Wild Cards #2166 is the Recommended Game

In the midst of a pandemic coupled with a stock market crash, thank goodness the world of scratch tickets remains unscathed.

The top game, Wild Cards, is presently enjoying a 47% positive Grand Prize imbalance. Further, 1 of 2 second prizes is outstanding and 2 of 4 third prizes. An estimated 70% of the float remains to be sold which means that the tickets should be readily available.

Players should look out for Super Money and Pac Man. All the Grand Prizes have been claimed for both games. For Super Money, the Grand Prize is $250,000 which, according to OLG rules, must result in the cancellation of the game. Lets see how long it takes them to get around to it seeing as an estimated 30% of the float remains to be sold.

Players face the situation that The Big Spin and Bingo Multiplier both have two versions of the game running at the same time. For the Big Spin, play Game #3103 and for Bingo Multiplier search the less abundant Game # 3070.

In the news this week is the announcement that Stephen Rigby is leaving his CEO position this coming summer. Rigby was the President of the Canada Border Services Agency before coming to the OLG. The articles in the paper list his salary at $800k with a severence package of $1 million. Let's not forget that he is not the first OLG President to reach those compensation highs. His predecessor, Rod Phillips, was the first to pull in big numbers. He achieved his during a period of Liberal government austerity. Senior public servant salaries had been frozen but Rod managed to spit that hook when Paul Godfrey doubled his annual bonus pushing his compensation into the same strata. Sneaky, eh? Oh yea, this is the same Rod Phillips who is now the Minister of Finance for the Government of Ontario.

I suspect that Rigby decided to jump before the unrealistic projections from the OLG Modernization Plan, drafted by Phillips, become seen as the pie in the sky falsehoods that were used to justify the privatization of the casinos in Ontario. Further, the OLG will be reducing staff in the coming year and no public executive wants to be on the bridge for that. Stay tuned to see who the next person with no gaming experience is who is chosen to head the gambling monopoly known as OLG.

$5	2166	Wild Cards	Excellent
$1	2152	Fiesta Treas	Very Good
$3	2080	Scrabble	Very Good
$3	2178	Slots	Very Good
$10	2130	Bigger Spin	Very Good
$10	2175	Monopoly	Very Good
$3	2182	Round Trip Rich	Good
$5	2138	Bingo Doubler	Good
$10	2170	Cross Deluxe	Good
$10	2054	Royale	Good
$10	3070	Bingo Multiplier	Good
$30	2055	Triple Million	Good
$50	2159	Classic Extra	Good
$1	2143	Emoji Money	Neutral
$2	2149	Movie Money	Neutral
$3	2177	Wild 100	Neutral
$3	3227	Cross Word	Neutral
$4	1175	Cash For Life	Neutral
$5	2171	Bingo Doubler	Neutral
$5	2135	Cross Tripler	Neutral
$5	2183	Fast 500	Neutral
$5	2126	Sizzling 5's	Neutral
$5	3103	The Big Spin	Neutral
$10	2155	Cash Blowout	Neutral
$10	3071	Bingo Multiplier	Neutral
$20	2052	Supreme	Neutral
$20	2168	Cash Club	Neutral
$20	2172	Super Set For Life	Neutral
$3	3029	Bingo	Poor
$20	2156	Celebrate 2020	Poor
$3	2142	Pac Man	Terrible
$5	3101	The Big Spin	Terrible
$10	2162	Super Money	Terrible

More Turnover

About half a dozen games have been eliminated since the last update. New games coming on board include a new Bingo Doubler (2171), Emoji Money (2143), Fast 500 (2183), and Cash Blowout (2155).

The size of the float for Scrabble 2080 is dwindling. You may have trouble finding those tickets. Apart from that one, Slots 2178 is the top rated game.

JD posted last week about an individual player who has knocked down several big pots in Point Spread Pools. It does strike me as strange and I am going to look into it. I doubt that there is anything fishy going on although one can never be certain of that. This chap, Jeffrey Cisma, obviously puts a lot of money into the pools. It may be that because he buys a lot of tickets that he can gain an advantage over players who only play one or two tickets per pool. By playing a lot he can take underdogs that players who only play a couple of tickets would stay away from. Regardless, he has to overcome a steep house cut. I'll keep you updated.

An article this past week indicated that the OLG will be reducing the size of its workforce. I never want to see someone lose their job but this move seems inevitable. They sold off the operating of all the casinos and their head office head count did not budge. The number of OLG staff who made the Sunshine List did not budge between 2018 and 2019. At the same time, the OLG's contributions to the Provincial Treasury failed to meet projections. Something needed to be done. Maybe OLG CEO Stephen Rigby could take a salary hair cut given the level of his current compensation.

