a very vertical game with the remaining two Top Prizes of $1M earning the game its high rating. Forty percent of its tickets remain to be sold while 2 of its 3 Top Prizes remain to be claimed. There are only 165 remaining prizes of $100 or more in the 1.4M remaining tickets. I am more attracted to Bejelewed where 580,000 tickets remain to be sold of which 4,000 are worth $100 or more. Bejeweled also has the best pure odds of winning a Top Prize of one in 146,000. If you prefer the game with the biggest Top Prize then Instant Millions has the edge. Either game is playable.





Best Top Prize Games
$1 - $2 Games - Pick 3
$3 Games - Scrabble
$4 - $5 Games - Instant Millions
$10 - $20 Games - Bejeweled

Best Games to Win Any Prize More Than the Cost of the Ticket
$1 - $2 Games - Pick 3
$3 Games - Bonus Keno
$4 - $5 Games - Cross Tripler #1743
$10 - $20 Games - $200 Million

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Instant Millions
2. Bejeweled
3. Cash For Life Blowout
4. $200 Million
5. Scrabble

Games to Avoid
For the first time in a long time the OLG is not selling any games for which all the Top Prizes have been claimed. This was accomplished when Crossword #1299 was retired.

Some new games have created potential confusion for the ticket buying player. Keep the following advice in mind:

• Bonus Keno #1413 and Keno #1410 are equivalent games with Bonus Keno being the slight choice.
• Play Cash for Life Blowout #1160 and avoid Cash for Life #1159.
• Play Cross Tripler #1743 over Cross Tripler #1720.

Comings and Goings

Crossword #1299 and Fast 100 #1688 were both retired over the past two weeks. Crossword was a sucker play while Fast 100 was a good play if you were going to be satisfied with a maximum prize of $100. It had an unusual prize structure but I'm sure that there are some people out there who liked the game.

New games include $4 Cash For Life #1159, $5 Crossword Tripler #1743, and $5 Cleopatra #1728. I'm not a big fan of the Cash For Life games due to their prize structures. This game has only 5 prizes of $5000 or more out of almost 8 million tickets. Cleopatra has 12 from 2.5 million tickets.

Personal Play

I enjoy receiving messages from visitors to the site telling me how they play. It's interesting. Of course, how you play does not affect your chances of winning. My personal preference is to play one game per week and to buy my tickets from one seller. I violated my method last week when I bought three different games from a different seller. The result was my first whitewash of the year. This reduced my win rate to 41% of tickets purchased and my Return on Investment to 87% of money invested. I'll be back on to my normal method this week: lesson learned - again!

For any readers who have an interest in the OLG beyond Instant Tickets, the following article may be of interest to you; http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/phil-froats/ontario-lottery-and-gaming-corporation_b_2980425.html?ir=Canada&utm_source=buffer&buffer_share=1884c .

I'm tired of seeing OLG ads on TV and at the theater. The article makes a good point about the value of marketing in an environment where you have a monopoly. Makes one wonder what the OLG is trying to convince us of.

Good Luck
Doug

Instant Millions #1683 Takes Over

Bejeweled lost another of its Top Prizes this past week dropping the game from first to third place in the new rating system. Bejeweled now has 4 of 6 Top Prizes of $250,000 left and 45% of its tickets left to sell. Your chance to win one is 1 in 170,000. Instant Millions has 2 of three Top Prizes of $1 Million left and 42% of its tickets left to sell. The odds to win one of the two remaining $1 million prizes is 1 in 780,000. Why then is Instant Millions rated ahead of Bejeweled? It's because the tickets are half the price and the Top Prize is four times greater. If you are committed to Bejeweled, you can continue to play as it retains a positive rating overall. Instant Millions has a poor rating for small prizes but if it is the $1 million you're after, this is the game for you.



Best Top Prize Games
$1 - $2 Games - Silver Gold
$3 Games - Mahjong
$4 - $5 Games - Instant Millions
$10 - $20 Games - Bejeweled

Best Games to Win any Prize more than the Cost of the Ticket
$1 - $2 Games - Pick 3
$3 Games - Bonus Keno
$4 - $5 Games - Jacks are Wild
$10 - $20 Games - $200 Million

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Instant Millions
2. Cash For Life Blowout
3. Bejeweled
4. $200 Million
5. Fast 100

Games to Avoid

• Crossword #1299

Comings and Goings

Super Bingo #3011 was retired this past week. It had none of its Top Prizes left and less than 10% of its ticket float at the end of its run. No new games were introduced.
A noteworthy point is that some of the games available for sale are sold across the country. In these cases, an organization called the Inter-provincial Lottery Corporation (ILC) runs the game. Lotto 649 and Lotto Max are games run by this organization which is owned by the five Lottery Corporations operating in Canada. Extravaganza and $200 Million are also ILC games. The OLG received 5,301,000 of the 14,893,800 tickets printed for this game. The prizes could be revealed anywhere. Ontario should roughly expect to receive 4 of the 12 $2 Million winners. The outstanding prize information listed on the OLG website is for all of Canada. One thing I don't like about this mysterious organization is that it only reports on prizes of $1000 or more. I prefer seeing reporting down to the $100 level. Thinking that I'll drop them a line to that effect.

Personal Play

Four Bejeweled contained two winners and $20. After 19 Bejeweled tickets purchased to date, 10 were winners totaling $215. Year to date, I have cashed 29 of 66 tickets (44%) and returned $514 of $566 "invested" (91%).

