Christmas 2024 Scratch and Win Blog Update

Well, It's been a year since my last update. I hope that any subscribers who are still connected to this blog will be able to make use of this annual update. Before beginning with the update I have to note that there appears to be many more big money games than there used to be. At present, there are eight current games that sell for more than $30 including a $100 game. That is significantly more that it used to be. Lets get Going $2 Games Not much to recommend at present. $35K Birthday Bash #2437 and Holiday Gold #2467 are poor choices whereas Fall Cash #2454 is a neutral game. Double Dollars #2477 is a new game which makes it OK to play. If you want to go to a game with more smaller prizes, then Swift Slots #2469 is playable. The game offers 316,685 prizes out of a 1,260,000 ticket float. The trade off is that the maximum prize is $50 and you have one chance in 96 to hit one of those. The other $2 games offer Grand Prizes of $35,000 but there are only 3 of them as opposed to more than 9000 $50 prizes. $3 Games This is the category that a significant chunk of Instant Game winners choose to play. The $3 Bingo and $3 Crossword games have huge floats of over 10 million tickets per game. They are fun to play for many people at a low cost. But, are any of the games playable at this time? The answer is yes, but be careful. Crosword #3239 has only 14% of its float left and all the Grand Prizes of $50,000 have alrready been won. The good news is that a new version of the game (#3240) is also for sale and it is playable. So, when playing Crossword, check to be sure that your store is selling the good version of the game. 3X Money Multiplier #2428, Bingo #3040, Frosty Keno #2468, and Hidden Oasis #2468 are all not recommended. Frenzy Crowd #2455 and Hit 100 #2472 are both games with lots of small Grand Prizes and, as such, never get into the terrotory of being either good or bad. The playable games in this area, apart from Crossword #3240, are Gingerbread #2464 and Snakes and Ladders #2456. Both games have all their Grand Prizes left to be claimed. Gingerbread has thee bonus the both of the 2 2nd Place Prizes are also available to be won. Either game is a good choice. $4 Cash For Life My opinion on Cash For Life games is, in general, that if you want to play this game, buy Lotto tickets instead. The game has a huge float (8 million) but apart from the 4 Grand Prizes, the most you can win is $40. There are some other top prizes left but you have to scratch codes and submit entries on line for future draws. If you like this game, the current version is fine but remember that you have one chance in 2 million to win a grand prize. $5 Games This level contains the current top pick - #3421 Bingo Doubler. The game has sold 35% of its float and all five Grand Prizes have been claimed. That means that there are an additional 2 Grand Prize tickets out there somewhere that ought to have been claimed before now. Other playable games at this level include : 5X Money Multiplier, 5X Vortex, and 5X Merry Money. If you're looking for an Xmas scratch card for stockings, Merry Money is a good choice. Games to avoid at this level are: Blazing #2433, and Cross Tripler #3305 and #3306. $10 Games Good Choices in this area are: 10X Money Multiplier, Diamond Deluxe #2408, Ultra Red #2442, and Wishlist #2450. If I had to pick beween this group, I'd go with Cross Deluxe. $20 Games We're getting into the stratosphere here but if you like expensive scratch tickets, 20X Money Multipier is a top choice. All 4 Grand Prizes are outstanding and over half the float has been sold. That means that, like Bingo Doubler, there are two Grand Prize winners out there that should have been claimed already. Otherwise, Instant Gift Pack and Monopoly are playable. Stay away from Cashingo and 20X Supreme. A note about the Gift Pack - this used to be a $10 game. I guess inflation is being felt in the area of Scratch tickets. Remember that the Gift Pack functions as one unit. The value of any winners are assigned by pack and not the individual tickets contained in the pack. It's akin to a slot machine where the wheels are not independant. The result is a pre-determined outcome that is comprised of the wheels. That's why players come within a whisker of winning so often. The current Gift Pack also guarantees a prize. That's true, however, a million of the 1.7 million prizes are for $5. It's a good game to play but don't be fooled. $30 Games There are currently three $30 games in play. You need to demand value here. None of the current games are in positive territory, however, Giant Cash Stash #2441 and Pay Day #2420 are neutral. Avoid Platinum # 2206 and Cross Extreme #3470. $50 Games OK - this is getting crazy. I thought that we could not afford our groceries. $50 Scratch Tickets? Wow. 50K Casino is in positive territory. The Grand Prize is only $50,000 but there are 41 of them of which 14 remain unclaimed. In comparison, only 28% of the float remains. Mega #2059 and Super Strike #2479 are both neutral. And the Big Banana $100 Millionaire Multi is Neutral. 22 of its 25 $Million Grand Prizes remain outstanding. There are all sorts of ways to win in this game and lots of combinations but the bottom line is that the game returns 68.58% to players and 1 in 3.72 chances to win. That means I'd have to fork out $400 before expecting to win something. I'll let Elon Musk take a crack at this one. Summary The top two games are $5 Bingo Doubler #3421 and $20 20X Money Multipler #2431. You will note that did not offer an opinion on Big Spin and Pinko and Money Machine. That's because I'm having a little trouble understanding them and how they work. I'm going to figure them out over the next week and I will post a blog update over the Holidays that explains their methodology. Merry Christmas everyone. Doug

Top of the season to any folks who remain subscribed to this blog. It's been some time since I have posted. There are some games that are imminently playable, at this time, based upon my evaluation method. Whether you play those games or any others, my strongest advice is to avoid the games that are rated as being poor. It makes no sense to knowingly handicap your chances of winning in a game that is stacked against you under the best of circumstances. 

