Ontario 49 - Final Report

My 10 week trial of Ontario 49 yielded a return of $62 versus an expected return of $38. Nothing to complain about but I still lost $38.

The chances of winning anything more that $10 in a 100 ticket trial is very small and I did not defy those odds. I achieved the high return by hitting 3 correct on four separate occasions. I would have expected to do so only twice.

There was an unusual event that took place during the trial. You have one chance in 14 million to win a Grand Prize of $2 million. There was about 14 million tickets sold over the course of the trial which should have produced one winner. It turned out that there were two - and both hit on the same draw. As a result, those two lucky souls had to split the $2 million.

It is quite a handy little rule as I expect that the 14 million tickets issued represented about $12 million in revenue (allowing for free ticket redemption). From that 12 million, about $6 million would have been profit. Had the OLG paid each winner $2 Million, they would have reduced their profit to $4 million. Had the two winners done so on different draws within the sample, that would have been true. So, the OLG increased its profit over the sample period by 30% by having that little innocuous rule in place.

The same rule is in place for the second prize of $50,000. In our sample period, that prize was won 4 times over twenty draws versus an expectation of 6 times. The four winners all won on separate draws. I think that making them split that prize is chintzy on behalf of the OLG. Your chances to win the $50,000 are one in 2.3 million. Not very likely and I have to split the teeny prize?


My next experiment is going to be Daily Grand. I am headed to the USA for a few days next week. I plan to blow my lottery ticket budget on Powerball tickets that week and I intend to buy a few Scratch tickets this week.

Tune back in later for an explanation of Daily Grand.


Scratch Ticket Recommendations

Recommended
$3 Bingo 3026
$4 Cash For Life 1174 (not 1175, a new version)
$5 White Diamond 2095
$20 Colos Casino 2140


Games to Avoid
$3 Cash Words 2141
$3 Poker 2134


Doug

Ontario 49 Update

I am now 8 weeks into my 10 week Ontario 49 trial. The game's biggest difference when compared to Lottario is that the Grand Prize of $2,000,000 does not increase when it is not won like Lottario does. In the latter game, the odds to win the Grand Prize are 1 in 4 million. The Grand Prize starts at $250,000 and increases the longer it goes unclaimed. Sales increase by about 40% per week as the pot increases. It never got over $750,000 during my trial. In Ontario 49, the chances of winning are 1 in 14 million. With two draws a week and a fixed prize of $2,000,000 one would think that the number of tickets sold would remain constant and that is exactly what happens. What is noticeable is that the Saturday sales are larger than the Wednesday sales by 15%. Wednesday sales are about 80,000 per draw and the Saturday sales are 92,000 on average. Given that the pot is split between all winners, I would recommend only playing the game on Wednesdays. Your chances of splitting the pot are reduced by 15% by doing so.

As expected, with ticket sales of less than 100,000 per draw, it is unlikely for the jackpot to be won for any given draw. In fact, it has not been won over the course of the 16 draws that I have played. This is not surprising. At the rate that tickets are sold I would only expect to see the jackpot won once every year and a half.

Moving down a prize level, the chances of winning the second prize are 1 in 2.3 million. With a prize of $50,000, which is a discount of the true odds by a factor of 47! Further, you have to split that unlikely prize with any other winners. Cheap! In the 16 draws of the sample period that prize has been claimed 4 times. None of those four had to split the prize.

My expected returns for this sample run is $35 from the $100 invested. Any prize of 4 or above has less a small chance to occur in a sample of 100 tickets. Barring a miracle I'm expecting to win 12 Free Plays, 1 x $3 for 2 of 6 plus the bonus, and two $10 prizes for having three correct. My method for turning the Free Plays into $1 prizes is to reduce my 5 line purchase by the number of Free Plays. In that way the Free Play becomes worth $1. I'm doing fairly well so far with 10 Free Plays, 3 - $3 prizes and 3 - $10 Prizes. That $46 return has already surpassed my expectations.


Scratch Tickets

The current recommended games are:

$3 Bingo 3028
$4 CFL 1174
$5 The Big Spin 2109
$10 250 Grand 2111

Games to avoid are:

$3 Poker 2134
$3 Sweet Cash 2076
$10 Cross Delux 2113


Back in two weeks with the final tally's of the trial.