Bill in North Bay reports success with Bejeweled winning $65 for $20 invested. A re-investment of $20 won a further $10.

A reader just completed an experiment when they purchased 50 Quest For Life Crossword tickets. The $150 investment returned a measly $80. That's bad. She's going to switch to Bejeweled for this week.

Other News

I have altered my overall evaluation system. I am now taking the Top Prize rating and modifying it based upon two factors: the chances to win any prize greater than the cost of the ticket and the overall return rate for the game. I may tweak the formula as I go along in the never ending quest for the magic answer.

I am leaving for vacation tomorrow so there will be no blog update next week. See you the week of April 22nd. Until then I wish you all fortuitous scratching.


Doug

Bejeweled #1724 Still The Choice

Another week revealed no further Top Prizes in the recommended game. Total ticket sales have now just crossed the 50% mark and five of the six Top Prizes of $250,000 remain to be claimed. The game provides a 1 in 146 chance to win $100 or more and one chance in 150,000 to win a Top Prize. Both numbers are the best of any game currently offered for sale.



A note to players is that you play this game by scratching the symbols up top (there are 22 of them), then scratch off the corresponding coordinates below. If you play like Norm in Mississauga and scratch all of the symbols below to begin, you'll have a hard time figuring out if you have won anything! Norm did verify his ticket at the ticket checker machine (like everyone should do for every ticket) but using only that method takes the fun out of playing the game.

Best Top Prize Games
$1 - $2 Games - Bingo Express
$3 Games - Mahjong
$4 - $5 Games - Instant Millions
$10 - $20 Games - Bejeweled

Best $100 Prize Games (or lowest prize listed on web site)
$1 - $2 Games - Pick 3 & Bingo Express
$3 Games - Quest For Gold Crossword
$4 - $5 Games - Money Multiplier
$10 - $20 Games - Bejeweled

Best Overall Rated Games

1. Bejeweled
2. Fast 100
3. Jacks are Wild
4. Mahjong
5. Money Multiplier

Games to Avoid

• Crossword #1299
• Super Bingo #3011

Comings and Goings

Three new games were introduced this past week: $3 Super Bingo #3012, $3 Tetris #1737 and $20 $200 Million Supreme #1740.

The Super Bingo game is an exact duplicate to Super Bingo #3011 which remains in play. Be careful as you want to avoid game #3011 as all of its Top Prizes have been claimed. We should see the OLG retire 3011 shortly as less than 10% of its ticket float remains. Game #3012 has a large ticket float of over 10 million tickets so this game will be with us for some time. One aspect of the game is that it offers 10 Top Prizes of $50,000 but only 4 for each of the $25,000 and $10,000 and $5000 prizes. This means that you have to be luckier to win a smaller prize. I have trouble getting my head around that one.

Tetris has 2 - $75,000 Top Prizes and 2- $25,000 prizes. The next highest prize is $1,112 ,which is quite a drop off of intermediary prizes. Your chances of "Any Cash" or "Any Cash more than the price of the ticket" are not very good when compared to other $3 games.

$200 Million Supreme presents me with a conundrum. It is the same problem that I had with Bejeweled versus Turbo Cash. The game does not score well on my evaluation system but that is because of how I have set up the evaluation. The game only has 559 prizes of $1000 or more in a float of almost 15 million tickets. $1000 is the smallest prize listed on the OLG site for the game. As a result, my method gives it a poor secondary prize rating. But (and this is a big but) the game is rife with prizes of $100 and lower. Your chances to win any prize are one in 3.00 and your chances to win any prize more than the cost of the ticket is one in 4.30. These are excellent numbers. It makes sense as any player spending $20 on a ticket is bound to become discouraged easily if they have even a few consecutive losing tickets. Instead, the lottery gurus want to give you lots of small encouragement. Works for me!

What is wrong is my overall evaluation system. I'm happy with the Top Prize evaluation system but I need to come up with a new formula for the second system. $200 Million Supreme is a good game, if you have the resources to play it. Any input from readers to help me with this dilemma would be appreciated.

Personal Play

Four Bejeweled tickets included two winners totaling $65 boosting my Year to Date return to 94%. Thanks to a reader who sent me a comment about this subject. The 94% figure represents what I have received back of my total investment. Another way to express this is to say that I am down 6% on the year.

Thanks to readers who have sent me questions and information about their results. Some are bad, such as Frank in Scarborough who went 0 for 9 with Bejeweled, and some are good such as a reader in Mississauga  who took his entire profit of $150 and invested it in 15 Bejeweled tickets that returned $220. His win included a $100 winner which is something that has yet to happen to me. Congratulations.

Other News

I publish a link to blog updates through my Twitter address of @Usockem. Through that channel I discovered a Twitter address @ScratchOdds and its respective web site of www.scratchodds.com . The site allows you to download an "App" that provides the remaining prize data that the OLG publishes daily, to your mobile device. There is no evaluation of the data but it does allow you to check any games that you might be buying at the time of purchase. Not sure if the owners have a scheme to monetize the "App" but it is free for now.

This blog only updates weekly so I would recommend that players use the site to get up to date information on remaining prizes. But don't leave me forever - this is the only place where you can get commentary on the "Games People Play". Please follow us both on Twitter - I promise to follow you in return.

Sorry for the long post.

Doug