 $2 Games 

 These games are true stocking stuffers. There are presently three such games. Of the three, I recommend Money Multiplier (#2396). The other two games (Peppermint and Wild Aces) only have one grand prize each left to be claimed. I'm not crazy about games in that situation as if someone was to win the final grand prize tomorrow, you'd find yourself playing a game whose largest remaining prize is $1000 rather than the $35,000 Grand Prize. 

 $3 Games 

 These are the bread and butter games for the OLG. The Bingo and Crossword variations are very popular with the public. As a result, the OLG often runs two games of the same variety simultaneously. You need to be careful about which game you play. 

 A prime example are the current Bingo games. Game #3037 has no Grand Prizes remaining and 85% of its ticket float sold but version #3038 has sold 18% of its tickets and all the Grand Prizes, Second Prizes and Third Prizes are presently unclaimed. If you are buying this game, check the Game #. 

Crossword game #3237 is brand new and is just a slightly better version than the old version #3236. Either version is a reasonable choice. Avoid Lucky 7 #3236 as all of its Grand Prizes and Second Place prizes have already been claimed. Silver Bells #2399 is also a poor choice. 

Slingo #2374 is a good choice and Winter Tripler #2401 is an excellent choice. In fact, it is the best choice currently for sale with all of it's Grand Prizes remaining and one of its two second prizes still outstanding and 54% of its tickets sold. 

 Cash Lines #2376 is one of the flat games where the $3 investment has a Grand Prize of $100 but there are 22110 of them to be won. 

 $4 Cash For Life #1180 Cash For Life is another one of people's favourite games to play. The OLG sells these tickets en masse but it is a vertical game. The number of secondary prizes is very low. You either get a free ticket or the Grand Prize, as there is very little in between. If you like vertical games like this one, I recommend buying LottoMax or 649. 

 $5 Games 

 The best current game at this price range is 10X Wild #2386. Only 35% of the tickets are left to be sold which means that they are about to become harder to find. Stick with it - it's worth it. Bingo Doubler #2336 is not a bad choice and the rest of the games (Arctic Blast #2400, Bingo Double #2365, Cross Tripler #3302, Festive 5X #2402, Ht Slt Multi #2382, Moo La La #2388, Plinko #2280, The Big Spin #3109) are all neutral in their profile. 

 $10 Games 

 The best choice in this area is Bingo Multiplier #3081 with 4 of its 5 Grand Prizes left to be claimed and 42% of its float left to be sold. $500,000 Fortune is also a good choice with 44% of its float sold and 4 of its 6 Grand Prizes left to be claimed. 

 Stay away from The Bigger Spin #3152 as only 1 of its 5 Grand Prizes remains and 56% of its tickets remain to be sold. Red Hot 10X #2378 is also a poor choice. All the other games are reasonable choices with the slightest of edges awarded to Hit It Big #2387 and Holiday Rich #2390. 

 $20 Games 

 Now we're beginning to get into the pricey area. 20X Supreme #2204 and Instant Gift Pack #1930 are less than ideal while 20x Supreme is in a slightly positive position. It's the best of the three. 

 It surprises me that Christmas Games are sold, scratched, and claimed all before Christmas. I would have thought that almost all of those tickets were opened on Christmas morning. 

 $30 - $100 Games 

 The best game in this area is $50K #2385. This is an interesting game as the top prize is $50k and the ticket costs $50. The offset is that there are 40 Grand Prizes available and 40 $1000 second prizes. At present, 28 of the 40 Grand Prizes are left to be claimed and 47% of the float is left. We shall see how folks respond to this game. One would think that there is a price point where players will show resistance to the price of a scratch ticket. 

 Another good game here is Ultimate #2397. This game boasts the best chance to win $1m and sales are scheduled to end in early January. With only 14% of the float sold to date, it will be interesting to see how many of these tickets are ultimately sold. 

 Prestige #2201 and Platinum #2206 are neutral games and Mega is negative with 3 of 7 Grand Prizes left and 70% of the float left to be sold. 

 Summary 

 The best games currently for sale are $3 Winter Tripler, $10 Bingo Multiplier and $5 10X Wild. 

 I wish you all the best of luck. My goal for 2024 is to publish one blog entry per month. I also intend to run a Lottario trial that I will report upon as well. 

 Doug

Time to Reboot

Well, folks, it's been over a year and a half since I posted to this blog. I'll be surprised if any of the previous readers and contributors are still checking in on the blog. I guess I'll find out in short order. 

There are lots of topics to catch up upon with the wiley OLG and their new casino colleagues, betting sites and horse racing etc. All of this got started with the OLG Modernization report (https://about.olg.ca/who-we-are/changes-to-olg/) that predicted that after the OLG Modernized itself, it would increase its contributions to the Provincial Treasury by close to $1 Billion per year. Did they? Did the pandemic set them back? These are things to look at in the postings to come. 

