Cash For Life #1167 Comes From Nowhere To Top The List

The OLG cleared house this week and after all the dust settled, Cash For Life is left occupying the top perch. I have never seen a game move up as significantly over the course of one week. A little over 200,000 tickets were sold last week without revealing the last Grand Prize. Your chances to win that prize are one in 1.9 million which is not very encouraging but the game offers a Top Prize ratio of 1.35 which is the best of any game currently for sale. The game has a Small Prize Payback figure of 57.1% which is .7% below the average of all games.

For those of you who are sitting on the $2 off on a CFL game included in the Gift Pack, you can get good value by using the ticket now rather than waiting for the new version of the game. If you do, check the Outstanding Prize list because if that ticket is redeemed, the game will take a serious hit.

Unfortunately, I can't include a good copy of the ticket as the new CFL game has been listed without the game actually being introduced for sale. It's not your eyes that are giving you problems, it's the file.

Top Rated Games

1. $4 Cash For Life #1167 - Came out of nowhere to take top spot.
2. $5 Wild Card #1854 - Lost a Grand Prize but still hanging in there.
3. $10 Diamond #1781 - Steadily improving its position.
4. $3 Cashingo #1847 - Last remnant of the good $3 games.
5. $5 Tripling 7's #1858 - Solid choice. 

Games to Avoid

1. $2 10X The Money #1839 - Last member of the family left alive. Kill it!
2. $3 More Lucky Lines #1829 - Love to hate this game.
3. $2 Polar Bear #1862 - Lost a GP early on. 
4. $1 Lucky Lines #1826 - No confusion - they both stink
5. $3 Bingo #3016 - 1 of 10 GP left and 24% of the float. 

Games With Lots Of Small Grand Prizes

1. 500 Frenzy
2. Fast 200's
3. Red Hot 50's

Games To Play If All You Want Is A Grand Prize

1. Wild Card
2. Cash For Life
3. Diamond
4. Spectacular
5. Extreme

Games Devoid of Grand Prizes

• 10X The Money
• More Lucky Lines

Comings and Goings

It was house cleaning week at the OLG. Three $1 games were all retired in addition to Sweet Cash. Of all those games, Bingo Express was the only one that I'm sorry to see go.

No new games were introduced. The total ticket float sits at 90 million which is normal. I expect that our friends will let that drop a bit before the new jumbo CFL game comes on line.

Personal Play

Nothing to report

Post Script

Excellent comments this week by an assortment of commentators. They are informative, helpful, and respectful. I thank all contributors for their effort and wisdom. Special note to Randy for his analysis.

The retirement of Bingo Express is welcome as it allows us to change the channel a bit. I have enjoyed the Spectacular versus Gift Pack debate. For me, neither game is of particular interest at this time but those gift packs do give you lots of tickets to scratch plus $2 off on what is now the top rated game. Still, the Grand Prize situation is of concern....

An interesting article that speaks to the elasticity of funds being expended on all kinds of gaming: http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/daily-fantasy-sports-spend-impacting-lottery-casino-play-538475311.html . I'm not sure if fantasy sports games takes away from lottery play or not. Lets remember that the OLG undertook its entire Modernization plan with the projection that, once completed, it would increase its contribution to the Provincial Treasury by over $1 billion per year. I've always wondered what they will say when it doesn't happen. Maybe excuses like the one above will make it into their speaking points.

News also from the OLG that progress is being made on the Northern and South Western bundles.

http://www.saultstar.com/2015/11/24/final-step-before-service-provider-chosen-to-run-certain-day-to-day-gaming-operations-for-regional-gaming-bundles

The Northern Bundle returned total revenue of $30 million in the first quarter of 15/16. Roughly the equivalent of the slots at Ajax Downs. With three existing points and the potential to build two new facilities in North Bay and Kenora, I am curious to learn how much a private contractor will pay for the right to invest and share profits. I cannot see how the OLG will ever see an increase in returns from this area. The South Western bundle returned $56 million or roughly the equivalent of the slots at Georgian Downs. In total the nine locations and potentially two new ones represented 17% of the total OLG returns.