$3	2080	Scrabble	Excellent
$3	2178	Slots	Excellent
$5	2166	Wild Cards	Very Good
$10	2054	Royale	Very Good
$20	2052	Supreme	Very Good
$5	2138	Bingo Doubler	Good
$10	2130	Bigger Spin	Good
$10	2175	Monopoly	Good
$10	3070	Bingo Multiplier	Good
$20	2156	Celebrate 2020	Good
$30	2055	Triple Million	Good
$50	2159	Classic Extra	Good
$1	2143	Emoji Money	Neutral
$1	2152	Fiesta Treas	Neutral
$2	2149	Movie Money	Neutral
$3	2177	Wild 100	Neutral
$3	3227	Cross Word	Neutral
$3	3029	Bingo	Neutral
$4	1175	Cash For Life	Neutral
$5	2098	Bling	Neutral
$5	2135	Cross Tripler	Neutral
$5	2183	Fast 500	Neutral
$5	2126	Sizzling 5's	Neutral
$10	2155	Cash Blowout	Neutral
$10	2170	Cross Deluxe	Neutral
$10	2129	25x Multiplier	Neutral
$20	2168	Cash Club	Neutral
$20	2172	Super Set For Life	Neutral
$3	2142	Pac Man	Poor
$5	2171	Bingo Doubler	Poor
$5	3101	The Big Spin	Poor
$3	3225	QFG Crossword	Terrible
$10	2162	Super Money	Terrible

Turnover Time

You know that the Christmas Season is behind us when the OLG retires all of it's Christmas games. Gone from play are: Fiesta Treasure, Peppermint, Bling, Bigger Spin, Instant Gift Pack and Festive Feast.

In the world of extremes, we lost More Lucky Lines last update with all three of its Grand Prizes left to be claimed. A nice little gift for the OLG. On the other extreme we have the Quest for Gold ticket which has the worst profile I have ever seen. The Top Prize list shows that all of the games Top prizes ($50k, $25k, $10k, $5k) have been claimed yet the game remains for sale. The OLG gains on the turns as well as the straightaways.

We have three new games this update including a new version of the $5 Bingo Doubler. If you like that game, try to pick up the earlier version 2138 as it is a better proposition at this point.

I picked up a Cross Deluxe ticket yesterday and was pleased that I won $10 with it. Lo and behold, when I checked it on the OLG App, I had won $40. That win offsets about half of the money I lost chasing a Grand Prize on More Lucky Lines. It is also another example that you should check every single ticket you purchase with either the App or the ticket checker in the store. This is not the first time that I have won a prize and did not know it. The OLG enjoys enough advantages in these games without me adding my own advancing senility to the list.

Keep warm.


Doug

$3	2177	Wild 100	New
$5	2171	Bingo Doubler	New
$10	2155	Cash Blowout	New
$3	3027	Bingo	Very Good
$3	2080	Scrabble	Very Good
$3	2178	Slots	Very Good
$10	2170	Cross Deluxe	Very Good
$10	2054	Royale	Very Good
$1	2152	Fiesta Treas	Good
$3	3227	Cross Word	Good
$5	2138	Bingo Doubler	Good
$5	2135	Cross Tripler	Good
$5	2086	Ruby 7's	Good
$5	2166	Wild Cards	Good
$10	3070	Bingo Multiplier	Good
$20	2156	Celebrate 2020	Good
$20	2052	Supreme	Good
$2	2161	Ontario Love	Neutral
$3	3029	Bingo	Neutral
$3	2142	Pac Man	Neutral
$3	2158	Strike Spare	Neutral
$5	2126	Sizzling 5's	Neutral
$20	2168	Cash Club	Neutral
$20	2172	Super Set For Life	Neutral
$30	2055	Triple Million	Neutral
$50	2159	Classic Extra	Neutral
$2	2149	Movie Money	Poor
$4	1175	Cash For Life	Poor
$10	2129	25x Multiplier	Poor
$5	3101	The Big Spin	Very Poor
$10	2162	Super Money	Very Poor
$2	2163	Stock Stuff	Terrible
$3	3225	QFG Crossword	Disaster

More Lucky Lines is Retired

As predicted, More Lucky Lines was retired at the end of December. Over 90% of the ticket float was sold and none of the 3 Grand Prizes were claimed. No doubt the OLG has its rationalization in hand and it is logical but the whole thing does not sit well with me. A poster to the last update suggested that all $3 games with ticket floats of 3 million tickets (small games) have a 3 month lifespan. That's curious. I've never heard that before but the post makes sense. I'm going to follow up with the OLG to confirm. At any rate, the game is gone.