Despite the efforts of the OLG to sell off its Instant Ticket business, it still operates within the OLG purview. I took a look at the current status of games for sale and decided to focus on all the $10 games. There are ten of them currently for sale which is quite a lot compared to before. The good news is that none of them are currently poor choices. Bigger Spin 3150 and Bingo Multiplier 3078 and Cross Deluxe 2279 are all neutral and they are the worst of the lot. The best of the lot are 250 Stacks 2323, Sonic Multiplier 2305, Turbo 2301 and X 2202 are all in positive territory. 

I'm going to run a trial of these games over the coming weeks to see if my luck continues to be as bad as it used to be. I suspect that the answer to that question is a resounding yes! 

I'm starting off the trial with a three ticket purchase: one each of Sonic Multiplier, $250,000 Stacks, and X. 

Anyone familiar with this blog would know that held on to an unproven theory that smaller communities tend to enjoy a disproportionate number of big Instant Ticket prizes. Seeing as I have now moved from Mississauga to Chatham, I fully expect my luck to improve. He he. 

Let me know in the comments if you're still around and if you have anything OLG related that you'd like me to look into. It's time to have some fun. Next week's blog will include a detailed breakdown of one of the $10 games. 

Doug 

It's Christmas Scratch and Win Time

 We may all be locked down but Instant Tickets remain available. The Christmas Games are on sale, however, as always, be sure to be playing the good games, or, more importantly, avoid the bad games! Here is the current list of games. Any game not mentioned falls into the category of "neutral" meaning that the availability of Grand Prizes is roughly in line with the size of the ticket float remaining to be sold. 

The Best Games

$10 Gifts of Gold #2219

$ 5  Merry Money #2228

$30 Cross Extrem #2188

Good Games

$5 5X The Cash #2212

$5 Triple Play #2213

$10 Cross Deluxe #2216

Poor Games

$1 Red Hot 100's #2192

$3 Uno #2165

$5 Bingo Doubler # 2180

$10 Bingo Multiplier #3073

$10 Chrome #2154

$10 Turbo #2198

$20 200x Multiplier #2056

I am following with some interest the arrival of single event sports wagering in Ontario. This is presently against the law but bill C-218 will change the Criminal Code to allow it. The Bill's sponsor is a PC MP from Saskatchewan, Kevin Waugh. The bill had been introduced in the previous parliament and is now playing catch-up. At the same time, the Provincial Budget Bill allows for the establishment of this form of wagering in Ontario. So, my question is, who is behind this initiative? It appears to be across parties and in every order of government. 

This type of wagering is presently allowed in 14 states with Ohio and Mass next to join the party. In Ontario, sports wagering is restricted to Pro-line which requires a minimum three game parlay for any wager. That portion of OLG revenue will be obliterated when single game wagering arrives. 

What I can't figure out is who is going to run the platform. I saw a video clip of a Windsor MP saying that its arrival will save Casino Windsor from the doom of cross border competition. The CEO of the Woodbine Entertainment Group said in a press release that if their group was not chosen to operate the platform, it could mean the end of horse racing in Ontario. Off shore established companies such as Bet Fair have actively barred Canadian residents from holding accounts as they want to secure the contract and they are already running the identical business in England. The OLG will want their slice of the pie in order to replace the lost Pro-line revenue that is going to result. So, who is the puppeteer here? Please reveal yourself. 

My best to all during these challenging times. 

Doug

The World of Scratch Tickets Returns to Normal

The OLG has opened its prize office again (with safety protocols) which has no doubt flushed out all the winners who had been unable to cash their prizes. Here is the current list of games along with my recommendations;

Very Good

$3 #3229 Crossword ; $5 #2212 5X The Cash ; $5 #3104 The Big Spin ; $10 #2190 Sonic Multiplier.

Good

$5 #2180 Bingo Doubler, $5 #2136 Cross Tripler; $10 #3147 The Bigger Spin; $20 #2151 Silver Stacks.

Poor

$2 # 2103 Cashilicious; $3 #3030 Bingo ; $10 #2154 Chrome; $20 #2056 200x Multiplier.

Terrible

$3 #2191 Cash Words; $5 #3103 The Big Spin. 

All other games are in the neutral range. 

I haven't been to my local seller since the virus arrived. I have decided that it is safe for me to walk across the street, put my mask on, and spend two minutes picking out some tickets. I hope that Dr Tam approves. 

OLG News

With the velocity that the news cycle works these days, I have no doubt that most people have forgotten that Premier Ford tasked the Finance Minister, Rod Phillips, with looking into the bonuses that were paid to OLG Executives during the pandemic. In my earlier post I pointed out that it was Mr Phillips himself who was the benefactor of similar bonuses when he served as the CEO of the OLG. I've been scouring the media for word on how Rod is handling his assigned task. So far, no news. Hmmm. 

I noted that a group titled "Casino Host Municipalities Group" has been lobbying Premier Ford to loosen the restrictions that casinos would have to comply with if they re-open. This group is comprised of the Mayors of municipalities where casinos are located. It must be nice for the casino companies to be getting Mayors of cities to be doing their bidding. Under phase 3 re-opening the casinos will only be able to admit 50 people at a time. The casino operators, through their spokespeople (The Mayors), say that they should be able to allow many more in and to do so safely. Let's see, you're sitting in a place with recirculated air for prolonged periods of time, enclosed with no windows, sharing chairs, touching slot machines and money. I can't think of any "business" at higher risk of contagion than a casino with the possible exception of a strip club. There is one of them in Toronto that re-opened and when some patrons tested positive some time later, the authorities were unable to contact trace the cases backwards as the patrons had provided false identities. Beautiful!