And lastly, Tommy Middle Finger has indicated that his time spent entertaining us with his insights and analysis (all done with panache) will be reduced in the future due to competing priorities. See his post at the end of last weeks comments. Tommy has made this board much better than it would otherwise have been. I thank him for sharing his wisdom and sense of humour with us.



Doug

Bingo Express #1823 - Good Luck Finding Any

With it being so long after de-activation date, it is unlikely that any given retailer will have any of the top rated game left to sell. Unopened packages have been returned and stragglers are likely to be already sold. This is reflected in the sales of the game that have ground to a halt. So, it looks like those two outstanding Grand Prizes of $10,000 each will be credited to the OLG. Time to move on.

If you can find any - they're worth the buck.

Top Rated Games

1. $1 Bingo Express #1823 - Dead man walking
2. $5 Wild Card #1854 - Heir apparent. 4 of 7 Grand Prizes remain.
3. $5 Tripling 7's #1858 - Very good low prize availability and a positive ratio
4. $3 Super Bingo #3018 - Best small prize availability of any game
5. $3 Keno #1416 - another game with very good small prize availability

Games to Avoid

1. $1 5X The Money #1838 - The counter weight to Bingo Express
2. $3 Sweet Cash #1852 - Largest prize left is $1000
3. $3 More Lucky Lines #1829 - Top Prize ratio is .49.
4. $2 Polar Bear #1862 - Who said that they didn't have the heart to scratch them. Too late!
5. $2 10X The Money #1839 - Nothing to recommend

Rating of Games with 1000's of Grand Prizes

1. Fast 200's
2. 500 Frenzy
3. Red Hot 50's

Best Games If All You Want Is A Grand Prize

1. $10 Spectacular
2. $5 Wild Card
3. $10 Diamond
4. $20 Extreme
5. $4 Cash For Life

Games Devoid Of Grand Prizes

• More Lucky Lines
• Sweet Cash
• 5X The Money

Comings and Goings

$10 Cash Blast and $3 Crossword #3209 dropped off of the radar this week. The latter was one of the top rated games but at 6% of the float left and a new game already selling, it was time.

No new games were added although I was expecting the new Cash For Life to be there. I guess the OLG wants everyone to use their $2 off coupon from the Gift Pack on the old version.

Total tickets available now total 95 million - just a bit above normal.

Personal Play

Nothing to Report

Post Script

CL66 posted a comment this week concerning my evaluation method. For those who are interested, my formula takes into account the percentage of the revenue for a game that is dedicated to prizes of less than $100. The second factor is the ratio of Top Prizes left to be claimed and the Money associated with those prizes. I adjust those numbers based upon the current O/S prize list in an attempt to equalize the factors.

I am generally happy with the formula although it sometimes produces results that makes me raise my eyebrow.

CL66 uses a more linear method whereby he creates a dozen measurement points and rates every game from best to last based upon the particular point. He then sums up the ratings to achieve his overall rating.

Both systems have their flaws and each is available for your use as a visitor to the blog. The best approach may be to ignore both of the methods and go with your gut.

There were some comments last week about Pro-Line. I'd love to read comments from any visitor(s) who play it. In my opinion, the posted odds are terrible. Playing a $1 Scratch Ticket is a 20% better choice. Still, I have been known to dabble on some NFL games but for anyone who wants to risk more than a couple of bucks, there are legal off shore sites that provide single game wagering and better odds. An example is www.betfair.com . This is a publicly traded legal company in England. It's not legal for Canadians to use the site but there is only one reason for that - the OLG wishes to enforce its monopoly on the environment and you are their imprisoned customer. Hooey to that.

Finally, thanks to Sharron who posted an actual $100,000 winning scratch ticket this past week. https://www.dropbox.com/s/xpbf8ov2wfc14ue/2015-11-18%2012.02.58.png?dl=0 . I've seen the Mona Lisa and she's got nothing on that baby!