Doug

Lottario Trial Summary

The eleventh and final week was a miss. I hit the key numbers 18 times and the Bonus number twice. The 18 main numbers produced five lines with two numbers, eight with one, and seven with no numbers. The bonus number hit one of the zeros yielding one free ticket which turned into nothing the following week.

The carry over jackpot was hit three times yielding a payoff of $241,067 which is less than one would win by hitting the jackpot without a carry-over by oneself. I wonder if being that lucky still results in cursing your luck to have to split the prize three ways?

My estimation is that the total sales for the carry-over was roughly 40% higher than when there is no carry-over. Given that Lottario is a minor game for OLG, there must be quite a few people who must be playing games only with carry-overs. That's a smart strategy.

The last annual report from the OLG explained, in part, its failure to meet its revenue targets by the fact that there were a low number of carry-over Lotto Max jackpots. When that pot grows so do the numbers of sales - exponentially. There must be lots of groups who sit on the sidelines waiting for carry-over jackpots and they make their plays only on those draws.

Trial Results

I played 222 lines in total. From that total I won $5 once, $4 - 5 times, and a free play 13 times. Twelve of those were used to reduce my cost for the next week. Therefore, my total return was $37 from $111 played or 33%.

Based upon actual odds, the expected return was 13.6 Free Plays, 4.5 lines with 3 correct ($4), and .4 lines with 3 correct plus the bonus ($5) and a .3 percent chance of winning $10 for having four correct. Nothing else had any significant chance. The total projected return was therefore $37. I came out exactly where I expected to be.

These games produce an overall lower return than scratch tickets due to the nature of the game. Any lotto game includes an oversized jackpot. If you don't win it, it is very hard to meet the expected return.

My next trial is going to be Ontario 49. I'm curious to see how it compares to Lottario.

Scratch Tickets

Recommended Games: $3 Bingo 3028, $4 Cash For Life 1174, $5 Cross Tripler 2092, $5 The Big Spin 2109.

Games to Avoid: $3 Crossword 3223, $20 Monopoly 2112.

The $20 Monopoly game is run on an interprovincial basis. 25% of the tickets remain outstanding and there are zero grand prizes left to claim. Be smart!


OLG Modernization

I am not a big fan of the Sunshine List. When it came into being only a small number of people were earning over $100,000. Nowadays teachers and police officers flood the list. The qualifying number should be increased.

Regardless, the OLG has 416 people on the list. It had 418 last year and 411 the year before. Of those people, 23 earned in excess of $200,000. I'd love to know what all these folks do. The OLG has divested itself of all its casinos and slot palaces. It has handed all of the monies going to horse racing to the Woodbine Entertainment Group, and it is trying to offload its lotto sales to a third party. What exactly will there be left for anyone to do? We know that the folks who were never going to meet Sunshine threshold were packaged off to the new casino owners who had to promise to pay its new employees the same way they had been paid. That allowed the OLG to distance itself from the bloodletting that is coming. But it appears that the high end folks are heretofore safely ensconced.

Congrats go to Stephen Rigby who finally earned more than Rod Phillips managed to pull down as the CEO at OLG. Rigby earned $765,000 which would be 2-3 times what he was paid as the President of the Canada Border Services Agency. Rod Phillips, whose career path took him from Chief of Staff for the Mayor of Toronto, to the OLG where his mentor (Paul Godfrey) circumvented the Government's edict to freeze senior provincial officials salary by awarding him an annual bonus that effectively doubled his income. Phillips then followed Godfrey to the National Post where the pair of them oversaw very painful staff reductions. Bonuses well earned no doubt. Rod is now Ontario's Minister of the Environment. His time is now spent sniping at his federal counterpart while fleshing out his plan for how Ontario is going to meet its targets for CO2 emissions. He likely earns less than half of what he earned at the helm of the OLG for doing a job that will impact all Ontarians for the next millennium. Nice to be an insider.



Doug

Lottario Trial - Week 10

A disappointing week yielded 15 hits and three bonus numbers. That produced one lonely Free Play. The good news for players was that the $440,000 Jackpot was unclaimed. This weeks jackpot is estimated to be $730,000. As a result, I am going to extend my trial by one more week or until the Grand Prize is won.