I'm confident that the Premier will give the casino operators the consideration that they are due - nada! And shame on the mayors who are being cuckolded by these casino poo-bahs. 

Doug

Strange Days Indeed

Now that we are 100 days into the world of Covid, I decided to do a blog update. Personally, I have not been purchasing any tickets but I can feel the urge returning, bit by bit. My local variety store has been open almost throughout this ordeal but I've been too cautious to go inside.That could change shortly.

When I reviewed the outstanding prize information that I use for the updates, I was shocked at the number of games that were in positive status. Many were in unbelievably strong "buy" positions. In fact, it was so strong as to not be possible.

After thinking about the situation for a while, the eureka moment struck me. What's going on is that OLG Prize Center has been closed since min-March. At present, people can cash winning tickets of less that $1000 at local retailers, if those retailers have a sufficient float. Tickets from between $1000 and $50,000 can be mailed in to the OLG. The website warns that the vetting process normally takes 4-6 weeks. This will be extended due to Covid. I also have to ask myself that if I had a $5000 winning ticket, would I mail it in? Not likely. All tickets of $50,000 or greater cannot be cashed at present.

The result is that web site shows many games that were launched over the past four months as having all or almost all of their Grand Prizes remaining outstanding. People are cashing small tickets at their local retailers so it appears that the games are proceeding as one would expect from that vantage point.

So, what games to play at this time? I would recommend either games that are brand new or the games with large numbers of grand prizes. In the latter category, it is very difficult for an imbalance to be created given the large number of winning tickets. If you're buying any other games there is a chance that the Grand Prizes have been either all or mostly won. On that basis, here is my recommended list of games:

$3 Bingo 3030 (beware and avoid version 3029)
$3 Crossword 3228 (beware versions 3226 and 3227)
$3 Wild $100  2177
$5 Bingo Doubler 2180 (beware version 2171)
$5 Fast $500 2183
$5 Tripling 2186
$10 5000 Flash 2174


OLG News

Of note is the $500 million line of credit that the Province has extended to the OLG. One would think that a positive side effect of the privatization of the the casinos would be that the off loading of risk would have worked in their favour. However, one of the reasons for the financial support is the "Contractual Payments to Casino Operators!" Huh? Someone needs to look under that stone.

The OLG also lost a court case recently as it relates to First Nations groups. The original agreements called for First Nations groups to receive 1.7% of all OLG revenue. It was the OLG's view that since the casinos had been privatized, the casino companies fell outside that agreement. Not so said a judge.

The OLG is now only reporting financially on an annual basis. They used to report quarterly but now the casino revenue is accruing to private businesses. I'm particularly interested in their revenue from www.playolg.ca . The OLG made lots of predictions about the growth in revenue from that source and that was before the Covid closures of casinos. It's my view that the revenue growth there will not be explosive. I have a friend who logged on, deposited $100 and promptly lost it on the virtual slots. He won't go back. There is something discomforting about losing money on a fake slot machine. I want to know if other people have the same reaction that I do.

Lastly, a feather for the OLG. Poster AJ had some damaged tickets that he mailed into the OLG. The OLG verified the tickets and sent him his winnings in prompt order. For more information, drop AJ a line.


Stay save everyone. The OLG needs your money.


Doug

Wild Cards #2166 is the Recommended Game

In the midst of a pandemic coupled with a stock market crash, thank goodness the world of scratch tickets remains unscathed.

The top game, Wild Cards, is presently enjoying a 47% positive Grand Prize imbalance. Further, 1 of 2 second prizes is outstanding and 2 of 4 third prizes. An estimated 70% of the float remains to be sold which means that the tickets should be readily available.

Players should look out for Super Money and Pac Man. All the Grand Prizes have been claimed for both games. For Super Money, the Grand Prize is $250,000 which, according to OLG rules, must result in the cancellation of the game. Lets see how long it takes them to get around to it seeing as an estimated 30% of the float remains to be sold.

Players face the situation that The Big Spin and Bingo Multiplier both have two versions of the game running at the same time. For the Big Spin, play Game #3103 and for Bingo Multiplier search the less abundant Game # 3070.

In the news this week is the announcement that Stephen Rigby is leaving his CEO position this coming summer. Rigby was the President of the Canada Border Services Agency before coming to the OLG. The articles in the paper list his salary at $800k with a severence package of $1 million. Let's not forget that he is not the first OLG President to reach those compensation highs. His predecessor, Rod Phillips, was the first to pull in big numbers. He achieved his during a period of Liberal government austerity. Senior public servant salaries had been frozen but Rod managed to spit that hook when Paul Godfrey doubled his annual bonus pushing his compensation into the same strata. Sneaky, eh? Oh yea, this is the same Rod Phillips who is now the Minister of Finance for the Government of Ontario.

I suspect that Rigby decided to jump before the unrealistic projections from the OLG Modernization Plan, drafted by Phillips, become seen as the pie in the sky falsehoods that were used to justify the privatization of the casinos in Ontario. Further, the OLG will be reducing staff in the coming year and no public executive wants to be on the bridge for that. Stay tuned to see who the next person with no gaming experience is who is chosen to head the gambling monopoly known as OLG.