I was able to discover some troves of tickets in the wind up of the game - 55 in total. Players scratching that many tickets should expect a return approaching the overall numbers for the game. Given that the Grand Prize winners win a much lower percentage of the pot than Lotto games, one should expect that a higher percentage of winnings are returned to the winners of smaller prizes. This proved to be the case for me. My total return was 65.45% of my investment versus the published return of 64.95%. One in every 3.24 tickets was a winner versus the published number of 3.27. One can't get much closer that that.

My current assessment of active games follows:

$3	2178	Slots	New
$20	2168	Cash Club	New
$20	2172	Super Set For Life	New
$3	3027	Bingo	Very Good
$5	2135	Cross Tripler	Very Good
$10	3070	Bingo Multiplier	Very Good
$10	2054	Royale	Very Good
$1	2152	Fiesta Treas	Good
$3	2080	Scrabble	Good
$5	2138	Bingo Doubler	Good
$5	2164	Holiday Win	Good
$5	2086	Ruby 7's	Good
$5	2126	Sizzling 5's	Good
$10	2130	Bigger Spin Win	Good
$10	2170	Cross Deluxe	Good
$20	2052	Supreme	Good
$3	3029	Bingo	Neutral
$3	3227	Cross Word	Neutral
$3	2142	Pac Man	Neutral
$3	2167	Peppermint	Neutral
$3	2158	Strike Spare	Neutral
$4	1175	Cash For Life	Neutral
$5	2098	Bling	Neutral
$10	1926	Instant Gift Pack	Neutral
$10	2162	Super Money	Neutral
$20	2156	Celebrate 2020	Neutral
$20	2169	Festive Fest	Neutral
$30	2055	Triple Million	Neutral
$50	2159	Classic Extra	Neutral
$2	2149	Movie Money	Poor
$2	2161	Ontario Love	Poor
$5	3101	The Big Spin	Poor
$5	2166	Wild Cards	Poor
$10	2129	25x Multiplier	Very Poor
$1	2160	Jewel Jackpot	Terrible
$2	2163	Stock Stuff	Terrible
$3	3225	QFG Crossword	Terrible

It does strike me that there appears to be more big ticket games ($10 and up) than what was the case a five years ago when this blog began. I'm going to run a comparison for discussion in the next update.

Happy Scratching

Doug

Christmas Instant Game Ratings

What follows is my current evaluation of all Instant Games. Remember that my ratings focus upon the percentage of Grand Prizes remaining in a game versus the percentage of the float that I estimate remains to be sold.

For example, More Lucky Lines, the top rated game, has all of its Grand Prizes of $75,000 left to be claimed and I estimate that 83% of the ticket float has been sold. That means that your chances to win a Grand Prize are 4 times greater than when the game began. Still unlikely, but these games give you the chance to play games with the best chance to win. The odds never change in the Lotto Games, only the size of the Grand Prize.

With that in mind, here are the current ratings as you pick up tickets for stocking stuffers:

$3

2144

More Lucky Lines

Top Rated

$10	2170	Cross Deluxe	Very Good
$10	2054	Royale	Very Good
$3	3027	Bingo	Very Good

$20	2052	Supreme	Good
$10	2129	25x Multiplier	Good
$10	2130	Bigger Spin Win	Good
$10	2162	Super Money	Good
$5	2093	Cross Tripler	Good
$5	2086	Ruby 7's	Good
$5	2126	Sizzling 5's	Good
$3	2142	Pac Man	Good
$3	2080	Scrabble	Good

$50	2159	Classic Extra	Neutral
$30	2051	Multi Million	Neutral
$30	2055	Triple Million	Neutral
$10	2157	Cash Out	Neutral
$5	2138	Bingo Doubler	Neutral
$5	2098	Bling	Neutral
$5	2135	Cross Tripler	Neutral
$5	2164	Holiday Win	Neutral
$5	3101	The Big Spin	Neutral
$3	3029	Bingo	Neutral
$3	3227	Cross Word	Neutral
$2	2149	Movie Money	Neutral

$20	2156	Celebrate 2020	Poor
$20	2169	Festive Fest	Poor
$10	1926	Instant Gift Pack	Poor
$4	1175	Cash For Life	Poor
$3	2167	Peppermint	Poor
$3	2158	Strike Spare	Poor
$2	2161	Ontario Love	Poor
$1	2152	Fiesta Treas	Poor
$1	2160	Jewel Jackpot	Poor

$3

3225

QFG Crossword

Very Poor

$2

2163

Stock Stuff

Terrible

If you're out looking for inexpensive tickets, avoid the Xmas themed Stocking Stuffer game. It's the worst game still being sold. Instead, choose 3027 Bingo or More Lucky Lines (if you can find any).