Total cash prizes won last week totalled $623,500. Further, an additional $190,000 was added to the jackpot and some $185,000 went into the coffers of the OLG. The carry over is worth a stab so I will stick around for another week.

Instant Games

Recommended games are: $2 Burger Bucks #2062, $3 Lights Camera #2088, $3 Lucky 8's #2115, $4 Cash For Life #1174, $5 Bingo Doubler #2094, $5 Cross Tripler #2092, $5 Mission Money #2067, $5 Power 5's #2085, and $5 Big Spin #2109.

Games to avoid are: $3 Scrabble #2079, and $10 Cross Deluxe #2065.

OLG Modernization

There were lots of stories this week that featured local mayors slobbering over the OLG and the cheques they received for hosting slots in their community.

Two Points: the local community is contractually obligated to hold a press conference each time it receives a cheque. They then proceed to tell us that their community would not have an arena or a park if it were not for the slots in their town. Whooey to that, I say. The second point is that the community receives approximately a nickel rebate for every dollar that is consumed by the slots.

Imagine if I gave you a dollar. In exchange I give you a nickel and you have to throw a shindig to thank me for the nickel. That's the sham that we are following. Attention local media: either ask some tough questions at these lame events or decide to cover something more meaningful.


Pretty nice outside. Will we be blessed by winter once more? I say yes.


Doug

Lottario Trial - Week 9

This week produced 18 hits which is two more that expected. On the downside, I only had the Bonus number once. Fortunately, the sole bonus landed on a line with none producing a Free Play.

The 18 correct numbers produced seven lines with one correct, four lines with two correct, and one line with 3 correct - worth $4. My total return was $5 heading into the last week of the trial. At this point I am still a few numbers below expected so I'm thinking that I'm due another good week.


Scratch Ticket Update

These are pretty good days on the scratch ticket front. The recommended games are: $2 Burger Bucks #2062, $3 Lights Camera #2088, $4 Cash For Life #1174, $5 Bingo Doubler #2094, $5 Cross Tripler #2092, $5 Mission Money #2087, $5 Power 5's #2085, $5 Big Spin #2109.

Games to avoid: $3 Scrabble #2079, #10 Bigger Spin #2124, #10 Cross Deluxe #2065. A warning to players: the largest prize left to claim in Cross Deluxe is $10,000! They're selling fools gold when it comes to this game

OLG Modernization

Here is an interesting story: http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/a-retired-couple-explain-exactly-how-they-used-math-skills-and-a-lottery-loophole-to-win-dollar26-million-in-9-years/ar-BBV413u?li=AAggFp5&ocid=UE01DHP .

Granted, this story is from the USA and not Canada but it gives you the indication that circumstances can creep up that are a benefit to players. I'll be switching to a new trial foe next week. Think I'll check to see if the OLG offers any similar games.

I was also entertaining this week when the Ontario Government announced new funding of $10 million to the thoroughbred breeding group. This same group is currently suing the Government over the distribution of slots money. I wonder if there is any connection.

People are going crazy in social media claiming that the Government cares more about race horses than it does about autistic children or class size. I'm weak on the details but will do some research and report on it next week.

Happy springtime.

Doug

Lottario Trial - Week 7&8

The last two weeks have been a tale of taking different routes to the same destination. In Week 7 I hit 21 times with three bonus numbers. That is five hits over the expected number of 16. Unfortunately, the best I could muster was 2 correct on any line which I managed to do 6 times! The only good news was that my three bonus numbers landed on 2 of the 5 lines for which I had none correct. Final result - 2 Free Plays.

In Week 8 famine struck when I only hit 10 times which matches the low for the trial. The best result was 2 correct on each of two lines. The good news is that I hit the Bonus number 7 times which yielded 3 Free Plays.

The Jackpot was hit in each week which means that it again is estimated to be $250,000 for this week. I need a little bit of luck to improve my overall results with two weeks left in the experiment.

Scratch Ticket Update

Recommended Games: $3 Lights Cameras #2088, $4 Cash For Life #1174, $5 Mission Money #2087, $5 Power 5's #2085, $5 Big Spin Win #2109.