$5	2166	Wild Cards	Excellent
$1	2152	Fiesta Treas	Very Good
$3	2080	Scrabble	Very Good
$3	2178	Slots	Very Good
$10	2130	Bigger Spin	Very Good
$10	2175	Monopoly	Very Good
$3	2182	Round Trip Rich	Good
$5	2138	Bingo Doubler	Good
$10	2170	Cross Deluxe	Good
$10	2054	Royale	Good
$10	3070	Bingo Multiplier	Good
$30	2055	Triple Million	Good
$50	2159	Classic Extra	Good
$1	2143	Emoji Money	Neutral
$2	2149	Movie Money	Neutral
$3	2177	Wild 100	Neutral
$3	3227	Cross Word	Neutral
$4	1175	Cash For Life	Neutral
$5	2171	Bingo Doubler	Neutral
$5	2135	Cross Tripler	Neutral
$5	2183	Fast 500	Neutral
$5	2126	Sizzling 5's	Neutral
$5	3103	The Big Spin	Neutral
$10	2155	Cash Blowout	Neutral
$10	3071	Bingo Multiplier	Neutral
$20	2052	Supreme	Neutral
$20	2168	Cash Club	Neutral
$20	2172	Super Set For Life	Neutral
$3	3029	Bingo	Poor
$20	2156	Celebrate 2020	Poor
$3	2142	Pac Man	Terrible
$5	3101	The Big Spin	Terrible
$10	2162	Super Money	Terrible

More Turnover

About half a dozen games have been eliminated since the last update. New games coming on board include a new Bingo Doubler (2171), Emoji Money (2143), Fast 500 (2183), and Cash Blowout (2155).

The size of the float for Scrabble 2080 is dwindling. You may have trouble finding those tickets. Apart from that one, Slots 2178 is the top rated game.

JD posted last week about an individual player who has knocked down several big pots in Point Spread Pools. It does strike me as strange and I am going to look into it. I doubt that there is anything fishy going on although one can never be certain of that. This chap, Jeffrey Cisma, obviously puts a lot of money into the pools. It may be that because he buys a lot of tickets that he can gain an advantage over players who only play one or two tickets per pool. By playing a lot he can take underdogs that players who only play a couple of tickets would stay away from. Regardless, he has to overcome a steep house cut. I'll keep you updated.

An article this past week indicated that the OLG will be reducing the size of its workforce. I never want to see someone lose their job but this move seems inevitable. They sold off the operating of all the casinos and their head office head count did not budge. The number of OLG staff who made the Sunshine List did not budge between 2018 and 2019. At the same time, the OLG's contributions to the Provincial Treasury failed to meet projections. Something needed to be done. Maybe OLG CEO Stephen Rigby could take a salary hair cut given the level of his current compensation.

$3	2080	Scrabble	Excellent
$3	2178	Slots	Excellent
$5	2166	Wild Cards	Very Good
$10	2054	Royale	Very Good
$20	2052	Supreme	Very Good
$5	2138	Bingo Doubler	Good
$10	2130	Bigger Spin	Good
$10	2175	Monopoly	Good
$10	3070	Bingo Multiplier	Good
$20	2156	Celebrate 2020	Good
$30	2055	Triple Million	Good
$50	2159	Classic Extra	Good
$1	2143	Emoji Money	Neutral
$1	2152	Fiesta Treas	Neutral
$2	2149	Movie Money	Neutral
$3	2177	Wild 100	Neutral
$3	3227	Cross Word	Neutral
$3	3029	Bingo	Neutral
$4	1175	Cash For Life	Neutral
$5	2098	Bling	Neutral
$5	2135	Cross Tripler	Neutral
$5	2183	Fast 500	Neutral
$5	2126	Sizzling 5's	Neutral
$10	2155	Cash Blowout	Neutral
$10	2170	Cross Deluxe	Neutral
$10	2129	25x Multiplier	Neutral
$20	2168	Cash Club	Neutral
$20	2172	Super Set For Life	Neutral
$3	2142	Pac Man	Poor
$5	2171	Bingo Doubler	Poor
$5	3101	The Big Spin	Poor
$3	3225	QFG Crossword	Terrible
$10	2162	Super Money	Terrible

Turnover Time

You know that the Christmas Season is behind us when the OLG retires all of it's Christmas games. Gone from play are: Fiesta Treasure, Peppermint, Bling, Bigger Spin, Instant Gift Pack and Festive Feast.

In the world of extremes, we lost More Lucky Lines last update with all three of its Grand Prizes left to be claimed. A nice little gift for the OLG. On the other extreme we have the Quest for Gold ticket which has the worst profile I have ever seen. The Top Prize list shows that all of the games Top prizes ($50k, $25k, $10k, $5k) have been claimed yet the game remains for sale. The OLG gains on the turns as well as the straightaways.

We have three new games this update including a new version of the $5 Bingo Doubler. If you like that game, try to pick up the earlier version 2138 as it is a better proposition at this point.

I picked up a Cross Deluxe ticket yesterday and was pleased that I won $10 with it. Lo and behold, when I checked it on the OLG App, I had won $40. That win offsets about half of the money I lost chasing a Grand Prize on More Lucky Lines. It is also another example that you should check every single ticket you purchase with either the App or the ticket checker in the store. This is not the first time that I have won a prize and did not know it. The OLG enjoys enough advantages in these games without me adding my own advancing senility to the list.