One last caution: if you're in the market for expensive tickets, exercise caution with the $50 Classic Extravaganza. The OLG is promoting this game with advertising. The audience may be under the impression that players receive seven $10 tickets for $50. This is not the case. If it were, I'd be asking my mom for an advance on my allowance to buy more. The game is just like any other. Your chances of winning a prize are 1 in 3.75 and the house take is 29.95% of all sales. There are seven tickets to scratch but the outcome for the package is predetermined. There are multiple games on each ticket which means that there is lots of action before you learn if your package was a winner. It is akin to getting more bang for your buck with a $5 Bingo Doubler versus a $3 Bingo ticket. Now, if you happen to have 7 grandkids and you want to give them the impression that Grandpa bought each of them a $10 Scratch Ticket, then by all means buy a package, open it up, and distribute the tickets as you please. Just don't be under the illusion that doing so is the same as buying 7 individual $10 tickets in other games. Cross Deluxe or Royale are the best games for the high end player. 

Merry Christmas to everyone. I'll be back next week with a breakdown of my mission to find and scratch as many More Lucky Lines tickets as I can find. If you can find any in your store, pick them up. The retailers will tell you that the game has been canceled. Not true - keep hunting. 

Doug

Lucky Lines - Game No 2144

The recommended game for play continues to be More Lucky Lines. One hundred and seventy-five of the 908 top prizes have been claimed. This suggests that 19% of the tickets remain to be sold. The reason that the game is recommended is that all three of the $75,000 Grand Prizes remain outstanding.

This means that your chances of winning a Grand Prize stand at one in 200,000 as opposed to one in a million at the outset of the game.

The game itself is very horizontal in its structure. This is to say that the majority of prizes are of the small variety. This is quite different from a game like LottoMax where there is one winner and everyone else fights over scraps. Your chances in that game of winning $20 are over 80-1. In a game like More Lucky Lines your return should mirror the published information. There is one winning ticket in every 3.27 tickets sold and the overall return is 64.95%. The more tickets one buys, the more likely it is that your results will mirror those numbers. I have purchased seven tickets so far. Four of them were winners returning a total of $22. Based on the numbers, I should have expected to have 2 winners and a total of $14. The game is flattened even further by having a second prize of only $5000. Most $3 games like this one have second prizes of $25,000.

The good news is that with this sort of churn, I can continue to reinvest winnings in pursuit of those three outstanding Grand Prizes. With a chance to win of one in 200,000, and with 7 tickets purchased, my chances were one in 30,000.




But there is a problem: the tickets are very hard to find. Every store I go into tells me that the game has been cancelled. This is not true, as of today. I estimate that 19% of the tickets remain to be sold which represents over 600,000 tickets. But the OLG is not providing the sellers with any more tickets. I've asked my local sellers to ask the OLG person why they are not providing them with tickets for this game. They look at me like I'm a martian.

There are five reasons why an existing game can be canceled. Here they are:

1. Game is sold out.

2. All top prizes are claimed for games with $100,000 or greater top prizes.

3. Average weekly sales reflect significantly decreased customer demand and a new replacement game is planned.

4. Quality issue with game in market.

5. Security issue with game in market.

Experience tells me that if the OLG were to cancel this game now, only reason number 3 could apply. The wicked aspect of this is that sales are largely a function of availability. The OLG can argue that the game is no longer popular as there are no tickets being sold. It's a self fulfilling prophecy if you don't offer the tickets for sale. The conundrum is that  the OLG has sold over two million tickets for this game and they have yet to give away a Grand Prize. If you were to buy tickets to a raffle and found out later that no prize was given away, how would that sit with you?

I imagine that inside the bowels of OLG headquarters there is thinking going on that goes as follows:

1. If every ticket for this game was to be sold, the profit would be $3,303,339. 
2. As of today, 81% of the tickets have been sold (2,545,000) with an expected profit of $2,675,748. 
3. It is expected that with that volume of tickets sold, at least 2 of the 3 Grand Prizes should have been claimed. 
4. If the game is canceled today, there would be an extra $225,000 added to the profit for the game ($75,000 x 3) as those prizes would remain with the OLG.
5. The total return on the tickets not yet sold should be $630,000. But, with the 3 outstanding prizes still up for grabs, the OLG will have to pay off 3 - $75,000 winners in addition to all of the other winners. 
6. By canceling the game now and not selling the remaining tickets, the profit for the game will be increased by 10%. 