Games to Avoid: $3 Scrabble #2079, $5 King #2084, $10 Bigger Spin #2124.


OLG News

Thanks to AJ for a couple of interesting comments left on the Lottario Week 5 Trail blog entry. Some first hand knowledge of what is going on in Wasaga Beach.

I was particularly irked this week when the OLG issued a Press Release praising itself for having been awarded the World Lottery Association's prize for the Best Overall Responsible Gaming Program. First of all, there is a word in the English language for self-congratulations and it is not complimentary. Secondly, the WLA is nothing but an association of Casino companies. It's like RJ McDonalds being awarded a prize for the best cigarette company looking into the causes of lung cancer by the association of cigarette companies!

The OLG is not alone in this type of chicanery. Casinos all across the USA and Canada spend lots of effort trying to earn social capital from operating what is a vice. I don't have a problem with casinos existing but let's be honest. Be who you are and quit trying to convince me that there is something noble in what you do.

The Medical Officer of Health for Toronto issued a report in November of 2012 that included recommendations as to what any approved casino in the GTA should include IF it truly cared about responsible gaming. Here are the recommendations:

1. Limiting hours. Close the casino 6 hours per day. 
2. Slow down machine speed. 
3. Eliminate casino loyalty programs. 
4. No ATMs on the floor. 
5. No credit or holding accounts. 
6. Reduce maximum bet size. 
7. Mandating a daily loss maximum. 
8. Implement a strong self-exclusion program. 
9. Issue monthly patron statements showing losses and details of playing history. 
10. No alcohol on the casino floor. 

Now, how many of these ideas (each of which would be effective) has the OLG and its gang of casino operators put in place? Correct! And yet they are judged to be the best in class? To quote a famous Twitter contributor, "SAD!"

Spring is coming folks.


Doug

Lottario Trial - Week 6

My bad Week 5 was followed up with a lucky Week 6. For only the second time in six weeks, I achieved the expected result of 16 numbers. The running total now is 13, 20, 13, 15, 10, 16. I had the all-important Bonus number 3 times.

With that I managed to have one line with 3 correct and a second with 3 correct plus the bonus. My total cash was $9. Yes readers, I am aware that that is still a $1 loss. Still, if I can churn at a rate of only $1 per week while trying to hit a jackpot, I can last a long time.

Also on the good news front, the Jackpot was not won again. The OLG is estimating a jackpot this week of $600,000. The OLG does a poor job of estimating the jackpot. Last week their estimate was $350,000 and it turned out to be $407,000. Working backwards, that indicates total ticket sales of 880,000. They should be able to come closer that $50,000 on that volume. Maybe they just want to be certain to never over estimate the jackpot. I can see why that might be the case.

We are now getting to a good point to play. With a chance to win of one in 4 million per line, every $1 has a one in two million chance to win. Because I buy $10 worth of tickets my chances are a robust one in 200,000. I won't be holding my breath yet but another couple of weeks of jackpot roll-over and I may have to expand my level of play.


Instant Games

A new game called Power 5's #2085 has hit the shelves. No Grand Prizes have yet to be claimed and sales are brisk. Other recommended games are: Cash For Life #1174, 5 Bingo Doubler #2094, Cross Tripler #2092, and Mission Money #208. Sadly, no $3 games are recommended at this time.

Games to avoid are: Scrabble #2079, Big Spin #2104, and Bigger Spin #2124.


OLG News

Long time contributor, Lloyd, dropped me a line saying that the construction site in Pickering looks to be a little behind schedule. When completed it will include a casino, a hotel, and restaurants.

This is the casino that the Great Canadian Gaming Company agreed to operate alongside the Slots at Ajax Downs. They are less than ten minutes from each other. Ontario's Environment Minister, Rod Phillips, former CEO at the OLG, wrote the rules stating that only one casino could operate in the area but when a frakas erupted that put the Liberals in a tough spot the same Mr Phillips rode in on his white horse to save the day. No doubt there was a financial settlement agreed to. I would love to know what it was. I'd submit a Freedom of Information request but the answer would be that the Great Canadian Gaming Company is a private corporation and outside the rules of FOI. Still, it may be worth a shot.

Best

Doug