Keep warm.


Doug

$3	2177	Wild 100	New
$5	2171	Bingo Doubler	New
$10	2155	Cash Blowout	New
$3	3027	Bingo	Very Good
$3	2080	Scrabble	Very Good
$3	2178	Slots	Very Good
$10	2170	Cross Deluxe	Very Good
$10	2054	Royale	Very Good
$1	2152	Fiesta Treas	Good
$3	3227	Cross Word	Good
$5	2138	Bingo Doubler	Good
$5	2135	Cross Tripler	Good
$5	2086	Ruby 7's	Good
$5	2166	Wild Cards	Good
$10	3070	Bingo Multiplier	Good
$20	2156	Celebrate 2020	Good
$20	2052	Supreme	Good
$2	2161	Ontario Love	Neutral
$3	3029	Bingo	Neutral
$3	2142	Pac Man	Neutral
$3	2158	Strike Spare	Neutral
$5	2126	Sizzling 5's	Neutral
$20	2168	Cash Club	Neutral
$20	2172	Super Set For Life	Neutral
$30	2055	Triple Million	Neutral
$50	2159	Classic Extra	Neutral
$2	2149	Movie Money	Poor
$4	1175	Cash For Life	Poor
$10	2129	25x Multiplier	Poor
$5	3101	The Big Spin	Very Poor
$10	2162	Super Money	Very Poor
$2	2163	Stock Stuff	Terrible
$3	3225	QFG Crossword	Disaster

More Lucky Lines is Retired

As predicted, More Lucky Lines was retired at the end of December. Over 90% of the ticket float was sold and none of the 3 Grand Prizes were claimed. No doubt the OLG has its rationalization in hand and it is logical but the whole thing does not sit well with me. A poster to the last update suggested that all $3 games with ticket floats of 3 million tickets (small games) have a 3 month lifespan. That's curious. I've never heard that before but the post makes sense. I'm going to follow up with the OLG to confirm. At any rate, the game is gone.

I was able to discover some troves of tickets in the wind up of the game - 55 in total. Players scratching that many tickets should expect a return approaching the overall numbers for the game. Given that the Grand Prize winners win a much lower percentage of the pot than Lotto games, one should expect that a higher percentage of winnings are returned to the winners of smaller prizes. This proved to be the case for me. My total return was 65.45% of my investment versus the published return of 64.95%. One in every 3.24 tickets was a winner versus the published number of 3.27. One can't get much closer that that.

My current assessment of active games follows:

$3	2178	Slots	New
$20	2168	Cash Club	New
$20	2172	Super Set For Life	New
$3	3027	Bingo	Very Good
$5	2135	Cross Tripler	Very Good
$10	3070	Bingo Multiplier	Very Good
$10	2054	Royale	Very Good
$1	2152	Fiesta Treas	Good
$3	2080	Scrabble	Good
$5	2138	Bingo Doubler	Good
$5	2164	Holiday Win	Good
$5	2086	Ruby 7's	Good
$5	2126	Sizzling 5's	Good
$10	2130	Bigger Spin Win	Good
$10	2170	Cross Deluxe	Good
$20	2052	Supreme	Good
$3	3029	Bingo	Neutral
$3	3227	Cross Word	Neutral
$3	2142	Pac Man	Neutral
$3	2167	Peppermint	Neutral
$3	2158	Strike Spare	Neutral
$4	1175	Cash For Life	Neutral
$5	2098	Bling	Neutral
$10	1926	Instant Gift Pack	Neutral
$10	2162	Super Money	Neutral
$20	2156	Celebrate 2020	Neutral
$20	2169	Festive Fest	Neutral
$30	2055	Triple Million	Neutral
$50	2159	Classic Extra	Neutral
$2	2149	Movie Money	Poor
$2	2161	Ontario Love	Poor
$5	3101	The Big Spin	Poor
$5	2166	Wild Cards	Poor
$10	2129	25x Multiplier	Very Poor
$1	2160	Jewel Jackpot	Terrible
$2	2163	Stock Stuff	Terrible
$3	3225	QFG Crossword	Terrible

It does strike me that there appears to be more big ticket games ($10 and up) than what was the case a five years ago when this blog began. I'm going to run a comparison for discussion in the next update.

Happy Scratching

Doug

Christmas Instant Game Ratings

What follows is my current evaluation of all Instant Games. Remember that my ratings focus upon the percentage of Grand Prizes remaining in a game versus the percentage of the float that I estimate remains to be sold.

For example, More Lucky Lines, the top rated game, has all of its Grand Prizes of $75,000 left to be claimed and I estimate that 83% of the ticket float has been sold. That means that your chances to win a Grand Prize are 4 times greater than when the game began. Still unlikely, but these games give you the chance to play games with the best chance to win. The odds never change in the Lotto Games, only the size of the Grand Prize.