Doug

Bingo Express #1823 Remains the Top Choice

Ten days since the last update and both of the Bingo Express Grand Prizes remain outstanding. Your chances to win one are now less than 1 in 200,000 which is the best of any game currently for sale (excepting the games with plentiful Grand Prizes). The game also returns 58.7% of its revenue to winners of $100 or less. Of course, in this game, that is ALL of the prizes with the exception of those two Grand Prizes. With 13% of the float left to claim and the game having been deactivated, your chances of finding tickets will be a challenge. Time to suss out those out-of-the-way retailers.

Top Rated Games

1. $1 Bingo Express #1823 - Worth your $1 investment.
2. $3 Crossword #3209 - Tickets are scarce but great small prize return.
3. $3 Crossword #3210 - Lots of these so if you can't find the sister game, not a bad choice.
4. $5 Wild Card #1854 - 4 of 7 Grand Prizes left and 27% of the float. Strong pick.
5. $3 Super Bingo #3018 - Fantastic small prize ratio.

Games to Avoid

1. $1 5X The Money #1838 - Horrible game.
2. $3 More Lucky Lines #1829 - feast or famine. It's a famine for this version. 
3. $2 10X The Money #1839 - keep flogging the two black sheep of this family.
4. $10 Instant Game Pack #1922 - Noooo. I wanted to buy some. 
5. $2 Golden 7's #1824 - Terrible small prize return. 

Best Plentiful Small Grand Prize Games

1. Fast 200's
2. 500 Frenzy
3. Red Hot 50's

Games to Play If All You Want Is A Grand Prize

1. Cash Blast #1819
2. Wild Card #1854
3. Diamond #1781

Games Devoid Of Grand Prizes

• 5X The Money
• More Lucky Lines
• Sweet Cash

Comings and Goings

Crystal 7's was retired this week. A welcome choice as  it was devoid of Grand Prizes and was a $5 game which made it especially distasteful.

New on the scene were Merry Money and The $10 Holiday Gift Pack. Good reviews on both are contained in the comments to last week's post. I rank Merry Money 24th as two of its Grand Prizes have already been claimed after an estimated 14% of the float having been sold.

I desperately wanted to play the Gift Pack but it returns only 53.7% of its revenue to winners of less than $100. Its Grand Prize is only $50,000 and although there are 6 of them, that's still only 1.7% of total revenue which is easily the worst of all $10 - $20 games. The game only offers a total return of 65% instead of the usual 70% for $10 games. There is the $2 off of a $4 Cash For Life ticket and that has to be worth the missing 5% as was pointed out. What the heck, I'll buy some anyways.

If you want to be entertained read the string of messages between Lloyd and Tommy last week. It's good. If this blog serves no other purpose than to have rescued some of Lloyd's profits from the trash bin , then it has been a success.

Personal Play

Nothing to report

Post Script

Lots of discussion on checking tickets before discarding them. I could not agree more. I had a $30 winning Cross Tripler ticket that , even after being pleasantly surprised at the ticket checker, I could not see how I had won. I took the redeemed ticket home and it had to take me 15 minutes for me to see the mistake I had made.

I wonder what the estimated slippage is at the OLG? They know exactly what tickets were redeemed and the accounting for all redeemed prizes. What percentage of winning tickets are sold but never cashed? Racetracks enjoy the same sort of bonus. I would estimate it at about 5%. Any other opinions?

Interesting comments on the upcoming Cash For Life game by CL66. The game was not listed on the O/S Prize Listing today so it has not made it into the ratings. Its inclusion will bring the number of tickets for sale to about 115,000,000, well above the normal supply of about 90,000,000. There's no shortage of choice these days.

An amusing story about a chap who is suing Lotto Quebec because quick pick numbers are removed from the RNG for a period of a few weeks thereby creating the possibility that those very excluded sets of numbers may be the winning numbers.

http://on.thestar.com/1HjiKhq

I was shaking my head until I reached the part of the story where we learn that this is the same guy whose winning Lotto Max ticket was processed 9 seconds after the deadline. He lost that suit too. I pity the chap but this is no way to deal with his angst.

By the way, has anyone claimed that $64 Million Lotto Max prize in Mississauga yet? I'll bet that the DART team is on the job.