Do you see the ethical dilemma? I suspect that the OLG has a blind spot here based on what I have seen before in similar circumstances. In general, tickets begin to become scarce once 90% of the tickets have been sold. The scarcity here began when slightly more than 20% of the tickets remained.

My advice is to get out there now and try to find tickets for this game before the bean counters at OLG put their interests ahead of yours. Let me know how you make out and, as always, only play within your personal budget. The odds are always against you.


Doug

Xmas 2019 Instant Game Review

Given that we are approaching the 2019 Christmas season, I thought that I would provide an update on all of the current OLG Instant Games.

There have been some articles in the Sun this week on the OLG, it's Sunshine List employees and its executive compensation. I'll be commenting on those subjects in addition to further Instant Game updates as we approach the time when Instant Game sales reach their zenith.

Cheers.

Cost	Name	Game	Details	Recommendation
$1.00	Fiesta Treas	2152	New game.	Neutral
$1.00	Jewel Jackpot	2160	Game progressing normally.	Neutral
$2.00	Ontario Love	2161	Only 1 grand prize and 1 second prize left.	Caution
$2.00	Stock Stuff	2163	Slight edge to players.	Good
$3.00	Bingo	3027	57% of game sold; 8 of 10 grand prizes left, 1 of 7 second prices left.	Good
$3.00	More Lucky	2144	23% of game remains; all 3 grand prizes remaining, 2 of 4 second prizes left.	Best Play
$3.00	Peppermint	2167	69% of game sold; 1 of 3 grand prizes left.	Poor
$3.00	QFGCrossword	3225	37% of game remaining; 23% of grand prizes and 40% of second prizes.	Poor
$3.00	Scrabble	2080	Game has sold 12% of tickets without surrendering a grand or second prize.	Good
$3.00	Strike Spare	2158	56% of float sold; 1 of 3 grand prizes and 4 of 10 second prizes left.	Poor
$3.00	Words Friends	2146	12% of game left; all grand prizes and second prizes have been claimed.	Terrible
$4.00	Cash for Life	1175	61% of the game has been sold. A vertical game . 42% of Prizes left.	Poor
$5.00	Bingo Doubler	2138	65% of game sold; claimed prizes in line.	Neutral
$5.00	Bling	2098	67% of game sold; claimed prizes in line.	Neutral
$5.00	Chill Play	2148	40% of game sold; 6 of 10 $100k prizes left, 5 of 6 $50k prizes left.	Good
$5.00	Cross Tripler	2093	Less than 10% of game left. Tickets will be hard to find. 3 of 15 grand prizes left.	Good
$5.00	Cross Tripler	2135	New game	Neutral
$5.00	Holiday Win	2164	61% of game sold; 4 of 7 grand prizes left, both $25k second prizes left.	Poor
$5.00	Ruby 7's	2086	31% of game left; 5 of 10 grand prizes and 1 of 3 second prizes left.	Neutral
$5.00	The Big Spin	3101	75% of game remains; all 8 Grand Prizes remain.	Good
$10.00	25xMultiplier	2129	44% of game remaining; 4 of 8 $250k grand prizes left.	Poor
$10.00	Bigger Spin	2125	Game verging on being pulled; 1 of 6 grand prizes left.	Poor
$10.00	Bigger Spin	2130	Game just getting underway; all 6 grand prizes remaining.	Neutral
$10.00	Cash Out	2157	15% of game remaining; 1 of 5 $250k prizes remain.	Poor
$10.00	Cross Delux	2114	Only 6% of game remain. Tickets will be scarce. 1 of 6 grand prizes remain.	Poor
$10.00	Cross Delux	2170	86% of game remains; 88% of grand prizes remain, 1 of 2 $25k second prizes remain.	Neutral
$10.00	Instant GP	1926	New game, only 6% sold, all grand and second prizes remain.	Neutral
$10.00	Royale	2054	45% of game remaining, 8 of 10 $1m grand prizes remain, 1 of 2 $500k second prizes.	Very Good
$20.00	Celebrate 2020	2156	Only 8% of game sold but 2 of 5 grand prizes claimed and both second prizes claimed.	Terrible
$20.00	Festive Font	2169	80% of game remains, 4 of 5 $250k grand prizes remain in addition to second prize.	Neutral
$20.00	Supreme	2052	72% of game remains, 4 of 10 $2m grand prizes remain, 2 of 5 $200k second prizes.	Very poor
$30.00	Multi Million	2051	23% of game sold, 2 of 10 $2.5m prizes remain, 1 of 5 $250k second prizes.	Poor
$50.00	Classic Extra	2157	75% of game remains; 6 of 7 grand prizes of $500k left and 1 of 4 $250k second prizes.	Good