With that in mind, here are the current ratings as you pick up tickets for stocking stuffers:

$3

2144

More Lucky Lines

Top Rated

$10	2170	Cross Deluxe	Very Good
$10	2054	Royale	Very Good
$3	3027	Bingo	Very Good

$20	2052	Supreme	Good
$10	2129	25x Multiplier	Good
$10	2130	Bigger Spin Win	Good
$10	2162	Super Money	Good
$5	2093	Cross Tripler	Good
$5	2086	Ruby 7's	Good
$5	2126	Sizzling 5's	Good
$3	2142	Pac Man	Good
$3	2080	Scrabble	Good

$50	2159	Classic Extra	Neutral
$30	2051	Multi Million	Neutral
$30	2055	Triple Million	Neutral
$10	2157	Cash Out	Neutral
$5	2138	Bingo Doubler	Neutral
$5	2098	Bling	Neutral
$5	2135	Cross Tripler	Neutral
$5	2164	Holiday Win	Neutral
$5	3101	The Big Spin	Neutral
$3	3029	Bingo	Neutral
$3	3227	Cross Word	Neutral
$2	2149	Movie Money	Neutral

$20	2156	Celebrate 2020	Poor
$20	2169	Festive Fest	Poor
$10	1926	Instant Gift Pack	Poor
$4	1175	Cash For Life	Poor
$3	2167	Peppermint	Poor
$3	2158	Strike Spare	Poor
$2	2161	Ontario Love	Poor
$1	2152	Fiesta Treas	Poor
$1	2160	Jewel Jackpot	Poor

$3

3225

QFG Crossword

Very Poor

$2

2163

Stock Stuff

Terrible

If you're out looking for inexpensive tickets, avoid the Xmas themed Stocking Stuffer game. It's the worst game still being sold. Instead, choose 3027 Bingo or More Lucky Lines (if you can find any).

One last caution: if you're in the market for expensive tickets, exercise caution with the $50 Classic Extravaganza. The OLG is promoting this game with advertising. The audience may be under the impression that players receive seven $10 tickets for $50. This is not the case. If it were, I'd be asking my mom for an advance on my allowance to buy more. The game is just like any other. Your chances of winning a prize are 1 in 3.75 and the house take is 29.95% of all sales. There are seven tickets to scratch but the outcome for the package is predetermined. There are multiple games on each ticket which means that there is lots of action before you learn if your package was a winner. It is akin to getting more bang for your buck with a $5 Bingo Doubler versus a $3 Bingo ticket. Now, if you happen to have 7 grandkids and you want to give them the impression that Grandpa bought each of them a $10 Scratch Ticket, then by all means buy a package, open it up, and distribute the tickets as you please. Just don't be under the illusion that doing so is the same as buying 7 individual $10 tickets in other games. Cross Deluxe or Royale are the best games for the high end player. 

Merry Christmas to everyone. I'll be back next week with a breakdown of my mission to find and scratch as many More Lucky Lines tickets as I can find. If you can find any in your store, pick them up. The retailers will tell you that the game has been canceled. Not true - keep hunting. 

Doug

Lucky Lines - Game No 2144

The recommended game for play continues to be More Lucky Lines. One hundred and seventy-five of the 908 top prizes have been claimed. This suggests that 19% of the tickets remain to be sold. The reason that the game is recommended is that all three of the $75,000 Grand Prizes remain outstanding.

This means that your chances of winning a Grand Prize stand at one in 200,000 as opposed to one in a million at the outset of the game.

The game itself is very horizontal in its structure. This is to say that the majority of prizes are of the small variety. This is quite different from a game like LottoMax where there is one winner and everyone else fights over scraps. Your chances in that game of winning $20 are over 80-1. In a game like More Lucky Lines your return should mirror the published information. There is one winning ticket in every 3.27 tickets sold and the overall return is 64.95%. The more tickets one buys, the more likely it is that your results will mirror those numbers. I have purchased seven tickets so far. Four of them were winners returning a total of $22. Based on the numbers, I should have expected to have 2 winners and a total of $14. The game is flattened even further by having a second prize of only $5000. Most $3 games like this one have second prizes of $25,000.

The good news is that with this sort of churn, I can continue to reinvest winnings in pursuit of those three outstanding Grand Prizes. With a chance to win of one in 200,000, and with 7 tickets purchased, my chances were one in 30,000.




But there is a problem: the tickets are very hard to find. Every store I go into tells me that the game has been cancelled. This is not true, as of today. I estimate that 19% of the tickets remain to be sold which represents over 600,000 tickets. But the OLG is not providing the sellers with any more tickets. I've asked my local sellers to ask the OLG person why they are not providing them with tickets for this game. They look at me like I'm a martian.

There are five reasons why an existing game can be canceled. Here they are:

1. Game is sold out.

2. All top prizes are claimed for games with $100,000 or greater top prizes.

3. Average weekly sales reflect significantly decreased customer demand and a new replacement game is planned.

4. Quality issue with game in market.

5. Security issue with game in market.

Experience tells me that if the OLG were to cancel this game now, only reason number 3 could apply. The wicked aspect of this is that sales are largely a function of availability. The OLG can argue that the game is no longer popular as there are no tickets being sold. It's a self fulfilling prophecy if you don't offer the tickets for sale. The conundrum is that  the OLG has sold over two million tickets for this game and they have yet to give away a Grand Prize. If you were to buy tickets to a raffle and found out later that no prize was given away, how would that sit with you?