Doug

Scrabble Retired - Bingo Express #1823 Takes Over Top Spot

"For the loser now, Will be the later to win, For the times they are a changin." - Bob Dylan

In the three years that I have been writing this blog, never has a $1 game reached the #1 spot. These games operate under a house advantage of 40% which makes it nigh impossible to compete against games that can have an advantage of up to 10%. But there is a first time for everything.

Bingo Express has 2 of its 4 Grand Prizes of $10,000 left to claim and an estimated 13% (+/- 3%) of its tickets to sell. Your estimated chance to win one is one in 200,000 for your $1 investment. In total, 30% of all the money associated with the top prizes is available to be won with the 129 top tickets left to be claimed. If you can find any of these babies around, invest a few dollars.

Top Rated Games

1. $1 Bingo Express #1823 - Take a shot at $10k
2. $3 Crossword #3209 - A solid game but tickets are rare.
3. $3 Cashingo #1847 - All 4 GPs remain and only half of the ticket float.
4. $5 Wild Card #1854 - 1/3 of float left and over 1/2 of Top Prize money.
5. $3 Crossword #3210 - worthy choice if you can't find #3209. 

Games to Avoid

1. $1 5X The Money #1838 - Keep flogging OLG: No one's buying them. 
2. $3 More Lucky Lines #1829 - Twice all the Grand Prizes went early. Hmmmm.
3. $5 Crystal 7's #1848 - Keeping the GP< $100K allows OLG to keep the game alive. 
4. $2 10X The Money #1839 - Curious how the two good versions of family are retired. 
5. $3 Sweet Cash #1852 - No GPs left. Withering on the vine. 

Game Ratings For Low Grand Prize Options

1. Fast 200's
2. 500 Frenzy
3. Red Hot 50's

Best Games If All You Want Is The Grand Prize

1. $10 Cash Blast
2. $5 Wild Card
3. $20 Spectacular

Games Devoid Of Grand Prizes

• Crystal 7s
• Sweet Cash
• More Lucky Lines
• 5X The Money

Comings and Goings

The OLG certainly wants us to be filling our stockings this year. A number of new games have come on line bringing the total number of games for sale to 35. Three of them are contained within the "Family Pack" so you could argue that the total is 33. Still a lot, and those games represent 108 million tickets. That is about 15% above the normal inventory. We should look forward to seeing either the retirement of some games or a passive period of time upcoming.

A poster mentioned recently that a new version of Ontario Millions appeared on the Outstanding Prize list then just as quickly disappeared. It was an earlier version of this game that first "pulled my chain" and led to the creation of this blog. That version was withdrawn with 2 of its 3 million dollar Grand Prizes outstanding after having sold 80% of its float. The OLG told me at that time that Ontario Millions would never return as it had proven not to be popular with Ontarians. I guess 3 years is considered to be for ever in the modern world :-) I'll be watching this development closely.

Personal Play

No activity to report.

Post Script

One of our early posters, Shelley, has mentioned that she received spam that she feels is associated with this blog. It is not unusual for me to get spam as I suspect that clever people can find out the e-mail address associated with the site. When I flip to the blog to delete the post it turns out that the message was not posted to the comments. Now we can see that some even smarter people are able to harvest the email addresses to posters. I'm sorry about that but I'm not sure what can be done. Suggestions are welcome

There have been many comments posted to the blog since the last update. They represent lots of interesting commentary and I enjoy reading them all. I salute all posters for always ensuring that their posts are respectful and positive. That is not always the case on the internet. It speaks to class of Scratch Ticket players, IMO :-)

I should comment that I was glad to see the labour conflict settled between the OLG and its soon to be "modernized" staff. We can all play knowing that those employees have agreed to the terms of their employment. The conflict had the effect of presenting the OLG's Media Relations Manager to the public, Toni Bitonti. Here he is! A fine looking and amiable chap.




I close with a link to an OLG job posting whose credentials, I believe, are met by many of the posters to this blog. http://bit.ly/1l6BE6C  I have never fancied the prospect of living in Sault Sainte Marie but that salary looks awfully attractive....


Remembrance Day is a week from today.


Doug