I imagine that inside the bowels of OLG headquarters there is thinking going on that goes as follows:

1. If every ticket for this game was to be sold, the profit would be $3,303,339. 
2. As of today, 81% of the tickets have been sold (2,545,000) with an expected profit of $2,675,748. 
3. It is expected that with that volume of tickets sold, at least 2 of the 3 Grand Prizes should have been claimed. 
4. If the game is canceled today, there would be an extra $225,000 added to the profit for the game ($75,000 x 3) as those prizes would remain with the OLG.
5. The total return on the tickets not yet sold should be $630,000. But, with the 3 outstanding prizes still up for grabs, the OLG will have to pay off 3 - $75,000 winners in addition to all of the other winners. 
6. By canceling the game now and not selling the remaining tickets, the profit for the game will be increased by 10%. 

Do you see the ethical dilemma? I suspect that the OLG has a blind spot here based on what I have seen before in similar circumstances. In general, tickets begin to become scarce once 90% of the tickets have been sold. The scarcity here began when slightly more than 20% of the tickets remained.

My advice is to get out there now and try to find tickets for this game before the bean counters at OLG put their interests ahead of yours. Let me know how you make out and, as always, only play within your personal budget. The odds are always against you.


Doug

Xmas 2019 Instant Game Review

Given that we are approaching the 2019 Christmas season, I thought that I would provide an update on all of the current OLG Instant Games.

There have been some articles in the Sun this week on the OLG, it's Sunshine List employees and its executive compensation. I'll be commenting on those subjects in addition to further Instant Game updates as we approach the time when Instant Game sales reach their zenith.

Cheers.

Cost	Name	Game	Details	Recommendation
$1.00	Fiesta Treas	2152	New game.	Neutral
$1.00	Jewel Jackpot	2160	Game progressing normally.	Neutral
$2.00	Ontario Love	2161	Only 1 grand prize and 1 second prize left.	Caution
$2.00	Stock Stuff	2163	Slight edge to players.	Good
$3.00	Bingo	3027	57% of game sold; 8 of 10 grand prizes left, 1 of 7 second prices left.	Good
$3.00	More Lucky	2144	23% of game remains; all 3 grand prizes remaining, 2 of 4 second prizes left.	Best Play
$3.00	Peppermint	2167	69% of game sold; 1 of 3 grand prizes left.	Poor
$3.00	QFGCrossword	3225	37% of game remaining; 23% of grand prizes and 40% of second prizes.	Poor
$3.00	Scrabble	2080	Game has sold 12% of tickets without surrendering a grand or second prize.	Good
$3.00	Strike Spare	2158	56% of float sold; 1 of 3 grand prizes and 4 of 10 second prizes left.	Poor
$3.00	Words Friends	2146	12% of game left; all grand prizes and second prizes have been claimed.	Terrible
$4.00	Cash for Life	1175	61% of the game has been sold. A vertical game . 42% of Prizes left.	Poor
$5.00	Bingo Doubler	2138	65% of game sold; claimed prizes in line.	Neutral
$5.00	Bling	2098	67% of game sold; claimed prizes in line.	Neutral
$5.00	Chill Play	2148	40% of game sold; 6 of 10 $100k prizes left, 5 of 6 $50k prizes left.	Good
$5.00	Cross Tripler	2093	Less than 10% of game left. Tickets will be hard to find. 3 of 15 grand prizes left.	Good
$5.00	Cross Tripler	2135	New game	Neutral
$5.00	Holiday Win	2164	61% of game sold; 4 of 7 grand prizes left, both $25k second prizes left.	Poor
$5.00	Ruby 7's	2086	31% of game left; 5 of 10 grand prizes and 1 of 3 second prizes left.	Neutral
$5.00	The Big Spin	3101	75% of game remains; all 8 Grand Prizes remain.	Good
$10.00	25xMultiplier	2129	44% of game remaining; 4 of 8 $250k grand prizes left.	Poor
$10.00	Bigger Spin	2125	Game verging on being pulled; 1 of 6 grand prizes left.	Poor
$10.00	Bigger Spin	2130	Game just getting underway; all 6 grand prizes remaining.	Neutral
$10.00	Cash Out	2157	15% of game remaining; 1 of 5 $250k prizes remain.	Poor
$10.00	Cross Delux	2114	Only 6% of game remain. Tickets will be scarce. 1 of 6 grand prizes remain.	Poor
$10.00	Cross Delux	2170	86% of game remains; 88% of grand prizes remain, 1 of 2 $25k second prizes remain.	Neutral
$10.00	Instant GP	1926	New game, only 6% sold, all grand and second prizes remain.	Neutral
$10.00	Royale	2054	45% of game remaining, 8 of 10 $1m grand prizes remain, 1 of 2 $500k second prizes.	Very Good
$20.00	Celebrate 2020	2156	Only 8% of game sold but 2 of 5 grand prizes claimed and both second prizes claimed.	Terrible
$20.00	Festive Font	2169	80% of game remains, 4 of 5 $250k grand prizes remain in addition to second prize.	Neutral
$20.00	Supreme	2052	72% of game remains, 4 of 10 $2m grand prizes remain, 2 of 5 $200k second prizes.	Very poor
$30.00	Multi Million	2051	23% of game sold, 2 of 10 $2.5m prizes remain, 1 of 5 $250k second prizes.	Poor
$50.00	Classic Extra	2157	75% of game remains; 6 of 7 grand prizes of $500k left and 1 of 4 $250k second prizes.	Good